I'm Short Crude Oil!

[OxfordWill]

spread betting on IGs futures, so its not true to the market, just close.

[LivinLOS]

Wasnt calling you out Will..

Merely Harms post was at late night after a trading day that saw a peak and pullback to approx (cant be bothered to look) 61 - 62.. So already making a 66.? by look like instant profits..

From the timestamp of the post to now there has been a rise of 4% or so in oil prices..

Also I think that a minor pullback does look likely.. A 50% year to date rise.. The end of the summer driving season in the US.. Oil will not simply go up and up in a straght line but with Chinese expansion, indian expansion, a new are of insurgent conflict, etc I dont see cheap oil for a long way out if at all.. Sure we could see 50.. We may even see 40 (though I would really bet against that) but 10 ??? Well you know my opinion..

As stated at year start 80 USD at some point in 2006 is my call..

[britmaveric]

Oil is cyclic - it always has been and always will be. The bottom will drop out eventually - and you can take it to the bank.

[LivinLOS]

Oil is cyclic in a market with adequate supply and static demand..

The awakening of a country as populus as china coupled with the possibility of peak oil (Saudis Gwahar (SP) field may have passed peakj output even now) do create a 'perfect storm' opportunity for a real oil spike..

I am not saying thats going to happen only that the oil markets we have seen for the last 40 or so years are not the markets we are moving into..

The big issues right now are refinery and movement.. Saudi might be able to raise output somewhat but its tight.. If demand rises at the rates it looks ike and output cannot be raised to correspond then a bidding war for the resource will start.. While higher prices allow alternative sources such as tar sands etc to be used and other non viable right now technologies rolled out we are looking at an increasing need to a decresing resource (multi year investment required to fix some of the supply line issues)..

[OxfordWill]

As far as the short term markets are concerned, they're just as sensitive to the news as anything else, and as livinLOS says, the long term focus is on refinery.

[LivinLOS]

Not bad Swedish!

I believe that oil prices (in the long run) can only go one way; up. Us living here in Asia see the growing demand every day. The average Chinese and Indian use 1 barrel of oil/year. In the Western world we use about 25 barrels!

Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then accept my challenge -- an open challenge to all here at Thaivisa & every expert worldwide. An OPEN challenge!

If I'm wrong it will be plainly visible via Thaivisa's date & time stamp on all posts! Dig?

Your reasons for thinking that Crude Oil will go up are not without considerable agreement from the "expert" community. Some have said that even $100 is too low and that we could easily see $250.

You can come up with a zillion fundamental reasons -- and I'm sure that "G", a renowned scientist in his own right, can add another quadrillion reasons.

But I'm saying you are ALL wrong! OK?

Let the games begin! Regards to you for playing.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is time! The game is now in motion!

SHORT call @ $66.3 .

Additional SHORTS to be placed @ $67.55 & $70.05 ... if there is a sudden last ditch spike!

STOPLOSS on the first order and any subsequent fills is at $70.45!

Might have to juggle positions around depending on how right/wrong the market says I am -- but I am IN .

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well that will be the first of the additional shorts taken on then..

[jaidam]

Hi Harmonica,

can you confirm that you added to your short yesterday?I saw oil briefly top $68 a barrel.

Nice!!!

[DavieA]

Oil, shmoil!!!!

Quite worrying about your bank accounts and start to think of the destruction that oil and your quest for money does to this planet.

Are your kids going to thankyou for what mess you've left behind for them to clean up, or are they going to say thanks for the better world you've left them with?

nice day to you all!

Edited August 26, 2005 by DavieA

[LivinLOS]

Your right.. Uranium is the better play.. All those Chinese pebble bed reactors being built...

The world needs energy (I assume of course your PC is solar powered ??) making bets whether the priuce of a commodity rises or falls does absolutely nothing to the usage of said commodity.. Merely gambling..

[LivinLOS]

Well NY merc prices built to 70.8..

So I take it the 66 67 and 70 fills were all closed out by the 70.55 stop ???

Was it expensive ??? from the time stamp of the purchase post at approx 61 thats a good 8 - 10 %.. Of course from the 66 its a lot less but then what volume was done on fills changes everything..

[~G~]

Harmonica, I'd say this is the time to make a reply..

[jaidam]

55555555!! I notice Harmy is posting less and less.Even 1 baht a minute at an intenet cafe can seem expensive when you're living in a cardboard box(regretting trying to short the crude rocket).

Davie,

The luxury of being so far removed from reality is normally a result of a cushioned life on the dole/welfare.Am I correct?

Regards to all,

Jaidam

[Jai Dee]

From yesterday's thaisnews.com:

OIL PRICES WILL JUMP AGAIN BY 40 SATANG TOMORROW

BANGCHAK and other petrol companies have unveiled that the prices of all petrol products will be raised by another forty satang per litre, to be effective from 6 am tomorrow (August 29th, 2005).

The BANGCHAK Managing Director, Mr. ANUSORN SAENGNIMNUAL (อนุสรณ์ แสงนิ่มนวล), has stated that the adjustment on local retail oil prices is necessary in response to the escalating global oil price hike, following the hurricane that hit the Gulf of Mexico, and Indonesia’s increased demand for oil consumption.

This means that Benzene Octane 95 will now be at 26 baht 54 satang per litre, Benzene Octane 91 will be 25 baht 74 satang, Benzene Gasohol will be 25 baht 04 satang, and Diesel prices will be 23 baht 39 satang.

[baht&sold]

No wizard on these matters but it's remarkable oil shot up from $66 friday to just over $70 today on spec hurricane Katrina will create disruptions on the gulf of mexico supply.

Apparently the entire US gulf supply amounts to just 2% of world output and 25% of domestic output (cnn). What's remarkable is how 'tense' the market is at the moment (or speculative) and the resulting WOW in the pricing. What is real?

I'll keep checking back to you gurus here to see if anyone can add any sense as this is possibly the most significant economic factor facing all in recent years.Edit/ along with the elephant in the corner, China that is...

Meanwhile, I'm off on my pedal bike now for my mandarin lessons...

Edited August 29, 2005 by baht&sold

[Khun ?]

Why do I time out trying to get to the baht and sold site.

These day traders sure are talkers. Wonder if they do anything other than talk the game.

[LivinLOS]

I also get an error saying that they are doing upgrades..

[Harmonica]

It is time to use trailing STOPS to lock in profits . This is only the beginning and it is a handsome return for 20 days in the hotseat!

Therefore I've set in motion a trailing STOP @ 66.30 for ALL SHORTS!

I'm holding a total of 5 SHORT entry positions -- the 1st @ 66.3 and the 2 others mentioned on prior pages here -- I've added 2 more along the way. I'm not taking on any more positions unless the market makes a dramatic move to the downside and takes out strong supports just south of our present location.

The game continues, but since we are here for the long haul -- we're still on for my $10-20 call in the next several years; I will be posting perhaps 1-3 times per month.

It would be highly disrespectful to trivialize the magnificent power of the long uptrend in Crude Oil -- this is, without question, the most difficult trade I have ever initiated.

Whether we go up or down while making this historic TOP I will trade it as I see fit -- until a dramatic move initiates to the downside; that is where I will just plain HOLD my position for months at a time.

But right now, it is about not letting a substantial profit turn into a loss! Hence the Trailing STOP!

Adios. See you from time to time.

[jaidam]

Not bad Swedish!

I believe that oil prices (in the long run) can only go one way; up. Us living here in Asia see the growing demand every day. The average Chinese and Indian use 1 barrel of oil/year. In the Western world we use about 25 barrels!

Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then accept my challenge -- an open challenge to all here at Thaivisa & every expert worldwide. An OPEN challenge!

If I'm wrong it will be plainly visible via Thaivisa's date & time stamp on all posts! Dig?

Your reasons for thinking that Crude Oil will go up are not without considerable agreement from the "expert" community. Some have said that even $100 is too low and that we could easily see $250.

You can come up with a zillion fundamental reasons -- and I'm sure that "G", a renowned scientist in his own right, can add another quadrillion reasons.

But I'm saying you are ALL wrong! OK?

Let the games begin! Regards to you for playing.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It is time! The game is now in motion!

SHORT call @ $66.3 .

Additional SHORTS to be placed @ $67.55 & $70.05 ... if there is a sudden last ditch spike!

STOPLOSS on the first order and any subsequent fills is at $70.45!

Might have to juggle positions around depending on how right/wrong the market says I am -- but I am IN .

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica,

quote"It is time to use trailing STOPS to lock in profits . This is only the beginning and it is a handsome return for 20 days in the hotseat!" end quote

It is very dissapointing that you are claiming a profit after the oil price has slipped a bit.

Your above post(which I have quoted to remind you) clearly states that your first short was made at 66 then you ADDED to your short at 67.55 and then ADDED even more at 70.05.Stoploss was set at 70.45 which means you were forced to COVER YOUR SHORT when oil shot up over your stoploss to 70.80 or thereabouts a week ago.Bearing in mind the highly geared nature of derivatives this would have been a stonking loss, or if I may paraphrase you "it was an absolute reaming after 5 days in the hotseat!

Maybe next time dont post when you buy or sell something - merely wait until the market moves one way or t'other then claim victory.Nobody could call you a bull***ter that way.

I have lost all respect for Harmonica in financial matters after this chicanery.

[LivinLOS]

I also loved the fact that the 66 purchase appeared after oil slipped down to 61 or so.. Thats what I call market timing

Oil 10.. Gold 250 (someone ought to look at the famous historic gold oil ratio there methinks).. Deflation.. etc..

[LivinLOS]

I also loved the fact that the 66 purchase appeared after oil slipped down to 61 or so.. Thats what I call market timing

Oil 10.. Gold 250 (someone ought to look at the famous historic gold oil ratio there methinks).. Deflation.. etc..

[LivinLOS]

I also loved the fact that the 66 purchase appeared after oil slipped down to 61 or so.. Thats what I call market timing

Oil 10.. Gold 250 (someone ought to look at the famous historic gold oil ratio there methinks).. Deflation.. etc..

[Firefan]

Jaidam and Livinlos have pointed out the obvious.

Harmonica lost a bundle on this deal and had no gains what so ever as he got stopped out. At least if we follow his initial rules of the game.

The added time-machine market timing that Livinlos pointed out is also a bit sad.

Cheers!

[donx]

We've already attended Harmonica's funeral. Now he claims to have been resurrected or at a minimum on the road to recovery! According to my count the game doesn't continue; it has come to an abrupt end. RIP Harmonica!

[Darknight]

Shouldn't you guy's go play a video game or something

[Firefan]

Valid point Darknight! Cheers!

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Seconded

[jaidam]

We've already attended Harmonica's funeral. Now he claims to have been resurrected or at a minimum on the road to recovery! According to my count the game doesn't continue; it has come to an abrupt end. RIP Harmonica!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LOL

great thread guys!!Haven't laughed so much in ages.Now I'm off to get more pished to capitalise on the happy warm feeling generated by this mornings humour.

Think Ill short some beer chang at 60 baht a bottle then cover it by buying back at 80 baht a bottle generating huge profits.Oh,whoops,hang on,wait a second??Now Im all confused??Profit?Loss?? It was a total shafting.

Regards,

the uncharitable Jaidam.

[Firefan]

He,he - good one Jaidam! Cheers!

[Harmonica]

STOP level might be lowered to 65.03 area -- observe market action for momentum -- if against me, then I'll consider closing out the positions @ around $65.

Will attend to you chaps in the next 2-3 posts.

[Harmonica]

The game continues -- no wildebeast has the power to tell a lion when the game is over!

Here's my suggestion -- I started the game, you are the challengers; I'm the accused and stand alone; therefore its my choice of weaponry.

Here is what I propose:

Anybody who claims that I was stopped out between $70 and $70.45, please add your name and put your money where your mouth is -- USD$2,000 per person, sent to Admin. @ Thaivisa. I'll match the total amount proffered as a bet and be willing to lose it all if the proof I provide is in any way inconclusive. Admin & you can split up the spoils of war.

If I win however, each of you loses the 2g bet.

Virtual or real, an accusation, if falsely rendered, must cost the perp. No money, no honey; its that simple.

That's fair, don't you think?

What do you say?