The Stock Market

[merlin1]

Good to read other's views on here, especially since there is a wealth of experience and knowledge.

My sense is we need a deep retracement now. This rally couldn't go much further on such indifferent volume. Too many people sitting on the sidelines. It needs to consolidate if it is to have any chance of creating a sustained bull market.

As it is, I think it has too many parallels with the 1930 rally and therefore should be treated as nothing more than a bear market rally.

I think we go lower into October and November before moving higher. One possible scenario might be to match the Nov 2008 lows of about 7500-8000. This would create an inverted head and shoulders pattern which would be a more convincing buy signal for investors wanting to get back in for 2010.

Anyway, we're down big today so we may not see SPX 1010 again until next year. And even that is not certain.

[humbug]

http://www.kaufmanreport.com/The%20Reports...017,%202009.pdf

i like this report for its simplicity on understanding daily US charts

[midas]

Just announced CNN Japan out of recession today. Not short yet , maybe good buying tomorrow?

these simplified headlines that never tell you the fine print :-

A deteriorating jobs market is also likely to undermine Japanese consumer spending after government subsidies on energy-efficient cars and home appliances expire. This could delay a recovery in capital expenditure, economists say.

"Today's data was driven by stimulus steps in Japan and overseas, so Japan's economy is far from self-sustaining growth," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist for Japan at Barclays ( BCS - news - people ) Capital.

or

" But the rise in output isn't likely to translate into higher corporate spending as manufacturers are still operating at around 70 percent of capacity, economists say.

Capital expenditure in April-June marked five consecutive quarters of contraction, the longest such streak since 1976 ".

[Abrak]

Here's a couple of interesting charts.... First shows the yield on treasuries...

With the real yield looking the most attractive in 20 years. Now I was sent this chart and I do realize it is essentially dodgy as it compares short term CPI against longer term UST yields but it is a popular chart.

The second point is that even if you take a more realistic look at inflation expectations they are coming down. Based on ten year TIPS 10 year inflation is now expected to be below 1.7% compared to 2.0% a couple of months ago.

Theoretically this should be pretty horrible for equities - a rising risk free real rate combined with lower long term EPS growth assumptions (due to lower CPI). Obviously they are holding up very well considering, as is gold.

I guess it would also imply that some bounce in the dollar wouldnt be surprising.

[zorro1]

sold off 70% of stock on open today. Bought a lot of penny stock months back and figured they would get hammered and hammered they were. Could have bought them back at a nice discount but not yet. Was foolish enough (and lucky) to put my life savings into the markets a while back as a newbie. Just realising now how insane that was. All my retirement money and maxed out 2 credit cards to 30k to average down at one point. Day trading all of a sudden is becoming way more appealing however the days of sending a cheque off to a broker have been replaced by millions on live trading platforms with itchy triiger finger so the rallys are very short lived theses days with most taking profits as soon there is a bit of green. No doubt this will change in a few years when everyone goes long again with confidence.

tonight looks like short covering. If we keep have lower lows and lower highs this week then the trend down should be confirmed. Anyway whatever happens it will be nice to get some descent sleep for the first time in months

[zorro1]

Just announced CNN Japan out of recession today. Not short yet , maybe good buying tomorrow?

these simplified headlines that never tell you the fine print :-

A deteriorating jobs market is also likely to undermine Japanese consumer spending after government subsidies on energy-efficient cars and home appliances expire. This could delay a recovery in capital expenditure, economists say.

"Today's data was driven by stimulus steps in Japan and overseas, so Japan's economy is far from self-sustaining growth," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist for Japan at Barclays ( BCS - news - people ) Capital.

or

" But the rise in output isn't likely to translate into higher corporate spending as manufacturers are still operating at around 70 percent of capacity, economists say.

Capital expenditure in April-June marked five consecutive quarters of contraction, the longest such streak since 1976 ".

Correct Midas they are officially out but GDP less than analysts hoped for. So Im a short term bear now. Can we be friends?

[midas]

Just announced CNN Japan out of recession today. Not short yet , maybe good buying tomorrow?

these simplified headlines that never tell you the fine print :-

A deteriorating jobs market is also likely to undermine Japanese consumer spending after government subsidies on energy-efficient cars and home appliances expire. This could delay a recovery in capital expenditure, economists say.

"Today's data was driven by stimulus steps in Japan and overseas, so Japan's economy is far from self-sustaining growth," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist for Japan at Barclays ( BCS - news - people ) Capital.

or

" But the rise in output isn't likely to translate into higher corporate spending as manufacturers are still operating at around 70 percent of capacity, economists say.

Capital expenditure in April-June marked five consecutive quarters of contraction, the longest such streak since 1976 ".

Correct Midas they are officially out but GDP less than analysts hoped for. So Im a short term bear now. Can we be friends?

Of course we can zorro !

I heard this on Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a5clOecPdAjg

The way I read things – it was only wishful thinking ( i.e.sentiment ) that

propelled the rally in the first place - there was nothing of real substance to celebrate

but now I sense a complete shift in sentiment – probably made worse by this news from China.

Do you agree or disagree and do you think this will prevent any further

gains on the DJIA ?

[zorro1]

Just announced CNN Japan out of recession today. Not short yet , maybe good buying tomorrow?

these simplified headlines that never tell you the fine print :-

A deteriorating jobs market is also likely to undermine Japanese consumer spending after government subsidies on energy-efficient cars and home appliances expire. This could delay a recovery in capital expenditure, economists say.

"Today's data was driven by stimulus steps in Japan and overseas, so Japan's economy is far from self-sustaining growth," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist for Japan at Barclays ( BCS - news - people ) Capital.

or

" But the rise in output isn't likely to translate into higher corporate spending as manufacturers are still operating at around 70 percent of capacity, economists say.

Capital expenditure in April-June marked five consecutive quarters of contraction, the longest such streak since 1976 ".

Correct Midas they are officially out but GDP less than analysts hoped for. So Im a short term bear now. Can we be friends?

Of course we can zorro !

I heard this on Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a5clOecPdAjg

The way I read things – it was only wishful thinking ( i.e.sentiment ) that

propelled the rally in the first place - there was nothing of real substance to celebrate

but now I sense a complete shift in sentiment – probably made worse by this news from China.

Do you agree or disagree and do you think this will prevent any further

gains on the DJIA ?

Midas, I did say i was a short term bear but bought up again today. Last nights rally was serious and way more than just a short cover in the end. It appears we are back to the wild swing days several months back which clearly indicates nobody has a flippin clue!

Here is a perfect example today , Qantas Which i sold a few weeks back ,before this article came out yesterday on thebull.com.au and was released as an announcement

QAN - QANTAS AIRWAYS LTD - up 13 cents, or five per cent, at $2.73

Qantas Airways says demand for air travel appears to be improving after Australia's biggest airline posted an 87.9 per cent drop in annual net profit and flagged further cost cutting.

I would have made plenty if I waited for this (but would have sold the day before if I had known). 1 year ago qan would have been smashed on this info. Go figure?

Edited August 19, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

wow dow just jumped to 80+

[zorro1]

Rallying on oil hitting 2 week highs, gold futures up & dollar down. Will be interesting to see if it can hold this momentum till close.

[flying]

Thursday, August 13, 2009

An Avalanche of Insider Stock Selling

What's the "message" of the market here? Over the last two weeks corporate insiders have dumped over $2.1 billion in stock vs. $73.1 million in buys. I'm not sure I've ever seen the ratio of insider sells vs. buys this skewed toward officers and directors looking for the exit door. Talk about the captain jumping into the lifeboat and speeding away before the ship sinks....

Given that the trailing, "as reported" price/earnings ratio is now 144, or substantially above the peak p/e ratio on the Nasdaq at the top of the tech bubble, what is the market trying to tell us?

Think about that when you call up your financial advisor or broker and tell him you want get out of the stock market.

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/08/av...ck-selling.html

[zorro1]

They can only dump if some one buys. Futures just turned green again

First to admit the markets are irrational to nearly all non traders. However to keep it simple the markets are never wrong. I know a few people that lost 50% on the way down and then shorted the market 3 mths ago. Burnt 2 times. Trade cautiously and use a stop loss, doesn't get any easier than that

[nakachalet]

zorro1

as my senility increases by the day, i am not at all sure what i knew is actually the fact.

for whatever it is worth, as i vaguely recall, there is a group inside the exchange pit, who are normally referred to by those who are familiar with them, as market makers....

the market makers are the ones who would take our trades, regardless of how outrageous or how irrational or how unreasonable....

normally you could pretty much identify them visually.... lol most of them are heavy set and very eloquent--fast talkers.... lol

brothers and sisters.... when your trades head the wrong ways.... these are the guys that take both your trades and your money. they practically sleep on the floor of the exchange when they are not at their 7-figure penthouses.... lol

the bounty hunters have an APB out on these guys--shoot on sight.... lol

in reality, no one forces us to trade, to buy or to sell or to straddle.... lol

it certainly serves us right.... lol to get into the ring UNPREPARED with the like of mike tyson.... lol

now you know, why most of us are losing so much, so fast against the professional market makers--licensed killers, james bond of the markets.... lol

Edited August 20, 2009 by nakachalet

[zorro1]

yes fine gold totally agree, we are mere plankton controlled by a few very large and very rich whales! and when the market falls they are there again catching there money back and buying again cheaper and so the cycle continues. However a lot has changed as the burnt became wise to "the game" and dont play by the rules anymore. Stock manipulation is blatant and ASX should be ashamed but they need "them" more than they need us so whilst promising to investigate at the highest level they never do anything. 2 stocks I own NDO and BMN get closed down by 1cent in auction every single day for weeks. Check them on your platform and you will see both finishing at 1 share as the final trade at auction. Why would they do that ? easy they want to accumilate at lower price next day and also it skews charts. Pre crash this would have caused panic and a quick sale by many but not anymore. Punters simply refuse play the game and give away there very fundamentally good stock (as both the above are ) to greedy manipulative sharks. This is why the sell off mentioned is not driving the market down and at this at this stage the smell of burning shorts is pungent LOL. Of course this could change in a millisecond however the golden cross favoring the bulls seems to be an accurate indicator. We bounced back above 9200 on Dow just like that! and continue to make gains so for me Im all the way back in again either untill we stay under 9200 for 2 - 3 days and falling or we hit 10000. Live trading gives us the freedom to exit at any second, cant even imagine the old days when you had post check to your broker

[zorro1]

How bizzare! jobless UP by 15000 futures dive but Dow turning green now. Still very very early in the night to make a call however if in the morning we are still green I will sell my grandmother to buy a few more speckies

[nakachalet]

can any seasoned traders guess what kind of commodity trading chart i am trading on?....

i was shorting after the opening and would be closing out all positions really soon....

well, it is not much.... but a winner is a winner at any rate and under any condition.... lol

cheers everyone

hope you all would be just as profitable as well, the rest of the evening or the rest of the day depending where you are enjoying yourself at.... lol

Edited August 20, 2009 by nakachalet

[zorro1]

gee your avatar kind of gave it away LOL, well done its only green if its in the bank, cheers

p.s its dropped a tad more since you posted

Edited August 20, 2009 by zorro1

[Abrak]

can any seasoned traders guess what kind of commodity trading chart i am trading on?....

i was shorting after the opening and would be closing out all positions really soon....

well, it is not much.... but a winner is a winner at any rate and under any condition.... lol

cheers everyone

hope you all would be just as profitable as well, the rest of the evening or the rest of the day depending where you are enjoying yourself at.... lol

Well from what I see it simply looks like the price of gold.

But I am not a seasoned trader and I suspect that it is a fancy derivative of some sort. Still a simple gold chart wouldnt look much different.

[lannarebirth]

can any seasoned traders guess what kind of commodity trading chart i am trading on?....

i was shorting after the opening and would be closing out all positions really soon....

well, it is not much.... but a winner is a winner at any rate and under any condition.... lol

cheers everyone

hope you all would be just as profitable as well, the rest of the evening or the rest of the day depending where you are enjoying yourself at.... lol

Well from what I see it simply looks like the price of gold.

But I am not a seasoned trader and I suspect that it is a fancy derivative of some sort. Still a simple gold chart wouldnt look much different.

It'sthe GCV9 but that's not the question he asked. He asked what kind of commodity trading chart it is. I don't know, looks like most other candlestick charts except for his own indicators on it.

[zorro1]

Thought it was snap shot of gold that he shorted but Im no seasoned trader

edit der the question is about the chart? looks like any candle stick style to me

Edited August 20, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

just found this link. Brilliant live candlestick for Dow . updated every minute or so real time

http://www.stockmaster.in/dow.html

[zorro1]

How bizzare! jobless UP by 15000 futures dive but Dow turning green now. Still very very early in the night to make a call however if in the morning we are still green I will sell my grandmother to buy a few more speckies

up 70. granny gone

seriously Im bored, am I the only Bull on TV?

[Abrak]

How bizzare! jobless UP by 15000 futures dive but Dow turning green now. Still very very early in the night to make a call however if in the morning we are still green I will sell my grandmother to buy a few more speckies

up 70. granny gone

seriously Im bored, am I the only Bull on TV?

Why would this bore you? If you are the only bull on TV then you are 90% certain to be right. I do believe in other threads there are people who are long too. I do believe though that in general you have negative sentiment on your side.

[zorro1]

your right my calls have been around 90% right, maybe I'm to bullish for even the bulls lol , anyway will give it a rest for a few weeks and not post.

[Abrak]

your right my calls have been around 90% right, maybe I'm to bullish for even the bulls lol , anyway will give it a rest for a few weeks and not post.

At the point that you are getting 90% of your trading calls right, it is a good sign that you stop trading imho.

[zorro1]

I wont say anymore except you can click my nick and see my disclosure of what stocks I bought back in November and what they are worth now. No one could have got it wrong if they jumped in hard 10 months ago. I didnt know any better at the time but seemed logical the market bottomed way more upside .What I have learn t in that time sitting in front of a screen 6 hours a day is priceless. and still staying up all night watching cnn to get a feel for tomorrow . I certainly wont stop trading but thanks for the advice, good night, only 3 hours before ASX opens and sooo tired

[Abrak]

I wont say anymore except you can click my nick and see my disclosure of what stocks I bought back in November and what they are worth now. No one could have got it wrong if they jumped in hard 10 months ago. I didnt know any better at the time but seemed logical the market bottomed way more upside .What I have learn t in that time sitting in front of a screen 6 hours a day is priceless. and still staying up all night watching cnn to get a feel for tomorrow . I certainly wont stop trading but thanks for the advice, good night, only 3 hours before ASX opens and sooo tired

Zorro,

I am in no way doubting your word, simply offering what I believe is honest advice.

If you have successfulyl traded with a 90% success level (which I have done in the past) you may believe that you can do it in the future (which I believe to be a mistake). As such you may well place trading bets large enough to wipe out historic returns.

If you have got 90% of your trading bets correct, I believe (especially given the money you have made) that your best policy is to take a rest. My advice was both genuine and honest and learnt unfortunately from bitter experience. It just seems better to assume that your abnormal returns are not a result of you r genius.

[loong]

Actually, you made me check.

Since 1st November 2008 I have bought 10 lots of shares and 9 have given me profits.

So I was right 90% with my purchases -unfortunately, the ones that I've sold were 100% at the wrong time

[zorro1]

I wont say anymore except you can click my nick and see my disclosure of what stocks I bought back in November and what they are worth now. No one could have got it wrong if they jumped in hard 10 months ago. I didnt know any better at the time but seemed logical the market bottomed way more upside .What I have learn t in that time sitting in front of a screen 6 hours a day is priceless. and still staying up all night watching cnn to get a feel for tomorrow . I certainly wont stop trading but thanks for the advice, good night, only 3 hours before ASX opens and sooo tired

Zorro,

I am in no way doubting your word, simply offering what I believe is honest advice.

If you have successfulyl traded with a 90% success level (which I have done in the past) you may believe that you can do it in the future (which I believe to be a mistake). As such you may well place trading bets large enough to wipe out historic returns.

If you have got 90% of your trading bets correct, I believe (especially given the money you have made) that your best policy is to take a rest. My advice was both genuine and honest and learnt unfortunately from bitter experience. It just seems better to assume that your abnormal returns are not a result of you r genius.

sorry for taking it the wrong way you are right. And yes i am the first to admit that it was more luck , how could it be anything else as a newbie. However I have learnt a lot, sold off many that continued up and over 300% today but my biggest learn was to take profits.. Just as many stock have dropped a 100% after I sold. I have also learned to only hold long on cashed up coys with good mgmt and just completed capitol raising and with a chinese stake such as MII (never for sale) maybe . The last few months I have only placed orders at 1 c above good coys that have just announced capitol raising always followed by a 30% drop , most coys pump the price before an Ann is out.

here are a few examples

BMN was 1.45 ann out caiptol raising $1 my order filled at 1.05, went .94c in a week and bounced to 1.35 and I sold at 1.28

PEN was 3.6 same ann at 2.8 my order was filled at 2.8 and it went down to 2.6 before bouncing to 4.6 I sold as soon as pierced bollinger at 4.4

Mak was 60c same ann capitol raising at 43c my order filled today 44c

ccu was 7c same ann cap raising at 6c my order filles 6.1 and sold 7.1 and bought back in on retrace with all of the above, all have had major retraces

Buy the rumour sell the ANN the BIGGEST lesson I have learnt.

So its not just luck anymore. I watch my news ticker all day and wait for good coys to announced a cap rising. thay cant get it from the banks these days so insto sharks buy them at a discount and ALWAYS 99% of the time sell it down to SPP money for jam. this is ALWAYS followed by a wild swing rally to sell into. This is how I trade for now. I have learnt to much to stop

edit forgot mention RIO was $70 when cap announced at around $50 fell like a stone but was never my intention to buy prefer mid caps and pennies but couldn't resist at $49 (went to $46) I sold way to early due the stupid china spy crisis. There have also obviously been many failures but I dont like red thats dead for me so sell it quickly take a hit and move on.

Edited August 21, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Actually, you made me check.

Since 1st November 2008 I have bought 10 lots of shares and 9 have given me profits.

So I was right 90% with my purchases -unfortunately, the ones that I've sold were 100% at the wrong time

I know the feeling, we were more nervous back then and still nervous now. we wont stop being until every front page says all countries out of recession but then there will be nothing to get excited about