Is Thailand Sliding Towards Civil War?

[somluck]

What do you think? In any case what the south is experiencing is already a small civil war

[Travel2003]

What do you think? In any case what the south is experiencing is already a small civil war

In my opinion. No.

And I dont think whats going on in the south can be called civil war.

[givenall]

What do you think? In any case what the south is experiencing is already a small civil war

In my opinion. No.

And I dont think whats going on in the south can be called civil war.

I agree and personally i think the government is fully in charge and able to control any situation.

i think these are all bunch of hot air. I know the wounded dogs always bark louder.

[waza]

I will let you know on sunday.

[hhgz]

Months ago, bingobongo predicted that thousands of yellow and red shirts would die fight for their cause. Thus far, only a handful have died, but the year is still young.

[somluck]

Months ago, bingobongo predicted that thousands of yellow and red shirts would die fight for their cause. Thus far, only a handful have died, but the year is still young.

To have civil war on a full scale, those with guns need to get invloved. The army is putting up an united front and dun seems to be spilt. So unless the police are willing to fight them.....

[bigbadmamasan]

It can hardly be called civil war - more folks die DUI

[mc2]

personally i think the government is fully in charge

i always chuckle when i hear comments like this.

abhisit cant control his own coalition let alone the country.

he is a puppet .

[Garry9999]

Months ago, bingobongo predicted that thousands of yellow and red shirts would die fight for their cause. Thus far, only a handful have died, but the year is still young.

To have civil war on a full scale, those with guns need to get invloved. The army is putting up an united front and dun seems to be spilt. So unless the police are willing to fight them.....

Are you suggesting that the general population doesn't have guns?

[mc2]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Edited September 14, 2009 by mc2

[Crossy]

Please avoid bringing discussion of the Thai monarchy into this thread, a number of posts and the responses to them have been removed:-

2) Not to express disrespect of the King of Thailand or anyone else in the Thai royal family, whether living or deceased, nor to criticize the monarchy as an institution. Speculation and comments of a political nature are not allowed when discussing HM The King or the Royal family. Discussion of the lese majeste law or lese majeste cases is permitted on the forum, providing no comment or speculation is made referencing the royal family. To breach this rule will result in immediate ban.

Warnings and holidays will be handed out next time!

[PoorSucker]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Yes, The "Love" parade during songkran was impressive.

Also the gay bashing in Chiang mai by the loving red shirts.

[losworld]

I think if Thaksin is involved it will be an "uncivil" war

[carmine]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Stupid and ill informed is no way to go through life

[mc2]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Stupid and ill informed is no way to go through life

there must be something that gets you out of bed in the morning.

jesus perhaps ?

Edited September 14, 2009 by mc2

[JR Texas]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Stupid and ill informed is no way to go through life

there must be something that gets you out of bed in the morning.

jesus perhaps ?

To answer the question of the OP.............of course Thailand is "sliding" towards a type of civil war. I don't see how people can even deny that fact. The issue is how far away from that scenario is it.

In addition, it is obvious that guns are not needed to create massive casualties.......in Rwanda machetes were the preferred weapons of choice and knives and sticks, etc.

There is a rural vs urban divide taking place. On the rural side are most "red coats." On the urban side are most "yellow coats."

All out civil war is, IMHO, a long way off. But the waring camps are taking shape. If nothing is done to alter Thailand's seemingly suicidal economic policies, Thailand-Titanic will continue to go under.......tensions will go up..........sporadic fighting will take place.

The person who said a civil war is not taking place in the south needs to pull his or her head of out the sand.........it is taking place, but at this point amateurs are comprising the resistance.

I expect that conflict to eventually spread to important economic areas like Phuket, Krabi, Koh Samui, Hua Hin.........it is only a matter of time.

It is odd to think of Thailand like this..........ten years ago it did not seem in the cards........now it seems like a potential reality.

[geriatrickid]

I agree and personally i think the government is fully in charge and able to control any situation.

i think these are all bunch of hot air. I know the wounded dogs always bark louder.

Uhhh, sort of like they way they can control the airport? Umm yea.

There will be no civil war at this time, but only because no one cares. Despite the gutter talk and the pettiness, people are not willing to die on either side of the political divide just for the sake of changing one pair of soiled knickers for another.

[Jingthing]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Love? You mean like the love North Koreans feel for the dear leader?

[mc2]

The longest-serving democratically-elected Prime Minister of Thailand, Thaksin, has a lot of good qualities. They love him for those. i don't know much about that secretive kim jung ill chap or woteva his name is

[Briggsy]

Very unlikely indeed. The only guerilla war is in the Deep South. The army's patronage system, seniority system and only allowing certain scions from certain families to control the combat troops means it retains decisive control. The only scenario I can think of is if the army found itself with its back against the wall, really challenged militarily by some kind of militia that doesn't exist at the moment and squeezed out of its traditional government and informal income streams. A very unlikely scenario, indeed.

[Moonrakers]

If they had a civil war how would they know who is who? Would they have red/yellow camouflage fatigues?

[Moonrakers]

[Moonrakers]

They should blend in well at KSR.

[mahtin]

really challenged militarily by some kind of militia that doesn't exist at the moment

Pattaya seals?

[EffectiveAnger]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

I don't know about that. It seems most of the yellow shirts were/are driven by their love for the King; there's been plenty of evidence to prove that.

And the red shirts have been showing an awful lot of hate towards the government, especially the current PM. They are still bitter about the PAD siege at the airports as well as the military's reluctance to remove them by force. But most of all I think they are sick and tired of being poor, oppressed and disenfranchised by the opulent as well as being treated with indifference (by the bourgeoisie) because of their ethnicity and lack of fair opportunity within a corrupt system.

And I can't tell you how many pro red shirts (especially taxi drivers) who keep insisting to me that there's going to be a civil war here.

[tb86]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

dude are you kidding me, are you taksins personal liason to the farang community or something? He's gone and unlikley to ever return to politics, move on. Its a little sad to see grown men or women going on and on about the guy... He was a crook, the new guys are crooks what's the difference..

[EffectiveAnger]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

dude are you kidding me, are you taksins personal liason to the farang community or something? He's gone and unlikley to ever return to politics, move on. Its a little sad to see grown men or women going on and on about the guy... He was a crook, the new guys are crooks what's the difference..

Thaksin might be gone from a physical existence in Thailand, but he certainly has a large number of cronies to take his place.

Speaking of AK47s, well, been there, done that, got that T-shirt, but it's not how MC2, depicts in a senario.

"Sondhi [PAD leader] was reported to have been the target of an assassination attempt on the morning of 17 April 2009. Gunmen firing M-16 and AK-47 rifles shot out his tires at a petrol station in Bangkok and sprayed over 100 bullets into Sondhi’s car, wounding Sondhi and seriously wounding his driver.^[51] The attackers escaped the scene when Sondhi's followers in another car opened fire on them. Sondhi suffered one wound to the head but was conscious, standing, and lucid before being sent to the hospital for surgery.^[52] Sondhi survived the surgery and was visited by relatives afterwards.

Sondhi's son, Jittanart Limthongkul, blamed factions within the military and the Abhisit government of being behind the assassination attempt:

"

A new form of war is emerging

-- it's being launched by the collusion of certain police and military officers. They are plotting a new coup. It is said that a minister, who is said to be involved in the attempted assassination of a privy councillor, is actively behind this new exercise."

^[53]

^"

^{Remember, Sondhi}

^was

^{a loyal Thaksin supporter. This guy must have some sort of angels watching over him to survive that sort of attack by AK47s, being hit in the head and living to tell about event. Also, remember that Thaksin's cousin is a high ranking military general. I've also heard a rumour that the attack was motivated by Thaksin from abroad.}

Can we discuss Triads again?

[Rionoir]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

Bwahahahahaha...

[snuggzzz]

I agree and personally i think the government is fully in charge and able to control any situation.

i think these are all bunch of hot air. I know the wounded dogs always bark louder.

Uhhh, sort of like they way they can control the airport? Umm yea.

There will be no civil war at this time, but only because no one cares. Despite the gutter talk and the pettiness, people are not willing to die on either side of the political divide just for the sake of changing one pair of soiled knickers for another.

Marvellous..........well said......

[caf]

a huge amount of yellows are fanatical and driven purely by hate.

the reds in contrast are driven by love.

I suppose if things hotted up over the next few months, and another victor bout came along with a truck load of AK47s and rocket launchers, and parked it in the yellows headquarters ,

we could very well see some type of "ethnic cleansing". would the army step in ? half heatedly to round them up, but if the reds had the guns, well, dead for sure.

I don't know about that. It seems most of the yellow shirts were/are driven by their love for the King; there's been plenty of evidence to prove that.

And the red shirts have been showing an awful lot of hate towards the government, especially the current PM. They are still bitter about the PAD siege at the airports as well as the military's reluctance to remove them by force. But most of all I think they are sick and tired of being poor, oppressed and disenfranchised by the opulent as well as being treated with indifference (by the bourgeoisie) because of their ethnicity and lack of fair opportunity within a corrupt system.

And I can't tell you how many pro red shirts (especially taxi drivers) who keep insisting to me that there's going to be a civil war here.

Why can't you tell us? And you have spoken to Thais who use the word "insist" and "civil war" I don't think so.