LTR Health Insurance : Self-insurance with US$100,000 Bank Deposit

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TBonds are up c300 points, energy and metals are off c5%, carry currencies are off c5%, USDIndex is up c200 points from the low, equity markets have reversed sharply(German DAX off 5%), the particular areas of interest; banks, mining, are off slightly more.

lets see how much furtehr this goes and not get carried away, yet

Tbonds have pulled back 150pips, energy is 2$ off its highs, metals are at their prev. highs(copper new highs), USDIndex hasnt pulled back that much as on now, and some broad stock indices are approaching their highs.

All hangs in the balance still to my eye.

Will be watching US BANK Index BKX for some leadership perhaps GL

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Im holding some very nervous mining and insurance stock longs, not sure how much further equities can go without a correction. SPX 937 maybe?

Well, the nerves abated as prices rose, relentlessly I admittedly bailed out far too early, ce la vie. I feel that the risk now is that equities correct along with C&C, and the $ finds a bid. TBonds will likey find a bid soon too.

I had USDIndex support at 77.3 and 74.6, the bounce last week started from 77.43, so perhaps thats close enough, if it fails it puts 74.6 back on target to my eye.

Bon Chance

well stocks and C+C had a minor correction, TBonds have rallied. C&C now seem to be finding buyers, and the DXY has broken below 77.3, so 74.6 is in view. TBonds curiously continue to be bought though.

Status Quo still rules; risk is in

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As a proxy for the USDIndex(as EURUSD accounts for over 50% I believe), I think either the EURUSD will turn down at a fib retracement level of its most recent fall, or a slightly higher high coulb be printed than that of Dec '08. Around 1.4850 perhaps, forming a Bear flag, and ushering in renewed USD strength

High registered last week in EURUSD was 1.4845. It ushered in a 285pip surge in USD strength.

As with comments on 'US$ Collapse thread', ideally I would have preferred a slightly lower low on DXY(USD Index), which may induce a slightly higher high in EURUSD; perhaps to the 1.4950 area.

Either way, a significant USD advance could ensue soon perhaps.

Edited September 28, 2009 by badge

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^

Well EURUSD pulled back over 450pips from that cited resistance. Being 4pips out isnt bad for fortune telling, 6 months prior

I still have DXY supp at 75.6(pretty much where it is right now), then 74.5 and 74.

EURUSD has res at .4905 and .5015, and USDCHF supp at .0120 and .0050

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...following on from above, DXY found stiff support in November at 74.17, some 0.25% off the 74 level quoted above, thats quite close I guess, but a large miss by my own standards

In anycase DXY has rallied just under 500pips, some 6.5% and EURUSD has lead the major weakness decling over 1100pips, some 7.25%.

Stocks have been weak, however some short term indicators are looking over sold, and some studies are at places that have induced reversals back into buying before. Major benchmarks have largely been flat the last few days, reflecting these issues.

If any further buying ensues, beyond a timely technical bounce, perhaps a new marginal high is required on indices like S&P500 - higher high by 10handles perhaps - before a more significant correction takes hold?

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[...]

Stocks have been weak, however some short term indicators are looking over sold, and some studies are at places that have induced reversals back into buying before. Major benchmarks have largely been flat the last few days, reflecting these issues.

If any further buying ensues, beyond a timely technical bounce, perhaps a new marginal high is required on indices like S&P500 - higher high by 10handles perhaps - before a more significant correction takes hold?

The sideways churn was capped by further buying, producing a few days mild gains, early this week; nothing more than a technical bounce. Normal service has resumed for now