Dubai Financial Debacle Will Make Thaksin More Desperate

[webfact]

Dubai financial debacle will make Thaksin more desperate

By Sopon Onkgara

The Nation

Published on December 1, 2009

MUCH has been said about the Dubai debt moratorium, whose ripple effect on other economies and financial institutions has yet to be determined. Thailand might have to bear some negative effects, as the country imports crude oil from Dubai. For goods and services, transactions will have to be adjusted to cope with the latest development.

But a well-known, notorious Thai citizen stands to be affected immensely, either through investment or personal predicament. Thaksin Shinawatra, according to news reports, has left Dubai for a trip to an unnamed European country. His purpose was also not disclosed.

The trouble in Dubai also means a lot of trouble for Thaksin, whose name and passport have been changed - from Thai to a strange-sounding name in his newly acquired Nicaraguan passport. For some years now, the fugitive has used Dubai as his base for investment and political campaigns to destabilise the Abhisit government, with marginal success.

Nobody knows, except for Thaksin, how much he has invested in real estate projects, financial and debt instruments. This is because he is unlikely to admit anything that will cast him in a bad light. But the amount will not be small, judging from the patronage the ruler of Dubai has provided for his refuge.

Going on his ego and eagerness to please the Dubai investment community and make his presence felt as a billionaire, his investments must be sizeable, if not all of what he holds as assets. It could be billions of baht, if not far more, due to his faith in the city state and its future - which resembled gold in the desert, in the eyes of investors.

His abrupt departure to Europe could mean that he must draw on financial resources, if not deposits, in countries that still serve as tax havens. His suddenly depleted resources make him look like an eagle with clipped wings, and one with less room to manoeuvre.

The reason for him calling off a planned rally in Bangkok last weekend must have been partly influenced by Dubai's problems, which could imperil his stay in the city state. If he continues to incite trouble by the red shirts, the Dubai authorities could be pressed by the Thai government to deal with the fugitive.

If Thaksin is forced to leave Dubai, it means that he cannot stay on to look after his investments and other assets, especially if those assets face the risk of being wiped out by the default of Dubai World. That means Thaksin's world will shrink again, especially with the warning from neighbouring Abu Dhabi that he cannot use the UAE capital as his base as he has done with Dubai.

With fewer resources at his disposal, Thaksin will feel more desperate, and that means his assets of Bt76 billion frozen by the Thai government becomes more valuable. It represents a larger stake than ever before.

That's why he will have to redouble his effort to reclaim that amount at whatever cost, including through political trouble by instigating the red shirts and other allies to force out the Abhisit government.

There have been disheartening rumours around town that he has offered up to half of the frozen assets to whoever is able to help him win the court case and reclaim the amount. Such rumours cannot be taken lightly judging by the huge greed of the people who are in a position to share the fortune with him.

That means we can expect more trouble, with revived street rallies this month. His desperate battle to get back the vast fortune from the state will embolden him to do whatever is necessary.

What Thaksin wants now is total freedom from all criminal prosecution, and amnesty from the jail term, so that he can travel to all countries as before. In terms of politics, he can let his cronies take control of the government via the election process. He will use big money and other tricks.

If the above transpires as Thaksin wants it to, it means more trouble ahead and an unpredictable conclusion. It will not be pleasant for us to witness. If street battles erupt, it depends on how the authorities decide to restore peace. This is an unsavoury prospect. Prime Minister Abhisit cannot foresee what will happen, but he must work to the best of his ability to manage the situation for the good of the country.

-- The Nation 2009/12/1

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Credo]

The article is pure speculation. He seems to be fairly savvy in his investing and my guess is he has limited exposure. I would tend to think he has money squirreled away safely and investment would be in S.E. Asia where he knows the landscape better and has more power and influence--or friends who have power and influence--over the outcome of his investment.

Money wise, he seems to be a little risk-aversive.

[lannarebirth]

That's probably all true for the most part, but it is just horrible "journalism".

[PeaceBlondie]

Pure speculation.

[badgerbailey]

How long until this newspaper goes bust itself and we are free from the complete load of utter cr*p that they report. Its worse than reading a students school paper most of time.

[SM7WGP]

C

[hammered]

Speculation. Mildly amusing. Will probably encourage all the Nation despisers to have a go.

[jayboy]

Sopon Ongkara is a notoriously shoddy and deluded operator, and probably somewhat deranged judging by his output.The mystery is not his utter uselessness which is indisputable but why The Nation has tolerated him for so long.Having said that, he does have a certain sociological interest in that he typifies a certain kind of middle class Thai, not very well educated, blinkered but obstinately clinging to an archaic view of the world.Ignore him.

[Thailand]

Appears to be absolutely dreadful biased unsubstantiated reporting, unworthy of a national newspaper.

[Asa]

It's the way of Sopon. The eccentric diehard has been inventing stories for decades, almost an anti-social. Everything seems to be wrong with Thailand. Hatre against Thaksin is very obvious, I used to listening to his fuming on air.

[geriatrickid]

I didn't know that Mr. Thaksin was a major investor in Dubai World. According to the financial press, most of the debt is held by Gulf States like the UAE The WSJ reports that New York-based hedge fund QVT Financial LP is spearheading efforts to rally holders of bonds in Dubai World subsidiary Nakheel, including hedge funds and other money managers in New York and London. The group has appointed London-based law firm Ashurst as legal advisor. No word if HSBC and RBS are participating. After the Gulf State investors, they are the 2 biggest holders of Dubai debt. The Dubai debacle is nothing compared to other middle eastern debt problems that went unnoticed as financial systems in the USA and EU were in crisis last year. There's Kuwait's Global Investment and Investment Dar, financial firms which are reported to have defaulted on US $5.5bn. And then there is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, where it is reported that two leading merchant families, the Saads and Algosaibis owe $16 billion USD.

You know, there's something to be said for boring dull Thailand. It's financial problems are nothing compared to the big wigs in the middle east and gulf region. Sometimes it's not so bad being "unsophisticated" and humble.

[Thaihog]

The Nation is only good for one thing, pet litter, for clearing up the piss.

The writer of the above article doesn't even know that Dubai and Abu Dhabi are in fact in the same country, namely the UAE.

The Bangkok Post is 10 times better than this rag...

[Jingthing]

The Nation is only good for one thing, pet litter, for clearing up the piss.

The writer of the above article doesn't even know that Dubai and Abu Dhabi are in fact in the same country, namely the UAE.

The Bangkok Post is 10 times better than this rag...

No, you got that wrong. There is nothing in the text that says the Nation doesn't know about the structure of the UAE. There is enough to attack in that speculative opinion piece without making stuff up. Abu Dhabi is the capital of a different emirate than the emirate containing Dubai. They mentioned a communication from Abu Dhabi, a separate emirate in their federation. It is not beyond the imagination that he would be welcome in one capital city and not the other.

If Thaksin is forced to leave Dubai, it means that he cannot stay on to look after his investments and other assets, especially if those assets face the risk of being wiped out by the default of Dubai World. That means Thaksin's world will shrink again, especially with the warning from neighbouring Abu Dhabi that he cannot use the UAE capital as his base as he has done with Dubai.

With fewer resources at his disposal, Thaksin will feel more desperate, and that means his assets of Bt76 billion frozen by the Thai government becomes more valuable. It represents a larger stake than ever before.

[basjke]

I never read the nation but a question to those who read it.Do they actually have articles other then anti-thaksin crap in their editions?

[Credo]

I am a reader of the Post, but I have few reasons to trash The Nation. Every paper publishes some crap.....but I do wonder why this article, which contains no real information made it to some level of importance.

Thaksin seems to be a survivor and I can't see him putting all his eggs in one basket, just like it seems he has more than one passport. My guess is that he has more invested in Cambodia than he does in Dubai.

[emsfeld]

Truly poor journalism. Was this published under the "Opinion" section or Breaking News :S ???????

[jonclark]

I never read the nation but a question to those who read it.Do they actually have articles other then anti-thaksin crap in their editions?

Errr..... No not really

[LuckyLew]

Sopon Ongkara is a notoriously shoddy and deluded operator, and probably somewhat deranged judging by his output.The mystery is not his utter uselessness which is indisputable but why The Nation has tolerated him for so long.Having said that, he does have a certain sociological interest in that he typifies a certain kind of middle class Thai, not very well educated, blinkered but obstinately clinging to an archaic view of the world.Ignore him.

Ignore him?

You couldn't

He sells copy and gets people to read his articles

Guess that is what really counts in this case

Thai journalists, news papers and web pages

all know, just write about Takki and people will

buy or click

Ongkara wins

[h90]

Appears to be absolutely dreadful biased unsubstantiated reporting, unworthy of a national newspaper.

It is an opinion.....opinions are biased

[hammered]

Sopon Ongkara is a notoriously shoddy and deluded operator, and probably somewhat deranged judging by his output.The mystery is not his utter uselessness which is indisputable but why The Nation has tolerated him for so long.Having said that, he does have a certain sociological interest in that he typifies a certain kind of middle class Thai, not very well educated, blinkered but obstinately clinging to an archaic view of the world.Ignore him.

Ignore him?

You couldn't

He sells copy and gets people to read his articles

Guess that is what really counts in this case

Thai journalists, news papers and web pages

all know, just write about Takki and people will

buy or click

Ongkara wins

That is true. It is also not only confined to Thai papers. How many newspapers have the specualtion on Tiger Woods sold? How many newspapers sell on the gossip surrounding the likes of Britney Spears and Michael Jackson? Factual reporting of stories if indeed there is anything that is factual, is actually dull, boring and even not read by many people.

The creation and constant repeating of memes that usually have very little grounding in reality is the most powerful tool in influencing how people think these days and has been used throughout the world for purposes even including western democracies starting a war on fake grounds. No different in Thailand. Politics is power and there is no way none of this pseudo acadmic nonsense of equally and fairly in a non-confronational environment giving people the sides and then allowing them to decide themselves is going to be allowed. If that model ever existed which I doubt it is long dead and buried. Murdoch and his ilk didnt buy media up across the globe to just make money although in his case he does but also to make sure people think the way Murdoch wants them to.

Media elsewhere in the world does the same but often isnt good enough to also make money.

[neverdie]

Oh dear.

[Samuian]

Speculation. Mildly amusing. Will probably encourage all the Nation despisers to have a go.

Sorry, but it seems that many "booooo'ers" in this thread simply missed the word "OPINION"....

and the fact that some people here are simply "pi_ed off"!

[brahmburgers]

Like most rich and super rich people, T can always resort to acquiring loans. He fished around for loans to acquire and finance dealings at Manchester City club, and probably every other biz dealing he's involved in.

That's one thing that increases the gap between the rich and poor. The closest the poor come to financing is likely a motorbike purchase (everyone has to have a brand new motorbike, as 2nd hand won't do). The % rate will be rapacious compared to the % rate for a loan to a rich person - probably a difference of 10 to 12 % points.

Many rich folks don't mind defaulting, and if they're super rich, the banks will do double back flips to try and and accommodate their pending defaults. Donald Trump has faced defaults several times, but always muddled through thanks to the banks crazed accommodations and his dad's money. The opposite is true when poor people can't meet a payment.

Bankers are bottom feeders on a par with people who peddle marginally edible sugar-soaked products to children on TV. Saxena played the game marvelously, as did some of Bernie Maddoff's bosom buddies (at least one of which got loans from Maddoff for 14 million dollars while the going was good). That guy just died in his swimming pool - just desserts for an overly greedy life.

When Thaksin dies, he, like Michael Jackson, will probably be in debt for tens of millions of dollars. But why would he care, when he's six feet under?

[Jingthing]

I do think that the possible connection between the Dubai financial meltdown is a legitimate area of interest and speculation. However, a great newspaper would have sources on the ground to do some investigative reporting based on facts, then report those facts, and then write opinion pieces based on facts rather than fantasies. For all we know the opinion writer's speculation will turn out to have some truth, but we have very little to back that up. So I agree it is one of the weaker pieces I have seen about Thaksin. That said, a better writer could have done a more credible job of making his points, even without facts, than this writer did.

Edited December 1, 2009 by Jingthing

[LawnGnome]

Although I am not a Thaksin fan (lol) I cancelled the Nation several years ago, in favor of the more bland Post. At least the Post tries to mask its hatred and contempt for Thaksin. In the Nation, it is dripping from the first page to the last.

[Samuian]

Although I am not a Thaksin fan (lol) I cancelled the Nation several years ago, in favor of the more bland Post. At least the Post tries to mask its hatred and contempt for Thaksin. In the Nation, it is dripping from the first page to the last.

Still, he has every right to be vile, everyone (who got the brains) has the right to be critical about certain "input"!

NOWHERE does the article or the author claim that it's all about established truth's and facts!

(A rumor exists for quite some time that Takki lost a lot of money in investments and speculation on Oil futures!)

The author of this Opinion is Thai, he has every conceivable right to be cross with someone who tries to derail the political system of the his country and keeps on mudslinging for his very personal gains - only because he has money!

Thailand and it's citizens, are unique and cannot be compared with anything we "over clever and know all" Farangs tend to promote as "always proven right"take for granted and believe that this is how it should be!

[ronz28]

Soooo Thailand itself doesn't have Dubai problems or like Japan circa 1990? Who is holding the paper on all those empty condos in Thailand with lights out in the evening? The banks? Any write-offs yet or is this ignored like in Japan before their stock market crash? Just asking as I don't know and inquiring minds want to know.

[Steve2UK]

Speculation. Mildly amusing. Will probably encourage all the Nation despisers to have a go.

Sorry, but it seems that many "booooo'ers" in this thread simply missed the word "OPINION"....

and the fact that some people here are simply "pi_ed off"!

Nothing further to say about ThaiVisa's bedmate except that if people really don't know it for what it is by now, then IMO they either haven't been paying attention or they just don't want to know.

I'm going to agree (partly) with Samuian. Yes, yes - I'm also going to go and lie down for a while to get over it . Why only partly? The Sopon piece does appear in the "Opinion" section on The Nation website - and is thus clearly labeled for what it is there. In the reproduction of it in the OP, there is no mention of "Opinion". As opinion, it is plainly not "reporting" - therefore a] it's pointless to criticise it for not meeting what should be standard reporting criteria - and b] people will draw their own conclusions about the rational merits and detail of his arguments.

But....... I do suggest that OP's like this one really should identify what the piece is - at least to separate opinion from what (if only in theory for The Nation*) is "news reporting". Perhaps Admin could take a look at this? I also think it's strange that these article OP's seem never to include a clickable link so that we can go to the source directly - is there a valid reason for that?

* I don't exclude the Bangkok Post from this. They recently introduced something they call "News Think" pieces which always carry a byline of "abc xyz : Reporter". They're listed in the Post's "News" section and are plainly anything but news reporting. As many have commented to the Post since this started, it's already hard enough to separate news reporting from opinion/speculation in much of what they publish - without creating a special hybrid category for yet more of it.

Edited December 1, 2009 by Steve2UK

[Publicus]

It's clear to me that 99.999% of posters thus far see the piece as the guesswork, wishlist and speculation that it is. TV needn't take any special action in respect to this piece or any other newspaper item. As bad as one could make out the Nation to be, even a child can see the piece is not news.

Edited December 1, 2009 by Publicus

[RickBradford]

The reason for him calling off a planned rally in Bangkok last weekend must have been partly influenced by Dubai's problems, which could imperil his stay in the city state. If he continues to incite trouble by the red shirts, the Dubai authorities could be pressed by the Thai government to deal with the fugitive.

That's why he will have to redouble his effort to reclaim that amount at whatever cost, including through political trouble by instigating the red shirts and other allies to force out the Abhisit government.

In the space of a few lines, the journo has managed to completely contradict himself.