Chickens Coming Home To Roost

[GuestHouse]

One of the things about visiting Thailand over a period of time v living in Thailand permanently over the same period is the perception one has of 'step changes'.

A year ago Thailand's roads were awash with red number plates - not so now. When discussing this with a Thai friend over a few beers last night he remarked that the cheap finance (and in particular the repayment holiday deals) had all dried up - Cars bought on these deals a year ago are now being subject to interest and or repayments.

Sounds to me like a lot of Finance Chickens are likely to be heading home to roost.

[cclub75]

A year ago Thailand's roads were awash with red number plates - not so now. When discussing this with a Thai friend over a few beers last night he remarked that the cheap finance (and in particular the repayment holiday deals) had all dried up - Cars bought on these deals a year ago are now being subject to interest and or repayments.

A simple chart will do the the trick.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2009/03/20...rst-two-months/

It's not a "feeling". It's not a "perception". It's the harsh reality of... numbers.

Edited March 21, 2009 by cclub75

[neverdie]

Sure the production numbers have fallen....as has sales, but at scanning various papers and stuff, theres still plenty of offers for cheap finance ....2.75% etc?

[cclub75]

Sure the production numbers have fallen....as has sales, but at scanning various papers and stuff, theres still plenty of offers for cheap finance ....2.75% etc?

Yes that's true. Soon, buy 1 get 1 free. Promotion, interest rates at 0... desperation.

But the real question is : even with a 0 % interest rates is somebody freshly fired, with no income, would be willing to buy a new car ?

I know what you'd answer : sure, in Thailand no problem.

But more seriously, this is one the problems, absolutely not addressed in the US, Europe : people lose their jobs.

Who is naive enough to believe that the economy can start up again ? Someone unemployed will not buy a house. Nor a car.

[khundon]

Sure the production numbers have fallen....as has sales, but at scanning various papers and stuff, theres still plenty of offers for cheap finance ....2.75% etc?

Hi Neverdie

We bought new Izusu Adventure master 7 seater all leather 3 litre auto in 2002 for 1,170.400 when we were getting 76 Baht to GBP.

I wonder what they cost now (I know it is now called something stupid like MU7).

After a year and 9000K on the clock, I gave it to Mother in Law, lots of brownie points.

Bought a (Bank snatch back) Honda motor bike with less than 1,000k on the clock last year for Baht 16,000 in Pathum Thani, for sister in law. They had loads on their books, from people who had bought on finance and only made 2-3 payments.

Will cars get cheaper in Thailand, or will they do the same as all things and put up the prices?

Car industry in the UK, EU and USA in free fall and they have just cancelled the London Motor Show, the first time in it's history, as the big companies cannot afford to show their cars.

Saw a brand new £29,000 car in UK last week, going for £9000.!!

Prices in UK are a rip off, in 2000 I imported an Audi TT 225 Bhp from Belgium for £27,010, the list price in Audi UK was £33,000 and they would not drop price for cash. I saved myself £7000 and it was delivered to my door on Xmas eve.

You lose £1000, as soon as you drive the dam_n things out of the showroom, in UK.

To many models and not enough buyers, just like the house market in Thailand.

I spoke to a Ford dealer last week and he has over 40 cars on his forecourt that he can't shift and is paying Ford for the privilege. He expects to go out of business in a couple of months.

0% finance is still a bad deal, as you have to make a deposit up front or a balloon payment at the end. If you lose your job before car is paid for, they will chase you for the rest.

[flying]

Yes that's true. Soon, buy 1 get 1 free. Promotion, interest rates at 0... desperation.

But the real question is : even with a 0 % interest rates is somebody freshly fired, with no income, would be willing to buy a new car ?

I know what you'd answer : sure, in Thailand no problem.

But more seriously, this is one the problems, absolutely not addressed in the US, Europe : people lose their jobs.

Who is naive enough to believe that the economy can start up again ? Someone unemployed will not buy a house. Nor a car.

Just last night a friend from USA wrote to say how the local Thai restaurants had raised prices because the food distributors had all raised prices. The problem is compounded by customers also coming in less due to less work/less jobs + lay offs. To top it off her main income customers......tourists are also drying up.

Self fulfilling isn't it?

[eljeque]

There is a "new?" business activity in the USA whereby car dealers borrow from any source, paying 9% / year, against their cars in stock. They borrow only 50% of automobile retail price.

[Naam]

There is a "new?" business activity in the USA whereby car dealers borrow from any source, paying 9% / year, against their cars in stock. They borrow only 50% of automobile retail price.

that system is not really new. i know it since 1990 when i discussed with a [then] neighbour investment opportunities.