Thai Baht... Why?

[bartlaz]

Someone could explain to an ignorant like me why -despite all of the political and economic problems- the thai bath is always strong?!?!?!??!

thank you

[eek]

Because its made of ceramic? Most Thais prefer a shower, however a nice relaxing bath even in the current political, economic, and hot and sticky climate, can be very relaxing.

Unless you mean Thai baht...

[LennyW]

Are you talking about an Acrylic bath or a Cast Iron bath, both equally strong in my opinion, depends on your personal taste.

[Laughing Gravy]

I am sorry but I can't resist . It is down to the strong bubble bath and soap. Also the water is very dirty and it is always laundered. I will get my hat and coat now and leave!

[samran]

he must be taking a bath on his currency exchanges

[bartlaz]

sorry!!! i was talking about Thai Baht

sorry!!!!!!!!!

[britmaveric]

Well for the most part I'd surmise currency controls are put in place.

[khunandy]

Well for the most part I'd surmise currency controls are put in place.

And Thais get a bit whiffy like everybody else...its all to do with money laundering as well,,about the baht..I like its stability, many dont but I do...

Edited February 3, 2010 by khunandy

[Tinkelbell]

Because its made of ceramic? Most Thais prefer a shower, however a nice relaxing bath even in the current political, economic, and hot and sticky climate, can be very relaxing.

Unless you mean Thai baht...

EEK, just love your sense of humor.

Thanks for starting my day with a big laugh.

[eek]

Thanks Tinkelbell!

Sorry to tease bartlaz, no harm meant, its actually a very good question. There was a thread i think a while ago on this..but would be interesting to read new opinions. Maybe a nice admin will change the topic title for ya.

[jdinasia]

Well for the most part I'd surmise currency controls are put in place.

I am curious why you would surmise that, considering the damage that a strong baht does to exports and tourism?

[britmaveric]

^stability

[IanForbes]

Because its made of ceramic? Most Thais prefer a shower, however a nice relaxing bath even in the current political, economic, and hot and sticky climate, can be very relaxing.

Unless you mean Thai baht...

I think you nailed it there, eek. typing skills are not everyone's strong point. I continually make typing errors and if I post something too quickly I always have misteaks (intentional ). And, I am supposedly a professional writer.

[jdinasia]

^stability

Still losing me ... the strength of the baht doesn't add stability does it? If so, how does it provide stability?

If exports are down because foreign markets can't afford Thai products, and if fewer tourists come because the baht at 32:1 at the dollar makes rooms far more expensive than at 43:1 at the dollar ... etc

Fewer sales ... higher unemployment ... more inflation? At least that is how it seams to me!

(I don't understand economics at this level and probably never will!)

[Gambles]

because

Thai sovereign debt is reasonable in relation to GDP and other measures

Fx reserves are solid

Trade and capital accounts are relatively healthy

Thai growth is much higher than western growth (in fact unindebted countries growth is higher than indebted countries)

Invisible earnings are improving

All of the above mean that there is more capital flow into Thailand than out of

In other words there is more net demand in all forms (from American institutions buying Thai equities to Chinese tourists using ATMs) for Baht than there is additional supply relative to demand supply in the countries whose currencies are weakending against Baht

Political and state risk are moderately priced in right now - if anyone saw Jeremy Charlesworth talking on BBC on Monday "emerging economies take part in a beauty parade for western capital and Thailand would do much better if a government could hang around here a bit longer than some of them have been doing" - i.e. the Baht and equity markets would both be stronger if those risks hadn't been there

Looking forwards (excepting any increase in political and/or state risk) you should expect that Baht will strengthen significantly longer term against indebted currencies like USD, GBP, AUD and currencies which may become more indebted (I'd expect the strong countries to bail out the weaker Euro members for political reasons). However any periods of economic weakness/stress in the west will initially support the USD and short-term bouts of Dollar strength are likely to recur.

I like SGD as a compromise

Ultimately China holds most of the currency cards

PG

[manarak]

valid question and 80% nonsense posts... *sigh*

answer to the OP:

It is not that Thai Baht that is strong, the western currencies are weak.

Thailand hasn't been hit very hard by the financial crisis.

You will find that exchange rates to baht of currencies from western countries that were not hit as strong by the financial crisis have remained more or less unchanged: for example Switzerland, Canada, Australia.

EDIT: gambles and I posted at the same time, refer to his excellent post from more detailed information.

Edited February 3, 2010 by manarak

[powderpuff]

It's about demographics. Thailand really doesn't need a huge amount of exports. It's a VERY young population.

Say the population is 80 million. Each one of them is gonna want to have 2 kids - soon.

I would want to be long Huggies.

Ergo consumer driven market. Bring on the credit cards & finance companies.

[wichianburi1]

because

Thai sovereign debt is reasonable in relation to GDP and other measures

Fx reserves are solid

Trade and capital accounts are relatively healthy

Thai growth is much higher than western growth (in fact unindebted countries growth is higher than indebted countries)

Invisible earnings are improving

All of the above mean that there is more capital flow into Thailand than out of

In other words there is more net demand in all forms (from American institutions buying Thai equities to Chinese tourists using ATMs) for Baht than there is additional supply relative to demand supply in the countries whose currencies are weakending against Baht

Political and state risk are moderately priced in right now - if anyone saw Jeremy Charlesworth talking on BBC on Monday "emerging economies take part in a beauty parade for western capital and Thailand would do much better if a government could hang around here a bit longer than some of them have been doing" - i.e. the Baht and equity markets would both be stronger if those risks hadn't been there

Looking forwards (excepting any increase in political and/or state risk) you should expect that Baht will strengthen significantly longer term against indebted currencies like USD, GBP, AUD and currencies which may become more indebted (I'd expect the strong countries to bail out the weaker Euro members for political reasons). However any periods of economic weakness/stress in the west will initially support the USD and short-term bouts of Dollar strength are likely to recur.

I like SGD as a compromise

Ultimately China holds most of the currency cards

PG

Thank you for your valuable input. We need people like you on the forum; hang in there.

[gorber]

I think you nailed it there, eek. typing skills are not everyone's strong point. I continually make typing errors and if I post something too quickly I always have misteaks (intentional ). And, I am supposedly a professional writer.

I don't think it was a typing error, he wrote it twice. Lots of people do the same thing on this forum.

I know someone (and he isn't the only one I have heard do it) who pronounces baht as bah, without the t. It doesn't matter how many times he is corrected, he carries on saying it (his wife is Thai, so he must here it often enough).

[bina]

the bath has become the baht.....

bina

[jdinasia]

I think you nailed it there, eek. typing skills are not everyone's strong point. I continually make typing errors and if I post something too quickly I always have misteaks (intentional ). And, I am supposedly a professional writer.

I don't think it was a typing error, he wrote it twice. Lots of people do the same thing on this forum.

I know someone (and he isn't the only one I have heard do it) who pronounces baht as bah, without the t. It doesn't matter how many times he is corrected, he carries on saying it (his wife is Thai, so he must here it often enough).

"here" it?

Good work Bina

[gorber]

I think you nailed it there, eek. typing skills are not everyone's strong point. I continually make typing errors and if I post something too quickly I always have misteaks (intentional ). And, I am supposedly a professional writer.

I don't think it was a typing error, he wrote it twice. Lots of people do the same thing on this forum.

I know someone (and he isn't the only one I have heard do it) who pronounces baht as bah, without the t. It doesn't matter how many times he is corrected, he carries on saying it (his wife is Thai, so he must here it often enough).

"here" it?

Good work Bina

Now THAT was a typing error, and I am very embarrassed.

Edited February 3, 2010 by gorber

[Heng]

Exports are indeed down, but a lot of exporters are still livin' fat.

[chiang mai]

It's about demographics. Thailand really doesn't need a huge amount of exports. It's a VERY young population.

Say the population is 80 million. Each one of them is gonna want to have 2 kids - soon.

I would want to be long Huggies.

Ergo consumer driven market. Bring on the credit cards & finance companies.

Is the very wrong answer!

[MAJIC]

I have also wondered the same question,it defies economics.

Most countries someone in Government F**t* and its enough to send the economy into a tailspin.

Thailand has 5 PMs in a couple of years,a Coup,Sunami,Bird Flu,Sars,rioting on the streets,civil unrest,corruption scandal after scandal to name but a few.

And what happens life carries on as if nothing had happened.

Beats me!

[tw25rw]

It's not particularly strong, just stable because they went through all that pain 12 years ago and are managing it better. It's the Western currencies that are weak, as has been the case for a couple of years. Maybe things will one day be like they were 3 years ago, but it's wishful thinking to assume that that was the natural order and that exchange rates will naturally gravitate back to that.

[MAJIC]

I think you nailed it there, eek. typing skills are not everyone's strong point. I continually make typing errors and if I post something too quickly I always have misteaks (intentional ). And, I am supposedly a professional writer.

I don't think it was a typing error, he wrote it twice. Lots of people do the same thing on this forum.

I know someone (and he isn't the only one I have heard do it) who pronounces baht as bah, without the t. It doesn't matter how many times he is corrected, he carries on saying it (his wife is Thai, so he must here it often enough).

"here" it?

Good work Bina

Now THAT was a typing error, and I am very embarrassed.

Too close together those darn keys

[MAJIC]

I think you nailed it there, eek. typing skills are not everyone's strong point. I continually make typing errors and if I post something too quickly I always have misteaks (intentional ). And, I am supposedly a professional writer.

I don't think it was a typing error, he wrote it twice. Lots of people do the same thing on this forum.

I know someone (and he isn't the only one I have heard do it) who pronounces baht as bah, without the t. It doesn't matter how many times he is corrected, he carries on saying it (his wife is Thai, so he must here it often enough).

"here" it?

Good work Bina

Now THAT was a typing error, and I am very embarrassed.

Too close together those darn keys

[tw25rw]

I have also wondered the same question,it defies economics.

Most countries someone in Government F**t* and its enough to send the economy into a tailspin.

Thailand has 5 PMs in a couple of years,a Coup,Sunami,Bird Flu,Sars,rioting on the streets,civil unrest,corruption scandal after scandal to name but a few.

And what happens life carries on as if nothing had happened.

Beats me!

Thailand is a country that doesn't attract large scale investment so there isn't a strong drive to buy and sell it's currency. Also the coups etc are almost a normal course of events and no one is terribly surprised.

[bkkath]

Thailand must have an enormous consumer debt.

Every man and his brother seems to have a new Toyota on 7 year finance agreements add to that the amount of credit cards out there now and you have a disaster waiting to happen.

I was here before the last crash in the currency and honestly don't see anything being done any differently to then.

Wages have certainly not kept pace with inflation here so with rising prices how are the Thai's going to maintain the payments on the debts.

Having bought many properties and assets in Thailand at fire sale prices after the 96 crash I have cashed biggest part of them in over the last 2 years .

Personally I see tears around the corner and an enormous slump in the economy