Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[12DrinkMore]

Of course I'd noticed the 30%drop! And believe me it's painful for me as much as anyone.

Regarding the stuff about the Asian business and life ethic. Come off it mate!!!! I mean how long have you been in Thailand? This is one of the most corrupt societies in the world.

I have been here well over a decade. Maybe you should consider what corruption means. If it is handing a BIB 100 Baht to avoid wasting time going to the station and paying 500 Baht, or dropping immigration a couple of thousand to iron over the odd visa problem and speed things up, then really, I don't see the problem. It IS the system, my money is being paid directly to the official who is "helping" me. I suppose you consider all the surveillance cameras, speeding cameras etc in the UK a fantastic development?

Thailand is also completely underdeveloped and largely without a welfare system. I can't see its development taking just a few years. But ok, let's assume there is going to be a massive explosion of growth, the masses would demand all the things the west has had, in fact they are doing that now. They wouldn't settle for a life of poverty, poor housing and no medical system. That all costs money.

As Chiang Mai has already pointed out, there is already a welfare system in place. Any Thai who is working should be paying, or having paid by the employer, the social insurance, which provides medical care and a pension.

And "completely underdeveloped", jeeze, when did you last visit Thailand? I can travel everywhere on relatively decent roads. Water, electricity, mobile phone networks, TV, radio, internet are available all over Thailand. I can visit a 7/11 anytime everyday of the year, I do not feel threatened ever, I can buy beer 24 hours/day. Nobody goes hungry in Thailand, nobody has to spend a night out on the freezing streets of London, Manchester or Liverpool. There is a family and social atmosphere, after all, all Thais are "brothers and sisters". In my garden there are almost daily spontaneous "somtam" sessions. Everybody invited. Compare that to the distant, rude, "no time for anyone but myself" culture in the UK.

Let's look at this from the opposite angle. A drop of 32 baht to pound (even 40bt), via parity with the dollar. That would make the UK one heck of an attractive place to set up your global business. Most things produced in Thailand could be produced cheaper and better in UK. Bring it on I say! Uk would be great again within 10 years.

No it wouldn't.

Rice, prawns, chicken, rubber, palm oil cannot be produced in the UK.

The rules, regulations, taxes, employee rights, unions and wages make the UK a very unattractive place to produce stuff. And you are forgetting one major problem, anything produced in the UK has to rely on imports, which, at the exchange rate you are talking about, will cost double what they cost before Darling devaluated.

And like you I feel it's high time people had to work for a living again.

The welfare sysytem in UK can not be sustained- we all know that!

On to crucial matters, beer, you are not buying the beer in Thailand cheaper than 1 year ago are you? Am I missing something important her?

At least there are two points we agree on.

And beer is about the same as I was paying last year, after the damned tax hike.

Edited February 26, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[Chaimai]

And beer is about the same as I was paying last year, after the damned tax hike.

So my Chang is still safe then ?

[chiang mai]

But back to the title of the thread and the answer is very clearly no, in fact, today may well be the day that we start to begin to live with 4x.xx Baht per Pound as GBP/USD now slips under 1.52. I'll try and find some good news later!

[MJP]

You've brightened my day a wee bit!

Pound could collapse in weeks

Shock! Jim Rogers didn't say sterling shall collapse!

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/26...shall-collapse/

[mommysboy]

But back to the title of the thread and the answer is very clearly no, in fact, today may well be the day that we start to begin to live with 4x.xx Baht per Pound as GBP/USD now slips under 1.52. I'll try and find some good news later!

Didn't it go down to 48 at one point last year. It's not such dramatic news really. Yes the article you referred to was just saying 'what would happen if' I think.

[apetley]

Pound could collapse in weeks

Shock! Jim Rogers didn’t say sterling shall collapse!

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/26...shall-collapse/

Seems bully boy Brown has beaten a retraction out of Jim already

[chiang mai]

But back to the title of the thread and the answer is very clearly no, in fact, today may well be the day that we start to begin to live with 4x.xx Baht per Pound as GBP/USD now slips under 1.52. I'll try and find some good news later!

Didn't it go down to 48 at one point last year. It's not such dramatic news really. Yes the article you referred to was just saying 'what would happen if' I think.

I'm not referring to any article when I say that GBP/USD has gone below 1.52 and the Thai Baht is now into 4X territory, I'm looking at a live screen on a currency platform on the Forex and I can assure the direction is all very much one way.

[MJP]

GBP is unlikley to find support at the 52 week low. Moving into the next lower trading range. 45-50?

But back to the title of the thread and the answer is very clearly no, in fact, today may well be the day that we start to begin to live with 4x.xx Baht per Pound as GBP/USD now slips under 1.52. I'll try and find some good news later!

Didn't it go down to 48 at one point last year. It's not such dramatic news really. Yes the article you referred to was just saying 'what would happen if' I think.

I'm not referring to any article when I say that GBP/USD has gone below 1.52 and the Thai Baht is now into 4X territory, I'm looking at a live screen on a currency platform on the Forex and I can assure the direction is all very much one way.

[mommysboy]

CM - I was referring to the article on parity! trust the pound (ounce) didn't fair that badly today!!

MJP - yes 45-50 could well be the range for 2010. I think the shorters are out though.

Drinkmore- I think Thailand's corruption problems extend beyond the odd 100bt backhander! And of course I didn't mean UK would directly challenge Thailand. Merely meantthat at parity, UK would have a significant pricing advantage. Beyond contest surely?!

[Abrak]

If things go really badly wrong in the UK, it could probably join the Euro.

[Penkoprod]

If things go really badly wrong in the UK, it could probably join the Euro.

It doesnt meet the criteria anymore, i shouldnt think, and. therefore wouldnt be allowed to join

[Abrak]

If things go really badly wrong in the UK, it could probably join the Euro.

It doesnt meet the criteria anymore, i shouldnt think, and. therefore wouldnt be allowed to join

Not one single country in the Euro meets the criteria anymore, so presumably it shouldnt exist.

[Penkoprod]

If things go really badly wrong in the UK, it could probably join the Euro.

It doesnt meet the criteria anymore, i shouldnt think, and. therefore wouldnt be allowed to join

Not one single country in the Euro meets the criteria anymore, so presumably it shouldnt exist.

The others dont need to meet it...they are already IN it

The criteria is to JOIN it in the 1st place.

[chiang mai]

Judging by the current state of the Euro and after reading remarks by Soros today, I'm not sure that joining would be a good idea! Make the cuts I say and suffer the pain, a much better concept for the longer term.

[12DrinkMore]

Here you go MB,

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/business...27thaiauto.html

It has been posted by Churchill somewhere else, but it is very indicative of the way things are moving in Thailand.

BANGKOK — The two largest American carmakers are turning to local banks in Asia to pay for their expansion in the region, a departure from previous years that allows them to tap the deep pool of savings in the region.

One of them, General Motors, announced last month that it had secured 13.5 billion baht, or $410 million, in loans from Thai banks to build three new factories, a plan for growth that is in sharp contrast with the company’s defensive posture in the United States. G.M. is now also looking for local financing in Indonesia, where it hopes to revamp a minivan facility.

Next month, the second company, Ford, is planning to announce construction of a facility worth 19.8 billion baht in Thailand, using funding from local banks, government officials said. The factory will produce compact cars and add to the factories that Ford already owns in Thailand with Mazda, which have an annual production capacity of 275,000 vehicles.

and

“Multinational companies right now are changing their policies and sourcing their funding from local banks,” said Ajarin Pattanapanchai, the deputy secretary general of Thailand’s Board of Investment. “Thailand’s monetary system and the banking system are still quite strong. We have cash to fund big projects.”

and

Over the past decade, Thailand has become a global hub for pickup truck production and now ranks as Asia’s third-largest car exporter, behind Japan and South Korea. Besides G.M. and Ford, Japan’s major carmakers have large operations in Thailand.

So you see, MB, unlike the mess in the UK,

- The Thai banking system is intact and is lending large chunks to foreign companies

- Thailand is now the third largest Asian car exporter

- large long term investment is being made in Thailand, so obviously these companies can see a promising future here

And look at where they are exporting to

Vehicles made here are exported to Southeast Asia, Australia, Africa and the Middle East.

Can't see Europe or the States in there. I guess their credit is all maxed out.

And how far do you think that Darling will have to devalue the GBP to bring the UK labour costs down to compete with the Asians? We would be looking at 5 THB to the GBP, and you wouldn't have many smiling workers, unlike Thailand, either.

[ChiangMaiFun]

And how far do you think that Darling will have to devalue the GBP to bring the UK labour costs down to compete with the Asians? We would be looking at 5 THB to the GBP, and you wouldn't have many smiling workers, unlike Thailand, either.

but you were the guy who predicted a fall last year to below 50 and it went up to 54.8 (and I transferred) now its down again and you're back bleating about how the West is bankrupt - same sh1t different day

[chiang mai]

To be fair, trying to second guess the movement of a currency pair is something that technical Forex analysts can do with limited amounts of success, but we mortals have a much tougher time. It's often quite easy to estimate the direction of a currency but getting the timing right is another story. In any event, anyone who get both direction and timing correct every time is a god in my book.

[mommysboy]

12Drinkmore.

You obviously didn't check my postings. I said already that I was not suggesting UK would be in direct competition. Merely pointed out that if parity were achieved then UK would benefit from a terrific boost in exports, and most likely would become a European assembly/production hub. That could lead to a production led boom.

But on prices, it seems a small point but most definitely beer has gone up. If you can not accept this I can't see any point debating at all. It is clear and unequivocal! Only you could try to muddy the issue!

On the issue of infrastructure in Thailand! Just where did you get those rosy spectacles?- I need a pair too! . Let's be on honest, it's worse than post war Blighty! Yes there is a rudimentary health system, it's not so bad either- I stand corrected.

Some tv's, cheaper digital cameras, notebooks, and mobiles are now cheaper in UK. They now join the group of items we already know about- toiletries, second hand cars, some foodstuffs. Oh and some beer too of course

Corruption is endemic in these parts and was adjudged to have worsened in Thailand.The last measure I saw, listed Thailand as second from bottom in SE Asia. It 's particularly ruinous as it results in the kind of mess you see with the airport link and at the airport. All in all I'd say every economy has huge inefficiencies in one way or another, with UK it's the welfare system, wages, and ridiculous housing/land costs. With Thailand it's the general inefficiency, political turmoil, terrible addictions, corruption, poorly skilled labour force. So just to endlessly refer to labour costs in UK doesn't cut the mustard. Further, one thing is for sure, UK can not support the awful abuse of the welfare system, whereas Thailand has to improve dramatically in order to stave off revolution- this is probably the 20th richest nation in the world now on official terms alone (probably much richer when you add in the black market).

What I think you and others don't take on board is the dynamic 'swings and roundabouts' of the situation. You see a situation and paint it completely black. It simply does not work like this.

All this notwithstanding, UK is in a miserable state and we can all agree, the sooner cuts are made, social sanity restored, and some morality introduced in to the financial and housing sector the quicker recovery can be initiated. This is very worrying.

[ChiangMaiFun]

To be fair, trying to second guess the movement of a currency pair is something that technical Forex analysts can do with limited amounts of success, but we mortals have a much tougher time. It's often quite easy to estimate the direction of a currency but getting the timing right is another story. In any event, anyone who get both direction and timing correct every time is a god in my book.

I agree - but he posts with such gusto! and certainty! the Thai economy is the best in the world etc. etc. England is doomed... doomed... luckily I waited and saved myself over 100,000 baht. No one knows... period

[chiang mai]

12Drinkmore.

You obviously didn't check my postings. I said already that I was not suggesting UK would be in direct competition. Merely pointed out that if parity were achieved then UK would benefit from a terrific boost in exports, and most likely would become a European assembly/production hub. That could lead to a production led boom.

But on prices, it seems a small point but most definitely beer has gone up. If you can not accept this I can't see any point debating at all. It is clear and unequivocal! Only you could try to muddy the issue!

On the issue of infrastructure in Thailand! Just where did you get those rosy spectacles?- I need a pair too! . Let's be on honest, it's worse than post war Blighty! Yes there is a rudimentary health system, it's not so bad either- I stand corrected.

Some tv's, cheaper digital cameras, notebooks, and mobiles are now cheaper in UK. They now join the group of items we already know about- toiletries, second hand cars, some foodstuffs. Oh and some beer too of course

Corruption is endemic in these parts and was adjudged to have worsened in Thailand.The last measure I saw, listed Thailand as second from bottom in SE Asia. It 's particularly ruinous as it results in the kind of mess you see with the airport link and at the airport. All in all I'd say every economy has huge inefficiencies in one way or another, with UK it's the welfare system, wages, and ridiculous housing/land costs. With Thailand it's the general inefficiency, political turmoil, terrible addictions, corruption, poorly skilled labour force. So just to endlessly refer to labour costs in UK doesn't cut the mustard. Further, one thing is for sure, UK can not support the awful abuse of the welfare system, whereas Thailand has to improve dramatically in order to stave off revolution- this is probably the 20th richest nation in the world now on official terms alone (probably much richer when you add in the black market).

What I think you and others don't take on board is the dynamic 'swings and roundabouts' of the situation. You see a situation and paint it completely black. It simply does not work like this.

All this notwithstanding, UK is in a miserable state and we can all agree, the sooner cuts are made, social sanity restored, and some morality introduced in to the financial and housing sector the quicker recovery can be initiated. This is very worrying.

That's a good post, just one thing regarding the cost of things: product pricing often varies by market, as such I wouldn't expect any imported product to remain consistently priced in the UK or in Thailand, prices will change based on the economy/wealth of individual countries.

[12DrinkMore]

but you were the guy who predicted a fall last year to below 50 and it went up to 54.8 (and I transferred) now its down again and you're back bleating about how the West is bankrupt - same sh1t different day

Well it did go beneath 50 but then came up a bit, and now it's going below 50 once more.

And the last time I looked at the western economies they were still indebted and bankrupt, so no change, and, as you say, it's the same boring shit just that another year has passed and it hasn't got any better; more bailouts, more QE, continued ZIRP, increased deficit budgets, but with the added bonus of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy looking at national defaults or EU bailouts.

But maybe we should take a poll? Is the GBP going up or down?

At the time the GBP took a massive lurch down from 75 to 50 a lot of posters thought that this was temporary and that the good 'ol Squib would be up above 65 before long. Now over eighteen months later I get the impression that these expectations have been reset and the optimists are considering 52 to 55 a good range and the "doomers" are looking at the range 45-50. So, if there is anybody left in da house who thinks the GBP will be above 55 in the next twelve months, put ya hands up!

[Abrak]

And how far do you think that Darling will have to devalue the GBP to bring the UK labour costs down to compete with the Asians? We would be looking at 5 THB to the GBP, and you wouldn't have many smiling workers, unlike Thailand, either.

Personally I think it is unlikely that GBP will fall to THB5 to sterling in the next 5 or 10 years. All we can do is hope. The country would be more pleasant if it happened although we would have to put up with Brits as maids or waiters claiming they were only doing this job until a big offer came through via their agent, the guy who puts the music on calling himself a 'turntablist' and cocktail waiters calling themselves 'celebrity mixologists.'

[12DrinkMore]

12Drinkmore.

You obviously didn't check my postings. I said already that I was not suggesting UK would be in direct competition. Merely pointed out that if parity were achieved then UK would benefit from a terrific boost in exports, and most likely would become a European assembly/production hub. That could lead to a production led boom.

But on prices, it seems a small point but most definitely beer has gone up. If you can not accept this I can't see any point debating at all. It is clear and unequivocal! Only you could try to muddy the issue!

On the issue of infrastructure in Thailand! Just where did you get those rosy spectacles?- I need a pair too! . Let's be on honest, it's worse than post war Blighty! Yes there is a rudimentary health system, it's not so bad either- I stand corrected.

Some tv's, cheaper digital cameras, notebooks, and mobiles are now cheaper in UK. They now join the group of items we already know about- toiletries, second hand cars, some foodstuffs. Oh and some beer too of course

Corruption is endemic in these parts and was adjudged to have worsened in Thailand.The last measure I saw, listed Thailand as second from bottom in SE Asia. It 's particularly ruinous as it results in the kind of mess you see with the airport link and at the airport. All in all I'd say every economy has huge inefficiencies in one way or another, with UK it's the welfare system, wages, and ridiculous housing/land costs. With Thailand it's the general inefficiency, political turmoil, terrible addictions, corruption, poorly skilled labour force. So just to endlessly refer to labour costs in UK doesn't cut the mustard. Further, one thing is for sure, UK can not support the awful abuse of the welfare system, whereas Thailand has to improve dramatically in order to stave off revolution- this is probably the 20th richest nation in the world now on official terms alone (probably much richer when you add in the black market).

What I think you and others don't take on board is the dynamic 'swings and roundabouts' of the situation. You see a situation and paint it completely black. It simply does not work like this.

All this notwithstanding, UK is in a miserable state and we can all agree, the sooner cuts are made, social sanity restored, and some morality introduced in to the financial and housing sector the quicker recovery can be initiated. This is very worrying.

I can't remember when exactly the Thais slapped the 15% odd extra tax on my beer consumption, if it was in the last twelve months then yes, the price has gone up. if it was before that, then I have noticed any other substantial increase.

I haven't been shopping in the UK for over five years, so cannot compare the prices.

To repeat your last sentence

All this notwithstanding, UK is in a miserable state and we can all agree, the sooner cuts are made, social sanity restored, and some morality introduced in to the financial and housing sector the quicker recovery can be initiated. This is very worrying.

We are in total accord here, but I cannot see where these measures will be taken and by whom.

Unfortunately it looks like Merv will prefer to print Squibs and monetise more of government budget deficit. I guess it is no surprise that he announces this at the same time as the miserable tax revenue figures for January came out, another record low for Labour.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/fe...easing-eurozone

[chiang mai]

but you were the guy who predicted a fall last year to below 50 and it went up to 54.8 (and I transferred) now its down again and you're back bleating about how the West is bankrupt - same sh1t different day

Well it did go beneath 50 but then came up a bit, and now it's going below 50 once more.

And the last time I looked at the western economies they were still indebted and bankrupt, so no change, and, as you say, it's the same boring shit just that another year has passed and it hasn't got any better; more bailouts, more QE, continued ZIRP, increased deficit budgets, but with the added bonus of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy looking at national defaults or EU bailouts.

But maybe we should take a poll? Is the GBP going up or down?

At the time the GBP took a massive lurch down from 75 to 50 a lot of posters thought that this was temporary and that the good 'ol Squib would be up above 65 before long. Now over eighteen months later I get the impression that these expectations have been reset and the optimists are considering 52 to 55 a good range and the "doomers" are looking at the range 45-50. So, if there is anybody left in da house who thinks the GBP will be above 55 in the next twelve months, put ya hands up!

I think I might be inclined to go 40/45, 45/50 and 50/55 on the scale of doomer to dreamer with 45/50 being the normal operating range for a while, might be wrong and I hope I am.

[chiang mai]

And how far do you think that Darling will have to devalue the GBP to bring the UK labour costs down to compete with the Asians? We would be looking at 5 THB to the GBP, and you wouldn't have many smiling workers, unlike Thailand, either.

we would have to put up with Brits as maids or waiters claiming they were only doing this job until a big offer came through via their agent, the guy who puts the music on calling himself a 'turntablist' and cocktail waiters calling themselves 'celebrity mixologists.'

That thought alone, regardless of where the exchange rates are, make Malaysia look very attractive, along with the Sudan, Ethiopia and any other place I can imagine.

[Abrak]

I haven't been shopping in the UK for over five years, so cannot compare the prices.

My advice is do not shop there out of principle. There is an outrageous amount of 'double charging' endemic throughout the whole country. First they charge you at least twice what it could possibly be worth to stay in a hotel room, then they charge you GBP15 for valet parking (which one naturally assumes comes with the hotel service) and then they charge you GBP40 for keeping your car in their hotel when they have already charged you GBP300 to sleep in a room the size of a shoe box. How Brits come here and complain about being charged an extra Bt100 to visit a Wat or watch a crocodile sleeping is quite beyond me.

[dmax]

strengthen ? hahahhahhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaa below 50 today !

[MJP]

+1 A big one too!

It would still cost me more than double to live in the UK even if the Pound goes to 40

I'm a smoker. Okay I know. But it would cost me £2000 a year in the UK whereas it costs £320 a year in Thailand . . . if the Pound goes to 40. My council tax in the UK would be £1200 a year, here it's zero. My electricity bill last month was 617 Baht. My gas bill to run the stove is about 800 Baht . . . A YEAR!

So okay, I'll put off buying that ER6-f for a year or two . . . probably only kill myself on the thing anyway. I won't re-build the bathroom this year, sick of the mess of building in any case. We learn to economize during these periods of financial weakness and we also learn not to change even if the situation improves . . . turns us into savers which is a good thing.

I haven't been shopping in the UK for over five years, so cannot compare the prices.

My advice is do not shop there out of principle. There is an outrageous amount of 'double charging' endemic throughout the whole country. First they charge you at least twice what it could possibly be worth to stay in a hotel room, then they charge you GBP15 for valet parking (which one naturally assumes comes with the hotel service) and then they charge you GBP40 for keeping your car in their hotel when they have already charged you GBP300 to sleep in a room the size of a shoe box. How Brits come here and complain about being charged an extra Bt100 to visit a Wat or watch a crocodile sleeping is quite beyond me.

[MJP]

This was Jim on the 20th Jan according to Bloomberg.

Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said the “U.K. is finished” and investors should sell the currency. Commonwealth Bank of Australia said there was a high risk of a cut to the country’s credit rating outlook and lowered its pound forecast. Prime Minister Gordon Brown authorized a 100 billion pound ($142 billion) bailout for banks.

“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” said Rogers. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.” Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

Jim Rogers

[MJP]

. . . and don't forget the inflation this will cause in the UK. The cost of living there is set to soar.