Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[MJP]

Yes. The Murdoch election killing machine has turned on Labour.

Just how is it that UK elections can be determined by an Australian crook?

I think a the UK will finally release a national sigh of relief once these have had the boot.

Brown hasn't even announced the GE date yet.

Who knows mush. But I do fear another 5 years of Labour.

Fear not MJP.

May is getting closer - it is not "if", it is "exactly" when.

Adios Gordy. The Sun newspaper has barely started to get it's teeth into Labour. It has committed to the Conservaties and it hates losing face more than an Isaan farm girl.

[chiang mai]

Thailand has two rather large problems about to happen (within the next 5 years)

The UK pound pretty much moves with the USD, with a few minor variations.

What goes down usually goes back up.

I predict 70Bht to the UKP within the next 5 years.

The UK pound moves pretty much with the U.S. Dollar? Really, well seeing the Pound now at $1.49 vs. the Dollar and remembering that the pound was $2.10+ vs. the Dollar around 2 years ago, pretty much shoots that theory down As far as Thailand having 2 rather large problems over the next 5 years is concerned, I think if I was holding Sterling right now I might be a bit more concerned about the Pounds coming colapse over the next 2 months Everyone likes to talk about the PIIGS countires and their problems for the EU and the Euro, and indeed they are very serious and they will damage the EU for years to come, but the dirty little secret in Europe is that the UK is in far worse shape than any of the PIIGS and those chickens are finally coming home to roost

Hi Vic, I take it you're still shorting GBP/USD, you were spot on the last time around when you called a bottom at 1.35, what have you got in mind this time around, 1.20? It's a much riskier picture on that front today than it was eighteen months ago.

[sokal]

However, if you turn to the UK economy most people I think would look at the currency and believe it is in the UK's best interests to devalue it.

But about 30% from recent highs against the Dollar/Euro and more so V the Yen is a devaluation isnt it?

Yeah if you like taking a pay cut then go ahead and do that. The UK blew it, they will be a poorer country in the future, there is no future in the pound, its done, history. Get used to it.

Lol, what are you the kettle or pot?

The pound is done long term, get used to it, quit dreaming.

[sokal]

However, if you turn to the UK economy most people I think would look at the currency and believe it is in the UK's best interests to devalue it.

But about 30% from recent highs against the Dollar/Euro and more so V the Yen is a devaluation isnt it?

Yeah if you like taking a pay cut then go ahead and do that. The UK blew it, they will be a poorer country in the future, there is no future in the pound, its done, history. Get used to it.

Go ahead and do what?

devalue, that is what. When you devalue, you simply take a pay cut.

[sokal]

Thailand has two rather large problems about to happen (within the next 5 years)

The UK pound pretty much moves with the USD, with a few minor variations.

What goes down usually goes back up.

I predict 70Bht to the UKP within the next 5 years.

I predict 25bht to the UKP in 5 years. Do you study macro economics ?

[roamer]

Thailand has two rather large problems about to happen (within the next 5 years)

The UK pound pretty much moves with the USD, with a few minor variations.

What goes down usually goes back up.

I predict 70Bht to the UKP within the next 5 years.

I predict 25bht to the UKP in 5 years. Do you study macro economics ?

Think you have a problem with micro economics, don't try the bigger picture and stick to counting your pocket money.

[neil324]

Yeah if you like taking a pay cut then go ahead and do that. The UK blew it, they will be a poorer country in the future, there is no future in the pound, its done, history. Get used to it.

Lol, what are you the kettle or pot?

The pound is done long term, get used to it, quit dreaming.

Yeh ok professor

[dmax]

the op is talking total bolls and rubbish !!! 47.8 today

[MJP]

I have 49.44 right now. Which rate are you talking about?

the op is talking total bolls and rubbish !!! 47.8 today

[chiang mai]

the op is talking total bolls and rubbish !!! 47.8 today

Dmax is talking total bolls and rubbish !!! 48.95 today

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[makescents]

Thailand has two rather large problems about to happen (within the next 5 years)

The UK pound pretty much moves with the USD, with a few minor variations.

What goes down usually goes back up.

I predict 70Bht to the UKP within the next 5 years.

I predict 25bht to the UKP in 5 years. Do you study macro economics ?

Not a chance, we'd be in the Euro before we hit that stage.

[whichschool]

Guarantee a referendum on membership of the EU and id vote for you ... i think this is when Cameron lost it by backtracking, but i also cant believe people would be so stupid to vote for Labour again. Though UKIP could be the Tories downfall, and play an interesting role in May and the BNP could do the same for Labour ... im hoping so!

I am not standing for election in the UK, and indeed sincerely hope that I never have to go there again. But have to admit that I'm counting on a couple of UK based pension schemes paying me some money in a few years. If those fail, then I might end up collecting my benefits from the social services too!

There is no limit to stupidity, and one of the most stupid things I have heard recently is that Labour should be allowed to win so than can stew in their own mess. Oh dear, oh dear, with that attitude there is no more hope left.

To be honest, there are no more political leaders in the UK that have any charisma or vision.....

David Davies who id have voted for, but then he went mad and quit to help potential terrorists, even though in theory i agree with him there were and are far better issues that would have got the public behind him .., but he'd have won this election at a canter.

Labour wont get back in im sure of this i even believe this could be the end of them as one of the main 2 parties (Im hoping Harperson is their next leader to guarantee this), however the vote for UKIP/BNP could sway things and could open the door to the Libs in a hung parliament who, i believe if the Libs were to get any power theyd make Gordon and Tonys mob look like in control visionaries which unmatchable economic prowess.

(This is the latest giberish from the Libs http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8565722.stm)

I like you wont be returning to England in the next few years at least, though im currently earning in sterling and all this money is going to be invested in an overpriced piece of land back there, as despite playing the property markets to perfection or so i thought the govt jumped in and changed the rules .... i like many others believe at some point inflation is going to make my savings worthless so it may aswell be thrown away on an asset. (so for now currency fluctuations dont affect me that much, apart from making Thai beer and lasagna tokens more expensive)

[whichschool]

Yes. The Murdoch election killing machine has turned on Labour.

Just how is it that UK elections can be determined by an Australian crook?

He's a brilliant businessman and has changed the face of television and sport in the UK much of it for the better, how the UK could do with more entrepreneurs like him ... you cant slate endless the govts ever growing army of civil servants then those who've made a success in the private sector.

Not sure if his paper actually makes that much difference in swaying people opinions there isnt that much political news or opinion in there, its just theyre the most fickle paper and is always willing to change allegiance to who they believe the people will vote for, though it seems theyre good at picking winners of late.

[sokal]

Yeh ok professor

Seriously, these are facts

[sokal]

Thailand has two rather large problems about to happen (within the next 5 years)

The UK pound pretty much moves with the USD, with a few minor variations.

What goes down usually goes back up.

I predict 70Bht to the UKP within the next 5 years.

I predict 25bht to the UKP in 5 years. Do you study macro economics ?

Not a chance, we'd be in the Euro before we hit that stage.

The UK at least has a history of liking a strong currency which is smart but that cannot continue in its current form.

[12DrinkMore]

Two comments picked up on the internet today, made me smile anyway.

the GS model

Imagine, for a moment, that you are someone with tonnes of free government money to loan. Here's how you make easy money:

1. make a loan to someone who can't afford it.

2. run around the corner to a bookies, and bet, at twice the value of the loan you just made, that the loan will go bad.

3. push up the interest rates on your loan to something that you know will cripple the borrower.

4. take home winnings from bookies.

5. give the bad loans to the government in exchange for hard cash.

This is exactly what Galdman Sachs are doing right now.

and

The fear that the credit-rating of the British sovereign debt is the next in line to be attacked by speculators.

If that happens, simple:

1) Gordon Brown picks up phone to Inland Revenue

2) Looks for the small 1000 - 10,000 of people paid in millions covering the period 2001-2008

3) Tracks down the big financial employers and asks them to produce lists of ex-employees etc.

4) Arrests them under a "product recall" - a product recall on those faulty financial instruments and asks for their bonuses back - or else seize their computers at home and find their stocks and shares and freeze their properties till the cash is taken off them to plug this deficit.

Will Self said if they had paid themselves 20% less in bonuses then the companies could have covered the balance sheet deficits rather than tax payers. Goes to show how much money they did pay themselves.

Call up inland revenue and track these people down they have taken Britain's resources for our future and will take away the comfort we were used to. Track them down and get on the phone to Halifax and the rest of them, Hornby and Goodwin and seize their properties and shares.

I love the idea of a "faulty product" recall for these faulty financial products. Look what Toyota have done, recalled several million cars and fixing the problem. Why do these financial instrument engineers manage to get away with destroying the economy of countries, even getting bailouts, whilst Toyota, based on a handful of accidents, accepts responsibility for its products?

[MJP]

Ah-hem!

Double dipper!!

* Sterling dips below $1.50 GBP=D4, down 1.5 percent

* Short-term players close out long positions

* BoE's Sentance: some risk of double dip recession

* Focus on next week's budget

[MJP]

Oh this is cool baby, yeah!!!

Best placed to weather the storm, because it's the right thing to do . . . hard working families . . . blah, blah, blah!

[sarahsbloke]

MJP

Your link does not give the information you suggested.

Though some of the charts are fairly meaningless, USA property prices have always been low due to the lack of population.

The UK is full of people and so has high property prices (take a look at property prices in Hong Kong)

[MJP]

Complain to Business Insider, not me.

UK property is in the biggest bubble ever, driven purely by lax credit terms (criminal in fact) and haven't 'crashed' in terms of GBP because of QE.

MJP

Your link does not give the information you suggested.

Though some of the charts are fairly meaningless, USA property prices have always been low due to the lack of population.

The UK is full of people and so has high property prices (take a look at property prices in Hong Kong)

[Abrak]

The UK at least has a history of liking a strong currency which is smart but that cannot continue in its current form.

Sokal,

The UK never liked having a strong currency it was simply the result of being the Central Reserve. As soon as they managed to pass on that responsibility to destroy the greatest creditor nation on earth, they devalued and inflated away all their debts.

But really Sokal you might have been in Thailand a little too long. Your theory that a strong currency is good because it is worth more or that devaluation of your currency is essentially a pay cut when of course you want your pay to rise is a very Thai concept and not very popular in the real world. You will for instance see it practiced in housing projects. If sales are slow, housing projects here tend to raise their prices. That way when they sell they will make more profit and sales to make up for poor sales at lower prices. It doesnt always work though.

It has its risks. Imagine walking into your boss and saying 'I am massively overpaid so I risk losing my job which would be disastrous so you must give me a pay rise for me to justify this risk.' It is axiomatic that appreciating your currency allows you to buy more of everyone elses goods and in terms of that definition it makes you richer. Now on the basis that everyone is trying to depreciate their currencies, dont you think there might be a small 'catch' in this argument.

As a general rule if you assume everyone else is a 'mug', you are likely to be the 'mug'.

The really neat 'trick' with currencies is this. What you really want is a massively undervalued currency that people think is massive overvalued for no apparent reason. If you can achieve this (which is obviously pretty magical) you can achieve both real value added growth and some currency appreciation. (You are not allowed to cheat with capital controls.) As a concept it is clearly ridiculous - imagine how difficult it would be to create a currency that is considered 'uncompetitive' and yet generates a current account 'surplus'. What these countries do I believe is give an 'aura' of 'incompetence' 'cronyism' 'worthless less' 'third world' 'political uncertainty' while they deliberately screw the 'greatest nations on earth'.

Of course, the other trick is to pretend to be the greatest currency in the world so that everyone pays for your inadequacy as an economy by buying debt. This is not so much a trick as a ponzi scheme that eventually ends in tears. In fact they eventually end up realizing that they are being the ones cheated as when it all ends it is far better to end up with worthless debts from a worthless economy than actually having a worthless economy as a result.

[sokal]

The UK at least has a history of liking a strong currency which is smart but that cannot continue in its current form.

Sokal,

The UK never liked having a strong currency it was simply the result of being the Central Reserve. As soon as they managed to pass on that responsibility to destroy the greatest creditor nation on earth, they devalued and inflated away all their debts.

But really Sokal you might have been in Thailand a little too long. Your theory that a strong currency is good because it is worth more or that devaluation of your currency is essentially a pay cut when of course you want your pay to rise is a very Thai concept and not very popular in the real world. You will for instance see it practiced in housing projects. If sales are slow, housing projects here tend to raise their prices. That way when they sell they will make more profit and sales to make up for poor sales at lower prices. It doesnt always work though.

It has its risks. Imagine walking into your boss and saying 'I am massively overpaid so I risk losing my job which would be disastrous so you must give me a pay rise for me to justify this risk.' It is axiomatic that appreciating your currency allows you to buy more of everyone elses goods and in terms of that definition it makes you richer. Now on the basis that everyone is trying to depreciate their currencies, dont you think there might be a small 'catch' in this argument.

As a general rule if you assume everyone else is a 'mug', you are likely to be the 'mug'.

The really neat 'trick' with currencies is this. What you really want is a massively undervalued currency that people think is massive overvalued for no apparent reason. If you can achieve this (which is obviously pretty magical) you can achieve both real value added growth and some currency appreciation. (You are not allowed to cheat with capital controls.) As a concept it is clearly ridiculous - imagine how difficult it would be to create a currency that is considered 'uncompetitive' and yet generates a current account 'surplus'. What these countries do I believe is give an 'aura' of 'incompetence' 'cronyism' 'worthless less' 'third world' 'political uncertainty' while they deliberately screw the 'greatest nations on earth'.

Of course, the other trick is to pretend to be the greatest currency in the world so that everyone pays for your inadequacy as an economy by buying debt. This is not so much a trick as a ponzi scheme that eventually ends in tears. In fact they eventually end up realizing that they are being the ones cheated as when it all ends it is far better to end up with worthless debts from a worthless economy than actually having a worthless economy as a result.

My views have nothing to do with being in Thailand, they are strictly views from Austrian economics. It was very simple when global trade was settled in gold. Just look at Germany and hitler. Hitler ran a closed country and stole gold to pay for exports that he needed.

[sarahsbloke]

Sokal loses "Godwin's Law"

[SPQR]

Mostly this thread drags on about damage to the GBP done by british debt market and deficit threat to government spending policies.

All valid enough, but the THB has been rising against the USD and the AUD, as well as the JPY. THB is rising, and Thai domestic economy is experiencing inflation. Thai deficit and debt market are not running toward recession, either.

Seems to this reader to have all the makings of "Dutch Disease": Inflation fueled by the Thai stock market offering up too-sweet securities to foreign investors. Big big inflow of foreign currencies is driving up the value of the THB and fueling internal inflation. Thai central banking has not countered this by acquiring a huge dollar or RMB position, mostly because their policies are lacking a way to stabilize the weak Thai credit exchange in the process, and risk losing their government's control of long-term rates to stronger international market influences to drive investment offshore as Thai rates fall, which the central governemt cannot also do without great risk of political blowback from their party base.

The cash surplus is masking some serious troubles in the SET, but the exchange price should continue to rise as long as the surplus persists.

[JimsKnight]

The UK at least has a history of liking a strong currency which is smart but that cannot continue in its current form.

Sokal,

The UK never liked having a strong currency it was simply the result of being the Central Reserve. As soon as they managed to pass on that responsibility to destroy the greatest creditor nation on earth, they devalued and inflated away all their debts.

But really Sokal you might have been in Thailand a little too long. Your theory that a strong currency is good because it is worth more or that devaluation of your currency is essentially a pay cut when of course you want your pay to rise is a very Thai concept and not very popular in the real world. You will for instance see it practiced in housing projects. If sales are slow, housing projects here tend to raise their prices. That way when they sell they will make more profit and sales to make up for poor sales at lower prices. It doesnt always work though.

It has its risks. Imagine walking into your boss and saying 'I am massively overpaid so I risk losing my job which would be disastrous so you must give me a pay rise for me to justify this risk.' It is axiomatic that appreciating your currency allows you to buy more of everyone elses goods and in terms of that definition it makes you richer. Now on the basis that everyone is trying to depreciate their currencies, dont you think there might be a small 'catch' in this argument.

As a general rule if you assume everyone else is a 'mug', you are likely to be the 'mug'.

The really neat 'trick' with currencies is this. What you really want is a massively undervalued currency that people think is massive overvalued for no apparent reason. If you can achieve this (which is obviously pretty magical) you can achieve both real value added growth and some currency appreciation. (You are not allowed to cheat with capital controls.) As a concept it is clearly ridiculous - imagine how difficult it would be to create a currency that is considered 'uncompetitive' and yet generates a current account 'surplus'. What these countries do I believe is give an 'aura' of 'incompetence' 'cronyism' 'worthless less' 'third world' 'political uncertainty' while they deliberately screw the 'greatest nations on earth'.

Of course, the other trick is to pretend to be the greatest currency in the world so that everyone pays for your inadequacy as an economy by buying debt. This is not so much a trick as a ponzi scheme that eventually ends in tears. In fact they eventually end up realizing that they are being the ones cheated as when it all ends it is far better to end up with worthless debts from a worthless economy than actually having a worthless economy as a result.

My views have nothing to do with being in Thailand, they are strictly views from Austrian economics. It was very simple when global trade was settled in gold. Just look at Germany and hitler. Hitler ran a closed country and stole gold to pay for exports that he needed.

OT but I think you'll find Hitler borrowed cash from the zionists, bankers, profiteers etc in Switzerland, USA and other elite powers and basically said 'I'm keeping the lot'

The £ is on a big rollercoaster ride and taking a dive with quite a few other currencies.

[chiang mai]

The markets are getting ready for Thursday, are you?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1...poll-swoop.html

[VegasVic]

Thailand has two rather large problems about to happen (within the next 5 years)

The UK pound pretty much moves with the USD, with a few minor variations.

What goes down usually goes back up.

I predict 70Bht to the UKP within the next 5 years.

The UK pound moves pretty much with the U.S. Dollar? Really, well seeing the Pound now at $1.49 vs. the Dollar and remembering that the pound was $2.10+ vs. the Dollar around 2 years ago, pretty much shoots that theory down As far as Thailand having 2 rather large problems over the next 5 years is concerned, I think if I was holding Sterling right now I might be a bit more concerned about the Pounds coming colapse over the next 2 months Everyone likes to talk about the PIIGS countires and their problems for the EU and the Euro, and indeed they are very serious and they will damage the EU for years to come, but the dirty little secret in Europe is that the UK is in far worse shape than any of the PIIGS and those chickens are finally coming home to roost

Hi Vic, I take it you're still shorting GBP/USD, you were spot on the last time around when you called a bottom at 1.35, what have you got in mind this time around, 1.20? It's a much riskier picture on that front today than it was eighteen months ago.

Chiangmai, Shorting the Pound and Euro vs. Dollar and Yen has been very good to me (the euro more so recently) I have taken some nice profits off the table the last couple days, but will reopen positions once again, the Euro has further to fall and the Pound will drop as well but not as severely as the Euro (at least not in the near term). It looks as though the rumors of possible EU central bank intervention yesterday is correct, but this will only give a false sense of support to the Euro. When the EU bankers are finished with their attempts to prop up the euro then I will reenter the trade.

[jay1980]

The new British Goverment starting to get serious about cuts in public spending already, will this have any affect on the exchange rate?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle7134040.ece

[jay1980]

The new British Goverment starting to get serious about cuts in public spending already, will this have any affect on the exchange rate?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle7134040.ece

[phutoie2]

Do 'nt think so!. Some Brit ex-pats were thinking the pound would immediatley start to strengthen on a Conservative victory.

Hmmnn what happened?