The Stock Market

[khunjake]

I don't understand the markets your right!

That's why I'm still holding long 2x S&P500 funds since 815.50 on April 7th..

I'm still bearish on many fronts but as a trader, I'm a realist and see no sell short signs as far as thee I can see..

Maybe I'll let you know when I do flip from dong to snort..

Or maybe not.......................................................

[zorro1]

I don't understand the markets your right!

That's why I'm still holding long 2x S&P500 funds since 815.50 on April 7th..

I'm still bearish on many fronts but as a trader, I'm a realist and see no sell short signs as far as thee I can see..

Maybe I'll let you know when I do flip from dong to snort..

Or maybe not.......................................................

Ha Ha they been telling me I dont understand the markets all the way up! not one single useful post from the bears except " I worry about you"

" be careful"

" your arrogant"

" you will get burnt like me"

Thats about it. Not one single successful call . Not one bear admitting to a short from 6500. NOT one. They not to be trusted

[Naam]

you forgot to mention my repeated "Zorro you are disgusting!"

[zorro1]

you forgot to mention my repeated "Zorro you are disgusting!"

disgusting indeed money doesnt grow on trees you know... thank god for the markets, tree huggers always looked poor to me, how disgusting is that

[zorro1]

Anyway Im off. market well overdue for red. green would make even me suspicouse

[badge]

I don't understand the markets your right!

That's why I'm still holding long 2x S&P500 funds since 815.50 on April 7th..

I'm still bearish on many fronts but as a trader, I'm a realist and see no sell short signs as far as thee I can see..

Maybe I'll let you know when I do flip from dong to snort..

Or maybe not.......................................................

While it might not pay to bail on SSO just now, there is unmistakably signs to be cautious now.

[Abrak]

you forgot to mention my repeated "Zorro you are disgusting!"

disgusting indeed money doesnt grow on trees you know... thank god for the markets, tree huggers always looked poor to me, how disgusting is that

Yes tree huggers are poor, Zorro. But when you make some real money, it is possible that you might want to make one or two of them rich, which is actually quite easy to achieve if they hug the tree tight enough and for long enough. However, the really irritating thing is this, the tree huggers like being poor and really dont want to become rich especially while they are hugging their tree. And if you make then the vaguest semblance of money they stop hugging their tree, lie down on the ground and burst into tears under some bipolar disorder breakdown.

[loong]

I don't understand the markets your right!

That's why I'm still holding long 2x S&P500 funds since 815.50 on April 7th..

I'm still bearish on many fronts but as a trader, I'm a realist and see no sell short signs as far as thee I can see..

Maybe I'll let you know when I do flip from dong to snort..

Or maybe not.......................................................

Ha Ha they been telling me I dont understand the markets all the way up! not one single useful post from the bears except " I worry about you"

" be careful"

" your arrogant"

" you will get burnt like me"

Thats about it. Not one single successful call . Not one bear admitting to a short from 6500. NOT one. They not to be trusted

Why would anybody call a short if they are not shorting???

What you don't realise Zorro, is that many experienced traders can recognise in you , a past version of themselves. I was once like you, riding high on profitable trade after profitable trade and then the market kicked me squarely in the Goolies.

I have learnt from my experiences and now trade accordingly. If it means that I do not trade for 6 months - so be it. I will trade when the market conditions indicate that the time is right for my style of trading.

October 2008 to May 2009 there were some good periods of consolidation. I made some nice profits. Since May, there have been very few opportunities to suit my style of trading, so I have mostly stayed out of the market. May , I gave back some of the profits that I had made because of the lack of volatility and no real ranging in the market. June, I made back the losses accrued in May and since then have taken very little part in the market.

I no longer buy shares for a long term hold, I have learnt that that is not profitable. Every company at some time will go bankrupt. In 50 years time if anyone mentions microsoft, the response will be "who"??

I have been trading for about 10 years and I am still learning. Thankfully, I do not make so many mistakes nowadays.

One mistake that I definitely will not make is jumping on a bandwagon, I'm not going to think that I've missed out and i won't worry about it.

When I had been trading my first year and made good profits, I thought that I was invincible and could do no wrong. Yes the market was good to me for a year or so and then put me firmly in my place.

Zorro, what you don't understand is that some people posting here have a lot of experience and have decided not to participate in the market because it is founded on quicksand. So why do you have to crow because you are making money? I am happy for you that you are taking profits, I hope that it continues for you, but why do you feel that you have to put people down who have decided not to enter this market?

If I do not trade at the moment, I cannot lose money, but over the next 5 years, I am confident that I will turn a profit because of my style of trading. My experience will enable me to make a profit while the inexperienced will lose, that is an historical fact and most certainly will be a fact in the future.

[zorro1]

I don't understand the markets your right!

That's why I'm still holding long 2x S&P500 funds since 815.50 on April 7th..

I'm still bearish on many fronts but as a trader, I'm a realist and see no sell short signs as far as thee I can see..

Maybe I'll let you know when I do flip from dong to snort..

Or maybe not.......................................................

Ha Ha they been telling me I dont understand the markets all the way up! not one single useful post from the bears except " I worry about you"

" be careful"

" your arrogant"

" you will get burnt like me"

Thats about it. Not one single successful call . Not one bear admitting to a short from 6500. NOT one. They not to be trusted

Why would anybody call a short if they are not shorting???

What you don't realise Zorro, is that many experienced traders can recognise in you , a past version of themselves. I was once like you, riding high on profitable trade after profitable trade and then the market kicked me squarely in the Goolies.

I have learnt from my experiences and now trade accordingly. If it means that I do not trade for 6 months - so be it. I will trade when the market conditions indicate that the time is right for my style of trading.

October 2008 to May 2009 there were some good periods of consolidation. I made some nice profits. Since May, there have been very few opportunities to suit my style of trading, so I have mostly stayed out of the market. May , I gave back some of the profits that I had made because of the lack of volatility and no real ranging in the market. June, I made back the losses accrued in May and since then have taken very little part in the market.

I no longer buy shares for a long term hold, I have learnt that that is not profitable. Every company at some time will go bankrupt. In 50 years time if anyone mentions microsoft, the response will be "who"??

I have been trading for about 10 years and I am still learning. Thankfully, I do not make so many mistakes nowadays.

One mistake that I definitely will not make is jumping on a bandwagon, I'm not going to think that I've missed out and i won't worry about it.

When I had been trading my first year and made good profits, I thought that I was invincible and could do no wrong. Yes the market was good to me for a year or so and then put me firmly in my place.

Zorro, what you don't understand is that some people posting here have a lot of experience and have decided not to participate in the market because it is founded on quicksand. So why do you have to crow because you are making money? I am happy for you that you are taking profits, I hope that it continues for you, but why do you feel that you have to put people down who have decided not to enter this market?

If I do not trade at the moment, I cannot lose money, but over the next 5 years, I am confident that I will turn a profit because of my style of trading. My experience will enable me to make a profit while the inexperienced will lose, that is an historical fact and most certainly will be a fact in the future.

Who did I put down?

I have been crowing since day one, why change now? No different to the negatives you have posted every single post except you have to be humble brother, its difficult to downramp every day in a rising market however you havnt stopped your mission. Should I whisper like you? would that change the context of my message? its annoying that you continue to preach doom and its annoying that you fail to make money. See your just like me in reverse so look at yourself before criticizing me and my style . No offense, no harm. lets continue the journey

[lannarebirth]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price likes to test areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

We still remain in the relative volume vacuum (horizontal bars) and that usually allows price to keep moving (up in this case). Got some long thin candles from Sept. '08 at this price area and they coud burn quickly.

That said, I bought puts today ($SPX options). I don't know if anyone remembers this inverted chart?

Edited November 12, 2009 by lannarebirth

[flying]

That said, I bought puts today ($SPX options). I don't know if anyone remembers this inverted chart?

That is such an interesting way of looking at it.

I am curious as I am not invested in the market per se'

That the DOW did hit its 50% retrace mark intraday yesterday

[William Osborne]

Good post Loong.... interesting how most analyists got it all so wrong last year even with their crystal ball graphs.....

Edited November 12, 2009 by William Osborne

[Paulo1]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price likes to test areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

We still remain in the relative volume vacuum (horizontal bars) and that usually allows price to keep moving (up in this case). Got some long thin candles from Sept. '08 at this price area and they coud burn quickly.

That said, I bought puts today ($SPX options). I don't know if anyone remembers this inverted chart?

I fail to see the importance of your MA's on your chart when ONE simple trendline can shoe the same but far more accurate. MA's Lag.

No offence.

[lannarebirth]

We still remain in the relative volume vacuum (horizontal bars) and that usually allows price to keep moving (up in this case). Got some long thin candles from Sept. '08 at this price area and they coud burn quickly.

That said, I bought puts today ($SPX options). I don't know if anyone remembers this inverted chart?

I fail to see the importance of your MA's on your chart when ONE simple trendline can shoe the same but far more accurate. MA's Lag.

No offence.

None taken. As Herr Naam says "there's no need to discuss the brushstroke blah, blah...."

Anyhow the chart is a static view that tries to approximate my live charts containing programmed algorithms. The algorithms give an adaptive presentation which subsumes trendlines, fibs, pivots, etc., making them superfluous. I hope I'm not being patronising if I suggest you do a seach of least means squares.

What I use doesn't lag, it leads. It doesn't work all the time, but then what does?

[zorro1]

Eurozone emerges from recession

Germany, the world's biggest exporter, has seen a pick-up in exports The eurozone economy has emerged from recession after growing between July and September, figures have shown.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8358227.stm

[zorro1]

Eurozone emerges from recession

Germany, the world's biggest exporter, has seen a pick-up in exports The eurozone economy has emerged from recession after growing between July and September, figures have shown.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8358227.stm

[zorro1]

Cant see to much more downside as we head toward xmas and the xmas rally "we have to have"

November without doubt is the riskiest month for trading the markets as mentioned by Warren Buffet and according to him the other bad months are

jan,feb,mar,april, may,june,july,august,sept and october

Edited November 14, 2009 by zorro1

[khunjake]

While it might not pay to bail on SSO just now, there is unmistakably signs to be cautious now.

Perhaps. I use an "always-in" strategy so hence I am always long or always short. When its time to bail, then I exit long and flip 2x short. As of today, long trade still in effect from April 7th. See no reason to jump off because the market feels bearish or think the uptrend is ending. I let the strategy do the thinking and acting.

Maybe I still don't understand the markets though?

[zorro1]

Perhaps. I use an "always-in" strategy so hence I am always long or always short. When its time to bail, then I exit long and flip 2x short. As of today, long trade still in effect from April 7th. See no reason to jump off because the market feels bearish or think the uptrend is ending. I let the strategy do the thinking and acting.

Maybe I still don't understand the markets though?

[/quote}

bears think that every new high = beginning of a new low. But what would you know LOL errrrm be careful out there

One question for the bears, lets assume we do make a V recovery, what then? how will You make $ chasing a few pips sideways or down maybe 1 or 2 thousand points?. That will be beer money . What a waste..

Im in all the way untill a downtrend is confirmed 100% but dont see anything right now, let her ride..

Edited November 14, 2009 by zorro1

[lannarebirth]

Perhaps. I use an "always-in" strategy so hence I am always long or always short. When its time to bail, then I exit long and flip 2x short. As of today, long trade still in effect from April 7th. See no reason to jump off because the market feels bearish or think the uptrend is ending. I let the strategy do the thinking and acting.

Maybe I still don't understand the markets though?

[/quote}

bears think that every new high = beginning of a new low. But what would you know LOL errrrm be careful out there

One question for the bears, lets assume we do make a V recovery, what then? how will You make $ chasing a few pips sideways or down maybe 1 or 2 thousand points?. That will be beer money . What a waste..

Im in all the way untill a downtrend is confirmed 100% but dont see anything right now, let her ride..

I'm not a bear per se, but I get the impression you're talking to me. I don't post trades much but the last one I did could be construed as bearish as I'd bought puts. They appreciated 60% in 4 hours and i sold them. The gain was more than my family spends in 2 months. That's the object, right? To pull money out of the market? You seem to need to create some adversarial environment to justify your actions or non actions. Why would i care what you are doing to make money, or why would you care what I'm doing? Just wondering.

[zorro1]

wasnt talking to you. Im a totall newb compared to you and find your knowledge very impressive. my aim is purely at those who sit on the sidelines being committed bears. I dont get that . why not swap suits?

[lannarebirth]

wasnt talking to you. Im a totall newb compared to you and find your knowledge very impressive. my aim is purely at those who sit on the sidelines being committed bears. I dont get that . why not swap suits?

For the record, here's my view, which I shared with another forum member on May 18th:

"Markets wise the $SPX probed its 34 week ema (one of the most important levels in my work and which I posted about at TV). That should be expected to halt the advance. At this time I expect no more than a few weeks of consolidation below that level and an attempt at breeching the 34 week ema once again. If the market is successful there it could advance for months. If it is not successful there I think more bottom building work is in order. My personal bias at this time is that we will not be seeing the March lows again anytime soon. See chart" :

As you can see, that's m/l what happened.

[Abrak]

One question for the bears, lets assume we do make a V recovery, what then? how will You make $ chasing a few pips sideways or down maybe 1 or 2 thousand points?. That will be beer money . What a waste..

Im in all the way untill a downtrend is confirmed 100% but dont see anything right now, let her ride..

Your post is a little confusing to me. Are you saying a 'V' shaped economic recovery will be good or bad for the stock market. If you are saying it will be bad I entirely agree with you. The markets to me are being driven by the decline in real interest rates and a 'V' shaped recovery would mean rates rising sooner rather than later which would be bad for the markets. A tepid uncertain recovery would keep rates at ZIRP while there would still be underlying growth.

Valuation wise what would happen is there would be a one off and permanent hike to the perception of discount rates (say 200 basis points) while although there would be a much bigger shift in earnings short term (assuming 7% GDP growth) and a quicker return to normalized earnings your longer term earnings growth projections would not shift much and the underlying valuation of equities would fall. Not as far as it would crucify bond and gold markets. Still this is all highly unlikely.

[jazzbo]

Valuation wise

what would happen is there would be a

one off and permanent

hike to the perception of discount rates (say 200 basis points) while although there would be a much bigger

shift in earnings short term

(assuming 7% GDP growth) and a quicker return to

normalized earnings

your

longer term earnings growth projections

would not shift much and the

underlying valuation

of equities would fall. Not as far as it would

crucify bond and gold markets.

Still this is all highly unlikely.

or just go here: http://www.1728.com/buzzword.htm

[zorro1]

Interesting tea leaves DJIA. Any comments from bulls or bears? 10300 is new support resistance leading to 10500 or a trace to 10000

Edited November 15, 2009 by zorro1

[khunjake]

bears think that every new high = beginning of a new low. But what would you know LOL errrrm be careful out there

Im in all the way untill a downtrend is confirmed 100% but dont see anything right now, let her ride..

Regardless of the mechanical aspects that I incorporate, a widely regarded collegue of mine has a invested target of 1350 on the SPX by March '10. The bears "might" get their chance to get short if they haven't blown themselves out by then. Until then more gains on the way are quite possible. Also he points out the liquidity pumping comparison 2003 and 2009, look at the gains registered alone from Nov-March of '03.

[flying]

Interesting tea leaves DJIA. Any comments from bulls or bears? 10300 is new support resistance leading to 10500 or a trace to 10000

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/dowsp5001112/?we1113

[Naam]

retrace clearly in the cards. here's the proof:

[zorro1]

retrace clearly in the cards. here's the proof:

Yes 100% correct as always Naam. I can see by the blood splattering that some side ways action followed by a decending triangle pattern wich is very obviuouse at the base of your pic. I assume we are looking at the blood spread an not the ded chicken Right?. Im new to this so forgive if I miss read .I might try this with my cat preopen Monday, If it the same then yes I will sell. Will post results monday morning

[Naam]

I might try this with my cat preopen Monday, If it the same then yes I will sell. Will post results monday morning

cats are not suitable for voodoo Zorro. you need a chicken or a goat! in rare cases a girlfriend will do