May 10, 200917 yr Author EEM - Ishare Emerging Markets fund has done well. It could find some difficulty climbing beyond $32.80, or perhaps $34.50 I feel. Edited May 10, 200917 yr by badge
May 10, 200917 yr Author In the short term TBond Yields look ready for a correction. They could pop higher in the very short term, to 4.1%-4.3% perhaps, but that would likely lead to -ve divergence on oscillators, and again would look fit for a bit more consolidation I believe. the correction played out as a sideways churn, a consolidation. Yields have since continued up to the Trendline. A breakout and retest of the Trendline would not be surprising.
May 10, 200917 yr Author As a proxy for the USDIndex(as EURUSD accounts for over 50% I believe), I think either the EURUSD will turn down at a fib retracement level of its most recent fall, or a slightly higher high coulb be printed than that of Dec '08. Around 1.4850 perhaps, forming a Bear flag, and ushering in renewed USD strength well I believe it will eventually go beyond Dec '08's high, but resistance on the way lies at c.3850 and c.4200 or c.4300
May 16, 200917 yr Author In the short term TBond Yields look ready for a correction. They could pop higher in the very short term, to 4.1%-4.3% perhaps, but that would likely lead to -ve divergence on oscillators, and again would look fit for a bit more consolidation I believe. well yields have come off almost 10% from their highs at 4.4% - made with negative divergence on oscillators. I imagine Tbond yields will correct further, however a bounce first wouldnt be surprising.
May 16, 200917 yr Author [...]US BANKS still churning below those highs, and Im still incline to think a deeper correction might creep in, and therefore induce corrections in Indicies too, which have buy an large churned around making marginal new highs too. not neccessary! Equities all look very nice still, i still favour mining and finance related. Im out of both now. Recognise the possibility they could print higher highs, but the risk of a more protracted sell off soon, is enough to go to cash. In coming weeks/months I imagine getting long stocks again will be the idea though.
May 16, 200917 yr IMO Martin Armstrong does not understand chaos theory or the mathematics of complex numbers but this might be of interest to you traders http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/m...nding-real.html
May 21, 200917 yr Author Thats not the kind of info Im personally interested in, but thanks anyway. Theres alot to be said for looking at technicals, I however, predominantly use only price, fibonacci and trend lines. Bon Chance.
May 25, 200917 yr Author well I believe it[EURUSD] will eventually go beyond Dec '08's high, but resistance on the way lies at c.3850 and c.4200 or c.4300 3850 is gone, next up is .4200 then .4300
May 31, 200917 yr Author Tbond yields bounced. $ continued lower. Stocks still consolidating. Consolidation = Continuation, but Im still very cautious about being long equities here.
June 3, 200917 yr Author EEM - Ishare Emerging Markets fund has done well. It could find some difficulty climbing beyond $32.80, or perhaps $34.50 I feel. Pretty vicious reversal off $34.82(and actually on closer inspection the key level i was interested in lies at $34.62), so about 1% out. Lets see how significant it is
June 3, 200917 yr Author I had support on DXY at 79.80 and 78.30. Low today was 78.33 which is nice(.4338 on EURUSD) this support is good for a bounce(evidently!) but in coming weeks I imagine it will go.
June 10, 200917 yr Author [...]US BANKS still churning below those highs, and Im still incline to think a deeper correction might creep in, and therefore induce corrections in Indicies too, which have buy an large churned around making marginal new highs too. not neccessary! Equities all look very nice still, i still favour mining and finance related. Im out of both now. Recognise the possibility they could print higher highs, but the risk of a more protracted sell off soon, is enough to go to cash. In coming weeks/months I imagine getting long stocks again will be the idea though. Equity markets have essentially been churning around their highs for the last month. Consolidation = Continuation. Usually, but I still have nagging doubts. I think the US BANK Index could lead equities weaker, perhaps straight down, perhaps after a pop up to c$40.50. A break above previous highs is obviously bullish
June 10, 200917 yr Author Does anyone know of a decent site to get Thai SET charts? I can only find US indices as below. Im not very convinced about the accuracy of the Volume, although 2blnTHB is roughly $50m, which I could believe is the total Thai turnover on a good day? Many thanks.
June 18, 200917 yr Author Equity markets have essentially been churning around their highs for the last month. Consolidation = Continuation. Usually, but I still have nagging doubts.I think the US BANK Index could lead equities weaker, perhaps straight down, perhaps after a pop up to c$40.50. A break above previous highs is obviously bullish Equity markets have corrected. US BANK Index traced out the 1st light blue path MINING has lead the decline thus far, not BANKS. It was always going to be 1 of the 2 I guess they could get a little bounce.
June 18, 200917 yr Author Pretty vicious reversal off $34.82(and actually on closer inspection the key level i was interested in lies at $34.62), so about 1% out. Lets see how significant it is A decline of c10% thus far. Im not totally convinced its over yet though. Until the $34.82 high is taken out anything can happen
June 27, 200917 yr Author USD still consolidating. Possibility of a marginal new low before the Bids come back into the market. US BANKs continue to work lower. Possibility of a bit more bounce before Offers take over. UK MINING may continue to bounce, perhaps quite vigorously, before its next wave down. TBond yields may bounce, but should continue down too. Theres a theme here; the trend change that occured little over a week ago will continue, some minor twists excepted
June 27, 200917 yr US BANKs continue to work lower. Possibility of a bit more bounce before Offers take over. 5 more US banks went under today 6/26/2009 I think that may be a new 1 day record Makes it about 45 failed banks this year so far http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html Mirae Bank, Los Angeles, CA 57332 Metro Pacific Bank, Irvine, CA 57893 Horizon Bank, Pine City, MN 9744 Neighborhood Community Bank, Newnan, GA 35285 Community Bank of West Georgia, Villa Rica, GA 57436 Edited June 27, 200917 yr by flying
June 27, 200917 yr Author Thats interesting as an after-thought, but how many will go bankrupt next week, and how will the market react? For example that may be a daily record, but the Bank Index closed up 0.5% on the day, just off its highs. Clearly the market is'nt interested. As an anecdote it comes as no surprise to me, I think plenty more will go. Lets try to make the research pay
June 27, 200917 yr Lets try to make the research pay So just bet on the too big boys Seems like everything that is not too big too fail will be allowed to do so
June 28, 200917 yr Author Lets try to make the research pay So just bet on the too big boys Seems like everything that is not too big too fail will be allowed to do so That makes sense, a logical suggestion When C was $1, had you thought that and stuck to it you will of had a good entry. However markets are'nt sensible or logical - C and BAC hit their highs over a month ago, as detailed througout this thread. I think getting back into Banks will be a good idea at some stage
June 29, 200917 yr Interesting (since I agree with it, I suppose) thesis IMO here - http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/gues...-deflation.html
June 30, 200917 yr Author Yup some good points In the last few sessions we've seen stocks and commods rise, yet also bonds and the USD hasnt moved. One side needs to play catch-up.
July 16, 200916 yr Author Yup some good points In the last few sessions we've seen stocks and commods rise, yet also bonds and the USD hasnt moved. One side needs to play catch-up. well stocks and commods played catch up to the downside, and now all have about-turned; BUNDs down, $ stationary/slightly down, stocks and commods up. Im holding some very nervous mining and insurance stock longs, not sure how much further equities can go without a correction. SPX 937 maybe?
August 9, 200916 yr Author Im holding some very nervous mining and insurance stock longs, not sure how much further equities can go without a correction. SPX 937 maybe? Well, the nerves abated as prices rose, relentlessly I admittedly bailed out far too early, ce la vie. I feel that the risk now is that equities correct along with C&C, and the $ finds a bid. TBonds will likey find a bid soon too. I had USDIndex support at 77.3 and 74.6, the bounce last week started from 77.43, so perhaps thats close enough, if it fails it puts 74.6 back on target to my eye. Bon Chance
August 10, 200916 yr Im holding some very nervous mining and insurance stock longs, not sure how much further equities can go without a correction. SPX 937 maybe? Well, the nerves abated as prices rose, relentlessly I admittedly bailed out far too early, ce la vie. I feel that the risk now is that equities correct along with C&C, and the $ finds a bid. TBonds will likey find a bid soon too. I had USDIndex support at 77.3 and 74.6, the bounce last week started from 77.43, so perhaps thats close enough, if it fails it puts 74.6 back on target to my eye. Bon Chance Don't fall asleep, badge. The party - if there is to be one - will be the $ Long. I'm Long the dollar via short GBPUSD - on 60-min. Will switch to Daily if/when Dollar Index close > 79.52 (will add 1 full Lot) and > 81.12 (will add 3 full Lots) Why catching this bottom is important? See the 5-wave Dollar Index decline from March 4-09? That's a C-wave completing the total A-B-C correction from Nov 21-08. The next upwave is Wave 3. Nobody should miss this wave. If wrong, the progressive stop on 60-min. takes me out - But thus far, and until proven wrong, the bottom has been cott.
August 11, 200916 yr Author Thanks for the reminder Captain, I however disagree with your elliott wave labels. In anycase I was looking for support on $Index at 77.3 and it came in at 77.43 as posted above. I too am short cable and eurusd, although not with ideal entries, as my limit weren't hit due to the fact i was expecting a tad more $ weakness first(down to 77.3). In an ideal world Id see equities tread water his week, perhaps giving the bears a bit more excitement, first, then a marginal new high/bounce end of this week/early next. This may well provide a time for a short in stocks. Likewise it would be nice to see Long Bond yields top out after perhaps one last marginal new high this/next week. Good luck
August 12, 200916 yr Author [...] I feel that the risk now is that equities correct along with C&C, and the $ finds a bid. TBonds will likey find a bid soon too.I had USDIndex support at 77.3 and 74.6, the bounce last week started from 77.43, so perhaps thats close enough, if it fails it puts 74.6 back on target to my eye. Bon Chance TBonds are up c300 points, energy and metals are off c5%, carry currencies are off c5%, USDIndex is up c200 points from the low, equity markets have reversed sharply(German DAX off 5%), the particular areas of interest; banks, mining, are off slightly more. lets see how much furtehr this goes and not get carried away, yet
Create an account or sign in to comment