Next 11

[eggomaniac]

The excerpt below is from Wikipedia.

It seems, to me, Thailand did, and does, everything in its power to stay off a list of emerging countries.

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The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries — Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam — identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.

Goldman Sachs used macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education as criteria. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging "BRIC" economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

The N11 countries share the characteristics of rapidly growing populations combined with significant industrial capacity or potential. Together, these factors indicate a growing consumer market with increased earning potential, creating business opportunities for both local and international firms. However, long-term risks to the progression of the N11 towards BRIC economic levels include slowing oil production for those that are oil exporters, and mounting levels of political instability.

[basjke]

Together, these factors indicate a growing consumer market with increased earning potential, creating business opportunities for both local and international firms.

You just answered your own question.

[eggomaniac]

Basjke,

I am hoping for an informed discussion.

To be more specific, I have no idea how far the list would have to go before Thailand made it; N12, N100? Is Thailand an 'almost emerging nation', a satisfied 'treading water nation', or a 'going backward' one?

Also, to the points, some of the countries on the N11 list have political upheaval too, for example. How do they rate higher than Thailand?

On the question of education, for example, it is my personal opinion that countries like Viet Nam and the Philipines do a better job of teaching English, delivering it to the masses, not just the Elite. I welcome observations from more travelled Posters. Is English proficiency rate higher in the N11 Nations, than Thailand?

All the time, Thailand has the 'right' to enjoy the benefits of isolation over emergence. Their deals with Japan can keep them going.

Why make moves and plans that might open up prosperity to the lower classes, right?

[thaihome]

I also note that for some reason Malaysia is not mentioned either.

TH

[Carmine6]

Since they say this: "having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies in the 21st century", the countries have to feasibly be possible of ranking.

Check the ranking of countries by population and you get many of these countries very high in the list. In fact if you take out the already developed nations plus the BRIC countries, you get this list. The only exceptions are Ethiopia is not on it and South Korea is not so big.

Going by population, which this list basically does, Thailand would probably be the next one or two names.

Back in 2005, Thaksin was still in power. The coup didn't happen overnight, there was political turmoil leading up to it. That might have factored into Goldman's decision, or perhaps the difficulty in taking money out.

[Time Traveller]

My guess is that thailand does not have a fast growing population. In 20 yrs all of these countries - except South Korea - will have populations at least 2 or 3 times that of thailand.

Also economic growth is not currently as fast as most of these countries either

Edited August 18, 2009 by Time Traveller

[ballbreaker]

This from the same Goldman Sachs that needed billions from government to bail them out because of bad investments.

[losworld]

Goldman must have investments in those countries lol. I wouldn't trust GS farther then I could thrown them which wouldn't be very far considering how fat their asses have become by draining the public treasury in the U.S. and elsewhere.

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population. I also think Indonesia, Phillipines, Vietnam and Malaysia have significant room for growth but Mexico, Bangladesh or Nigeria what are they smoking?

[badge]

what an odd group? never heard of this.

" Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam "

Egypts dead in the water, as is Pakistan. Iran has huge internal issues and Bangladesh is a complete non-starter! The others Im sure will do OK.

Thailands not on there becuse its a bogus list

[badge]

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population.

Sorry, that made me laugh out loud!

[eggomaniac]

Going by population, which this list basically does, Thailand would probably be the next one or two names.

Carmine, thanks for your observation. I took your lead and compared the N11 list with the World Population list, like you suggested, and the G20 list. [also looked at the GDP and GDP-ppp lists]

The N11 list, which I now call the *N7 list fills in the blanks and double fills the countries of non G20 with populations over 50,000,000; omitting Ethiopia, the Congo, Thailand and Burma.

*

There is one way the GS N11/7 list might prove true. That would take a complete geo political shift to populations becoming a crucial, driving force. This 'could' be okay if it was done in a Fair Trade, eco friendly manner,but would this run countries like Canada, Australia, Norway, and Sweden out of business? <These countries rate high in National Product per person.

While the Philipines and Viet Nam might be 'safer' for future investing than Thailand, even Bangladesh if it follwed the India model; I would go into Thailand, warts and all, before thinking of Iran, Nigeria or Pakistan. you think?

Spain, Poland and the Ukraine did not make the list? Their populations are in the 40 million range, they are educated and they practise more OPEN economies.

[losworld]

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population.

Sorry, that made me laugh out loud!

Don't understand what you are laughing about. You don't think China or India have the potential with their large populations and growing education and infrastructure as well as low production costs? As per Korea they are just too small a player but have rapidly grown in many areas including ship building in which Hyundai is completely self sufficient at the manufacturing level. Might be wise to post some rationale rather than just random comments.

[EndofDays]

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population.

Sorry, that made me laugh out loud!

Don't understand what you are laughing about. You don't think China or India have the potential with their large populations and growing education and infrastructure as well as low production costs? As per Korea they are just too small a player but have rapidly grown in many areas including ship building in which Hyundai is completely self sufficient at the manufacturing level. Might be wise to post some rationale rather than just random comments.

Lets see, the U.S., for now, has a free trade capitalistic society where corruption is frowned upon and individual ingenuity and small business is the the foundation...China and India....

[Carmine6]

Going by population, which this list basically does, Thailand would probably be the next one or two names.

Carmine, thanks for your observation. I took your lead and compared the N11 list with the World Population list, like you suggested, and the G20 list. [also looked at the GDP and GDP-ppp lists]

The N11 list, which I now call the *N7 list fills in the blanks and double fills the countries of non G20 with populations over 50,000,000; omitting Ethiopia, the Congo, Thailand and Burma.

*

There is one way the GS N11/7 list might prove true. That would take a complete geo political shift to populations becoming a crucial, driving force. This 'could' be okay if it was done in a Fair Trade, eco friendly manner,but would this run countries like Canada, Australia, Norway, and Sweden out of business? <These countries rate high in National Product per person.

While the Philipines and Viet Nam might be 'safer' for future investing than Thailand, even Bangladesh if it follwed the India model; I would go into Thailand, warts and all, before thinking of Iran, Nigeria or Pakistan. you think?

Spain, Poland and the Ukraine did not make the list? Their populations are in the 40 million range, they are educated and they practise more OPEN economies.

People with lots of money to invest (which the GS list is targeted at) don't have to worry about obstacles that other people do. I would invest in Thailand way before Iran, Nigeria, or Pakistan as well. But with lots of money to invest, you can get access to government officials, tax breaks, grants, infrastructure help, etc. You don't need to be a local when you can buy the help of locals.

I'd say those countries could easily sustain a much higher growth rate than Thailand. They're starting point is just so much further back. Change governments in Iran and there could be an instant pop in growth. There are still 90 years to go in the century and the Ayatollah is pretty old. Nigeria for all it's problems actually seems to be going the right way. I had to look at some demographic and economic trends there for a job and it's fairly stable. One of their biggest problems is too many illegal immigrants coming in from neighboring countries to work there so that tells you something about their economy relative to their neighbors. Would I go or invest there? No.

[badge]

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population.

Sorry, that made me laugh out loud!

Don't understand what you are laughing about. You don't think China or India have the potential with their large populations and growing education and infrastructure as well as low production costs? As per Korea they are just too small a player but have rapidly grown in many areas including ship building in which Hyundai is completely self sufficient at the manufacturing level. Might be wise to post some rationale rather than just random comments.

Apologies. Let me clarify;

I feel confident that in my lifetime, all three countries combind will never come anywhere close to 'overtaking the U.S.' in terms of GDP, GDP per capita or GNP per capita.

What made me chuckle was that South Korea even has "possibilities"!

Edited August 20, 2009 by badge

[eggomaniac]

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population.

Sorry, that made me laugh out loud!

Don't understand what you are laughing about. You don't think China or India have the potential with their large populations and growing education and infrastructure as well as low production costs? As per Korea they are just too small a player but have rapidly grown in many areas including ship building in which Hyundai is completely self sufficient at the manufacturing level. Might be wise to post some rationale rather than just random comments.

Apologies. Let me clarify;

I feel confident that in my lifetime, all three countries combined will never come anywhere close to 'overtaking the U.S.' in terms of GDP, GDP per capita or GNP per capita.

What made me chuckle was that South Korea even has "possibilities"!

The GDP and and GDP-ppp figures are a nearly 2 years old.

Badge,

You should watch the documentary, available on line, IOUSA. It concludes every American, man woman and child would have top dish out $500,000 to get back to even.

California just went bankrupt, but they put expenses off to next year. That is so Ponzi.

Also, Google 'Igor Panarin', after watching IOUSA. Back in 1998, he predicted the economic collapse, then the break up of America.

I don't agree with him that America will 'break up'. Maybe he made that prediction to try to drive needed attention to a train that was running off the tracks.

I do believe many countries, even Thailand will gain and some will overtake America. Obama is well intentioned, but he not taking restorative measures that would have a slim chance of turning train away from a bridge that is out.

The credit card 'crisis' is going to fall like a bigger elephant than the mortgage 'crisis'.

Interests rates HAVE to be lowered below 'usury' and 'loan sharking' rates. While Stop signs and lights are allowed on road ways, measures of price controls, which could turn away the Ponzi economic model, are met with accusations of an attack on 'freedom'. Freedom and wildness are antonyms, NOT synonyms.

ALSO, the Fair Trade movement has to be implemented globally. Unless slaves are found on Mars, it's time to stop exploiting people and children around the World.

The last G20 conference made a true statement. "The emerging nations will be needed for Global Economic recovery. The thing is they will luxury conferences to 'discuss' this for the next 20 to 30 years. Instead they could go back a few decades to the founders of the Fair Trade Movement and hire them as consultants. <They were the ones who saw this 'need' way before everyone else!

[otherstuff1957]

One point that really stuck out in this analysis was the fact that they considered "a rapidly growing population" to be a plus! Maybe my thinking is too 'green' and too long term, but I suspect that in the next 20 to 30 years, as exploitation of (at least) local resources reach their currently attainable limits, some of these overpopulated countries may run into real problems. Bangladesh, for example, is already spending a good portion of it's GNP importing food and oil. One good natural disaster and we could see 10's of millions of starving Bangladeshis pouring over their borders.

So, what happens if we look the the population growth rates for those 10 countries from lowest to highest:

South Korea

Mexico

Indonesia

Turkey

Vietnam

Iran

Bangladesh

Philippines

Egypt

Pakistan

Nigeria

While Iran is fairly high in Population growth, they currently don't have a very high population density, plus they are a major oil producer, so I would say that the first 6 nations on that list are good bets for becoming reasonably major economic players in the next few decades. The last four countries are going to end up spending a large part of their GDI importing food & oil (both of which are going to be increasingly expensive).

Thailand is actually fairly well positioned to get through the next few decades: they are one of the world's major food producers and they have a fairly low population growth rate.

[PeaceBlondie]

Most developed countries have very low population growth rates; Thailand and Mexico now, also. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Populati..._rate_world.PNG

Added also from wiki Thailand Population growth rate

* 0.64% (2008 est.)

* 0.615% (2009 est.)

[hhgz]

"It seems, to me, Thailand did, and does, everything in its power to stay off a list of emerging countries."

So what?

[WarpSpeed]

I would think the country with the greatest chance of overtaking the U.S. plain and simple would be China or India with South Korea having possibilities but constrained due to lack of population.

Sorry, that made me laugh out loud!

The question isn't overtaking the US anyway, its about "emerging" economies not 'overtaking' ones..

[Heng]

We have a couple Thai companies in the family along for the ride for Vietnam. More than a few Thai Chinese of Vietnamese descent families based out of Khon Kaen as well.

[sokal]

The excerpt below is from Wikipedia.

It seems, to me, Thailand did, and does, everything in its power to stay off a list of emerging countries.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries — Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam — identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.

Goldman Sachs used macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education as criteria. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging "BRIC" economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

The N11 countries share the characteristics of rapidly growing populations combined with significant industrial capacity or potential. Together, these factors indicate a growing consumer market with increased earning potential, creating business opportunities for both local and international firms. However, long-term risks to the progression of the N11 towards BRIC economic levels include slowing oil production for those that are oil exporters, and mounting levels of political instability.

If you look at it now it seems to me that Goldman Sachs was way off with these predictions in 05.

Mexico- complete cluster &lt;deleted&gt;

Iran- complete cluster &lt;deleted&gt;

Pakistan- complete cluster &lt;deleted&gt;

[sokal]

The excerpt below is from Wikipedia.

It seems, to me, Thailand did, and does, everything in its power to stay off a list of emerging countries.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries — Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam — identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.

Goldman Sachs used macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies, and the quality of education as criteria. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging "BRIC" economies, Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

The N11 countries share the characteristics of rapidly growing populations combined with significant industrial capacity or potential. Together, these factors indicate a growing consumer market with increased earning potential, creating business opportunities for both local and international firms. However, long-term risks to the progression of the N11 towards BRIC economic levels include slowing oil production for those that are oil exporters, and mounting levels of political instability.

Edited August 23, 2009 by sokal