Us Dollar Came To The Gunfight With A Knife

[Harmonica]

Not sure if 'expatellectual' is mocking or not ??

Seems to me as most 'Money managers' actually perform less well than the simple stock indeces they are not really the genius's they are lauded to be and my experience is they make a living by nickel and diming on commision, poor purchase and sale prices, etc..

It's a well known fact that in the past 50 years the 23% of the so-called Wall street experts have beaten the markets, simly said, they were wrong 3 out of 4 times! So you'd better of to do the opposite of what they're saying!

There are of course a few simple but effective tools that have stood the test of time, sorry Harmonica, - Fibonacci numbers, Japanese candlesticks and tealeaves are definitly not included on that list!

No need to be sorry -- Dow Theory has stood the test of time more than ANY other method. Hehehehe, don't use tealeaves or Jap candlesticks.

[LaoPo]

If things continue the way they are going China will be No1 world power and your USD's will be down the drain...

It is no secret that China want's to 'destroy' the USA.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Again Ravisher, with all respect:

1. If the US stops the demand for goods from China, things will cool down, but I don't see that happen on a large scale; yes they will try and stop or slow-down some of the imports, textiles for instance, which is now already 70% of the total consumed textiles in the US. And than? Import from other countries who will take over from China. Which countries? Vietnam, Pakistan, India, amongst them.

2. I disagree here with you, since you, again, underestimate the intelligence of the new 'Emperors' in China.

Why would they try and 'destroy' the US or other countries on which comsumer-demand they literally float upon?

I tell you that the World nowadays cannot survive anymore without the production from China; there are (not yet) alternatives for the mass-production, also because the Chinese are very hard working people.

China doesn't want a War because they are much too clever and realize they will loose this war on a large scale and not only China will be thrown backwards many decades; so will many many countries in the Far East, Europe AND the USA!

Please, don't forget that more than 60% of the WORLD-population is in the Far East...that's a few BILLION people against a mere 275/300 Million in the US.

Also, I don't underestimate the intelligence of the 'Emperors' in the USA/Washington, because there is a very old saying:

"If you can't beat them, join them" and that's what the Americans are going to do: join them.

I recall the enormous FEAR from the Americans for the Japanese (economy)-Power (in the '80's) and takeovers by the Japanese industry of 'assets' like real estate, car-factories, Movie-companies, Insurance-companies etc. etc.

(Funny enough you almost never read about the enormous investments from European countries/companies in the US, maybe because they're white?).

This Japanese Power was built on 'bubbles' and nobody is talking anymore about Japan. But than again this was a small country in comparison to China and I think the US has learned some lessons here.

I hope I am right when I say that the US will NOT throw some 'bombs' on China.

If they want to teach China a little lesson they simply will cut-off the Street of Malacca with a few Carriers and Destroyers to prevent the Oil-tankers to go to China.....Job's done. Easy at that. You don't need to throw bombs at all.

Just close the 'Street' for 6 months and the Chinese engine will come to a halt.

Than the parties will have a 'conference' on Patong Beach/Phuket and things will be settled and all world-engines will start again

LaoPo

[Harmonica]

If things continue the way they are going China will be No1 world power and your USD's will be down the drain...

It is no secret that China want's to 'destroy' the USA.

Again Ravisher, with all respect:

1. If the US stops the demand for goods from China, things will cool down, but I don't see that happen on a large scale; yes they will try and stop or slow-down some of the imports, textiles for instance, which is now already 70% of the total consumed textiles in the US. And than? Import from other countries who will take over from China. Which countries? Vietnam, Pakistan, India, amongst them.

2. I disagree here with you, since you, again, underestimate the intelligence of the new 'Emperors' in China.

Why would they try and 'destroy' the US or other countries on which comsumer-demand they literally float upon?

I tell you that the World nowadays cannot survive anymore without the production from China; there are (not yet) alternatives for the mass-production, also because the Chinese are very hard working people.

China doesn't want a War because they are much too clever and realize they will loose this war on a large scale and not only China will be thrown backwards many decades; so will many many countries in the Far East, Europe AND the USA!

Please, don't forget that more than 60% of the WORLD-population is in the Far East...that's a few BILLION people against a mere 275/300 Million in the US.

Also, I don't underestimate the intelligence of the 'Emperors' in the USA/Washington, because there is a very old saying:

"If you can't beat them, join them" and that's what the Americans are going to do: join them.

I recall the enormous FEAR from the Americans for the Japanese (economy)-Power (in the '80's) and takeovers by the Japanese industry of 'assets' like real estate, car-factories, Movie-companies, Insurance-companies etc. etc.

(Funny enough you almost never read about the enormous investments from European countries/companies in the US, maybe because they're white?).

This Japanese Power was built on 'bubbles' and nobody is talking anymore about Japan. But than again this was a small country in comparison to China and I think the US has learned some lessons here.

I hope I am right when I say that the US will NOT throw some 'bombs' on China.

If they want to teach China a little lesson they simply will cut-off the Street of Malacca with a few Carriers and Destroyers to prevent the Oil-tankers to go to China.....Job's done. Easy at that. You don't need to throw bombs at all.

Just close the 'Street' for 6 months and the Chinese engine will come to a halt.

Than the parties will have a 'conference' on Patong Beach/Phuket and things will be settled and all world-engines will start again

LaoPo

LaoPo,

I hope you are right too... but I have grave doubts. All depends at the moment on Taiwan and IF they go for Independence from China. I think they will. And I think that G.W. Bush will do as he said he would do, "...protect Taiwan... whatever it takes." If that time is 'soon' it will be to the USA and the dollar's advantage... if left until China is powerful enough militarily... it will end up a worse military mess and the dollar is in the toilet.

Harmonica,

You really believe that history repeats itself. There has never been a time like this in all history... The closest was Russia and the USA and they nearly came to atomic war despite the cost. As good old Albert said, "There are only two things that are infinite, the Universe and human stupidity, and I am not certain about the former."

That History repeats itself is a well known fact! ...... over and over and over and over ..... again! Want a good book to get you started on the subject? Try Galbraith.

[Harmonica]

If things continue the way they are going China will be No1 world power and your USD's will be down the drain...

It is no secret that China want's to 'destroy' the USA.

Again Ravisher, with all respect:

1. If the US stops the demand for goods from China, things will cool down, but I don't see that happen on a large scale; yes they will try and stop or slow-down some of the imports, textiles for instance, which is now already 70% of the total consumed textiles in the US. And than? Import from other countries who will take over from China. Which countries? Vietnam, Pakistan, India, amongst them.

2. I disagree here with you, since you, again, underestimate the intelligence of the new 'Emperors' in China.

Why would they try and 'destroy' the US or other countries on which comsumer-demand they literally float upon?

I tell you that the World nowadays cannot survive anymore without the production from China; there are (not yet) alternatives for the mass-production, also because the Chinese are very hard working people.

China doesn't want a War because they are much too clever and realize they will loose this war on a large scale and not only China will be thrown backwards many decades; so will many many countries in the Far East, Europe AND the USA!

Please, don't forget that more than 60% of the WORLD-population is in the Far East...that's a few BILLION people against a mere 275/300 Million in the US.

Also, I don't underestimate the intelligence of the 'Emperors' in the USA/Washington, because there is a very old saying:

"If you can't beat them, join them" and that's what the Americans are going to do: join them.

I recall the enormous FEAR from the Americans for the Japanese (economy)-Power (in the '80's) and takeovers by the Japanese industry of 'assets' like real estate, car-factories, Movie-companies, Insurance-companies etc. etc.

(Funny enough you almost never read about the enormous investments from European countries/companies in the US, maybe because they're white?).

This Japanese Power was built on 'bubbles' and nobody is talking anymore about Japan. But than again this was a small country in comparison to China and I think the US has learned some lessons here.

I hope I am right when I say that the US will NOT throw some 'bombs' on China.

If they want to teach China a little lesson they simply will cut-off the Street of Malacca with a few Carriers and Destroyers to prevent the Oil-tankers to go to China.....Job's done. Easy at that. You don't need to throw bombs at all.

Just close the 'Street' for 6 months and the Chinese engine will come to a halt.

Than the parties will have a 'conference' on Patong Beach/Phuket and things will be settled and all world-engines will start again

LaoPo

Good stuff, LaoPo!

[PeaceBlondie]

History usually repeats itself; not always. The general cycle or lesson may be similar, but not identical. I think nowadays empires collapse at ten times the speed at which they formerly imploded (Soviet Union, 1989-90). With the global economy interconnected electronically, a currency could collapse within days, not years.

Is the US dollar too big to fail?

[bangkokian]

While I see your sound logic

Take heed that Natural disasters are about to click,

so I'd say sell your dollars quick!

[bangkokian]

[

While I see your sound logic

Take heed that "Natural" disasters are about to hit,

so I'd say sell your dollars quick!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[bangkokian]

Stewart Swerdlow has suggested that China will lead U.N. to occupy U.S.A. and the U.S.A. will probably split into two governing regions/entities. China does not want the u.S.A. to be big literally and otherwise.

Before that those in Hawaii and Yosimite Park area from California up to Utah may have to deal with an unprecedented natural disaster. The animals in the park are already sensing this and are trying to move out of the danger zone.

[LivinLOS]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/mar142005.html

The dollar plummeted on the news of $58 billion trade deficit number. The number will only worsen with now record crude. Should dollar rebound from all time low of 81, the most upside we see is 200 DMA of 86.

So Harm.. Just curious.. what was your average $ purchase price and whats your stop loss and or exit strategy ??

[Sir Burr]

Two rules of investing:-

Never buy on a falling trend.

Bottom pickers end up with smelly fingers.

[LaoPo]

Stewart Swerdlow has suggested that China will lead U.N. to occupy U.S.A. and the U.S.A. will probably split into two governing regions/entities.  China does not want the u.S.A. to be big literally and otherwise.

Before that those in Hawaii and Yosimite Park area from California up to Utah may have to deal with an unprecedented natural disaster.  The animals in the park are already sensing this and are trying to move out of the danger zone.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Excuse me, but WHO is Stewart Swerdlow?. Will look on Google however.

And, for the natural disaster....NOSTRADAMUS already predicted an enormous Tsunami (although the word didn't exist in his time) for California whereby the most of California would disappear completely

He predicted this to happen in the last part of the last century, but he could be wrong by a few years.

LaoPo

[Harmonica]

Two rules of investing:-

Never buy on a falling trend.

Bottom pickers end up with smelly fingers.

Only for pussies and men wearing skirts

For non-wildebeast -- an established falling trend will eventually send a telegraph that it is in the process of reversing; systematic accumulation (opposite that of the herd) is the smart way to go.

Bottom pickers have nothing to worry about in Thailand because Thais don't have caca bums.

[Harmonica]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/mar142005.html

The dollar plummeted on the news of $58 billion trade deficit number. The number will only worsen with now record crude. Should dollar rebound from all time low of 81, the most upside we see is 200 DMA of 86.

So Harm.. Just curious.. what was your average $ purchase price and whats your stop loss and or exit strategy ??

Via the US Dollar Index, the average entry level for a total of 14 transactions/transfers from December to mid-March is 81.76. See weekly chart below. The dotted black lines with the arrows show the average entry or exit positions on my plays since 1995.

The one to the extreme right is, of course the current play -- what's interesting to observe is that the rally from Dec 19 to Feb 13 ran right up against the same trendline (blue) for the 5th time in 3 years -- its been repelled but gotten stronger at each attempt.

The few astute technical players worldwide might want to call the pattern that's developing an INVERSE DOUBLE HEAD & SHOULDERS structure with the blue trendline acting as the neckline.

I have NO Stoploss and have NO intention of instituting one -- NOT on this play. This is a bankable play.

Hide & watch!

[~G~]

Harmonica,

Seems like Dec. 2003 might have been too early to close your short.

And, IMHO, that you opened your last long too early as well.

Your resistance line still holds.

If I were you I'd stick to that last short until I'm convinced the resistance is breached.

[LivinLOS]

Sorry to piss in the pool, but I wouldn't take dollars (for an investment not a trade) anywhere from here to the ghost of christmas past...

Get the deficit printing press under control.. get some balance of payments, get the passing of US assets to younger hungry'ier countries under control and maybe we can talk, but I have never heard a good reason why an Indian / Chinese / SE Asian / many cannot service this new 'service economy' faster better and without driving a 5.0l SUV on its way to drop its children to school..

I am most certainly not an 'America hater' however in the field of global competition I do believe that very serious changes are afoot... I cant see Ravisher's version of 'mutually assured destruction' happening within this decade but I can see a change from the last 'American century' to a much more competative marketplace... In that competition there is simply no way that the US (or Europe) can fend of the challenge of the new economies..

Place a Gen Y slacker against a hungry young man (or woman) who wants to place his skills competitively on the global market... Not a chance..

Anyhoo.. That enough for 8am without sleep. forgive the enevitable typo's..

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

Seems like Dec. 2003 might have been too early to close your short.

And, IMHO, that you opened your last long too early as well.

Your resistance line still holds.

If I were you I'd stick to that last short until I'm convinced the resistance is breached.

Yes, December 2003 was early to close the SHORT.

As for the current LONG -- it stays put; I'm not making any changes now -- there's a time for analysis and then, when done, its time for decisive action!

We'll know soon enough whether a NEW trend is aborning ...

Thanks for your feedback.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

Seems like Dec. 2003 might have been too early to close your short.

And, IMHO, that you opened your last long too early as well.

Your resistance line still holds.

If I were you I'd stick to that last short until I'm convinced the resistance is breached.

Let's talk about the RESISTANCE line, then -- Price has not breached the line, granted.

But will you take a look at Momentum -- both Macd and RSI have breached "perfect" trendlines and get this, used these same resistance lines as support shortly thereafter!!!!!! -- a technician's dream -- in fact RSI is showing NO lower low despite Price having generated consistently lower lows.

Additionally there is the slingshot effect of the 200-week Moving Average (shown as the green sloping line in the chart below).

Therein lies my backup plan -- momentum is screaming thru' a megaphone that Price will AT THE VERY LEAST slingshot to the 200-week moving average -- currently sitting @ 100.3 -- that in itself will be a whopping gain (from 81).

Then there is the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern -- a pattern that has an over 85% success rate in general markets -- the minimum requirement for completion of this pattern is approx. @ 105 (shown by the dotted line). The neckline is shown as the heavy blue line in the chart below.

And finally, there is the Elliottwave structure of the decline -- Elliottwave is a tough and controversial field, highly mathematical and quite often, simply formidable.

When it works, it does so like molasses -- when it fails it is extremely disconcerting and I've had my share of mistakes -- fortunately for me though, I never go against Classical Technical Analysis, so I only use Elliott as a backup and for confirmation or lack thereoff.

As many times before, I stand ALONE -- again! So be it.

[Harmonica]

LivinLOS,

Hehehehe, your bosses have delivered yet another zinger:

On March 16, several Financial News services stated that

"Wall Street stumbled Wednesday after crude oil prices shot up to another new high."

But BS detection experts examine the facts and .... hehehehe, check this out:

The price of crude oil has climbed by nearly one-third so far this year.

AND

The major stock indexes in Western Europe & Japan are significantly higher in 2005.

AND

Japan depends on imports for 100% of its oil supply; Western Europe accounts for 20% of world oil consumption.

Therefore, higher oil prices caused the market rallies in Western Europe & Japan.

See how f*cked up things get? .. and in a hurry too!

God, do I love it so!

[ArtfulD]

LivinLOS,

Hehehehe,  your bosses have delivered yet another zinger: 

On March 16,  several  Financial News services stated that 

"Wall Street stumbled Wednesday after crude oil prices shot up to another new high."

But BS detection experts examine  the  facts and  ....  hehehehe, check this out:

The price of crude oil has climbed by nearly one-third so far this year.

AND

The major stock indexes in Western Europe & Japan are significantly higher in 2005.

AND

Japan depends on imports for 100% of its oil supply; Western Europe accounts for 20% of world oil consumption.

Therefore, higher oil prices caused the market rallies in Western Europe & Japan.

     

See how f*cked up things get?  .. and in a hurry too!

God, do I love it so! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The rallies were not caused simply by the oil rises, you cant use it solely as a premis, the US stock market also recently made highs not seen for a few years even tho oil is more expensive the Dow up 30%+ from 2003ish to now even with oil going from 24-25 to 56 in same time period. But also only the US is feeling the oil price rise so harshly due to the weak currency. If you chart oil price in Euros etc than the oil rise has been a lot less significant for other countries. Back near 2003 when EUR/USD was 1:1 the US and Europe was paying about 24-25 dollars per barrell, now US is paying 56 dollars or so and Europe 42 dollars, thus Europe and Japan use a lot less oil than the US, and after exchange rates taking into account are also paying less for it. Going back to the Dows rise however, again if you chart it in Euros than the past 2/3 years rally has been instead flat thus the currency rates are affecting things more than people realise.

Edited March 18, 2005 by ArtfulD

[toastwars]

Get the deficit printing press under control.. get some balance of payments, get the passing of US assets to younger hungry'ier countries under control

America has already sold it's assets and leased them back, I doubt they have much that anyone else wants.

No manufacturing and a losd of junk service industries that are becoming increasingly overpriced and uncompetetive, the market vision has failed and Bush is still burying his head. How long before the bankers start to panic over the size of the deficit once that panic sets in the spector of wild inflation will kick in to a country that has no recent experience of this problem and all ###### will break loose, Leave the dollar well alone.

[~G~]

Get the deficit printing press under control.. get some balance of payments, get the passing of US assets to younger hungry'ier countries under control

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

America has already sold it's assets and leased them back, I doubt they have much that anyone else wants.

No manufacturing and a losd of junk service industries that are becoming increasingly overpriced and uncompetetive, the market vision has failed and Bush is still burying his head. How long before the bankers start to panic over the size of the deficit once that panic sets in the spector of wild inflation will kick in to a country that has no recent experience of this problem and all ###### will break loose, Leave the dollar well alone.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Alan Greenspan said it himself: American consumers should consume less. However he did not specify how should it be done. Consumption tax will be a very unpopular move for the administration. Same with raising interest rates.

The USD is still too high. It should drop until Americans will not be able to afford the imported products, and will be able to compete better in the international markets. This however will be pretty painful to all the Americans who use their houses as a leverage for consumption.

[ArtfulD]

Get the deficit printing press under control.. get some balance of payments, get the passing of US assets to younger hungry'ier countries under control

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

America has already sold it's assets and leased them back, I doubt they have much that anyone else wants.

No manufacturing and a losd of junk service industries that are becoming increasingly overpriced and uncompetetive, the market vision has failed and Bush is still burying his head. How long before the bankers start to panic over the size of the deficit once that panic sets in the spector of wild inflation will kick in to a country that has no recent experience of this problem and all ###### will break loose, Leave the dollar well alone.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Alan Greenspan said it himself: American consumers should consume less. However he did not specify how should it be done. Consumption tax will be a very unpopular move for the administration. Same with raising interest rates.

The USD is still too high. It should drop until Americans will not be able to afford the imported products, and will be able to compete better in the international markets. This however will be pretty painful to all the Americans who use their houses as a leverage for consumption.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

With two thirds of US GDP coming from consumer spending everything is stuck between a rock and a hardplace. On one hand US consumers are told to consume less then on the other tax cuts and the likes are used to try and promote consumer spending and keep the economy ticking along (which also in turn keeps the like of Japan and China ticking along). As mentioned other places in this thread the whole worlds economics are now interlinked where certain countries can have a huge knock on effect to the rest of the world (especially USA and China, one of those big boys takes a hit and the world will be reeling) As things are going I see some harsh times ahead in the economic arenas that will make the .com bursting look like a mild retracement. I cant honestly see a way out of things without a lot of hurt a long the way no matter where you live. All IMHO obviously.

[Harmonica]

He came to the gunfight only with a knife -- some kahunas he must have.

Euro has been pestering him with questions, especially, "who the &lt;deleted&gt; are you?" $ then replies, "I'll tell you; but only at the point of dying!" Hehehehe

Look at this ballsy move -- from deep in the gutter, after suffering humiliation at the hands of even the lowly Thai Baht, $ is digging down deep to find renewed strength and character.

If the Feb 7 high of 85+ gets taken out we are indeed at the dawn of a NEW trend.

A technician's boon:

[ArtfulD]

Anybody else understand these charts??? Got any charts on Economy = WW's? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I trade for a living so yes understand the charts. If you wish to learn some basic informatiion then http://www.stockcharts.com/education/Chart...ysis/index.html has a good run down of charting basics. Technical analysis isnt a holy grail that always works but can make you a living if done right. Keep it simple. At the end of the day its all risk vs reward.

[~G~]

He came to the gunfight only with a knife -- some kahunas he must have. 

Euro has been pestering him with questions, especially, "who the &lt;deleted&gt; are  you?"  $ then replies, "I'll tell you; but only at the point of dying!"  Hehehehe 

Look at this ballsy move -- from deep in the gutter, after suffering humiliation at the hands of even the lowly Thai Baht, $ is digging down deep to find renewed strength and character.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"Kahunas"? "Strength and Character"? Mr. USD is suffering from a terminal disease! To recover he needs some serious foreign implants!

[~G~]

Harmonica, if you'd add a support line (80,81), it'll be possible to see some convergence behaviour. Altough only two points for this support.

My guess? it'll bounce up and down between that support and the pink resistance line for 30-40 days, then we should expect something dramatic, either a big dive or a takeoff (I give more chances for the dive).

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, if you'd add a support line (80,81), it'll be possible to see some  convergence behaviour. Altough only two points for this support.

My guess? it'll bounce up and down between that support and the pink resistance line for 30-40 days, then we should expect something dramatic, either a big dive or a takeoff (I give more chances for the dive).

Money talks; bullsh*t & all else walks! You feel as strongly as I do about the $'s future direction -- perhaps even more so. Put some money and take a stand then; because, as is evident from your "thoughting" its going to be as easy as taking candy from a California rabbit food vegetarian. hehehehehe

What do you say? Talk is cheap -- give the singer some, man!

[Harmonica]

Ravisher,

The Stockcharts.com recommendation is good -- lots of good stuff there.

For charts on the Economy, there are several USFed sites that provide weekly, monthly charts of hundreds of items the different agencies use.

Hehehe, with your persuasive powers you might even get Easy Al to email (attachment) you some of his personal stash.

OR subscribe to Elliottwave International and get the best of the best in terms of the Economy and Stockmarket. $59/month. I used to subscribe but don't any more.

Then there is Reuters DataLink stateside -- get it all for $65/month and download directly into Metastock software for analysis. This is my method, except that I get it all for free from Hquotes -- the data, that is -- the analysis and all the charts I present here are entirely my own creation/thinking/analysis.

Goodluck!

[~G~]

Money talks; bullsh*t & all else walks!  You feel as strongly as I do about the $'s future direction -- perhaps even more so.  Put some money and take a stand then; because, as is evident from your "thoughting" its going to be as easy as taking candy from a California rabbit food vegetarian. hehehehehe

What do you say?  Talk is cheap -- give the singer some, man! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am already invested in Euro. Not directly, but most of my income is currently based on Euro. And spending in baht. So, I am in the market. In the past I balanced it by holding a certain amount of $ to minimize risk. Not this time

Anyway, the last thing I'd say about the market is that it's easy to predict. No way.

But I'd like to ask you one thing - why no Stoploss? What will happen if it falls and you're not there? Or will you sit 24 hours a day watching the screen?

[LivinLOS]

Removed at Posters Request

Edited March 20, 2005 by dr_Pat_Pong