Us Dollar Came To The Gunfight With A Knife

[Harmonica]

>>>>>> Hey, play fair! I wasn't talking about holding something narrow like the Nasdaq but a portfolio that represents the national (or even better, international) economy. <<<<<<

G,

I like that -- relieved to hear you're not one of the Nasdaq victims. Whew!!

>>>>> Without being an expert on that subject, I suspect those that jumped out the window were the ones that really needed the money in a year or two and were stupid enough to put 100% of it in the market. <<<<<<

Agreed. Common mistake investors make.

>>>>> it means that you change your holdings to safer investments gradually <<<<

Thanks for the clarification; no disagreement then. I would like to point out however that this is easier said than done -- for example, during the Dow Jones move to the January 2000 top, only 6 Dow stocks were propelling it north; with the Nasdaq March 2000 top, there were similarly very very few.

In both cases, many fundamentally strong companies were going down hard already. Technically one could see this and make reasonably good bets and bail out quick via STOPS if one was proved wrong.

I'm still unclear as to whether you are a pure fundamentalist (Lord knows what that really means) or whether you use Tech. Analysis too.

Thanks for the clarifications.

Peaches? Sure, I love them. As an aside, remember the huge cash prize won by some young kid in India many years ago for submitting an idea for an ad slogan in a contest for PEARS soap? I believe the prize was $1m (?) .... "Peaches love Pears" ...... Ah!!!!

[kreon]

good to see my buddy harmonica here

for me i stick to property at great locations around the world

yes i play the currencies market, mainly option spreads as i like using opm

but also i have a basket of currency's, such as swiss franc, usd, euro, yuan hong dollar, indian rupees, thai baht, just to cushion for the inevatible

they key is to pick the trends before other's do and then ride with it

as they say when the crowds are buying, sell, when they're selling buy

i stopped buying euro's a long tome ago at €1.15 and will start buying $ again when there is a trend towards €1.10, when is that

buy the way, i still buy gold when its drops below $420, $500 is not to far away

au revoir

[Harmonica]

good to see my buddy harmonica here

for me i stick to property at great locations around the world

yes i play the currencies market, mainly option spreads as i like using opm

but also i have a basket of currency's, such as swiss franc, usd, euro, yuan hong dollar, indian rupees, thai baht, just to cushion for the inevatible

they key is to pick the trends before other's do and then ride with it

as they say when the crowds are buying, sell, when they're selling buy

i stopped buying euro's a long tome ago at €1.15 and will start buying $ again when there is a trend towards €1.10, when is that

buy the way, i still buy gold when its drops below $420, $500 is not to far away

au revoir

Likewise Kreon,

Didn't know you were involved in these markets; indian rupees too? Bombay's stock market, just like Thailand's SET Index has taken out the early 2004 high. Both currencies did well against the $. I am already into the dollar, as you can tell from this thread.

As for Gold, even if it goes lower, it is going to be a big winner in the future IMHO and possibly take out the 1980 high and go towards 1,500. Unlike you however, I am going to start buying at around 250 or below, if it gets there -- that is my expectation.

As for property, I sold all in the last several months. Just a renter now. Will re-enter after the property CRASH worldwide!!! Yes, you read correctly! Of course, IMHO!

[Beer-diow, khao-neow, mai-an!]

Harmonica, in markets he who tries to pick bottoms only gets smelly fingers!

[~G~]

I'm still unclear as to whether you are a pure fundamentalist (Lord knows what that really means) or whether you use Tech. Analysis too.

Pure fundamentalist? You mean one of Bin Laden's people? No, not me! I use tech analysis to some extent but also give some weight to macro-economic data. Mistakes can be made using tech analysis - sometimes my desire that the market will behave in a certain way might effect my trust in the analysis. Regarding analysts and experts, well, they are like lawyers - one should use and beware them at the same time...

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, in markets he who tries to pick bottoms only gets smelly fingers!

[aaaaaa]

seems like it's time for more of your comments, Harm ! because:

Dollar drops on reserves concerns

Wednesday, 23 February, 2005, 06:03 GMT

South Korea, which has about $200bn in foreign reserves, said it plans instead to boost holdings of currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar.

Analysts reckon that other nations may follow suit and now ditch the dollar.....

At 1930 GMT, one euro was worth $1.325, up 1.46% on the day.

The British pound had added 0.76% to reach $1.91, while the dollar had fallen by 1.25% against the Japanese yen to trade at 104.2 yen.

Asian banks halt dollar's slide

The dollar regained some lost ground against most major currencies on Wednesday after South Korea and Japan denied they were planning a sell-off...

The dollar was buying 104.76 yen at 0950 GMT, 0.5% stronger on the day.

It also edged higher against both the euro and the pound, with one euro worth $1.3218, and one pound buying $1.9094....

Tokyo Stocks Higher; Dollar Up Vs. Yen

Thu, Feb 24, 2005

The dollar was trading at 105.32 yen at 11 a.m. Friday, up 0.64 yen from late Thursday in Tokyo but below the 105.42 yen it bought in New York later that day....

In currencies, the dollar held steady after gaining grounds against key currencies in New York on the back of a rise in Treasury yields and U.S. equities.

The euro fell to $1.3200 Friday morning in Tokyo from $1.3229 late Thursday. It gained ground against the Japanese currency, to 139.05 yen from 138.62 yen.

The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond rose to 1.4150 percent from Thursday's finish of 1.4000 percent. Its price slipped 0.12 point to 99.01.

Edited February 25, 2005 by aaaaaa

[Harmonica]

seems like it's time for more of your comments, Harm !  because:

Dollar drops on reserves concerns

Wednesday, 23 February, 2005, 06:03 GMT

South Korea, which has about $200bn in foreign reserves, said it plans instead to boost holdings of currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar.

Analysts reckon that other nations may follow suit and now ditch the dollar.....

At 1930 GMT, one euro was worth $1.325, up 1.46% on the day.

The British pound had added 0.76% to reach $1.91, while the dollar had fallen by 1.25% against the Japanese yen to trade at 104.2 yen.

Asian banks halt dollar's slide

The dollar regained some lost ground against most major currencies on Wednesday after South Korea and Japan denied they were planning a sell-off...

The dollar was buying 104.76 yen at 0950 GMT, 0.5% stronger on the day.

It also edged higher against both the euro and the pound, with one euro worth $1.3218, and one pound buying $1.9094....

Tokyo Stocks Higher; Dollar Up Vs. Yen

Thu, Feb 24, 2005

The dollar was trading at 105.32 yen at 11 a.m. Friday, up 0.64 yen from late Thursday in Tokyo but below the 105.42 yen it bought in New York later that day....

In currencies, the dollar held steady after gaining grounds against key currencies in New York on the back of a rise in Treasury yields and U.S. equities.

The euro fell to $1.3200 Friday morning in Tokyo from $1.3229 late Thursday. It gained ground against the Japanese currency, to 139.05 yen from 138.62 yen.

The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond rose to 1.4150 percent from Thursday's finish of 1.4000 percent. Its price slipped 0.12 point to 99.01.

Comments? Is that what you want?

OK then -- Buy US Dollars bigtime, I mean really bigtime!

Then sit back and read what these same fellows you've been quoting, are then saying 6 months - 1year down the road!

[Braccobaldo]

...Euro perhaps too strong...I expect a slide...my thoughts...

[paulfr]

The best odds one can ever achieve in gambling is 50:50 means there is always a 50% chance of losing.  Great chances of winning come with great chances of losing.

Not sure what you mean by these statements.

Agreed a pure gamble is 50:50.

But an investor has reason to believe he is on the correct side in that his strategy and information puts the odds well in his favor. So in the long run, he makes money and beats the street/herd.

Your 2nd statement is false and should be rephrased ......

Great sums gambled can be lost, but great sums invested wisely will grow you wealthy"

Obviously a smart man, I doubt you are 'gambling' at all with the bulk of your assets.

Then again, there is the occasional "force majeur" that humbles us all.

[toastwars]

your economy is in tatters, you are going to be in even bigger trouble soon, DOOM...DOOM...time for a called for impeachment?

[kreon]

The best odds one can ever achieve in gambling is 50:50 means there is always a 50% chance of losing.  Great chances of winning come with great chances of losing.

Not sure what you mean by these statements.

Agreed a pure gamble is 50:50.

But an investor has reason to believe he is on the correct side in that his strategy and information puts the odds well in his favor. So in the long run, he makes money and beats the street/herd.

Your 2nd statement is false and should be rephrased ......

Great sums gambled can be lost, but great sums invested wisely will grow you wealthy"

Obviously a smart man, I doubt you are 'gambling' at all with the bulk of your assets.

Then again, there is the occasional "force majeur" that humbles us all.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you're right, its all about common sense, aways make sure you have a balanced potfolio, the old adage, never put all your eggs in one basket, only speculate with what you can afford to lose!

the so called experts have beaten the markets only 23% of the time, even great investors are often only right about 35% of the time... they lose money on two out of three investments. their total returns are enormous because the size of the winners far outpaces the size of their losses.

when you buy stock, i recommend a stop loss and that people don't ever let themselves lose more than 25% on an investment. get out, no ifs, ands or buts. (i actually recommend a 25% trailing stop, too, meaning if you buy a stock at $10, and it goes to $20, you'd have to sell if it fell to $15, without a doubt.)

[LivinLOS]

While the trade gap and budget deficits keep rolling there is simply no solution for the dollar.. I have said it before.. Its not 'government control' no amount of intervention will work in the end (Remember Britan crashing out of the exchange rate mechanism.. Soros made his name there)..

Read this for a laugh http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/03/11/business/usecon.html

The United States trade deficit soared in January to its second-highest level ever, defying predictions that a weakened dollar and lower oil prices would improve the American trade picture.

.

Instead, U.S. consumers continued to buy foreign-made goods at a record pace, including cars, electronics and business equipment, pushing the deficit up 4.5 percent from December to $58.3 billion, the U.S. Commerce Department said Friday.

.

The deficit rose as Chinese textile and apparel shipments surged, reflecting the end to global quotas and the beginning of what eventually may lead to China taking over as much as 70 percent of the U.S. textile and apparel market.

.

The Bush administration said that the trade figures showed the strength of the American economy and its role as an engine of global growth.

.

"We view these figures as an affirmation that we're growing faster than our trading partners by as much as 2 percent, and we need them to take steps so they can grow and buy our products,"

HA HA HA Yeah its a sign of the strenght of the US economy that 70% of America's textile trade will be owned by China !!! HA HA HA Nothing to do with the free money the fed has been pumping into the economy ?!?! People are not buying these consumer goods with interest free money they dont own and cannot pay back.. Of course not..

The weakened dollar was also expected to spur export growth, but the effects were muted. It helped lift exports by 0.4 percent, but not enough to offset the import growth of 1.9 percent.

So even as they try to boost exports imports still rose nearly 5x as fast !!! Heading for the shithouse..

The fed has made its bed.. It had a stock market bubble.. Instead of letting it have a small bursting and correction it flooded the markets with money.. This made a credit bubble and housing bubble (that we see now) it also made consumption spiral out of control..

Now we have a dollar with no direction but to go but down.. Once it need high interest rates to prop it up the housing market will collapse and US bancrupcies will soar as people cant make thier repayments..

When you have a party and bender you have a hangover.. You can keep partying for another day or another week but it only makes the final hangoer all the worse.. this one is gonna need a stomach pump..

Metals again.. I said silver when it was around 6.50.. I missed its bottom as some elliot wave data indicated it could drop a sub 6.. took a small one at high 6's and 150k at 7.22.. Watch silver for min 10 this year.. Gold is making dollars but trading sideways against anything not continually falling.. bit more sideways action on Gold IMHO..

Oil at 55.. Heading for 60 ?? I think oil at 80 will be a figure we see inside of 24 months.. Commodities are the ticket for 2005

Edited March 12, 2005 by LivinLOS

[Harmonica]

While the trade gap and budget deficits keep rolling there is simply no solution for the dollar.. I have said it before.. Its not 'government control' no amount of intervention will work in the end (Remember Britan crashing out of the exchange rate mechanism.. Soros made his name there)..

Read this for a laugh http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/03/11/business/usecon.html

The United States trade deficit soared in January to its second-highest level ever, defying predictions that a weakened dollar and lower oil prices would improve the American trade picture.

.

Instead, U.S. consumers continued to buy foreign-made goods at a record pace, including cars, electronics and business equipment, pushing the deficit up 4.5 percent from December to $58.3 billion, the U.S. Commerce Department said Friday.

.

The deficit rose as Chinese textile and apparel shipments surged, reflecting the end to global quotas and the beginning of what eventually may lead to China taking over as much as 70 percent of the U.S. textile and apparel market.

.

The Bush administration said that the trade figures showed the strength of the American economy and its role as an engine of global growth.

.

"We view these figures as an affirmation that we're growing faster than our trading partners by as much as 2 percent, and we need them to take steps so they can grow and buy our products,"

HA HA HA Yeah its a sign of the strenght of the US economy that 70% of America's textile trade will be owned by China !!! HA HA HA Nothing to do with the free money the fed has been pumping into the economy ?!?! People are not buying these consumer goods with interest free money they dont own and cannot pay back.. Of course not..

The weakened dollar was also expected to spur export growth, but the effects were muted. It helped lift exports by 0.4 percent, but not enough to offset the import growth of 1.9 percent.

So even as they try to boost exports imports still rose nearly 5x as fast !!! Heading for the shithouse..

The fed has made its bed.. It had a stock market bubble.. Instead of letting it have a small bursting and correction it flooded the markets with money.. This made a credit bubble and housing bubble (that we see now) it also made consumption spiral out of control..

Now we have a dollar with no direction but to go but down.. Once it need high interest rates to prop it up the housing market will collapse and US bancrupcies will soar as people cant make thier repayments..

When you have a party and bender you have a hangover.. You can keep partying for another day or another week but it only makes the final hangoer all the worse.. this one is gonna need a stomach pump..

Metals again.. I said silver when it was around 6.50.. I missed its bottom as some elliot wave data indicated it could drop a sub 6.. took a small one at high 6's and 150k at 7.22.. Watch silver for min 10 this year.. Gold is making dollars but trading sideways against anything not continually falling.. bit more sideways action on Gold IMHO..

Oil at 55.. Heading for 60 ?? I think oil at 80 will be a figure we see inside of 24 months.. Commodities are the ticket for 2005

Hocus-pocus, hehehehe :D

Deeg eet mahn, let's have some rum!

Buy Dollars! A man's got to know his own limitations, but every once in a while he comes face to face with a towering opportunity -- like the one shaping up since December in the US Dollar -- and he's got to be prepared to stick his dick on the line, and not put numerous eggs in multiple baskets like little old lady, kreon -- and take THAT one, big swing.

Patience is a virtue in a BEAR market! Hehehehehe

[Pie Boy]

Hocus-pocus, hehehehe  :D

   Deeg eet mahn, let's have some rum!

Buy  Dollars!  A man's got to know his own limitations, but every once in a while he comes face to face with a towering opportunity -- like the one shaping up since December in the US Dollar -- and he's got to be prepared to stick his dick on the line, and not put numerous eggs in multiple baskets like little old lady, kreon -- and take THAT one, big swing. 

Patience is a virtue in a BEAR market!  Hehehehehe 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Think maybe you had enough of that Rum already Harmonica.

Watch the war start... sometime in 2005.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Any idea when in 2005? only I've got 3 trips booked to various destinations and I would hate for them to clash with a really big war as you have described.

[thaistick]

Hocus-pocus, hehehehe  :D

   Deeg eet mahn, let's have some rum!

Buy  Dollars!  A man's got to know his own limitations, but every once in a while he comes face to face with a towering opportunity -- like the one shaping up since December in the US Dollar -- and he's got to be prepared to stick his dick on the line, and not put numerous eggs in multiple baskets like little old lady, kreon -- and take THAT one, big swing. 

Patience is a virtue in a BEAR market!  Hehehehehe 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Think maybe you had enough of that Rum already Harmonica.

Watch the war start... sometime in 2005.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Any idea when in 2005? only I've got 3 trips booked to various destinations and I would hate for them to clash with a really big war as you have described.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My sources say next Thursday at 11:18 AM Greenwich Mean Time which is exactly the time I'll be boarding the Celebrity Millenium for a Mediterranean cruise.

[Pie Boy]

Cheers thaistick, I'll pop to Tesco's now to get some supplies.Unless you have some spare tickets for the love boat.

[Harmonica]

Hocus-pocus, hehehehe  :D

   Deeg eet mahn, let's have some rum!

Buy  Dollars!  A man's got to know his own limitations, but every once in a while he comes face to face with a towering opportunity -- like the one shaping up since December in the US Dollar -- and he's got to be prepared to stick his dick on the line, and not put numerous eggs in multiple baskets like little old lady, kreon -- and take THAT one, big swing. 

Patience is a virtue in a BEAR market!  Hehehehehe 

Think maybe you had enough of that Rum already Harmonica.

Watch the war start... sometime in 2005.

Yeah? Which war? Enlighten us Mr. "100K is all I got and I'm moving to Thailand"

[LaoPo]

Yeah?  Which war?  Enlighten us Mr. "100K is all I got and I'm moving to Thailand"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The one that starts with Taiwan's Declaration of Independance from China. China then attempts to invade Taiwan, and the USA steps in to help Taiwan from the "terrorism" of China... The 'new' younger military leader of China is going to have to 'prove' himself... India, Europe, Israel, Russia, Japan, Australia, among others will all be involved... China will get flattened. That one!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ravisher, with due respect: you underestimate the Chinese intelligence on both sides.

ECONOMY+MONEY prevails. Taiwan will never do anything to REALLY upset China in order to let them start a war, which of course Taiwan will loose.

The Beijing 'Emperors' (the new elite) are, on the background, to much hand-in-hand with the Taiwanese, believe it or not. The 'Emperors' are gettting richer and richer every day...guess where the money comes from..

The intererests on both sides are too huge and important. The immense capital from Taiwan, invested in China, is of interest and importance for both sides.

When it really comes to any fear, whatsoever, it will come from the US, afraid that the Chinese are 'consuming' too much of the Earths' commodities like Oil, Steel and so many other things.

BUT, who are buying the products? Where does the DEMAND come from? We all know the answer: The West.

It's a little simple to blame the Chinese for this, because: NO demand, NO production, simple as that.

But the fear for 1 single (but huge...1.3 billion people) country is not intelligent, since, if China would not exist, there would be another or more countries who would consume these commodities; India for instance with 1 billion+ people.

In such a situation both sides, China/Taiwan, will (secretly) join each other and will try to avoid any violence.

It's not any longer a matter of East and West anymore.

There is NO country in the world anymore (look at North Korea) which can survive wihout the other(s)...we are TIED-UP to each other, whether we like it or not.

Of course the US are by far much more powerful than any other nation in the world

but (I hope) the world as such is over- and overtired of conflicts and wars.

We want to have piece, love each other, have fun and have a good life, no Wars anymore; we are SICK of them!

If there would be another war...it will be probably local somewhere in the Middle East, Africa or other countries, because of the interests in Oil or other money-making commodities, nothing else.

I really hope you are wrong, not because of you as an individual, but because the world will end and destroy itself, and that, really is a doom-scenario nobody wants to be a witness of

Don't forget that IF the US decides to teach China a little 'lesson' by means of force, there still are a few other countries (besides China) who have the ability to drop a 'bomb' here and there.

God prevails it will happen.

Good luck with your Ebay dealing-and-whealing anyway and hope for you and your family you'll be in Thailand soon.

LaoPo

Edited March 14, 2005 by LaoPo

[Harmonica]

Yeah?  Which war?  Enlighten us Mr. "100K is all I got and I'm moving to Thailand"

The one that starts with Taiwan's Declaration of Independance from China. China then attempts to invade Taiwan, and the USA steps in to help Taiwan from the "terrorism" of China... The 'new' younger military leader of China is going to have to 'prove' himself... India, Europe, Israel, Russia, Japan, Australia, among others will all be involved... China will get flattened. That one!

Thanks for that.

But, Taiwan is not going to do doodly squat.

China flattened? Dream on!

[Khun Larry]

The USD has one long term direction..

ALL my comments were based not on 'playing' the markets (both up and down as you seem to do) but on trends and long term investing / protection of assets.  How precisely can the us pay back its debt (or even service it shortly) ?? it cant at current dollar price levels..

Luckily for me my asset hedge is not another fiat currency but commodity based..

2006 dollar >1.60 / Euro and possible >1.80.. 2006 gold >$800

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for sharing this insight. Spoken like a true expatellectual

Makes one wonder how the money managers on Wall St can eke out a living.

[LivinLOS]

Not sure if 'expatellectual' is mocking or not ??

Seems to me as most 'Money managers' actually perform less well than the simple stock indeces they are not really the genius's they are lauded to be and my experience is they make a living by nickel and diming on commision, poor purchase and sale prices, etc..

[Harmonica]

After several installments of conversion/shipping out since December, my last 1.2 mil Baht converted to USD and shipped out last week.

I now own zero Euros, zero Yen, zero Aussie $, zero sissy francs and only about 150K Thai Baht -- to cover expenses. No Real Estate, no commodities (except for a remaining play on Gold)

So as you can see -- ALL eggs in one basket.

That is, ALL eggs bet on the US Dollar LONG. The BIG SWING has been taken! Actually started swinging in December!

Let the games begin!

If I end up at the Salvation Army, at least come and visit me -- and bring some fresh brewed coffee; no more Nescafe for me, thanks.

The $ has finished whittling on that piece of wood!

[~G~]

So as you can see -- ALL eggs in one basket....

...If I end up at the Salvation Army, at least come and visit me -- and bring some fresh brewed coffee; no more Nescafe for me, thanks.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Will definitely come and visit you, old pal. Cannot promise any coffee, but be sure I will bring you some extra baskets...

[LaoPo]

Yeah?  Which war?  Enlighten us Mr. "100K is all I got and I'm moving to Thailand"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The one that starts with Taiwan's Declaration of Independance from China. China then attempts to invade Taiwan, and the USA steps in to help Taiwan from the "terrorism" of China... The 'new' younger military leader of China is going to have to 'prove' himself... India, Europe, Israel, Russia, Japan, Australia, among others will all be involved... China will get flattened. That one!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for that.

But, Taiwan is not going to do doodly squat.

China flattened? Dream on!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Owkay... wait and see... and yes, China is a big country to flatten, but people have long forgotten Nagasaki and Hiroshima... and those bombs were babies compared with what the US has today, and they 'can' deliver and their technology is far ahead of China. China would have no idea what hit them and it would be all over in a matter of hours.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ravisher, it seems to me that you didn't read my post on page 4...?

And why are you always talking about WAR ?

Do you also talk to your child(ren) like that?

Pray for piece and don't predict War I would suggest, please.

LaoPo

Edited March 14, 2005 by LaoPo

[Harmonica]

Yeah?  Which war?  Enlighten us Mr. "100K is all I got and I'm moving to Thailand"

The one that starts with Taiwan's Declaration of Independance from China. China then attempts to invade Taiwan, and the USA steps in to help Taiwan from the "terrorism" of China... The 'new' younger military leader of China is going to have to 'prove' himself... India, Europe, Israel, Russia, Japan, Australia, among others will all be involved... China will get flattened. That one!

Thanks for that.

But, Taiwan is not going to do doodly squat.

China flattened? Dream on!

Owkay... wait and see... and yes, China is a big country to flatten, but people have long forgotten Nagasaki and Hiroshima... and those bombs were babies compared with what the US has today, and they 'can' deliver and their technology is far ahead of China. China would have no idea what hit them and it would be all over in a matter of hours.

Ravisher, it seems to me that you didn't read my post on page 4...?

And why are you always talking about WAR ?

Do you also talk to your child(ren) like that?

Pray for piece and don't predict War I would suggest, please.

LaoPo

Ravisher,

Japan had NO nuclear armaments at that time.

China does.

In a conventional war, USA would lose to China -- they lost against Vietnam, remember?

In a nuclear war, there will be NO winners! And if there is one, you're definitely better off staying in Greece, as the fallout will hit LOS for sure.

As LaoPo correctly said, this is a depressing subject!

Adios.

[Harmonica]

So as you can see -- ALL eggs in one basket....

...If I end up at the Salvation Army, at least come and visit me -- and bring some fresh brewed coffee; no more Nescafe for me, thanks.

Will definitely come and visit you, old pal. Cannot promise any coffee, but be sure I will bring you some extra baskets...

[cclub75]

In a conventional war, USA would lose to China -- they lost against Vietnam, remember?

In a nuclear war, there will be NO winners! And if there is one, you're definitely better off staying in Greece, as the fallout will hit LOS for sure.

You can not compare Vietnam war with a possible conflit China/USA.

The best comparison (if you absolutly want one) would be the Corea War in the 50s, where dozen of thousands of little chinese grunts were "meat burger" for the troops of UN and their western weaponeries and tactics.

Of course it was though for UN (very).

But i doubt that chinese army has achieved it's transformation from a "soviet" army with "weaves" of troops to a modern one.

Regarding the nuclear threat, I think it's purely science fictionnal, direct from the Cold War phantasm. At least, with great superpowers (US, Europe, Russia, China).

It could be however a real threat with "rogue" states : Crazy North Corea for instance.

Voila.

[Harmonica]

Ravisher, it seems to me that you didn't read my post on page 4...?

And why are you always talking about WAR ?

Do you also talk to your child(ren) like that?

Pray for piece and don't predict War I would suggest, please.

LaoPo

Ravisher,

Japan had NO nuclear armaments at that time.

China does.

In a conventional war, USA would lose to China -- they lost against Vietnam, remember?

In a nuclear war, there will be NO winners! And if there is one, you're definitely better off staying in Greece, as the fallout will hit LOS for sure.

As LaoPo correctly said, this is a depressing subject!

Adios.

I agree, a depressing subject... much like the future of the US dollar. I was simply speaking of things that may affect the USD in a positive way. If things continue the way they are going China will be No1 world power and your USD's will be down the drain...

It is no secret that China want's to 'destroy' the USA. Get the word 'destroy', not just get in front... but to 'destroy'. Right now, China does not have a chance in a war... Right now is the time for USA to move... or forever hold it's peace.

OK Ravisher, apply the above reasoning a find a similar, or reasonably similar set of circumstances from the past -- and then based on your logic, let's look at how the US Dollar would react as opposed to HAS reacted and then compare!

example: 9/11

examples: have others? -- your choice; somethings that fits your "analysis".

OK?

[Terminator]

Not sure if 'expatellectual' is mocking or not ??

Seems to me as most 'Money managers' actually perform less well than the simple stock indeces they are not really the genius's they are lauded to be and my experience is they make a living by nickel and diming on commision, poor purchase and sale prices, etc..

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It's a well known fact that in the past 50 years the 23% of the so-called Wall street experts have beaten the markets, simly said, they were wrong 3 out of 4 times! So you'd better of to do the opposite of what they're saying!

There are of course a few simple but effective tools that have stood the test of time, sorry Harmonica, - Fibonacci numbers, Japanese candlesticks and tealeaves are definitly not included on that list!