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54
Zelensky v Putin
Indeed; there is a misunderstanding of Article 5, which actually doesn't compel members into an armed response, but merely to consider the event at hand. Article 5 argues about an armed attack. 911 showed that was open to interpretation; a Boeing airliner is not a weapons system, but it was used as a weapon. If fallout fell onto a NATO member's territory, those governments, could argue that they have been harmed, or attacked. Ultimately, Article 5 requires a political decision. Article 4 initiates urgent discussions if a member is threatened. The NATO leadership has already that there would be "severe consequences" if Moscow attacked Ukraine with a nuclear weapon. The US NSA has warned of "catastrophic consequences". Members of Congress have already stated that such an attack would be considered by them as an attack, and trigger collective defense consequences. Idiots who don't understand the NATO treaty think its some sort of automatic mechanism that if Moscow is clever, can avoid activating. Decisions are taken politically, and that is a deliberate feature of the Treaty, to strengthen deterrance, to blur what response might happen. A limited nuclear strike would be very harmful to Russia. It reveals their hand, reveals where certain assets are, how those assets were deployed. NATO might well respond, but quite possibly in a massively conventional way, reducing Russia's options for a response. In WW2, both sides thought chemical weapons would be extensively deployed. But they never were; even as the enemy were at the gates, Germany did not deploy its sarin and tabun stockpiles (and it turned out only Germany at the time had weaponised these nerve agents). Possibly Germany was afraid of retaliation in kind, because it wasn't sure what the allies had, but possibly "super weapons", even mythical one, was also a source of power. Remove the Emperor's Clothes; would Hitler have ended up swinging from a lamp post. At what point did the Italian opposition believe that Mussolini had lost his power? Russia keeps talking about its Poseidon system; autonomous nuclear powered nuclear torpedoes, probably about 2MT. Russia has plans for about 30 of these. Probably 6 so far, with no known sea trials. These are launched by "mother ship" submarines, and can remain at sea indefinitely, in theory. Deploying these is not something you do as some sort of retaliation; these are fast for underwater vehicles, at 70 knots or so, but much slower than a missile. The longer these things remain at sea, the more likely there is a technical failure, resulting in Blue on Blue, or mistaking Shanghai for LA. Russia's options to retaliate against a NATO conventional attack are more limited, ICBM only, which they know will invite a massive strategic response, and its not even a surprise attack anymore, so might not be "successful". A Russian tactical strike is less likely because it results in a weakened Russia, not a strengthened. Resistance to it inside the Kremline will likely not be because of some moral indignation, because likely it would dismantle part of Russia's guarantee of survival (as a political entity). The men running Russia are all Slavs. The government is overwhelmingly Slavic, but the population is 30% non-slavic. Its a racist state, somewhat different to the USSR which did have a genuinely diverse political leadership (a Georgian lead it for much of its history). As such, its at risk from ethnic civil wars, eg Chechenya. -
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There really is nothing new in this world ...
My father once told me: “you should never think that you are smarter than me, let alone your grandfather”. Unlike those gen Z idiots, I know that the quality of humans is steadily decreasing for many centuries. Everything that happens around me these days only proves that point. -
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Russian Economy running on empty
On the other hand, where is Ukraine getting its oil? The Moscow Times is an oxymoron.
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