The Stock Market

[flying]

The alternative, total global financial meltdown, which we were very close to, would have been much more devastating and wealth destroying than what we are dealing with now, and will be dealing with for decades to come. Actually, I do care about the future, such as confronting man made global climate change and nuclear proliferation. It is ignorant and definitely homophobic to make assumptions about people based on their sexuality. BTW, shall I remind you that childless people pay for the education of a country's youth, and are mostly happy to do so.

Actually that is a nice exaggeration & one that none can prove. Yet many like to constantly chant it in the hopes that it somehow makes this look better. Same as the current administration constantly saying what a bad deal they inherited & yet their whole campaign was based on how they would make it better...

( BTW I voted against the old so yes I voted in this mess too ...my bad)

As for homophobic...nice try your the only one here who may be phobic as I am not. I do agree it is ignorant to try & use it as an excuse as you are doing. I only loosely quoted what you said in the global warming thread referring to how ultimately it did not matter to you. As not having any heirs made it a non issue once your gone. Same as the bail out repayment will be.... for you & lack of yours.

I never said all do not share in current education costs etc as it was not part of the subject being discussed,,,,,but as usual you are twisting the subject which is....FUTURE COSTS caused by this bail out ...you do understand that is what the bail out is yes?

edit PS: you will get this thread closed like other by straying so far off topic & turning this into another political flag waving or sexual preference debate as you tend to do.

Edited August 7, 2009 by flying

[Jingthing]

I only loosely quoted what you said in the global warming thread referring to how ultimately it did not matter to you.

LOOSE WITH THE TRUTH.

You misrepresent my position in that thread completely and take one flip comment which was used to confront others OUT OF CONTEXT. I am annoyed, no point in further discussion with you on this matter. To clarify, I care deeply about the future of our strange species and I don't give a hoot if my personal gene pool is not part of it.

Edited August 7, 2009 by Jingthing

[flying]

LOOSE WITH THE TRUTH.

You misrepresent my position in that thread completely and take one flip comment which was used to confront others OUT OF CONTEXT. I am annoyed, no point in further discussion with you on this matter. To clarify, I care deeply about the future of our strange species and I don't give a hoot if my personal gene pool is not part of it.

Why is it when ever you quote someone you remove their name? Their is a word for that. As for loose with the truth.........The post is there for anyone without a life to go look at

Yes let us not discuss this non for you issue any further as it is not on topic to the original thread. Lastly you need not worry about gene pools as I am 99% sure you will live to see the result of this bail out.

Take Care

Sawadee Krup

Edited August 7, 2009 by flying

[loong]

The labour force in the US dropped by 422,000, so less people looking for work. The unemployment rate is not really lower, is it?

There seems to be mixed reaction to the latest figures. Stock markets jumped and the US$ strengthened.

Increasing risk appetite can lead to rising markets and lower $. At the moment both are moving in the same direction, although the Stock markets are more sideways. Does this mean that the $ will give back some of its gains or will the markets move lower?

Interested to hear people's opinions.

[zorro1]

The labour force in the US dropped by 422,000, so less people looking for work. The unemployment rate is not really lower, is it?

There seems to be mixed reaction to the latest figures. Stock markets jumped and the US$ strengthened.

Increasing risk appetite can lead to rising markets and lower $. At the moment both are moving in the same direction, although the Stock markets are more sideways. Does this mean that the $ will give back some of its gains or will the markets move lower?

Interested to hear people's opinions.

I wouldnt read to much into it short term. Would have made more sense if oil rose and dollar fell however a few times lately we have all moving north at the same time including gold (from memory) I would revisit around 10,000 on the dow where things should settle and perhaps a very long period of consolidation before it decides which way to go and we should have a lot more significant data by then. Go with the flow until there is an obvious change I say. Use stops, thats what they are there for .

Edited August 7, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Here is a summary from BBC re last nights results

The figures were better than feared, but still depressing for those affected The US economy lost 247,000 jobs in July, far fewer than analysts had expected, official figures show.

With fewer workers being laid off, the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, down from 9.5% in the previous month, the first drop since April 2008.

The unexpected drop is likely to fuel hopes that an economic recovery is gaining ground.

US President Barack Obama said the jobless numbers showed that "the worst [of the recession] may be behind us".

"[but] we have a lot further to go. As far as I'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery until we stop losing jobs," he added, echoing comments made last week.

Since the recession began in December 2007, about 6.7 million jobs have been lost, the Department of Labour said.

CASE STUDY Caroline Hepker, BBC business correspondent, New York As the US recession enters its 20th month, the grand old library in New York is offering help for the growing numbers of Americans out of work. Debra Edwards says the facilities at the library have been helpful in her job search, but she has not yet found the office job she wants.

Rodneyse Bichotte describes herself as a "go-getter". She was laid off from banking giant JP Morgan Chase and has been out of work for a year:

"The toughest part is competing with everybody else. When I look into different industries, like media or a non-profit, they look at my resume and see financial services. I have to point out how [my skills] are transferable."

Ms Bichotte is worried about the summer lull when employers go on holiday but she is confident of finding work.

But most economists, and even US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, do not expect unemployment to peak until the second half of 2010.

No swift recovery for US jobs market The president also stressed that economic meltdown had been avoided.

"We are losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when I took office. We have pulled the financial system back from the brink.

"While we have rescued our economy from catastrophe, we have also begun to build a new foundation for growth."

Analysts had expected non-farm payrolls to drop by 320,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6%.

Revisions

Official figures showed job losses for July were spread across all sectors, though just 52,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing, the first time since September that manufacturing losses were fewer than 100,000.

Jobs continued to be added in the education and health services, with 17,000 more posts for the sector during the month.

The construction industry saw 76,000 fewer jobs for July, though the drop was less than predicted.

Analysts attributed the lower rate of contraction to the government's stimulus package, which helped boost infrastructure schemes.

Revised data also showed fewer jobs were lost in June and May than had been thought. Employers cut 303,000 positions in May, less than the 322,000 previously estimated. And in June 443,000 jobs were cut, revised from an earlier figure of 467,000.

"Because layoffs in auto manufacturing already had been so large, fewer workers than usual were laid off for seasonal shutdowns in July," Labour Commissioner Keith Hall said.

The average working week rose to 33.1 hours in July from June's level of 33 hours. In the manufacturing sector, the average working week climbed to 39.8 hours from 39.5 hours in the month before.

Average hourly earnings rose to $18.56 in July, up from $18.53 in June.

[sokal]

Time to talk about the markets again since we have "blood on the streets"

Who is ready for the plunge? As of Friday we have completed the 2nd biggest rally in U.S stock history. My position has been strong buy since November 2008 and have a very substantial holding

Here are a few charts on gold, silver, etc and more importantly where the DOW is heading. The charts arnt mine but this guy knows his stuff

http://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dcfxhq6g_89c9d2q3f7

All the major US markets have not moved. These are only nominal gains that are only realized because the dollar has hit YTD lows. The DOW priced in gold has not moved, it is still going down. The only real gains have been in foreign markets.

[flying]

Revisions

Revised data also showed fewer jobs were lost in June and May than had been thought. Employers cut 303,000 positions in May, less than the 322,000 previously estimated. And in June 443,000 jobs were cut, revised from an earlier figure of 467,000.

You know I am happy that folks who are quick can make a few bucks on this rally.

But things like these rallies based on the fact that the UE number was better<sic> than expected is so silly. As silly as the whole market is these days as they try to price in what they see as a future recovery complete. They already assume the old days will be re-visited.

They lost 247000 jobs last month & they say the number is better?

They say in the above quoted revisions that they lost only 443,000 jobs not 467,00 so that is Much better?

Do folks know how our government comes up with unemployment rates?

I bet most think they count how many get unemployment benefits right?

But that would leave out the masses of business men who own their business or the self employed contractors etc. But forget it as they do not use Unemployment to gauge the rate of unemployment anyway. That would be too telling.

No our government in their infinite wisdom & capabilities instead poll 60,000 households. Yes you read that correctly SIXTY THOUSAND households is all.

That is how they get the Government Unemployment Rate. They take that percentage & adjust it to the population number.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.pdf

But forget that as we know from our other informative survey called the Consumer Price Index aka: CPI or CP Lie that the sampling is always screwed with. In the CPI they do cute things like substitute hamburger for Steaks to fool with the numbers.

But again ALL THAT ASIDE .....They are saying they lost 247,000 jobs last month!

And the UE Rate FELL from 9.5 to 9.4% Only in America

Mobama say's.... "[but] we have a lot further to go. As far as I'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery until we stop losing jobs,"

While I agree a stop to the loss of jobs would be nice..... a recovery is actually when those folks start to get jobs not just stop losing them.

In May 2008 We had half the population of all of Thailand on Food Stamps here...Imagine half of Thailand's 70 million population on food stamps in the greatest nation on earth? I can only guess what it is now in August

This bailing put of the folks who got us here is self serving at best. These same folks that were crying end of the world back in October now are all receiving bonuses. While we rejoice at only these many job losses as opposed to greater numbers. Something is really out of order here

[bjohn34]

The bailouts and stimulus packages, anything the banks needed to be saved. The thing that was heading us towards total MELTDOWN was the BANKING and CREDIT LIQUIDITY crisis. He also picked that genius Geithner even though he is not popular.

The biggest mistake O has made so far? The stimulus packages were not BIG ENOUGH.

Austerity? Well what choice is there? The bubble has burst.

I am neither a Bush fan nor an Obama opponent , but as I recall, the TARP program to rescue the financial institutions was passed and begun last September under Bush/Paulson/Bernanke. It has only been continued under Obama/Geitner/Bernanke. The taxpayer has bailed out the failing businesses so they can now continue the same extreme practices that caused their problems before. We are allowing those who are "too big to fail" to get bigger.

From what we read only 10% of the "stimulus" money has gotten into the pipelines so it is a little early to judge the success or failure but I don't expect much from it. Over half of the "stimulus" money was to provide support for unfunded Medicare obligations with no stimulus benefit.

The logic of the "cash for clunkers" program escapes me. The taxpayer is borrowing from China to give to people who have a paid for vehicle so they will take on new debt at a time of economic crisis when people should be paying off debt, not getting more. The first data shows that Michigan had the highest number of CFC tradeins. Michigan also has the highest unemployment rate in the country.

I actively invest in markets around the world and in the past 2-3 months have done well. However, I think the "recovery" is a house of cards that will crash , so be prepared. It may be next month or next year, but the worst is yet to come. Government borrowing and spending cannot sustain an economy.

[Abrak]

"Because layoffs in auto manufacturing already had been so large, fewer workers than usual were laid off for seasonal shutdowns in July," Labour Commissioner Keith Hall said.

This is one of the key points with the numbers. The numbers are seasonally adjusted and in July there is usually a large temporary loss of jobs in the auto industry. The numbers have been adjusted down to take into account this seasonal factor but as there were so many job losses that have already been made in the sector, the seasonal lay offs were not as high in previous years and the seasonal adjustment has boosted the employment figures.

The unemployment numbers also exclude 'marginally attached' and 'discourage' workers. A 'discouraged' worker is someone who is unemployed but isnt looking for a job because he doesnt believe there is one. Marginally attached means you want a job, have actively looked for one but have now given up.

Finally there is another group excluded - those who would like a full time job but are taking a temporary job because there is nothing else. Add everything together and 'unemployment' is 16.8% up from 10.4% a year ago.

[cobra]

Like Chapelle says, "I"m rich, Biatch",

Buying oppurtunity of a life time back in Mar 09,

Bought everthing I could when the DJI was at 6400,

it"s at 9300 today, do the math.

I"m rich Biatch ! (again)

[zorro1]

The bailouts and stimulus packages, anything the banks needed to be saved. The thing that was heading us towards total MELTDOWN was the BANKING and CREDIT LIQUIDITY crisis. He also picked that genius Geithner even though he is not popular.

The biggest mistake O has made so far? The stimulus packages were not BIG ENOUGH.

Austerity? Well what choice is there? The bubble has burst.

I am neither a Bush fan nor an Obama opponent , but as I recall, the TARP program to rescue the financial institutions was passed and begun last September under Bush/Paulson/Bernanke. It has only been continued under Obama/Geitner/Bernanke. The taxpayer has bailed out the failing businesses so they can now continue the same extreme practices that caused their problems before. We are allowing those who are "too big to fail" to get bigger.

From what we read only 10% of the "stimulus" money has gotten into the pipelines so it is a little early to judge the success or failure but I don't expect much from it. Over half of the "stimulus" money was to provide support for unfunded Medicare obligations with no stimulus benefit.

The logic of the "cash for clunkers" program escapes me. The taxpayer is borrowing from China to give to people who have a paid for vehicle so they will take on new debt at a time of economic crisis when people should be paying off debt, not getting more. The first data shows that Michigan had the highest number of CFC tradeins. Michigan also has the highest unemployment rate in the country.

I actively invest in markets around the world and in the past 2-3 months have done well. However, I think the "recovery" is a house of cards that will crash , so be prepared. It may be next month or next year, but the worst is yet to come. Government borrowing and spending cannot sustain an economy.

The cash for clunkers is mainly incentive now so as the USA can reduce its importing of oil which it does by around 70% by providing stimulas which by the way is only a few billion bucks, chump change compared to other stimulus. I can see its long term benefits and its directly measurable , that is they know where every cent is going. (for a change) Yes there is credit involved naturally but the terms and conditions attached to the loans are dramatically differnet to what they used to be. You have to have a rating now so it will be a haealthy credit. I worked in finance in a toyota dealership for 16 months 15 years ago. back then we used to lend bankrupts money as long as they paid 28% interest. I got paid on Interest and I will never forget telling a bankrupt who was trying to screw me down on the interstest this... "Sir why dont you just Take the finanace as it is, your not going to pay any of it anyway and at least I make some commisiion" I could never figure out why they lent monet to bankrupts, oh well we all found out the consequnces last yaer!

Anyone with a buy button would have made money last 6 months, the real test is as you mention is about come. However if sentiment returns ,look out above. I Know the numbers re unemployment are laughably small in their difference however we aren't looking for a V recovery but a very stretched out U type of recovery. Theoretically if only a few hundred jobs a month better every single month then we are bottoming and being forward thinking that's all the markets need to know. There has to be a time in every great cycle when you look back and say Gee If only I bought BHP, RIO, LEI at those prices. That time IMO is slipping away, they all well above their bottoms from 6 months ago

Edited August 8, 2009 by zorro1

[bjohn34]

The bailouts and stimulus packages, anything the banks needed to be saved. The thing that was heading us towards total MELTDOWN was the BANKING and CREDIT LIQUIDITY crisis. He also picked that genius Geithner even though he is not popular.

The biggest mistake O has made so far? The stimulus packages were not BIG ENOUGH.

Austerity? Well what choice is there? The bubble has burst.

I am neither a Bush fan nor an Obama opponent , but as I recall, the TARP program to rescue the financial institutions was passed and begun last September under Bush/Paulson/Bernanke. It has only been continued under Obama/Geitner/Bernanke. The taxpayer has bailed out the failing businesses so they can now continue the same extreme practices that caused their problems before. We are allowing those who are "too big to fail" to get bigger.

From what we read only 10% of the "stimulus" money has gotten into the pipelines so it is a little early to judge the success or failure but I don't expect much from it. Over half of the "stimulus" money was to provide support for unfunded Medicare obligations with no stimulus benefit.

The logic of the "cash for clunkers" program escapes me. The taxpayer is borrowing from China to give to people who have a paid for vehicle so they will take on new debt at a time of economic crisis when people should be paying off debt, not getting more. The first data shows that Michigan had the highest number of CFC tradeins. Michigan also has the highest unemployment rate in the country.

I actively invest in markets around the world and in the past 2-3 months have done well. However, I think the "recovery" is a house of cards that will crash , so be prepared. It may be next month or next year, but the worst is yet to come. Government borrowing and spending cannot sustain an economy.

The cash for clunkers is mainly incentive now so as the USA can reduce its importing of oil which it does by around 70% by providing stimulas which by the way is only a few billion bucks, chump change compared to other stimulus. I can see its long term benefits and its directly measurable , that is they know where every cent is going. (for a change) Yes there is credit involved naturally but the terms and conditions attached to the loans are dramatically differnet to what they used to be. You have to have a rating now so it will be a haealthy credit. I worked in finance in a toyota dealership for 16 months 15 years ago. back then we used to lend bankrupts money as long as they paid 28% interest. I got paid on Interest and I will never forget telling a bankrupt who was trying to screw me down on the interstest this... "Sir why dont you just Take the finanace as it is, your not going to pay any of it anyway and at least I make some commisiion" I could never figure out why they lent monet to bankrupts, oh well we all found out the consequnces last yaer!

Anyone with a buy button would have made money last 6 months, the real test is as you mention is about come. However if sentiment returns ,look out above. I Know the numbers re unemployment are laughably small in their difference however we aren't looking for a V recovery but a very stretched out U type of recovery. Theoretically if only a few hundred jobs a month better every single month then we are bottoming and being forward thinking that's all the markets need to know. There has to be a time in every great cycle when you look back and say Gee If only I bought BHP, RIO, LEI at those prices. That time IMO is slipping away, they all well above their bottoms from 6 months ago

The traded in clunkers would have been off the road in a few years anyway. All this did was subsidize current auto sales at the sacrifice of future sales in the name of energy savings. The real beneficiaries are the financial institutions making the loans on these new cars. Deposits of these govt provided funds improves their balance sheets and will increase the money supply by almost 300 billion dollars. Maybe the quality of the loans has improved, maybe not. On a $20000 car, the govt is providing a 20% down payment and I suspect almost anyone can qualify with 20%.

If it is such a good thing, why limit it at 3 billion dollars? Let's give money to everybody who trades in a less efficient vehicle for a more efficient one. Same thing for refrigerators, air conditioners.

Enough of my rant. I actually have more important things to do than bitch about stuff I can do nothing about.

[zorro1]

The bailouts and stimulus packages, anything the banks needed to be saved. The thing that was heading us towards total MELTDOWN was the BANKING and CREDIT LIQUIDITY crisis. He also picked that genius Geithner even though he is not popular.

The biggest mistake O has made so far? The stimulus packages were not BIG ENOUGH.

Austerity? Well what choice is there? The bubble has burst.

I am neither a Bush fan nor an Obama opponent , but as I recall, the TARP program to rescue the financial institutions was passed and begun last September under Bush/Paulson/Bernanke. It has only been continued under Obama/Geitner/Bernanke. The taxpayer has bailed out the failing businesses so they can now continue the same extreme practices that caused their problems before. We are allowing those who are "too big to fail" to get bigger.

From what we read only 10% of the "stimulus" money has gotten into the pipelines so it is a little early to judge the success or failure but I don't expect much from it. Over half of the "stimulus" money was to provide support for unfunded Medicare obligations with no stimulus benefit.

The logic of the "cash for clunkers" program escapes me. The taxpayer is borrowing from China to give to people who have a paid for vehicle so they will take on new debt at a time of economic crisis when people should be paying off debt, not getting more. The first data shows that Michigan had the highest number of CFC tradeins. Michigan also has the highest unemployment rate in the country.

I actively invest in markets around the world and in the past 2-3 months have done well. However, I think the "recovery" is a house of cards that will crash , so be prepared. It may be next month or next year, but the worst is yet to come. Government borrowing and spending cannot sustain an economy.

The cash for clunkers is mainly incentive now so as the USA can reduce its importing of oil which it does by around 70% by providing stimulas which by the way is only a few billion bucks, chump change compared to other stimulus. I can see its long term benefits and its directly measurable , that is they know where every cent is going. (for a change) Yes there is credit involved naturally but the terms and conditions attached to the loans are dramatically differnet to what they used to be. You have to have a rating now so it will be a haealthy credit. I worked in finance in a toyota dealership for 16 months 15 years ago. back then we used to lend bankrupts money as long as they paid 28% interest. I got paid on Interest and I will never forget telling a bankrupt who was trying to screw me down on the interstest this... "Sir why dont you just Take the finanace as it is, your not going to pay any of it anyway and at least I make some commisiion" I could never figure out why they lent monet to bankrupts, oh well we all found out the consequnces last yaer!

Anyone with a buy button would have made money last 6 months, the real test is as you mention is about come. However if sentiment returns ,look out above. I Know the numbers re unemployment are laughably small in their difference however we aren't looking for a V recovery but a very stretched out U type of recovery. Theoretically if only a few hundred jobs a month better every single month then we are bottoming and being forward thinking that's all the markets need to know. There has to be a time in every great cycle when you look back and say Gee If only I bought BHP, RIO, LEI at those prices. That time IMO is slipping away, they all well above their bottoms from 6 months ago

Nope not anyone can qualify with 20%. In Australia you cant and never could even with 20& down if you had an outstanding default of lets say $200 to teltstra. This would need to payed and then in some situations you had to wait a month or so before re applying hence our minimum sub prime exposure. One can only hope the US has learned its lesson and are following the same path. If not than your right they could just walk away however Im pretty sure cash for Klunkers requires a further down payment by applicant but to be honest I could be bothered finding out.

Edited August 8, 2009 by zorro1

[hhgz]

"There was once a very successful investor called 'Peter Lynch' a value investor, maybe the Warren Buffett of his time."

Is Peter Lynch dead? As far as I know, Peter is still a very successful investor. I believe he retired from Fidelity years ago. Peter's claim to fame was to drive the Fidelity Magellan Fund from obscurity, to the biggest mutual fund in the world. For better or for worse, he's not Warren Buffett.

On the other hand, Citigroup stock nearly quadrupled over the past 4 months. Woohoo!

[zorro1]

The bailouts and stimulus packages, anything the banks needed to be saved. The thing that was heading us towards total MELTDOWN was the BANKING and CREDIT LIQUIDITY crisis. He also picked that genius Geithner even though he is not popular.

The biggest mistake O has made so far? The stimulus packages were not BIG ENOUGH.

Austerity? Well what choice is there? The bubble has burst.

I am neither a Bush fan nor an Obama opponent , but as I recall, the TARP program to rescue the financial institutions was passed and begun last September under Bush/Paulson/Bernanke. It has only been continued under Obama/Geitner/Bernanke. The taxpayer has bailed out the failing businesses so they can now continue the same extreme practices that caused their problems before. We are allowing those who are "too big to fail" to get bigger.

From what we read only 10% of the "stimulus" money has gotten into the pipelines so it is a little early to judge the success or failure but I don't expect much from it. Over half of the "stimulus" money was to provide support for unfunded Medicare obligations with no stimulus benefit.

The logic of the "cash for clunkers" program escapes me. The taxpayer is borrowing from China to give to people who have a paid for vehicle so they will take on new debt at a time of economic crisis when people should be paying off debt, not getting more. The first data shows that Michigan had the highest number of CFC tradeins. Michigan also has the highest unemployment rate in the country.

I actively invest in markets around the world and in the past 2-3 months have done well. However, I think the "recovery" is a house of cards that will crash , so be prepared. It may be next month or next year, but the worst is yet to come. Government borrowing and spending cannot sustain an economy.

The cash for clunkers is mainly incentive now so as the USA can reduce its importing of oil which it does by around 70% by providing stimulas which by the way is only a few billion bucks, chump change compared to other stimulus. I can see its long term benefits and its directly measurable , that is they know where every cent is going. (for a change) Yes there is credit involved naturally but the terms and conditions attached to the loans are dramatically differnet to what they used to be. You have to have a rating now so it will be a haealthy credit. I worked in finance in a toyota dealership for 16 months 15 years ago. back then we used to lend bankrupts money as long as they paid 28% interest. I got paid on Interest and I will never forget telling a bankrupt who was trying to screw me down on the interstest this... "Sir why dont you just Take the finanace as it is, your not going to pay any of it anyway and at least I make some commisiion" I could never figure out why they lent monet to bankrupts, oh well we all found out the consequnces last yaer!

Anyone with a buy button would have made money last 6 months, the real test is as you mention is about come. However if sentiment returns ,look out above. I Know the numbers re unemployment are laughably small in their difference however we aren't looking for a V recovery but a very stretched out U type of recovery. Theoretically if only a few hundred jobs a month better every single month then we are bottoming and being forward thinking that's all the markets need to know. There has to be a time in every great cycle when you look back and say Gee If only I bought BHP, RIO, LEI at those prices. That time IMO is slipping away, they all well above their bottoms from 6 months ago

The traded in clunkers would have been off the road in a few years anyway. All this did was subsidize current auto sales at the sacrifice of future sales in the name of energy savings. The real beneficiaries are the financial institutions making the loans on these new cars. Deposits of these govt provided funds improves their balance sheets and will increase the money supply by almost 300 billion dollars. Maybe the quality of the loans has improved, maybe not. On a $20000 car, the govt is providing a 20% down payment and I suspect almost anyone can qualify with 20%.

If it is such a good thing, why limit it at 3 billion dollars? Let's give money to everybody who trades in a less efficient vehicle for a more efficient one. Same thing for refrigerators, air conditioners.

Enough of my rant. I actually have more important things to do than bitch about stuff I can do nothing about.

Nope not anyone can qualify with 20%. In Australia you cant and never could even with 20& down if you had an outstanding default of lets say $200 to teltstra. This would need to payed and then in some situations you had to wait a month or so before re applying hence our minimum sub prime exposure. One can only hope the US has learned its lesson and are following the same path. If not than your right they could just walk away however Im pretty sure cash for Klunkers requires a further down payment by applicant but to be honest I could be bothered finding out

[Abrak]

.....

Edited August 8, 2009 by Abrak

[Abrak]

"There was once a very successful investor called 'Peter Lynch' a value investor, maybe the Warren Buffett of his time."

Is Peter Lynch dead? As far as I know, Peter is still a very successful investor. I believe he retired from Fidelity years ago. Peter's claim to fame was to drive the Fidelity Magellan Fund from obscurity, to the biggest mutual fund in the world. For better or for worse, he's not Warren Buffett.

On the other hand, Citigroup stock nearly quadrupled over the past 4 months. Woohoo!

Ok I admit that the Warren Buffett comparison may be a bit of a stretch. But what I find interesting is that he is largely forgotten. Look up the top 100 investors in the last 20 years and you wont see his name. His returns certainly compare to Warren Buffett. His sucess with Magellan was tied to his continuous out performance. Outperforming when you have a US$1m is not particularly difficult but it is certainly hard when you have US$20bn or so. Admittedly, if I am remember rightly, he considered that Freddie Mac and Mae had an overwhelmingly success business model (or was that Warren Buffett).

[Honolulu]

To answer the OP's question- Should you invest NOW.

I would say it mostly depends on how long you are willing to wait for a return.

All of my current positions are with "10 year money"( money I don't expect a gain on, other than Dividends, for 10 years out). I expect the market to move mostly sideways ( up, then back down again) for as long as it takes for the global debt situation to stabilize, (2 to 3 years?) which is made more difficult everyday, by World Govt's constant interference in the name of "bailouts". The U.S. infusion of money in it's economy is creating a giant"head fake", distorting what really would be happening in reality. Remember that it is all "dept money" and will end up making things much worse, because it is not creating any new value.

It seems to me that the world economy is all about' demand ". In the end, I think demand will increase if not for any,other reason than so much has been lost by so many, recently, and they must begin working even harder than before, to get it back.

I would not be in the market with any 3 year money, unless it is in commodities or Gold. For what it's worth.

[thetravellingcat]

something else to add to the rich tapestry that is stock market trading:

It is called high-frequency trading — and it is suddenly one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets.

Powerful computers, some housed right next to the machines that drive marketplaces like the New York Stock Exchange, enable high-frequency traders to transmit millions of orders at lightning speed and, their detractors contend, reap billions at everyone else’s expense.

These systems are so fast they can outsmart or outrun other investors, humans and computers alike. And after growing in the shadows for years, they are generating lots of talk.

[link]

[Abrak]

Well here is my theory.

The really really good news is that most investors tend to buy at the top and sell near the bottom. Hence if you have an investment strategy that you stick to whether it be momentum, charts, fundamentals or whatever as long as you stick to it you will make money.

I trade on fundamentals mostly because the market is so inefficient at pricing. I dont think I get more trades right than any other strategy but I can have conviction. If I find a stock trading at half book, a third of its next cash position and 3x earnings, I can put in as much money as I like and I am 90% certain to make money. So you can make big bets with an almost certain guarantee of return. If I punt gold my chances arent much greater than 50:50 (actually they are because if I get it wrong I forget, while if I get it right I remember.)

Finding grossly undervalued stocks is hard work and doesnt happen that often but placing say 1/2 million bet and getting it right 3 or 4 times makes up for a lot of bad investments based on the quality of the finance director's legs.

[nakachalet]

something else to add to the rich tapestry that is stock market trading:

It is called high-frequency trading — and it is suddenly one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets.

Powerful computers, some housed right next to the machines that drive marketplaces like the New York Stock Exchange, enable high-frequency traders to transmit millions of orders at lightning speed and, their detractors contend, reap billions at everyone else’s expense.

These systems are so fast they can outsmart or outrun other investors, humans and computers alike. And after growing in the shadows for years, they are generating lots of talk.

[link]

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high-frequency trading

have no fear my trading fellows! the above terminology would be really frightening for those who are unfamiliar with trading. but for those seasoned traders, particularly those seasoned day traders, it is a non-event and non-news worthy really.

as the term indicated--high frequency trading, which meant exactly as the article described--repeating orders of huge volume like 5,000, 10,000, 20,000 or more orders of one particular stock at a time which the market/deal makers in the pit would expeditiously accommodate with finesse and a big smile--milk money as commissions already in the bank.... yes, the very first few orders guessing the right direction of the market would reap profits after resale--brokers, traders and pit bosses have been practising this very approach since day one.

why would a seat in there cost millions usd ? see my point.... but a few traders also offered their seats up for sale, if they became too greedy or consistently wrong in guessing the market momentums and temperaments ....

for small traders like most of us, who trade in 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 or more lots at a time, we have been at a disadvantage for a long time.... but we learn, we make necessary adjustment and we survive in spite of the naturally but unfairly imposed trading handicaps.... lol

ask any seasoned traders, they all would agree that if you can afford to pay your fair share of tuitions meaning taking losses and withstanding the draw-downs during your first 2 years without going crazy or being kicked out of your house by your significant others or your mortgagor.... lol, you would probably be entitled to a reasonably good life.... but in terms of reality, how many are willing to sacrifice so much for so distant uncertain rewards....?

These systems are so fast they can outsmart or outrun other investors

trading in milliseconds is lightning speed indeed but it surely is not equivalent with smartness or intelligence. many seasoned traders will also tell you--the quicker you click, the bitterer you bitch....... lol

what is frightening to me is.... why it took so long for some agency to disclose this huge inequitability among many others.... lol

[nakachalet]

in response to jingthing's posted reference:

Epicenters

The twin centers of underwater world are the "sand states" and the rust belt. The worst hit metro areas are Merced and El Centro, Calif., where 85% of mortgage borrowers are underwater.

Others hard hit areas include: Modesto, Calif. (84%), Las Vegas (81%) and Stockton, Calif. (81%).

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jingthing, thx a bunch for your post in reference to the above article

remembering: around 1975 depressive years, layoffs were abundant and rampant, every news station was crying recession, recession and severe recession.... sure enough foreclosures were like san diego wild fire, they were almost every where.... a foreclosure officer came to visit and asked if we were interested to take over the 3-story white brick home around the corner, 7 bedrooms, 4 fireplaces, 8 baths.... the depress price was 2.75 mil (usd).... the following monday, my thai better half and i went to the first interstate bank and made the cash offer of 2 mil which the manager indignantly refused, but a week later he came back with a counter offer of 80% and not a penny less....

perhaps, it is about time to return to the good old usa again for some delicious cherry pickings.... lol

my thai wife said TUM NAR BON LUNG KON meaning--farming on someone's back or more aptly, profiting from neighbor's miseries.... i did not remember she said that in the 80.... lol

[teletiger]

Well thank you for that clarification about HFTs Nakachalet.

I was a bit disappointed about the lack of mention of "churning" and NYSE liquidity payments. Also your reluctance to mention volume manipulation. Still, we live and learn, right?

Try Zero hedge. Read back the last months contributions. Learn about how you're taking it up the arse.

You knew that already right?

Regards.

[sokal]

Like Chapelle says, "I"m rich, Biatch",

Buying oppurtunity of a life time back in Mar 09,

Bought everthing I could when the DJI was at 6400,

it"s at 9300 today, do the math.

I"m rich Biatch ! (again)

Good call but thats not a good long term buy if you are too stupid to jump out soon.

[zorro1]

Futures indicating may smash 9500 on the DOW tonight No way that the trillions on the side will continue to ignore the market. Lot of people waiting for

"earth shattering news" Buy the time the news arrives we will be at 15000 on the DOW. Im loaded however never long once there is around 10-20% in the kitty Im out and looking for the next little struggling gem.

[loong]

Germany and France today announced an increase in GDP, supposedly their recessions have ended!

Dax not broken highs on this news yet and Euro is weakening against GBP.

Why haven't the Bulls jumped on this news?

Maybe the Dow will break 9,500 today, the Bulls are still winning the tug of war with the bears, but for how much longer?

[zorro1]

The French and German economies both grew 0.3% in the second quarter of 2009, but the eurozone stays in recession.

Full contents can find the following address:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8198766.stm

[lannarebirth]

Germany and France today announced an increase in GDP, supposedly their recessions have ended!

Dax not broken highs on this news yet and Euro is weakening against GBP.

Why haven't the Bulls jumped on this news?

Maybe the Dow will break 9,500 today, the Bulls are still winning the tug of war with the bears, but for how much longer?

5-15 hours methinks.

[Abrak]

Germany and France today announced an increase in GDP, supposedly their recessions have ended!

Dax not broken highs on this news yet and Euro is weakening against GBP.

Why haven't the Bulls jumped on this news?

Maybe the Dow will break 9,500 today, the Bulls are still winning the tug of war with the bears, but for how much longer?

Three to six months ago I argued that 'green shoots' were bound to appear because the numbers were so bad they couldnt get much worse.

Now that say the German economy has shown 0.29% growth QOQ it is seen as 'growing' despite the fact it is down over 5% YOY and no higher on an inflation adjusted figure than 5 years ago. Economic numbers simply cant go down forever. At some point things get so bad that 'green shoots' are bound to appear and, it seems, many people are happy to call it 'growth'.

http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms...enderPrint.psml