New Storms Brewing On Political Landscape

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

New storms brewing on political landscape

By Somroutai Sapsomboon

Kornchanok Raksaseri

The Nation

Published on September 10, 2009

A month of charter change, confrontation, and court rulings

It will get increasingly damp and wet as we approach the end of the rainy season, but Thais will be more concerned with the political tornadoes taking shape at the moment.

Next Wednesday and Thursday, MPs and senators will consider Constitution amendment - proposed in July by the parliamentary committee for reconciliation in its submission to the House Speaker and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

It is undeniable the meeting followed pressure from the coalition parties, especially Bhum Jai Thai.

The committee proposed six main points for charter amendment, with Bhum Jai Thai stressing interest in two of them.

First, Article 190 - to identify issues needing parliamentary approval for an agreement with a foreign country.

The second point is on the election system - changing from a large constituency to a single-MP system with new rules for proportionate MPs, from 80 MPs representing eight zones to 100 party-list MPs from across the country.

The Democrats differ with other parties on the election system. Although secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said his party would not oppose discussion on the issue, their stance is still unclear.

Also, the Democrats disagreed on changes to Article 237. Although they agreed on lifting the party dissolution penalty when party executives commit electoral fraud, they opposed lifting penalties for party executives, saying the executives should be responsible.

Other parties agreed that only the individual wrongdoer deserves to be punished. Next week, we may see whether the government coalition parties are looking in the same direction.

A few days later, September 19 will commemorate the military coup of 2006. To mark the three years since power was seized from former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the red shirts plan to rally in front of the residence of Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda.

Certainly, Suthep - in charge of national security- must evaluate whether the Internal Security Act should be imposed during the period. The law, as a tool, worked earlier this month when the red shirts postponed a rally scheduled for September 5, after cancelling another the previous month. The government had earlier announced ISA enforcement for the Dusit district where the group was scheduled to gather.

Next Saturday's rally will show the power of this anti-government group which has declared its gathering would last for only one day.

However, the political situation is sensitive and the relationship between the main ruling party and Bhum Jai Thai not as sweet as in the past. If 50,000 red shirts join the rally, it could threaten the government which would not only need to keep things peaceful but would also be wary of a third party's instigation.

All parties must keep their eyes on what motivates so many red shirts.

On the next day, (September 20) Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva goes to the UN General Assembly in New York. If he returns as scheduled on September 26, Abhisit will be very relieved. When the military coup in 2006 occurred, Thaksin was visiting the same body.

Nevertheless, Abhisit still has another important job to work out before he goes to the US: appointment of a new national police chief.

So far, however, the candidate for the post is still uncertain. It is possible Abhisit will leave the appointment until the end of the month.

September 21 is the day the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders is scheduled to deliver its verdict in the rubber sapling case. Among the 44 defendants is Bhum Jai Thai de facto leader Newin Chidchob.

It is the second case related to Thaksin's government to be investigated by the Assets Examination Committee. The first was the Ratchadaphisek land case in which Thaksin was sentenced to two years jail, became a fugitive and has so far not served the penalty.

In the rubber sapling case, either way the ruling goes it would have political implications.

If the court says the politicians are not guilty, the red shirts would heavily attack the justice system.

But if the court says the defendants, including Newin, are guilty and must be jailed, the role of Newin and his Bhum Jai Thai Party would be degraded.

It's not only the red shirts who want to see Newin jailed. The weakening of Bhum Jai Thai in its dealings with the core ruling party would be a relief to many Democrats.

At the end of the month, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hand down a verdict in the two- and three-digit lottery case. The defendants are Thaksin cabinet members.

-- The Nation 2009/09/10

[animatic]

Beware the fall. Or better said the Autumn.

Too much befalls Thailand in the Autumn.

[geriatrickid]

I thought it was beware the Ides of March.................

So which role does your beloved PM play? Is he the one that cries out et tu Brute as a military man in plunges the sword of betrayal into his gut (metophorically speaking), which is then followed by leading senators taking a stab too? Or does he then take refuge in a foreign land smitten by a nymphomaniac only to be hunted down by a follower of the one he betrayed?

Can you tell I thoroughly enjoyed "Rome"?

[hammered]

Well the first big one is Sept 19. After the ruling on the Oct 7 case the police have said they dont know how to enforce riot control now. The head of the police has resigned after being inactivated and his big bro the defence minister is not a happy camper. The defence minister is good mates with most of the army brass. The interior minister is all uppity that someone has the audacity to try to bring the ultra mess known as the Alpine case to cocnclusion (it is a classic that exposes all the worst in Thai politics and corruption). Well now Thaksin and his red shirts know this. There is a big demo planned for Sept 19. The PM will be in NY leaving Suthep in charge.

All it needs is for the script of this couldnt be real movie to be completed.....

[GlobolStaff]

Thank you for your information and soon reply to my question.

[Insight]

Well the first big one is Sept 19. After the ruling on the Oct 7 case the police have said they dont know how to enforce riot control now. The head of the police has resigned after being inactivated and his big bro the defence minister is not a happy camper. The defence minister is good mates with most of the army brass. The interior minister is all uppity that someone has the audacity to try to bring the ultra mess known as the Alpine case to cocnclusion (it is a classic that exposes all the worst in Thai politics and corruption). Well now Thaksin and his red shirts know this. There is a big demo planned for Sept 19. The PM will be in NY leaving Suthep in charge.

All it needs is for the script of this couldnt be real movie to be completed.....

Regarding the problems with the police - if they're threatenining not to do anything about the red shirt rally, so what? That's exactly what they done in Bangkok during Songkran, Pattaya during the Asean conference and Swampy during the yellow shirt protest/takeover/whatever.

Just the Thai cops living up to their well-deserved reputation of being the biggest waste of the Thai taxpayers money.

[RKASA]

Mr. Sondhi has been whipping his forces into shape as well.  With threats for mess protests and the call for removal of near 150 some MP's as well as using the emotions of the temple issue again.

He is game for another go round even with this dear PM which he seems to have lost respect for.  I guess thats the way things are for him when he can't walk into government house anytime he likes and tell people what to do.  Get ready for another sacking of government house and maybe he'll close the airport again.  

After all the police don't know what to do anymore, its like open season.  Those that need to keep order have been sacrificed to save the face of a favored mob and disgrace a former administration.  reap what you sow.  This more then anything Mr. Sondhi knows plays into another coup, and will further his dream of even more voter restrictions when the military again writes a new constitution.

I believe the reds are fast becoming less a concern then some others.  Just keep your eye on the red ball, pay the man behind the curtain no mind.

[hammered]

Mr. Sondhi has been whipping his forces into shape as well.  With threats for mess protests and the call for removal of near 150 some MP's as well as using the emotions of the temple issue again.

He is game for another go round even with this dear PM which he seems to have lost respect for.  I guess thats the way things are for him when he can't walk into government house anytime he likes and tell people what to do.  Get ready for another sacking of government house and maybe he'll close the airport again.  

After all the police don't know what to do anymore, its like open season.  Those that need to keep order have been sacrificed to save the face of a favored mob and disgrace a former administration.  reap what you sow.  This more then anything Mr. Sondhi knows plays into another coup, and will further his dream of even more voter restrictions when the military again writes a new constitution.

I believe the reds are fast becoming less a concern then some others.  Just keep your eye on the red ball, pay the man behind the curtain no mind.

Yes the yellow shirts are readying for a reappearance linked to charter reform time and that there are now at least 4 distinct groups playing complicates it all the more with potantial alliances hard to predict and dependent to some degree on what happens.

[animatic]

I thought it was beware the Ides of March.................

So which role does your beloved PM play? Is he the one that cries out et tu Brute as a military man in plunges the sword of betrayal into his gut (metophorically speaking), which is then followed by leading senators taking a stab too? Or does he then take refuge in a foreign land smitten by a nymphomaniac only to be hunted down by a follower of the one he betrayed?

Can you tell I thoroughly enjoyed "Rome"?

The Ides are a date in mid month.

The 15th day of March, May, July, October, the 13th of other months,

also the eighth day after the nones in the ancient Roman calendar.

We may be approaching another portentous Ides.

In Thai politics the long knives are so rarely sheathed.

Our house is hel_l: and thou, a merry devil,

Didst rob it of some taste of tediousness.

Beloved is but a strong word for appreciation beyond bounds.

Would I be sad to see the metaphorical swords thrust, certainly.

But more for the fall of Roman in consequence, than any Cesar.

[Plus]

Mr. Sondhi has been whipping his forces into shape as well.  With threats for mess protests and the call for removal of near 150 some MP's as well as using the emotions of the temple issue again.

He is game for another go round even with this dear PM which he seems to have lost respect for.  I guess thats the way things are for him when he can't walk into government house anytime he likes and tell people what to do.  Get ready for another sacking of government house and maybe he'll close the airport again.  

After all the police don't know what to do anymore, its like open season.  Those that need to keep order have been sacrificed to save the face of a favored mob and disgrace a former administration.  reap what you sow.  This more then anything Mr. Sondhi knows plays into another coup, and will further his dream of even more voter restrictions when the military again writes a new constitution.

I believe the reds are fast becoming less a concern then some others.  Just keep your eye on the red ball, pay the man behind the curtain no mind.

Yes the yellow shirts are readying for a reappearance linked to charter reform time and that there are now at least 4 distinct groups playing complicates it all the more with potantial alliances hard to predict and dependent to some degree on what happens.

Interestingly, PAD is the only public voice regarding those proposed amendments.

Like it or not, but if they are supposed to achieve reconciliation, PAD and RED opinions should be taken into account, they were the main protagonists, after all.

Reds apparently have no opinion.

[TAWP]

Interesting that so many are for a change that dissolution of a party if some of it's executive staff is found committing fraud should be removed...but then again, if I was a bank-robber I would vote for the removal of guards too.

[somluck]

The second point is on the election system - changing from a large constituency to a single-MP system with new rules for proportionate MPs, from 80 MPs representing eight zones to 100 party-list MPs from across the country

This is a very unfair way of representation

[hammered]

Mr. Sondhi has been whipping his forces into shape as well.  With threats for mess protests and the call for removal of near 150 some MP's as well as using the emotions of the temple issue again.

He is game for another go round even with this dear PM which he seems to have lost respect for.  I guess thats the way things are for him when he can't walk into government house anytime he likes and tell people what to do.  Get ready for another sacking of government house and maybe he'll close the airport again.  

After all the police don't know what to do anymore, its like open season.  Those that need to keep order have been sacrificed to save the face of a favored mob and disgrace a former administration.  reap what you sow.  This more then anything Mr. Sondhi knows plays into another coup, and will further his dream of even more voter restrictions when the military again writes a new constitution.

I believe the reds are fast becoming less a concern then some others.  Just keep your eye on the red ball, pay the man behind the curtain no mind.

Yes the yellow shirts are readying for a reappearance linked to charter reform time and that there are now at least 4 distinct groups playing complicates it all the more with potantial alliances hard to predict and dependent to some degree on what happens.

Interestingly, PAD is the only public voice regarding those proposed amendments.

Like it or not, but if they are supposed to achieve reconciliation, PAD and RED opinions should be taken into account, they were the main protagonists, after all.

Reds apparently have no opinion.

Yes at the end of the day both the reds and yellows have to be placated to some degree in a compromise.

[animatic]

The party list system

is one of the stupidest ever devised to be called democratic.

[Plus]

I don't believe in "reconciliation".

Thaksin should return and serve his time. Everything else is just smokescreen nonsense that is attributed to all kinds of "divisions" instead.

[RKASA]

I don't believe in "reconciliation".

Thaksin should return and serve his time. Everything else is just smokescreen nonsense that is attributed to all kinds of "divisions" instead.

I have believed for some time the issues overall transcend Thaksin and if he serves his time or not will be a mere foot note to all this by its end.  Better to take in a larger vista at this point.  The set back it may cause could take twenty years to undo.

[Samuian]

Who will tell, Popcorn lay back and watch the riddle unfold....

Who knows.... in which direction the pendulum will be moved?

IF Newin is found guilty, who else and what will happen?

After all there are some 44 highflyer's involved!

Alpine Scandal...

While in the midst if the Charade, Abhisit/Suthep be able to move their

men on the chessboard into the right position?

Gen.Sonthi is going to make a comeback into the thai political arena!

Will he call the ISA on the 19th again and keep it in place till he returns?

And what are the red shirt punks going to demonstrate for, they haven't

been founded than nor because of the coup!?

oooh - yes for real democracy... and against dictator ship - I forgot... I love it'

- it's nearly as good as "The Muppet Show"!

ah' well - we will see - funny how history haunts the present and the future....

Edited September 10, 2009 by Samuian

[animatic]

"Reconciliation", is fine in cash registers, cash drawers and receipts at the end of the day.

Or between the prodigal son and the parents, or estranged families after many years.

But if ignoring laws and giving a free pass to graft is ALSO reconciliation,

it is a dangerous and useless definition. Sounds more like Lloyd Geogre's appeasement.

[stumonster]

will all the by elections happen before the stimulus project cash is disbursed ?

[RKASA]

"Reconciliation", is fine in cash registers, cash drawers and receipts at the end of the day.

Or between the prodigal son and the parents, or estranged families after many years.

But if ignoring laws and giving a free pass to graft is ALSO reconciliation,

it is a dangerous and useless definition. Sounds more like Lloyd Geogre's appeasement.

crossing the Rubicon are we?  

[Plus]

I don't believe in "reconciliation".

Thaksin should return and serve his time. Everything else is just smokescreen nonsense that is attributed to all kinds of "divisions" instead.

I have believed for some time the issues overall transcend Thaksin and if he serves his time or not will be a mere foot note to all this by its end.  Better to take in a larger vista at this point.  The set back it may cause could take twenty years to undo.

Of course those issues transcend Thaksin, issues like wealth gap or power distribution between bureaucracy and elected governments.

My point is that those issues are not the causes of the current turmoil, they are tools used to pitch Thaksin's supporters against the rest of the country.

Solving them (as it were possible at all) will not stop Thaksin, but stopping Thaksin from exploiting them would be a pre-requisite to tackling them together as a nation.

[NUMBNUTTS]

It is indeed a relief to see that somebody managed to insert Thaksin's calling - yet again - to come home to papa - like a good boy - and serve his time!!

This entire post would have been meaningless with out such brilliant commentary. We thank you.

Now I can safely return to reading Yomama's 3,000 page soliloquy - to be, or not to be?

Note to self - get out und meet some real people today

[Duangta]

Free interpretation of Macbeth Act 1 Scene 1

Sondhi

When shall we three meet again?

In thunder, lightning, or in rain?

Newin

When the hurlyburly's done,

When the battle's lost and won.

Prem

That will be ere the set of sun.

Sondhi

Where the place?

Newin

Upon the heath.

Prem

There to meet with Abhisit.

Sondhi

I come, Graymalkin!

Newin

Paddock calls.

Prem

Anon.

ALL

Fair is foul, and foul is fair:

Hover through the fog and filthy air.

[jamesjdaly]

This country is a circus. Not a particularly funny one either.

[Priceless]

"Reconciliation", is fine in cash registers, cash drawers and receipts at the end of the day.

Or between the prodigal son and the parents, or estranged families after many years.

But if ignoring laws and giving a free pass to graft is ALSO reconciliation,

it is a dangerous and useless definition. Sounds more like Lloyd Geogre's appeasement.

Would you care to expound on your phrase "Lloyd George's appeasement"? I, for one, do not understand what you are referring to.

/ Priceless

[KevinBloodyWilson]

This country is a circus. Not a particularly funny one either.

I have noted before and I will doubtless note again that I believe we are watching the demise of Thailand.

Earlier today I had lunch with a close friend whose husband has been working in Thailand for 16 years., He has built uop a large textile manufacturing plant and his exports earn a lot of money for Thais and Thailand, as well as for him.

He is leaving, in fact the whole family is leaving and the business will be closed. Thais will be out of work an the Thai exchequer will be out a lot of money.

The reason? he says has had a bellyful of the behaviour of the Thai governments and the petty squabbles of Thai 'politicians' which do nothing to enhance the management of the country. Also the inability of the country's elites to make the sociological changes he believes are both desirable and inevitable to avoid serious conflict and bloodshed in Thailand.

In short, he also believes that Thailand is in permanent decline but he puts a different timescale on it - 2 to 3 years.

It seems obvious to me that this situation is not accidental and it is not entirely due to incompetence - Thai governments have always been incompetent. This is by design, though it is far from clear as to who could possibly benefit from what we are watching day by day.

It has been noticed by a lot of people already that we farangs are much less welcome here these days, and Thais do love to make problems for foreigners, it is one of the things that they can do in which utter incompetence and lack of any kind of vision or management ability is actually an advantage. So many farangs are voting with their feet, as is my friend and her husband.

Westernisation brings wealth, no doubt about that. But Thailand thinks that Thailand does not need foreigners and Thailand will pay the price for that piece of stupidity, because ultimately, and unpalatable as it may be, Thais have neither the skills not the education to stand on their own feet. Not yet and probably not ever if what is happening now is to continue. It is obvious to all except Thais that Thais need westerners. While most other countries in SE Asia are going forward, Thailand is slowly but surely returning to a stone age of its own making

We should all remember that this is the house that Jack built. Jack has the resources to build any house Jack wants, and Jack has built this one. It's not accidental. This is the house that Jack built because this is the house that Jack wanted to build, and the house which best suits Jack's own needs.

If Jack wanted a different house, he would have built a different house. But he built this one.

And it is very sad what Jack is doing, because Jack is wealthy but the people who will carry the burden of working in Jack's garden are not. Even more sadly, Jack is not just one person, Jack is many people, which just makes it even more difficult to resolve.

One day, Thais will awaken to a world where their poor and childish behaviour is no longer tolerated, and to a world where it is impossible to pretend any more that they are important or even relevant. To a world where they have lost all face and where everyone can see the emperor has no clothes. On that day, Thais will see more go-ahead and less arrogant nations through the lens of envy and wonder <deleted> happened, though the warning signs have been there for a while and are still there.

Just an opinion, though I believe it is based on evidence.

Edited September 10, 2009 by KevinBloodyWilson

[ThNiner]

^ The textile industry in Thailand has been considered a "sunset" industry for quite a while now, because of the emergence of counrties with cheaper labor such as Vietnam and China. I doubt if the decline of this industry is the actual reflection of various problems in Thailand you've mentioned. The decline of textile industry is more of a natural progression of industrial sector in Thailand that has began to shift itself away from labor-intensive industry to the knowledge-based one.

Anyway, good luck to your friend and his wife in whatever career path they will take.

[shiatsuman]

"Reconciliation", is fine in cash registers, cash drawers and receipts at the end of the day.

Or between the prodigal son and the parents, or estranged families after many years.

But if ignoring laws and giving a free pass to graft is ALSO reconciliation,

it is a dangerous and useless definition. Sounds more like Lloyd Geogre's appeasement.

I think it is Neville Chamberlain who was linked to the British Conservative appeasment policy towards the expansion plans of Hitler. The Munich agreament was supposed to ensure peace in Europe but was in fact the prelude of World War 2. The lesson seems to be be that by appeasing a dictator (or a big boss ?) one is seen as weak and therefore more demands are made. But then appeasement and loss of face have a certain dynamic that is important in Thai politics

[Chunkton]

I don't believe in "reconciliation".

Thaksin should return and serve his time. Everything else is just smokescreen nonsense that is attributed to all kinds of "divisions" instead.

This may come as a shock, but I doubt any Thais could care less what you think about reconciliation. And of course just to add some irony the very ones you don't believe in reconciling with are the rightful government anyway.

Taksin in jail may just create a "martyr" scenario making things worse. Has it ever occurred to you that if you can't kill off all your opponents then you need accommodate them?

[animatic]

"Reconciliation", is fine in cash registers, cash drawers and receipts at the end of the day.

Or between the prodigal son and the parents, or estranged families after many years.

But if ignoring laws and giving a free pass to graft is ALSO reconciliation,

it is a dangerous and useless definition. Sounds more like Lloyd George's appeasement.

I think it is Neville Chamberlain who was linked to the British Conservative appeasment policy towards the expansion plans of Hitler. The Munich agreament was supposed to ensure peace in Europe but was in fact the prelude of World War 2. The lesson seems to be be that by appeasing a dictator (or a big boss ?) one is seen as weak and therefore more demands are made. But then appeasement and loss of face have a certain dynamic that is important in Thai politics

Yes, thank you, Chamberlain. (sorry Mr George.)

Yes, and it is that face saving dynamic of appeasement that Thaksin is playing on so cynically.

For The Remians Of The Day, we shall wonder which is the best course,

in the morning all will be clear.