Financial Crisis

[Naam]

On the 25th January 2009 I started this topic out of frustration. Where are we nearly five years later???

The Financial Crisis is over, well more or less, there is still a lot of hangover, but the liquidity is flowing around the markets thanks to ZIRPS and QE's and the rest.

For you to say that it is over, then what exactly was the definition of “ financial crisis “ in your mind in 2009?

the definition was that for 9 months till mid/end march 2009 most of us, including my [not so] humble self, were scared sh*tless. then markets left and right skyrocketed and the sh*tless feeling was replaced / superseded by the great and many opportunities to rake in profits.

personally i don't remember any of my 35 investor ears which provided that many possibilities to make money like 2009.

[midas]

On the 25th January 2009 I started this topic out of frustration. Where are we nearly five years later???

The Financial Crisis is over, well more or less, there is still a lot of hangover, but the liquidity is flowing around the markets thanks to ZIRPS and QE's and the rest.

For you to say that it is over, then what exactly was the definition of “ financial crisis “ in your mind in 2009?

the definition was that for 9 months till mid/end march 2009 most of us, including my [not so] humble self, were scared sh*tless. then markets left and right skyrocketed and the sh*tless feeling was replaced / superseded by the great and many opportunities to rake in profits.

personally i don't remember any of my 35 investor ears which provided that many possibilities to make money like 2009.

But that was only through massive debt? What happens to that debt now as it gets even bigger. Does creating a mountain of debt represent a recovery?

[Naam]

On the 25th January 2009 I started this topic out of frustration. Where are we nearly five years later???

The Financial Crisis is over, well more or less, there is still a lot of hangover, but the liquidity is flowing around the markets thanks to ZIRPS and QE's and the rest.

For you to say that it is over, then what exactly was the definition of “ financial crisis “ in your mind in 2009?

the definition was that for 9 months till mid/end march 2009 most of us, including my [not so] humble self, were scared sh*tless. then markets left and right skyrocketed and the sh*tless feeling was replaced / superseded by the great and many opportunities to rake in profits.

personally i don't remember any of my 35 investor ears which provided that many possibilities to make money like 2009.

But that was only through massive debt? What happens to that debt now as it gets even bigger. Does creating a mountain of debt represent a recovery?

you are right! we cannot call the markets exploding a recovery. you are also right that the mountain of debt increased and will increase even more. that's why i deemed (and still deem) it necessary to "make hay as long as the sun shines" and try hard to move profits plus a part of the assets out of the (future) debt firing range into less vulnerable asset classes.

summary: the financial crisis that scared most of us sh*tless is presently not visible, but it still exists.

[Kwasaki]

For you to say that it is over, then what exactly was the definition of “ financial crisis “ in your mind in 2009?

the definition was that for 9 months till mid/end march 2009 most of us, including my [not so] humble self, were scared sh*tless. then markets left and right skyrocketed and the sh*tless feeling was replaced / superseded by the great and many opportunities to rake in profits.

personally i don't remember any of my 35 investor ears which provided that many possibilities to make money like 2009.

But that was only through massive debt? What happens to that debt now as it gets even bigger. Does creating a mountain of debt represent a recovery?

you are right! we cannot call the markets exploding a recovery. you are also right that the mountain of debt increased and will increase even more. that's why i deemed (and still deem) it necessary to "make hay as long as the sun shines" and try hard to move profits plus a part of the assets out of the (future) debt firing range into less vulnerable asset classes.

summary: the financial crisis that scared most of us sh*tless is presently not visible, but it still exists.

" jai yen yen " buddy you can't take it with you, you can only leave it to you beloved Thai Mrs.

[midas]

For you to say that it is over, then what exactly was the definition of “ financial crisis “ in your mind in 2009?

the definition was that for 9 months till mid/end march 2009 most of us, including my [not so] humble self, were scared sh*tless. then markets left and right skyrocketed and the sh*tless feeling was replaced / superseded by the great and many opportunities to rake in profits.

personally i don't remember any of my 35 investor ears which provided that many possibilities to make money like 2009.

But that was only through massive debt? What happens to that debt now as it gets even bigger. Does creating a mountain of debt represent a recovery?

you are right! we cannot call the markets exploding a recovery. you are also right that the mountain of debt increased and will increase even more. that's why i deemed (and still deem) it necessary to "make hay as long as the sun shines" and try hard to move profits plus a part of the assets out of the (future) debt firing range into less vulnerable asset classes.

summary: the financial crisis that scared most of us sh*tless is presently not visible, but it still exists.

yes it might not be visible in terms of dollars and cents (that's only because they can print as much as they want -for now, anyway ) but the delusional thinking and dishonesty which contributed to the 2008 break down is still very much in view.

[mccw]

Bail ins for all suggests IMF :

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2013/IMFbailinC.html

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[mccw]

The Japanese trade deficit has widened to a record last month I'm reading. Weaken yen/ higher import costs the chief culprit- the bad out weighing the good of more compatible exports.

What does this mean for the Abenonmics/ super QE? What options are left? Do you hear the Tumpets of Doom ???

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[Naam]

Bail ins for all suggests IMF :

http://danielamerman.com/articles/2013/IMFbailinC.html

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yawwnnn...

[midas]

Food prices rising 30 times faster than ordinary inflation

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/food-prices-rising-30-times-faster-than-ordinary-inflation-29783361.html

Edited November 26, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

Food prices rising 30 times faster than ordinary inflation

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/food-prices-rising-30-times-faster-than-ordinary-inflation-29783361.html

New figures show that the rate of inflation in Irish supermarkets was running at 2.9pc in the 12 weeks leading up to early November.

That is roughly 30 times faster than the overall inflation rate across the economy.

food up 2.9% year on year is a horrible thought. these poor Irish people...

[mccw]

Food prices rising 30 times faster than ordinary inflation

 

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/food-prices-rising-30-times-faster-than-ordinary-inflation-29783361.html

New figures show that the rate of inflation in Irish supermarkets was running at 2.9pc in the 12 weeks leading up to early November.

 

That is roughly 30 times faster than the overall inflation rate across the economy.

food up 2.9% year on year is a horrible thought. these poor Irish people...  

 

With the prices of utilities up around 10% every year couple with the food inflation it is serious shizer for some people who's incomes have not risen at all or very much below the inflation in essentials for cost of living.

This from sky news UK for example I just happen across after reading Midas' link:

""""The cold winter saw 31,100 excess deaths in 2012/13 - a rise of 29% on the previous year, figures show.

The majority of the deaths in England and Wales were among the elderly with over-75s accounting for 25,600, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The sharp increase came in a bitterly cold start to the year - with the coldest March since 1962, which saw an average monthly temperature of just 2.6C (36.7).

The figures have been released amid warnings from senior doctors that A&E departments are to face their worse winter ever and concerns that pensioners and vulnerable families are being forced to chose between "heating and eating".

""""

-sky news app

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[cheeryble]

Do you hear the Trumpets of Doom

We've been hearing then continuously from you for a long time Mccw thankyou for the warning........though happily or unhappily the bull hasn't been listening.

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[cheeryble]

With the prices of utilities up around 10% every year couple with the food inflation it is..............

FACT CHECK

This article from he Irish Times seems to completely disagree with you it says there is outright DEFLATION in Ireland.

"Euro zone inflation at lowest level in almost four years

Falling fuel and telecoms prices help slow inflation to 0.7 per cent

Topics:

Business

Economy

European Central Bank

Eurostat

Fri, Nov 15, 2013, 15:13

First published:

Fri, Nov 15, 2013, 15:13

0

Falling fuel and telecoms prices pulled euro zone inflation down to its lowest level in almost four years in October, data showed today, fleshing out the surprise drop that prompted the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to a record low.

Consumer price inflation in the 17 nations sharing the euro was 0.7 per cent last month, the EU’s statistics office Eurostat said, confirming its earlier estimate that is far below the ECB target of just under 2 per cent.

On an annual basis, falling fuel costs for heating and transport, as well as telecoms, had the biggest impact on the inflation rate, offsetting rises in electricity and rent.

Heating oil fell by the most in October compared to the year earlier period, followed by fuels and then telecoms, Eurostat said.

After Eurostat released its flash reading on October 31st, the ECB cut its main refinancing rate on November 7th by 25 basis points to 0.25 per cent, warning of the risk of “a prolonged period of low inflation” as the euro zone struggles to recover from recession.

The inflation rate dropped below 1 per cent for the first time since February 2010. Stripping out volatile energy and food and tobacco costs, inflation was 0.8 per cent in October.

Europe is yet to face a negative inflation rate or a Japanese-style deflationary spiral when falling prices weaken demand, leading to wage cuts and even lower prices.

But consumer prices actually fell in October from September, by 0.1 per cent, Eurostat said in its more detailed reading that laid out the pace of prices rises and falls across all sectors.

Making the ECB’s job all the harder, inflation varied widely across the euro zone, ranging from outright deflation in Ireland, Cyprus and Greece to inflation of 1.2 per cent in Germany, 1.7 per cent in Finland and 2.2 per cent in Estonia, the highest annual rate in the region.

France, Belgium and Slovakia registered inflation at same level as the euro zone’s average rate of 0.7 per cent. (Reuters)

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[Naam]

Cheeryble

Making the ECB’s job all the harder, inflation varied widely across the euro zone, ranging from outright deflation in Ireland, Cyprus and Greece to inflation of 1.2 per cent in Germany, 1.7 per cent in Finland and 2.2 per cent in Estonia, the highest annual rate in the region.

France, Belgium and Slovakia registered inflation at same level as the euro zone’s average rate of 0.7 per cent. (Reuters)

it is not nice spoiling with hard facts interesting gloom&doom stories!

[cheeryble]

it is not nice spoiling with hard facts interesting gloom&doom stories!

Mea culpa.......mea Spoilsportus Maximus

Enschuldigung sie bitte geehrter Naam

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Edited November 26, 2013 by cheeryble

[midas]

Do you hear the Trumpets of Doom

We've been hearing then continuously from you for a long time Mccw thankyou for the warning........though happily or unhappily the bull hasn't been listening.

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But the long-term prospect for the bull can't be that stable otherwise you wouldn't even need to think for even a nanosecond as to whether to spend a measly 8000 baht on a vaccination against a potentially lethal disease?

[mccw]

With the prices of utilities up around 10% every year couple with the food inflation it is..............

FACT CHECK

This article from he Irish Times seems to completely disagree with you it says there is outright DEFLATION in Ireland.

"Euro zone inflation at lowest level in almost four years

Falling fuel and telecoms prices help slow inflation to 0.7 per cent

Topics:

Business

Economy

European Central Bank

Eurostat

Fri, Nov 15, 2013, 15:13

First published:

Fri, Nov 15, 2013, 15:13

0

Falling fuel and telecoms prices pulled euro zone inflation down to its lowest level in almost four years in October, data showed today, fleshing out the surprise drop that prompted the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to a record low.

Consumer price inflation in the 17 nations sharing the euro was 0.7 per cent last month, the EU’s statistics office Eurostat said, confirming its earlier estimate that is far below the ECB target of just under 2 per cent.

On an annual basis, falling fuel costs for heating and transport, as well as telecoms, had the biggest impact on the inflation rate, offsetting rises in electricity and rent.

Heating oil fell by the most in October compared to the year earlier period, followed by fuels and then telecoms, Eurostat said.

After Eurostat released its flash reading on October 31st, the ECB cut its main refinancing rate on November 7th by 25 basis points to 0.25 per cent, warning of the risk of “a prolonged period of low inflation” as the euro zone struggles to recover from recession.

The inflation rate dropped below 1 per cent for the first time since February 2010. Stripping out volatile energy and food and tobacco costs, inflation was 0.8 per cent in October.

Europe is yet to face a negative inflation rate or a Japanese-style deflationary spiral when falling prices weaken demand, leading to wage cuts and even lower prices.

But consumer prices actually fell in October from September, by 0.1 per cent, Eurostat said in its more detailed reading that laid out the pace of prices rises and falls across all sectors.

Making the ECB’s job all the harder, inflation varied widely across the euro zone, ranging from outright deflation in Ireland, Cyprus and Greece to inflation of 1.2 per cent in Germany, 1.7 per cent in Finland and 2.2 per cent in Estonia, the highest annual rate in the region.

France, Belgium and Slovakia registered inflation at same level as the euro zone’s average rate of 0.7 per cent. (Reuters)

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Fact check:)

Headline government inflation statistics are not the same as essentials inflation ie utilities and good - also fuel is just now down a touch after years of rising prices at the pumps so a slit drop doesn't equal a great deal in real terms to the squeezed.

(Also the article I quoted was for UK but the effects of stagflation affect most of the wests least well off.

"Deflation" in consumer goods, wages and spending is possible along side inflation in essentials. Your chosen measures and terminology are obsolete.

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[midas]

Food prices rising 30 times faster than ordinary inflation

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/food-prices-rising-30-times-faster-than-ordinary-inflation-29783361.html

New figures show that the rate of inflation in Irish supermarkets was running at 2.9pc in the 12 weeks leading up to early November.

That is roughly 30 times faster than the overall inflation rate across the economy.

food up 2.9% year on year is a horrible thought. these poor Irish people...

Not as bad as Indian food price inflation though..........

Onion prices rose by a massive 323% in September in comparison to the same period last year. Vegetable prices went up by 89.37%

.................and onions are as vital to the Indians diet as rice is here in Thailand

On Indian income this is the stuff that can lead to real discontent……………….

Inflation in India Hits 8-Month High

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/10/15/inflation-in-india-hits-8-month-high/

Edited November 26, 2013 by midas

[mccw]

Also my quotes article was referring mostly to uk pensioners , 25000 of whome perished from the cold last winter. This group are choosing between "heating or eating" as they say; I doubt the price drop of the latest smartphone tarrif affects them too much. Obviously inflation is subjective as to needs each individual and the lowest income % are worst affected. A shocking increase of cold related deaths it looks like to me and rather bad taste to dismiss so many thousands with blanket statics without sparing a thought of few as to the very real situation many are faced with. I know several families under pressure in a similar way as the pensioners are. The UK utilities affects my business and the spiralling cost of living was one of the chief reasons we moved back to Thailand also.

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[i claudius]

I was over in Ireland a few months back ,believe me there was no "stagflation" unless you want to buy non esential electrical and houshold goods ect ,everything that people use to live ,food ,heating oil , gas ,electricity ect ,ect ,had all gone up a lot ,that is a fact ,the govts can spin it anyway they like .

[midas]

Also my quotes article was referring mostly to uk pensioners , 25000 of whome perished from the cold last winter. This group are choosing between "heating or eating" as they say; I doubt the price drop of the latest smartphone tarrif affects them too much. Obviously inflation is subjective as to needs each individual and the lowest income % are worst affected. A shocking increase of cold related deaths it looks like to me and rather bad taste to dismiss so many thousands with blanket statics without sparing a thought of few as to the very real situation many are faced with. I know several families under pressure in a similar way as the pensioners are. The UK utilities affects my business and the spiralling cost of living was one of the chief reasons we moved back to Thailand also.

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It should be interesting to read Naam’s perspective on that one…………. although I already know what it would be

[mccw]

I was over in Ireland a few months back ,believe me there was no "stagflation" unless you want to buy non esential electrical and houshold goods ect ,everything that people use to live ,food ,heating oil , gas ,electricity ect ,ect ,had all gone up a lot ,that is a fact ,the govts can spin it anyway they like .

I agree with you Claudius. By stagflation I mean the stagnation of real economy growth, wages, etc while at the same time suffering the inflation of life's essentials.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

The statistics are clearly compiled to mask what is really happening in the core cost of life.

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[manarak]

I was over in Ireland a few months back ,believe me there was no "stagflation" unless you want to buy non esential electrical and houshold goods ect ,everything that people use to live ,food ,heating oil , gas ,electricity ect ,ect ,had all gone up a lot ,that is a fact ,the govts can spin it anyway they like .

not only that - but the living cost calclations are based on cheap stuff that stays ralatively cheap anyway or gets cheaper as time passes, for example consumer electronics or cheap clothes. Another point is that rental costs for dwellings are currently at rock-bottom levels despite being perceived as expensive, this is due to the current interest rates that are near zero.

Meanwhile, one has to reckon all the above things are stuff that will be worthless in some time. Food turns into poo, any consumer electronics are worthless in 3 to 5 years, and rent and energy are consumed on the spot. But durable wealth, such as real estate moves more and more out of people's reach.

[midas]

I was over in Ireland a few months back ,believe me there was no "stagflation" unless you want to buy non esential electrical and houshold goods ect ,everything that people use to live ,food ,heating oil , gas ,electricity ect ,ect ,had all gone up a lot ,that is a fact ,the govts can spin it anyway they like .

I agree with you Claudius. By stagflation I mean the stagnation of real economy growth, wages, etc while at the same time suffering the inflation of life's essentials.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

The statistics are clearly compiled to mask what is really happening in the core cost of life.

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So far in USA you have food prices going up, incomes not going up and now with Obama care healthy 30-year-old men will be forced to pay health insurance premiums that are 260% higher.

This is going to suck a huge amount of discretionary income out of the economy

[Naam]

Also my quotes article was referring mostly to uk pensioners , 25000 of whome perished from the cold last winter. This group are choosing between "heating or eating" as they say; I doubt the price drop of the latest smartphone tarrif affects them too much. Obviously inflation is subjective as to needs each individual and the lowest income % are worst affected. A shocking increase of cold related deaths it looks like to me and rather bad taste to dismiss so many thousands with blanket statics without sparing a thought of few as to the very real situation many are faced with. I know several families under pressure in a similar way as the pensioners are. The UK utilities affects my business and the spiralling cost of living was one of the chief reasons we moved back to Thailand also.

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It should be interesting to read Naam’s perspective on that one…………. although I already know what it would be

my perspective on people allegedly "frozen to death" is very similar to my perspective on news that in a warehouse, located in Northern Manchurianear the Mongolian border, a bag of rice has toppled.

[Ahnsahn]

my perspective on people allegedly "frozen to death" is very similar to my perspective on news that in a warehouse, located in Northern Manchurianear the Mongolian border, a bag of rice has toppled.

...Naam, you are too much, ... but I enjoy it!

[Naam]

So far in USA you have food prices going up, incomes not going up and now with Obama care healthy 30-year-old men will be forced to pay health insurance premiums that are 260% higher.

This is going to suck a huge amount of discretionary income out of the economy

health insurances in civilised countries are based on socialism. many healthy ones pay for [not so] many [not so] healthy ones. notwithstanding the fact the the 260% are pure refined male bovine feces another fact is the the today healthy 30y old men will be sooner or later 60, 70, 80 or older and depend of young healthy ones to pay with their premiums for the medical treatment of older ones.

that an industrialised country like the "Greatest Nation on Earth™" had/has no mandatory health insurance for each and every citizen (normal since decades in other countries) is a shame.

[Ahnsahn]

So far in USA you have food prices going up, incomes not going up and now with Obama care healthy 30-year-old men will be forced to pay health insurance premiums that are 260% higher.

This is going to suck a huge amount of discretionary income out of the economy

health insurances in civilised countries are based on socialism. many healthy ones pay for [not so] many [not so] healthy ones. notwithstanding the fact the the 260% are pure refined male bovine feces another fact is the the today healthy 30y old men will be sooner or later 60, 70, 80 or older and depend of young healthy ones to pay with their premiums for the medical treatment of older ones.

that an industrialised country like the "Greatest Nation on Earth™" had/has no mandatory health insurance for each and every citizen (normal since decades in other countries) is a shame.

..another great (tellin' it like it is) moment of learning!

[midas]

So far in USA you have food prices going up, incomes not going up and now with Obama care healthy 30-year-old men will be forced to pay health insurance premiums that are 260% higher.

This is going to suck a huge amount of discretionary income out of the economy

health insurances in civilised countries are based on socialism. many healthy ones pay for [not so] many [not so] healthy ones. notwithstanding the fact the the 260% are pure refined male bovine feces another fact is the the today healthy 30y old men will be sooner or later 60, 70, 80 or older and depend of young healthy ones to pay with their premiums for the medical treatment of older ones.

that an industrialised country like the "Greatest Nation on Earth™" had/has no mandatory health insurance for each and every citizen (normal since decades in other countries) is a shame.

The significance to the economy that the "Greatest Nation on Earth™ is industrialised seems much less today than its reliance of never ending consumption by the masses (70% of GDP) to keep its head above water.

Being forced to pay an extra 260% for health-care premiums will make severe dent in the ability of young people to keep buying those new iPhones

See Everything This Mom's Cutting to Pay for Obamacare

http://blog.heritage.org/2013/11/23/see-everything-familys-cutting-pay-obamacare/

Edited November 27, 2013 by midas

[JimGant]

The figures have been released amid warnings from senior doctors that A&E departments are to face their worse winter ever and concerns that pensioners and vulnerable families are being forced to chose between "heating and eating".

Ah, a case for Global Warming. Unfortunately, I guess all those carbon taxes might have been counter productive after all...... An Inconvenient Truth, indeed.