Financial Crisis

[Loptr]

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/10965052/Bank-for-International-Settlements-fears-fresh-Lehman-crisis-from-worldwide-debt-surge.html

The world economy is just as vulnerable to a financial crisis as it was in 2007, with the added danger that debt ratios are now far higher and emerging markets have been drawn into the fire as well, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

Credit spreads have fallen to to wafer-thin levels. Companies are borrowing heavily to buy back their own shares. The BIS said 40pc of syndicated loans are to sub-investment grade borrowers, a higher ratio than in 2007, with ever fewer protection covenants for creditors.

[mccw]

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/10965052/Bank-for-International-Settlements-fears-fresh-Lehman-crisis-from-worldwide-debt-surge.html

The world economy is just as vulnerable to a financial crisis as it was in 2007, with the added danger that debt ratios are now far higher and emerging markets have been drawn into the fire as well, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

Credit spreads have fallen to to wafer-thin levels. Companies are borrowing heavily to buy back their own shares. The BIS said 40pc of syndicated loans are to sub-investment grade borrowers, a higher ratio than in 2007, with ever fewer protection covenants for creditors.

Add to that list of new and worse conditions than last time:

-Already around zero interest rates so little conventional policy space left for western CBs

- much higher western gov Debt levels.

These facts combined with recent law changes lead me to suspect the next crises management tool will be bail-ins across the western world. Probably coupled with massive QE.

I think the now apparent rush to symbolically end QE in the US is in order to be able to reinstate it as a solution at next crises. If it were still in place it could be called a failed policy, but if wound up it could be spun as a success and solution to next wave of collapse.

What all this does to currencies? In my view another 30% drop at least, like last time, but potentially much more if the bail ins cause a loss of faith in western banks as a safe place to store cash.

[Naam]

BIS chief fears fresh Lehman from worldwide debt surge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/10965052/Bank-for-International-Settlements-fears-fresh-Lehman-crisis-from-worldwide-debt-surge.html

The world economy is just as vulnerable to a financial crisis as it was in 2007, with the added danger that debt ratios are now far higher and emerging markets have been drawn into the fire as well, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

Credit spreads have fallen to to wafer-thin levels. Companies are borrowing heavily to buy back their own shares. The BIS said 40pc of syndicated loans are to sub-investment grade borrowers, a higher ratio than in 2007, with ever fewer protection covenants for creditors.

Add to that list of new and worse conditions than last time:

-Already around zero interest rates so little conventional policy space left for western CBs

- much higher western gov Debt levels.

These facts combined with recent law changes lead me to suspect the next crises management tool will be bail-ins across the western world. Probably coupled with massive QE.

I think the now apparent rush to symbolically end QE in the US is in order to be able to reinstate it as a solution at next crises. If it were still in place it could be called a failed policy, but if wound up it could be spun as a success and solution to next wave of collapse.

What all this does to currencies? In my view another 30% drop at least, like last time, but potentially much more if the bail ins cause a loss of faith in western banks as a safe place to store cash.

what currencies do you expect to drop 30%?

[mccw]

^

£ and USD

Against the bht

[mccw]

Euro too

[Naam]

^

£ and USD

Against the bht

that means again the often heard outcries from Brits and Americans "i am going home" or "i am moving to Cambodia".

[Naam]

Euro too

what about cowrie shells?

[mccw]

Euro too

what about cowrie shells?

The price of cowrie shells in euro will rocket; while bht should maintain cowrie shell buying parity with today.

Note; Gold may well increase it's cowrie shell purchasing power.

[SheungWan]

Euro too

what about cowrie shells?

The price of cowrie shells in euro will rocket; while bht should maintain cowrie shell buying parity with today.

Note; Gold may well increase it's cowrie shell purchasing power.

Shell have been doing well lately.

[lannarebirth]

FYI, the long, thin candles burn fastest:

Edited July 14, 2014 by lannarebirth

[MJP]

House price bubble = the British economy.

Help to buy scheme = "I believe it truly is a moronic policy that stands head and shoulders above most of the stupid economic policies I have seen implemented during my 30 years in this business. It ranks above some of Alan Greenspan's very worst blunders." - Albert Edwards, head of global strategy at Société Générale.

[waza]

What do the experts think?

Marc Faber says the stock market is setting up for a decline more painful than the sudden crash of 1987. "I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash," Faber said with a devious chuckle on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "And I suspect it will be even worse."

Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now)

Many stock markets are only marginally off record highs and yet there’s already a growing chorus of calls for a larger correction or crash. Comparisons to 2008, 1999, 1987 and 1929 are all the rage. Marc Faber, aka Dr Doom, appeared on television with a twinkle in his eyes to declare a likely re-run of 1987, but worse. Faber suggested the S&P 500 would fall 30% this year. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesgruber/2014/04/13/why-stocks-wont-crash-for-now/

Why the Next Stock Market Crash Will Happen Any Day Now.....There is overwhelming evidence that the next stock market crash could strike any day now, and a growing number of investors are turning to a noted economist to prepare for the “unthinkable.”
Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/Market-Collapse-Finance-Stocks/2013/03/01/id/492699#ixzz387dyMR6J

Personally I dont have a clue, and my guess is neither does anyone else

[mccw]

After LOS

Nice to get to the root point.

I agree we are on the edge of another down turn. But if so serious that QE or bail in results will be negative for dollar. (Inevitable one or both I am sure)

China will not collapse- they have the authoritarian tools to pump money in to real world economic activities- infrastructure; state companies etc; while US will attempt to pump up financial paper markets destroying the dollar while the real economy implodes. If the US came out with some kind of Roosevelt New Deal program then maybe they would stand a chance- but if the two or more biggest countries embark on same such policies it must be hugely inflationary on commodities which could scupper the whole thing.

If western banks are bailed in then risk is a total loss of faith in our countries as a safe place to store money- the only thing that really saved US UK from Armageddon the last time; the only reason QE did not lead to total currency collapse. Next time they might not be so lucky.

Either way money printing can not be good for USD and a bailin maybe even worse.

Stock crash around the corner - I agree.

Gold up- I think it makes sense.

Yen and dollar both get destroyed at the same time - quite likely.

If things get so bad as you expect do you really expect the companies you are trading through to still exist and honour your bets/ funds on account. If it all unwinds then poof - gone.

[mccw]

If you mean dollar gains value because you are measuring it against US real estate or stocks then yeah you'd right. But when compared to bht or bht assets I doubt QE or bail in currencies would be booming in value against non printing currencies

[AfterLOS]

If you mean dollar gains value because you are measuring it against US real estate or stocks then yeah you'd right. But when compared to bht or bht assets I doubt QE or bail in currencies would be booming in value against non printing currencies

No, its not anything like you're describing ......

When we talk about the US Dollar I'm referring to the US Dollar Index which is comprised of Euro, GBP, Yen, CAD, CHF, Swedish Kronor (did I miss any?) So when I speak generally about the Dollar it is this Index I refer to. However when I take a specific currency pair like dollar yen I will be totally specific as in USDJPY. Dig?

No, I do not mix any FUNDAMENTAL DATA that you brought up in the question with any TECHNICAL DATA the latter being pure PRICE action which is based on HERD psychology and gives a rat's ass about Earnings, who's sleeping with who, who the CEO is, what car he drives, or that the US Govt is in sooooooooo much debt that its currency is going to toilet paper, bla bla bla

[midas]

I almost missed this. It would be so nice even if just sometimes regular readers of the Financial Times who post in this thread (one in particular with name beginning with S ) contributed something like this for our information rather than their incessant trivial and completely irrelevant remarks to other posters

Bank Of England Leads Push For Deposit Confiscation - Japan, China, Russia Against Bail-Ins

Talks under the auspices of the global Financial Stability Board (FSB) over the summer are approaching a key stage as officials aim to clinch an agreement on bail-ins and the bailing in of creditors including depositors of banks.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3f2d6f04-0e9f-11e4-ae0e-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F3f2d6f04-0e9f-11e4-ae0e-00144feabdc0.html%3Fsiteedition%3Duk&siteedition=uk&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2014-07-22%2Fbank-england-leads-push-deposit-confiscation-japan-china-russia-against-bail-ins#axzz385WqhB1z

Edited July 22, 2014 by midas

[jimmiejackson]

Do any of you have any idea what's happening to the Euro/THB rate? The last week it's fallen off a cliff!

Any ideas?

[mccw]

Do any of you have any idea what's happening to the Euro/THB rate? The last week it's fallen off a cliff!

Any ideas?

I think bht got over sold and now NCPO in and stabilised thing, pushing through investment etc then a pull back is under way.

USD and EURO; GBP to a degree but not so markedly as Euro because of local issues in both those economies. Ie sterling positivity and UK data; compared to Euro zone risks in Ukraine possible dangers and Portugal issues amongst other festering problems.

[Naam]

Do any of you have any idea what's happening to the Euro/THB rate? The last week it's fallen off a cliff!

Any ideas?

virtually all major currencies fell vs. Baht this week.

[metisdead]

A number of irrelevant posts have been removed as well as some replies. Some posts in violation of fair use policy have been removed as well, if you cannot provide a link to your information, don't post it.

[mccw]

So when do the chats tell After Los that the doom is due? Any day now basically right? Not more than a few months.

Nov, a master monk has warned me that from November there is a high chance of doom- and earth quakes ; I have seen much shaking and earth cracking in my meditation also. But who knows what is a mind trick or not- best not to get too much caught up in such worries I think.

But be prepared just in case.

[Naam]

China: An Economic Blip?

Earlier this year, the country long-heralded as an engine of global growth quickly became a source of collective woe. China’s enormous economy grew at its slowest pace in 18 months in the first quarter, leading economists to reduce their growth forecasts and equities investors to shift to a bearish stance. The slowdown proved short-lived, though, and growth in the Middle Kingdom picked up again in the second quarter. Still, a large swath of the market remains unconvinced: did the economy actually turn a corner or is the upswing merely a temporary blip?

read more...

https://www.thefinancialist.com/china-an-economic-blip/

[midas]

Are we on the verge of a new credit crunch?

No one will thank you for talking about it, but in the world's QE-happy stock markets, indicators are flashing red

This blatant rigging of western equity markets has gone on for several years, with stocks soaring despite weak economic fundamentals. While everyone in financial circles knows this, to say as much out loud is to guarantee pariah status

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9271191/back-to-the-brink/

[mccw]

Surprise for some retaliation in kind against EU sanctions.

Another piece is quoting Russia as saying an effect of the EU sanctions will be leading to higher energy prices for Europe.

This is getting to a more costly game for EU.

Can they afford it?

[JesseFrank]

Surprise for some retaliation in kind against EU sanctions.

Another piece is quoting Russia as saying an effect of the EU sanctions will be leading to higher energy prices for Europe.

This is getting to a more costly game for EU.

Can they afford it?

A source i've been reading mentions that with the economic sanctions Putin may lose the support from the oligarchs in his country, as they are losing billions, which could mean he has to watch his back.

[mccw]

Surprise for some retaliation in kind against EU sanctions.

Another piece is quoting Russia as saying an effect of the EU sanctions will be leading to higher energy prices for Europe.

This is getting to a more costly game for EU.

Can they afford it?

A source i've been reading mentions that with the economic sanctions Putin may lose the support from the oligarchs in his country, as they are losing billions, which could mean he has to watch his back.

Putin has a documented history of Jailing or killing Oligarchs who step out of line.

So I think it's probably the other way around. The oligarchs don't dare speak openly let alone act.

All stories like you mention I have read are "private accounts" from undeclared sources saying names people are in happy; never any names or positions or people; just "the oligarchs are not happy" , says the the western press ; hmm

[mccw]

Nameless people are un-happy ^^

[deadbroke]

Turning now

[Naam]

Surprise for some retaliation in kind against EU sanctions.

Another piece is quoting Russia as saying an effect of the EU sanctions will be leading to higher energy prices for Europe.

This is getting to a more costly game for EU.

Can they afford it?

A source i've been reading mentions that with the economic sanctions Putin may lose the support from the oligarchs in his country, as they are losing billions, which could mean he has to watch his back.

Putin has a documented history of Jailing or killing Oligarchs who step out of line.

So I think it's probably the other way around. The oligarchs don't dare speak openly let alone act.

All stories like you mention I have read are "private accounts" from undeclared sources saying names people are in happy; never any names or positions or people; just "the oligarchs are not happy" , says the the western press ; hmm

which oligarch was killed by Putin and how is this documented?

[Naam]

agricultural and residential land (not in Thailand) as well as easy to store works of art (lithographs).

My art interest is in ukiyo-e but I don't think I will make any money on them.

only sh*t fetches money. real art is for aficionados who buy what they like and only part with it when on the way to the graveyard or crematorium.

Money doesn't necessarily buy taste old boy.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

since when can taste be quantified and discussed young boy?