World Faces 'oil Crunch' Within Five Years

[churchill]

A disastrous energy crunch is looming because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading economist has warned.

Fatih Birol, chief economist with Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), said such an ''oil crunch'' within the next five years could jeopardise recovery from the global recession.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could derail the recovery, Birol said in an interview with The Independent newspaper.

Birol said many governments appeared unaware that oil is running out faster than previously predicted, with global production likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most had estimated.

''One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day,'' Birol said.

''The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously,'' he said.

An assessment of over 800 of the world's major oil fields has found most of the biggest ones have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated two years ago.

Birol also warned that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil - mostly in the Middle East - would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

''The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly.

They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future,'' he said.

The IEA, the energy monitoring and policy arm of the 30-nation Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, said last month that signs of a strong rally in global economic growth and oil demand were fading.

The IEA added however in its latest monthly report that there could be a dramatic turnaround for demand next year.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/wor...90803-e6j3.html

[Soutpeel]

Woopie do.....Day rate increase time again....Excellent news....

[loverboy44]

I bet he is on Shell's payroll. Or maybe Exon's?

[hhgz]

Ever since the first barrel of oil was pumped from the ground, the world's oil supply has been depleting.

[Soutpeel]

I bet he is on Shell's payroll. Or maybe Exon's?

None of the above..but warm.....

[loverboy44]

That was a good one Sootpeel.LOL. Chevron's?

[Soutpeel]

That was a good one Sootpeel.LOL. Chevron's?

That would be telling....

[basjke]

I bet he is on Shell's payroll. Or maybe Exon's?

None of the above..but warm.....

I think he might be on the payroll of one of these guys

[fred2007]

Well if oil runs out one day Thailand will be in big trouble plastic bags are made from oil products

[teletiger]

Oil will never run out. Only become more expensive. Above $100 a barrel the oil sands and shale fields in Canada and the US become profitable. Enough in there for centuries.

Regards.

[aussiebebe]

When will people learn? These predictions vary significantly depending on who is measuring and, at best, are just a series of estimates about future demand, economic conditions and not whether oil runs out, but whether it's profitable to extract it.

Many governments refuse to reveal the true extent of their reserves and few economist are truly independent - there is always a hidden agenda for their predictions. We can't expect the truth from oil companies as it wouldn't be profitable for them to ever exist in a state where they weren't running out of oil.

Energy companies are actually the solution to the 'oil crunch' - whenever it does happen - as they collectively invest by far the largest amounts in alternative energy. Oil will still be the major player in global energy sources well into next century. The biggest problem facing 60% of the worlds countries is a lack of recent and present investment in power stations.

[Thongkorn]

I don't believe it , they are finding more and more oil every year , As technology advances they drill deeper and deeper in the oceans and on land , They have found ways of perging old wells to get more oil out. I think its a conspiracy theory by oil company's so they can justify oil price rises.

[Jingthing]

CHEAP oil has been the lifeblood of the now historic FAT PERIOD of human civilization. That is the past.

[Datsun240Z]

Source: EnergyBulletin.net

Antarctica, the new hot real estate

Zoe Cormier, the Star

There's oil and gas in the Antarctic, too, which global warming may open up. But as the U.K. and others stake claims, scientists wonder what it would cost environments there, and ultimately the planet

---

LONDON - As Russia, Canada and Denmark roll up their sleeves and flex their muscles over the Arctic and North Pole, planting titanium flags on the ocean floor and planning new military bases around the Arctic Circle, a similar drama is unfolding at the opposite end of the Earth.Britain is considering submitting data to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) that would give the U.K. exclusive economic rights to over a million square miles of seabed off the coast of its Antarctic territory. Australia has already put in their own claim to the seabed off their Antarctic territory, and there is little doubt the other five nations that claim a slice of the continent - Norway, Argentina, Chile, France, and New Zealand - will do so as well by a 2009 deadline.

...The motivation lies deep under the sea floor: minerals, oil and gas. It is now nearly impossible to drill in Antarctic waters, mainly because the weather is so severe.

But there may come a day when oil rigs start firing up - perversely because global warming, caused in part by burning fossil fuels, is rendering the Antarctic environment more hospitable to exploration.

Edited August 4, 2009 by Datsun240Z

[britmaveric]

Sounds like speculators trying to pump up the price of oil.

[cmsally]

Roll on hyperinflation - helped along by pumped up fuel prices.

[thaihome]

Well if oil runs out one day Thailand will be in big trouble plastic bags are made from oil products

Actually in Thailand most plastic comes from natural gas.

TH

[thaihome]

Oil will never run out. Only become more expensive. Above $100 a barrel the oil sands and shale fields in Canada and the US become profitable. Enough in there for centuries.

Regards.

Reliable sources tell me it is closer to $70, but bring on the $100 per barrel.

TH

[Soutpeel]

Oil will never run out. Only become more expensive. Above $100 a barrel the oil sands and shale fields in Canada and the US become profitable. Enough in there for centuries.

Regards.

Reliable sources tell me it is closer to $70, but bring on the $100 per barrel.

TH

Agreed..this is number I have heard as well....but $100+/barrel....

[InterestedObserver]

I bet he is on Shell's payroll. Or maybe Exon's?

Nah, one of the rig companies.

[zzaa09]

The 'world'???? Quite assumptuious to consider that everyone lives within the same standard. Those whom have fallen for the faniful ways will be the ones who suffer the most. Unnecessarily, I might add.

[teletiger]

Faniful??? Are you referring to a satisfied customer on Walking Street?

Regards.

[Soutpeel]

I bet he is on Shell's payroll. Or maybe Exon's?

Nah, one of the rig companies.

Nah...guess again..

[thaihome]

He gave the big hint in Post #7, but then most people don't know look for a "U" in the name instead of a "C" (which is someone else).

TH

[tmd5855]

Work offshore Western Australia, been in the offshore/marine industry thirty two years.

Working for the same exploration company for fourteen years .

Client at the moment is a native red Indian tribe? When oil went down to $40. Major exploration work was cancellec. $60 is the break even for these people.

Now oil is back up to/around $70, explorations plans are getting dusted off again.

Rumours abound from their contacts dept on getting longer term contracts for rigs in place sooner rather than later. Internal projections have oil at $100+ by the end of next year.

Bonuses if you stay with the company are being dangled again for September 2010 payment.

Talk of oil shortages is s#i#e.

Lots of oil are out there, its the cost of extraction. When oil stops flowing from a field? there can be 60-70% of the oil remaining.

There is just no longer any pressure to force it up/out.

Recovering those reserves get expensive with water or chemical injection, is what puts the costs up big style.

[Carmine6]

Amazingly, big finds are still being made. A different article says it is larger than a 3 billion barrel found nearby in 2006.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32653850

BP Makes 'Giant' Oil Find in Gulf of Mexico

London-based BP said it had made a "giant" oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, reaffirming the area's importance to Western oil majors who are barred from investing in the world's richest oil prospects elsewhere.

BP said in a statement on Wednesday that it had made the find at its Tiber Prospect in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The well was drilled in Keathley Canyon block 102....

[Geekfreaklover]

There has been a decline in exploration over the past twenty years. There's plently of oil down there but companies are reluctant to pay for deepsea exploration, which is - lets face it -very expensive.

[teletiger]

There has been a decline in exploration over the past twenty years. There's plently of oil down there but companies are reluctant to pay for deepsea exploration, which is - lets face it -very expensive.

Source?

Regards.

Edited September 2, 2009 by teletiger

[teletiger]

Today:

BP Makes ‘Giant’ Oil Discovery in Gulf of Mexico

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=adF31W9._rik

Regards.

[Thongkorn]

BP reported big find today , As technology advances more oil will be found,