The Stock Market

[jcon]

Midas has been trying to "save me" for 6 months now. I have advised him to remove his burning shorts to avoid sizzled sausage, probably to late for that now

Hope he comes back , we were mates for one day when I had a mid dow crisis and turned bear for 24 hours before I snapped out of it. He will be right one day though and I will short the market and maybe we can buy a shed and start stock piling rice for the great depression and the sell it and make some really big bucks

Has it only been 6 months??? You two were going at it like an old couple - it was more exiting than Abrak's charts (no offence Abby), but a bit less exciting than Naam's sausage dogs and their pooping schedules.

"remove his burning shorts to avoid sizzled sausage" haha pretty good imagery we're getting here in this thread, keep it up men (or is it boys haha?)!

[flying]

I saw these today...What do you think on the recent 8/09 third one?

Red, Blue or green? Or none of the above?

Maybe one of the chart minded will jump in.

First one is DOW 1930

Second one DOW 1929 zoom the initial crash

Third DOW 8-28-09

Edited August 27, 2009 by flying

[zorro1]

How would one factor in whats happened stimulus wise into your chart from the depression? . That to me is the unknown and probably why there seems to be a sell off every day yet the dow keeps climbing . It would IMO be disastrous to try and use history as a guide in this new era. If you could have told investors of the depression years that next time we will spend trillions they would have locked you up

[lannarebirth]

I saw these today...What do you think on the recent 8/09 third one?

Red, Blue or green? Or none of the above?

Maybe one of the chart minded will jump in.

First one is DOW 1930

Second one DOW 1929 zoom the initial crash

Third DOW 8-28-09

You know what they say; the long thin candles burn fastest.

[midas]

Midas has been trying to "save me" for 6 months now. I have advised him to remove his burning shorts to avoid sizzled sausage, probably to late for that now

Hope he comes back , we were mates for one day when I had a mid dow crisis and turned bear for 24 hours before I snapped out of it. He will be right one day though and I will short the market and maybe we can buy a shed and start stock piling rice for the great depression and the sell it and make some really big bucks

Zorro you are well beyond being saved - once a spiv always a spiv

But based on the charts posted courtesy of Flying I am going out right now to

start looking for a shed

[zorro1]

Midas has been trying to "save me" for 6 months now. I have advised him to remove his burning shorts to avoid sizzled sausage, probably to late for that now

Hope he comes back , we were mates for one day when I had a mid dow crisis and turned bear for 24 hours before I snapped out of it. He will be right one day though and I will short the market and maybe we can buy a shed and start stock piling rice for the great depression and the sell it and make some really big bucks

Has it only been 6 months??? You two were going at it like an old couple - it was more exiting than Abrak's charts (no offence Abby), but a bit less exciting than Naam's sausage dogs and their pooping schedules.

"remove his burning shorts to avoid sizzled sausage" haha pretty good imagery we're getting here in this thread, keep it up men (or is it boys haha?)!

oh puleeeez , boys is just fine. When I was a boy wanted to be a man but no one told me 80% of men live lives of quite desperation. I will be less desperate when dow hits 10000 and stays there for 3 months before next leg up

[zorro1]

Midas has been trying to "save me" for 6 months now. I have advised him to remove his burning shorts to avoid sizzled sausage, probably to late for that now

Hope he comes back , we were mates for one day when I had a mid dow crisis and turned bear for 24 hours before I snapped out of it. He will be right one day though and I will short the market and maybe we can buy a shed and start stock piling rice for the great depression and the sell it and make some really big bucks

Zorro you are well beyond being saved - once a spiv always a spiv

But based on the charts posted courtesy of Flying I am going out right now to

start looking for a shed

I will buy the rice (just in case)but will continue to dine at the Sheraton seafood buffet 3 times a week for now

[flying]

How would one factor in whats happened stimulus wise into your chart from the depression? . That to me is the unknown and probably why there seems to be a sell off every day yet the dow keeps climbing . It would IMO be disastrous to try and use history as a guide in this new era. If you could have told investors of the depression years that next time we will spend trillions they would have locked you up

Not my charts I just saw them today & was interested in how much they were alike.

Agreed & I too have said before using old indicators may be of no use as this is in some ways something new.

But your right if you could have told investors of the depression years that next time we see a depression coming we will go trillions into debt trying to beat it......I am not sure if they would lock us up or beat us to death

Investment wise I guess a short would be wildly rich if it ends up being red or blue.

Edited August 27, 2009 by flying

[zorro1]

"or beat us to death "

glad they didn't do it then, me and you would probably still be paying it off

[midas]

How would one factor in whats happened stimulus wise into your chart from the depression? . That to me is the unknown and probably why there seems to be a sell off every day yet the dow keeps climbing . It would IMO be disastrous to try and use history as a guide in this new era. If you could have told investors of the depression years that next time we will spend trillions they would have locked you up

Not my charts I just saw them today & was interested in how much they were alike.

Agreed & I too have said before using old indicators may be of no use as this is in some ways something new.

But your right if you could have told investors of the depression years that next time we see a depression coming we will go trillions into debt trying to beat it......I am not sure if they would lock us up or beat us to death

Investment wise I guess a short would be wildly rich if it ends up being red or blue.

Yes the stimulus needs to be factored in ...........and so does the " Plunge Protection Team "

The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is not some urban myth or Oliver Stone-style conspiracy theory.

The truth is it's hidden in plain sight, even though the U.S. Government prefers to be tight lipped about it.

Born out of the 1987 crash, the team is formally known as the Working Group on Financial Markets. It was created by Executive Order 12631, signed on March 18, 1988 by President Reagan.

In fact, as recently as April, a number of observers noticed some unusual patterns in the "program trading" on the New York Stock Exchange, suggesting someone may indeed be working to "prop up" the market with large amounts of buying.

http://www.examiner.com/x-1528-Baltimore-P...he-stock-market

[zorro1]

The plunge protection team ? That would be market manipulation and we all know that doesn't happen

If what you say is true then I certainly wouldn't short them. They have a money printing press. Anyhow the whole deal revolves around sentiment and thats why I try to limit cut n paste anaylist reports. No body cares about rising unemployment or inflation as long as the futures keep rising. Its the snow ball effect and I can tell you 100% everyone I know is asking for a tip in the markets. The biggest contributor in the last few months are the very reluctant bear instos. They hate buying but you cant ignore the charts and you cant ignore your clients. The golden bullish cross was 100% correct and only hung in the balance for 24 hours, A very bullish signal indeed

[Naam]

ARS = arse

ahahahhahaahahahhahaahahahaaha

And yes, good old BRL.... she's been kickin ass takin names lately... You ever wonder if you had gone to Brasil as a single man, Naam (IIRC you were married at the time? (remember Floripa???... now remember it as a single male.... ).... MMMMMMMMMM yummmyyyyyy!!!! oi! oi!!! oiiii!!!!

yes i was and the Mrs made me wear a chastity belt

[midas]

The plunge protection team ? That would be market manipulation and we all know that doesn't happen

If what you say is true then I certainly wouldn't short them. They have a money printing press. Anyhow the whole deal revolves around sentiment and thats why I try to limit cut n paste anaylist reports. No body cares about rising unemployment or inflation as long as the futures keep rising. Its the snow ball effect and I can tell you 100% everyone I know is asking for a tip in the markets. The biggest contributor in the last few months are the very reluctant bear instos. They hate buying but you cant ignore the charts and you cant ignore your clients. The golden bullish cross was 100% correct and only hung in the balance for 24 hours, A very bullish signal indeed

I often wonder if the missing $78 billion TARP money is being used to cover you

You say " No body cares about rising unemployment or inflation as long as the futures keep rising " .........but surely there has to be a day of reckoning zorro ?

And one more thing you have to " factor in " today on top of the stimulus money is effect of the amount of credit sucked out of the system. Isn't this different

scenario a reason to think things will be subdued for a long time...........like Japan ?

" For example, total commercial bank loans have declined over the past 1, 3, 6, and 9 month intervals. Also, recent readings on bank credit plus commercial paper have registered record rates of decline. The FDIC has closed a record 52 banks thus far this year, and numerous other banks are on life support. The “shadow banks” are in even worse shape. Over 300 mortgage entities have failed, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in federal receivership. Foreclosures and delinquencies on mortgages are continuing to rise, indicating that the banks and their non-bank competitors face additional pressures to re-trench, not expand. Thus far in this unusual business cycle, excessive debt and falling asset prices have conspired to render the best efforts of the Fed impotent."

[zorro1]

The plunge protection team ? That would be market manipulation and we all know that doesn't happen

If what you say is true then I certainly wouldn't short them. They have a money printing press. Anyhow the whole deal revolves around sentiment and thats why I try to limit cut n paste anaylist reports. No body cares about rising unemployment or inflation as long as the futures keep rising. Its the snow ball effect and I can tell you 100% everyone I know is asking for a tip in the markets. The biggest contributor in the last few months are the very reluctant bear instos. They hate buying but you cant ignore the charts and you cant ignore your clients. The golden bullish cross was 100% correct and only hung in the balance for 24 hours, A very bullish signal indeed

I often wonder if the missing $78 billion TARP money is being used to cover you

You say " No body cares about rising unemployment or inflation as long as the futures keep rising " .........but surely there has to be a day of reckoning zorro ?

And one more thing you have to " factor in " today on top of the stimulus money is effect of the amount of credit sucked out of the system. Isn't this different

scenario a reason to think things will be subdued for a long time...........like Japan ?

" For example, total commercial bank loans have declined over the past 1, 3, 6, and 9 month intervals. Also, recent readings on bank credit plus commercial paper have registered record rates of decline. The FDIC has closed a record 52 banks thus far this year, and numerous other banks are on life support. The "shadow banks" are in even worse shape. Over 300 mortgage entities have failed, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in federal receivership. Foreclosures and delinquencies on mortgages are continuing to rise, indicating that the banks and their non-bank competitors face additional pressures to re-trench, not expand. Thus far in this unusual business cycle, excessive debt and falling asset prices have conspired to render the best efforts of the Fed impotent."

Agreed with everything you posted Midas, its just that the markets don't agree with you and its a tuff decision, do I continue to follow the big money or do I jump the fence ? errm I will follow the big money for now. Thought tonight was going to be the TURN night with the dow at -80 but seems the "plunge protection team you talk about are saving the day? is it possible we are going to have another green day? looking like it, but still early.

Midas I have a plan. Unlike your self I have done well on the way up and will do well on the way down Your prediction of a mega depression does have some merit (1 in 1,000,000,00) so 0.0001% it may happen and I will hedge with our rice plan as previously posted. theoretically 1 pound of rice = 1 pound of gold.

you cant eat gold so we have to make a plan. Naam would be one to target, its well known most of his teeth are solid gold and he has a hundred pounds of the stuff buried in the back yard. Midas we gonna be filthy rich, bring it on!!

[nakachalet]

a basic audio clip, 3 minutes,

a cyber meeting with a chicago exchange floor trader last night

Edited August 28, 2009 by nakachalet

[midas]

. No body cares about rising unemployment or inflation ( and that should read deflation not inflation ) as long as the futures keep rising.

Some do zorro when they know the true figures

http://www.kxmc.com/News/Nation/427418.asp

[loong]

The main driver of the markets is sentiment.

Fear , optimism, greed etc.

Greed and fear of missing out on a good thing can be the major killer.

You've probably heard this story before about monkeys where the villagers get stoked up into believing that easy money can be had by buying at an inflated price because of the sure thing of being able to sell them at an even more inflated price....

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the

villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs 10. The villagers seeing that

there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started

catching them. The man bought thousands at Rs 10 and as supply started

to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced

that he would now buy at Rs 20. This renewed the efforts of the

villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply

diminished even further and people started going back to their farms.

The offer rate increased to Rs 25 and the supply of monkeys became so

little that it was an effort to even see a monkey let alone catch it.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs 50!

However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy

on behalf of him. In the absence of the man, the assistant told the

villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has

collected. I will sell them to you at Rs 35 and when the man returns

from the city, you can sell it to him for Rs 50 and make a decent profit."

The villagers squeezed up with all their savings to buy the monkeys.

Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere !!

If you know about the South-Sea Bubble, you will know how greed and foolishness can make you a pauper!

Ever read "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay c. 1850 ?

Maybe written over 150 years ago, but still a great read. (Sorry to wander off topic a bit, but it is sort of relevant)

[zorro1]

Midas 12 months I have got it right without you ever once aknowleding it. Kind of breaks my heart... every true proffessional will always aknowlede there opponont if they are well n truly beaten even as in your case well n tuly flogged Think of it as the ozzies losing the ashes and then bleating on about a bad pitch for the next 12 months. Credit where its due Midas its a sign of true character, The sign of a true champion ( thats getting flogged ) In the mean time keep stealing cut n pastes and keep reporting back to me. By the way here is the link to bloomberg futures , gee there green again!

Midas did you know that its phsically impossible for a bee to fly due to body weight and wingspan? no one told the bee, there is a message in their just for you

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

[zorro1]

Looong never underestimate the pwer of sentiment. It leads men to wars that may or may not make sense, it can topple governments often for the wrong reasons, It wil drive markets to unbelivable highs and lows. You are right its all about the fear. Fear it the most powerful emotion in existance and is what drives us daily. The main reason we dont all walk around with a dumb grin all day is due to fear. The fear of " missing out" will overide all common sense however I believe this is a v recovery 100% by the time commonsense prevails more good news will start to filter through, feeding the machine. There will be some bumps along the way and some will get suckered into transferring their wealth to new hands but thats the name of the game

Edited August 28, 2009 by zorro1

[loong]

Looong never underestimate the pwer of sentiment. It leads men to wars that may or may not make sense, it can topple governments often for the wrong reasons, It wil drive markets to unbelivable highs and lows. You are right its all about the fear. Fear it the most powerful emotion in existance and is what drives us daily. The main reason we dont all walk around with a dumb grin all day is due to fear. The fear of " missing out" will overide all common sense however I believe this is a v recovery 100% by the time commonsense prevails more good news will start to filter through, feeding the machine. There will be some bumps along the way and some will get suckered into transferring their wealth to new hands but thats the name of the game

I certainly do not underestimate the power of sentiment.

I'm just not prepared to ride this wave of sentiment as markets go higher.

In every bull or bear market, there are corrections. I will wait for sentiment to wane and hopefully ride some of the wave of sentiment as it turns.

To be honest with you, I don't particularly like bull or bear rallies too much. It doesn't suit my style of investing. I like to see markets move up and down by about 3 to 5 % at a time. I find good opportunities then.

For now, I will try to pick my moments, but for the most part I will stay out.

I've been studying the Forex markets lately and I hope that in a year or 2 I may be able to trade Forex with some degree of competence. The movements certainly seem to suit my style of trading more than the stockmarkets have lately.

[zorro1]

Looong didnt mean to to sound condescending about the power of sentiment. I meant it as a statement to readers not to you but came out wrong

There is money to be made in any market if you research hard enough. Im not talking about going short or long but picking companies who are at rock bottom and have fallen hard during this latest rally. These are the ones that took a big hit going down and then while recovering they get hit with a cap raising usually at 30% of their current sp. why? well we all know that the price is pumped before the sPP that way it makes the spp look attractive so instos jump on board and so do holders. They always get sold down to their SPP placemnt and now their cashed up, at the nottom of their cycle and only have 1 way to go. All of my stock fit this category. I will never forget seeing RIO jump from 55 to 70 $ in 1 hour after the chinaco deal was scrapped and SPP announced at $51 dollars

The rest is history as it was sold down to SPP and beyond as they all do. Followed by bounce big time as they all do. I wouldn't touch currencies dont know enough about them

[loong]

Looong didnt mean to to sound condescending about the power of sentiment. I meant it as a statement to readers not to you but came out wrong .......................................................

.............................................they all do. I wouldn't touch currencies dont know enough about them

I didn't take it as condescending - don't be so sensitive !

I agree with you anyway - sentiment doesn't follow common sense rules, but is very important when making short term investment decisions.

I don't know enough about currencies as yet, but for a chartist it does seem that you can pretty much transfer technical analysis from the stockmarket to Forex. I will continue studying it and hope that I will be able to find opportunities. Time will tell.

[midas]

Looong never underestimate the pwer of sentiment. It leads men to wars that may or may not make sense, it can topple governments often for the wrong reasons, It wil drive markets to unbelivable highs and lows. You are right its all about the fear. Fear it the most powerful emotion in existance and is what drives us daily. The main reason we dont all walk around with a dumb grin all day is due to fear. The fear of " missing out" will overide all common sense however I believe this is a v recovery 100% by the time commonsense prevails more good news will start to filter through, feeding the machine. There will be some bumps along the way and some will get suckered into transferring their wealth to new hands but thats the name of the game

I can understand you are a gambler and you have a greater appetite for risk than me.

I am not in the slighest bit worried about " missing out " -I dont need any more money - i have everything I want and now I would be more

concerned about return of capital rather return on capital. That is why Hong Kongs richest man is also not in the market - risk is to high

But there is no way anyone can seriously expect this to be " V " shaped...not when you dig deep

and find out all the lies that the Obama Regime is spinning

[zorro1]

Looong never underestimate the pwer of sentiment. It leads men to wars that may or may not make sense, it can topple governments often for the wrong reasons, It wil drive markets to unbelivable highs and lows. You are right its all about the fear. Fear it the most powerful emotion in existance and is what drives us daily. The main reason we dont all walk around with a dumb grin all day is due to fear. The fear of " missing out" will overide all common sense however I believe this is a v recovery 100% by the time commonsense prevails more good news will start to filter through, feeding the machine. There will be some bumps along the way and some will get suckered into transferring their wealth to new hands but thats the name of the game

I can understand you are a gambler and you have a greater appetite for risk than me.

I am not in the slighest bit worried about " missing out " -I dont need any more money - i have everything I want and now I would be more

concerned about return of capital rather return on capital. That is why Hong Kongs richest man is also not in the market - risk is to high

But there is no way anyone can seriously expect this to be " V " shaped...not when you dig de

and find out all the lies that the Obama Regime is spinning

Fair enough and no one every asked you put your money in, I certainly never have although im perplexed as to why you don't short the market about now. seems you have no purpose other than express your self quite strongly which is fine. my views are backed with cash, yours are " i can say anything i like" as not get effected either way. Why bother if you don't believe strongly enough to short? By the way how do you think he became hong kongs richest man? apetite for risk is the number one driver for those who got there. My risk appetite was highest back in Novenmber when everyone was screaming chicken little. Took kahunas to start buying big time. Couldn't care less if the markets tank now. my reward already is high enough that modesty prevents me form stating it. However should I go short you would be the first to know and I will throw everything back in again. Have a good weekend

[flying]

My risk appetite was highest back in Novenmber when everyone was screaming chicken little. Took kahunas to start buying big time. Couldn't care less if the markets tank now. my reward already is high enough that modesty prevents me form stating it. However should I go short you would be the first to know and I will throw everything back in again. Have a good weekend

Congrats & yes it did take kahunas? ( Hawaiian Priest ) or Cajons, (balls)

In any case I am happy for you. It was a good call that had risk but now you have the rewards. Be sure to keep them if possible.

In hind sight I remember reporting on the enormous build up in gun & ammo sales. You would have thought I might jump in the market if nothing else but to buy those stocks. They did quite well of course.

Now the markets have done the 50-56% retrace that mimics the charts of the last great depression. It will be interesting to see if history repeats or if this market disregards & continues. Good to hear you will be in on the short if it should head that way. If I were back in the market I would not worry too much about timing that. Because if it in fact does mimic history it will be a looooong fall & plenty of time I would guess to jump in on that scenario.

[zorro1]

My risk appetite was highest back in Novenmber when everyone was screaming chicken little. Took kahunas to start buying big time. Couldn't care less if the markets tank now. my reward already is high enough that modesty prevents me form stating it. However should I go short you would be the first to know and I will throw everything back in again. Have a good weekend

Congrats & yes it did take kahunas? ( Hawaiian Priest ) or Cajons, (balls)

In any case I am happy for you. It was a good call that had risk but now you have the rewards. Be sure to keep them if possible.

In hind sight I remember reporting on the enormous build up in gun & ammo sales. You would have thought I might jump in the market if nothing else but to buy those stocks. They did quite well of course.

Now the markets have done the 50-56% retrace that mimics the charts of the last great depression. It will be interesting to see if history repeats or if this market disregards & continues. Good to hear you will be in on the short if it should head that way. If I were back in the market I would not worry too much about timing that. Because if it in fact does mimic history it will be a looooong fall & plenty of time I would guess to jump in on that scenario.

yep I remember the guns and ammo sales myself but funny how you don't sometimes buy stock that you just dont like even though they are a good buy, emotion still plays a part in selecting I guess. also HATE shorting in principal so really hope its a V and not a W recovery. Everyone is gobsmacked at the strength of it and funny to watch the bears instos mumble their way through difficult questions like "where have you parked your clients money last 6 months"

cracks me up when they squirm, lets not forget relentless shorting drove many coys to the wall and I believe shorting contributed greatly to the last crash hence the worldwide ban on shorts months back although lifted now.

[Naam]

My risk appetite was highest back in Novenmber when everyone was screaming chicken little. Took kahunas to start buying big time. Couldn't care less if the markets tank now. my reward already is high enough that modesty prevents me form stating it. However should I go short you would be the first to know and I will throw everything back in again. Have a good weekend

Congrats & yes it did take kahunas? ( Hawaiian Priest ) or Cajons, (balls)

¡ putas y maricones ! ¿ why not use the correct spanish word "cojones" ?

[flying]

¡ putas y maricones ! ¿ why not use the correct spanish word "cojones" ?

My bad But you know I normally just say nuts or balls

[flying]

yep I remember the guns and ammo sales myself but funny how you don't sometimes buy stock that you just dont like even though they are a good buy, emotion still plays a part in selecting I guess. also HATE shorting in principal so really hope its a V and not a W recovery. Everyone is gobsmacked at the strength of it and funny to watch the bears instos mumble their way through difficult questions like "where have you parked your clients money last 6 months"

cracks me up when they squirm, lets not forget relentless shorting drove many coys to the wall and I believe shorting contributed greatly to the last crash hence the worldwide ban on shorts months back although lifted now.

Heheh yes I know what you mean shorting= wrong way betting.

When I use to frequent Vegas a lot many times I would go with the house on the crap table & bet no pass. Well of course everyone at the table hates a wrong way bet. They feel like your cheering them to lose.

Then of course they all yell 7 or eleven on the roll out & what can a wrong way better do? Nothing just keep quiet & hope. I mean if you yell crap come on baby crap... Someone might kill you. You know their all drunk to begin with. You want to yell crap come on to some 300 pound cowboy throwing the dice?

As for recovery shape?? I always laugh when I hear someone say hmmm maybe a L recovery?

[badge]

Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseC...4471&EDATE=

But these insiders prove not to be much better at market timing than anyone else; why wasnt there selling in '07?

Short interest decreasing is a valid concern however. Just how much faith do you put in their figures...