Thai Economy,

[WilliamCave]

Hi all, for the past 7 years my wife and I sit together every night for a few hours and drink tea and talk we have been doing this and latley she has been telling me about our day out and things she has been noticing.

She tells me that thais are now showing the stress and worry of the economy on there faces and actions..In restaurants, bars and stores people who work in these areas are not as happy as they were. She comented about all the university people who lost there part time jobs to support them selves what will they do now..

the areas I am talking about are not the the tourist areas, it is in rural bangkok area.....

We went down to kason rd first time in over a year, she noticed the thais she talked to are very angry and not to pleasant to talk to. they told her business is so low they are not even making enough to make the rent, so quiet they are not happy, big effects on the people

my wife is 36 and has never seen it look so bad even the 97 crash...she said this is worse, emotionally, and mentally on the people she is very concerned about the politics and the future of thailand.

she believes that thailand is finished as a tourist capital of asia and economic power because of the attack on tourists and killings negative media corruption etc

Many thais know this but just are sitting leting the things fall were they will,, mai pen rai...attude may do damage that cant be reversed this time..

And it is going to get much worse, when the full impact of all the layoffs and factory closures are felt in usually takes a few months, when the full impact is felt by the majority of thais even the ones that have a bit of money, it is going to be disaster on the way for the countries economy

[mommysboy]

Indeed, a very good posting. It's much the same in Pratunam. Also, times have been hard for many years now for traders, perhaps since 2005 I picked up the first hints of hard times. Thailand has been struggling to compete for many years, poor stock and high prices compared with China.

It didn't matter before, people were cash rich, on holiday, and easily parted from their money, but those that can make it over here are spending a bit more wisely as their currency may not be so strong. Exporters have been crippled by the strong bt.

Yes, a main point here is that Thailand has always been propped up by the west when in trouble, and overcoming a recession has been relatively easy, that's not going to happen this time, and may not happen again for 3-10 years.

There were some awful forecasts today, the worst is yet to come.

[WilliamCave]

Indeed, a very good posting. It's much the same in Pratunam. Also, times have been hard for many years now for traders, perhaps since 2005 I picked up the first hints of hard times. Thailand has been struggling to compete for many years, poor stock and high prices compared with China.

It didn't matter before, people were cash rich, on holiday, and easily parted from their money, but those that can make it over here are spending a bit more wisely as their currency may not be so strong. Exporters have been crippled by the strong bt.

Yes, a main point here is that Thailand has always been propped up by the west when in trouble, and overcoming a recession has been relatively easy, that's not going to happen this time, and may not happen again for 3-10 years.

There were some awful forecasts today, the worst is yet to come.

Very well put MB, agree fully with u, foreign money coming in to thailand helped prop up the economy and tourism but not this time I agree with u...and how many thai families, girl friends, friends recieve money from westerners and now are not recieving it anymore because of there turn down..

would be interested to know what the amount and impact the money that was sent to thailand is every year..Like the philoppenes a great amount of money is sent there by there foreign workers and westerners..has a massive impact on there economy,,,so does any one know the amount of impact this has on the economy?

[Jingthing]

As far as tourism is concerned, this could be promoted a little bit if they liberalized tourism visas. For example, like Mexico where most westerners arriving get six months on arrival without any application. Visa hassles do deter some people. I would also suggest a national smile at tourists campaign to promote the idea that being pleasant, friendly, and FAIR to foreigners is in the overall national patriotic interest. Many tourism oriented nations do exactly that and frankly I think Thailand needs that badly now. None of this would matter if the political situation doesn't stabilize though. Desperate times call for radical measures and I am sorry Tourism Authority, the Siam Sunrise cocktail and making announcements of waiving visa fees and then not waiving them doesn't cut it in the big bad competitive world.

Edited February 24, 2009 by Jingthing

[alfbondi]

Lower The Baht

[henryalleman]

As far as tourism is concerned, this could be promoted a little bit if they liberalized tourism visas. For example, like Mexico where most westerners arriving get six months on arrival without any application. Visa hassles do deter some people. I would also suggest a national smile at tourists campaign to promote the idea that being pleasant, friendly, and FAIR to foreigners is in the overall national patriotic interest. Many tourism oriented nations do exactly that and frankly I think Thailand needs that badly now. None of this would matter if the political situation doesn't stabilize though. Desperate times call for radical measures and I am sorry Tourism Authority, the Siam Sunrise cocktail and making announcements of waiving visa fees and then not waiving them doesn't cut it in the big bad competitive world.

IMHO making VISA cheaper or even free will not bring any improvement or boost up the tourist industry. Maybe some people not yet fully comprehend that there is an worldwide recession in progress. This week the yearly 1 week school holiday is going on. Yes people still go on holiday but they go ski closer to home for a shorter period and if they fly they take a low budget airline or go by tour bus. they lower there budget, the bottle of wine on the table is replaced by a glass of mineral water. they choose cheaper hotels; City trips have been very popular in recent years now there is in decline. And long haul destinations is almost out of the question this moment.

And the holiday season in Europe (July and August) has not good prospects at all.

You can put 10 000 smiling people with flowers in Suva, but when people don't have the money they simply will not come.

[Merangue]

I think a lessening of the Baht would help both exports and the tourism that at the moment is looking dire for Thailand.

I agree that people are looking for cheap holidays and in this they are looking for value for money. If they see they can buy a lot in Thailand for a small amount they are more likely to pay that little bit extra for the flights.

If the flights are cheaper then that is all the better also.

Again with exports. If the Market is struggling to find cheap goods to buy, people will look to what country is providing the best value for money. Thailand is not providing this right now.

[alfbondi]

If this global recession is going to last 3 , 5, or ten years the countries that now show value for money will end up better off, in both the immediate and long term future , hopefully the thai politicians can work this out for themselves.

[Naam]

As far as tourism is concerned, this could be promoted a little bit if they liberalized tourism visas. For example, like Mexico where most westerners arriving get six months on arrival without any application. Visa hassles do deter some people. I would also suggest a national smile at tourists campaign to promote the idea that being pleasant, friendly, and FAIR to foreigners is in the overall national patriotic interest. Many tourism oriented nations do exactly that and frankly I think Thailand needs that badly now. None of this would matter if the political situation doesn't stabilize though. Desperate times call for radical measures and I am sorry Tourism Authority, the Siam Sunrise cocktail and making announcements of waiving visa fees and then not waiving them doesn't cut it in the big bad competitive world.

tourists do not need a visa validity of six months. the average tourist does not stay more than 30 days in any country. Thailand gives 30 days on arrival to most citizens who are potential tourists.

[jumnien]

When I came to Thailand 12 years ago, the average farang in Thailand was, how to put it, a bit unusual. Farangs were a smattering of adventurers, buddhist-loving seekers, a few entrepreneurs, a handful of desk jockeys, and a few odd sex-tourists who settled down. Not your average Joe, or Lars.

Now, Lars and Joe are coming from the West. The cat is out of the bag. The flood has begun and there is no stopping it. Obviously, we would all like to stop this flood; but, alas, we just have to accept it.

[Isee]

I would also suggest a national smile at tourists campaign to promote the idea that being pleasant, friendly, and FAIR to foreigners is in the overall national patriotic interest.

Good place to start would be immigration counters at the airport. Surely being told its now part of their job description to 'samile' wouldn't be too hard. Two visits to PI and always felt welcomed to the country. When I arrive or leave Thailand I ask myself "Is this really the Land Of Smiles?".

To the OP, not sure if I would agree with the view that Thailand is "finished as a tourist capital of asia" - Thailand will always have its attractions to various people especially repeat visitors, but some may not make as many repeat trips at the moment. I'm trying to think of a country that could offer what Thailand does....Vietnam maybe for a direct comparison, Cambodia as a second option if it can sort a few things out...I don't know enough about China to put it up as an option. Burma would be of interest to me if the military junta could ever be removed.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

As far as tourism is concerned, this could be promoted a little bit if they liberalized tourism visas. For example, like Mexico where most westerners arriving get six months on arrival without any application. Visa hassles do deter some people. I would also suggest a national smile at tourists campaign to promote the idea that being pleasant, friendly, and FAIR to foreigners is in the overall national patriotic interest. Many tourism oriented nations do exactly that and frankly I think Thailand needs that badly now. None of this would matter if the political situation doesn't stabilize though. Desperate times call for radical measures and I am sorry Tourism Authority, the Siam Sunrise cocktail and making announcements of waiving visa fees and then not waiving them doesn't cut it in the big bad competitive world.

tourists do not need a visa validity of six months. the average tourist does not stay more than 30 days in any country. Thailand gives 30 days on arrival to most citizens who are potential tourists.

Had a friend arrive last Sunday (by plane) and they would only give her 14 days. Said she could not talk them into more, new rule? She has a house here and visit frequently. 14 days does not hack it.

[Ricardo]

Lower The Baht

Short & to the point. Thailand has to become cheap-and-cheerful again, something which has been ebbing away for a long time, this won't be an overnight-cure, but is a necessary step in the right direction.

As far as tourism is concerned, this could be promoted a little bit if they liberalized tourism visas.

Won't solve everything, but it would certainly not do any harm, and would send a more-welcoming message.

Thailand gives 30 days on arrival to most citizens who are potential tourists.

Unless of course they happen to arrive by land, from Singapore/Malaysia, or Laos/Cambodia, as part of a S.E.Asia-tour.

It would be interesting to see the patterns, of people touring the region, which gateway they first arrive into & then where they go from there, what short side-trips they make.

I don't think there is any quick-fix, to the woes of Thailand's tourist-industry, so it makes sense to maximise the benefits of what there still is, not drive visitors away with restrictive visa-regs or high prices, real or apparent due to the strong baht.

[mommysboy]

The only cure is cheap prices and good value for money, but Thailand is pretty good value anyway for a tourist I think. Also the tourist sector may not be able to cut margins. So I don't think there is an answer regarding tourism. People simply don't have the money to come.

Exports are crippled by the high bt, and IMHO Thai goods tend to be lower quality, and the service and availability sometimes poor. I don't see quick relief here either.

So the theory is that those made redundant will return to the family farm. That's not going to generate much income, bad answer.

Thailand has to be brave and devalue the bt 10%, cut interest rates to 0%, and borrow heavily to finance infrastructure, perhaps embark on a national housing project, or improve health services. I can't see any other answer.

[wobblyjohn]

Had a friend arrive last Sunday (by plane) and they would only give her 14 days. Said she could not talk them into more, new rule? She has a house here and visit frequently. 14 days does not hack it.

On my last visa run to Cambodia I overheard a young Russian woman being told that as she didn't have a visa she would only get 30 days, after their conversation finished I asked the Cambodian woman (part of the team who were sorting all the passports) why she had said 30 days as now it's only 14 at a land crossing, she told me Russians get 30

More discrimination

[midas]

On my last visa run to Cambodia I overheard a young Russian woman being told that as she didn't have a visa she would only get 30 days, after their conversation finished I asked the Cambodian woman (part of the team who were sorting all the passports) why she had said 30 days as now it's only 14 at a land crossing, she told me Russians get 30

More discrimination

Don't feel too bad about that wobblyjohn because this was a reciprocal agreement negotiated

specifically just between Thailand and Russia about one to two years ago. 30 days is not much

of concession really bearing in mind Thai's no longer need a visa for Russia which represents

an enormous saving of money and time. I'm not sure however if Thai's are also

exempt from the equally very costly registration process when you arrive

in Russia-if so I can guarantee without any hesitation the Thai's would have secured

the best deal by far

[Jumber]

Large part of the crisis comes from human side. Big role is played by expectations. People expect that situation will be worse, because they hear it everyday in TV, read that in newspapers, hear it from friends and colleagues. After that it is not strange that people become stressed and crisis strengthens.

[colibra]

Tourism my be down because of the economy, but the people at immagrations attitude make it undesireable for people that have some money and want to be here to tolerate their attitudes. Their are other places to go and live where they make it a lot easier to stay long time and spent your money. I think thailand is running out of feet. You would think the attitude would be changing but nope there still just as short and nasty as they have always been . I live here and have a Thai wife and house but i'm seriously thinking of packing it in. Who needs the abuse, shooting, rip offs , with little recourse because of the rampid corruption. aloha

[Naam]

Tourism my be down because of the economy...

ahmmm...

[Jingthing]

tourists do not need a visa validity of six months. the average tourist does not stay more than 30 days in any country. Thailand gives 30 days on arrival to most citizens who are potential tourists.

Thailand attracts many snowbirds the cold countries. Their winter lasts much longer than 30 days. Case closed.

[bonzor]

Tourism my be down because of the economy, but the people at immagrations attitude make it undesireable for people that have some money and want to be here to tolerate their attitudes. Their are other places to go and live where they make it a lot easier to stay long time and spent your money. I think thailand is running out of feet. You would think the attitude would be changing but nope there still just as short and nasty as they have always been . I live here and have a Thai wife and house but i'm seriously thinking of packing it in. Who needs the abuse, shooting, rip offs , with little recourse because of the rampid corruption. aloha

Most of the suggestions are like putting a sticking plaster on a newly amputated limb. Thailand, like everywhere else is falling off a cliff. Of course the fall is lessened if you don't panic so the politicians are endlessly talking up the economy. That can only be a good thing as long as they are believed. If all confidence in them disappears then they contribute to the problem and will be replaced by yet another government. Perhaps next time one of national unity. With such a government there's nowhere else to go since the opposition ceases practically to exist. One thing is fairly certain decisons will be taken in the interests of the ruling elite. Its the poor and lower middle class that will feel the pain.

When you have a stake in the country you have a stake...you can't just Unthai your wife and family. You married into the whole deal for better or worse.

The things that annoy us immigrants are but a gnat bite compared to the everyday life of a poor thai. We have a miniscule influence on the wider economy but a huge unfluence on the micro economy of our Thai friends and family and the village. To desert them now would be a betrayal of the worst kind. Where you gonna go? I've lived in six different countries and after a while they all drive you nuts. All you do is find fresh pasture to rear a whole new set of annoyances.

Better to concentrate on the things you like about Thailand. As countries develop, inevitably there's a shortage of the old fashioned step-n-fetch-it family retainer or ever smiling server or waitress. That phase lasts until the jobs are revalued as part of a wider service economy and are perceived as being worthwhile rather than low paying, low status paths to nowhere.

In a real downturn there is always a shakeout. If tourist places are unfriendly and the service is bad they will go to the wall before the friendly, good service places. Basing decisions on soundbites and media fads is stupid. No one has any real clue about crime rates, just a series of personal anecdotes which are easily countered by another set of anecdotes. My Thai family are always worried about crime but have never been burgled or robbed, cheated or scammed. Where as in the West I've been robbed, burgled, ripped off and felt almost as if I was serving time in precinct 13, surrounded by hostiles.

In the west Thais often meet unfriendy faces and sour officialdom. Often the perpetrators are scared of contact with aliens, of their odd language, of being asked questions they cannot understand or answer. Why should immigration officials in Thailand be any different? In fact they face a worse problem because in the West many Thais try, in halting and broken English, to make themselves understood, how many falangs at a border have one word of Thai? How many feel their inate superiority will carry them through? You only have to skim these forums to find anti thai racism writ large, carping sarcasm about thais education, intelligence, powers of reason and morality. Would you fancy dealing with a stream of such gilded beings gracing your country with their presence? I already know the answer.

Edited February 25, 2009 by bonzor

[Isee]

In a real downturn there is always a shakeout. If tourist places are unfriendly and the service is bad they will go to the wall before the friendly, good service places. Basing decisions on soundbites and media fads is stupid. No one has any real clue about crime rates, just a series of personal anecdotes which are easily countered by another set of anecdotes. My Thai family are always worried about crime but have never been burgled or robbed, cheated or scammed. Where as in the West I've been robbed, burgled, ripped off and felt almost as if I was serving time in precinct 13, surrounded by hostiles.

In the west Thais often meet unfriendy faces and sour officialdom. Often the perpetrators are scared of contact with aliens, of their odd language, of being asked questions they cannot understand or answer. Why should immigration officials in Thailand be any different? In fact they face a worse problem because in the West many Thais try, in halting and broken English, to make themselves understood, how many falangs at a border have one word of Thai? How many feel their inate superiority will carry them through? You only have to skim these forums to find anti thai racism writ large, carping sarcasm about thais education, intelligence, powers of reason and morality. Would you fancy dealing with a stream of such gilded beings gracing your country with their presence? I already know the answer.

I can't help but feel lost in where you point is suppose to land. You also appear to adopt a similar generalisation which you condemn on others. You have to accept that your view and experiences will be different to others. For example, you say you've never been robbed etc - do you suggest that others haven't? I don't think you know the "answer" either, but you presume so.

[pkrv]

Looking at flights from the UK to say Hong Kong or Sydney. Why does it cost less to fly to Sydney (by a HUGE amount) than to fly to Bangkok? (which is on the way)

[dee123]

"Thai economy...... from an educated Thais view?" Thaksin("human rights abuser of the worst kind) and PAD leaders (only educated people should have right to vote) are supposedly "educated".....why don't you ask them?

[Naam]

Looking at flights from the UK to say Hong Kong or Sydney. Why does it cost less to fly to Sydney (by a HUGE amount) than to fly to Bangkok? (which is on the way)

air fares were always irrational.

[Lasic1]

The main difference between now and 97 was that the IMF crisis was mainly confined to Asia. Bad investments crumbled and many loans were defaulted on throughout Asia. Malaysia was particularily hard hit when investing countries had to pull back funds to repay bank loans. Thailand didn't really suffer a tourist decline at that time since the baht was in the 50 to 1 US dollar range. Real estate collapsed however and there were fire sales on condos. The problem now is that this is a global recession. That means less tourists due to a lack of available currency to travel. Also with the baht relatively high, this is another deterrent to tourism. Whereas before the tourists could be counted on to boost the sagging economy, this will not hold true this time. Meanwhile exports have slowed, construction is grinding to a halt and small businesses are failing with regularity. In the US we are calling the economic collapse a depression. Although plans are underway to stimulate the US economy, recovery isn't projected until 2010. Consequently almost every country and not just Thailand will have to endure difficult economic circumstances for the near future and perhaps beyond.

Hi all, for the past 7 years my wife and I sit together every night for a few hours and drink tea and talk we have been doing this and latley she has been telling me about our day out and things she has been noticing.

She tells me that thais are now showing the stress and worry of the economy on there faces and actions..In restaurants, bars and stores people who work in these areas are not as happy as they were. She comented about all the university people who lost there part time jobs to support them selves what will they do now..

the areas I am talking about are not the the tourist areas, it is in rural bangkok area.....

We went down to kason rd first time in over a year, she noticed the thais she talked to are very angry and not to pleasant to talk to. they told her business is so low they are not even making enough to make the rent, so quiet they are not happy, big effects on the people

my wife is 36 and has never seen it look so bad even the 97 crash...she said this is worse, emotionally, and mentally on the people she is very concerned about the politics and the future of thailand.

she believes that thailand is finished as a tourist capital of asia and economic power because of the attack on tourists and killings negative media corruption etc

Many thais know this but just are sitting leting the things fall were they will,, mai pen rai...attude may do damage that cant be reversed this time..

And it is going to get much worse, when the full impact of all the layoffs and factory closures are felt in usually takes a few months, when the full impact is felt by the majority of thais even the ones that have a bit of money, it is going to be disaster on the way for the countries economy

[mommysboy]

The main difference between now and 97 was that the IMF crisis was mainly confined to Asia. Bad investments crumbled and many loans were defaulted on throughout Asia. Malaysia was particularily hard hit when investing countries had to pull back funds to repay bank loans. Thailand didn't really suffer a tourist decline at that time since the baht was in the 50 to 1 US dollar range. Real estate collapsed however and there were fire sales on condos. The problem now is that this is a global recession. That means less tourists due to a lack of available currency to travel. Also with the baht relatively high, this is another deterrent to tourism. Whereas before the tourists could be counted on to boost the sagging economy, this will not hold true this time. Meanwhile exports have slowed, construction is grinding to a halt and small businesses are failing with regularity. In the US we are calling the economic collapse a depression. Although plans are underway to stimulate the US economy, recovery isn't projected until 2010. Consequently almost every country and not just Thailand will have to endure difficult economic circumstances for the near future and perhaps beyond.

Do we emphasise tourism too much ? It was a shock to me that it only accounts for 6% or so of GDP and various officials have downplayed it's importance for years, I'd have to sum it up as a couldn't care less attitude, so tourism can't be crucial. I think it's more about failing industry, but the main tenet is right:before thailand could rely on Western investment and full order books. To my mind even 2010 could be optimistic especially if the Govt itself is making the prediction.

Farming seems to offer the main respite, along with public spending, indeed these may be the only options. So I expect Thailand to try to ride out the long recession ahead in this way and hopefully emerge intact albeit with a big budget defecit, low foreign reserves and possibly balance of payments defecit too.

Hence when the world economy starts to recover and demand with it, the Thai bt will naturally be low and Thailand will clean up doing what it is good at, indeed what it can only do, that is to knock out low quality stuff at cheap prices, and provide a rough and ready exotic holiday at the sort of prices no one can refuse. 3 years min. though IMHO.

[Jingthing]

Do you trust that 6 percent statistic? I don't. Does it count the UNDERGROUND ECONOMY generated by tourism? Of course it doesn't. Not saying exports aren't much more important, but am saying tourism is much more important than 6 percent.

[thaihome]

Farming seems to offer the main respite, along with public spending, indeed these may be the only options. So I expect Thailand to try to ride out the long recession ahead in this way and hopefully emerge intact albeit with a big budget defecit, low foreign reserves and possibly balance of payments defecit too.

Hence when the world economy starts to recover and demand with it, the Thai bt will naturally be low and Thailand will clean up doing what it is good at, indeed what it can only do, that is to knock out low quality stuff at cheap prices, and provide a rough and ready exotic holiday at the sort of prices no one can refuse. 3 years min. though IMHO.[/size]

You do realize that agriculture accounted for about 370 billion baht of the Thailand GNP (about 5%) in 2007. Manufacturing about 1,700 billion baht (about 20%) and Electronic & electrical products account for almost a quarter of that with transportation equipment at another 20%. Not exactly low quality stuff at cheap prices you think they knock out.

Please, do some research on the Thai economy and quit basing your opinions on what think the it is about.

TH

[mommysboy]

Farming seems to offer the main respite, along with public spending, indeed these may be the only options. So I expect Thailand to try to ride out the long recession ahead in this way and hopefully emerge intact albeit with a big budget defecit, low foreign reserves and possibly balance of payments defecit too.

Hence when the world economy starts to recover and demand with it, the Thai bt will naturally be low and Thailand will clean up doing what it is good at, indeed what it can only do, that is to knock out low quality stuff at cheap prices, and provide a rough and ready exotic holiday at the sort of prices no one can refuse. 3 years min. though IMHO.[/size]

You do realize that agriculture accounted for about 370 billion baht of the Thailand GNP (about 5%) in 2007. Manufacturing about 1,700 billion baht (about 20%) and Electronic & electrical products account for almost a quarter of that with transportation equipment at another 20%. Not exactly low quality stuff at cheap prices you think they knock out.

Please, do some research on the Thai economy and quit basing your opinions on what think the it is about.

TH

Yes I did realise already and I actually quoted a correct figure regarding tourism. Correct me if I'm wrong but you doubt that there is a recession, isn't that so? You are clever and lucky and seemingly unaffected I think.

Agriculture is very labour intensive and whilst it does not provide much in terms of GDP, it feeds the population and employs a staggeringly high number of people. Families on the farm are a key part of the social welfare system in the most impoverished parts. I believe that it's going to be about subsistence as much as anything.

I think the high tec stuff is mainly produced in the West. Thailand tends towards basic stuff shall we say. Yes when I compare my Thai goods with those made in China, the Thai goods look poor. Competitive prices are a main attraction in doing business with Thailand IMHO.

The main point though, which you missed again as you have in replying to all my postings, is that agriculture, tourism and public spending are really the only things that are open to influence at the moment.

There's very little point us debating further, and it's probably boring for others, it is for me. Why not just post a reasonable response if you must and let's call it quits?