Political Predictions For 2010, Anyone?

[virtualtraveller]

2010-2012 political predictions

In the near unbelievable world of Thai politics, I’m going to have a bit of fun and try to predict a course of events foe 2010 and beyond, here goes;

1. Jan: Dems survive a censure/no confidence debate in, but come under further pressure to contain huge protests from Red Shirts, leading up to Assets Seizure verdict

2. Feb: Red shirt protests escalate after Thaksin loses assets verdict trial, more phone ins (this time from Poi Pet), ISA has to be revived, Army clears red shirts off the streets

3. Feb: Jatuporn announces that dozens have been killed, the story dies without any substantiating evidence

4. Feb: Tourism slumps on unrest, UDD loses face but not support

5. April: Economy picks up but govt rocked by more scandals involving BJT party, protests more frequent

6. July: After holding out lamely, Abhisit calls fresh elections for October, meanwhile Thaksin indicted on two more corruption charges

7. October: Puea Thai wins most votes in election but less than 40% overall, BJT takes a pounding, Dems hold ground, smaller parties pick up MPs, Gen Sonthi’s new party gets less than 10

8. November: still no govt formed due to horse trading, eventually Puea Thai form govt with all smaller parties in coalition including BJT, on condition that 2007 charter is amended for reconciliation only

9. December – Feb: rapid replacement of high ranking government personnel, halt to corruption trials against Thaksin, changes to replacement for Anupong as Army chief

10. Mar 2011: economy picked up, limited PAD protests as Thaksin tells eveyone he will soon be coming home from Cambodia

11. May 2011: rapid attempts by Puea Thai to revoke 2007 charter and replace it with 1997 fails after coalition partners refuse to support it. Appeals and legal challenges move

swiftly forward through the court challenging the Assets Seizure.

12. June 2011: Thaksin flies home dramatically, police make a half hearted attempt to arrest him but give up after a mob of 100,000 red shirts protect him at the airport, he’s whisked away to an unknown destination and lies low.

13. July 2011: Massive PAD protests, govt invokes ISA, army dither on acting but are forced to after public criticism for double standards

14. August 2011: after a second attempt at revoking the 2007 charter fails and with Thaksin’s corruption charges coming to court, Puea Thai finish up with a 6 month exercise in repositioning loyalties in the Army.

15. Sept 2011: After weeks of open rumours, the Govt is ‘caught off guard’ by a lightening surgical coup by a faction supposedly loyal to Thaksin and the generals who joined Puea Thai back in 2009, the 2007 charter is torn up, and a temporary junta is formed, promising (within a day) that power will be returned to the people by 2012. National Anarchy is cited as reason for the coup.

16. October 2012: The junta re-instates the 1997 charter, announcing that all bans and verdicts resulting during the 2007 consitution period are null and void. Elections announced for December.

17. December 2012: Puea Thai wins by a landslide as opposition boycotts the election, a Shinawatra sibling is installed as new PM, with Thaksin having made widespread appearances (coming out of hiding).

18. December 2012: Massive street rally in Bangkok from PAD and other supporters, Red Shirts rally on opposite side of town, Govt invokes ISA, gets army to put down protests, they blunder and people die, chaos erupts, another tourist season ruined.

19. February 2013: With the laws reset and a more friendly judiciary Thaksin challenges his various Asset Seizure in court, gets his money back.

20. April 2013: Facing down massive civil disobedience and street battles between Reds and Yellow Shirts, PM dissolves house and sets up interim administration hoping things will calm down and suggests a govt of national unity.

[Jingthing]

A backroom deal is made to let Thaksin keep most of his money (in metered drips) conditional on his final exit from Thai politics, with enforcement teeth. Thaksin retreats to Montenegro and marries a Hungarian porn star.

[Ricardo]

A backroom deal is made to let Thaksin keep most of his money (in metered drips) conditional on his final exit from Thai politics, with enforcement teeth. Thaksin retreats to Montenegro and marries a Hungarian porn star.

Said Hungarian reveals heself to be a porn-again true-democrat !

Interesting to speculate, as the OP does, I think I'd agree that an election might well be held, in the latter-part of the year and after the verdict on DL's frozen-funds, and that no one party will obtain a majority. Beyond that ... who knows ?

[Gary A]

My view is that it will be business as usual. All the politicians are incredibly corrupt and the Thai people have absolutely no choice but to continue to elect corrupt politicians because regardless of party, they are all the same.

[givenall]

Mr. T final effort to get anywhere with Thai politics and recover his money will finally fail and he may or may not get some of his money, hence the end of Red shirts and also no more yellow shirts and the business of Thai Politics go back as before with no real reform

[phetaroi]

I feel like the OP just wants to foment unrest. What is the sense of such long diatribes that even he says are probably foolish. This is just another case of a TV poster wanting the worst to happen in Thailand.

[Latindancer]

He could just be old and cynical; seen it all before.

[EvilDrSomkid]

I think OP has forgotten to include one thing.

Without mentioning names, I think there will be an event in his time frame that will throw the country into complete chaos.

The one thing that holds this place together.

If I have said too much and mods feel it violates the rules, please edit if required.

[bkkjames]

I think in a year's time we can regurgitate this thread and not much else will have changed politically.

[ballpoint]

I think in a year's time we can regurgitate this thread and not much else will have changed politically.

Regurgitate it? hel_l, we can keep it going for the year. Throw in a few posts about politicians causing global warming and touching babies on the mouth and I guarantee it will last till then.

I agree with EvilDrSomkid. The OP gives a 3 year scenario, but misses out the one vital event that sadly will happen sooner rather than later. Once that happens then all bets are off. Apart from that, his predictions are definitely a possibility.

[mrtoad]

I think in a year's time we can regurgitate this thread and not much else will have changed politically.

Regurgitate it? hel_l, we can keep it going for the year. Throw in a few posts about politicians causing global warming and touching babies on the mouth and I guarantee it will last till then.

I agree with EvilDrSomkid. The OP gives a 3 year scenario, but misses out the one vital event that sadly will happen sooner rather than later. Once that happens then all bets are off. Apart from that, his predictions are definitely a possibility.

Agree with that.

[neverdie]

I'm predicting world anachy against lying cheating politicians with a series of assinations starting in the USA and a few other western countries as well, with possible a few copy cat style killings elsewhere.

Here for Thailand I'm predicting more UNPREDICTABLE events that will happen at the spur of a moment or the drop of a hat. (Probably look civilised compared to what happens, elsewhere)

Edited December 21, 2009 by neverdie

[virtualtraveller]

Yes, yes, the 'white' elephant in the room that no one can discuss, yet is likely to be the single most momentous event of the era. I deliberately left it out though it's worth mentioning that lots of what is going on right now is jockeying so that the right group is in control when the inevitable happens. How can you protest when you're wearing the wrong colour shirt for 12 months.

[bendejo]

The coming decade:

I'm waiting for someone in the US to come up with a "buy back the vote" movement. Since it is legal to buy off politicians in that country I could see a grass-roots movement emerging addressing particular senators on certain issues. Eg, Joe Lieberman, in this health care issue: Hey Joe, whatever they're paying you we'll offer more. Bake sales and car washes with the banner "Help Us Buy Off Our Senator!"

Taksin is finished. Methinks his latest tomfoolery was canceled due to lack of interest.

Christian suicide bombers. It's just a matter of time.

From the beginning, I've been saying that if Obama were to initiate a military confrontation (as opposed to acting on one he inherited) it would be with Venezuela for harboring terrorists. I expand that now, it might be due to trafficking in nuclear materials. The way Chavez makes buddy-buddy with Iran etc he's just building the case against himself. The US shoves a copy of the Monroe Doctrine down his throat while giving him a combat boot in the arse.

Argentina's economy collapses. Again. Then recovers. Then collapses yet again.

Afghanistan will remain a quagmire. Karzai has a long relationship with US oil interests and the Cheney crowd, and I assume Obama knows what he's up against.

Obama gets re-elected in 2012.

A yet even newer pandemic will emerge.

When Fidel dies the revolution will be over, smiles and handshakes all around with the Yanks.

Something or other disastrous happens in Brazil and the stench lingers long enough to affect the Olympics, maybe even having to cancel or change countries.

India fooks up and their economy is devastated.

Sarkozy doesn't run for re-election. He and his wife start an international escort service. Their motto: if you have to ask how much then you can't afford it.

Gordon Brown is forced to step down after being charged with murder when several people die of boredom during one of his speeches.

W Bush is back in the headlines when he's arrested for stalking Angela Merkel: the mama's boy is smitten!

Sarah Palin goes all the way and appears before the media relaying direct messages from God.

Thailand: nothing much happens.

[Alwaysright]

The coming decade:

I'm waiting for someone in the US to come up with a "buy back the vote" movement. Since it is legal to buy off politicians in that country I could see a grass-roots movement emerging addressing particular senators on certain issues. Eg, Joe Lieberman, in this health care issue: Hey Joe, whatever they're paying you we'll offer more. Bake sales and car washes with the banner "Help Us Buy Off Our Senator!"

Taksin is finished. Methinks his latest tomfoolery was canceled due to lack of interest.

Christian suicide bombers. It's just a matter of time.

From the beginning, I've been saying that if Obama were to initiate a military confrontation (as opposed to acting on one he inherited) it would be with Venezuela for harboring terrorists. I expand that now, it might be due to trafficking in nuclear materials. The way Chavez makes buddy-buddy with Iran etc he's just building the case against himself. The US shoves a copy of the Monroe Doctrine down his throat while giving him a combat boot in the arse.

Argentina's economy collapses. Again. Then recovers. Then collapses yet again.

Afghanistan will remain a quagmire. Karzai has a long relationship with US oil interests and the Cheney crowd, and I assume Obama knows what he's up against.

Obama gets re-elected in 2012.

A yet even newer pandemic will emerge.

When Fidel dies the revolution will be over, smiles and handshakes all around with the Yanks.

Something or other disastrous happens in Brazil and the stench lingers long enough to affect the Olympics, maybe even having to cancel or change countries.

India fooks up and their economy is devastated.

Sarkozy doesn't run for re-election. He and his wife start an international escort service. Their motto: if you have to ask how much then you can't afford it.

Gordon Brown is forced to step down after being charged with murder when several people die of boredom during one of his speeches.

W Bush is back in the headlines when he's arrested for stalking Angela Merkel: the mama's boy is smitten!

Sarah Palin goes all the way and appears before the media relaying direct messages from God.

Thailand: nothing much happens.

Bombs and missles will strike Iran,you can take this to the bank.

[EvilDrSomkid]

Bombs and missles will strike Iran,you can take this to the bank.

I really hope you are wrong.

Check out Robert Baer's book: "See No Evil". Very enlightening.

If Iran gets attacked by BO and friends, the US will be really bankrupt, financially.

The US must change tack and work on serious dialogue with Iran. The nuclear bomb thing is just a smoke screen.

Iran is the major player in the ME and the US must recognize this.

As for Thailand, I stand by my previous statement. And I see others concur. I shudder to think what will happen.

I watched RAN last night. The Kurosawa masterpiece based on Lear. Might the prelude to this kind of action be happening under our (large) noses?

[Alwaysright]

Bombs and missles will strike Iran,you can take this to the bank.

I really hope you are wrong.

Check out Robert Baer's book: "See No Evil". Very enlightening.

If Iran gets attacked by BO and friends, the US will be really bankrupt, financially.

The US must change tack and work on serious dialogue with Iran. The nuclear bomb thing is just a smoke screen.

Iran is the major player in the ME and the US must recognize this.

As for Thailand, I stand by my previous statement. And I see others concur. I shudder to think what will happen.

I watched RAN last night. The Kurosawa masterpiece based on Lear. Might the prelude to this kind of action be happening under our (large) noses?

Why assume it will be the US?

[bendejo]

Bombs and missles will strike Iran,you can take this to the bank.

And who will be firing these?