Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[chiang mai]

The UK is up front, as i have said many Copuntrys are in de nile. I supose you could say what is up front in this day and age,

Is dat de river Nile you be talkin about?

[chiang mai]

So, in a nutshell, are we currently talking Dollar strength or Sterling weakness ?

Mostly Sterling weakness.

[chiang mai]

It's going to 40. It will stay there for years.

Been said before but there does seem a concerted effort by BoE to drive the pound as low as it can possibly go. Not a bad strategy given that there is buxxer else that can be done until we have a gov. willing to make the odd cut here and there, but it pains me to see the pound in such dire straits, especially when out here there is a concerted effort to drive the currency upwards. Ooch! very painful.

No! I always said 45 as it's very lowest, 40 is ludicrous and remember part of the reason is the baht is at the top of its cycle.

At a guess I'd say 48, and not for years.

Ironically, probably the medicine that guarantees the UK safety. Blxxdy upsettiing for yours truly.

Your estimates on the range that THB might trade in change over time, first it was a bottom of 55, then 50 and now 45, with your latest "estimate" you're only 5 baht away from my statement of a year ago where I said 40, plus or minus 10%, remember how many months and how vehemently you fought against that idea!

Anyway, what makes you think that THB is at the top of any cycle and which cycle is that prey tell, is that the "Mommysboy I think sounds good so I'll say it cycle"?

[chiang mai]

I can agree with many of the points 12DM has posted but doing away with the BOE isn't one of them, babies and bathwater spring to mind! But anyway, I see Merv has been giving interviews again and as usual his gilded tones have had a negative impact on GBP - shame really, I was quite hopeful this morning that Sterling was starting to recover slightly and I had actually thought I might swap some more GBP into SGD before things really get nasty, little chance now however.

Where was you going to open an account in SGD?

Citibank do free SGD accounts, HSBC small fee i think. Anyone have any experience of the spread these banks sting you when converting.

I use an HSBC multi currency account in Hong Kong, no need to open a Singapore account.

[ChiangMaiFun]

My costs are down to under £6k for quite comfortable living. Just me and 6 year old daughter, mother-in-law and father-in-law, it works well now. Yes, I wouldn't trust Thai figures either. The local shopkeeper here reports New Year beer sales down from 400 boxes the previous year to 40 boxes this year, he used to sell 35 mopeds a month, hardly any now, less than 5 anyway.

The irony is my own business is doing really well. The problem I have is the Thais I deal with are just not holding stock at the moment as business is so bad, whereas demand from UK is strong. So I look at the headlines and wonder where the truth lies.

I honestly think Thai figs. are utter BS.

But trends are trends, and I think we will see a combo of weak pound and stong baht for a while.

Yes cost of living still cheap out here if you can live wisely (stay single) otherwise cost of living spirals and as I say on other threads, Thais are just not earning at present.

What a mindfrig! TIT I guess!

£6K? 6 thousand Sterling per year?

hang on - your budget is 25,000 THB a month? with a daughter and 2 in-laws? how do you do it?

[Naam]

Your estimates on the range that THB might trade in change over time, first it was a bottom of 55, then 50 and now 45, with your latest "estimate" you're only 5 baht away from my statement of a year ago where I said 40, plus or minus 10%, remember how many months and how vehemently you fought against that idea!

Anyway, what makes you think that THB is at the top of any cycle and which cycle is that prey tell, is that the "Mommysboy I think sounds good so I'll say it cycle"?

perhaps one like this?

[ChiangMaiFun]

My costs are down to under £6k for quite comfortable living. Just me and 6 year old daughter, mother-in-law and father-in-law, it works well now. Yes, I wouldn't trust Thai figures either. The local shopkeeper here reports New Year beer sales down from 400 boxes the previous year to 40 boxes this year, he used to sell 35 mopeds a month, hardly any now, less than 5 anyway.

The irony is my own business is doing really well. The problem I have is the Thais I deal with are just not holding stock at the moment as business is so bad, whereas demand from UK is strong. So I look at the headlines and wonder where the truth lies.

I honestly think Thai figs. are utter BS.

But trends are trends, and I think we will see a combo of weak pound and stong baht for a while.

Yes cost of living still cheap out here if you can live wisely (stay single) otherwise cost of living spirals and as I say on other threads, Thais are just not earning at present.

What a mindfrig! TIT I guess!

£6K? 6 thousand Sterling per year?

hang on - your budget is 25,000 THB a month? with a daughter and 2 in-laws? how do you do it?

Sorry - got into this debate late and just trawled through the posts - so got your spreadsheet - still seems like a megere life mate - hope things improve for you.

Is everyone REALLY saying we are going sub 50? for how long? 2 years? 5 years? so 45 is the generally held 'low'? the sh1t will really hit the fan for many here on low budgets if it hits 45 and sticks

[chiang mai]

Clearly nobody knows for sure where the exchange rate will bottom out, in the short term the outcome of the UK elections remains the wild card in all of this and a second card might be any bubble that is forming in the region, particularly in China. If the elections return a hung Parliament then yes, 45 is a very real possibility. Will it go sub 50 you ask, I think there's a very good chance it will, will it bottom at 45, nobody knows but honestly I doubt it. How long will it stay there, again, who knows. I think the very clear message however is that things have changed and when people start to do their future planning, be it a move to Thailand or planning about how they will remain in Thailand (assuming they use GBP as their primary currency), such planning to need to be done using an exchange rate of around 40 or 45, to use current rates or higher would be very silly indeed.

Edited February 24, 2010 by chiang mai

[ChiangMaiFun]

Clearly nobody knows for sure where the exchange rate will bottom out, in the short term the outcome of the UK elections remains the wild card in all of this and a second card might be any bubble that is forming in the region, particularly in China. Will it go sub 50 you ask, I think there's a very good chance it will, will it bottom at 45, nobody knows but honestly I doubt it. How long will it stay there, again, who knows. I think the very clear message however is that things have changed and when people start to do their future planning, be it a move to Thailand or planning about how they will remain in Thailand (assuming they use GBP as their primary currency), such planning to need to be done using an exchange rate of around 40 or 45, to use current rates or higher would be very silly indeed.

Hi - yes sensible approach... personally I try and get the majority of my Thai income in THB (through rents) and my advice to anyone wanting to live here is to get 'into' the local economy and then rate changes are, largely, academic - however, a caveate, only move a proportion here for spreading risk (I have about 50% here and rely on the Thai 50% for my monthly income - changed in the low 50s though which was painful - but once it's done it's done and I have no intention of changing back). I get 10% gross and 8% net.

[chiang mai]

Clearly nobody knows for sure where the exchange rate will bottom out, in the short term the outcome of the UK elections remains the wild card in all of this and a second card might be any bubble that is forming in the region, particularly in China. Will it go sub 50 you ask, I think there's a very good chance it will, will it bottom at 45, nobody knows but honestly I doubt it. How long will it stay there, again, who knows. I think the very clear message however is that things have changed and when people start to do their future planning, be it a move to Thailand or planning about how they will remain in Thailand (assuming they use GBP as their primary currency), such planning to need to be done using an exchange rate of around 40 or 45, to use current rates or higher would be very silly indeed.

changed in the low 50s though which was painful - but once it's done it's done

That is so true, everyone agonises over the exchange rate and the best time to make the trade, hours are spent worrying about whether to do it now or do it later, will the rate improve or will it not - the stress of it all probably wipes days if not weeks off people's lives. But once it's done it's done and I for one rarely if ever look back and think about that particular trade ever again, there's a lesson there I'm sure.

[mommysboy]

Your estimates on the range that THB might trade in change over time, first it was a bottom of 55, then 50 and now 45, with your latest "estimate" you're only 5 baht away from my statement of a year ago where I said 40, plus or minus 10%, remember how many months and how vehemently you fought against that idea!

Anyway, what makes you think that THB is at the top of any cycle and which cycle is that prey tell, is that the "Mommysboy I think sounds good so I'll say it cycle"?

perhaps one like this?

Nice set of wheels you got there! Bit of a death trap after the first bottle of Chang Extra I'd guess.

A penny farthing! that's .75p less than I'd estimate as the worth of your postings.

[mommysboy]

CM- I always stated 45 as an absolute floor! My average was about 53 and yes I said it could go to 58.

We all had to revise as the pound plummeted.

But you were saying 40 and 35!

Hasn't the baht also appreciated against a basket of Asean currencies? Ok not being driven upwards by the Govt., but there are unseen parties making a pretty penny out of this. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if a huge amount of money is not being converted in to dollars ready to make a re-appearance when the baht depreciates again.

[Serene]

I think chiangmaifun has got the analysis exactly right on GBP/THB. Many of us who were here pre-1997 and transferred money at 35-40 baht range have a longer term perspective on the GBP/THB rate . It never ceased to amaze me that that alot of the post 98 farang influx thought 65-75 baht was fixed in stone if not a god given right. I've always been a fan of the investment concept 'reversion to the mean' which is what is happening now. Look at the charts for the last 30 years

to find the mean-40 baht seems reasonable.

[chiang mai]

CM- I always stated 45 as an absolute floor! My average was about 53 and yes I said it could go to 58.

We all had to revise as the pound plummeted.

But you were saying 40 and 35!

Hasn't the baht also appreciated against a basket of Asean currencies? Ok not being driven upwards by the Govt., but there are unseen parties making a pretty penny out of this. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if a huge amount of money is not being converted in to dollars ready to make a re-appearance when the baht depreciates again.

And my story hasn't and doesn't change, 35 to the Pound within ten years is what I have always said, lately though I think the time frame may well be shorter than that.

[neil324]

I can agree with many of the points 12DM has posted but doing away with the BOE isn't one of them, babies and bathwater spring to mind! But anyway, I see Merv has been giving interviews again and as usual his gilded tones have had a negative impact on GBP - shame really, I was quite hopeful this morning that Sterling was starting to recover slightly and I had actually thought I might swap some more GBP into SGD before things really get nasty, little chance now however.

Where was you going to open an account in SGD?

Citibank do free SGD accounts, HSBC small fee i think. Anyone have any experience of the spread these banks sting you when converting.

I use an HSBC multi currency account in Hong Kong, no need to open a Singapore account.

Whats thier mark up like when converting from Sterling?

[chiang mai]

I can agree with many of the points 12DM has posted but doing away with the BOE isn't one of them, babies and bathwater spring to mind! But anyway, I see Merv has been giving interviews again and as usual his gilded tones have had a negative impact on GBP - shame really, I was quite hopeful this morning that Sterling was starting to recover slightly and I had actually thought I might swap some more GBP into SGD before things really get nasty, little chance now however.

Where was you going to open an account in SGD?

Citibank do free SGD accounts, HSBC small fee i think. Anyone have any experience of the spread these banks sting you when converting.

I use an HSBC multi currency account in Hong Kong, no need to open a Singapore account.

Whats thier mark up like when converting from Sterling?

http://www.hsbc.com.hk/1/2/hk/investments/mkt-info/fcy/rates but slightly better for Premier customers and no commission charge but if coming from GBP you have to go via HKD first then on to SGD. That probably sounds expensive and I agree it's not the cheapest route but the difference between buy and sell GBP/HKD is only two cents and right now, it's a convenience thing.

[12DrinkMore]

I can agree with many of the points 12DM has posted but doing away with the BOE isn't one of them, babies and bathwater spring to mind! But anyway, I see Merv has been giving interviews again and as usual his gilded tones have had a negative impact on GBP -

What purpose does the BoE serve?

From the website

Core Purpose 1 - Monetary Stability

Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the decisions delegated to the Monetary Policy Committee, explaining those decisions transparently and implementing them effectively in the money markets.

Core Purpose 2 - Financial Stability

Financial stability entails detecting and reducing threats to the financial system as a whole. Such threats are detected through the Bank's surveillance and market intelligence functions. They are reduced by strengthening infrastructure, and by financial and other operations, at home and abroad, including, in exceptional circumstances, by acting as the lender of last resort.

Let's have a judgement

Core Purpose 1 - Monetary Stability

Result: Total failure. A massive housing price boom and 30% devaluation in the currency.

Core Purpose 2 - Financial Stability

Result: Failure to recognise the house price boom, failure to recognise the danger of the derivative markets and inappropriate lending, failure to regulate the banks, but I suppose a small success in acting as the lender of last resort; bailing out Brown by monetising his debt, taking on the nasty toxic assets of the banks and nationalising Northern Cock.

On the whole, not a great service to the nation, in fact a dismal failure.

So get rid of it, no point in hanging on to the old baggage, just weighs us down.

[chiang mai]

I'll respond to your question 12DM but not tonight, but in the meantime the following should warm all our hearts, not:

From UBS:

With the economy barely crawling out of recession, a rapid fiscal retrenchment would be treated to a "savage" reaction in foreign exchange markets, according to a new report by strategists at Swiss bank UBS (Virt-X: UBSN.VX - news) .

Taking too sharp an axe to the deficit - projected to reach £178bn this year - would "endanger tax revenues, Britain's sovereign rating, the recovery of the banking sector and the UK labour market," the strongly-worded report argues.

Such a scenario would transform the pound's steady and welcome decline since the start of the financial crisis into something much more dangerous, the report's authors, George Magnus and Mansoor Mohi-uddin, claim, as scepticism about the ability of Britain to repay its debts would increase.

"The severe fall in sterling after such a policy mistake would reflect a crisis of confidence in Britain's policymaking," the report says.

With confidence in British policymaking gone, the pound would risk plunging to $1.05 against the dollar and slumping beyond parity for the first time against the euro. Sterling was trading at $1.54 against the dollar and 88p against the euro in early afternoon trading on Wednesday.

The report comes as a blow to the Conservatives who are staking their claim for economic competence on the argument that a failure to take immediate and aggressive action on the deficit will tip Britain back into recession. Gordon Brown is trying to win round voters with the opposite argument.

[MJP]

See spreadsheet attached. Probably an over estimate on grocery which makes up 43% of the spend. Prices are correct for last week.

My costs are down to under £6k for quite comfortable living. Just me and 6 year old daughter, mother-in-law and father-in-law, it works well now. Yes, I wouldn't trust Thai figures either. The local shopkeeper here reports New Year beer sales down from 400 boxes the previous year to 40 boxes this year, he used to sell 35 mopeds a month, hardly any now, less than 5 anyway.

The irony is my own business is doing really well. The problem I have is the Thais I deal with are just not holding stock at the moment as business is so bad, whereas demand from UK is strong. So I look at the headlines and wonder where the truth lies.

I honestly think Thai figs. are utter BS.

But trends are trends, and I think we will see a combo of weak pound and stong baht for a while.

Yes cost of living still cheap out here if you can live wisely (stay single) otherwise cost of living spirals and as I say on other threads, Thais are just not earning at present.

What a mindfrig! TIT I guess!

£6K? 6 thousand Sterling per year?

hang on - your budget is 25,000 THB a month? with a daughter and 2 in-laws? how do you do it?

Household_Thailand_Budget_MJPv2.xls

[mommysboy]

I'll respond to your question 12DM but not tonight, but in the meantime the following should warm all our hearts, not:

From UBS:

With the economy barely crawling out of recession, a rapid fiscal retrenchment would be treated to a "savage" reaction in foreign exchange markets, according to a new report by strategists at Swiss bank UBS (Virt-X: UBSN.VX - news) .

Taking too sharp an axe to the deficit - projected to reach £178bn this year - would "endanger tax revenues, Britain's sovereign rating, the recovery of the banking sector and the UK labour market," the strongly-worded report argues.

Such a scenario would transform the pound's steady and welcome decline since the start of the financial crisis into something much more dangerous, the report's authors, George Magnus and Mansoor Mohi-uddin, claim, as scepticism about the ability of Britain to repay its debts would increase.

"The severe fall in sterling after such a policy mistake would reflect a crisis of confidence in Britain's policymaking," the report says.

With confidence in British policymaking gone, the pound would risk plunging to $1.05 against the dollar and slumping beyond parity for the first time against the euro. Sterling was trading at $1.54 against the dollar and 88p against the euro in early afternoon trading on Wednesday.

The report comes as a blow to the Conservatives who are staking their claim for economic competence on the argument that a failure to take immediate and aggressive action on the deficit will tip Britain back into recession. Gordon Brown is trying to win round voters with the opposite argument.

You nearly had me won over CM and then you go and post a load of garbage like that.

[chiang mai]

I'll respond to your question 12DM but not tonight, but in the meantime the following should warm all our hearts, not:

From UBS:

With the economy barely crawling out of recession, a rapid fiscal retrenchment would be treated to a "savage" reaction in foreign exchange markets, according to a new report by strategists at Swiss bank UBS (Virt-X: UBSN.VX - news) .

Taking too sharp an axe to the deficit - projected to reach £178bn this year - would "endanger tax revenues, Britain's sovereign rating, the recovery of the banking sector and the UK labour market," the strongly-worded report argues.

Such a scenario would transform the pound's steady and welcome decline since the start of the financial crisis into something much more dangerous, the report's authors, George Magnus and Mansoor Mohi-uddin, claim, as scepticism about the ability of Britain to repay its debts would increase.

"The severe fall in sterling after such a policy mistake would reflect a crisis of confidence in Britain's policymaking," the report says.

With confidence in British policymaking gone, the pound would risk plunging to $1.05 against the dollar and slumping beyond parity for the first time against the euro. Sterling was trading at $1.54 against the dollar and 88p against the euro in early afternoon trading on Wednesday.

The report comes as a blow to the Conservatives who are staking their claim for economic competence on the argument that a failure to take immediate and aggressive action on the deficit will tip Britain back into recession. Gordon Brown is trying to win round voters with the opposite argument.

You nearly had me won over CM and then you go and post a load of garbage like that.

I know it's not easy to understand but do try to keep up, what these bankers are saying is two things - the first is that markets would respond badly if too much deficit was cut too early, and between the lines the second is that there would be a similar outcome if there was a hung Parliament. Personally, I reckon there's probably something like a forty per cent chance of seeing that outcome before May, a $1.05 Pound and a sub par Euro, care to make a small side bet with me MMB?

[Chaimai]

Personally, I reckon there's probably something like a forty per cent chance of seeing that outcome before May, a $1.05 Pound and a sub par Euro, care to make a small side bet with me MMB?

If you are serious CM, I will take that small bet. Your post suggests that I have a 60% chance of winning.

[coolhandjoe]

72 bht to the £

fond memories 2003

[coolhandjoe]

72 bht to the £

fond memories 2003

[Chaimai]

72 bht to the £

fond memories 2003

I don't think we will see that gain . But you only have to go back to 2006:-

03.08.200671.1317004.08.200671.2978005.08.200671.7667006.08.200672.4051007.08.200672.4051008.08.200672.0847009.08.200671.863010.08.200671.69011.08.200671.35540

Courtesy of oganda.com

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates

[Chaimai]

For some reason I cannot edit my last post. The rates look better like this:-

03.08.2006 71.13170

04.08.2006 71.29780

05.08.2006 71.76670

06.08.2006 72.40510

07.08.2006 72.40510

08.08.2006 72.08470

09.08.2006 71.8630

10.08.2006 71.690

11.08.2006 71.35540

Edited February 24, 2010 by Chaimai

[neil324]

I'll respond to your question 12DM but not tonight, but in the meantime the following should warm all our hearts, not:

From UBS:

With the economy barely crawling out of recession, a rapid fiscal retrenchment would be treated to a "savage" reaction in foreign exchange markets, according to a new report by strategists at Swiss bank UBS (Virt-X: UBSN.VX - news) .

Taking too sharp an axe to the deficit - projected to reach £178bn this year - would "endanger tax revenues, Britain's sovereign rating, the recovery of the banking sector and the UK labour market," the strongly-worded report argues.

Such a scenario would transform the pound's steady and welcome decline since the start of the financial crisis into something much more dangerous, the report's authors, George Magnus and Mansoor Mohi-uddin, claim, as scepticism about the ability of Britain to repay its debts would increase.

"The severe fall in sterling after such a policy mistake would reflect a crisis of confidence in Britain's policymaking," the report says.

With confidence in British policymaking gone, the pound would risk plunging to $1.05 against the dollar and slumping beyond parity for the first time against the euro. Sterling was trading at $1.54 against the dollar and 88p against the euro in early afternoon trading on Wednesday.

The report comes as a blow to the Conservatives who are staking their claim for economic competence on the argument that a failure to take immediate and aggressive action on the deficit will tip Britain back into recession. Gordon Brown is trying to win round voters with the opposite argument.

You nearly had me won over CM and then you go and post a load of garbage like that.

I know it's not easy to understand but do try to keep up, what these bankers are saying is two things - the first is that markets would respond badly if too much deficit was cut too early, and between the lines the second is that there would be a similar outcome if there was a hung Parliament. Personally, I reckon there's probably something like a forty per cent chance of seeing that outcome before May, a $1.05 Pound and a sub par Euro, care to make a small side bet with me MMB?

Many reason's for it to happen, maybe not in that time frame. If it did, petrol would rise 25% imagine the CPI fiqures, you would have double digit interest rates in the blink of an eye..........the UK would be decimated.

Bring it on.

[Abrak]

I know it's not easy to understand but do try to keep up, what these bankers are saying is two things - the first is that markets would respond badly if too much deficit was cut too early, and between the lines the second is that there would be a similar outcome if there was a hung Parliament. Personally, I reckon there's probably something like a forty per cent chance of seeing that outcome before May, a $1.05 Pound and a sub par Euro, care to make a small side bet with me MMB?

Many reason's for it to happen, maybe not in that time frame. If it did, petrol would rise 25% imagine the CPI fiqures, you would have double digit interest rates in the blink of an eye..........the UK would be decimated.

Bring it on.

As I see it the deflation/inflation debate is coming to an end except in Europe. Money will be printed, exchange rates competitive devalued, debts increased until inflation and low interest rates are so damaging they have to be reversed. A commitment has been made to these policies that people will be able to look Bernanke in the eye and say 'we are impressed in your policy towards having a strong dollar.'

[Chaimai]

Many reason's for it to happen, maybe not in that time frame. If it did, petrol would rise 25% imagine the CPI fiqures, you would have double digit interest rates in the blink of an eye..........the UK would be decimated.

Bring it on.

"Bring it on"... because ?

[chiang mai]

Personally, I reckon there's probably something like a forty per cent chance of seeing that outcome before May, a $1.05 Pound and a sub par Euro, care to make a small side bet with me MMB?

If you are serious CM, I will take that small bet. Your post suggests that I have a 60% chance of winning.

Funny, I have of course no basis for saying there's a forty percent chance but the key is that there is a reasonable chance and there is a precedent, we have seen GDP/USD parity before. This is a real nightmare time for me at present and doubtless for others also. When GBP/USD is in the range of around 1.40 to 1.60, historically it's really difficult to determine which way it might go and I'm late in protecting some Sterling that's laying around. I think of this range as the danger zone because it's 50/50 as to which way it will swing, on the balance of probability however I reckon it's going downwards from here.