Thailand Exports In Record Slump

[bungy007]

All work and no play makes Somchai a dull boy!

Well nobody could ever claim that he was the sharpest knife in the draw

[meelousee]

This bad moon has been arisin for some time now.

There will be more protectionism and price increases across the board.

Loss of exports cut back in imports and artificaly strong baht is a disaster waiting to happen.

Looks like we are in for nasty weather.

Loss of jobs and increase in petty crime, extortion, suicide and domestic violence are some effects of a sour economy.

I see more trouble on the way. And looks like more to come.

We are already hearing the hear the voice of rage & ruin with the yellow shirt & red shirt thingy

Prices of fuel and cooking gas may well drive the Thai economy further into the abyss.

Bad moon arisin.....

Edited June 20, 2009 by meelousee

[ray08]

US and Chinese campaigns for their citizens to buy only local products have also made it more difficult to boost Thai exports, he explained.

Begining to look eerily similar to the protectionism that occured during the Great Depression

I Think thailand itself is a leader in Protectionist policies ,look at the crazy duty ,on imported goods ,eg ,Cars ,wines ,jewellery , etc etc

and protected industries like mobile phone carriers ,even citizenship is very protected compared to nations like the UK, Australia , USA ,

so ranting on about other countries policies carries little weight IMO

[jumnien]

The current economic conditions create a pleasant situation for expat life in Thailand. We haven't seen times this good since 1998. The boom years of Thaksin's administration, while positive on the whole, created a hysteria in the property market and the many problems that come with that. Let's all enjoy these times as these perfect conditions cannot be expected to come but once a decade.

[LaoPo]

The current economic conditions create a pleasant situation for expat life in Thailand. We haven't seen times this good since 1998.

The boom years of Thaksin's administration, while positive on the whole, created a hysteria in the property market and the many problems that come with that. Let's all enjoy these times as these perfect conditions cannot be expected to come but once a decade.

I'm sure there are a few more amongst TV members who wonder what you're talking about.

LaoPo

[jumnien]

At present there is not a frantic property development market, the massive problems associated with rampant construction have eased, tourist arrivals and their concurrent negatives have eased, etc.

[chiang mai]

The current economic conditions create a pleasant situation for expat life in Thailand. We haven't seen times this good since 1998. The boom years of Thaksin's administration, while positive on the whole, created a hysteria in the property market and the many problems that come with that. Let's all enjoy these times as these perfect conditions cannot be expected to come but once a decade.

Care to expand on all of that?

[jumnien]

I've witnessed a pleasant calm amongst the general expat population in the present economic conditions as opposed to a few years ago when many expats were caught up in a spiral of buying bigger properties, upgrading lifestyles, immersed in construction and investment fiascos. Call it more of a "sufficiency happiness quotient" that has increased as we accept with humility and gratitude a less materialistic endeavor.

[chiang mai]

I've witnessed a pleasant calm amongst the general expat population in the present economic conditions as opposed to a few years ago when many expats were caught up in a spiral of buying bigger properties, upgrading lifestyles, immersed in construction and investment fiascos. Call it more of a "sufficiency happiness quotient" that has increased as we accept with humility and gratitude a less materialistic endeavor.

Thanks for that, all I can say is that if those are the things you have truly witnessed over time, you have perhaps been hanging out with the wrong crowd, most people I know came to Thailand to escape those things!

[ratcatcher]

This bad moon has been arisin for some time now.

There will be more protectionism and price increases across the board.

Loss of exports cut back in imports and artificaly strong baht is a disaster waiting to happen.

Looks like we are in for nasty weather.

Loss of jobs and increase in petty crime, extortion, suicide and domestic violence are some effects of a sour economy.

I see more trouble on the way. And looks like more to come.

We are already hearing the hear the voice of rage & ruin with the yellow shirt & red shirt thingy

Prices of fuel and cooking gas may well drive the Thai economy further into the abyss.

Bad moon arisin.....

You obviously put a lot of credence in government reports.

[MJP]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

No, but they probably were after value for money and a degree of safety. Nowadays it's Slumland at farang prices.

So, you are talking rubbish really!

Have to agree with this. Last time I was in a 'destination' area of the Eastern Seaboard it was 'orrible and 'xspensive.

Koh Samet was just awful.

Hopefully this recession will at least take some of the pressure off the environment and things will improve. Who knows?

MJP, Sounds more like wishful thinking to me.

That it is my old son. Trying to find something to be positive about right now. Apart from the bags of really lovely pig poo compost I got today from our farm.

[Datsun240Z]

I think simply, the world economy has to crash first, and we start from ground up again having new chances, same like after a war.

[jumnien]

I've witnessed a pleasant calm amongst the general expat population in the present economic conditions as opposed to a few years ago when many expats were caught up in a spiral of buying bigger properties, upgrading lifestyles, immersed in construction and investment fiascos. Call it more of a "sufficiency happiness quotient" that has increased as we accept with humility and gratitude a less materialistic endeavor.

Thanks for that, all I can say is that if those are the things you have truly witnessed over time, you have perhaps been hanging out with the wrong crowd, most people I know came to Thailand to escape those things!

Cheers! I was really commenting about the general expat population rather than specifically those I hang out with. I'd say on the whole, my friends are as happy now as they were before. With a strong spiritual discipline in one's daily life comes an uncanny ability to enjoy adapting to the viscitudes of modern life. That said, it is much easier to avoid suffering the pains of materialism now that we are not all drowning in cash. Moderation is the key, sufficiency is the goal. Sustenance is bliss.

[henryalleman]

Thai Exports Tumble Most in 17 Years; Drop May Ease

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana

'Light at the End'

"We are still walking in a tunnel but we have started to see the light at the end," said Kanit Sangsubhan, director of the Finance Ministry's research institute and a Bank of Thailand board member. "Demand from China and the rest of Asia will help our exports."

Maybe the light at the end of the tunnel is the train of reccesion who is going to smack them death.

Only a few month's ago they said that Thailand will not suffer at all from the international economical meltdown.

And we ain't see nothing yet. IMHO the Thai internal consumption is only going on because the banks, supermarkets are literally trowing credit cards to the public. Just open your eyes next time you go shopping, there are waiting lines at bank branches to apply for a loan or credit cards. In ten years time the household debt is doubled. Many people pay there grocery bills with Visa shopping cards from Carrefour, Tesco and others. ten years ago this was an almost unknown phenomena Sooner or later all that money has to pay back, and we all know what happened in the States and the UK.

[jayboy]

I've witnessed a pleasant calm amongst the general expat population in the present economic conditions as opposed to a few years ago when many expats were caught up in a spiral of buying bigger properties, upgrading lifestyles, immersed in construction and investment fiascos. Call it more of a "sufficiency happiness quotient" that has increased as we accept with humility and gratitude a less materialistic endeavor.

I wonder how you define the general expat poulation and equally wonder how how you have a direct line into its thinking.

My own spin is that there will always be a number in deteriorating economic conditions who rationalise their fate by seeking comfort in a "sufficiency happiness quotient" or some such rubbish.Alright if you are a Bhutanese peasant I suppose.

For the rest of us it means buckling down, working hard and digging ourselves out of a hole.

[imaneggspurt]

I've witnessed a pleasant calm amongst the general expat population in the present economic conditions as opposed to a few years ago when many expats were caught up in a spiral of buying bigger properties, upgrading lifestyles, immersed in construction and investment fiascos. Call it more of a "sufficiency happiness quotient" that has increased as we accept with humility and gratitude a less materialistic endeavor.

Fantasically put, are you an estate agent?. when in fact im sure you mean they are scared to death to spend right now for many reasons,.

[PatinBKk]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

No, but they probably were after value for money and a degree of safety. Nowadays it's Slumland at farang prices.

So, you are talking rubbish really!

Have to agree with this. Last time I was in a 'destination' area of the Eastern Seaboard it was 'orrible and 'xspensive.

Koh Samet was just awful.

Mr Parry I presume

Hopefully this recession will at least take some of the pressure off the environment and things will improve. Who knows?

[glegolo]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

This was a very simpel way of looking at it. There are NO certain way to tell that imports are used

to make the export. What is that???

Import is what people spend their money on, and export is what people make their money... soo choose, what is best???

Jumnien are so true...

Glegolo

[MJP]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

No, but they probably were after value for money and a degree of safety. Nowadays it's Slumland at farang prices.

So, you are talking rubbish really!

Have to agree with this. Last time I was in a 'destination' area of the Eastern Seaboard it was 'orrible and 'xspensive.

Koh Samet was just awful.

Hopefully this recession will at least take some of the pressure off the environment and things will improve. Who knows?

Mr Parry I presume

Who?

[MJP]

I've witnessed a pleasant calm amongst the general expat population in the present economic conditions as opposed to a few years ago when many expats were caught up in a spiral of buying bigger properties, upgrading lifestyles, immersed in construction and investment fiascos. Call it more of a "sufficiency happiness quotient" that has increased as we accept with humility and gratitude a less materialistic endeavor.

Thanks for that, all I can say is that if those are the things you have truly witnessed over time, you have perhaps been hanging out with the wrong crowd, most people I know came to Thailand to escape those things!

Cheers! I was really commenting about the general expat population rather than specifically those I hang out with. I'd say on the whole, my friends are as happy now as they were before. With a strong spiritual discipline in one's daily life comes an uncanny ability to enjoy adapting to the viscitudes of modern life. That said, it is much easier to avoid suffering the pains of materialism now that we are not all drowning in cash. Moderation is the key, sufficiency is the goal. Sustenance is bliss.

Beautiful!

Nice post.

[geriatrickid]

China's gigantic fiscal stimulus spending of US$586 billion will spill over to regional trade. Yea, sort of like when the toilet overflows.

Beijing's policy to promote the increased use of electrical appliances in rural households has already benefited producers such as Thailand and the Philippines directly, Dr Sofat said. How? the intent is for the Chinese to purchase locally. I want some specifics Dr. Sofat.

China will have ample room to increase fiscal stimulus for the next year, given public debt at just 20% of gross domestic product. Uhhuh. What about that gigantic chunk of US debts on its books that is costing the Chinese billions because of the falling $US?

China's domestic consumption is currently too low and has room to grow significantly, she said. Assuming the Chinese have disposable income. With unemployment growing, it aint happening.

"

"The slowdown of the Chinese economy did not totally reflect the US economic recession. Actually, it was partly engineered by the People's Bank of China to stem excessive investment," Dr Sofat said. Really?

So the fact that there was a shrinking market for the exports causing factory llayoffs and a decline in raw material orders was a Bank of china policy? Right/

In Thailand, Dr Sofat said 10% growth of manufacturing in the first quarter would contribute significantly to economic growth in this year. Manufacturing contracted severely late last year. 10% of a smaller number doesn't have the same impact as 10% of a larger number. D-uh. Some of us can do basic math.

US and Chinese campaigns for their citizens to buy only local products have also made it more difficult to boost Thai exports, he explained.

Begining to look eerily similar to the protectionism that occured during the Great Depression

Yes. It won't work though. One need only look at the current hype in the USA to buy "American". It's about to backfire on the Americans because the largest trading partner is Canada. Canadian manufacturers are intertwined with the American economy and depend upon US components.Interfering with trade means that US manufacturers and exporters suffer. Add to that that if the US pisses of canada, it may see some retaliatory measures in key US imports like energy or Canadian importers turning to foreign sources for food imports. It would destroy the US economy. Thailand's economy is not as intermeshed with countries like Japan, but additional trade barriers will do more harm than good.

I think simply, the world economy has to crash first, and we start from ground up again having new chances, same like after a war.

You are right. However, we'd have riots in the street in most western countries. After WWII the UK had energy and food rationing. Can you imagine the UK citizens dealing with that now? They'd be burning the cities in protest and chasing visible minority groups blaming them for the problems.

[baht&sold]

Thailand exports in record slump

Thailand's exports slumped by more than a quarter in May - a record fall - as demand for Thai goods overseas continued to drop during the downturn.

Exports fell by 26.6% compared with a year earlier, to $11.7bn (£7.1bn). Imports dropped by 34.7% to $9.3bn.

"Exports to key markets were all lower due to weak demand and intensifying competition," the government said.

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

The Asian economy has been hit hard by the global economic downturn but also by political unrest at the end of 2008.

-- BBC June 19 - 2009

LaoPo

Just like to take this opportunity to wish Jonathan Head of the BBC chok dee on his new posting to Turkey

[baht&sold]

Siripol: Other countries’ exports also drop

The exports of other countries have also continuously declined, not only Thailand, due to impact of global economic recession, permanent secretary for the Ministry of Commerce Siripol Yodmuangcharoen said on Saturday.

Mr Siripol gave examples that the exports of China dropped 26.3 per cent in May, while that of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan declined by 31.4, 28.5 and 41 per cent respectively.

Previously, the permanent secretary reported that the country’s export value over the first five month of the year stood at 55 billion US dollar, a decrease of 22.9 percent from the same period last year. The export value in May was 11 billion US dollar, about 26.6 per cent lower than May 2008.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/14...ports-also-drop

-- Bangkok Post 20 June 2009

(apparently it IS ok to high-light in news items;)

[Naam]

Hey, no one chose to live in Thailand because of its high GDP! If that's what turned us on, we'd all be in Stockholm, n'est pas?

Too true.

I nearly got a job in Qatar. High per capita GDP but definitely not so sanook

n'est pas? in french n est ce pas

nitpicking provides amusement. i join the party and present the correct version which is "n'est-ce pas"

[catmac]

Not only are the figures bad, but I fear worse is to come......

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8108859.stm

Of course, maybe the incompetents in the present government might know something that all the experts don't know.

[mommysboy]

Not only are the figures bad, but I fear worse is to come......

The Thai economy, which is suffering from its worst recession in decades, is heavily dependent on exports.

And analysts believe the country's exporters, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's entire economic activity, will continue to suffer.

"It is less likely there will be a strong rebound in Thai exports in the near future as demand for imports of raw materials has not picked up yet," said Suara Wilaipich at Standard Chartered Bank.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8108859.stm

Of course, maybe the incompetents in the present government might know something that all the experts don't know.

Certainly continue to suffer, but that's not the same as worse to come.

However, there is a big storm brewing in the medium term, quite simply and ironically, Thailand has priced itself out the game.

Thus while it's strong fiscal standing looks good, the drop in future revenues may be too much of a strain and might result in the need to borrow extremely large sums of money that might not be available without resorting to the IMF again.

It's got huge dollar reserves but to plunder these would push the bt up still further in value.

[Time Traveller]

Imports have fallen to a greater degree than exports, so the Thais are still ahead of the game.

the imports are used to make the goods to export! no imports nothing to make, no work for the thai people....

You're right, there's less trade so less people have jobs. Except, there's now are large® trade surplus so overall the country is increasing it's wealth. (Albeit that it's going into a fewer private hands as well as to the Central bank foreign reserves implying the nation is becoming richer).

[Time Traveller]

The lesson from the last year, is never believe the forecasts of any bank or financial analyst especially when written in print.

The current problems in Thai exports can not be solved through artificially weakening the baht. Now that global demand (people that buys thai exports) has suffered a setback and western people worried about losing jobs, they're not likely to buy a new lcd tv (or whatever that comes from asia) even if the prices after 15% cheaper (through devaluing asian currencies as some people continue to argue). Also Thailand is a net exporter therefore the trade surplus will mean that the currency will naturally strengthen. And rightly so, after all the Asian central banks are at least 50% to blame for the current crisis. By weakening their currencies (that is selling baht/yen/yuan etc.) and buying dollars means that these poor nations end up lending money to the rich - namely the USA - through their purchases of US Treasuries. This is akin to group of poor farmers lending money to a millionaire to buy expensive cars and homes on credit - something's definitely wrong with that.

Ultimately, the western world will see their real incomes fall in order reduce the current imbalances. This means that East Asian nations real incomes should increase and Americans will end up buying less. That's bad news for asian exporters, so Thailand really needs to stimulate domestic demand in the way China is trying to do, and allow any uncompetitive export industries to fade away. After all great companies don't live and die by exchange rates.

Edited June 24, 2009 by Time Traveller

[mommysboy]

The lesson from the last year, is never believe the forecasts of any bank or financial analyst especially when written in print.

The current problems in Thai exports can not be solved through artificially weakening the baht. Now that global demand (people that buys thai exports) has suffered a setback and western people worried about losing jobs, they're not likely to buy a new lcd tv (or whatever that comes from asia) even if the prices after 15% cheaper (through devaluing asian currencies as some people continue to argue). Also Thailand is a net exporter therefore the trade surplus will mean that the currency will naturally strengthen. And rightly so, after all the Asian central banks are at least 50% to blame for the current crisis. By weakening their currencies (that is selling baht/yen/yuan etc.) and buying dollars means that these poor nations end up lending money to the rich - namely the USA - through their purchases of US Treasuries. This is akin to group of poor farmers lending money to a millionaire to buy expensive cars and homes on credit - something's definitely wrong with that.

Ultimately, the western world will see their real incomes fall in order reduce the current imbalances. This means that East Asian nations real incomes should increase and Americans will end up buying less. That's bad news for asian exporters, so Thailand really needs to stimulate domestic demand in the way China is trying to do, and allow any uncompetitive export industries to fade away. After all great companies don't live and die by exchange rates.

You can only stimulate demand through big borrowing and public spending, or cutting taxes. Thailand is already maxed in that direction. Nothing can offset the short fall.

Yes the buck has passed to Thailand to produce a consumer driven economy, and assume it's place among the elite.

I don't know how the world's most affluent begger will cope with that responsibility, but I'd suggest that it will do everything possible to shirk it.

[Time Traveller]

You can only stimulate demand through big borrowing and public spending, or cutting taxes. Thailand is already maxed in that direction. Nothing can offset the short fall.

Yes the buck has passed to Thailand to produce a consumer driven economy, and assume it's place among the elite.

I don't know how the world's most affluent begger will cope with that responsibility, but I'd suggest that it will do everything possible to shirk it.

Well now that imports are crashing, there's no need to have such a high level of foreign reserves. They could use 10% to 20% of the $115+billion in reserves to spend on the stalled mega projects. No need for government to borrow the money . However, it might also be better to wait and plan projects wisely than to follow the crazy example set by the US government - or else most of the money would be lost to corruption and "special interest" groups. Perhaps parking the country's wealth in US treasuries might not be such a bad idea!