Thaksin's Arrival In Cambodia Crushes Hope

[hammered]

Come on LP.. I don't think it matters all that much, and to be honest, if he's going to make a gesture like that then Abhisit is a fairly safe choice, Thailand haveing been close allies to the USA for decades. What is he gonna do, hug the Burmese or Vietamese guy? The USA has very friendly relations with Thailand regardless of who's in office, so it's good so see Obama make that gesture.

I know that some on here and some newspapers are trying to make 'Cambodia' and 'The Thaksin & Hun Sen Romance' to be a colossal news event no matter if they call it brilliant or treason, but in the real world it really is quite insignificant. And now you're doing the same; you don't really have to politicize every time Abhisit farts or goes to the bathroom or gets a hug. Not everything in the world is about Thaksin, Hun Sen or Abhisit.

This is true. The US will support any Thai government in power bar possibly one that comes from a very violent coup. Chinese hegemony is growing in Asia and the US wont let little things liek vaguely undemocratic governments get in the way of its attempts to remain number one in as many areas as possible. The US quite happily supports and describes as good friends quite a number of unelected governments with hideous human rights records. Things like a peaceful coup or a government formed by a party that didnt win anywhere near the most seats in parliament are not going to bother them. If Thaksin were to return they would similarly be on good terms with him and even if there were another smooth coup it is likely apart from a few comments that relations wouldnt be that different.

Edited to add: the pic though was a good one from a PR point for Abhisit.

All good points - and I agree 100%. Similarly, the pic is indisputably good PR for Abhisit and will be spun for all it's worth - and more besides (as we have seen). Here's a prediction (though I think we'll be waiting the maximum span of this government's allotted time to see if I'm right): it will feature fairly prominently in the Democrats'/Abhisit's ("re-")election materials come that time; after all, who could resist advertising "a little touch of Barry Barack in the night" - even if Obama will be gearing up to run for re-election himself by then?

The election thing I think is hard to call. I do agree that we should we come to an election and Abhisit is still the Dems chaosen one then the Obama pic will feature in at least urban areas. It could be come a classic alongside the ET Thaksin one of ages ago. I also agree the Dems will probably try to go for the full term unless they really fall for a sudden surge of support for them now which even if true (I have my doubts) probably wont last to an election.

However, my post is full of ifs and the chance of a political accident, politcal intervention or politcal event in that time remain high menaing the chanc eof some event changing occurence is as likely as the Dems staying in power although Abhisit does seem to have a somewhat charemd ability to ghet through a crisis and come out still in place although I guess that depends on backing. It all makes for an interesting few years. Lets not forget the reds are currewntly building to try and change governemnt before the end of the year and that also makes events unpredictable. Throw in the return of the yellows. Guess Im saying if Abhisit makes it to end of term or thereabouts and is still numero uno in the government I will be surprised and would reassess him at that point as a poltical operator of pretty rare talent considering the mines and pitfalls.

[animatic]

Khattiya admits sneaking across border to meet Thaksin in Cambodia

-- The Nation Nov. 16/2009

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

Looks like the attack dog needs a pat on the head and a milkbone.

Edited November 16, 2009 by animatic

[zzaa09]

The USA has very friendly relations with Thailand regardless of who's in office.....

Never a true friendship, never altruistic {both parties}. The historic Siamese-American ties go way back. A wayward step-brother/step-brother relationship.

[LaoPo]

And, who knows, maybe Obama asked Indonesian President Yudhoyono to have a word with Abhisit and Hun Sen to calm the present situation....?

After all, all those ASEAN leaders have to sit on the same dining table again, sooner or later; they need each other.

LaoPo

U.S. President Obama meets with Indonesias President Yudhoyono at the APEC Summit in Singapore *

And...a few hours later I read this:

Yudhoyono: Thailand, Cambodia can still solve border conflict bilaterally

Monday, November 16, 2009 17:46 WIB

Singapore (ANTARA News) - Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has expressed the view that Thailand and Cambodia should solve their border conflict bilaterally without referring it to an ASEAN forum.

In statements at the Marina Mandarin Hotel here on Monday morning before returning to Jakarta after attending a series of APEC meetings here, Yudhoyono said, "In my opinion, there are still opportunities for Thailand and Cambodia to solve their border issue bilaterally, and our foreign affairs minister will maintain communication with their Thai and Cambodian counterparts about the matter," the president said.

Therefore, he said, Indonesia would wait and see how things between Thailand and Cambodia developed while hoping they could eventually find the best possible way out of their dispute.

"Then, whenever in their discussions they agree there is something positive other ASEAN countries can contribute, we will certainly be ready to do so," Yudhoyono said.

He said said he had met and talked with both Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen separately on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Singapore.

"I don`t want to take any further steps because I met with the Thai and Cambodian prime ministers in a friendly atmosphere," Yudhoyono said, adding that at the meetings, he had suggested the two ASEAN member countries solve their border problem bilaterally.

"On the occasion I said it`s better for the two leaders to overcome the problem bilaterally without bringing it to an ASEAN forum or to make it an international issue because it would not be good for ASEAM as a whole," Yudhoyono said.

Tensions on the disputed border between Thailand and Cambodia have existed for some years but they increased since July last year, after Unesco granted world heritage status to the ancient Preah Vihear temple.

The dispute led to violence last April when soldiers of the two countries clashed twice near the ancient temple where two Thai soldiers and two Cambodian soldiers died in the fighting while nine Thai soldiers were wounded. (*)

Source: AntaraNews - Indonesia

http://antaranews.com/en/news/1258368406/y...ict-bilaterally

* photo source (29 pics, including Hun Sen with Thaksin):

http://www.allvoices.com/news/4621918-yudh...&filter=all

LaoPo

Edited November 16, 2009 by LaoPo

[animatic]

Ok, "landslide" was a bit hyperbolic a choice of word.

But it certainly was not Hun Sen getting the good hand.

Clearly these are well considered physical gestures on Obama's part.

A show of reaching out to certain ASEAN members. In terms they understand.

Of course having been raised for several years in Indonesia,

he would have a special feeling for the place.

Let's see what other ASEAN leaders get such friendly treatment

I notice that President Yudhoyono said NOTHING about the Thaksin issue.

Edited November 17, 2009 by animatic

[Steve2UK]

Ok, "landslide" was a bit hyperbolic a choice of word.

But it certainly was not Hun Sen getting the good hand.

Clearly these are well considered physical gestures on Obama's part.

A show of reaching out to certain ASEAN members. In terms they understand.

Of course having been raised for several years in Indonesia,

he would have a special feeling for the place.

Let's see what other ASEAN leaders get such friendly treatment

I notice that President Yudhoyono said NOTHING about the Thaksin issue.

OK, my last word on this subject before more eyes glaze over and more people slump into a coma - and now only because the points I made originally have been ignored. It's not "landslide" that's hyperbolic (= unjustified) so much as the fundamental premise of animatic's imaginative insistence that Obama was "clearly" signaling support of Abhisit (read Thailand) versus Hun Sen (read Cambodia). Thai national newspaper features "BIG" picture of Thai PM receiving friendly gesture from superstar US president - hardly a surprise. US president (known for his informal style) makes friendly gesture to ASEAN Chair - i.e. current "leader" of all ten ASEAN members at a time when US announces renewed engagement in the region. Does anyone else seriously think that if any of the other nine were currently Chair (OK, any of the other eight excluding Burma..... there is obvious subtext to that*) Obama's actions would be guaranteed to be any different?

Leaders' gestures (handshakes, hugs, smiles, hands on shoulders etc) plainly are significant between erstwhile/ongoing adversaries** - UK foreign minister Jack Straw even had to explain that his much-commented-on handshake with Mugabe was an unintended "mistake". Long-awaited public handshakes between Northern Ireland faction leaders, Brit PM with former IRA members, Egypt/Israel, PLO/Israel, almost anyone with Ghadafi, Abhisit hugging Newin (and bringing flowers to boot) etc etc..... yes, those are indisputably deliberate signals. Since WW2, when has Thailand in any way been a US adversary? To claim that this one of Obama's equates to any of the above - let alone for the reasons claimed - is IMO patently absurd.

* See also http://www.voanews.com/Khmer/archive/2009-...-09-14-voa2.cfm for a possible US domestic politics reason why Obama might also choose/be advised to be careful about how he's seen to interact with Hun Sen. Note that I say "possible" and "might" - to claim more I'd do better reading tea-leaves.

** And, yes, the very public and effusive warmth of Hun Sen's embrace meeting Thaksin was also no surprise and justifiably viewable as a conscious visual expression to reinforce his equally public statements (motives discussed elsewhere).

Edited November 17, 2009 by Steve2UK

[Steve2UK]

The long shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra

BANGKOK, Nov 17 —

The house with the high walls in an upscale enclave in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh is less than 100m from the Thai embassy.

The man in the house is a fugitive from his native country, evading a two-year sentence for graft and thwarting attempts to extradite him to Thailand.

Thaksin Shinawatra looked a little tired and drawn. He had flown in the previous morning and had already had meetings with family and friends, including dinner and lunch with his hosts, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and his wife Bun Rany. He was getting ready for a TV interview.

His presence in Cambodia had sparked a rift between Bangkok and Phnom Penh that is deepening by the day. He appears to have established an alliance of sorts with Hun Sen, who has his own annoyances with Thailand.

The arrangement gives Thaksin a foothold physically close to Thailand.

Somchai Wongsawat, who served briefly as Thailand's premier last year, and Yongyuth Tiyapairat, former House Speaker, called on him during his four-day stay.

About 50 MPs from the opposition Puea Thai party also travelled to Siem Reap to meet him. Thaksin, however, left Cambodia last Saturday and it is unclear how often he will visit the country.

When we met the second evening he was there, he was loquacious, slamming the current Thai government's anti-poverty programmes that are similar to his but have yet to inspire the loyalty of the masses the way his did.

One needed to understand how society worked instead of simply copying programmes, he said. On the table were copies of his latest book on eradicating poverty. He has become something of a 'scholar', he said, giving lectures around the world. His latest assignment: adviser to Hun Sen on a token salary of US$1 (RM3.36) a day.

"Hun Sen sympathises with me," he said. "I am being set up for investigation by all my political opponents, and they use double standards all the time, disband my parties one after another.

"As a friend, he offered me a place to stay here."

He admitted that, while he wanted to return to Thailand, the timing was not right. Were elections a factor, I asked. He would only say: "There might be a situation where I can go back. But...well, it's not the time yet."

He said he feared for the future of Thailand. When I pointed out that he was the one regarded as a national security threat by the Thai establishment, he scoffed: "It is they who are the threat that has brought the whole country into chaos like this.

"During my administration, change could be done by democratic means, but why didn't they wait, why did they boycott the election in April 2006, why did they try to disband Thai Rak Thai? All the mess is created by the Democrats."

Thai Rak Thai was Thaksin's political vehicle before he was ousted in a coup in September 2006.

As for Thailand's continuing political turmoil, he said: "I want this war ended on the negotiation table. I want to see Thailand as one nation."

Would he compromise? "I avail myself for compromise all the time," he replied without hesitation.

Asked what he would bring to the table, he became animated, saying: "Whatever, they are in power, why don't they offer? We are ready to talk."

He also said it might take someone "outside the system" to bring about a compromise.

Thaksin still enjoys very wide support in Thailand, but has polarised Thai society like no one else in recent memory. When he became prime minister in 2001, corruption rumours swirled around him. It was only a split decision by the Constitutional Court exonerating him of charges of concealing assets that enabled him to continue in office as premier.

But over the years, the other side of him has seized the imagination of many poor Thais. Across the north-eastern Isan region, local people have told journalists they did not care if Thaksin was corrupt, as long as he delivered results for them.

His critics, seeing him tour the rural heartland ordering projects and sometimes handing out cash from his own pocket to adoring children, called it Latin American-style populism. Economists said household debt went up. But rural people were in debt to government agencies at normal rates, not to moneylenders who charged 20 per cent and could maim defaulters.

But just as he is a hero to millions, to many others, especially the old-money elite, he is a ruthless manipulator who trampled on human rights and boasted about staying in power for 20 years.

Analysts have said he was too strong an alternative power centre, threatening the royalist-military- bureaucracy set-up that traditionally called the shots in Thailand as governments come and go.

That Thaksin still spooks Thailand's conservative old-money elite three years after he left the country says much about the 2006 coup d'etat.

Events since early 2006 have exposed deep fissures in Thai society, between those in Thaksin's camp and the older elite jostling for pre-eminence in the twilight of the rein of King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Powerful forces are against him, but Thaksin has been telling his followers over voice and video links that he will return "if the people want me".

At the end of our meeting in Phnom Penh, he said: "See you in Bangkok." It did not sound like just a polite goodbye. He meant it.

— The Straits Times

[presumably Nirmal Ghosh]

http://themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/w...ksin-shinawatra

[AoUdomAl]

Yongyuth Tiyapairat, former House Speaker, called on him during his four-day stay.

So the infamous Refrigerator was also there along with Sae Daeng. Such nice men to be associated with.

How's his attempted murder case of an elderly couple coming along?

btw, he was disqualified as House Speaker and subsequently as Deputy Party Leader of the People Power Party, he was found guilty of electoral fraud which caused that party to be dissolved.

salary of US$1 (RM3.36) a day

Over-priced

[zzaa09]

Ok, "landslide" was a bit hyperbolic a choice of word.

But it certainly was not Hun Sen getting the good hand.

Clearly these are well considered physical gestures on Obama's part.

A show of reaching out to certain ASEAN members. In terms they understand.

Of course having been raised for several years in Indonesia,

he would have a special feeling for the place.

Let's see what other ASEAN leaders get such friendly treatment

I notice that President Yudhoyono said NOTHING about the Thaksin issue.

And what sort of cards might the U.S. be holding...??

[LaoPo]

Ok, "landslide" was a bit hyperbolic a choice of word.

But it certainly was not Hun Sen getting the good hand.

Clearly these are well considered physical gestures on Obama's part.

A show of reaching out to certain ASEAN members. In terms they understand.

Of course having been raised for several years in Indonesia,

he would have a special feeling for the place.

Let's see what other ASEAN leaders get such friendly treatment

I notice that President Yudhoyono said NOTHING about the Thaksin issue.

OK, my last word on this subject before more eyes glaze over and more people slump into a coma - and now only because the points I made originally have been ignored. It's not "landslide" that's hyperbolic (= unjustified) so much as the fundamental premise of animatic's imaginative insistence that Obama was "clearly" signaling support of Abhisit (read Thailand) versus Hun Sen (read Cambodia). Thai national newspaper features "BIG" picture of Thai PM receiving friendly gesture from superstar US president - hardly a surprise. US president (known for his informal style) makes friendly gesture to ASEAN Chair - i.e. current "leader" of all ten ASEAN members at a time when US announces renewed engagement in the region. Does anyone else seriously think that if any of the other nine were currently Chair (OK, any of the other eight excluding Burma..... there is obvious subtext to that*) Obama's actions would be guaranteed to be any different?

Leaders' gestures (handshakes, hugs, smiles, hands on shoulders etc) plainly are significant between erstwhile/ongoing adversaries** - UK foreign minister Jack Straw even had to explain that his much-commented-on handshake with Mugabe was an unintended "mistake". Long-awaited public handshakes between Northern Ireland faction leaders, Brit PM with former IRA members, Egypt/Israel, PLO/Israel, almost anyone with Ghadafi, Abhisit hugging Newin (and bringing flowers to boot) etc etc..... yes, those are indisputably deliberate signals. Since WW2, when has Thailand in any way been a US adversary? To claim that this one of Obama's equates to any of the above - let alone for the reasons claimed - is IMO patently absurd.

* See also http://www.voanews.com/Khmer/archive/2009-...-09-14-voa2.cfm for a possible US domestic politics reason why Obama might also choose/be advised to be careful about how he's seen to interact with Hun Sen. Note that I say "possible" and "might" - to claim more I'd do better reading tea-leaves.

** And, yes, the very public and effusive warmth of Hun Sen's embrace meeting Thaksin was also no surprise and justifiably viewable as a conscious visual expression to reinforce his equally public statements (motives discussed elsewhere).

Maybe Thailand (and some members) is/are so exited about a hand on Abhisit's shoulder from Obama....the rest of the world doesn't care at all.

In the US (and the world) there's much more uproar about Obama's bow to the Japanese emperor.....

..speaking about a landslide......

Barack Obama bows (DEEP!) to Japan's Emperor Akihito

at second 10/11

LaoPo

[zzaa09]

I would think that America had come around to it's realistic senses and extend a little more humility than they usually model. If one peers through the fantasy, you'll find that the U.S has been owned.

[animatic]

I see it more as making respectful redress for all the disrespect Bush showed much of the world for years.

Also, how often does one get to meet a real Emperor?

Owned vs over extended on the national mortgage are two different things.

[LaoPo]

I see it more as making respectful redress for all the disrespect Bush showed much of the world for years.

Well, Obama bowed the same, if not even deeper, for the Saudi King Abdullah and I don't think Bush, nor his father, showed disrespect to the Saudi King...did they ?

The "interests" of the Bush'es in connection to (Saudi) oil are well known and I don't see any connection between Obama, bowing for a king nor emperor, and Bush cs.

I think the 2 photos above say enough I suppose.

IMO Obama's staff should inform the President and his wife a little better when to bow and when not to bow or put hands or hug on shoulders.

The First Lady's hug on the Queen's back was very inappropriate and "not done" according to to the Royal etiquette. A complete "miss" and the President and his wife should have informed a lot better by the Embassy and/or his staff.

An American President, bowing deep for a Saudi King and a Japanese emperor is most inappropriate as well.

Where's the counter-bow, out of respect for the President ?

LaoPo

Edited November 17, 2009 by LaoPo

[WinnieTheKhwai]

So.. I guess this topic is done. Thank Gawd.

[LaoPo]

So.. I guess this topic is done. Thank Gawd.

I agree, since the topic title doesn't make any sense (anymore): Thaksin's Arrival In Cambodia Crushes Hope - point of no return

There's always hope for good and better relations between two nations; examples enough !

LaoPo