Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[MJP]

[chiang mai]

This was Jim on the 20th Jan according to Bloomberg.

Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said the “U.K. is finished” and investors should sell the currency. Commonwealth Bank of Australia said there was a high risk of a cut to the country’s credit rating outlook and lowered its pound forecast. Prime Minister Gordon Brown authorized a 100 billion pound ($142 billion) bailout for banks.

“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” said Rogers. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.” Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

Jim Rogers

MJP: If you take a look at HPC there is a link to an FT article that discusses the Jim Rogers statements, in short, Jim Rogers DID NOT say those things and he does not support them. The statements were made "inadvertently" by someone who works for him who became confused whilst handing out press statements in advance of an undersold presentation by JR!!!

Said womble in an ex City Trader, aka barrow boy, who now lives in Monaco and works for JR, JR will issue a retraction soon, presumably after the seminar that all this press has promoted. It's all press and marketing and big money BS aimed at making the issuer more money, ignore it all.

Edited February 27, 2010 by chiang mai

[MJP]

I know dude, I posted it.

Jim Rogers did make these comments however, on Bloomberg.

This was Jim on the 20th Jan according to Bloomberg.

Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said the "U.K. is finished" and investors should sell the currency. Commonwealth Bank of Australia said there was a high risk of a cut to the country's credit rating outlook and lowered its pound forecast. Prime Minister Gordon Brown authorized a 100 billion pound ($142 billion) bailout for banks.

"I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have," said Rogers. "It's finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K." Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

Jim Rogers

MJP: If you take a look at HPC there is a link to an FT article that discusses the Jim Rogers statements, in short, Jim Rogers DID NOT say those things and he does not support them. The statements were made "inadvertently" by someone who works for him who became confused whilst handing out press statements in advance of an undersold presentation by JR!!!

Said womble in an ex City Trader, aka barrow boy, who now lives in Monaco and works for JR, JR will issue a retraction soon, presumably after the seminar that all this press has promoted. It's all press and marketing and big money BS aimed at making the issuer more money, ignore it all.

[chiang mai]

It's all marketing, ignore it all and just go with your own view of the facts, the world is not going to end, today.

[MJP]

Life does go on.

In fact, my mind set has gone from boom time consumption to a low stress, low expectation of consumption, be happy with what you've got . . . no big deal.

It's all marketing, ignore it all and just go with your own view of the facts, the world is not going to end, today.

[mommysboy]

but you were the guy who predicted a fall last year to below 50 and it went up to 54.8 (and I transferred) now its down again and you're back bleating about how the West is bankrupt - same sh1t different day

Well it did go beneath 50 but then came up a bit, and now it's going below 50 once more.

And the last time I looked at the western economies they were still indebted and bankrupt, so no change, and, as you say, it's the same boring shit just that another year has passed and it hasn't got any better; more bailouts, more QE, continued ZIRP, increased deficit budgets, but with the added bonus of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy looking at national defaults or EU bailouts.

But maybe we should take a poll? Is the GBP going up or down?

At the time the GBP took a massive lurch down from 75 to 50 a lot of posters thought that this was temporary and that the good 'ol Squib would be up above 65 before long. Now over eighteen months later I get the impression that these expectations have been reset and the optimists are considering 52 to 55 a good range and the "doomers" are looking at the range 45-50. So, if there is anybody left in da house who thinks the GBP will be above 55 in the next twelve months, put ya hands up!

Yes, sums my thought processes up. I thought I was being very consevative when I initially predicted up to 60 within a year. I think below 50 for a short while and then 50-55 for a good long while. We will not see 60 for many a year.

[ChiangMaiFun]

but you were the guy who predicted a fall last year to below 50 and it went up to 54.8 (and I transferred) now its down again and you're back bleating about how the West is bankrupt - same sh1t different day

Well it did go beneath 50 but then came up a bit, and now it's going below 50 once more.

And the last time I looked at the western economies they were still indebted and bankrupt, so no change, and, as you say, it's the same boring shit just that another year has passed and it hasn't got any better; more bailouts, more QE, continued ZIRP, increased deficit budgets, but with the added bonus of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy looking at national defaults or EU bailouts.

But maybe we should take a poll? Is the GBP going up or down?

At the time the GBP took a massive lurch down from 75 to 50 a lot of posters thought that this was temporary and that the good 'ol Squib would be up above 65 before long. Now over eighteen months later I get the impression that these expectations have been reset and the optimists are considering 52 to 55 a good range and the "doomers" are looking at the range 45-50. So, if there is anybody left in da house who thinks the GBP will be above 55 in the next twelve months, put ya hands up!

Yes, sums my thought processes up. I thought I was being very consevative when I initially predicted up to 60 within a year. I think below 50 for a short while and then 50-55 for a good long while. We will not see 60 for many a year.

I completely agree - same as last year - sub 50 bounce back maybe hit 54/55 down again... so i predict a high of late 54s maybe 55 if we are lucky and a lurch down - forget 60s - last year I thought we might get to 57/58 and it didn't quiet make it (anyway I was worried enough at my own prediction to transfer at 54.8!).

Get used to it everybody... only 60s and 70s in your record collection not at the bank...

[alant]

dam_n x rate

[101734]

In fact, my mind set has gone from boom time consumption to a low stress, low expectation of consumption, be happy with what you've got . . . no big deal.

I like this guy, he talks sense.

[12DrinkMore]

In fact, my mind set has gone from boom time consumption to a low stress, low expectation of consumption, be happy with what you've got . . . no big deal.

I like this guy, he talks sense.

[MJP]

I will caution that it helps if you no longer have a wife/gf.

Analysis of the past 8 years spending shows 70% of it was her and the rest the UK government.

I still have some socks and pants left I managed to buy myself a few years ago . . . .

In fact, my mind set has gone from boom time consumption to a low stress, low expectation of consumption, be happy with what you've got . . . no big deal.

I like this guy, he talks sense.

[Abrak]

I still have some socks and pants left I managed to buy myself a few years ago . . . .

In my experience, when you get to about the age of 35, the reason you have decent pants and socks is that is because it is about the only presents people buy you.

Worst of all, it is combined with the comment 'what else do you buy someone who has everything?' (a frigging yacht for a starter) and why 'the guy who has everything' wants socks is beyond me.

[MJP]

I went through a phase of mass sock buying a couple of years ago. Anytime I saw socks at a discount . . . 5 pairs straight in the trolley!

Useful now all I wear are flip flops.

I still have some socks and pants left I managed to buy myself a few years ago . . . .

In my experience, when you get to about the age of 35, the reason you have decent pants and socks is that is because it is about the only presents people buy you.

Worst of all, it is combined with the comment 'what else do you buy someone who has everything?' (a frigging yacht for a starter) and why 'the guy who has everything' wants socks is beyond me.

[Naam]

I haven't been shopping in the UK for over five years, so cannot compare the prices.

My advice is do not shop there out of principle. There is an outrageous amount of 'double charging' endemic throughout the whole country. First they charge you at least twice what it could possibly be worth to stay in a hotel room, then they charge you GBP15 for valet parking (which one naturally assumes comes with the hotel service) and then they charge you GBP40 for keeping your car in their hotel when they have already charged you GBP300 to sleep in a room the size of a shoe box. How Brits come here and complain about being charged an extra Bt100 to visit a Wat or watch a crocodile sleeping is quite beyond me.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Life does go on.

In fact, my mind set has gone from boom time consumption to a low stress, low expectation of consumption, be happy with what you've got . . . no big deal.

It's all marketing, ignore it all and just go with your own view of the facts, the world is not going to end, today.

agreed... I got out of a high powered-high stressed job in the City - income down - happiness index up! for all the analysis when you are on your death bed and reviewing it all your bank account will not mean that much - now I have stepped back I am quite averse (and getting worse) to all that corporate consumerish rubbish - I am out of the market and will say out. Small is Beautiful.

[MJP]

E. Fritz Schmacher

Good quote.

Life does go on.

In fact, my mind set has gone from boom time consumption to a low stress, low expectation of consumption, be happy with what you've got . . . no big deal.

It's all marketing, ignore it all and just go with your own view of the facts, the world is not going to end, today.

agreed... I got out of a high powered-high stressed job in the City - income down - happiness index up! for all the analysis when you are on your death bed and reviewing it all your bank account will not mean that much - now I have stepped back I am quite averse (and getting worse) to all that corporate consumerish rubbish - I am out of the market and will say out. Small is Beautiful.

[midas]

It's all marketing, ignore it all and just go with your own view of the facts, the world is not going to end, today.

" the world is not going to end, today. " but a 20 percent and 30 percent drop isnt so nice

Turcan Connell, which caters to rich families, expects the pound to lose between 20 percent and 30 percent against the dollar once investors turn their sights on Britain as the government sells a record amount of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...9wSks&pos=6

[12DrinkMore]

Lest we forget

Before the Asian financial crisis

GBP 42

USD 25

AUD 21

EUR 30

CHF 21

After the Asian financial crisis

GBP 70

USD 43

AUD 30

EUR 46

CHF 31

Now, in the middle of the Western financial crisis

GBP 50

USD 33

AUD 29

EUR 45

CHF 31

And after the recovery (whenever that might happen)..... howabout?

GBP 42

USD 30

AUD 29

EUR 42

CHF 29

Probably way off, but broadly based on

1. The Germans and the French are determined that the EUR will survive, and it seems that Ireland and Greece (at least they are making the right noises) will also work towards it.

2. The US had an amazing growth in the last quarter of 2009. The USD remains the world's reserve currency and Bernanke raised the discount rate rate last month. The seems to be a move in opinion that the FED will slowly reduce its "stimulus". I am also gaining respect for the job that Bernanke is doing. Although he has the advantage of managing the world's reserve currency, he seems to be steering a steady path through the jungle of difficulties that surrounds him.

3. The Swiss have always managed to keep a check on their currency and have been actively holding down the value over the last few months. They do not want it to appreciate significantly against their trading partners in the Eurozone.

4. Australia, trading mostly with Asia, has already increased base rates and the economy seems to be improving.

5. And the Squib. Well, what can I say? Merv is talking about even more QE, I suspect he is concerned that the bond market will fail in the next tranch of bonds, so he will have to buy them up. The property market has still not taken the hit it should have to bring down prices in line with affordability. The only guys that will bail out the UK are in the IMF, certainly I cannot see the Euro countries stepping and helping out. And until there is at least an indication that Merv will increase the base rate there is nothing to encourage investors to move into a devaluing GBP.

There is uncertainy over who will be in power in six months time.

Although MB is convinced that once the GBP has hit rock bottom foreign investors will come in droves to rebuild the lost industry. I am mot sure which countries will be interested. The Europeans will surely prefer to invest in Europe and build up the European industry, or continue to invest in Asia, where the markets are developing and labour costs are low. The Asians will invest in Asia. The Yanks will invest in Asia and the States. The UK is overregulated with employment laws, employee "benefits", environment laws and higher taxes are on the way to pay for the budget deficits, making the UK, IMO, a very unattractive place to invest in.

Ahh, says MB, but the UK is full to the brim with highly qualified and educated workers. Well, maybe, but a lot of those UK university students study bullshit subjects in the arts. The engineering classes are however full of foreign students keen to learn skills applicable in a career in their own countries. This could be viewed as a shot in the UK's own foot, producing highly educated engineering graduates with english language skills, who then promptly head off back home to work in industry. The UK graduates end up by become burdens on the tax payer, either by remaining in education, are unemployed or by working for the government pushing paper around.

But there is another major problem with this "welcome devaluation" (not my words, it was in the press recently) of the GBP. And this is the inflation that comes through the cost of imports. In their deluded skulls the Tricky Triad Brown/Darling/King are hoping to get inflation surging up to at least 4% and more, as this would then start the circle of pay increases going and eliminate debt. This time around, however, I am not convinced that it will work, there are too many unemployed and therefore, at least outside the civil service, which constantly awards itself inflation busting pay increases, there will be no pressure on employers to increase wages. And if inflation starts moving the basic living requirements upwards, the peeps will have even less money to spend on new cars, lcd TVs and houses.

A decade of austerity and reduction in living standards is staring the UK in the face. It's a pity that the Greek/Irish path of spending reductions and allowing the house prices/rents to fall to affordable levels has been considered too difficult for the Labour government to accept, resulting in not only the UK spenders to suffer, but also all the savers, and those dependent on UK income to take a massive hit as Brown shreds another 20% off the GBP (already 10% gone in the last week or two), instead of preserving the value of the currency and putting the economy in order.

That was a long rant, and sorry about the doom, but please take me up on any of these points and give me hope that for the UK things can, indeed, get better. In particular, in relation to this thread, that the GBP will stabilise around 45 to 50 Baht. It is now below 50 and I suspect will stay below 50 for quite a while now.

And also do not act on any of my ridiculous forecasts, as the GBP could shoot up to 65 next week.

But only in your dreams.

:D

[chiang mai]

Back in the days when I did drink alcohol I used to make a point of never touching the stuff before 6:0pm, I can highly recommend it 12DM!

[ChiangMaiFun]

Lest we forget

Before the Asian financial crisis

GBP 42

USD 25

AUD 21

EUR 30

CHF 21

After the Asian financial crisis

GBP 70

USD 43

AUD 30

EUR 46

CHF 31

Now, in the middle of the Western financial crisis

GBP 50

USD 33

AUD 29

EUR 45

CHF 31

And after the recovery (whenever that might happen)..... howabout?

GBP 42

USD 30

AUD 29

EUR 42

CHF 29

Probably way off, but broadly based on

1. The Germans and the French are determined that the EUR will survive, and it seems that Ireland and Greece (at least they are making the right noises) will also work towards it.

2. The US had an amazing growth in the last quarter of 2009. The USD remains the world's reserve currency and Bernanke raised the discount rate rate last month. The seems to be a move in opinion that the FED will slowly reduce its "stimulus". I am also gaining respect for the job that Bernanke is doing. Although he has the advantage of managing the world's reserve currency, he seems to be steering a steady path through the jungle of difficulties that surrounds him.

3. The Swiss have always managed to keep a check on their currency and have been actively holding down the value over the last few months. They do not want it to appreciate significantly against their trading partners in the Eurozone.

4. Australia, trading mostly with Asia, has already increased base rates and the economy seems to be improving.

5. And the Squib. Well, what can I say? Merv is talking about even more QE, I suspect he is concerned that the bond market will fail in the next tranch of bonds, so he will have to buy them up. The property market has still not taken the hit it should have to bring down prices in line with affordability. The only guys that will bail out the UK are in the IMF, certainly I cannot see the Euro countries stepping and helping out. And until there is at least an indication that Merv will increase the base rate there is nothing to encourage investors to move into a devaluing GBP.

There is uncertainy over who will be in power in six months time.

Although MB is convinced that once the GBP has hit rock bottom foreign investors will come in droves to rebuild the lost industry. I am mot sure which countries will be interested. The Europeans will surely prefer to invest in Europe and build up the European industry, or continue to invest in Asia, where the markets are developing and labour costs are low. The Asians will invest in Asia. The Yanks will invest in Asia and the States. The UK is overregulated with employment laws, employee "benefits", environment laws and higher taxes are on the way to pay for the budget deficits, making the UK, IMO, a very unattractive place to invest in.

Ahh, says MB, but the UK is full to the brim with highly qualified and educated workers. Well, maybe, but a lot of those UK university students study bullshit subjects in the arts. The engineering classes are however full of foreign students keen to learn skills applicable in a career in their own countries. This could be viewed as a shot in the UK's own foot, producing highly educated engineering graduates with english language skills, who then promptly head off back home to work in industry. The UK graduates end up by become burdens on the tax payer, either by remaining in education, are unemployed or by working for the government pushing paper around.

But there is another major problem with this "welcome devaluation" (not my words, it was in the press recently) of the GBP. And this is the inflation that comes through the cost of imports. In their deluded skulls the Tricky Triad Brown/Darling/King are hoping to get inflation surging up to at least 4% and more, as this would then start the circle of pay increases going and eliminate debt. This time around, however, I am not convinced that it will work, there are too many unemployed and therefore, at least outside the civil service, which constantly awards itself inflation busting pay increases, there will be no pressure on employers to increase wages. And if inflation starts moving the basic living requirements upwards, the peeps will have even less money to spend on new cars, lcd TVs and houses.

A decade of austerity and reduction in living standards is staring the UK in the face. It's a pity that the Greek/Irish path of spending reductions and allowing the house prices/rents to fall to affordable levels has been considered too difficult for the Labour government to accept, resulting in not only the UK spenders to suffer, but also all the savers, and those dependent on UK income to take a massive hit as Brown shreds another 20% off the GBP (already 10% gone in the last week or two), instead of preserving the value of the currency and putting the economy in order.

That was a long rant, and sorry about the doom, but please take me up on any of these points and give me hope that for the UK things can, indeed, get better. In particular, in relation to this thread, that the GBP will stabilise around 45 to 50 Baht. It is now below 50 and I suspect will stay below 50 for quite a while now.

And also do not act on any of my ridiculous forecasts, as the GBP could shoot up to 65 next week.

But only in your dreams.

Euro parity with HM pound? in point in staying out then! regretfully I do agree on the 48/52 range

[MJP]

At some point, all this will have to come to an end.

Our daily debt

[chiang mai]

At some point, all this will have to come to an end.

Our daily debt

Sooner rather than later I trust, generation lost I presume, or is that plural perhaps.

BTW, GBP/USD looking very queasy this morning, something maybe afoot since the Telegraph chose to comment on the decline at 07:30 this morning, life vests are on your left and your right, try not to damage to do too much damage whilst disembarking!

[MJP]

Run on the Pound week.

At some point, all this will have to come to an end.

Our daily debt

Sooner rather than later I trust, generation lost I presume, or is that plural perhaps.

BTW, GBP/USD looking very queasy this morning, something maybe afoot since the Telegraph chose to comment on the decline at 07:30 this morning, life vests are on your left and your right, try not to damage to do too much damage whilst disembarking!

[chiang mai]

Relax, it's early in the week and very early in the day also, we're not there yet.

[MJP]

London's been open, what, 2 hours? Down 2% already. Okay, might see a little rally sometime later theis week, but . . . . unlikely.

Relax, it's early in the week and very early in the day also, we're not there yet.

[MJP]

This'll cheer you lot up.

Massive dragon

[chiang mai]

London's been open, what, 2 hours? Down 2% already. Okay, might see a little rally sometime later theis week, but . . . . unlikely.

Relax, it's early in the week and very early in the day also, we're not there yet.

I expect we will finish the trading day with the Pound at around 1.5150, currently 1.5015. The trend however is securely set it seems. LRB?

[MJP]

Losing 1% an hour on the Baht so far. Okay it's only been open two hours.

Run rabbit,

Run rabbit,

Run, run, run . .

London's been open, what, 2 hours? Down 2% already. Okay, might see a little rally sometime later theis week, but . . . . unlikely.

Relax, it's early in the week and very early in the day also, we're not there yet.

I expect we will finish the trading day with the Pound at around 1.5150, currently 1.5015. The trend however is securely set it seems. LRB?

[MJP]

Looks like the Baht is the strongest performer today. Even strengthening against USD. Worrying when you consider the BOT had to sterilize 17% of the cash last year just to keep the value down.

[MJP]