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It's The Calm Before The Storm

bingobongo
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mommysboy Ruby Member

mommysboy

Posted
Posted
Maybe it would be best if you did this for a few weeks, might rid yourself of a few illusions about the nature oflife and about Thais.

Make no mistake, for Thailand there is one dreadful correction happening, and it will be very painful for a nation that has been softened by a false consumer boom, and weakened by awful leadership.

I mix with the 'average Thai' believe me what's happening is/will hit them hard.

Guess there is not much any govt. could do in the face of a financial tsunami such as this, but I am struck by how the UK Govt in particular has responded. What exactly has the Thai Govt done for its own?

Enjoy your tree :o .

What has the UK done besides throw fuel on the fire? "Quantintative easing" or running the print press does nothing but rob from the poor to give to the rich. It destroys the one thing the normal man has to stay on his feet..his/her "money" gets destroyed via inflation or dilution. The UK is doing wonders for their currency right now.

The best thing a Government could do when they're starring at a crisis is absolutely nothing, let the market decide what it is going to do.

A good point this, the trouble is as soon as one country does something, eg, devalue, another country needs to follow suit. It becomes a free for all. The trouble is smart operators like the Chinese, S.Koreans, and Brits will take advantage of weakened currencies through aggressive under cutting. These, too, are countries that can fight with their backs to the wall.

Thailand always has agriculture, that's a saving grace for sure.

But my guess is that many long term suppliers will set up other bases where assemby, maybe in Kampuchea, China, or even S.Korea which will now be a very attractive location. It's not just about what's happening now, look what Thailand was doing b4 the crunch- it had become a very unstable country, with escalating costs and an unfriendly attitude towards foreigners.

So yes, I guess it will be back to the farms, and it will be interesting to see how the Thais respond to this 'rural idyll'. My guess is that after being seduced by farang bucks, and getting used to mod cons, they will respond pretty much as the average westerner would, with sadness, genuine pain, and anger. Maybe in the long run it will do Thailand good: my general impression is that these are people who really don't know lack at all in the western sense.

Equally, we must be aware that the price could be a great deal of human suffering, increased disease and of course. It's because of this that I tend to ridicule the 'they'll be alright whooping it up in the paddy fields' sort of postings.

londonthai Platinum Member

londonthai

Posted
Posted

there is no rural idyll, but at least getting back to the family home in the village gives free shelter and possibility of growing food, even as self-sufficiency if not for sale.

of course the existing social problems (alcoholism, drug abuse, petty crime) will rise, but there is no possibility of famin, even with freak weather conditions.

Jake1 Explorer Member

Jake1

Posted
Posted
Maybe it would be best if you did this for a few weeks, might rid yourself of a few illusions about the nature oflife and about Thais.

Make no mistake, for Thailand there is one dreadful correction happening, and it will be very painful for a nation that has been softened by a false consumer boom, and weakened by awful leadership.

I mix with the 'average Thai' believe me what's happening is/will hit them hard.

Guess there is not much any govt. could do in the face of a financial tsunami such as this, but I am struck by how the UK Govt in particular has responded. What exactly has the Thai Govt done for its own?

Enjoy your tree :D .

What has the UK done besides throw fuel on the fire? "Quantintative easing" or running the print press does nothing but rob from the poor to give to the rich. It destroys the one thing the normal man has to stay on his feet..his/her "money" gets destroyed via inflation or dilution. The UK is doing wonders for their currency right now.

The best thing a Government could do when they're starring at a crisis is absolutely nothing, let the market decide what it is going to do.

A good point this, the trouble is as soon as one country does something, eg, devalue, another country needs to follow suit. It becomes a free for all. The trouble is smart operators like the Chinese, S.Koreans, and Brits will take advantage of weakened currencies through aggressive under cutting. These, too, are countries that can fight with their backs to the wall.

Thailand always has agriculture, that's a saving grace for sure.

But my guess is that many long term suppliers will set up other bases where assemby, maybe in Kampuchea, China, or even S.Korea which will now be a very attractive location. It's not just about what's happening now, look what Thailand was doing b4 the crunch- it had become a very unstable country, with escalating costs and an unfriendly attitude towards foreigners.

So yes, I guess it will be back to the farms, and it will be interesting to see how the Thais respond to this 'rural idyll'. My guess is that after being seduced by farang bucks, and getting used to mod cons, they will respond pretty much as the average westerner would, with sadness, genuine pain, and anger. Maybe in the long run it will do Thailand good: my general impression is that these are people who really don't know lack at all in the western sense.

Equally, we must be aware that the price could be a great deal of human suffering, increased disease and of course. It's because of this that I tend to ridicule the 'they'll be alright whooping it up in the paddy fields' sort of postings.

It's one of those.."The Bigger they are, the harder they fall" sort of deals we're running into here. Thailand does not have very far to fall. If things slow down that much..90% of Thai's have a Village to go back to, they have a farm, they have a community to return to. They also have a solid manufacturing base

The U.K but probably even more so the U.S doesn't have anything to fall back on. In the U.S we don't have the farms to return to nor do we know how to farm. The strong communities are not there and we sold off our manufacturing base a long time ago.

An Economy based on Services, Consumption, and easy Credit is not a viable Economy. Thailand is in much better shape moving forward then the U.S or U.K...but who knows, maybe the Chinese will lend us some more $ and we can continue to live off of the sweat of Asia :o

mommysboy Ruby Member

mommysboy

Posted
Posted
Maybe it would be best if you did this for a few weeks, might rid yourself of a few illusions about the nature oflife and about Thais.

Make no mistake, for Thailand there is one dreadful correction happening, and it will be very painful for a nation that has been softened by a false consumer boom, and weakened by awful leadership.

I mix with the 'average Thai' believe me what's happening is/will hit them hard.

Guess there is not much any govt. could do in the face of a financial tsunami such as this, but I am struck by how the UK Govt in particular has responded. What exactly has the Thai Govt done for its own?

Enjoy your tree :D .

What has the UK done besides throw fuel on the fire? "Quantintative easing" or running the print press does nothing but rob from the poor to give to the rich. It destroys the one thing the normal man has to stay on his feet..his/her "money" gets destroyed via inflation or dilution. The UK is doing wonders for their currency right now.

The best thing a Government could do when they're starring at a crisis is absolutely nothing, let the market decide what it is going to do.

A good point this, the trouble is as soon as one country does something, eg, devalue, another country needs to follow suit. It becomes a free for all. The trouble is smart operators like the Chinese, S.Koreans, and Brits will take advantage of weakened currencies through aggressive under cutting. These, too, are countries that can fight with their backs to the wall.

Thailand always has agriculture, that's a saving grace for sure.

But my guess is that many long term suppliers will set up other bases where assemby, maybe in Kampuchea, China, or even S.Korea which will now be a very attractive location. It's not just about what's happening now, look what Thailand was doing b4 the crunch- it had become a very unstable country, with escalating costs and an unfriendly attitude towards foreigners.

So yes, I guess it will be back to the farms, and it will be interesting to see how the Thais respond to this 'rural idyll'. My guess is that after being seduced by farang bucks, and getting used to mod cons, they will respond pretty much as the average westerner would, with sadness, genuine pain, and anger. Maybe in the long run it will do Thailand good: my general impression is that these are people who really don't know lack at all in the western sense.

Equally, we must be aware that the price could be a great deal of human suffering, increased disease and of course. It's because of this that I tend to ridicule the 'they'll be alright whooping it up in the paddy fields' sort of postings.

It's one of those.."The Bigger they are, the harder they fall" sort of deals we're running into here. Thailand does not have very far to fall. If things slow down that much..90% of Thai's have a Village to go back to, they have a farm, they have a community to return to. They also have a solid manufacturing base

The U.K but probably even more so the U.S doesn't have anything to fall back on. In the U.S we don't have the farms to return to nor do we know how to farm. The strong communities are not there and we sold off our manufacturing base a long time ago.

An Economy based on Services, Consumption, and easy Credit is not a viable Economy. Thailand is in much better shape moving forward then the U.S or U.K...but who knows, maybe the Chinese will lend us some more $ and we can continue to live off of the sweat of Asia :o

I really don't agree with this at all. Firstly because all economies are in the cart, Thailand included. Also because of the assumption that UK (possibly US too) has no manuafacturing, not so it comprises 20% GDP. Chemicals/medicine, arms(guns,bombs), high tec/high skill. And anyway, export driven countries look set to have it worse,eg, Germany, Japan, and now Thailand too.

The 'bigger they are', again an illusion, Thailand at last count was the 25th most developed economy. They just like to assume the role of world affluent beggar :D .

think_too_mut Platinum Member

think_too_mut

Posted
Posted

The Bank of Thailand has previously forecast that 1.07 million people -- or 2.8 percent of the total workforce -- would lose their jobs if the Thai economy registered zero growth this year.

Thailand's unemployment rate was 1.4 percent in 2008, the National Statistical Office of Thailand website shows.

That's nothing. Unemployment is going to reach 1 million in Australia, that's 10%.

The difference is - that million of jobless Australians will not have their family to default to and dip into family's rice bowl.

londonthai Platinum Member

londonthai

Posted
Posted (edited)

as the crisis said to be greater than this in 1928 and last longer, nobody can be sure how big unemployement will be. It's estimated that 3mln (10% of workforce) will be jobless by the end of 2010, in thailand I would expect worse than this, even if some unemployed return to the villages.

I would think, that a lot of unproductive low payed jobs of unskilled labour (blowing a whistle in car parks, opening doors for clients etc) will be gone the first.

I would rather be unemployed in australia claiming benefits, than in thailand

Edited by londonthai
midas Ruby Member

midas

Posted
Posted

And if they do return to the family rice farm - who keeps up the

monthly payments on that shiny new pick up truck or motor bike ? :o

waza Ruby Member

waza

Posted
Posted
>>>>> yes,and where will that leave us,expats and tourists alike?

Best case it will be more dangerous to live here, farang and thai alike

Worse case a free helicoptor ride departing from the top of your Embassy

My wife mentioned half of her family were layed off over the last month and cant find another job.

I liked that one

waza Ruby Member

waza

Posted
Posted (edited)

I hope, when the unemployed return to the village to live under the trees, that there isnt a recruiter with a red shirt, an AK 47 and an IOU from Dr Evil, for them all.

Edited by waza
Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted
as the crisis said to be greater than this in 1928 and last longer, nobody can be sure how big unemployement will be. It's estimated that 3mln (10% of workforce) will be jobless by the end of 2010, in thailand I would expect worse than this, even if some unemployed return to the villages.

I would think, that a lot of unproductive low payed jobs of unskilled labour (blowing a whistle in car parks, opening doors for clients etc) will be gone the first.

I would rather be unemployed in australia claiming benefits, than in thailand

and your point is? :o

londonthai Platinum Member

londonthai

Posted
Posted
million of jobless Australians will not have their family to default to and dip into family's rice bowl.

my post was in relation to the post just above mine.

unemployed in a rich countries have a chance for upgrading their education for free or for public works - in poorer countries, like thailand there are no social benefits and no any other help, exept the family

cclub75 Platinum Member

cclub75

Posted
Posted
as the crisis said to be greater than this in 1928 and last longer, nobody can be sure how big unemployement will be. It's estimated that 3mln (10% of workforce) will be jobless by the end of 2010, in thailand I would expect worse than this, even if some unemployed return to the villages.

I would think, that a lot of unproductive low payed jobs of unskilled labour (blowing a whistle in car parks, opening doors for clients etc) will be gone the first.

I would rather be unemployed in australia claiming benefits, than in thailand

and your point is? :o

His point is actually very interesting.

Westerns countries have "social safety nets". It costs a lot (Europe...) sure but it protects people. For a while.

In Thailand, zero, NIL. You lose your job, you are on your own. Or you become a burden (another one) to your family. But wait a minute... before you were the provider of your family... Hum things get complicated...

So his point is : he would rather be unemployed in Australia, than in Thailand.

Plain common sense. But as usual, common sense seems a little bit too obvious for you... isn't it ?

SoiGirlHunter Advanced Member

SoiGirlHunter

Posted
Posted

>>>Hope they didn't ask you for a loan. :o

Not yet, been practicing slowly raising my shoe to face level though, i hope they dont take it personally

The unemployment in the USA is running at 14% in reality, dont believe the governments numbers as they are cooked.

Jake1 Explorer Member

Jake1

Posted
Posted
as the crisis said to be greater than this in 1928 and last longer, nobody can be sure how big unemployement will be. It's estimated that 3mln (10% of workforce) will be jobless by the end of 2010, in thailand I would expect worse than this, even if some unemployed return to the villages.

I would think, that a lot of unproductive low payed jobs of unskilled labour (blowing a whistle in car parks, opening doors for clients etc) will be gone the first.

I would rather be unemployed in australia claiming benefits, than in thailand

and your point is? :o

His point is actually very interesting.

Westerns countries have "social safety nets". It costs a lot (Europe...) sure but it protects people. For a while.

In Thailand, zero, NIL. You lose your job, you are on your own. Or you become a burden (another one) to your family. But wait a minute... before you were the provider of your family... Hum things get complicated...

So his point is : he would rather be unemployed in Australia, than in Thailand.

Plain common sense. But as usual, common sense seems a little bit too obvious for you... isn't it ?

But when the Western Plan B gets wiped out because we're not exporting and Asia no longer has the money to lend us..we're stuck. We don't have a farm to go to. We're full of Social programs, benefits, and serivces but when it's no longer funded we got nothing but a print press to spew out worthless $'s. The Thai's will be able to cope, a lot of westerners are going to be SOL.

Australia is in a better position than the U.S and will probably be fine in the long run...I talking more about the U.S here

midas Ruby Member

midas

Posted
Posted
His point is actually very interesting.

Westerns countries have "social safety nets". It costs a lot (Europe...) sure but it protects people. For a while.

In Thailand, zero, NIL. You lose your job, you are on your own. Or you become a burden (another one) to your family. But wait a minute... before you were the provider of your family... Hum things get complicated...

So his point is : he would rather be unemployed in Australia, than in Thailand.

Plain common sense. But as usual, common sense seems a little bit too obvious for you... isn't it ?

Yes but I would not feel very safe betting on this lasting forever even in Oz.

The Thai's have family values which we dont in the West and one morning

you might wake up in Oz and find the "social safety nets" are no longer there.

Naam Star Member

Naam

Posted
Posted
His point is actually very interesting.

Westerns countries have "social safety nets". It costs a lot (Europe...) sure but it protects people. For a while.

In Thailand, zero, NIL. You lose your job, you are on your own. Or you become a burden (another one) to your family. But wait a minute... before you were the provider of your family... Hum things get complicated...

So his point is : he would rather be unemployed in Australia, than in Thailand.

Plain common sense. But as usual, common sense seems a little bit too obvious for you... isn't it ?

Yes but I would not feel very safe betting on this lasting forever even in Oz.

The Thai's have family values which we dont in the West and one morning

you might wake up in Oz and find the "social safety nets" are no longer there.

and that could apply to most countries, if not all.

yumidesign Silver Member

yumidesign

Posted
Posted

Yes but I would not feel very safe betting on this lasting forever even in Oz.

The Thai's have family values which we dont in the West and one morning

you might wake up in Oz and find the "social safety nets" are no longer there.

OMG the sky is falling again. Buck up it may never happen. Check out the BKK Post today it says 3% negative growth rate is forecast, read much more than that!!!!!!! much more

think_too_mut Platinum Member

think_too_mut

Posted
Posted

Small % figures (3%) confuse people into thinking it is negligable.

What is 3% negative growth? It's not 30%?

It is more serious than that.

To absorb 3 million new workers a year, China has to grow 8%. It is said it will grow only 3% in 2009. That means, new 3 million won't be able to find work + currently employed 5 million will join them too.

It's 8 million, almost 5 times entire working age population of New Zealand or Norway.

And that was "only" 3% positive growth.

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