The Stock Market

[Naam]

1. Yes IMF has said it will sell for some time now.

2. I always wondered why?

3. Why now?

4.Yes 13B instead of 8B when first announced

5. but still I wondered why not keep the gold?

1. correct

2. to raise cash

3. 403 tons are worth approximately 12bb at todays gold price. when the decision was made the price was much lower.

4. why not now? IMF management might have read VegasVic's forecast of the imminent price drop and should gold explode pricewise what would the IMF do with 12 million bakeries?

5. because gold (as opposed to the theories of goldbugs) is NOT cash. gold canNOT be used to establish credit facilities or be transferred to certain "behaving" states which have liquidity problems.

[flying]

1. Yes IMF has said it will sell for some time now.

2. I always wondered why?

3. Why now?

4.Yes 13B instead of 8B when first announced

5. but still I wondered why not keep the gold?

1. correct

2. to raise cash

3. 403 tons are worth approximately 12bb at todays gold price. when the decision was made the price was much lower.

4. why not now? IMF management might have read VegasVic's forecast of the imminent price drop and should gold explode pricewise what would the IMF do with 12 million bakeries?

5. because gold (as opposed to the theories of goldbugs) is NOT cash. gold canNOT be used to establish credit facilities or be transferred to certain "behaving" states which have liquidity problems.

Yes I agree to some extent. Not wanting to take this original stock market topic too far out. This is probably better in the where is gold heading topic but,

Of course what you say makes sense. I just wondered if they wouldn't be better served waiting till they see more of what direction the $$ is headed. Then again as I posted in another topic......

The IMF is in the dollar camp. Its sole purpose is to ensure that third world countries can pay their dollar-denominated debts in order to keep the dollar alive. If that debt from third world countries could no longer be serviced, it could no longer be held as an asset within the financial system. Therefore, the IMF issues highly leveraged dollar loans to these countries to make sure that payments continue. In exchange, it locks up real world capital as collateral for the loans. This is NOT a system that supports third world economies. It is a system that supports the dollar's reserve function at the EXPENSE of third world economies. If the IMF stopped functioning, so would the dollar. And the US government would lose its external funding.

So to that extent it is understandable what the IMF is doing. Basically another bailout not so much of the countries it claims to help but the $$$

[midas]

[

"zerohedge" writes rubbish! there's nothing surprising. the sale was decided a long time ago but needed approval of 85% of the member states. the mandatory approval is given by parliamentary vote (which, as we all know, takes time). no dark forces, alien influence, global conspiray and the like involved.

well... perhaps the Bilderbergs or the Illuminati might...

Well considering this article appeared on Bloomberg the day before my post

- the Bilderbergs or the Illuminati didnt even enter my mind because I dont think many people would consider

that Bloomberg " writes rubbish "

" Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund’s executive board said it approved gold sales of 403.3 metric tons and pledged to ensure against “disruptions” in the gold market.

The IMF said it would “stand ready to sell gold directly to central banks.” The sales could also be conducted in the open market in a “phased manner” over time, the Washington- based lender said in an e-mailed statement. "

http://www.wealth.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aBBSWZUO70AQ

Edited September 21, 2009 by midas

[Naam]

[

"zerohedge" writes rubbish! there's nothing surprising. the sale was decided a long time ago but needed approval of 85% of the member states. the mandatory approval is given by parliamentary vote (which, as we all know, takes time). no dark forces, alien influence, global conspiray and the like involved.

well... perhaps the Bilderbergs or the Illuminati might...

Well considering this article appeared on Bloomberg the day before my post

- the Bilderbergs or the Illuminati didnt even enter my mind because I dont think many people would consider

that Bloomberg " writes rubbish "

my expression "rubbish" was clearly directed at "zerohedge" (can't find your reading glasses Midas?) using the words "surprising development".

quote: "In what can only be called a rather surprising development, the IMF has disclosed it is selling 403 metric tons of gold..."

p.s. and by the way... Bloomberg and Reuters journàsslists produce quite often not only rubbish but rubbish².

[teletiger]

The "surprising development" would be if they actually sold the gold.

The "threats" over the years by the IMF to sell gold has largely been seen as a CB tool to suppress the gold price.

China has countered this by showing a willingness to, not only buy the 403 tons, but also to buy the whole 3200 ton IMF holding!

Regards.

[Naam]

The "surprising development" would be if they actually sold the gold.

The "threats" over the years by the IMF to sell gold has largely been seen as a CB tool to suppress the gold price.

China has countered this by showing a willingness to, not only buy the 403 tons, but also to buy the whole 3200 ton IMF holding! Regards.

hmmm... China told you so?

[midas]

p.s. and by the way... Bloomberg and Reuters journàsslists produce quite often not only rubbish but rubbish².

many of us know by now that even if we actually witnessed something

happening it would still be a ' wet dream ' in your world

unless you are and your dog said otherwise

[teletiger]

Actually, no, Herr Naam. Common sense told me. Why would China make a public statement as to the availability of something it knows it has no chance of buying? It's sending a message. Playing the CBs at their own game.

As the worlds largest gold producer, (one of many reasons, no doubt) China has a vested interest in a free and unencumbered Gold market.

Regards.

[Naam]

p.s. and by the way... Bloomberg and Reuters journàsslists produce quite often not only rubbish but rubbish².

many of us know by now that even if we actually witnessed something happening it would still be a ' wet dream ' in your world unless you are and your dog said otherwise

you are adapting the well known "Alx_LaLaLa never admit a mistake! facts? what facts? why facts? let's keep on bullshitting!" stance Honourable Midas, Sir. dodging the subject and trying to divert does not work with me.

the subject was "surprising development", did not refer to Bloomberg but to http://www.zerohedge.com and i did not consult my dogs (plural) to get their comments.

by the way... during the last 15 months it happened exactly eleven times that Bloomberg/Reuters journàsslists mixed up billions with millions and reported a "canard" which they had to correct a day or two later.

next!

[Naam]

Actually, no, Herr Naam. Common sense told me. Why would China make a public statement as to the availability of something it knows it has no chance of buying? It's sending a message. Playing the CBs at their own game.

As the worlds largest gold producer, (one of many reasons, no doubt) China has a vested interest in a free and unencumbered Gold market. Regards.

this message was sent encrypted to you and you deciphered it with common sense that China is willing to buy all IMF gold? hats off Mr. Tiger! you have my admiration... whilst wishing i was blessed with some common sense too. is it my fault or is it based on genetics?

[teletiger]

Ohh. I see now. I thought your problem was with my use of the word "countered". Now I see the problem is with the Fact that China has offered to buyout the entire IMF gold holding. It's a matter of public record Herr Naam. DYOR.

Regards.

[teletiger]

China Decision to Buy $80 Billion of Gold, the Dragon's Hoard

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11580.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-go...r-right-reasons

"And it didn't just announce its gold accumulation last week. It also asked the International Monetary Fund to sell its entire 3,217 tons reserve, Kosares points out".

A little help for you.

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

China Decision to Buy $80 Billion of Gold, the Dragon's Hoard

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11580.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-go...r-right-reasons

"And it didn't just announce its gold accumulation last week. It also asked the International Monetary Fund to sell its entire 3,217 tons reserve, Kosares points out".

A little help for you.

Regards.

And why wouldn't they? They've got a printing press too. They could go the QE route which would keep their currency suppressed per their wishes, or the sovereign bond route which there seem to be plenty of folks who want Yuan paper. Or they could just sell some underperforming reserve currency. None of that means they WILL buy of course, only that it's easy enough for them to do so.

Edited September 21, 2009 by lannarebirth

[badge]

UK - Surge in trading by small investors

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7a9acfa2-a494-11...html?ftcamp=rss

[Naam]

Ohh. I see now. I thought your problem was with my use of the word "countered". Now I see the problem is with the Fact that China has offered to buyout the entire IMF gold holding. It's a matter of public record Herr Naam. DYOR.

Regards.

show me the public record.

[Naam]

"And it didn't just announce its gold accumulation last week. It also asked the International Monetary Fund to sell its entire 3,217 tons reserve, Kosares points out".

may i assume "Kosares" is a high ranking member in the chinese political hierarchie?

[zorro1]

DOW HITS 10,000 !

just for the record (next week)

have been quietly accumulating and back to full strength. A minor set back with a gold stock just as I was about to exit (cap raising) short term pain long term gain

Forget your charts for just a second, doesn't anyone else sense it? I keep hearing I missed the rally but really the big money is about to hit on confirmation of 10,000. start your engines gentleman ..

[zorro1]

Gold Flying? whats happening ? futures flying too

Bounced off $1000 & currently $1018. Next stop...who knows?

[zorro1]

Midas? Looks like you gonna have to offload that rice at a discount

I canceled the shed.

There is a yellow glow over Naams house, I could see it from Banyan tree tonight.

[flying]

Gold Flying? whats happening ? futures flying too

Bounced off $1000 & currently $1018. Next stop...who knows?

Well like lannarebirth showed on his chart it has possibility.

But like always who knows is correct but, when it hits $2900 Im out

Same goes for silver when it hits $58 color me gone

Edited September 22, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

Midas? Looks like you gonna have to offload that rice at a discount

I canceled the shed.

There is a yellow glow over Naams house, I could see it from Banyan tree tonight.

Zorro,

You are so excitable you must be a nightmare to live with. Do you realize that at 10,300 the Dow will have retraced just 50% of its losses in the bear market. Obviously from the bulls point of view that shows it potential - still has to rise another 50% to reach new highs - but from the bears point of view it still looks like a fairly standard bounce or bear market rally.

And you should really trade a quality market like here in Thailand - up 90% from its lows and still PE of 3.0x companies generating 30% ROE trading below book.

[midas]

Midas? Looks like you gonna have to offload that rice at a discount

I canceled the shed.

There is a yellow glow over Naams house, I could see it from Banyan tree tonight.

dont cancel the shed cause I will it take over for me and yes you can sell your share

of the rice to me at a discount

Because its what this gold bug says in this short video as to what comes after that makes me think

that there will be some hungry people around

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...sset=&ccode

[zorro1]

Midas? Looks like you gonna have to offload that rice at a discount

I canceled the shed.

There is a yellow glow over Naams house, I could see it from Banyan tree tonight.

Zorro,

You are so excitable you must be a nightmare to live with. Do you realize that at 10,300 the Dow will have retraced just 50% of its losses in the bear market. Obviously from the bulls point of view that shows it potential - still has to rise another 50% to reach new highs - but from the bears point of view it still looks like a fairly standard bounce or bear market rally.

And you should really trade a quality market like here in Thailand - up 90% from its lows and still PE of 3.0x companies generating 30% ROE trading below book.

Yeah missed the SET rally but my g/f bought into a fund 8months ago after watching me. yes Im hel_l to live with just ask both my ex wives. excitable? why wouldnt I be? I trade against the rules and have taken huge calculated risks and they payed off And to think i was quite content with 8% in the bank when it was available yuk! buy the way N.Z officially out of recession today (border line), one by one they emerge, just baby steps no fireworks but it all helps to form a base

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=6187

[Abrak]

Midas? Looks like you gonna have to offload that rice at a discount

I canceled the shed.

There is a yellow glow over Naams house, I could see it from Banyan tree tonight.

Zorro,

You are so excitable you must be a nightmare to live with. Do you realize that at 10,300 the Dow will have retraced just 50% of its losses in the bear market. Obviously from the bulls point of view that shows it potential - still has to rise another 50% to reach new highs - but from the bears point of view it still looks like a fairly standard bounce or bear market rally.

And you should really trade a quality market like here in Thailand - up 90% from its lows and still PE of 3.0x companies generating 30% ROE trading below book.

Yeah missed the SET rally but my g/f bought into a fund 8months ago after watching me. yes Im hel_l to live with just ask both my ex wives. excitable? why wouldnt I be? I trade against the rules and have taken huge calculated risks and they payed off And to think i was quite content with 8% in the bank when it was available yuk! buy the way N.Z officially out of recession today (border line), one by one they emerge, just baby steps no fireworks but it all helps to form a base

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=6187

I am taking the piss - always best to stick to what you know. The day I arrived in Thailand 15 years ago the market was 666, now it is 710. So I am having an 'every dog has its day moment'.

BTW I think you should cut out the fundamental stuff (NZ is coming out of recession) because I dont believe you are interested, believe in it or trade on the back of it. As you rightly pointed out we are in throw the fundamentals out the window and go with the flow time.

We dont have anything like the same investment philosophy but there are lots of different strategies. But we are getting a little spivvy at these levels. You are in not in because you believe in the market but because you can get out before everyone else (I did ask you whether you thought the market would be higher at xmas and you said you had no idea.) I am the opposite of you - very value oriented, more long term - and I dont really believe in the market but I do believe that if I find a 3x earnings stock it will double (and in this market within a month).

So I do think we are getting to wrong end of a cycle.

[zorro1]

"BTW I think you should cut out the fundamental stuff (NZ is coming out of recession) because I dont believe you are interested"

you know me to well

Was expecting Midas to reply to that but he must be down at the rice wholesalers

"I dont really believe in the market but I do believe that if I find a 3x earnings stock it will double (and in this market within a month)"

very true. These days I mostly buy into ex cap rasing stock , usually a few cents under cap and wait for the instos to sell it down and then hold for a month or trade it if there is a big swing

[Naam]

very true. These days I mostly buy into ex cap rasing stock , usually a few cents under cap and wait for the instos to sell it down and then hold for a month or trade it if there is a big swing

disgusting!

[zorro1]

very true. These days I mostly buy into ex cap rasing stock , usually a few cents under cap and wait for the instos to sell it down and then hold for a month or trade it if there is a big swing

disgusting!

[flying]

"Have The Federal Reserve Or Prime Brokers Ever Tried To Manipulate The Stock Market?"

Alan Grayson: I would like to know whether it is within the Federal Reserve's legal authority to try to manipulate the stock market or the futures market.

Federal Reserve GC Scott Alvarez: I don't believe the Federal Reserve tries to manipulate the stock market...(Yoda: Do or do not, there is no try.)

Alan Grayson: Does the Federal Reserve actually possess all the gold that's listed on their balance sheet.

Scott Alvarez, doing a classic poker body language tell, and taking his time: Yes...

Alan Grayson: Who actually executes the trades for the Federal Reserve in the markets?

Scott Alvarez: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which executes trades through Primary Dealers.

Alan Grayson: Can you name one Primary Dealer?

Scott Alvarez: JP Morgan Chase

Alan Grayson: Do you mind if we have a GAO audit to see if there has been front-running or insider trading by them? Do you mind? Is that ok with you?

Scott Alvarez: I am not sure if I have that authority...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/has-feder...t-prime-brokers

Edited September 25, 2009 by flying

[teletiger]

How did Paul Volkers "bitch-slapping" of Buffalo Ben go down? I read a pre transcript.

Regards.

[Abrak]

Just been looking through the performance figures of 446 listed Thai stocks. Only 12 are over 20% away from their 52 week high while 34 have risen by over 150% from their 9 month lows. Getting a little difficult to find stuff - 5 company visits last week all a waste of time.

There are even 19 stocks within 10% of their all time highs which considering the all time high of the SET was 1784 and it is currently 710 is pretty amazing (largely due to new listings.)

The numbers are slightly distorted by the fact that 52 week prices are intraday while all time figures are closing prices.

Basically when a stockmarket falls 60% straight down the first thing you buy are the stocks with same E. Namely A stock was trading on say 12x is now trading on 3x. But that isnt rocket scientist stuff so it happens fairly quickly (actually not so quickly in Thailand because it is regarded as uninvestable.) In theory the next phase is to buy something that share price is depressed because of the downturn. You know say you believe the Oriental Hotel is say a good business but its PE might be 100x or infinite. So you buy it on third book and 1x peak earnings (or long term average earnings etc) on the basis that earnings will get back there one day.

But while there are a few scrabbly stocks on phase 1. (you know you can find a stock yielding 14% this year BUT) 2. the second phase seems months away Bumrungrad Hospital is half its highs but still 15x earnings peak earnings with earnings down 30% in the first half. Yeah I know Bangkok Land would look pretty good, I am sure it made Bt2-3 EPS one year is one times historic PE of peak earnings but it is excluded from my database by several fairly sensible reasons. The best I can find so far on that basis is RCL on 2x historic peak EPS and half book, when they are losing sheds loads a quarter and that aint great - a few more quarters and it will be 1x BV at the same price. I certainly wouldnt buy that.