Thai Economy’s ‘seen The Worst’ As Spending Kicks In

[jackdanielsesq]

Sounds encouraging - wonder what everyone on the ground thinks - where it really matters.??

BR>Jack

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s economy is over the worst of its first recession in a decade and government spending on “shovel-ready” projects will help spur demand and create jobs, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said.

“We’re not out of the woods,” Korn said in an interview in Bangkok today. “But I’m confident we’ve seen the worst. The government is functioning, we’re ready to implement the second stimulus package, everything is moving progressively in the right direction.”

Thailand’s government began pumping cash into the economy with handouts to the nation’s poorest in April after the global recession led to a collapse in exports, and violent political protests sapped domestic confidence. While the economy isn’t likely to return to growth until the fourth quarter, the central bank has said there are signs the worst is over.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

[Oberkommando]

I think Korn Chatikavanij doesn't have a clue.

Wait until August when the Q2 figures are released.

[ilovefashionTV]

I saw him on Bloomberg before he didnt seem to believe himself in what he was saying.

But if Obamas got green shoots then Thailand should have some.

[Abrak]

I think Korn Chatikavanij doesn't have a clue.

Wait until August when the Q2 figures are released.

One thing I dont believe is that Korn doesnt have a clue. He is a very bright guy by any standards. One thing I fear is as 'ilovefashiontv' (dont we all by the way) says is that he doesnt believe the words he is saying.

And I will bet Oberkommando that Q2 figures will be better - it is simply numerical data. On the current path assuming things dont get worse 4q should be -3.5% a huge improvement on q1 without any real improvement at all. So to take a view that q4 (q2 is a little to close to make an accurate prediction) will be worse than q1 would take some extreme assumptions so he is right in saying recovery is on its way,

[mommysboy]

I think Korn Chatikavanij doesn't have a clue.

Wait until August when the Q2 figures are released.

One thing I dont believe is that Korn doesnt have a clue. He is a very bright guy by any standards. One thing I fear is as 'ilovefashiontv' (dont we all by the way) says is that he doesnt believe the words he is saying.

And I will bet Oberkommando that Q2 figures will be better - it is simply numerical data. On the current path assuming things dont get worse 4q should be -3.5% a huge improvement on q1 without any real improvement at all. So to take a view that q4 (q2 is a little to close to make an accurate prediction) will be worse than q1 would take some extreme assumptions so he is right in saying recovery is on its way,

Doesn't sound feasible. More likely Thailand is now beginning the worst phase which will last 4 - 6 months, and Korny is just using the kind of language we've heard in the west where there are at least some grounds to use it.

[jackdanielsesq]

Correct, numbers per se, dont mean squat, but the trend is relevant. Q1 contracted 6.4%, so anything 'up' is good.

It is very unfortunate that the Thai tourist industry shot itself in the foot recently, as it is critical as a large number employer.

Same with the automobile industry. They will both take a long time to recover.

Once they get real food inflation under control things will improve. Simple price inflation is not sufficient.

Thays simply what 10 years of exuberant excesses & price inflation has done to capitalism. Add a splash of Newport Beach & Wall St.

BR>Jack

[Ricardo]

I bought a second Chang today, which fact I would now present, as conclusive proof that the Thai-economy is past the worst. :D

[wackysleet]

Doesn't sound feasible. More likely Thailand is now beginning the worst phase which will last 4 - 6 months, and Korny is just using the kind of language we've heard in the west where there are at least some grounds to use it.

Just because the government is pumping money into the country doesn't mean the economy is improving, they need to earn from exports and until the world or in Thailands case the USA starts to import again all they are doing is moving the same money around.

[ilovefashionTV]

Just because the government is pumping money into the country doesn't mean the economy is improving, they need to earn from exports and until the world or in Thailands case the USA starts to import again all they are doing is moving the same money around.

And here lies the long term problem for Thailand, as America and the UK who are Thailands major trading partners need to start manufacturing for themselves to create jobs and bring down their trade deficits .... hence at some point theyre going to be taking the jobs that have been exported over the last 15 years back home .... if not then i cant see how the US and UK would get out of their current prediciments as all the personal borrowing that has been done to buy cheap Asian manufactured goods and govt. debt has to be paid back at some point in time .... And it isnt going to be paid back if people are sat on their ass claiming social security money!

It would seem to me that manufacturing their own products is the only way for the UK/US to create jobs.

Edited June 5, 2009 by ilovefashionTV

[Abrak]

Thailand's manufacturing production should improve as the inventory cycle turns (by historic standards this should already have happened but this down turn has proven worse than anyone forecast.) It will happen soon, however, and there are already signs. Toyota has just restarted production at its Rayong plant after a 4 month shut down.

[SoiGirlHunter]

The Global Depression is just starting

[wackysleet]

Thailand's manufacturing production should improve as the inventory cycle turns (by historic standards this should already have happened but this down turn has proven worse than anyone forecast.) It will happen soon, however, and there are already signs. Toyota has just restarted production at its Rayong plant after a 4 month shut down.

Honda also restarted production in the UK a week or so ago after a similar shut down but if you look at their required units for the next year as opposed to last year you will see a substantial drop in production, Toyota may just be filling the gap here in Thailand, Thailand still needs to export.

[Jungian]

Depending who is in what office on what day before being ousted by the next guy in line.... it is hard to say what will get done if anything but I think they need to sit on the cash a little longer.

[arnoldjr]

The tourism sector should be coming back soon with the way the country has extended its "hospitality" to foreigners.

[wackysleet]

The tourism sector should be coming back soon with the way the country has extended its "hospitality" to foreigners.

I love a good laugh, thankyou arnoldjr .

[bravingbangkok]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[teacup]

about the article...."the worst is over"

And return to what?……a profitless prosperity?

It’s nothing but…just a wishy-washiness irrational exuberance from the BOT to me.

[Abrak]

Thailand's manufacturing production should improve as the inventory cycle turns (by historic standards this should already have happened but this down turn has proven worse than anyone forecast.) It will happen soon, however, and there are already signs. Toyota has just restarted production at its Rayong plant after a 4 month shut down.

Honda also restarted production in the UK a week or so ago after a similar shut down but if you look at their required units for the next year as opposed to last year you will see a substantial drop in production, Toyota may just be filling the gap here in Thailand, Thailand still needs to export.

Absolutely, the restart in production is unlikely to reflect an increase in demand because there is no sign of one. It is simply that destocking of inventories are near completion. Once this happens you get a blip up in production even though underlying demand remains at the same depressed levels. You can see this even in the great depression numbers. People tend to get quite excited when this inevitable event happens but unless it is accompanied by a pick up in demand it will only prove to be a false dawn.

[lioness]

Just because the government is pumping money into the country doesn't mean the economy is improving, they need to earn from exports and until the world or in Thailands case the USA starts to import again all they are doing is moving the same money around.

And here lies the long term problem for Thailand, as America and the UK who are Thailands major trading partners need to start manufacturing for themselves to create jobs and bring down their trade deficits .... hence at some point theyre going to be taking the jobs that have been exported over the last 15 years back home .... if not then i cant see how the US and UK would get out of their current prediciments as all the personal borrowing that has been done to buy cheap Asian manufactured goods and govt. debt has to be paid back at some point in time .... And it isnt going to be paid back if people are sat on their ass claiming social security money!

It would seem to me that manufacturing their own products is the only way for the UK/US to create jobs.

Thats fine, but tell me who would buy those items? with the labour costs included they would be so much more expensive, when I say labour costs it's not just the wages it's all the other add on's as well, workers Insurance, Tax etc. This is why products made overseas are so attractive.

[waza]

I get the feeling that we are in the eye of the hurricane, typhoon. The world including Thailand havent hit bottom yet.

[JR Texas]

I get the feeling that we are in the eye of the hurricane, typhoon. The world including Thailand have not hit bottom yet.

Govt. officials always do the same thing when economies turn bad.......paint a pretty picture for the masses to convince them down is up, etc. By doing that they hope to stimulate spending and increase consumer confidence.

It is a well-known method......they are just manipulating the flow of information, hoping for a positive response.

Unfortunately, I am convinced that we have not seen the bottom yet.......it is going to get worse. Now it is clear the real estate market is crashing (oh no.......that comment will bring out the spin monkeys).

It is clear the tourism sector is in serious trouble.......and that will spill over to the airline sector.

Unfortunately, the government, with its anti-foreigner tourism and business investment policies, seems intent on harming both the tourism and real estate sectors.

This does not bode well for areas of Thailand that are heavily dependent on foreign money like Pattaya-Jomtien.

After the recovery--and certainly it will happen eventually via the use of smoke and mirrors--the cycle will be repeated again unless the govt. makes fundamental changes to its approach to foreigners and foreign investment.

Xenophobia in Thailand also needs to be stopped before it increases to a point where it becomes obvious to those who do not study social trends for a living (i.e., the masses).

I see dark days ahead....maybe people will eventually move away from greed and start embracing knowledge, compassion, responsibility.....anything can happen.