Financial Crisis

[AnnyLing]

AnnyLing if you are referring to ronz28, in what way do you think he has he " lost a case " ?

Like many others on this thread he simply posted information from another source

for readers to consider ?

He did not just post information from another source but twisted and even forged the information thus giving it a complete different meaning which suits his and probably your views. When i take my car to the workshop and the mechanic tests the engine for any problems i do not call my husband and report with excitement *engine failure expected!*

[midas]

AnnyLing if you are referring to ronz28, in what way do you think he has he " lost a case " ?

Like many others on this thread he simply posted information from another source

for readers to consider ?

He did not just post information from another source but twisted and even forged the information thus giving it a complete different meaning which suits his and probably your views. When i take my car to the workshop and the mechanic tests the engine for any problems i do not call my husband and report with excitement *engine failure expected!*

So please enlighten us.........what are your views regarding the

Chinese real estate market ?

[churchill]

and where are the deflation/inflation sages that invested with Buffet and Paulson / whilst expecting gold to go lower but believing in the long run it would go higher /

Is today the right day to invest or tomorrow ? I expect never because they will always be waiting for a better price /

and said the best trade was to invest with hedge funds MAN /to trade volatility ?

Is it still going to happen - How long do we all sit on our hands waiting ? When is thye next Black Monday ? October 27Th /

Have your investors made money over the last 6 months ?

Most investors have lost faith and will wait this finacial crisis is sorted /

and most will never again trust bankers or so called finacial wizards /

I am sure that if you look at some posters they would have all options covered and will always be able to refer back to a previous post and say ' I told you '

Whilst some have stuck to their guns and done very well - So better to trade or not ?

[cloudhopper]

Excellent thesis IMO

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/will-quantitative-easing-spur-inflation.html

[flying]

Excellent thesis IMO

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/will-quantitative-easing-spur-inflation.html

Yes interesting article.

Jobs report out today for US also.....As the USD showed

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100806-714557.html

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Edited August 7, 2010 by flying

[bartender100]

Didn't know before that 12 has a channel on YT, here ya go.

I hope this guy has no access to weapons

[flying]

Fed Easing Debate Intensifies as Economic Data Point to Slowing Recovery

The Federal Reserve may return to “unconventional” monetary stimulus as early as next week’s policy meeting as the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The firm lowered its forecasts for gross domestic product and raised its estimate for the jobless rate as growth slows and the “reacceleration in U.S. output” expected for 2011 is made more doubtful by “heighted Congressional resistance” to additional fiscal stimulus, Goldman said in a note today.

The Fed is likely to begin with reinvesting the proceeds from maturing securities in its existing portfolio of mortgage- backed debt in other debt instruments, Goldman economists said. The measures could also include asset purchases, such as Treasuries, or a more “ironclad” commitment to low short-term policy rates, Goldman said. The central bank’s policy-setting open market committee meets Aug. 10 in Washington.

“This would be a ‘baby step’ in the direction of renewed unconventional easing, although it would probably be packaged as a decision to prevent a gradual tightening of the overall stance,” analysts led by chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius in New York said.

Policy makers bought $1.7 trillion of mortgage and government debt from March 2009 through March of this year to keep borrowing costs low while the economy recovered from the worst recession since the 1930s. Should the central bank decide to resume purchasing fixed-income securities it would buy “at least $1 trillion,” they said.

Goldman lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2011 to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent and said that the unemployment rate will return to 10 percent by early next year and remain at that level for the balance of the year.

Employers eliminated 131,000 positions in July after a revised reduction of 221,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department said today. The median forecast of 84 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a reduction of 65,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 9.5 percent.

Edited August 7, 2010 by flying

[AnnyLing]

AnnyLing if you are referring to ronz28, in what way do you think he has he " lost a case " ?

Like many others on this thread he simply posted information from another source

for readers to consider ?

He did not just post information from another source but twisted and even forged the information thus giving it a complete different meaning which suits his and probably your views. When i take my car to the workshop and the mechanic tests the engine for any problems i do not call my husband and report with excitement *engine failure expected!*

So please enlighten us.........what are your views regarding the

Chinese real estate market ?

My viewa do not count but perhaps the facts of this study does.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/35504814/China-Real-Estate-Survey

[midas]

So please enlighten us.........what are your views regarding the

Chinese real estate market ?

My viewa do not count but perhaps the facts of this study does.

You must be joking right ? The source of the data are the Chinese real estate developers themsleves and

the report has been prepared by a bankster

And you talk about " forging the information to suits ones views " ha ha ha

And I wonder how much leveraged risk with exposure to the chinese real estate market Standard Chartered Bank holds on their books ?

Edited August 8, 2010 by midas

[midas]

I would never trust the opinion of Standard Chartered Bank ever again based on the recent reputation of banksters whilst the INDEPENDANT National Bureau of Economic Research also reported on the Chinese real estate market in July this year and came up with some startling findings :-

The scale of speculation in real estate is enormous. There is a total of 64.5 million apartments and houses lying purchased but vacant in urban China, about five times the surplus in the USA, according to an economist from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Real housing prices have risen by 140% since the first quarter of 2007. In the first quarter of this year, house prices rose by a record 41%, since when it appears that prices have stabilised but not fallen. Price increases have not been driven by any shortage in housing. In five of the eight markets that the authors of the report studied, the net new number of housing units provided since 1999 was at least as large as the net increase in the number of households. In the three others, the relatively modest gap does not explain the huge rise in home prices.

In Beijing, there has been an almost eight-fold increase in land values since 2003, but since the end of 2007 land prices have nearly tripled. The impact of rising land prices on home and apartment prices has been equally great. From 2003 to 2007, the ratio of land-to-house values hovered between 30% and 40%, but since then it has doubled to just over 60%. The report also found that when a central government state-owned enterprise (SOE) was a winning bidder for land, prices rose by about 27% more than if they had not been involved, thus showing the influence that SOEs bring to bear on land values, an influence that grew in 2009 when they became more active. A separate report shows that so far this year 82% of Beijing's land auctions have been won by SOEs.

[ronz28]

U.S. is on track for hyperinflation and probably won't see the deflation that Japan experienced such as the decline in the NiKkei from almost 39,000 to about 7,000.

The website that sponsors this clip has other interesting videos in the same vein. To me, the videos are thought provoking although a little over the top, but holding gold and silver in a diversified portfolio is still probably a good thing.

Edited August 8, 2010 by ronz28

[flying]

more unemployment visuals

From....http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/employment-report-20k-jobs-lost-97.html

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 20,000 in January. The economy has lost almost 4.0 million jobs over the last year, and 8.42 million jobs since the beginning of the current employment recession. (note: job losses were 7.2 million before benchmark revision).

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

[midas]

more unemployment visuals

From....http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/employment-report-20k-jobs-lost-97.html

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

So much for Joe Biden ‘Summer of Recovery’

[AnnyLing]

So please enlighten us.........what are your views regarding the

Chinese real estate market ?

My viewa do not count but perhaps the facts of this study does.

You must be joking right ? The source of the data are the Chinese real estate developers themsleves and

the report has been prepared by a bankster

And you talk about " forging the information to suits ones views " ha ha ha

And I wonder how much leveraged risk with exposure to the chinese real estate market Standard Chartered Bank holds on their books ?

I did not expect any other answer from you but would like to draw your attention to the fact that i provided a link and did not forge any contents as Ronz did. Besides, I could not care less whether your assumption *Standard Bank leveraged risk* is correct or not. What matters to me is that you, and a bunch of others, have been dead wrong spreading your paranoid ideas and forecasts during the last two years.

[midas]

So please enlighten us.........what are your views regarding the

Chinese real estate market ?

My viewa do not count but perhaps the facts of this study does.

You must be joking right ? The source of the data are the Chinese real estate developers themsleves and

the report has been prepared by a bankster

And you talk about " forging the information to suits ones views " ha ha ha

And I wonder how much leveraged risk with exposure to the chinese real estate market Standard Chartered Bank holds on their books ?

I did not expect any other answer from you but would like to draw your attention to the fact that i provided a link and did not forge any contents as Ronz did. Besides, I could not care less whether your assumption *Standard Bank leveraged risk* is correct or not. What matters to me is that you, and a bunch of others, have been dead wrong spreading your paranoid ideas and forecasts during the last two years.

Oh really ? please give examples ?

[midas]

Headline for Tim Geithner last week " Tim Geithner hails the recovery "

meanwhile in the REAL world :-

Food Stamp Usage Hits 18 Sequential Record High At 40.8 Million

[Abrak]

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

I really like this second chart (although as it shows 'employment' rather than 'unemployment' it is a bit confusing at first.)

Apart from showing the US is up shit creek, I think the most interesting thing about the chart is the 'dates' of the 'three' longest 'employment recessions' in the past 70 years. 'They are in perfect chronological order, the last 3 recessions prior to this one.'

What this clearly shows is that the US economy has been showing increasing structural decline as an engine for increasing employment for 30 years now.

[Abrak]

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned this idea that is doing the rounds.

http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise-from-obama/

I know it is a blog but it is from a fairly well regarded journalist and the underlying idea seems to be getting some support from the major investment banks (not surprisingly.)

The proposal is both absurd as well as highly imaginative.

The concept is to use the unlimited funding of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (both of which are already bankrupt) to write off negative equity in existing mortgages and refinance them. This would benefit at least 15m american households. (well the banks as well of course.) It is actually quite a clever idea in its own way (although unamerican, anticapitalist, moral hazard and deeply unfair.)

[midas]

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned this idea that is doing the rounds.

http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise-from-obama/

I know it is a blog but it is from a fairly well regarded journalist and the underlying idea seems to be getting some support from the major investment banks (not surprisingly.)

The proposal is both absurd as well as highly imaginative.

The concept is to use the unlimited funding of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (both of which are already bankrupt) to write off negative equity in existing mortgages and refinance them. This would benefit at least 15m american households. (well the banks as well of course.) It is actually quite a clever idea in its own way (although unamerican, anticapitalist, moral hazard and deeply unfair.)

Pigs at the trough

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled

With Billions In Underwater CRE Loans

in case taxpayers are wondering where the next fiscal stimulus will end up going, wonder no more: "The new investments would be specifically used to pay down debt, resulting in lower loan-to-value ratios of existing loans as well as improved debt coverage ratios." As the CRE lobby concludes: "By giving lenders the ability to responsibly refinance debt and rebalance capital reserve levels, the CRE Act will provide the opportunity for additional lending capacity that will help stimulate lending to small businesses, job formation and economic growth in communities across the country."

In other words, it is time for taxpayers to help purge banks of existing toxic debt, so that these same banks can resume lending like drunken sailors, in unviable commercial real estate projects just to guarantee that the next major market blow up also destroys the regional banking system, in addition to the TBTFs

Edited August 9, 2010 by midas

[lannarebirth]

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned this idea that is doing the rounds.

http://blogs.reuters...ise-from-obama/

I know it is a blog but it is from a fairly well regarded journalist and the underlying idea seems to be getting some support from the major investment banks (not surprisingly.)

The proposal is both absurd as well as highly imaginative.

The concept is to use the unlimited funding of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (both of which are already bankrupt) to write off negative equity in existing mortgages and refinance them. This would benefit at least 15m american households. (well the banks as well of course.) It is actually quite a clever idea in its own way (although unamerican, anticapitalist, moral hazard and deeply unfair.)

Pigs at the trough

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled

With Billions In Underwater CRE Loans

in case taxpayers are wondering where the next fiscal stimulus will end up going, wonder no more: "The new investments would be specifically used to pay down debt, resulting in lower loan-to-value ratios of existing loans as well as improved debt coverage ratios." As the CRE lobby concludes: "By giving lenders the ability to responsibly refinance debt and rebalance capital reserve levels, the CRE Act will provide the opportunity for additional lending capacity that will help stimulate lending to small businesses, job formation and economic growth in communities across the country."

In other words, it is time for taxpayers to help purge banks of existing toxic debt, so that these same banks can resume lending like drunken sailors, in unviable commercial real estate projects just to guarantee that the next major market blow up also destroys the regional banking system, in addition to the TBTFs

I think its a scheme to create new loans because a HUGE percentage of sub-prime and No Doc loans are un-repossessable. Either they were not properly assigned and there is no creditor with standing or they have illegal clauses in the contract or they were written fraudulantly. If it happens it may look like a big bailout, but in fact I think it is a means to put the screws to debtors with whom they have no real current repossessive rights.

[jcon]

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned this idea that is doing the rounds.

http://blogs.reuters...ise-from-obama/

I know it is a blog but it is from a fairly well regarded journalist and the underlying idea seems to be getting some support from the major investment banks (not surprisingly.)

The proposal is both absurd as well as highly imaginative.

The concept is to use the unlimited funding of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (both of which are already bankrupt) to write off negative equity in existing mortgages and refinance them. This would benefit at least 15m american households. (well the banks as well of course.) It is actually quite a clever idea in its own way (although unamerican, anticapitalist, moral hazard and deeply unfair.)

Pigs at the trough

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled

With Billions In Underwater CRE Loans

in case taxpayers are wondering where the next fiscal stimulus will end up going, wonder no more: "The new investments would be specifically used to pay down debt, resulting in lower loan-to-value ratios of existing loans as well as improved debt coverage ratios." As the CRE lobby concludes: "By giving lenders the ability to responsibly refinance debt and rebalance capital reserve levels, the CRE Act will provide the opportunity for additional lending capacity that will help stimulate lending to small businesses, job formation and economic growth in communities across the country."

In other words, it is time for taxpayers to help purge banks of existing toxic debt, so that these same banks can resume lending like drunken sailors, in unviable commercial real estate projects just to guarantee that the next major market blow up also destroys the regional banking system, in addition to the TBTFs

I think its a scheme to create new loans because a HUGE percentage of sub-prime and No Doc loans are un-repossessable. Either they were not properly assigned and there is no creditor with standing or they have illegal clauses in the contract or they were written fraudulantly. If it happens it may look like a big bailout, but in fact I think it is a means to put the screws to debtors with whom they have no real current repossessive rights.

Lanna, I see your point, but isn't that still effectively a bailout, indirect or otherwise? Also, there were no-doc CRE loans? Freaking disaster.

The Hamburglar is sneaky, indeed.

[midas]

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned this idea that is doing the rounds.

http://blogs.reuters...ise-from-obama/

I know it is a blog but it is from a fairly well regarded journalist and the underlying idea seems to be getting some support from the major investment banks (not surprisingly.)

The proposal is both absurd as well as highly imaginative.

The concept is to use the unlimited funding of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (both of which are already bankrupt) to write off negative equity in existing mortgages and refinance them. This would benefit at least 15m american households. (well the banks as well of course.) It is actually quite a clever idea in its own way (although unamerican, anticapitalist, moral hazard and deeply unfair.)

Pigs at the trough

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled

With Billions In Underwater CRE Loans

in case taxpayers are wondering where the next fiscal stimulus will end up going, wonder no more: "The new investments would be specifically used to pay down debt, resulting in lower loan-to-value ratios of existing loans as well as improved debt coverage ratios." As the CRE lobby concludes: "By giving lenders the ability to responsibly refinance debt and rebalance capital reserve levels, the CRE Act will provide the opportunity for additional lending capacity that will help stimulate lending to small businesses, job formation and economic growth in communities across the country."

In other words, it is time for taxpayers to help purge banks of existing toxic debt, so that these same banks can resume lending like drunken sailors, in unviable commercial real estate projects just to guarantee that the next major market blow up also destroys the regional banking system, in addition to the TBTFs

I think its a scheme to create new loans because a HUGE percentage of sub-prime and No Doc loans are un-repossessable. Either they were not properly assigned and there is no creditor with standing or they have illegal clauses in the contract or they were written fraudulantly. If it happens it may look like a big bailout, but in fact I think it is a means to put the screws to debtors with whom they have no real current repossessive rights.

Lanna, I see your point, but isn't that still effectively a bailout, indirect or otherwise? Also, there were no-doc CRE loans? Freaking disaster.

The Hamburglar is sneaky, indeed.

talking about fast food did you see this ? This is because

they wouldn't give her McNuggets at 6 am !!

Watch what she does in the end !!!!

Edited August 11, 2010 by midas

[flying]

talking about fast food did you see this ? This is because

they wouldn't give her McNuggets at 6 am !!

:lol: dang she was hungry

Edited August 11, 2010 by flying

[midas]

talking about fast food did you see this ? This is because

they wouldn't give her McNuggets at 6 am !!

:lol: dang she was hungry

LOL

meanwhile flying I thought this list might of interest to you :-

Unofficial Problem Bank List July 23, 2010

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/07/unofficial-problem-bank-list-july-23.html

[BlackJack]

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned this idea that is doing the rounds.

http://blogs.reuters...ise-from-obama/

I know it is a blog but it is from a fairly well regarded journalist and the underlying idea seems to be getting some support from the major investment banks (not surprisingly.)

The proposal is both absurd as well as highly imaginative.

The concept is to use the unlimited funding of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (both of which are already bankrupt) to write off negative equity in existing mortgages and refinance them. This would benefit at least 15m american households. (well the banks as well of course.) It is actually quite a clever idea in its own way (although unamerican, anticapitalist, moral hazard and deeply unfair.)

Pigs at the trough

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled

With Billions In Underwater CRE Loans

in case taxpayers are wondering where the next fiscal stimulus will end up going, wonder no more: "The new investments would be specifically used to pay down debt, resulting in lower loan-to-value ratios of existing loans as well as improved debt coverage ratios." As the CRE lobby concludes: "By giving lenders the ability to responsibly refinance debt and rebalance capital reserve levels, the CRE Act will provide the opportunity for additional lending capacity that will help stimulate lending to small businesses, job formation and economic growth in communities across the country."

In other words, it is time for taxpayers to help purge banks of existing toxic debt, so that these same banks can resume lending like drunken sailors, in unviable commercial real estate projects just to guarantee that the next major market blow up also destroys the regional banking system, in addition to the TBTFs

I think its a scheme to create new loans because a HUGE percentage of sub-prime and No Doc loans are un-repossessable. Either they were not properly assigned and there is no creditor with standing or they have illegal clauses in the contract or they were written fraudulantly. If it happens it may look like a big bailout, but in fact I think it is a means to put the screws to debtors with whom they have no real current repossessive rights.

Lanna, I see your point, but isn't that still effectively a bailout, indirect or otherwise? Also, there were no-doc CRE loans? Freaking disaster.

The Hamburglar is sneaky, indeed.

talking about fast food did you see this ? This is because

they wouldn't give her McNuggets at 6 am !!

Watch what she does in the end !!!!

put a bounty on them

[ronz28]

Ireland Depression?

Ireland Crisis

[badge]

"The Secret of Oz" by Bill Still

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D22TlYA8F2E

The economy of the U.S. is in a deflationary spiral. Nothing can stop it -- except monetary reform.

1. No more national debt. Nations should not be allowed to borrow. If they want to spend, they have to take the political heat right away by taxing.

2. No more fractional reserve lending. Banks can only lend money they actually have.

3. Gold money is NOT the answer. Historically gold ALWAYS works against a thriving middle class and ALWAYS works to create a plutocracy.

4. The total quantity of money + credit in a national system must be fixed, varying only with the population.

[midas]

"The Secret of Oz" by Bill Still

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D22TlYA8F2E

The economy of the U.S. is in a deflationary spiral. Nothing can stop it -- except monetary reform.

1. No more national debt. Nations should not be allowed to borrow. If they want to spend, they have to take the political heat right away by taxing.

2. No more fractional reserve lending. Banks can only lend money they actually have.

3. Gold money is NOT the answer. Historically gold ALWAYS works against a thriving middle class and ALWAYS works to create a plutocracy.

4. The total quantity of money + credit in a national system must be fixed, varying only with the population.

Surely this is what the REAL financial crisis is and the sub-prime debacle

was only a bad smell coming from the rotting corpse ?

So much for calling it a " recession "

[ronz28]

Is it gold or gold plated steel?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fake-african-gold-turns-out-be-dust-upon-arrival-uae-millions-ethopian-central-bank-bullion-

[Abrak]

An economist called James Bullard recently wrote a paper in which he criticizes Bernanke's policy of announcing that zero percent interest rates will be maintained for quite some time. He essentially believe that Fed policy risks creating deflation. The interesting thing about James Bullard is that he is a member of the FOMC which decides and formulates US monetary policy. So such a paper would seem unusual.

Below is a summary of the paper from the FT which also includes a link to the paper itself. One thing I would add is that the 'unintended equilibrium' of Japan is described as unstable but it is only unstable in one direction - namely the downside. Because it is an equilibrium it is very hard to get away from, so you need to avoid it.

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2010/08/04/feds-bullard-is-concerned-that-the-us-may-be-headed-towards-a-bad-equilibrium-like-japan/