Thai Bhat

[12DrinkMore]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...baht-won-t-help

Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. The government this week suggested current exchange rates may be hurting Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports in January recorded their biggest decline in a decade with a 26.5% year-on-year contraction to $10.49 billion.

But Dr Tarisa said exchange rates had been less of a factor in export performance than the decline in demand from the United States, Japan and Europe.

Really, she speaks sense.

Why devalue your currency if the rate is NOT the main reason for the fall in exports, but lack of demand from the contracting economies of the West? At least they have made studies and are basing the decisions on them.

In the West all I hear are knee-jerk reactions based on the ideas of a long dead economist Keynes, who had never heard of globalisation.

[Naam]

Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. The government this week suggested current exchange rates may be hurting Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports in January recorded their biggest decline in a decade with a 26.5% year-on-year contraction to $10.49 billion.

But Dr Tarisa said exchange rates had been less of a factor in export performance than the decline in demand from the United States, Japan and Europe.

Really, she speaks sense.

Why devalue your currency if the rate is NOT the main reason for the fall in exports, but lack of demand from the contracting economies of the West? At least they have made studies and are basing the decisions on them.

perhaps to please whining Farangs?

[neverdie]

Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. The government this week suggested current exchange rates may be hurting Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports in January recorded their biggest decline in a decade with a 26.5% year-on-year contraction to $10.49 billion.

But Dr Tarisa said exchange rates had been less of a factor in export performance than the decline in demand from the United States, Japan and Europe.

Really, she speaks sense.

Why devalue your currency if the rate is NOT the main reason for the fall in exports, but lack of demand from the contracting economies of the West? At least they have made studies and are basing the decisions on them.

perhaps to please whining Farangs?

Dear Naam, How on earth do you keep up with all these seperate threads about the thai baht.....must keep you very busy. Imagine in a world where it was all kept in one thread

[Naam]

Think a lot of the postings here are just sour grapes from farangs who now have less money in Thailand to spend because their own currencies have gone down the toilet and have got to find someone to blame..

i bet my [not so] sweet butt that you are right!

[Naam]

Dear Naam, How on earth do you keep up with all these seperate threads about the thai baht.....must keep you very busy. Imagine in a world where it was all kept in one thread

most of the postings are done by my two secretaries and my three personal assistants. all act of course within the guidelines issued by me

[0Mix1up]

right so the financial brains want to poke fun at westerners with a poor exchange rate

BUT can you give a clear reason why the baht has not fallen?

If not then <deleted>, people are concerned about their incomes.

[thaihome]

May it be true or not

It does not change the fact

The average person in Thailand (The worker) is feeling an absence of tourists spending money as the Bhat is to high, when you can not put food on the table, or pay for a doctor, does it matter whose fault it is

The "average" Thai worker is unaffected by the tourism industry. The average Thai worker is employed in a factory, construction, or agriculture. So far the slowdown has impacted several thousand factory workers that have been laid off due to weakening demand for exported manufactured goods. The strong baht is not the the problem with slowing exports, it is the worldwide slowdown. When the baht was in the lower 30's in 2007 and early 2008, imports continued to grow, it was only when the world fell off a cliff in the 4Q of 2008 that export tumbled.

TH

[Naam]

right so the financial brains want to poke fun at westerners with a poor exchange rate BUT can you give a clear reason why the baht has not fallen? If not then <deleted>, people are concerned about their incomes.

why don't you shut the fàck up? or do you know the reason why the Baht is rather strong? and should you know does that give you the right to tell others to shut up? of course people are concerned when their income buys less and less Baht and, what makes it worse, prices are going up. no need to be an economist or having a financial brain to realise that and telling us. but bitching and whining about the strong Baht won't change the situation and neither do wet dreams

[12DrinkMore]

right so the financial brains want to poke fun at westerners with a poor exchange rate

BUT can you give a clear reason why the baht has not fallen?

If not then <deleted>, people are concerned about their incomes.

Here are four:

1. Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand.

2. The Thai banking system is solid and not in self-destruction mode.

3. Thailand is not up to its eyebrows in debt.

4. Thailand is run by Chinese, who care and plan for the long term success.

So how about you giving a couple saying why the Baht should fall. And the following don't count

1. To help exports because that is already listed above

2. To bolster the income of Farang living in Thailand, because the Thais don't care about that.

Edited February 20, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[LivinLOS]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...baht-won-t-help

Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. The government this week suggested current exchange rates may be hurting Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports in January recorded their biggest decline in a decade with a 26.5% year-on-year contraction to $10.49 billion.

But Dr Tarisa said exchange rates had been less of a factor in export performance than the decline in demand from the United States, Japan and Europe.

Really, she speaks sense.

Why devalue your currency if the rate is NOT the main reason for the fall in exports, but lack of demand from the contracting economies of the West? At least they have made studies and are basing the decisions on them.

In the West all I hear are knee-jerk reactions based on the ideas of a long dead economist Keynes, who had never heard of globalisation.

Do you really think that price isnt a factor when making new orders ??

In times of trouble you give a discount to get new business... Unless your Thai in which case you claim the price has no effect or raise prices to cover lost trade.

[LivinLOS]

2. The Thai banking system is solid and not in self-destruction mode.

Ohh really ???

3. Thailand is not up to its eyebrows in debt.

They havent even paid off the debts from the last time their banks almost collapsed !!

So how about you giving a couple saying why the Baht should fall. And the following don't count

1. To help exports because that is already listed above

To make Thailand more competitive on the world stage..

To increase the cost of overseas consumer items and there promote internal production.

Thereby reducing the consumerist society that Thais seem to be prepared to sell their daughters for and mortgage their property for purely for face.

Thereby increasing the use of the King sufficiency economy planning..

2. To bolster the income of Farang living in Thailand, because the Thais don't care about that.

[12DrinkMore]

Do you really think that price isnt a factor when making new orders ??

In times of trouble you give a discount to get new business... Unless your Thai in which case you claim the price has no effect or raise prices to cover lost trade.

Yes, of course the price has an effect. But the West is in depression and not ordering at any price. But there are two main price determining factors which affect the end price to the foreign purchasing company or tourist.

1. The value of the Baht

2. The factory gate price, or hotel room price or restaurant price which the owner can set.

I have seen room and restaurant prices in Phuket and Hua Hin rising much faster than inflation over the last few years. And the prices charged in some Farang oriented restaurants are outrageous.

As an example, after the price of fuel went up to over 40 Baht/litre all the prices went up. Then the price of fuel came down to half, and I didn't see any of the prices returning to the previous levels. Maybe it's time that a few expectations were reset about pricing? They could all adjust their prices downwards by 15% or 20% rather than call for the government to do it by devaluation.

Why always turn to the government to sort out your self-created problems?

This is why I don't believe the Western government's bullshit about deflation being the number 1 enemy of the galaxy. Over the last eight years prices have been rising far more than the published rate of inflation. This was due to too much credit and money floating around. Now all this liquidity is drying up as people are paying off the debts, so with less money around prices should surely drop back to the level of a couple of years ago, especially in the hotel and restaurant business to attract more customers. But nobody is doing this.

The number 1 enemy of the Galaxy is that fool Brown, who, at the beginning of March will shovel billions of newly created GBPs into the economy, making every single GBP worth even less, and also force the interest rates down to zero, causing more downward pressure on the GBP.

Talk to any European about the time just after the Euro was introduced, suddenly prices effectively shot up, merely because the real exchange rate was ignored and all the businesses decided to make hefty markups to their prices.

[AlexLah]

Yep I still remember that frikkin scam.

What used to be 99 cents became 1 Euro (1.36) a glass of beer used to be 2 guilder and 50 cents became 2 Euro.

I think on average we lost about 10-15% because of that.

[12DrinkMore]

The Thai banking system is solid and not in self-destruction mode.

Ohh really ???

Well, if you have seen any reports that it is in trouble then please publish them here. Any Thai banks being bailed out? Does Thailand have a trading surplus? Come on, anybody can say "oh really?" trying to indicate that they know something more than the rest of us. I have been scouring the papers, and internet for any signs that the Thai banks are having any troubles, because I have a fair chunk of cash over here. But nothing, nada.

So please, give us some reports, reasons that the Thai banking system is on the verge of systemic collapse. And not just the implied reason that, "the Farangs up up shit creek with no paddle, so the Thais must be twice as far and with a hole in the canoe too".

3. Thailand is not up to its eyebrows in debt.

They havent even paid off the debts from the last time their banks almost collapsed !!

The 1.4 trillion Baht was repaid with the proceeds of issuing long term bonds which, from memory, are not due to be repaid for a couple of years. And it is "only" about 40 billion USD anyway, around a third of the foreign reserves that Thailand currently holds.

Do you see a serious problem here? Or have I got all my facts wrong?

Edited February 20, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[LivinLOS]

I have seen room and restaurant prices in Phuket and Hua Hin rising much faster than inflation over the last few years. And the prices charged in some Farang oriented restaurants are outrageous.

Really.. back in some point 2000 - 2002 I stayed in a guesthouse place in Patong.. 500 baht per night..

I recently needed to find someone digs.. This place has been refurbished, now has a pool and a bar, has free wifi in every room, etc etc Lots more fascilities and costs.. 500 baht !!

The ever increasing amount of rooms added to the town has kept that sub section in place,..

However i broad strokes I agree.. I know a bar that charges 300 baht for a bottle of cider.. 6 quid for a drink !! Not a gogo or a place with expensive staff and entertainment.. A bar.

[LivinLOS]

The Thai banking system is solid and not in self-destruction mode.

Ohh really ???

Well, if you have seen any reports that it is in trouble then please publish them here. Any Thai banks being bailed out? Does Thailand have a trading surplus? Come on, anybody can say "oh really?" trying to indicate that they know something more than the rest of us. I have been scouring the papers, and internet for any signs that the Thai banks are having any troubles, because I have a fair chunk of cash over here. But nothing, nada.

So please, give us some reports, reasons that the Thai banking system is on the verge of systemic collapse. And not just the implied reason that, "the Farangs up up shit creek with no paddle, so the Thais must be twice as far and with a hole in the canoe too".

3. Thailand is not up to its eyebrows in debt.

They havent even paid off the debts from the last time their banks almost collapsed !!

The 1.4 trillion Baht was repaid with the proceeds of issuing long term bonds which, from memory, are not due to be repaid for a couple of years. And it is "only" about 40 billion USD anyway, around a third of the foreign reserves that Thailand currently holds.

Do you see a serious problem here? Or have I got all my facts wrong?

Thai banks have been pumping credit into the Thai economy.. How many Thais do you know? the ones I know locally every single one I know is up to their eyeballs in debt, brand new vigos, house payments, way to much consumer stuff on the drip, just drowning in it. And very few of them have any way to really pay these debts.. They have gambled on the ever increasing farang tourism boom that was only built becuase of cheap credit in the west. Even the few that do have a good business and 'own' a hotel (bank owns it and the bank may be left with it if the occupancy numbers dont improve) are still in debt to the eyeballs as they had to buy a new merc had to show as much face as possible.

Thier exports are down 26.5 %.. Tourism is down even more by my eyes.. Thier car production industry is just about to come grinding to a halt (and she reckons theres no point having a weaker baht !! The mind boggles).. this time those most dangerous words in investing are true.. it IS different.

Theres no way in gods earth I would have any more than pocket money in a Thai bank.. 1 mil baht max.. for a start they are so insecure !! I emptied my ex wifes account after she died took about 30 mins to work out how to social engineer access to it !! Another mate had the bank 'accidentally' give him 2 mil too much one day !! Another mate had repeated unauthorised withdrawals from his account and the bank (or the police) would do nothing to investigate, reverse, or assist with it. And you keep a 'fair chunk of cash' in them ???

Edited February 20, 2009 by LivinLOS

[12DrinkMore]

Thai banks have been pumping credit into the Thai economy.. How many Thais do you know? the ones I know locally every single one I know is up to their eyeballs in debt, brand new vigos, house payments, way to much consumer stuff on the drip, just drowning in it. And very few of them have any way to really pay these debts.. They have gambled on the ever increasing farang tourism boom that was only built becuase of cheap credit in the west. Even the few that do have a good business and 'own' a hotel (bank owns it and the bank may be left with it if the occupancy numbers dont improve) are still in debt to the eyeballs as they had to buy a new merc had to show as much face as possible.

Thier exports are down 26.5 %.. Tourism is down even more by my eyes.. Thier car production industry is just about to come grinding to a halt (and she reckons theres no point having a weaker baht !! The mind boggles).. this time those most dangerous words in investing are true.. it IS different.

Theres no way in gods earth I would have any more than pocket money in a Thai bank.. 1 mil baht max.. for a start they are so insecure !! I emptied my ex wifes account after she died took about 30 mins to work out how to social engineer access to it !! Another mate had the bank 'accidentally' give him 2 mil too much one day !! Another mate had repeated unauthorised withdrawals from his account and the bank (or the police) would do nothing to investigate, reverse, or assist with it. And you keep a 'fair chunk of cash' in them ???

All you are stating are vague examples and concluding this is the general case and so the Thai banking system is in massive trouble.

Please give us just one, just a single report from the press or an analyst who is not on a crusade (http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/) showing that the Thai banking system is about to go tits up and require billions and billions of baliouts to hold it up.

And in 14 years of having Thai bank accounts and living here, I have to counter your argument by saying that I personally have never had a single problem with the Thai banks and also amongst all my mates there has not been a single problem due to the Thai banks. The problems that they have had were mainly because of incorrect or incomplete account details so the transfers get stuck in Bangkok.

But I have had several problems with Western banks, the most costly amongst them being the dam_n Icelanders.

[12DrinkMore]

Devaluation, you want devaluation?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/indicators/

There you go, 17% devalued against the USD in one year. How much more do you want?

Now if we're talking about the EUR or the GBP, then maybe instead of looking to the Thai government to help you out, maybe you should go and talk to YOUR government about zero interest rate policies, printing money and massive and ineffective bailouts.

[highchol]

Devaluation, you want devaluation?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/indicators/

There you go, 17% devalued against the USD in one year. How much more do you want?

Now if we're talking about the EUR or the GBP, then maybe instead of looking to the Thai government to help you out, maybe you should go and talk to YOUR government about zero interest rate policies, printing money and massive and ineffective bailouts.

sorry if i may appear to be a bit of a pedant but:-

Siam comm bank T/T rates for today and one year ago are 35.57 & 32.42 respectively

which in my book is only 9.7% weaker!

[Thai at Heart]

Even with all the drop in exports, the current account is still positive. Value of oil imports and raw materials cost and thus imports are way down.

That is probably the primary reason why the Baht isn't in massive trouble.

Anyone know where can we see the current accounts for the other countries in the region?

[Ricardo]

The average Thai worker is employed in a factory, construction, or agriculture. So far the slowdown has impacted several thousand factory workers that have been laid off due to weakening demand for exported manufactured goods. The strong baht is not the the problem with slowing exports, it is the worldwide slowdown. When the baht was in the lower 30's in 2007 and early 2008, imports continued to grow, it was only when the world fell off a cliff in the 4Q of 2008 that export tumbled.

TH

Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture.

[12DrinkMore]

Devaluation, you want devaluation?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/indicators/

There you go, 17% devalued against the USD in one year. How much more do you want?

Now if we're talking about the EUR or the GBP, then maybe instead of looking to the Thai government to help you out, maybe you should go and talk to YOUR government about zero interest rate policies, printing money and massive and ineffective bailouts.

sorry if i may appear to be a bit of a pedant but:-

Siam comm bank T/T rates for today and one year ago are 35.57 & 32.42 respectively

which in my book is only 9.7% weaker!

www.xe.com quotes 29.6370205313 and 35.6965000950 for the same period.

Possibly some confusion about the onshore/offshore rates which have now converged.

But 10% is 10%

Wonder how much people want to see?

[12DrinkMore]

Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture.

Where did that information come from?

500,000 jobs lost in three months?

Give us a link.

[highchol]

Devaluation, you want devaluation?

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/indicators/

There you go, 17% devalued against the USD in one year. How much more do you want?

Now if we're talking about the EUR or the GBP, then maybe instead of looking to the Thai government to help you out, maybe you should go and talk to YOUR government about zero interest rate policies, printing money and massive and ineffective bailouts.

sorry if i may appear to be a bit of a pedant but:-

Siam comm bank T/T rates for today and one year ago are 35.57 & 32.42 respectively

which in my book is only 9.7% weaker!

www.xe.com quotes 29.6370205313 and 35.6965000950 for the same period.

Possibly some confusion about the onshore/offshore rates which have now converged.

But 10% is 10%

Wonder how much people want to see?

Fair do's on the on/offshore bit.

From a personal point of veiw I along with many expats would like to see a further weakening, forgetting any personal benefits I fall into the camp that thinks a weaker currency would also benefit the majority of Thais.

[jdrake72]

THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.

THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.

Not suprise that:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...26-5-in-january

January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.

In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD

That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.

Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.

Edited February 20, 2009 by jdrake72

[12DrinkMore]

THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.

THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.

Not suprise that:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...26-5-in-january

January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.

In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD

That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.

Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.

I've just looked at http://www.x-rates.com/ and taken the 120 day history

So the THB against

HKD Lost 3%

CNY Lost 2%

MYR Gained 2%

SGD Gained 2%

TWD Gained 5%

more or less even Stevens, as a couple of percent fluctuation is normal

Then the THB marked gains against

INR Gained 8%

IDR Gained 70% (no idea what happened there, maybe time to take a holiday in Bali)

KRW Gained 30%

But against the Japanese

JPY Lost 20%

The THB and other Asian currencies in the first group seem to be tracking the USD, with small fluctuations.

"it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months."

Presumably you are mainly considering all the other Western currencies that personally affect you, which have fallen substantially against the USD.

Personally I would go with Tarisa's statement saying that the THB is not way out of line with the other Asian currencies, and not your "rising like crazy against most of the world currencies" blanket opinion.

Thank god we have a level headed woman running the Thai economy, otherwise the wildly gyrating testosterone powered Western males such as Brown, Darling, Greenspan, Bush etc would screw it up here as well.

Edited February 20, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[12DrinkMore]

And here's some GOOD news for once

http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_web...n-cheapest.html

So Thailand is right up there as the third cheapest to take your holiday!

[AlexLah]

But Pound 45 to the THB? Are they expecting something?

[mommysboy]

There's no point arguing against the fantasists. Ok you're right it isn't happening. The bt is worth every cent penny and peso of it's valuation. Also Thailand has only lost a few thousand jobs. And exports didn't decrease 24% in Jan. And Thais aren't really struggling. And anyway they will all go back to their parent's farms and grow rice and have a great disease free life. And, Oh hel_l, let's just close the thread- it's been ruined.

[12DrinkMore]

There's no point arguing against the fantasists. Ok you're right it isn't happening. The bt is worth every cent penny and peso of it's valuation. Also Thailand has only lost a few thousand jobs. And exports didn't decrease 24% in Jan. And Thais aren't really struggling. And anyway they will all go back to their parent's farms and grow rice and have a great disease free life. And, Oh hel_l, let's just close the thread- it's been ruined.

Have to define the fantasists first.

Is it those who hope for a GBP worth 72 THB with no reasoning to back it up?

Or is it those, presumably me included, who are trying to work out what is happening through a fair amount of effort, and trying to put it into a perspective so that we can protect what he have?

But back to your post.

Yes, Thailand has lost thousands of jobs. And exports did decrease 24% in January. And the Thais will struggle. And if they go back to live healthy lives on the farm, at least they will all have food, because going to work on the farm is still a possibility for them.

But put that into the big picture and compare it to what is happening in Europe and the States, where it is far far worse with very bleak forecasts for the next decade. The last eight months have been the scariest of my life. And I can see that the next couple of years are going to be even scarier. There will be a lot of dreams shattered and destroyed. But living on a farm in Isaan raising chickens, pigs, ducks and growing rice with my partner sounds a hel_l of a lot better and more interesting than living on a UK national pension of 20,000/month in the cold winters over there, and the only occupation being to stand in queue of the unemployable.