Will Thaksins Red Shirts Topple The Government Before Songkran?

[Jingthing]

Big bad Mr. T has proclaimed he intends to topple the current Thai government led by PM Abhisit before this Songkran. That is days away, folks. Will he succeed? What happens if he fails, does Thaksin decline in face even more than now? Personally, I don't think he will succeed, but who knows what tricks he has up his sleeve.

To be clear, the poll is about whether you think he will succeed, NOT whether you WANT him to succeed.

Edited April 1, 2009 by Jingthing

[h90]

Big bad Mr. T has proclaimed he intends to topple the current Thai government led by PM Abhisit before this Songkran. That is days away, folks. Will he succeed? What happens if he fails, does Thaksin decline in face even more than now? Personally, I don't think he will succeed, but who knows what tricks he has up his sleeve.

To be clear, the poll is about whether you think he will succeed, NOT whether you WANT him to succeed.

I don't see how he want to do it.

He can get there maybe 50 or say 100K people. --> no problem for the government

he can burn there some cars, having violence on the street-->problem but they won't resign

he can make a military coup-->I think not possible at the moment

So I don't see some way for him to get that done=vote no

[Jingthing]

I agree, on the surface it does not appear he has the key support he needs to pull that off, namely the military. But maybe he knows something we don't, maybe he has a faction of the military under his control, in which case, we are looking at the beginning of a real civil war. He is clearly very desperate now and acting out in a very radical way. What is he thinking? What is his real endgame?

Thaksin sets rally deadline

By: AEKARACH SATTABURUTH

Published: 1/04/2009 at 12:00 AM

Newspaper section: News

Anti-government forces will end their rally outside Government House before Songkran, a Puea Thai member says. The source, a member of Puea Thai's strategy team, said former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra wanted the rally to succeed in its aim to oust the Abhisit administration before Songkran, the Thai new year, begins on April 13.

Thaksin has called for protesters to pour in from every province to join the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship protest in Bangkok.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1...-rally-deadline

Edited April 1, 2009 by Jingthing

[abdulrahman]

last try?He is getting desperate,and financing the apparatus is going to be costly.

My reflection:if he succeeds who is to pay the bill?Not the military,of course!

[bobbin]

Enough already with the anti-Thaksin diatribes, Jingthing.

You are becoming a dilettante rabble-rouser, rolling out your bias on a regular basis.

Plus....you are politically naive, as a deal will surely be done at some point. It is the way of the world. Especially, it is the way it is done in Thailand.

Just sit back and watch it unfold. No need to get all upset.

[LooseCannon]

Enough already with the anti-Thaksin diatribes, Jingthing.

You are becoming a dilettante rabble-rouser, rolling out your bias on a regular basis.

Plus....you are politically naive, as a deal will surely be done at some point. It is the way of the world. Especially, it is the way it is done in Thailand.

Just sit back and watch it unfold. No need to get all upset.

That's not the point of the poll. Thaksin has thrown down the gauntlet & JT has merely opened the topic up for debate.

Constructive argument on your part should be able to sway the fence-sitters & maybe convert some of the true believers.

I doubt that there would be many people on this forum who would not expect some sort of deal to be negotiated between the govt. & Thaksin at some time in the future.

Disclaimer: I do not support PAD/Democrats/Thaksin/Red Shirts or any other Thai political organization.

[neverdie]

I wish someone would pull the 'triggor' on this guy, so the rest of Thailand could get on with it.

[Samuian]

Big bad Mr. T has proclaimed he intends to topple the current Thai government led by PM Abhisit before this Songkran. That is days away, folks. Will he succeed? What happens if he fails, does Thaksin decline in face even more than now? Personally, I don't think he will succeed, but who knows what tricks he has up his sleeve.

To be clear, the poll is about whether you think he will succeed, NOT whether you WANT him to succeed.

Well, he is a failure and how much more of face to lose than he has already!?

The number of people NOT caring about his future, whereabouts will grow daily exponentially, that is HIS problem!

[LooseCannon]

Well, he is a failure and how much more of face to lose than he has already!?

The number of people NOT caring about his future, whereabouts will grow daily exponentially, that is HIS problem!

and in direct proportion to the decline in his wealth.

[Ulysses G.]

I hope that they do cut a deal. I rather have the new guy get a shot at fixing the country, but I don't blame Thaksin for being unable to accept the way that things have turned out here.

Give him a FAIR amount of money back and allow him to live in Thailand, but no more politics.

Edited April 2, 2009 by Ulysses G.

[LooseCannon]

I hope that they do cut a deal. I rather have the new guy get a shot at fixing the country, but I don't blame Thaksin for being unable to accept the way that things have turned out here.

Give him a FAIR amount of money back and allow him to live in Thailand, but no more politics.

In the past the unwritten rule seemed to be that deposed generals & other assorted despots would go quietly into exile, keep their head down, & after a suitable length of time they would for the most part discreetly return, maybe undergo a little rehabilitation, & live out the rest of their lives in relative obscurity.

I wonder if Thaksin is capable of doing this?

[rixalex]

Give him a FAIR amount of money back and allow him to live in Thailand, but no more politics.

How on earth would you get him to keep his word? History tells us he's happy to go back on it.

[PhilHarries]

I wish someone would pull the 'triggor' on this guy, so the rest of Thailand could get on with it.

Agreed, also then ThaiVisa could get back to discussing important subjects like the best hamburger in Nakon Nayok, or hairdressers in Sriracha.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Give him a FAIR amount of money back and allow him to live in Thailand, but no more politics.

How on earth would you get him to keep his word? History tells us he's happy to go back on it.

Not to mention that he SHOULD be allowed in politics. He's achieved so much for so many people; letting those people down would be undemocratic. Also the current constitution and general structure is so that he couldn't become all dominant again. (And he must realize by now that this won't be allowed to happen).

So I completely agree with Bobbin. Also some posters here are so obsessed with Thaksin I honestly wonder why that is.

I still voted 'no', of course. Just won't happen, you need the military and you-know-which-institution to pull off a coup or forced change in govt.

Edited April 2, 2009 by WinnieTheKhwai

[BiteMe]

I'm still waiting for his solution that he say he know how to turn the economic good...still waiting.. but probably i'll vote for a "no".

[Samuian]

I hope that they do cut a deal. I rather have the new guy get a shot at fixing the country, but I don't blame Thaksin for being unable to accept the way that things have turned out here.

Give him a FAIR amount of money back and allow him to live in Thailand, but no more politics.

Remember "his assets" are only frozen till now!

An how many times this guy HIMSELF has claimed, promised, said that he will stay out of politics!?

if he's allowed back into the country, he will NOT stop unless he is stopped again!

it's his little blown out of proportions ego, his unquenchable thirst for "all out power" a

nd his megalomaniac hunger for money, wealth, influence, meddling, ruling... he is possessed

by his greed for unlimited power!

How could he ever 'sit back an watch"?

How?

[rixalex]

Not to mention that he SHOULD be allowed in politics.

Convicted criminals SHOULDN"T be allowed in politics, much less run a country, which seems to be what you are in favour of.

[Ulysses G.]

How could he ever 'sit back an watch"?

How?

It looks like a very good possibility that he will end up in jail with nothing if he keeps trying to regain power. It is amazing how such a strong possibility can straighten out the most power hungry of us.

Living freely in Thailand with billions of baht for the rest of your life is a lot better than sharing a Thai jail cell with 100 other guys.

[anonymouse]

All I know is that Thai politics are less transparent than those in the West, who knows what is going on behind the scenes, Is it just bluff or does Thaksin have something up his sleeve?

He's starting to remind me of a Bond villain or <deleted> Manchu, one of those bad guys in the movies who plot world destruction from an underwater base in the pacific.

[rixalex]

Living freely in Thailand with billions of baht for the rest of your life is a lot better than sharing a Thai jail cell with 100 other guys.

What you are stating makes a lot of sense to us ordinary folk who aren't extraordinarily rich. With more money than you could spend in your lifetime, why indeed not lie back, enjoy life, pamper your every whim and never have to lift a finger? But you seem to be forgetting all that history has taught us about Thaksin. He has an ego that's as big as his fortune, and he won't quit until he has won.

We only have to look back as far as a few months, when he was happily enjoying a free and luxurious life in England. OK, so it wasn't his own country, but how hard could it have been? Imagine if you had enough money to have all your favourite home products imported over to Thailand whenever you desired. Imagine being able to bring to Thailand with you a team of cooks and chefs from your homeland, that would rustle up any dish you desired at a moments notice. Imagine having a chaffeur driven Bentley parked on your doorstep, ready for any trip you wished to take. I doubt there's anyone on this forum who enjoys that sort of lifestyle in Thailand (they probably have better things to do than read Thaivisa - no offence George ), and yet most of us here love the lives we have.

All Thaksin had to do was to keep his head down and bide his time. Things in Thailand change quickly, and the next five to ten years will be no different. Indeed, the next five or ten years will see some change more drastic than normal - i'm sure i don't need to spell it out.

But keeping his head down just isn't in Thaksin's make-up. He's tasted the power of leading a country and it gives him a kick that nothing else can.

Power junkies, just like other types of junkies, are always looking for their next fix, and they certainly can't be trusted to stand by their word. They also can't be trusted to rehabilitate themselves.

Ulysses, you give Thaksin the credit of being a rational human being, something we know him not to be.

[Jingthing]

Enough already with the anti-Thaksin diatribes, Jingthing.

What diatribe? There is no diatribe. I think many people are not even aware of the FACT that Thaksin has made this bold threat, that he intends to overthrow the government before Songkran. I think that is rather outrageous. If that's a diatribe, you haven't seen a real one.

Edited April 2, 2009 by Jingthing

[Junglejumbo]

Most posters have already forgotten the point of this thread.

Clearly, Thaksin has some tricks up his sleeve. We may assume that he's already prearranged "something" coming close to the Songkran date. It's too much of a risk otherwise, as most of his supporters will definitely want to celebrate the festival, which will cause the demonstration to lose momentum. They also don't have a big camp to stay unlike the PAD who built themselves into Mekkawan and govt. house.

It's quite baffling to me given the short space of time the man has given himself. Thaksin isn't known to be a high risk taker. Most of his businesses were governement concession related and helped on by established connections such as the police in his original computer business, or his wife and CAT officials in his securing of his first telecom concession. He was also said to be interested in buying EGAT with money from Shin Corp had he stayed as PM. Again, a relatively riskless move.

The obvious conspiracy is that he's paid off some military units to stage a coup on his behalf, but this would prove very tricky. Supporting this argument is that he's said to be willing to share his frozen assets with whoever helps him, possible as much as 30% of it. That would make about Bt24bn. A lot for soldiers. However, this rumor has been in the Thai press already and the military don't seem at all worried by it. There's no reshuffling of personnel. Militaries are very hierachial. They wouldn't follow someone who didn't relate to them hierachial wise. Gen. Anupong and others haven't show any sign of concern. No going to safe houses, etc. Surely, if the military were going to split it would've happened around the time of the airport seizures when there really was a good enough reason to do so??

At the end of the day, I suspect the chance of the military breaking is little, given allegiance the HM the King.

All other initiatives simply wouldn't work before Songkran. He could of course take the protestors to the airport or block traffic at key points (something the reds said recently was better than going to airport) and prompt a violent crack-down and cause major disruption given that its the holiday season (how to take advantage of Songkran!!!). But any coup that followed would unlikely support Thaksin. However, a coup could set off a further chain of events, forcing a counter-coup some time later or military personnel that would speak out against it....cause bigger problems, etc. But this would all be occurring after Songkran.

A deal would also prove very tricky. There's no way that Thaksin could trust the authorities. There's no way that the Thai judicial system or government could justify unfreezing his assets to the general people, and Thaksin couldn't take the risk of calling off the protests from a deal, otherwise the people would never trust him again. It also wouldn't be enough to unfreeze then deposit off shore as these days money can be frozen all over the world.

Edited April 2, 2009 by Junglejumbo

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Not to mention that he SHOULD be allowed in politics.

Convicted criminals SHOULDN"T be allowed in politics, much less run a country, which seems to be what you are in favour of.

Only if it was a free and unbiased trial, which quite clearly isn't the case. Please. Do you actually believe those things you write?

[p_brownstone]

The obvious conspiracy is that he's paid off some military units to stage a coup on his behalf, but this would prove very tricky. Supporting this argument is that he's said to be willing to share his frozen assets with whoever helps him, possible as much as 30% of it. That would make about Bt24bn. A lot for soldiers. However, this rumor has been in the Thai press already and the military don't seem at all worried by it.

Thaksins’ supposed offer to share part of his frozen assets with anyone who can help him retrieve the remainder is a dead end and he knows it – and is yet another reason for his increasing desperation.

There are, perhaps, 5 individuals who could mandate the return of these assets, and none of them require Thaksins’ permission or co-operation to release and / or dissipate them. I am quite sure that over the last year or so a lot of the 70 Billion Baht has quietly seeped away into pockets which – even if he returned as Prime Minister – he would never have the ability to protest or scheme against.

The assets are not Thaksins’ to use as a bargaining chip; any potential defector to his side - from the Army or other echelons – can be bought off by the actual receipt of part of them now, not a vague promise of a reward at some point in the future on the off-chance all goes Thaksins’ way and he returns to some semblance of power or influence.

Patrick

[rixalex]

Not to mention that he SHOULD be allowed in politics.

Convicted criminals SHOULDN"T be allowed in politics, much less run a country, which seems to be what you are in favour of.

Only if it was a free and unbiased trial, which quite clearly isn't the case.

What's your proof? Is it because the courts didn't accept the lunch-box bribe?

Do you actually believe those things you write?

Right back at ya.

[BangkokRay]

Enough already with the anti-Thaksin diatribes, Jingthing.

What diatribe? There is no diatribe. I think many people are not even aware of the FACT that Thaksin has made this bold threat, that he intends to overthrow the government before Songkran. I think that is rather outrageous. If that's a diatribe, you haven't seen a real one.

[bobbin]

Enough already with the anti-Thaksin diatribes, Jingthing.

What diatribe? There is no diatribe. I think many people are not even aware of the FACT that Thaksin has made this bold threat, that he intends to overthrow the government before Songkran. I think that is rather outrageous. If that's a diatribe, you haven't seen a real one.

Alright, you've got me there JT. I tried to slip a little hyperbole by you. But I would have thought, as a fan of hyperbole yourself, that you would have cut me a little slack on that.

[BigSnake]

Maybe but I doubt it, from the turn out for the Red shirt in my area things/people seem to be burn out and not as pumped up as before, more low key, low attendants at the rallies I obsever, on sunday evening only one street was block off, where as back in Oct five to six streets were block, with traffice reroute causing some major JAMs and headaches for traffic police.

[Pierrot]

I agree, on the surface it does not appear he has the key support he needs to pull that off, namely the military. But maybe he knows something we don't, maybe he has a faction of the military under his control, in which case, we are looking at the beginning of a real civil war. He is clearly very desperate now and acting out in a very radical way. What is he thinking? What is his real endgame?

Definitively the military is not as unified as some may think.

And it’s also obvious that the police has been humiliated by the PAD and they’re clearly looking for revenge

[Junglejumbo]

I just read the latest. So basically, they're hoping to achieve the end by large numbers. Back to the 25,000 people per Phua Thai/banned Thai Rak Thai MP all coming to Bangkok. That would actually make for a few million. Well, OK perhaps they'll only make 5,000 people each. Achievable in the bigger constituencies certainly. They need to over run Bangkok which would take over a million in order to get any benefit from it.

No doubt if there's such huge numbers, some of them will make it to the airport or block major intersections at the start of the holiday period which will be Friday. The chances for some outbreaks of violence would be high, and with the holiday season approaching some of them would probably be drinking.