The Stock Market

[badge]

Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/23/yes-folks-hindenburg-omen-tripped-again/

[midas]

Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/23/yes-folks-hindenburg-omen-tripped-again/

Then comes the Parvis Omen ? up up up !

[badge]

Sentiment Survey Results as of 8/25/2010 The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.

Last Week's Results

Sentiment Survey

Results Week ending 8/25/2010 Bullish 20.7%

down 9.4 Neutral 29.8%

up 2.4Bearish 49.5%

up 7

Long-Term Average: Bullish: 39%

Neutral: 31%

Bearish: 30%

Last time a bearish reading was so high was July 8th.

[midas]

It is not only retail investors that are taking their money

out of the stockmarket

Soros Bailing Out of U.S. Stock Market

Billionaire trader and political manipulator,George Soros, is clearly not optimistic. The latest SEC filings are out on the Soros hedge fund, Soros Fund Management.

Between the end of March and the end of June, Soros lowered his stock investments from $8.8 billion to $5.1 billion in the fund, Soros Fund Management.

He sold most of his positions (over 95%) in Wal-Mart, J.P. Morgan Chase and Pfizer.

http://www.infowars.com/soros-bailing-out-of-u-s-stock-market/

[Abrak]

Badge,

Great site.

It makes some awesomely good calls particularly at major turning points. March '09 was an absolute classic.

[zorro1]

It is not only retail investors that are taking their money

out of the stockmarket

Soros Bailing Out of U.S. Stock Market

Billionaire trader and political manipulator,George Soros, is clearly not optimistic. The latest SEC filings are out on the Soros hedge fund, Soros Fund Management.

Between the end of March and the end of June, Soros lowered his stock investments from $8.8 billion to $5.1 billion in the fund, Soros Fund Management.

He sold most of his positions (over 95%) in Wal-Mart, J.P. Morgan Chase and Pfizer.

http://www.infowars.com/soros-bailing-out-of-u-s-stock-market/

Its called taking profits. You wont here of what he bought till markets get toppy again

[BlackJack]

It is not only retail investors that are taking their money

out of the stockmarket

Soros Bailing Out of U.S. Stock Market

Billionaire trader and political manipulator,George Soros, is clearly not optimistic. The latest SEC filings are out on the Soros hedge fund, Soros Fund Management.

Between the end of March and the end of June, Soros lowered his stock investments from $8.8 billion to $5.1 billion in the fund, Soros Fund Management.

He sold most of his positions (over 95%) in Wal-Mart, J.P. Morgan Chase and Pfizer.

http://www.infowars.com/soros-bailing-out-of-u-s-stock-market/

Its called taking profits. You wont here of what he bought till markets get toppy again

Soros bought into mining stocks in Australia and Africa and this appears to be where the smart money is heading

the following is long but I think worth it as the herd is about to get slaughtered

Decoupling Now, Currency Crisis Soon

NIA believes that the decoupling we have been predicting of precious metals from the Dow Jones has now officially taken place. A year ago we would consistently see precious metals and stock market prices rise and fall in parallel. We have now seen the Dow Jones decline by 6.1% from its high on August 9th, along with both gold and silver rising by about 3.3% during this same time period.

The Dow Jones to gold ratio is now down to 8.1, near its low for 2010 of 7.9. The gold to silver ratio still remains at a historically high level of 66. However, silver was up today by $0.65 to $19.03 per ounce, its biggest one day gain since early June. We expect silver to significantly outperform gold in the months to come.

One year ago, almost all mainstream economists on CNBC were calling for either a "U" or a "V" shaped economic recovery. NIA said that prices were rising only due to inflation and there would be no economic recovery. NIA went into detail about how destructive government programs like the homebuyers tax credit were helping to artificially boost economic numbers, but as soon as these programs were over, economic activity would collapse to new lows. NIA was right. Now that the government has ended its homebuyers tax credit, we just saw sales of previously owned homes decline in July by 25.5% from one year ago, to their lowest level in a decade. We also saw new home sales in July based on the signing of new contracts decline by 32.4% from one year ago.

The government will report their second estimate of second quarter GDP on Friday and we will likely see a revision from growth of 2.4% down to growth of less than 2%. Keep in mind, the White House budget is projecting a GDP growth rate of 5.58% over the next five years (along with permanently low interest rates) in order to get the budget deficit down to $752 billion in 2015. With a sharp contraction in GDP likely coming in the third quarter, NIA continues to believe that the Federal Reserve will unleash the mother of all quantitative easing this fall, along with a huge push by Congress for a new stimulus plan.

U.S. mutual funds currently have about $10.5 trillion in assets, with $2.5 trillion being in bonds and $4.6 trillion being in equities. Although the amount of money invested in equities is still far greater than bonds, asset inflows into bonds have outpaced equities for 30 consecutive months. During these 30 months, $559 billion were invested into bond funds while $209.4 billion were pulled out of equity funds. It is a real shame that most retiring baby boomers who are looking for safety, are actually investing their savings into the riskiest assets of all.

The U.S. savings rate climbed in June to 6.4%, its highest level in one year. It is unfortunate that Americans who are doing the right thing by increasing their savings, are simply giving their savings away for free to the government which is spending it recklessly with no way of paying it back. When this bond bubble begins to burst, prices of commodities will explode to the upside like nothing you have ever seen before.

NIA believes that there is a risk of the bond bubble beginning to burst as early as this fall. Smart money is now loading up on commodities. In the week ended August 17th, net long holdings in futures for 20 commodities rose 2.6% to 1.18 million contracts, with the biggest rises coming in agricultural commodities like wheat and corn. Commodity assets under management gained by about $8 billion in July to over $300 billion.

The World Gold Council just announced today that gold demand surged in the second quarter of 2010 to 1,050.3 metric tons, up 36% from one year ago. This rise in demand came mostly from rising investment demand, with gold demand for backing ETFs climbing 414% and retail investment demand rising by 29%.

Because the rest of the world still likes to follow and emulate the U.S., it might be Americans who initiate the upcoming stampede out of bonds, U.S. dollars and other dollar-denominated assets, and into precious metals. For the time being, the average American is still more likely to be a seller of gold. Recycling of gold increased 35% last quarter to 496 metric tons. Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

[Naam]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

[lannarebirth]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

[midas]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

i have been thinking this since the beginning of this thread !

[zorro1]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

i have been thinking this since the beginning of this thread !

Just bought this for 10 bht! its also a rice chart

Now wheat. who would of thought that?

[midas]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

i have been thinking this since the beginning of this thread !

Just bought this for 10 bht! its also a rice chart

Now wheat. who would of thought that?

yes well i have never forgotten how you left me high and dry with my silo

when you backed out of our agreement

[zorro1]

I was "this" close but the plunge protection team arrived

I have a feeling they are lurking around the 10,000 mark. The dow lept out of 10,000 like a dog shot in the arse the other day..

[badge]

Badge,

Great site.

It makes some awesomely good calls particularly at major turning points. March '09 was an absolute classic.

Assuming you're refering to AAII, I agree, its a lovely indicator. I glance every thursday, but dont collate or chart the data. If you have it downloaded and graphed Id love to see it, overlaid the SPX would be even better.

[badge]

S&P 1500 Short Interest: Unchanged Since April

Wednesday, August 25, 2010 at 05:57PM With the S&P 500 down more than 13% since its peak in April, one would think that short interest would have surged as investors pile on to the negative sentiment in the markets. A look at recent short interest figures, however, shows that just as there is little conviction in the bull camp, bears are just as apathetic. Since the market peaked back in April, short interest as a percentage of float for the S&P 1500 has barely budged.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/8/25/sp-1500-short-interest-unchanged-since-april.html

Unsure why they would cover the S&P 1500, perhaps its a different story on the 500

[midas]

4) We are just now beginning another cycle up - perhaps we should call this cycle "The Midas touch Phenomenon".

Let's just let the Market talk - and confirm - or deny - we are at the beginning of a substantial upmovement.

Parvis calls a rally, Globex hits new lows. Still got the one and only Original, 'Parivs touch Phenomenon', yay

Well i think the 'Parivs touch Phenomenon' is quite outstanding

" We Are Returning To 450 On The S&P

Investors cannot move for the weight of broker research comparing the current conjuncture in the US with Japan a decade ago. While bond markets at least, move to discount deflation, most sell-side analysts still say the current situation is unlike Japan a decade ago. They are right. Things now in the US are much, much worse than Japan a decade ago.

Equity investors are in for a rude shock. The global economy is sliding back into recession and they are still not even aware that these events will trigger another leg down in valuations, the third major bear market since the equity valuation bubble burst.

This lack of awareness reminds me of reports this week that a 35 year old Polish man hadn?t noticed for five years that he had a bullet lodged in his head. Like the equity market in 2000, the Polish man had been partying too hard to notice that he had been shot. The BBC report the police as saying "He told us he remembered having a sore head, but that he wasn't really one for going to the doctor."

As the equity bloodbath of the last decade enters its final, even bloodier phase, investors continued optimism also reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail - link. Despite being grievously wounded by King Arthur, the Black Knight makes light of his injuries which he dismisses as a flesh wound. The vast bulk of the investment industry fails to appreciate that we are locked in a structural bear market and about to enter Act III."

SocGen's Albert Edwards

[BlackJack]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

welcome back

get stuck in the transporter somewhere?

[BlackJack]

Once Americans become educated about how gold isn't expensive and is still trading for only 1/2 of its all time high adjusted to the CPI and 1/4 of its all time high adjusted to the real rate of price inflation, and that by recycling gold they are actually trading real money for fiat paper money, this recycling supply will diminish and the world will face a major gold shortage. The world already has a major silver shortage that will become apparent to all very soon.

amen!

Well, I hardly ever trade commodities but I took a punt in Rice starting last month. Its long term chart looks horrible:

But that's not the point I'd like to convey. What I'd like everyone to know is that once the global citizenry becomes educated about how Rice isn't expensive at all and is still trading at only 1/2 of its all time high and its possible the world could suffer a Rice shortage at any time, well God knows how high it could go. Now everyone get busy building those silos as the true value of Rice should become apparent to all very soon.

i stopped eating rice and thats probably the main reason for the drop

i went on a low GL diet and knocked out all grains so wheat should drop to as i dont eat pasta or bread etc

also potatoes

i will tell you when i start eating them again and the price should rise up

if i was a betting man i would have gone for wheat

stay turned

[Abrak]

if i was a betting man i would have gone for wheat

stay turned

The problem with wheat is that they have just deciphered the wheat genome which is about to be made public allowing the introduction of high yielding disease free super wheat. In 5 years time global demand for wheat will be able to be supplied by two acres of farm land in Milton Keynes.

[Abrak]

I was watching CNBC last night (well the Pandas were asleep as usual.) This is day traders reality TV channel warped from the bull market days of Nasdaq.

It seems to me that US equities have one big plus and one big problem.

The really big plus is that everyone hates them, distrusts them, is bored of them, has been selling them, intends to sell more of them if they find anymore in the bottom of the cupboard somewhere. These are the very foundations and building blocks for the beginning few years of a bull market. Think of the 20 year bond market bull run. Much of at least the first 5 years were driven by get out of bonds, buy equities, sentiment. I even like the fact that half the people distruct equities because they have been flatlining for 10 years, while the other half distrust them because they actually went up over the past year.

However, the big problem with US equities is that there is at least an element in the market that is totally delusional about the underlying fundamentals. I mean there they are on CNBC, three guys (all wearing ties) and all with straight faces, discussing market strategy....

"stocks are dramatically cheap, you're talking five or six decades cheap in terms of their value,"

....says someone claiming to be the CIO of US Trust, BOA's private wealth fund.

Upflashes 'stocks at cheapest levels of last five to six decades' on the bottom of the screen. Now this, of course, is total and utter <deleted> and can only be determined (without the intake of large amounts of illegal drugs) by dreaming up fairey tale fundamentals. Which he later goes on to do....

"Well if you take a conservative US$84 EPS for the S&P next year....blah, blah, blah"

Well yes if you believe that record earnings/share out of the S&P is a year away then things will look cheap. But that is not what happens after a financial meltdown. The S&P is currently doing about US$11.5 EPS a quarter, the 10 year MVA is around US$52 (for each year.)

There are loads of ways of valuing equities, DCF, EVA, PEs etc and they all point to the fact that US equities are not particularly expensive but are generally expensive against the UK, Europe, Thailand and in line with say Japan.

Bear markets start with a belief that prices will rapidly return to their previous highs. Structural bear markets are based on the fundamentals returning to their previous highs. And the end is when nobody believes in either.

[lannarebirth]

I was watching CNBC last night (well the Pandas were asleep as usual.) This is day traders reality TV channel warped from the bull market days of Nasdaq.

It seems to me that US equities have one big plus and one big problem.

The really big plus is that everyone hates them, distrusts them, is bored of them, has been selling them, intends to sell more of them if they find anymore in the bottom of the cupboard somewhere. These are the very foundations and building blocks for the beginning few years of a bull market. Think of the 20 year bond market bull run. Much of at least the first 5 years were driven by get out of bonds, buy equities, sentiment. I even like the fact that half the people distruct equities because they have been flatlining for 10 years, while the other half distrust them because they actually went up over the past year.

However, the big problem with US equities is that there is at least an element in the market that is totally delusional about the underlying fundamentals. I mean there they are on CNBC, three guys (all wearing ties) and all with straight faces, discussing market strategy....

"stocks are dramatically cheap, you're talking five or six decades cheap in terms of their value,"

....says someone claiming to be the CIO of US Trust, BOA's private wealth fund.

Upflashes 'stocks at cheapest levels of last five to six decades' on the bottom of the screen. Now this, of course, is total and utter <deleted> and can only be determined (without the intake of large amounts of illegal drugs) by dreaming up fairey tale fundamentals. Which he later goes on to do....

"Well if you take a conservative US$84 EPS for the S&P next year....blah, blah, blah"

Well yes if you believe that record earnings/share out of the S&P is a year away then things will look cheap. But that is not what happens after a financial meltdown. The S&P is currently doing about US$11.5 EPS a quarter, the 10 year MVA is around US$52 (for each year.)

There are loads of ways of valuing equities, DCF, EVA, PEs etc and they all point to the fact that US equities are not particularly expensive but are generally expensive against the UK, Europe, Thailand and in line with say Japan.

Bear markets start with a belief that prices will rapidly return to their previous highs. Structural bear markets are based on the fundamentals returning to their previous highs. And the end is when nobody believes in either.

Very good and accurate post of where we find ourselves now Abrak. In my view that is rangebound though emerging markets may bubble.

[midas]

Retail investors resist siren call of equities

Money pulled from shares is being pumped into bonds

" Beyond the two big equity bear markets of the past decade, it’s no surprise that Main Street has soured on equities thanks to the Madoff scandal and the bail-out of Wall Street banks, followed by high bonuses paid out to bankers last year, all crowned by May’s “flash crash”.

While retail investors ran from equities and piled record amounts of their cash into money market funds in 2008, what really hurts the Street is their failure to forget and come back.

The common punchline on Wall Street is that once the markets have rallied for a while, you wait for the “dumb money” to rush in for a slice of the action. Then the “smart money” sells out and sit backs as retail investors get hosed when the market falters.

Except this year, the dumb money has resolutely stayed away and kept buying bonds and foreign equities, leaving the professionals twisting in the wind. So far in 2010, $50.2bn has been pulled from US equity funds on top of the $74.6bn in outflows during 2009, while $152bn has flooded into US bond funds, according to EPFR Global.

Such flows aptly illustrate Wall Street’s sour mood. Talk to people in prime brokerage at big banks and they mutter darkly that many hedge funds are struggling to make money and risk big redemptions later this year. The recent decision by Stanley Druckenmiller to wind down his Duquesne hedge fund is the type of shot across the bow that people in the industry could well look back upon as a foreboding omen. "

http://www.ft.com/home/asia

Edited August 29, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

Very good and accurate post of where we find ourselves now Abrak. In my view that is rangebound though emerging markets may bubble.

I would agree that equities in general are range bound.

I am not so sure about emerging markets partly because I am not quite sure what is an emerging market. It certainly isnt another debt driven growth bubble be it Greece Spain or wherever. I still think there is room within current valuations that economies that can grow within their means be it Thailand or Germany have potential upside.

I see the bubbles within government bonds and maybe PMs (although I have a sneaking suspicion that metals will go far higher.)

[Abrak]

Very good and accurate post of where we find ourselves now Abrak. In my view that is rangebound though emerging markets may bubble.

I would agree that equities in general are range bound.

I am not so sure about emerging markets partly because I am not quite sure what is an emerging market. It certainly isnt another debt driven growth bubble be it Greece Spain or wherever. I still think there is room within current valuations that economies that can grow within their means be it Thailand or Germany have potential upside.

I see the bubbles within government bonds and maybe PMs (although I have a sneaking suspicion that metals will go far higher.)

Actually that last post is a load of <deleted> - I have little idea whether PMs or bonds are in a bubble.

In terms of equities though I am not convinced that emerging markets are in a bubble. There is considerable 'mist' with emerging market valuations such as say Vietnam 3 years ago on 68x or Thailand on 5.5x eighteen months ago. There is little between 'emerging' and 'failed' as an economy in peoples 'eyes'.

The ultimate economic nightmare is Japan.

I totally would support the idea that Thailand is beginning to be seen as a growth economy when it has stopped growing but I am not convinced that valuations reflect a bubble. In terms of sentiment then maybe emerging markets are seen as a bubble but they are not really in terms of valuation especially if you rate self-sustaining growth highly.

[cloudhopper]

This could be of interest to you market players-

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-now-proudly-exporting-hft-market-death-and-destruction-asia

[midas]

This could be of interest to you market players-

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-america-now-proudly-exporting-hft-market-death-and-destruction-asia

I know it should be of interest ............but it won't because :-

1. zerohedge isn't considered credible by many posters on this thread

2. people dont seem to worry about the effects of HFT even on the USA market

[badge]

FTSE 5140 was'nt really seized upon, putting 5080 in the frame, and Id guess near the previously mentioned 5010/15 or perhaps a tad above around 5025/30 thereafter.

[...]

on balance Ive given the recent down trend the benefit of the doubt for now.

SPX traded through 1052.5 thus voiding the signal, and shows 1040ish and Id guess 1030 thereafter as possible buy signals

FTSE reversed from a low of 5071, some 9 points beyond my 5080 buy signal, and has since advanced 5.5%/295 points thus far.

SPX reversed from a low of 1039, 1 point beyond my 1040 buy signal, and has since advanced 4%/40 points thus far.

Focus is now on sell signals.

SPX 1081(y'days close price) currently shows, with 1095ish or 1105ish showing likely thereafter perhaps.

FTSE shows 5392 in the immediate, with 5450, 5460ish and 5520ish probably becoming signals therafter perhaps.

As an aside, experience tells me whenever a series of accurate signals is generated, a surprise reversal is usually afoot. Currently, with 8 consecutive reversals identified(11 is the record), a 'surprise' is due.

[Abrak]

Focus is now on sell signals.

SPX 1081(y'days close price) currently shows, with 1095ish or 1105ish showing likely thereafter perhaps.

FTSE shows 5392 in the immediate, with 5450, 5460ish and 5520ish probably becoming signals therafter perhaps.

As an aside, experience tells me whenever a series of accurate signals is generated, a surprise reversal is usually afoot. Currently, with 8 consecutive reversals identified(11 is the record), a 'surprise' is due.

Seems though you are of the general view the same as Lanna's which is that the market appears fairly range bound - say +/- 10% at the moment.

What I find is rather extraordinary is the massive divergence of views on the market at the moment.

On the one hand you get the Armageddon Omen theorists who believe the market might halve in the next 8 months (usually macro guys who see the macro fundamentals deteriorating.) On the other hand you get a 'big move upwards' theorists usually 'micro' who see very good value based earnings numbers against bonds which appear about as good as at any time in the past 10 years.

The problem - especially for the crashers - is that crashes dont usually happen when pitched with a huge amount of 'advertising'. They tend to result from Dow 36,000 rather than Dow 3,600 forecasts.

Also the fundamentals and valuations are so essentially 'boring'. The macro data might point to things slowing even a 'double dip' but it is not going to be exciting. That is because the 'boom' parts of the economy - car sales, new house building, commercial real estate remain depressed. At the micro level even once you adjust your numbers to reflect economic reality it doesnt really indicate the market is expensive or say the S&P should fall much below 900.

Bear markets are often simply incredibly boring for long periods of time. I am of the view that the US economy is looking increasingly like a '1% economy' (quite catchy that) whereby everything is basically 1% - growth, inflation, interest rates etc.

[midas]

Could investors fleeing stocks become a lost generation?

Another member of the shaken-investor class is Bill Woodward of Pittsburgh. He was once an avid stock investor. A decade ago, he used to troll stock chat rooms on the Internet in search of hot stocks. Now, his portfolio is down to three holdings: a dividend-paying oil tanker company, a fund that bets against the real estate market and a penny stock he calls his "lottery ticket."

He couldn't care less about the nearly 5,000 other stocks that trade on major U.S. exchanges. "I have no interest in coming back," says Woodward, 60, who works at a local employment center that helps people find jobs. His distrust of market regulators and his belief that they don't protect individual investors are the top reasons for his anti-stock stance.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/stocks/2010-09-02-lostgeneration02_CV_N.htm

[Abrak]

He was once an avid stock investor. A decade ago, he used to troll stock chat rooms on the Internet in search of hot stocks.

I hate bull markets. And this just about sums exactly why. I love the way they call him the lost generation rather than the innately unemployable. Mind you I do think it is a laugh that the 'avid stock investor' is described as a 'troll' in 'stock chat rooms' in search of 'hot stocks'.