Financial Crisis

[yoshiwara]

yes exactly - $120 million ha ha ha !

When this happens i wonder how many bottles of water, guns and tins of food you will get for it then ?

Sorry but the copy I had in mind for you was from a poster shop.

[12DrinkMore]

i have to ask this question because although i have written options

in the past ,i dont know anything about the derivatives they are talking about here

" The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… That equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations ".

This threat from derivatives has been mentioned since the beginning of this thread but don't these derivatives have expiry dates ? I mean how can they continue to be threat since 2008 and when will they expire?

http://www.zerohedge...esentation-ever

From one of Naam's favourite sources.

Dyler Turdon

all that will be left will be the USD and Gold

Hmm, I'm pretty sure that quite a few buildings will still be standing, and probably the Bernank will still be pulling and pushing his levers.

I'm also quite confident that I'll be able to buy beer at roughly the same price of 50 THB/bottle.

In fact, I am reasonably sure that the only thing that will get reset is my alarm clock and put it into snooze mode. The same as every other day this year.

[midas]

i have to ask this question because although i have written options

in the past ,i dont know anything about the derivatives they are talking about here

" The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… That equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations ".

This threat from derivatives has been mentioned since the beginning of this thread but don't these derivatives have expiry dates ? I mean how can they continue to be threat since 2008 and when will they expire?

http://www.zerohedge...esentation-ever

From one of Naam's favourite sources.

Dyler Turdon

all that will be left will be the USD and Gold

Hmm, I'm pretty sure that quite a few buildings will still be standing, and probably the Bernank will still be pulling and pushing his levers.

I'm also quite confident that I'll be able to buy beer at roughly the same price of 50 THB/bottle.

In fact, I am reasonably sure that the only thing that will get reset is my alarm clock and put it into snooze mode. The same as every other day this year.

Dyler Turdon didnt write the report itself. That was Raoul Pal. It sounds like he knows what he is talking about......

"

Raoul Pal has previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world.

Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. Other stop-off points on the way were Natwest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes for The Global Macro Investor. In 2008, Raoul also helped design the TV programme Million Dollar Traders for the BBC, and trained the participants in investment and risk management strategy. His articles have appeared several times in the press and he has also taken part in TV interviews."

here is an interview with him on CNBC

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1609605072

Edited June 1, 2012 by midas

[midas]

i have to ask this question because although i have written options

in the past ,i dont know anything about the derivatives they are talking about here

" The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… That equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations ".

This threat from derivatives has been mentioned since the beginning of this thread but don't these derivatives have expiry dates ? I mean how can they continue to be threat since 2008 and when will they expire?

http://www.zerohedge...esentation-ever

Naam do you know the answer to my question about expiry dates?

Ok even if the outstanding risks are $ 700 trillion today , wont these risks expire through effluction

of time and surely after the AIG debacle and the European debacle no one would be stupid enough

to still be writing new derivatives of this magnitude today ?

" According to the most recent report from the U.S. government's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the total value of derivatives has increased approximately 1000% since 1996, and 250% since 2006 (see graph on page 12 of the OCC report). Derivatives continued their rapid climb even in the midst of the global recession that started in 2008. Most disturbing is the fact that 95% of all U.S. derivatives are monopolized by just five megabanks and their holding companies."

Edited June 1, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

for the very last time... people who know a <deleted> what exactly

derivatives are should listen what Captain Picard has to say:

[Naam]

Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives

on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes for The Global Macro Investor.

he should have worked harder then he could write for Thaivisa without charging any money.

The Global Macro Investor is an elite subscription based research service written and published by Raoul Pal.

Edited June 1, 2012 by Naam

[midas]

for the very last time... people who know a <deleted> what exactly

derivatives are should listen what Captain Picard has to say:

never mind I have sent an e-mail to the author himself to ask for further information

not everyone agrees with your view or dismisses the risk as easily as you do

and i thought at least just sometimes we could use this thread

to learn and ask questions

Evidently i was wrong

No wonder Alex Lah is no longer here

Edited June 1, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

for the very last time... people who know a <deleted> what exactly

derivatives are should listen what Captain Picard has to say:

never mind I have sent an e-mail to the author himself to ask for further information

not everyone agrees with your view or dismisses the risk as easily as you do

and i thought at least just sometimes we could use this thread

to learn and ask questions

Evidently i was wrong

No wonder Alex Lah is no longer here

-i don't dismiss risks easily,

-explaining the thousands of different existing derivatives is impossible, even listing groups/families of derivatives is a herculean task,

-any question concerning "expiration of derivatives" would have to specify which ones of the existing thousands and even then could not be easily (without ifs and buts) answered,

-derivatives are basically contracts between two parties (each party can consist of an unlimited number of participants). one cannot add up the value of both parties (that's what the gloom&doomers do to bullshit their followers).

-a lot of derivatives expire and/or are dissolved with a miniscule value of the nominal total changing actually hands (see recent credit default swaps on Greek sovereign bonds), or are even dissolved with the result being plus/minus zero.

the complexity, variety and fancy values make derivatives the preferred topic of doom&gloomers who know that realists cannot fight their three-sentence-trillions-bullshit with a three-sentence clarifying answer.

the afore-mentioned is a generalising basic information. anything beyond that requires many dozens of Ph.D. dissertations of many dozen doctorands or habilitations of aspiring professors.

now go ahead and ask a specific question concerning a specific derivative and i will try my best to give you a specific answer.

[churchill]

China PMI: action stations

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/06/01/china-pmi-action-stations/#axzz1wWzI89LS

Euro area unemployment rate at 11.0%

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-01062012-AP/EN/3-01062012-AP-EN.PDF

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold .. or is there a plan ...

Has cash-strapped Spain asked the IMF for a huge €300BILLION bailout?

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2153106/Has-cash-strapped-Spain-asked-IMF-huge-300BILLION-bailout-IMF-denies-rumours-contingency-plans.html#ixzz1wX2WYkj4

Is that enough .. how will it solve anything .. more money down the drain so where does the money come from ...

co-ordinated global qe , .....inflation .. .. then what ?

[Naam]

co-ordinated global qe , .....inflation .. .. then what ?

then gold USD @ 58,000/ounce as once mentioned in Null-and-Void Hedge, only 56,449 dollars to go.

[churchill]

co-ordinated global qe , .....inflation .. .. ../..//public/style_emoticons/default/blink.png then what ?

then gold USD @ 58,000/ounce as once mentioned in Null-and-Void Hedge, only 56,449 dollars to go.

Yes would solve a few problems ..

Spanish focus ..... what a mess

Spain at the back of the grid

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/06/01/1026351/spain-at-the-back-of-the-grid/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Naam]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

[churchill]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

I suppose cash will increase in value if no more is printed , asset prices will decline as people need to raise cash .. but debts will increase as cash values go up ... and as debt far overways credits it seems sensible to attack from the other side .. devaluing the currency to decrease debts and increase assets .. ?? ie printing

[highchol]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

come to think of it why the name Fiat money, bit unfair on Fiat they actualy have made the odd good car. What a bout say Lada money...dont remember them being worth much

[Naam]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

I suppose cash will increase in value if no more is printed , asset prices will decline as people need to raise cash .. but debts will increase as cash values go up ... and as debt far overways credits it seems sensible to attack from the other side .. devaluing the currency to decrease debts and increase assets .. ?? ie printing

you can't devalue a currency without distributing the "printed paper" to people who spend it and cause inflation. the much demonised quantitative easing had until now no effect whatsoever on inflation.

[Naam]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

come to think of it why the name Fiat money, bit unfair on Fiat they actualy have made the odd good car. What a bout say Lada money...dont remember them being worth much

does that mean you consider the money in your pocket not being worth much?

[churchill]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

I suppose cash will increase in value if no more is printed , asset prices will decline as people need to raise cash .. but debts will increase as cash values go up ... and as debt far overways credits it seems sensible to attack from the other side .. devaluing the currency to decrease debts and increase assets .. ?? ie printing

you can't devalue a currency without distributing the "printed paper" to people who spend it and cause inflation. the much demonised quantitative easing had until now no effect whatsoever on inflation.

This has been discussed before ,.. the most effective way for qe to work ... I'm sure it's coming but in a different guise ....

$ are short ..The US dollar shortage in global banking ..http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0903f.pdf

[churchill]

Linda Yueh ‏@lindayueh

EU's top economic policymaker Rehn: euro area is in real danger of disintegrating unless it revamps its fiscal and economic ties

who said I told you so ..

[Naam]

euro area is in real danger of disintegrating unless...

= genius #1

i told you so

= genius #2

water freezes when temperature drops below freezing point

= genius #3

two plus two equals four

= genius #4

[Naam]

= hot Genie!

[churchill]

I prefer http://www.google.co...29,r:0,s:0,i:73

ps .. preparations are being made .. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/06/01/1027141/xgd-crncy/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Edited June 1, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

I prefer http://www.google.co...29,r:0,s:0,i:73

ps .. preparations are being made .. http://ftalphaville...._medium=twitter

Betty is indeed good looking but her profile makes me wonder why she tried to stop that 18-wheeler truck with her face.

[highchol]

Spain & Greece need cash that they cannot afford to borrow .... do they sell their gold...

they might sell it secretly to the Bilderbergs and Illuminati for worthless fiat money to redeem their worthless fiat debt and then Spaniards and Greeks will live happily ever after.

come to think of it... why is it so difficult for debtors to borrow worthless fiat money? has any of the worthless fiat paper promulgators an explanation? could it be that some mentally deranged people exist who think that worthless fiat paper is not totally worthless?

come to think of it why the name Fiat money, bit unfair on Fiat they actualy have made the odd good car. What a bout say Lada money...dont remember them being worth much

does that mean you consider the money in your pocket not being worth much?

money in my pocket I wish

actualy I got Mrs Highchol has got a bag of rubles which are worth 10% less than they were a month ago. I Dont think ladas even depreciate that fast.

[yoshiwara]

[yoshiwara]

i have to ask this question because although i have written options

in the past ,i dont know anything about the derivatives they are talking about here

" The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… That equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations ".

This threat from derivatives has been mentioned since the beginning of this thread but don't these derivatives have expiry dates ? I mean how can they continue to be threat since 2008 and when will they expire?

http://www.zerohedge...esentation-ever

Naam do you know the answer to my question about expiry dates?

Ok even if the outstanding risks are $ 700 trillion today , wont these risks expire through effluction

of time and surely after the AIG debacle and the European debacle no one would be stupid enough

to still be writing new derivatives of this magnitude today ?

" According to the most recent report from the U.S. government's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the total value of derivatives has increased approximately 1000% since 1996, and 250% since 2006 (see graph on page 12 of the OCC report). Derivatives continued their rapid climb even in the midst of the global recession that started in 2008. Most disturbing is the fact that 95% of all U.S. derivatives are monopolized by just five megabanks and their holding companies."

i have to ask this question because although i have written options

in the past ,i dont know anything about the derivatives they are talking about here

" The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… That equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations ".

This threat from derivatives has been mentioned since the beginning of this thread but don't these derivatives have expiry dates ? I mean how can they continue to be threat since 2008 and when will they expire?

http://www.zerohedge...esentation-ever

Naam do you know the answer to my question about expiry dates?

Ok even if the outstanding risks are $ 700 trillion today , wont these risks expire through effluction

of time and surely after the AIG debacle and the European debacle no one would be stupid enough

to still be writing new derivatives of this magnitude today ?

" According to the most recent report from the U.S. government's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the total value of derivatives has increased approximately 1000% since 1996, and 250% since 2006 (see graph on page 12 of the OCC report). Derivatives continued their rapid climb even in the midst of the global recession that started in 2008. Most disturbing is the fact that 95% of all U.S. derivatives are monopolized by just five megabanks and their holding companies."

You should actually try to read the whole article and also try to understand it. You have just seized upon total value but what the article seeks to do is examine net credit exposure of institutions. The second point to note is that derivatives perform a very important function in offsetting risk. Whether in futures or options (do you know the difference) they are important tools. The churn through a company will often cancel out through hedging against company trades they have facilitated (Carl Levin in particular doesn't understand how a derivative works). one of the criticisms of OTC trades was that they didn't go through a clearing house. Those 5 banks may in effect be providing an equivalent facility. Does their net exposure threaten their capital requirements?

[churchill]

Chinese Purchasers Default on Commodity Contracts

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/06/03/chinese-purchasers-default-on-commodity-contracts/

[churchill]

but the start of a kick start ...

China’s Chongqing Is First City To Offer Car Subsidy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-04/china-s-chongqing-is-first-city-to-offer-car-subsidy.html

[churchill]

Linda Yueh ‏@lindayueh

Netherlands sells €1.11bn of 86-day bills at avg yield of 0%

Who doesn't think that funds raised by the North are not going under the table to the south ....

[Naam]

Linda Yueh ‏@lindayueh

Netherlands sells €1.11bn of 86-day bills at avg yield of 0%

Who doesn't think that funds raised by the North are not going under the table to the south ....

sure! the south is especially interested in bills with an 86-day maturity. longer maturities would cause a problem as the south has not enough storage place for its cash.

[churchill]

Sure .. well I wasn't being totally serious ..

as it is a Pimms weekend ..

But why do these wnkers keep coming .

Linda Yueh ‏@lindayueh

Van Rompuy: EU isn't solely responsible for slowing growth