G B P Warning For Brits; Possible Sterling Crisis !

[chiang mai]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

Pessimistic I know, but the writing is on the wall.

Whatever that writing says it is clearly not in any language that you can read accurately, take another cold hard look at things and then try decipher the writing again.

[moo9]

The STG is a currency of the past anyway. Recovery by Christmas? What is the UK's economic strength without the financial sector anyway? And exactly this sector is looking for new havens right now. Sorry to say but I am not very optimistic for the strength of the Pound. After all a weak Pound will help many smaller industrial companies in the UK, whereas a strong Pound would only help other countries tourism.

Cheers

[Oberkommando]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

Pessimistic I know, but the writing is on the wall.

Whatever that writing says it is clearly not in any language that you can read accurately, take another cold hard look at things and then try decipher the writing again.

If you are literate it clearly says continuing civil war in the South, political turmoil with no end in sight, deep divisions within Thai society, Thai economy in recession, and that's just the first sentence.

Unfortunately forum rules prevent me from translating the rest, but I'm sure if you are as clever as you'd like to believe you can work it out.

[TAWP]

Oberkommando>>And none of those written or unwritten points cold lead to the demise of the country, only give us a rocky road ahead...

[Oberkommando]

Oberkommando>>And none of those written or unwritten points cold lead to the demise of the country, only give us a rocky road ahead...

They certainly could contribute. Other events we are not allowed to discuss unfortunately.

Hope it never comes to that, but you have to acknowledge it is a possibility. To not do so underlines a naivety and a failure to understand what is actually happening in this country.

[Rinrada]

July 8, 2009

UK recession will end this year, says IMF

Gary Duncan, Economics Editor (thanks)

depends who you believe...however

Britain’s recession will end this year with the economy returning to anaemic growth in 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today as it upgraded its view of prospects for the UK and other leading economies.

In a boost for Alistair Darling’s predictions that Britain’s worst post-war slump will be over by Christmas, the IMF sharply raised its UK forecasts for next year. It now predicts insipid growth of 0.2 per cent, compared with the 0.4 per cent decline it had expected in April and a 4.2 per cent slump projected for this year.

The Chancellor will welcome the fund’s backing for his hopes for an imminent end to the recession.

But the IMF’s growth projection falls a long way short of Mr Darling’s bet on a much stronger expansion of between 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent, and is a blow to the Government’s hopes of fighting an election framed around economic recovery.

The IMF expects, however, that Britain will still do better than the eurozone thanks to a continuing slump in Germany.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6667875.ece

[Datsun240Z]

They are dreaming, it's going the worst ever, and they see recovery? WOW, some people must be sitting way to long behind screens here.

[amarka]

yes......

and in thailand all you have to do is go more rural to save a lot of money or reduce your trips to bkk/etc...

and even if thailand was as expensive as the UK - you would still be on a winner..... imho

dont worry about what sterling cant buy you - be happy with what it can still buy you and be happy and enjoy!

according to the doomsday clan the world is comming to an end and thailand will be no more

amarka

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

[LaoPo]

Bloomberg: Britain Currency to Crumble

Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:33 PM

By: Elaine Barr

Harvard professor Niall Ferguson sees the handwriting on the wall with Britain's currency, and he doesn't like what he sees.

"The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three, and the probability of major tax hikes and cuts in public spending is roughly one in one," the British financial historian told Bloomberg Markets.

LaoPo

Good reading but rather oddly patched together , and the headline is misleading, it's not probable at all.

You're correct; the word "Probable" is too strong and should have read: "Possible" (Probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three")

I will ask the Mods if they are able to change the headline.

Mea Culpa.

LaoPo

[Hermano Lobo]

Well According to the IMF, the recession in the UK will be over by Christmas, so that bodes well for Sterling. So I guess it all depends on who you want to believe.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6670277.ece

Hmm, and who owns the IMF then? Where were their predictions when the crash started...nowhere just like their credibility. They were the twits that stuffed up Asia back in the currency crash, in fact that idiot Geitner was involved in that mess as well.

Most of what I'm reading is predicting an even bigger crash this year. So where will the useless stimulus money come from then? Out of thin air with more QE, all that extra money floating around should get the inflation rolling eventually.

The fundamentals just aren't good with rising unemployment, crushing government debt, no local industry, the housing crash etc. I understand the next wave of bankster suss loans will start to come into play next year as the interest rates get all hiked up whch should lead to a bigger property crash, this time with commercial as well.

Would suggest keep away from both dollars and pounds. Brown and Obama have done a magnificent job of bankrupting their countries. The obedient populations just sit back and let them. And of course when Brown sold off the UK gold the twit even sold it cheap.

If you really want to get confident have a look at who owns the Bank of England and the Federal Reserse, institutions neck deep in the current mess. Yjey are not government, they are private institutions. Google who the real operators and power behind the scenes are.

Cheers...

Chunkton-

Well said.

The recession/depression will run at least ten years. The graph will not appear like a vee, a 'U' or an 'L' shape.

It will look rather like sharks teeth.(no pun intended).

Hey, we are getting back to the good times, a recovery has started. Then the stall will begin and things will drop

back again.

What I cannot understand, is how the baht remains strong.

Anybody know why ?

[brahmburgers]

There may not even be a Thailand in seven to ten years time.

what will there be then, a coastline going from Kanchanaburi to Pitsanaluk to Udan?

If so, I should start building a catamaraft (a raft with a stabilizer), and get ready to paddle.

[cyborg22]

dont worry!!!!!!! the thai baht is going nowhere but down the drain too, with the state of tourism and the greedy thais putting prices up and not down! so all will level out. the british pound has got a lot better chance of recovering than the thai baht will have in the future for sure!!!!

At the moment the Thai baht does not need to recover, It is faring better than most against farang currencies.

It is other currencies that are weakening, The Baht has in reality held steady.

At the moment 1.00 British pounds sterling = 54.72 Thai baht not so long ago it was bht49.00.

So maybe the gbp is improving a little.

[cyborg22]

yes......

and in thailand all you have to do is go more rural to save a lot of money or reduce your trips to bkk/etc...

and even if thailand was as expensive as the UK - you would still be on a winner..... imho

dont worry about what sterling cant buy you - be happy with what it can still buy you and be happy and enjoy!

according to the doomsday clan the world is comming to an end and thailand will be no more

amarka

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

Waking up in say seven to ten years time, I would be very happy with a suitcase full of Thai Baht.

I hope i do not wake up with thai baht.

I am only waiting for gbp to become more strong, So that i can exchange all the gbp i changed for farang at 51bht=1gbp

[midas]

If I had to go to bed and place a suitcase underneath that bed, filled with the currency of my choice, that would be all I had when I woke up in five years time I would say that sterling would be pretty much high on my list of choices, as would be yen or the dollar. It certainly wouldn't be the Thai baht.

So come on then what would you like to have in your suitcase ?

keep dreaming

[geriatrickid]

Sterling crisis or $ or Yuan - etc all are printing paper which is getting worth less every day the printing presses are running .

Pish posh. The reality today is that the underpinning of a currency is the assets available to support it. Wars are fought over scarce resources; land, water, food and resources (e.g. oil) The country that has these assets and that also has managed to control finances is the country that will hold its own. One country I can think of is Canada. Awash in everything, including a battered but still vibrant educational system, diversified economy and skilled labour. It's the one major world currency that has strengthened during the past six months.

The UK may not necessarily have the resources onsite, but look deeper and one sees it does have access to important resources through holdings in petro resources (in Nigeria, Canada etc.) and to important manufacturing facilities scattered everywhere that do provide the diversified stake. More than ever, Britannia will need to rule the seas if it is to preserve and protect its foreign holdings.

The UK went through far worse after WWII; rationing, bankrupt in all but name and yet the UK persevered and came back strong. It will recover. May take awhile, but the pound will be frolicing in clover again, assuming folks don't panic and force the acceptance of the euro.

I had a good chuckle over the pensions and the doom and gloom forcasts. Word up: defined benefit pension plans with the exception of the government are dead. I lost mine 5 years ago. Initially I was at a 6% matching contribution for a defined benefit (US employer). Then I had a UK employer 3% matching as a defined contribution, where there was no guarantee on my pension proceeeds. Now it's 2% with a defined contribution. Ask around at those employed by the companies still granting pensions and see how benefits have been slashed. yes, there will be a small blip for a generation, but after that, it will clear like bad som tam from the gut.

[Gary A]

Anyone who KNOWS what any currency is going to do will be VERY wealthy. It's simply a wait and see thing. The "experts" didn't do a very good job predicting this mess we are now in.

[cpofc]

actually there were people issuing warnings, it is just that most of the world was too busy making obscene amounts of money to be bothered listen to them.

Anyone with half a brain should have been able to see what was coming.

The only thing that wasn't predicted was the collapse of Fanny May and Freddie Mac. The impossible. The unthinkable. Financial armageddon.

[Spee]

The only thing that wasn't predicted was the collapse of Fanny May and Freddie Mac.

If anyone believes this, they are truly delusional. This is at the core of the current economic problems and has been known as a serious financial problem for more than 12-15 years. This is a classic example of what happens when public and private entities become too close, inbred and corrupt.

Check your history. Do some research on people like Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Reich, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Angelo Mozilo Franklin Raines and Jamie Gorelick. You will find a long stinky trail of greed, corruption, destruction and broke investors. These and other continue to shelter the true impact of Fannie and Freddie, as there are still many rotting corpses yet to be uncovered.

As for predicting it, I know a very well connected British financial advisor. He got all of his clients away from this worthless paper several years ago, and asked me for 2-3 years when the bubble was going to burst. I didn't know about it then, but obviously some people did.

[bungy007]

They are dreaming, it's going the worst ever, and they see recovery? WOW, some people must be sitting way to long behind screens here.

They always do this - try to talk up an economy or downplay the bad news so that a panic isn't created and a run on the currency is avoided. Then when it all collapses around them, they say they misread the economy - just as Joe Biden is saying right now! I wonder if the IMF are actually going to use the 'green shoots' phrase. Naaarr. Even they can't be that optimistic - can they?

[mommysboy]

CM writes 'nice to have you on board'

Hardly, I'm very much on the good ship Sterling, but all I can see is very choppy waters at present, hence I think it will drop to 50 and my very worst case scenario is 45.

The pound is fairly priced against most currencies at present, save the Euro and Bt which are both over priced IMHO.

But there we are, no doubt the pendulum will swing.

I don't think a crumble is possible really, but I certainly don't see any meteoric rises save against currencies that weaken of their own accord, the bt could be one of those but again I don't think so at present.

[bungy007]

Anyone who KNOWS what any currency is going to do will be VERY wealthy. It's simply a wait and see thing. The "experts" didn't do a very good job predicting this mess we are now in.

Could it be that the concept of currency is coming to an end? Gone are the days when a currency was backed up by hard gold in the UK and USA - not sure what keeps currencies viable apart from smoke and mirrors. Perhaps we will see a return to some kind of trade in goods and services as a way of exchange.

[chiang mai]

CM writes 'nice to have you on board'

Hardly, I'm very much on the good ship Sterling, but all I can see is very choppy waters at present, hence I think it will drop to 50 and my very worst case scenario is 45.

The pound is fairly priced against most currencies at present, save the Euro and Bt which are both over priced IMHO.

But there we are, no doubt the pendulum will swing.

I don't think a crumble is possible really, but I certainly don't see any meteoric rises save against currencies that weaken of their own accord, the bt could be one of those but again I don't think so at present.

That was intended of course to be very much tongue in cheek in light of recent chats. But yes I don't disagree, GBP seems fairly priced at present although I'm not sure I agree that THB is over priced. And whilst my money is mostly on the good ship Sterling also, my sentiment, longer term, is on THB, as you know only too well. If I extend out a fairly priced GBP against what I think is possibly also a fairly priced THB, over ten years, GBP/THB at 40 is not only impossible it's probable.

[LaoPo]

Anyone who KNOWS what any currency is going to do will be VERY wealthy. It's simply a wait and see thing. The "experts" didn't do a very good job predicting this mess we are now in.

Could it be that the concept of currency is coming to an end? Gone are the days when a currency was backed up by hard gold in the UK and USA - not sure what keeps currencies viable apart from smoke and mirrors. Perhaps we will see a return to some kind of trade in goods and services as a way of exchange.

Yes.

The day will come that currencies still exist but cash is gone.

In The Netherlands, between 80 and 85% of all shop transactions are paid now with a debit card. Standing in line in a supermarket one hardly see any cash transactions anymore. The same in other EU countries.

Cash is fading away and pure virtual money is left.

If that is good remains to be seen and proved.

LaoPo

[Datsun240Z]

Anyone who KNOWS what any currency is going to do will be VERY wealthy. It's simply a wait and see thing. The "experts" didn't do a very good job predicting this mess we are now in.

Could it be that the concept of currency is coming to an end? Gone are the days when a currency was backed up by hard gold in the UK and USA - not sure what keeps currencies viable apart from smoke and mirrors. Perhaps we will see a return to some kind of trade in goods and services as a way of exchange.

Cash is fading away and pure virtual money is left.

LaoPo

Do you know what that means? If all money eventually becomes digital, it is open to viruses! And then...

[LaoPo]

Anyone who KNOWS what any currency is going to do will be VERY wealthy. It's simply a wait and see thing. The "experts" didn't do a very good job predicting this mess we are now in.

Could it be that the concept of currency is coming to an end? Gone are the days when a currency was backed up by hard gold in the UK and USA - not sure what keeps currencies viable apart from smoke and mirrors. Perhaps we will see a return to some kind of trade in goods and services as a way of exchange.

Cash is fading away and pure virtual money is left.

LaoPo

Do you know what that means? If all money eventually becomes digital, it is open to viruses! And then...

100% of ALL interbank transactions, worldwide, ARE already digital, since many years, since decades in fact.

LaoPo

[brahmburgers]

Anyone who KNOWS what any currency is going to do will be VERY wealthy. It's simply a wait and see thing. The "experts" didn't do a very good job predicting this mess we are now in.

Hate to toot my own horn, but I saw it coming. True story:

Last summer, my mom passed away and me and my 2 brothers each inherited 1/3 of the stuffy old stocks that she had (GE, Lehman Bros, etc) with a broker at Morgan Stanley. At first I thought to open an account there and hold while considering options. MS told me I needed a US address. I could have used a friend's, but I thought, 'screw 'em,' so I cashed out. 100%, including all the crusty old real estate stuff - even though there were steep penalties for early withdrawal. A month later the bottom fell out of Wall Street. My 2 brothers are looking at pennies to the dollar, and my lucky butt cashed out. Whew.... dodged the bullet.

So, the big shots at Goldman Sachs and AIS get millions of dollars in salaries and percs each year (even when their businesses tank), for making wrong decisions, ....and the folks like me, who have zero debt and make smarter decisions, get zero compensation. Nobody asked me, but Wall St. should fire every last one of those making mistakes, and hire completely new leaner, smarter staff. Who would miss the old mess-makers? ....and the Feds should have let let the chips fall re; AIS and its over-reaching greed. Do you know who else, besides AIS, got tens of billions from the Fed bail-out? It was their buddies down the block like; Goldman Sachs, MS, B of A, and a slew of other mistake-prone banks and brokerages.

Makes me want to puke.

And what about insurance companies, brokerages, and banks which make smarter business decisions? They're at a disadvantage, because their larger bloated competitors get tens of billions of Federal money shoveled in to their laps every time they belch. America sings praises of 'free trade' but in reality, it's anything but. Its largest industries are tremendously subsidized by taxpayer and borrowed money. It can't help but come back to bite Uncle Sam on the ass. Stay tuned, there's more garbage to come.

[mommysboy]

Bloomberg: Britain Currency to Crumble

Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:33 PM

By: Elaine Barr

Harvard professor Niall Ferguson sees the handwriting on the wall with Britain's currency, and he doesn't like what he sees.

"The probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three, and the probability of major tax hikes and cuts in public spending is roughly one in one," the British financial historian told Bloomberg Markets.

LaoPo

Good reading but rather oddly patched together , and the headline is misleading, it's not probable at all.

You're correct; the word "Probable" is too strong and should have read: "Possible" (Probability of a real sterling crisis is around one in three")

I will ask the Mods if they are able to change the headline.

Mea Culpa.

LaoPo

Integrity - A+

[LaoPo]

Integrity - A+

I was hoping for a triple A+++ but thank you nevertheless!

LaoPo

[mommysboy]

Integrity - A+

I was hoping for a triple A+++ but thank you nevertheless!

LaoPo

Ah, I see.

yes, AAA+++

I mean it.

[Chaimai]

Integrity - A+

I was hoping for a triple A+++ but thank you nevertheless!

LaoPo

I give A-.

As with all propaganda it is the original (erroneous) comment that has the impact - not the retraction/correction.