Swine Flu's Economic Impact

[churchill]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133813-swi...economic-impact

"Economic and Asset Allocation Implications

In recent years, there have been a large number of estimates of the amount of economic damage that could result from a serious global influenza pandemic (see, for example, “Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and its Modern Day Implications” by Thomas Garrett, or “A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues” by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office).

All of them agree that the impact on a normally functioning global economy could be quite serious – e.g., a reduction in global GDP of more than 2.5%. However, that is already happening, even in the absence of an influenza pandemic. The real question is whether a pandemic would make things much worse. Our guess is that while it would worsen the situation somewhat in the short term, it might actually help it in medium term. This view rests on the key assumption that a flu pandemic might move the world back towards our cooperative scenario, and off the track towards increased conflict that we seem to be on today.

In terms of asset class valuations, our previous analysis was that the primary impact of an influenza pandemic would be a sharp rise in uncertainty, and an associated increase in demand for appropriate hedges, such as short term government securities and gold. Differential demand for different currencies could be driven by perceptions that one or more areas were coping significantly better or worse with the flu outbreak.

The reduced economic output associated with a flu pandemic would obviously be bad for equities, as well as commodities, assuming that the fall in demand for them would be much greater than any offsetting fall in supply. The impact on commercial property would depend on the severity of the influenza outbreak, with the more severe scenarios associated with lower valuations for commercial property, due to reduced demand.

However, as noted with respect to the economic impact of pandemic flu, these negative asset allocation effects have already occurred due to the financial panic of 2008. So rather than a substantial effect, at this point we estimate that the most likely result of the Mexican swine flu (assuming it doesn’t become much worse) is a damping of the (quite possibly premature) rally in global equity markets, and some further upward pressure on gold and short-term government security prices."

[trogers]

I am setting up a backyard Kimchi factory. May have to expand 30x if the swine flu hits Thailand.

[mommysboy]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133813-swi...economic-impact

"Economic and Asset Allocation Implications

In recent years, there have been a large number of estimates of the amount of economic damage that could result from a serious global influenza pandemic (see, for example, "Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and its Modern Day Implications" by Thomas Garrett, or "A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues" by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office).

All of them agree that the impact on a normally functioning global economy could be quite serious – e.g., a reduction in global GDP of more than 2.5%. However, that is already happening, even in the absence of an influenza pandemic. The real question is whether a pandemic would make things much worse. Our guess is that while it would worsen the situation somewhat in the short term, it might actually help it in medium term. This view rests on the key assumption that a flu pandemic might move the world back towards our cooperative scenario, and off the track towards increased conflict that we seem to be on today.

In terms of asset class valuations, our previous analysis was that the primary impact of an influenza pandemic would be a sharp rise in uncertainty, and an associated increase in demand for appropriate hedges, such as short term government securities and gold. Differential demand for different currencies could be driven by perceptions that one or more areas were coping significantly better or worse with the flu outbreak.

The reduced economic output associated with a flu pandemic would obviously be bad for equities, as well as commodities, assuming that the fall in demand for them would be much greater than any offsetting fall in supply. The impact on commercial property would depend on the severity of the influenza outbreak, with the more severe scenarios associated with lower valuations for commercial property, due to reduced demand.

However, as noted with respect to the economic impact of pandemic flu, these negative asset allocation effects have already occurred due to the financial panic of 2008. So rather than a substantial effect, at this point we estimate that the most likely result of the Mexican swine flu (assuming it doesn't become much worse) is a damping of the (quite possibly premature) rally in global equity markets, and some further upward pressure on gold and short-term government security prices."

It could make things a whole lot worse of course if it proves to be deadly, not only are authorities more prepared to close business' down in favour of public safety, but individuals are less inclined to put themselves at risk.

But my guess is that this seems to have mutated in to run of the mill flu, not nice of course but 'normal'.

[churchill]

""Writing this week of the “striking” similarities between the 2003 Sars outbreak and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England and author of the scenario sketched at the top of this article, notes that a modest “triggering event” is augmented by a media frenzy that transcends borders. Similarities between crises in public health and finance are “no coincidence” as both are “manifestations of the behaviour under stress of a complex adaptive network”.

So far, while struggling with huge media demand, the WHO has provided regular updates, although the data on its website have often appeared modest and belated.

While it is early days, the public response around the world to H1N1 appears calm, despite anecdotal reports of panic-buying of masks and efforts to obtain antiviral drugs. One risk is that such patterns escalate as the effects of the virus become widespread.

More worrying are the cracks appearing in the fragile mechanisms of solidarity between governments. Just as there was disagreement over fiscal stimuli and measures for international financial regulation following the crisis, so there are divergences about how to respond to a pandemic.

Even before the WHO posted advice this week that restricting travel was pointless, many countries were imposing a range of variants that did precisely that. Some countries, such as Egypt, have diverged even further from the science, with calls to slaughter pigs despite no evidence that they present a risk of spreading the infection.

As the pandemic advances, there will be far greater potential for clashes over different national policies towards vaccine manufacture, drug stockpiles and distribution, the provision of medical treatment and so on.

For now, the response has gone largely to plan, and appeared smoother than the response to the financial crisis. But it is only just beginning. As Angus Nicoll from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control puts it: “With flu, you have to plan for the worst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.” The best laid and most rational plans for the pandemic are – as in finance – still grounded in a good deal of faith."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b69b21c8-35b8-11...html?ftcamp=rss

[flying]

http://revolutionradio.org/2009/04/27/40-t...ess-than-4-yrs/

http://www.legitgov.org/flu_oddities_shortnews.html

Makes you wonder a bit though...........

[hhgz]

"Makes you wonder a bit though..........."

Reading your posts makes us all dumber. I liked Churchill's post that indicates a relationship between the SARS outbreak in China, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Truly magnificent analyses. gentlemen.

I'm sure you two can develop a relationship between the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic that killed several tens of millions of people, and the 1929 crash of Wall Street.

[flying]

Truly magnificent analyses. gentlemen.

Thanks !

You add so much to the forum ....welcome

We cant tell you how grateful we are since you have arrived just this past Jan & have almost 300 posts already.

You speak a lot but say pretty much nothing at all.

You never did get back to your other post with a review about the book you trash talked either...Oh thats right you never read it did you?

ploink

Edited May 1, 2009 by flying

[churchill]

Companies planning for Flu Pandemic ( Basically work from home if possible )

Research firm Gartner has been advising its clients to prepare as quickly as they can for the worst case scenario. For companies like Sprint that already have plans in place, the firm is advising clients to call their vendors to make sure that they are also prepared to do business during the outbreak and to test any remote communications contingency plans already in place. For those without a formal plan, Ken McGee, a vice president and research fellow at Gartner, suggests they get one as soon as possible.

"As the World Health Organization moves from a phase 4 alert to a phase 5 alert, which goes beyond the level achieved by both the Avian and SARS outbreaks, the likelihood of a major pandemic is almost certain, " he said. "And it's very important for companies to have a pandemic contingency plan in place. That said, this is a time not for panic, but for straight talk and preparation."

"Contingency plans

Sprint Nextel is not the only large company to have developed a flu pandemic contingency plan. Several large technology companies, including Microsoft, General Electric, IBM, and Dell already have plans in place.

At least initially many companies are focusing on keeping employees healthy by restricting travel and encouraging workers in affected areas to work from home. But as the threat level rises, so will their reactions to situation. For example, Sprint is now considering whether to sanitize call centers and offices in regions where the virus has been identified or whether it should eliminate face-to-face meetings with employees who are living in regions where the swine flu has already shown up."

"Nick Jones, another Gartner analyst, recommends in a blog he posted earlier this week that companies consider using wireless broadband in addition to cable or DSL service to enable remote working from a range of locations. He said that a remote office can be set up using wireless 3G technology. Some adapters come with built-in Wi-Fi, which provides another potential connection mode, if the person is near a Wi-Fi hotspot. Jones also suggests that companies set up these smaller home-based networks across several geographic areas and networks in case one access network becomes overloaded. And for people outside wireless broadband coverage there's always satellite, he said.

Companies should also look for ways to use mobile devices, such as sending a copy of the disaster or contingency plan to employee phones and maybe using video phone calls as a substitute for in-person meetings, he said.

And finally, he suggests that companies have everyone's mobile number handy to contact them in the case of an emergency."

http://www.zdnetasia.com/news/business/0,3...m?scid=rss_z_nw

[churchill]

http://revolutionradio.org/2009/04/27/40-t...ess-than-4-yrs/

http://www.legitgov.org/flu_oddities_shortnews.html

Makes you wonder a bit though...........

and more conspiracy ?

SWINE FLU HOGWASH

Dr. Ron Paul Says ‘Flu Hype’ Designed To Scare Americans

http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/swin...ogwash_176.html

[InterestedObserver]

No one wants the world to experience a flu pandemic. However, lets get realistic, during a normal flu season the US sees 200,000 people hospitalized and 36,000 deaths. This Swine Flu thingy is nowhere near that level, what's all the hype about. So far it's being blown all out of proportion.

Edited May 2, 2009 by InterestedObserver

[flying]

No one wants the world to experience a flu pandemic. However, lets get realistic, during a normal flu season the US sees 200,000 people hospitalized and 36,000 deaths. This Swine Flu thingy is nowhere near that level, what's all the hype about. So far it's being blown all out of proportion.

Ding Ding !!!! Exactly !!!!!!!!!!!!!

You know none in the pork industry has even contracted the disease.

This is a big BS/ Terrorism type hype.

Everytime the US gets in a financial bind they need a diversion.

What you said is true on an average year 20-40,000 die per year from the flu.

[churchill]

Markets Shake Off Flu Bug

Tenacious Rally Inspires Hope That Worst May Be Behind Us

By Tomoeh Murakami Tse

Washington Post Staff Writer

Sunday, May 3, 2009

NEW YORK -- Health jitters over the swine flu deepened last week as the virus spread rapidly across the globe. But after a brief, flu-inspired stumble, the nascent stock market rally has survived, prompting some analysts to tout its resilience despite fears of a pandemic, lingering worries about the banking industry and implications of a Chrysler bankruptcy.

On Monday, worries of a possible pandemic rattled markets. Airline stocks plunged. So did pork futures. Oil and the Mexican peso took a hit.

But by the end of the week, the peso had recovered slightly and oil prices had climbed to five-week highs. Many of the hammered U.S. stocks -- Starwood Hotels and cruise operator Carnival, for example -- had recovered at least some of their losses. At the same time, big pharmaceutical companies and small biotech firms gave back some of their gains.

Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist for Edward Jones, said investors may have reacted more negatively to news of the swine flu had it struck several months earlier, when fears of a deep recession were already driving investors to unload stocks. But the fact that investors didn't flee, he said, underscored their growing confidence that the worst is past.

"It's another element of uncertainty we didn't need," Skrainka said. "But it's not something that is going to derail the progress we've made."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...ss=rss_business

[Jingthing]

However, lets get realistic, during a normal flu season the US sees 200,000 people hospitalized and 36,000 deaths.

So what?

This is about a NEW BUG which has killer pandemic POTENTIAL. The kind of bug that kills healthy young people as opposed to standard flu cycles. Will this mutate that way? We all hope not but human efforts can and are being made to minimize the damage if that occurs.

[whitethai]

I read the US Government are up to their tricks again after 9/11 and that they want to wipe out half the world population as too many people on the planet and they also lost control of THE PEOPLE

[Jingthing]

I read the US Government are up to their tricks again after 9/11 and that they want to wipe out half the world population as too many people on the planet and they also lost control of THE PEOPLE

Where did you read that one? Al Queda's Happy Time News?

[kyb789]

However, lets get realistic, during a normal flu season the US sees 200,000 people hospitalized and 36,000 deaths.

So what?

This is about a NEW BUG which has killer pandemic POTENTIAL. The kind of bug that kills healthy young people as opposed to standard flu cycles. Will this mutate that way? We all hope not but human efforts can and are being made to minimize the damage if that occurs.

Malaria kills 1 million people per year. Consistently. Oh, and yesterday I went outside with a short-sleeved shirt. Economic impact....

[Jingthing]

Malaria kills 1 million people per year.

That is bad. But its not 20 to 40 million and that is why international health officials are tracking this.

[flying]

Malaria kills 1 million people per year.

That is bad. But its not 20 to 40 million and that is why international health officials are tracking this.

Ever google Fema plastic ? Maybe they are worried about that possibility too.

I would like to see an odds maker comment on what the chances are of 40 folks in the same line of work all dying in a 4 year span....most by questionable means.

http://www.rense.com/general62/microvv.htm

http://revolutionradio.org/2009/04/27/40-t...ess-than-4-yrs/

[Jamie]

No one wants the world to experience a flu pandemic. However, lets get realistic, during a normal flu season the US sees 200,000 people hospitalized and 36,000 deaths. This Swine Flu thingy is nowhere near that level, what's all the hype about. So far it's being blown all out of proportion.

Wrong. As stated above, this is a new virus never seen before. We have no clue when or if this virus will mutate to something worse. The flu that killed tens of millions back in 1918 and 1919 was relatively mild when first noticed in 1917 but then came back with a vengeance. Most likely from a mutation.

The interesting thing about the flu pandemic of 1918-1919 was that the virus killed many healthy adults while sparing a greater proportion of the young and old. It seems this mutation caused a reaction in the infected individual that turned their immune system on to attack the body instead of the virus. Since most healthy adults had strong immune systems, the results were worse than in children and older individuals who had weaker immune systems.

[InterestedObserver]

Deleted, changed my mind, inappropriate.

Edited May 3, 2009 by InterestedObserver