How Will Thailand Cope?

[way2muchcoffee]

Tuk tuk violence, redshirts about to start a massive offensive, yellow shirts whining about charter changes, civil unrest, military stocking up on riot control gear, dual pricing, racism, xenophobia, the perennial sin sod threads, judicial integrity, judicial bias, someone wanting to attend uni for the short skirts, civil unrest, southern extremists, aging monarchs, eyes and eyesight lost to medical malpractice, mysterious suicides, health officials embezzling, Prah Vihear, Burma, King Power, RCM51, frozen assets, media freedom, corruption, extortion, bribery, lack of media freedom, 13 year old girls getting gang-raped, 1 baht per day increase to the minimum wage, Hun Sen, airline execs and their excess baggage, Asean free trade, loan sharks, Hmong repatriation, still no 3G, mafia, BiB, youth suicides, the military, coup or no coup, Thaksin, carnage on the roads, trains derailing, buses crashing, and it goes on and on and on....

And that's just the stuff happening here in Thailand. Things going on outside of Thailand are even more disturbing.

I've been living and working here for 8 years. I love my wife and I enjoy my life. It all just leaves me a bit shaken. And at the same time wondrously amused and entertained. The pressure is piling on. It feels like Thailand, along with the rest of the world, is becoming a giant pressure cooker.

How will Thailand cope?

Where will Thailand be in 10 years? 20 years?

[MJP]

Just had a similar conversation with an expat friend I've known for 9 years, he's been out here 20+ years. There will be a Thailand, but will there be an economy . . . anywhere?

I'd say this is probably best placed to weather this, as long as they keep it together. The IMF debacle of '97 has, I think, set them up quite well for shutting the doors and surviving if needs be.

They grow plenty and can live simply. Same can't be said for the West.

Edited January 6, 2010 by MJP

[TheJoker12]

Thailand's big problem is that they have had a history of a military involved in politics. It is a dangerous arrangement to allow a fox to guard the hen house. what happens when you ask him to leave and he doesn't want to?

Edited January 6, 2010 by TheJoker12

[DegenFarang]

Ya me wanting to attend Uni here for the short skirts (I was joking by the way) is the same as 13 year old girls getting gang raped and tuk tuk drivers beating up tourists every other day

To answer your question: There will be a lot less expat trash and possibly a 20-30% decrease in tourism - however overall the economy will prosper relative to where it has been in the past, in tandem with most of the rest of Asia. Since it's Thailand though that will simply mean more money for the rich - it should present good opportunities for investors though.

Corruption is as likely to end as the Thai's aversion to you touching them with your feet. Some things will just never change.

Edited January 6, 2010 by DegenFarang

[garyh]

Maybe you should do some relaxation classes and stop watching TV and focus on enjoying your life. The more you worry about it the more you will suffer and the worrying won't change anything.

[PeaceBlondie]

It's a lovely day in the neighborhood. Thais will cope just fine.

[MJP]

It's a lovely day in the neighborhood. Thais will cope just fine.

Yes I think so. These people are far more adept at surviving and in many cases thriving in genuinely tough conditions.

Sorry the same cannot be said for the West, but they're about to get the opportunity to try.

[geriatrickid]

As the gap between rich and poor widens, the social tensions will increase. The battleground in the coming decades will be water resources. It will cause angry friction between China and its neighbors as China seeks to divert water. As water is diverted away from Thailand, it will impact the Salawin and Mekong water systems. With limited energy resources, Thailand will be dependent upon world energy suppliers and pay the price. I anticipate the 4 horseman of the apocalypse will vacation in Thailand every so often as they take time away from their residence in Africa.

[sokal]

Thailand will do just fine, your just another complaining expat that should move back.

[MJP]

As the gap between rich and poor widens, the social tensions will increase. The battleground in the coming decades will be water resources. It will cause angry friction between China and its neighbors as China seeks to divert water. As water is diverted away from Thailand, it will impact the Salawin and Mekong water systems. With limited energy resources, Thailand will be dependent upon world energy suppliers and pay the price. I anticipate the 4 horseman of the apocalypse will vacation in Thailand every so often as they take time away from their residence in Africa.

Now that is a good analysis of a real risk. Add to that we've had some pretty unrainy rainy seasons of late. Rubber trees up here in Issan are showing at least 50% die off. Could be a bug. More likely water.

[Meridian007]

As the gap between rich and poor widens, the social tensions will increase. The battleground in the coming decades will be water resources. It will cause angry friction between China and its neighbors as China seeks to divert water. As water is diverted away from Thailand, it will impact the Salawin and Mekong water systems. With limited energy resources, Thailand will be dependent upon world energy suppliers and pay the price. I anticipate the 4 horseman of the apocalypse will vacation in Thailand every so often as they take time away from their residence in Africa.

Ugh, I hate to even think about this. All of the ASEAN countries that surround the Mekhong realize that this may happen, and are trying to do what they can to stop it, but what chance does ASEAN have against China. I think Copenhagen proved how little control any country, (even the U.S.), or union has over the actions of China now.

I think that the best they can do is whine and supplicate to China in a passive way to bargain for this to not happen. I shudder to think of the price they will pay however.

If the world goes to $hit, the best we can do is to keep away from large cities, and stay somewhere that is defensible and has a fresh water source. There are a few places here that fit the bill, so anything is possible!

I try not to think about these things, but the survivalist in me can't help but obsess!

Edited January 7, 2010 by Meridian007

[MJP]

As the gap between rich and poor widens, the social tensions will increase. The battleground in the coming decades will be water resources. It will cause angry friction between China and its neighbors as China seeks to divert water. As water is diverted away from Thailand, it will impact the Salawin and Mekong water systems. With limited energy resources, Thailand will be dependent upon world energy suppliers and pay the price. I anticipate the 4 horseman of the apocalypse will vacation in Thailand every so often as they take time away from their residence in Africa.

Ugh, I hate to even think about this. All of the ASEAN countries that surround the Mekhong realize that this may happen, and are trying to do what they can to stop it, but what chance does ASEAN have against China. I think Copenhagen proved how little control any country, (even the U.S.), or union has over the actions of China now.

I think that the best they can do is whine and supplicate to China in a passive way to bargain for this to not happen. I shudder to think of the price they will pay however.

If the world goes to $hit, the best we can do is to keep away from large cities, and stay somewhere that is defensible and has a fresh water source. There are a few places here that fit the bill, so anything is possible!

I try not to think about these things, but the survivalist in me can't help but obsess!

Do you think the World is going that way?

[MrJohnson]

The sun wil continue to rise in the east and set in the west.

I think the OP has been reading too much TV and subscribes to the adage that 'Every cloud has a grey middle'.

Personally I like the original one 'Every cloud has a silver lining'.

Gotta go, the sky is blue and the wind is blowing so I think I'll go and fly a kite!

Have a great day everyone!

[WaiWai]

QUOTE (geriatrickid @ 2010-01-07 10:05:44)

As the gap between rich and poor widens, the social tensions will increase. The battleground in the coming decades will be water resources. It will cause angry friction between China and its neighbors as China seeks to divert water. As water is diverted away from Thailand, it will impact the Salawin and Mekong water systems. With limited energy resources, Thailand will be dependent upon world energy suppliers and pay the price. I anticipate the 4 horseman of the apocalypse will vacation in Thailand every so often as they take time away from their residence in Africa.

Now that is a good analysis of a real risk. Add to that we've had some pretty unrainy rainy seasons of late. Rubber trees up here in Issan are showing at least 50% die off. Could be a bug. More likely water.

Agree. A good topic. Please develop these interesting scenarios.

[Payboy]

Anyone who has been in the 4 hour+ traffic jams yesterday evening would say that Thailand is already beginning to umm "not cope".

[Latindancer]

It'll be much the same as the difference between 10 years ago and now. Human behaviour will degenerate to further lows, especially amongst city dwellers. What ELSE could happen ?

[purplehaze]

It'll be much the same as the difference between 10 years ago and now. Human behaviour will degenerate to further lows, especially amongst city dwellers. What ELSE could happen ?

You mean same same but different

[IanForbes]

10 years from now, Thailand will be bumbling along the way it is now and dropping further and further behind other emerging Asian countries. There is something nice about that... unless you are in business here. In that case you will be scratching your head in frustration.

[GuestHouse]

I think in ten years time from now Thailand will have come to understand that opening the doors to large numbers of aging foreigners has delivered a welfare disaster to their shores.

[caf]

10 years from now, Thailand will be bumbling along the way it is now and dropping further and further behind other emerging Asian countries. There is something nice about that... unless you are in business here. In that case you will be scratching your head in frustration.

Do you see corruption, democracy, and the poor-rich divide bumbling along or do you hope for change,Ian.

caf

[MJP]

I think in ten years time from now Thailand will have come to understand that opening the doors to large numbers of aging foreigners has delivered a welfare disaster to their shores.

How so?

Interested in your comment.

[caf]

I think in ten years time from now Thailand will have come to understand that opening the doors to large numbers of aging foreigners has delivered a welfare disaster to their shores.

Sorry, Don't follow that. Perhaps I misunderstand you.

There is no welfare state in Thailand, Aging foreigners pay their way

caf

[GuestHouse]

Don't confuse "Welfare" as in state aid to people in need with "Welfare" as in health, well being, self reliance, being in control of one's own faculties.

[SeanMoran]

I think in ten years time from now Thailand will have come to understand that opening the doors to large numbers of aging foreigners has delivered a welfare disaster to their shores.

Sorry, Don't follow that. Perhaps I misunderstand you.

There is no welfare state in Thailand, Aging foreigners pay their way

caf

Seems to me that plays some part in the cultural disaster that might be ancient history in ten years time.

[Jingthing]

I think in ten years time from now Thailand will have come to understand that opening the doors to large numbers of aging foreigners has delivered a welfare disaster to their shores.

How so?

Interested in your comment.

No problem for Thailand. Sick older people will either die here or repatriate. Those with money will spend their life savings dying here, good for Thailand. The retirement extensions are only good for one year at a time. I would put this at about the bottom of the list of Thailand's problems. I would say quality nursing homes for farangs and also Japanese are a good business opportunity. Of course, these would be for profit, those without the funds, as above, will die or repatriate.

Edited January 7, 2010 by Jingthing

[MJP]

Don't confuse "Welfare" as in state aid to people in need with "Welfare" as in health, well being, self reliance, being in control of one's own faculties.

An expansion would be appreciated. Whose welfare, the old farang or the family he's supporting, because I'll go with that . . . the more money thrown at some of these folks the lazier and less self-reliant they become. Doesn't help in the long run.

[GuestHouse]

I think in ten years time from now Thailand will have come to understand that opening the doors to large numbers of aging foreigners has delivered a welfare disaster to their shores.

How so?

Interested in your comment.

No problem for Thailand. Sick older people will either die here or repatriate. Those with money will spend their life savings dying here, good for Thailand. The retirement extensions are only good for one year at a time. I would put this at about the bottom of the list of Thailand's problems. I would say quality nursing homes for farangs and also Japanese are a good business opportunity. Of course, these would be for profit, those without the funds, as above, will die or repatriate.

Would that it was as simple as that Jingthing, but how many times do we hear from foreigners who, for their own good, really need to go home but hang on by their nails, often draining themselves and their Thai wife's families wealth in an attempt to 'extend the dream'.

People don't normally suddenly suffer the diseases of old age, they occur gradually - this together with 'hanging on' almost assuredly will lead to significant numbers of old foreigners living (and dragging their Thai families) into desperate situations.

Then there are the diseases of old age that rob people of their ability to think for themselves/care for themselves.

And let's not forget the 'late life families' of old guys who don't live long enough to continue providing for infant/young children.

A welfare disaster in the making.

[GuestHouse]

Don't confuse "Welfare" as in state aid to people in need with "Welfare" as in health, well being, self reliance, being in control of one's own faculties.

An expansion would be appreciated. Whose welfare, the old farang or the family he's supporting, because I'll go with that . . . the more money thrown at some of these folks the lazier and less self-reliant they become. Doesn't help in the long run.

Well if the basis of the marriage/relationship is the money the Farang hands over I'd not hold out much hope of the old guy when he needs his ass cleaning because old age robs him of the ability to look after himself.

[MJP]

Don't confuse "Welfare" as in state aid to people in need with "Welfare" as in health, well being, self reliance, being in control of one's own faculties.

An expansion would be appreciated. Whose welfare, the old farang or the family he's supporting, because I'll go with that . . . the more money thrown at some of these folks the lazier and less self-reliant they become. Doesn't help in the long run.

Well if the basis of the marriage/relationship is the money the Farang hands over I'd not hold out much hope of the old guy when he needs his ass cleaning because old age robs him of the ability to look after himself.

Agree entirely. I'm a youngster (34) and got all this silliness out the way early doors, but I do have retired friends out here whose welfare does worry me. You can't tell 'em . . . you know the rest.

[livinthailandos]

as from the OP. here all I can say

1. 10 years / 20 years how can anyone here really predict much when things happen here everyday, every month and every year.

2. all though with everything the OP put i do know the OP has a lot of free time and thought the posting really throughout.

3. How will any country in the world do when the loonies have predicted were all doomed to die in 2012. No need to worry about 10 years from now

joking aside sometimes thailand has good things about it. Yes its very easy to find all the bad things about thailand but there are good things. Aside from that Thailands major problem that prevents it from going further are

CORRUPTION

as long as corruption here is high everything else will continue