A New Global Great Depression Has Been Avoided ...

[Jingthing]

Yes, los Americanos, a very colorful people we are ...

[Jingthing]

I think the majority of these people might disagree with you Jing

Another confused poster.

I never said unemployment is not going to get worse or that housing prices may not drop further. I am saying that a GREAT DEPRESSION, the entire global meltdown of our banking and finance system has been averted. (Remember the credit crisis, the LIQUIDITY crisis, THAT IS OVER.) I believe that and so does Alan Greenspan and every mainstream economist you can point to. Also, it did not get stopped by randomness, it got stopped by BOLD DECISIVE ACTION mostly by the leadership of BARACK OBAMA. Case closed.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Jingthing

[losworld]

This sounds like a lot of pumping to try and get people to spend. If you look at it there is actually a depression in the U.S. but there no longer really exists a term for depression as the term recession replaced it.

Check out www.patrick.net a lot of good information if often a bit negative. However, I wouldn't rely on the mainstream media to get the truth.

This may be a bottom but it is a long way back to the top we once had.

Also if you are relying on Greenspan than you are in deep trouble. Greenspan created this mess than denied any wrongdoing. The guy is basically an egotistical ignoramus.

Hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

Edited August 3, 2009 by losworld

[Jingthing]

Again, confusion. I said GREAT depression. Not severe recession or mini depression. GREAT DEPRESSION as in 25 to 50 percent unemployment, etc. How soon people forget how rapidly the international financial system was melting down.

This sounds like a lot of pumping to try and get people to spend.

That wouldn't be such a bad thing. Greenspan is not in government anymore, he gives his opinions as an informed, objective expert.

BTW, I agree, and Greenspan agrees there are still plenty of negative economic fundamentals in the current economy. However, dodging the bullet of a global GREAT DEPRESSION isn't chopped liver. It is in fact the best news yet in this new century, and politics being what it is when people in power are taking ACTION, credit is due where credit is due. In other words, two terms for Barack Obama practically guaranteed now.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Jingthing

[cdnvic]

This is by far the most... pathetic ... funny thing I have ever read on TV

You really need to visit more often.

PS: also who rates their own thread? 5 stars after one post?...hmmm Funny & Modest too

Yeah, that is kinda lame but.... (see above)

[thaijasmine]

I think the majority of these people might disagree with you Jing

Another confused poster.

I never said unemployment is not going to get worse or that housing prices may not drop further. I am saying that a GREAT DEPRESSION, the entire global meltdown of our banking and finance system has been averted. (Remember the credit crisis, the LIQUIDITY crisis, THAT IS OVER.) I believe that and so does Alan Greenspan and every mainstream economist you can point to. Also, it did not get stopped by randomness, it got stopped by BOLD DECISIVE ACTION mostly by the leadership of BARACK OBAMA. Case closed.

No its not closed just because no one else agrees with you

Now then is Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the IMF sufficiently " mainstream " for you ?

Because he wrote recently :-

" The conventional wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump “cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.” This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression—because the world is now so much more interconnected and because the banking sector is now so big. We face a synchronized downturn in almost all countries, a weakening of confidence among individuals and firms, and major problems for government finances ( are you from California by any chance? ). If our leadership wakes up to the potential consequences, we may yet see dramatic action on the banking system and a breaking of the old elite( lets start with Goldman Sachs ). Let us hope it is not then too late ".

[vedantafx]

Again, confusion. I said GREAT depression. Not severe recession or mini depression. GREAT DEPRESSION as in 25 to 50 percent unemployment, etc. How soon people forget how rapidly the international financial system was melting down.

This sounds like a lot of pumping to try and get people to spend.

That wouldn't be such a bad thing. Greenspan is not in government anymore, he gives his opinions as an informed, objective expert.

BTW, I agree, and Greenspan agrees there are still plenty of negative economic fundamentals in the current economy. However, dodging the bullet of a global GREAT DEPRESSION isn't chopped liver. It is in fact the best news yet in this new century, and politics being what it is when people in power are taking ACTION, credit is due where credit is due. In other words, two terms for Barack Obama practically guaranteed now.

Can't be serious. Nothing has been fixed the problems will only get worse further down the road.

Essential watching. Marc Faber, good analysis of where we are going....Forward to 6m.50secs if you can't be bothered watching it all, and you have one mainstream economist who is on Bloomberg or CNBC every other week saying the worst is yet to come. What makes Faber different? Well, he as a fantastic track record, and he predicted this crisis coming long before it happened. I tend to give more weight to the people who saw it coming than the people who didn't, aka Greenspan, geithner,Bernanke, etc etc.

Bernanke on the record over the last few years...How can anyone give credence to this fool...

Someone mentioned Schiff...contrast Bernanke with Sxchiff in same time period

Doug Casey seems to think Obama is doing a stellar job...haha

[teletiger]

Banks swamped by a wave of personal debt

The banks are braced for big losses on mortgages and personal loans

“Based on estimates provided by the International Monetary Fund, lending to British consumers could cost the financial system more than £100 billion in bad debts before the recession is over.”

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6736009.ece

Banks will have to cut credit lines by $2.1 Trillion in 2010.....Meridith Whitney.

Obama warns recession is far from over

President Barack Obama has given warning that the US economy will not recover for "many more months" and said the recession was worse than anyone had thought.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-from-over.html

Shoes still to drop:

Credit card defaults:

“For some banks, losses on credit cards have been severe for months. Credit card loans originated by Washington Mutual, the troubled bank bought by JPMorgan Chase last September, are defaulting at a staggering rate of 24 per cent. “

“The real unknown, however, is to what extent a recession already on a par with the 1930s will be turned into something even worse by record levels of consumer debt “

“Estimates from the International Monetary Fund say that of US consumer debt totalling $1,914bn (£1,166bn, €1,346bn), 14 per cent will turn bad.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30eee15c-7a07-11...?nclick_check=1

Mortgages:

“The latest US mortgage delinquency figures are horrendous, with more than 6% of prime mortgages in arrears – more than double the long-term norm. A quarter of sub-prime loans are delinquent.”

And although one in 6 homeowners is underwater…

“The peak of foreclosures has yet to come,’ Harvard historian Niall Ferguson adds. ‘They will go from 40 percent of all home sales to literally 100 percent by the end of the year.’”

http://dailyreckoning.com/tales-from-a-bankrupt-economy/

Unemployment

Falling tax revenues

Rising Social security commitments

States defaulting

Aig bust?

Social unrest to come?

Etc, etc....

Now lets look at the sh...stuff you're so readily ingesting.

Media madness.

“On Wednesday, more happy media talk as the front pages of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and USA Today proclaimed to its readers that the three-year housing horror show appeared to be over.”

"Media madness" is the reaction of one top Morgan Stanley trader, who contends the economic facts of life are suddenly being replaced with economic fiction. “

“we've experienced the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, with the national debt, the budget deficit, bankruptcies and unemployment going through the roof. “

“Biderman notes "the bulls are putting lipstick on the housing pig and it won't work." The reason, he says: the bad news on the housing front outweighs the good. For starters, he points out that as of the end of May, 11.3% of 4.7 million of total outstanding mortgages were delinquent, up from 8.5% or 3.5 million at the end of January. Likewise, he calls attention to some 5 million home owners who are no longer making their mortgage payments. As for the Case-Shiller news, he notes that on a seasonally adjusted basis, using month over month comparisons, home prices actually declined in June. He also argues that the housing bulls are ignoring a potential tidal wave of failures in option ARM and Alt-A mortgages. “

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-dorfman/...a_b_248579.html

Are the US Government statistics to be trusted.

“In Q2, Denninger points out, the government's spending grew by 10.9%, contributing to a positive movement of 3.3% in the second quarter's reported GDP. Remove that 3.3% from the equation, and the actual Q2 data for the consumer economy witnessed an overall contraction of -5.2%, a figure substantially worse that the official government Q2 report. “ (-1%)

“the Commerce Department also admitted it had gotten its evaluation of the recession's affect on the U.S. economy's GDP from its onset in Q4 of 2007 through the latter part of 2008 stupendously wrong, now conceding that the actual contraction was -1.9 percent instead of -0.8%, as previously reported.”

“Should money that Washington borrows from its China credit card really be considered part of the GDP`s "growth," as is now the case? “

“There is only one flaw with Karl Denninger`s analysis; it is based on logic, a principal that seems irrelevant to any measurement of the economy derived from official government sources. “

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filg...t_b_249311.html

A few msm's do carry real stories, buried inside.

Yesterday The Times had an article about insolvent US banks. This morning It's been pulled.

Listen to Paulson and Bernanke's quotes on the economy, over the last 2 years. Astonishing. 'And all reported as fact in the next days press.

The good news. The markets are up.

The end of the Worlds not coming, but real suffering, for millions of people in the West, is.

You want us to congratulate the prats who fell asleep at the wheel. Right.

Regards.

[churchill]

Recession over! Worst of the New York dating scene returns

Posted by Tracy Alloway on Aug 03 09:07.

Kill us.

Fashion meets Finance - the New York-based social service that aims to match attractive but relatively poor women with relatively unattractive but rich finance professionals correct gender imbalances between New York bar scenes, is still alive and is about to hold another of their sleazy soirées.

Their reasoning? According to the invite of their Aug. 6th event:

THE RECESSION IS OFFICIALLY OVER! It’s not even just Goldman reporting profits.

2008 was a confusing time, but we are here to announce the balance is restoring itself to the ecosystem of the New York dating community. We fear that news of shrinking bonuses, banks closing and the Dow plummeting confused the gorgeous women of the city who understood that their shelf life is quick and fleeting like a senator’s South American love affair. The uncertainty caused panic which caused irrational decisions - there’s going to be a two year blip in the system where a hot fashion girl might commit to a pharmaceutical salesman (this is so much worse than the expected guy selling mortgages at JP Morgan Chase convincing a fashion girl he’s actually in finance).

Fashion Meets Finance has returned to let the women of fashion know that the recession is officially over. It might be a year before bonuses start inflating themselves again, but it will happen. Invest in the future; feel confident in your destiny. Hold on. It will only be a couple more years until you can quit your job and become a tennis mom.

Puke. Puke. Puke. On so many levels.

However — times have perhaps changed for this group.

FMF’s RSVP list is, as it always has been, available online and it seems that some of the self-proclaimed finance men — no doubt inspired by the recession referred to in the invite — have been taking a bit of creative license with their salaries and/or positions. So far, so predictable.

According to DealBreaker, however, the deception extends not just to the purported-men in finance but also to the women supposedly in fashion, with an American Apparel buyer allegedly using the Facebook photo of a fashion publicist as her own. Scandale.

So now, instead of matching attractive but poor women with unattractive but rich men, which was bad enough to begin with, the event is matching women who have to lie about their looks with men who have to lie about their salaries.

Sounds like a successful evening. Enjoy!

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/03...rns/?source=rss

[MJP]

I understand Jing's premise that QE moves have avoided another GREAT depression, but can't help feel that this is a 'Zen master and the little boy' type story.

"We'll see", said the Zen Master.

Personally, I doubt it.

[thaijasmine]

Shoes still to drop:

Mortgages:

"The latest US mortgage delinquency figures are horrendous, with more than 6% of prime mortgages in arrears – more than double the long-term norm. A quarter of sub-prime loans are delinquent."

And although one in 6 homeowners is underwater…

"The peak of foreclosures has yet to come,' Harvard historian Niall Ferguson adds. 'They will go from 40 percent of all home sales to literally 100 percent by the end of the year.'"

Not just homes......... there is another shoe to drop yet as well.

" Commercial Real Estate: Inside The Crisis "

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/22/c...n_n_243000.html

[skipvice]

be afaid very afraid my friends

[samran]

Who deserves the credit?

Any policy maker who took up the mantra: "go hard, go early" and learnt from the mistakes of the recession of the early 1990's.

A bit Australian-centric, but here you go:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/a...2i.html?page=-1

...and Australia seems to have escaped entering a recession, at least in the technical sense.

[MJP]

It's more than a real estate bubble or CDS caranage. It's structural. Fact is the West, in particular the US and UK have been printing worthless bits of paper and exchanging them for real good and services. The rest of the wrold will shortly no longer accept this fraud.

Add to that the the real elephant being unfunded pensions liabilities both public and private in a greying population.

I like this chart. Trying to maintian this through QE is a nonsense.

I suspect Schiff is right, delaying this with money printing will just make matters worse.

[khunjake]

Things could have been far worse. The banks stayed open, depositors were able to withdraw funds and so far, no soup lines from what can see. However, there is a very steep price to be paid for propping up the system like this and that will NOT go unnoticed...

[Chunkton]

Appreciation, yes it could have been worse up to now, but I would say congatulations are a little premature.

Based on what? Name me one mainstream economist who says now we are headed towards another great depression? They are saying the exact opposite. That the threat is OVER.

This is really really big news. Really really GOOD news.

This threat didn't get blocked by the USA government doing NOTHING as the radical right wingers wanted. That would have led to DISASTER. The truth is the government should have DONE MORE, but at least the actions they did take were big enough and bold enough to prevent a depression.

Why are people so niggardly with offering praise and compliments WHEN THEY ARE DUE and so quick to snipe for any old trivial reason?

You are actually serious? The mainstream economists you quote are the same geniuses that didn't even see the crash coming in the first place.

Then quick get all your money into equities (especially banks and retail) before it is too late, add some long term treasuries for good measure and go long on the strengthening US dollar.

[AlexLah]

No soup kitchens, true. There is food pantrys now, you get soup, just have to heat it yourself on simple stove.

http://www.chicagosfoodbank.org

[TerraPosse]

I really do want to believe that the threat is over.

What scares me is that all the mainstream economists say it's over.

Much like they did just before the big Crash.

History may be repeating itself. I think the jury's out for a while yet...

Well, different opinions make markets. I would bet the house we have BOTTOMED OUT. In fact, I have bet the house.

I hope you have some in-laws you can move in with.  

As was pointed out, it ain't over until its over and with nerves still lying pretty blank it doesn't take a lot to rumble the markets back into a tailspin.  So, I'd be a bit more cautious as to calling the depression a non-event quite yet.

[teatree]

it's not over until the fat lady sings.

I don't know this fat lady you speak of.

ALAN GREENSPAN is good enough for me.

He says it is over.

IT IS OVER.

It is really funny you know. People have such SHORT MEMORIES. We were so close to total world financial disaster just some months ago. This is indeed a political victory against knee jerk right wing libertarianism. Big government in this case WORKED.

Imagine what these Obama can do nothing right types would be saying now if we had entered a new great depression. They would have been very happy to blame him for that. Well, players, it goes both ways ...

Will there be a price to pay over time for these big bailouts? You betcha. But that really pales compared to the damage that would have been done if this action had not been taken and we had entered a great depression.

The STOCK MARKET is also doing a great big cheer for President Obama ... from DJ 6500 ish to 9500 ish in a matter of months!

Would that be the same Greenspan who never saw the crisis coming in the first place?

How many times do these people have to get things wrong before you start to distrust them?

[thedivezone]

it's not over until the fat lady sings.

I don't know this fat lady you speak of.

ALAN GREENSPAN is good enough for me.

He says it is over.

IT IS OVER.

Wasn't Greenspan the bloke who presented us with the dotcom bubble ? !

If he's saying it's over, i'll better cash in my chips. then !

Edited August 4, 2009 by thedivezone

[sendbaht]

We should only criticize when we can offer alternatives.

I like this>>>>>>>>>>>>>> lots of true in this statement.... will remember next time I want to criticize something.

[zzaa09]

Certainly difficult to speculate towards such hypothosis when all is supported by illusion and fantasy....as is the reflected existence.

[mommysboy]

Yes I think the threat of an absolute crash and a major economy or 2 defaulting is now over.

I'm sure it was Gordon Brown, UK, who initiated the most radical action, in first bailing the banks out in toto, and then quantitative easing.

Mind you it was him and those Yank upstarts that got the world in such a mess to begin with.

The price will be a very long and arduous slog, and the effects will be felt on 'world Main St. for months and possibly years to come.

[Jingthing]

Yes I think the threat of an absolute crash and a major economy or 2 defaulting is now over.

Yes this is obvious, but apparently some people can't accept this success most likely because of rigid political ideologies.

[teatree]

Yes I think the threat of an absolute crash and a major economy or 2 defaulting is now over.

Yes this is obvious, but apparently some people can't accept this success most likely because of rigid political ideologies.

You seem to be the one stuck in the false left/right paradigm.

To criticise Obama does not mean someone is right wing, and to criticise Bush does not mean someone is a Liberal.

[Jingthing]

You seem to be the one stuck in the false left/right paradigm.

I deny this.

I do believe this avoidance of a new great depression in our time is of historic proportion and the obvious person to CREDIT for taking the correct action necessary is President Barack Obama. Obviously Geithner is also key but it was Barack Obama who picked him, and Barack Obama who took a massive amount of heat for the pick, seeing his great value through his obvious public relations weaknesses.

What I am seeing here is a completely IRRATIONAL denial that this great depression has been averted by government action (as opposed to random luck). I can only conclude that some of that comes from an aversion to what some people imagine Obama represents politically.

Edited August 4, 2009 by Jingthing

[bojo]

You seem to be the one stuck in the false left/right paradigm.

I deny this.

I do believe this avoidance of a new great depression in our time is of historic proportion and the obvious person to CREDIT for taking the correct action necessary is President Barack Obama.

Regardless of whether Obama should take credit or not, which he,Bush, Brown and others should, at the end of the day, it's their job and tax payers pay and trust them to get the job done. Surely, one of the main reasons as to why the world is in this mess, is that the powers that be worldwide failed to regulate an industry which is the backbone of our capitalist society. The least they can do and at taxpayers expense, I should add,is to make amends. I think I'm being polite here.

I wouldn't call my previous post 'niggardly' considering the job's not fulfilled yet. I'll pat them on the back hopefully in due course.

regards Bojo

[teatree]

You seem to be the one stuck in the false left/right paradigm.

I deny this.

I do believe this avoidance of a new great depression in our time is of historic proportion and the obvious person to CREDIT for taking the correct action necessary is President Barack Obama. Obviously Geithner is also key but it was Barack Obama who picked him, and Barack Obama who took a massive amount of heat for the pick, seeing his great value through his obvious public relations weaknesses.

What I am seeing here is a completely IRRATIONAL denial that this great depression has been averted by government action (as opposed to random luck). I can only conclude that some of that comes from an aversion to what some people imagine Obama represents politically.

Please study history, in particular 'The Great Depression'. What is happening now is very similar to what happened in the lead up to that.

The plunge into depression was never going to be a line going straight down - there are going to be rallies.

A couple of discredited politicians and talking heads saying that we are out of the woods isn't going to fool most people on this forum.

[justcruisin]

Yes I think the threat of an absolute crash and a major economy or 2 defaulting is now over.

Yes this is obvious, but apparently some people can't accept this success most likely because of rigid political ideologies.

Never in anyones wildest dreams would you call anything associated with the present USA economy

a success.

Printing money by the ton and 200,000 people a month losing their job..successfull?

I think NOT.

Only a (short) time will show how pretientious and manipulated this economy is.

[Jingthing]

Never in anyones wildest dreams would you call anything associated with the present USA economy

a success.

I agree the economy is very bad and some parts of it are likely to get worse. However, the crisis in credit and banking liquidity that was quickly leading to a great depression has passed and that is a FACT. Doing nothing as the right wingers promoted would have been a DISASTER.

Of course this no time for a celebration party. These are very tough times. But they could have been that much tougher if the credit and banking liquidity crisis had not been addressed aggressively by GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION.

Edited August 4, 2009 by Jingthing