UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[Chaimai]

Don't hate the player; hate the game !

George Soros gives hundreds of millions to charitable causes so don't be too hard on him.

As for your assertion on the subject of expenditure, you're correct but only up to a point. By and large, if you've kept your job and not had a pay cut in the UK, you've had a pretty sweet recession. A conversation with someone in his situation might go like this:

Your mortgage payments have dived and you've got more disposable income as a result, right ??

Yep

This means you've bought more "stuff", right ??

Nope. I've been - wait for it - paying . . . down . . . debt !!

This trend will continue . . . right up until the bond markets put interest rates up for us. Think about it, all those homeowners who went out and got moody payslips or dodgy P60s to inflate their incomes. All those jokers who strapped themselves with secured loans up to 95% loan-to value from Ocean Finance to consolidate credit cards and the loan for the Audi TT.

If these people are holding on by the skin of their teeth with base rates at 0.5%, what in God's name are they gonna do when rates go up ? They can't remortgage cos the criteria's changed - no more self-certification, no more non-status, no more moody payslips or P60s and, furthermore, even if those things could still get past underwriters, the value of their properties have fallen so they're underwater.

As soon as rates go up - which they will - the sheer number of properties hitting the market will make the late 80s/early90s look like a tea party. You've got the HardenedSoul personal guarantee on that !! Lenders don't mess about when it comes to selling off repossessed stock - I remember looking at 2 bed flats in Maida Vale being sold at £55,000 in 1994/5

There may be more disposable income floating about foo those with well paid jobs but they ain't spending as the retail figures show. Trust that this party was over in early 2007 and that the hangover's just getting started.

Hardened Soul, No, NO, NO.

I could not buy (with the savings) - I WOULD NOT buy any way, the timing was not right.

The rates rates will NOT go up to the extent that it puts (most) repayments in peril. I was a bank manager when Base Rates went up to 14% ! We will NEVER see that again. +2% from where we are now over 2 years ? - look at the swap and fixed rates.

[Chaimai]

So true. I know a building society manager who says her big concern is that she says there are more than a few of her customers who were previously having problems meeting their mortgage payments and will have little chance of doing so when interest rates rise. Her bigger concern was the amount of buy-to-let landlords that primarily thought of it as an investment and will simply walk away when they see that the values are not going the way they thought.

roamer, no offence, really.

Anybody who understands the mortgage market (a local building society manager will have a limited knowledge of the bigger picture) knows that the fears quoted have pretty much evaporated. Certainly in terms of any impact on the market overall.

New products are coming out every week and credit under-writing is slowly (as it should) is softening.

If the building society concerned have worries about the ability of their customers to repay - they have loaned money badly. Northern Rock (apart from their inadequate funding strategy, and ill-founded 125% products), were actually a great lender within the industry.

The British tax payer will get their money back + some with Northern Rock.

There was not wholesale "bad lending". There was certainly some over-generous lending criteria. Self-cert lending should have been better regulated sooner. It is no use the FSA now trying to grow teeth - too late, wrong area.

If BTL borrowers throw the towel in then some of the greedy buggers get what they deserve. There will be plenty of cash buyers that will pick up the properties with ZERO loss to the lender.

[wolf5370]

In 1995 I waited 7 months to see a consultant about a back problem, I was then told it would most likely be at least another 12 months before I could have an operation. I actually ended up having it done privately in Malaysia. A few months ago my niece had a similar problem, said that she was prepared to go to any hospital within traveling distance for an MRI scan, received one 10 days later, saw her consultant just 10 days after that and was scheduled for treatment the following week.

The NHS might not be perfect now, a long way from it but I hate to think how it would be if the Tories had continued to squeeze it like a lemon.

That's one of the reasons why I will vote Labour. I doubt if I will be standing in a queue alongside chavs and benefit scroungers as they tend not to vote anyway. The myth that the Tories will crack down on immigration and put workshy Brits back to work is simply that, a myth. Their backers such as the CBI and Institute of Directors are on record numerous times as stating that immigrant workers are needed to fill the vacancies in the factories, fields and hospitals up and down the land. Tracey ain't going to go out and start pushing a mop around hospital floors, Jason would still be too stoned from last nights skunk to stand at an assembly belt. Take away their benefits and you'll just up the mugging rate quite spectacularly.

The problems are in society as a whole and sadly with our form of adversarial point-scoring political system we are never going to get to grips with it.

mmmm, you must ahve missed the news today - listening on the radio (LBC) today there was talk about the money Labour has wasted on the NHS (stuff that never happened, worked or just was a poinless cost) would have built and maintained over 200 new hospitals. When you throw massive amounts of cash at things, of course some improvements are to be expected, but should the ROI drop so drastically too?

I have several members of my family that do (or have) worked in hospitals and the NHS. They would not agree that labour's improvements have been that helpful. A lot of hospitals were forced to outsource - especially with auxillary stuff like cleaning - and we get MRSA and the like! Mixed wards. Doctors now are NOT ALLOWED to be tested for their ability to speak or understand English (a German doctir killed a patient by massively overdosing because he could not understand English). We must also remember that adcances in science and medicine also has reduced waiting lists and treatment times (MRIs for example are more available and much. much. much cheaper than just a decade ago) - people are surviving transplants and cancers that just a few years ago they didn't or were on life support for extended times. Just the amount of money thrown is not a good indication of improvement and. due to the heavy leaning on league tables and monitoring of fixed points (which means management make sure the 'points' being assessed - like patient turn over/free beds/etc, come out looking good even if patients go home earlier than they should), neither are waiting lists. The sad thing is, catching infections in hospitals, unexpected deaths in hospitals and mistakes are getting more common not less. The NHS is a mess. So, I would not personally use it as a reason to vote labour OR conservative - they both cocked it up IMHO.

Conservatives were for an Australian type points system to try and ensure that the immigrants that the UK does get are of use to the country and are an asset/benefit. Even though at the last election this was demonised by Labour and Lib Dems (as was the annual variable cap on numbers), all parties have now adopted it! The truth is that for a long time Britain has been allowing a large stream of immigration into the country without even keeping tyracks on their number let alone skill set. This has put a massive strain on all services. London now has schools were the language spoken is not Engliah (state schools!), road signs and even NHS pamphlets in multi-languages and scripts. All partied now realise that there is need to reduce the influx to a managable amount of beneficial assets to the country - and to stop throwing houses, benefits, free medical and cash at anyone who turns up at Heathrow.

Immigration is needed in the UK - for skilled jobs. Unfortunatly, the IT industry as well as such newer inductries such as call centres, career centres and other services have all been pretty much desomated with not only overseas outsoucing, but with body shopping. That is bringing cheap labour over from India etc to replace workers for monetary reasons rather than because of skills shortage. I worked in the IT inducstry in the UK and see whole computer floors replaced by Indian contractors displacing the local workers who had the skills but could not compete on salary (I am talking about large numbers of people and large companies).

Most factories are very automated in the UK - there is not that much need to bring thousands of factory workers in (indeed many Brits lost their jobs to automation). Manufacturing (the actual making rather than the owning of manufactoring comapnies) is not something that the west can compete with Asia on. It is also not the big money either - owning the companies is. Though, thanks to Labour reneging on a deal with the Chinese, the UK said goodbye to its last production car company - Rover (one of the main reasons I would never vote for "new" Labour).

I can see no reason to vote Labour at all - the real shame is there's not much better in the wings either!

[thaibeachlovers]

In 1995 I waited 7 months to see a consultant about a back problem, I was then told it would most likely be at least another 12 months before I could have an operation. I actually ended up having it done privately in Malaysia. A few months ago my niece had a similar problem, said that she was prepared to go to any hospital within traveling distance for an MRI scan, received one 10 days later, saw her consultant just 10 days after that and was scheduled for treatment the following week.

The NHS might not be perfect now, a long way from it but I hate to think how it would be if the Tories had continued to squeeze it like a lemon.

That's one of the reasons why I will vote Labour. I doubt if I will be standing in a queue alongside chavs and benefit scroungers as they tend not to vote anyway. The myth that the Tories will crack down on immigration and put workshy Brits back to work is simply that, a myth. Their backers such as the CBI and Institute of Directors are on record numerous times as stating that immigrant workers are needed to fill the vacancies in the factories, fields and hospitals up and down the land. Tracey ain't going to go out and start pushing a mop around hospital floors, Jason would still be too stoned from last nights skunk to stand at an assembly belt. Take away their benefits and you'll just up the mugging rate quite spectacularly.

The problems are in society as a whole and sadly with our form of adversarial point-scoring political system we are never going to get to grips with it.

You're dreaming if you think the NHS is "better" now!

I worked in it for the last 10 years, and my hospital was the worst managed I ever worked in over 28 years. I also worked agency in '97/'98 in several London hospitals and they were disgusting.

Since cleaning has been outsourced they were filthy ( still were in 2007, last time I had an op ), and nursing standards are plummeting. Just because the wards have lots of uniformed staff does not mean a thing if they are mostly health care assistants.

I had to have major surgery in 2006, and although had lots of tests promptly and got into hospital for the operation when needed, the after care was terrible, and I still have nightmares about it. Standards of care were virtually non existent. The only decent nursing care I received was from an old school nurse who trained in hospital back many years ago ( during the Tory government years ).

Incidentally, I had minor surgery in 2004, and had to wait over a year.

IMO, the only reason operations got more prompt is that a lot of surgery is done as day case now. What was done as a 3 day ( admission to a bed day 1, surgery day 2 and discharge day 3 ) procedure in my hospital is now done as a day case with no overnight stays. Operations that required weeks of post op nursing care now require just a few days at most.

Just look at how many hospital beds have been lost over the past 10 years and you will get the idea.

However, while medical science has speeded up the mechanics of health care, the human side, nurses, doctors etc are suffering as the workload and speed has increased dramatically. All the "policies" new labour has brought in are being carried out by overstressed and EXTREMELY UNHAPPY staff. I took early retirement because it's just not worth working in the NHS anymore, and lots of others were wanting to do the same. Not one nurse ( not in management ) I spoke to would have continued nursing if able to get an equal paying job in some other occupation. Luckily I was at the age where early retirement is still an option, while younger ones are now forced to work an extra 5 years. I pity them!

Also, now that gordon's not throwing money at the NHS anymore, I think things will get bad really soon, so I'm even more pleased that I'm out of it. IMO, most of the money he threw at the NHS was wasted anyway, though the propaganda machine was working overtime to try and fool the public that things were getting better.

Lastly, over the past 10 years, due to the policy of paying wage increases below inflation, and the ever increasing workload, I ended up working twice as hard for less real income.

Getting out of the NHS was the best thing I ever did.

However, you are correct in saying that the problems are in society as a whole. IMO, till we get a government that brings back discipline to the young, society will continue to be terrorised by out of control feral youths. Anyone been on a bus with a load of school kids knows what I'm talking about, and you know you can't say anything or they'll beat you up, and you'll be the one going to jail for offending the poor little darlings. It really makes me sick, but as long as the gutless bunch of lily livered has beens in parliament continue to pander to the great unwashed, it's not going to change.

Singapore has the right idea. No feral youths there! ( Remember the foreign vandal that damaged cars getting caned? dam_n fine. )

Thailand has the right idea with not paying perfectly fit people to sit at home and watch TV just because all the jobs are a few miles away. I especially like that they don't pay young girls to keep their bastards. Excellent!

[oMega69]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

[thaibeachlovers]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

Perhaps so, but as most mongers appear to be Brits, less Brits = less ladees = less bars = less Pattaya fun.

Unless of course you want Pattaya to become just another Hua Hin sh*t hole clone.

[Edmond]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

I can sympathies with your unfortunate predicament. It is quite transparent the Brits have the best ladies in town, it must be a right sickner being a septic.

[mommysboy]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

I can sympathies with your unfortunate predicament. It is quite transparent the Brits have the best ladies in town, it must be a right sickner being a septic.

Bit of a 'tanker' too.

[chiang mai]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

If only one remains, YOU will have stiff competition.

[Slaps]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

If only one remains, YOU will have stiff competition.

If only one remains, YOU will have STIFF competition.

[HardenedSoul]

Hardened Soul, No, NO, NO.

I could not buy (with the savings) - I WOULD NOT buy any way, the timing was not right.

The rates rates will NOT go up to the extent that it puts (most) repayments in peril. I was a bank manager when Base Rates went up to 14% ! We will NEVER see that again. +2% from where we are now over 2 years ? - look at the swap and fixed rates.

Of course they will ! Britain's situation is far removed from that of Greece as far its ability to set monetary policy is concerned and therein lies the real problem. During the worst days of its debt crisis, the yield on 10 yr Greek bonds reached a figure nearly twice that of a 10 yr German bund. If Greece had its own currency, it would probably have devalued it but, as we know, Greek monetary policy is set in Brussels, not Athens and this, coupled with the collective financial clout of Germany, France and other North European EU members, is why their solution, painful as it is for Greeks, will work.

Britain, on the other hand, sets its own monetary policy. We don't have a Dutch or German uncle standing behind us. We will print, print and print some more when potential gilt buyers start asking for big yields for lending us money. Ok so the maturities on our long-dates bonds mean that we probably won't have to worry about rolling over existing debt but having to raise £600 billion over the next 3 years is not going to be easy, nor will it be cheap.

With a devalued currency comes the spectre of inflation and with inflation comes higher rates. The die is cast and one way or another, Brits are going to suffer. If I was back in London now, I'd keep a Glock under the pillow.

[Spee]

Hardened Soul, No, NO, NO.

I could not buy (with the savings) - I WOULD NOT buy any way, the timing was not right.

The rates rates will NOT go up to the extent that it puts (most) repayments in peril. I was a bank manager when Base Rates went up to 14% ! We will NEVER see that again. +2% from where we are now over 2 years ? - look at the swap and fixed rates.

Of course they will ! Britain's situation is far removed from that of Greece as far its ability to set monetary policy is concerned and therein lies the real problem. During the worst days of its debt crisis, the yield on 10 yr Greek bonds reached a figure nearly twice that of a 10 yr German bund. If Greece had its own currency, it would probably have devalued it but, as we know, Greek monetary policy is set in Brussels, not Athens and this, coupled with the collective financial clout of Germany, France and other North European EU members, is why their solution, painful as it is for Greeks, will work.

Britain, on the other hand, sets its own monetary policy. We don't have a Dutch or German uncle standing behind us. We will print, print and print some more when potential gilt buyers start asking for big yields for lending us money. Ok so the maturities on our long-dates bonds mean that we probably won't have to worry about rolling over existing debt but having to raise £600 billion over the next 3 years is not going to be easy, nor will it be cheap.

With a devalued currency comes the spectre of inflation and with inflation comes higher rates. The die is cast and one way or another, Brits are going to suffer. If I was back in London now, I'd keep a Glock under the pillow.

Spot on HS ... IMHO. Combine that with the fact that the US Fed has been artificially suppressing interest rates while keeping the printing presses running on double overtime, it is the time proven recipe for stag-inflation, runaway inflation with a stagnant economy crippled by excessive debt. The US, UK and Euro countries haven't seen the worst of it yet. The Brits won't suffer alone. The exchange rate with the Thai baht may get better or get worse, but that is not the question or the concern.

Edited March 14, 2010 by Spee

[mommysboy]

Hardened Soul, No, NO, NO.

I could not buy (with the savings) - I WOULD NOT buy any way, the timing was not right.

The rates rates will NOT go up to the extent that it puts (most) repayments in peril. I was a bank manager when Base Rates went up to 14% ! We will NEVER see that again. +2% from where we are now over 2 years ? - look at the swap and fixed rates.

Of course they will ! Britain's situation is far removed from that of Greece as far its ability to set monetary policy is concerned and therein lies the real problem. During the worst days of its debt crisis, the yield on 10 yr Greek bonds reached a figure nearly twice that of a 10 yr German bund. If Greece had its own currency, it would probably have devalued it but, as we know, Greek monetary policy is set in Brussels, not Athens and this, coupled with the collective financial clout of Germany, France and other North European EU members, is why their solution, painful as it is for Greeks, will work.

Britain, on the other hand, sets its own monetary policy. We don't have a Dutch or German uncle standing behind us. We will print, print and print some more when potential gilt buyers start asking for big yields for lending us money. Ok so the maturities on our long-dates bonds mean that we probably won't have to worry about rolling over existing debt but having to raise £600 billion over the next 3 years is not going to be easy, nor will it be cheap.

With a devalued currency comes the spectre of inflation and with inflation comes higher rates. The die is cast and one way or another, Brits are going to suffer. If I was back in London now, I'd keep a Glock under the pillow.

Spot on HS ... IMHO. Combine that with the fact that the US Fed has been artificially suppressing interest rates while keeping the printing presses running on double overtime, it is the time proven recipe for stag-inflation, runaway inflation with a stagnant economy crippled by excessive debt. The US, UK and Euro countries haven't seen the worst of it yet. The Brits won't suffer alone. The exchange rate with the Thai baht may get better or get worse, but that is not the question or the concern.

It's absolute conjecture!

[bkksteviejai]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

Perhaps so, but as most mongers appear to be Brits, less Brits = less ladees = less bars = less Pattaya fun.

Unless of course you want Pattaya to become just another Hua Hin sh*t hole clone.

You wouldn't class pattaya as a sh*t hole then?......it's like Bognor with pikeys and kiddy fiddlers..........

[mommysboy]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

Perhaps so, but as most mongers appear to be Brits, less Brits = less ladees = less bars = less Pattaya fun.

Unless of course you want Pattaya to become just another Hua Hin sh*t hole clone.

You wouldn't class pattaya as a sh*t hole then?......it's like Bognor with pikeys and kiddy fiddlers..........

It's a great place with lots of things to do and places to go. Great expat scene, good food, budget prices and it's alive and happening.

What's a pikey by the way?, sorry don't talk prole!

[chiang mai]

Hardened Soul, No, NO, NO.

I could not buy (with the savings) - I WOULD NOT buy any way, the timing was not right.

The rates rates will NOT go up to the extent that it puts (most) repayments in peril. I was a bank manager when Base Rates went up to 14% ! We will NEVER see that again. +2% from where we are now over 2 years ? - look at the swap and fixed rates.

Of course they will ! Britain's situation is far removed from that of Greece as far its ability to set monetary policy is concerned and therein lies the real problem. During the worst days of its debt crisis, the yield on 10 yr Greek bonds reached a figure nearly twice that of a 10 yr German bund. If Greece had its own currency, it would probably have devalued it but, as we know, Greek monetary policy is set in Brussels, not Athens and this, coupled with the collective financial clout of Germany, France and other North European EU members, is why their solution, painful as it is for Greeks, will work.

Britain, on the other hand, sets its own monetary policy. We don't have a Dutch or German uncle standing behind us. We will print, print and print some more when potential gilt buyers start asking for big yields for lending us money. Ok so the maturities on our long-dates bonds mean that we probably won't have to worry about rolling over existing debt but having to raise £600 billion over the next 3 years is not going to be easy, nor will it be cheap.

With a devalued currency comes the spectre of inflation and with inflation comes higher rates. The die is cast and one way or another, Brits are going to suffer. If I was back in London now, I'd keep a Glock under the pillow.

Spot on HS ... IMHO. Combine that with the fact that the US Fed has been artificially suppressing interest rates while keeping the printing presses running on double overtime, it is the time proven recipe for stag-inflation, runaway inflation with a stagnant economy crippled by excessive debt. The US, UK and Euro countries haven't seen the worst of it yet. The Brits won't suffer alone. The exchange rate with the Thai baht may get better or get worse, but that is not the question or the concern.

It's absolute conjecture!

The problem with all of this, where we are now and what might happen in the future, is that it's all conjecture - (a proposition that is unproven but appears correct and has not been disproven) - might we even replace it with the word "guess"? It's all uncharted territory and no, we haven't been here before - we've seen elements before of what we are seeing now but the global context, the scale, the responses and the dynamics are all very new and different. So before you dismiss any one possible outcome it's good to remember that any one of them, even the most absurd sounding, might just prove to be correct.

BTW: a pikey is slang for a gypsy.

Edited March 14, 2010 by chiang mai

[Abrak]

BTW: a pikey is slang for a gypsy.

It isnt 'prole' either unlike 'kiddy fiddler' - it has been a part of the english language for 300 years or more.

[chiang mai]

BTW: a pikey is slang for a gypsy.

It isnt 'prole' either unlike 'kiddy fiddler' - it has been a part of the english language for 300 years or more.

As in turn"pike" or one who travels, goes back to the 1600's. OK trivia time over, back on track!

The Pound was falling against USD (and the Baht) and it bottomed last week around 1.47 and then allegedly, a positive poll showed that the Conservatives were actually well in the lead so the Pound bounced up to 1.52 - said poll was obviously taken seriously despite the fact that only 2,000 people were polled but there you go.

Well, this weekend had produced the results of a series of polls that show that the earlier survey was not typical and that the obverse is now true, it seems the Conservatives lead has shrunk to the lowest in two years and there's much talk about hung Parliaments (again) and coalition governments. (I will understand entirely if readers finding all of this to be too boring and wish to tune out or end their lives out of frustration).

So, all things being equal we should expect tomorrow that the Pound will begin to fall against USD once again, or maybe not! In another poll it seems that 35% of UK residents surveyed were actually in favour of a hung Parliament! This leads me to believe that at least 35% of UK residents don't know what the term means, or, they've all sold their Pounds and are looking to make a quick profit on a falling Pound, who knows.

Anyway, in the next life I'm going into the poll business because it certainly seems like a nice little earner, and talking of polls - did anyone read the article about the Bernard Mathews factory in Norfolk that now will only employ Polish speaking people? Whatever it takes to sell newspapers I suppose, and turkeys also it seems.

Edited March 14, 2010 by chiang mai

[Abrak]

BTW: a pikey is slang for a gypsy.

It isnt 'prole' either unlike 'kiddy fiddler' - it has been a part of the english language for 300 years or more.

As in turn"pike" or one who travels, goes back to the 1600's.

Well back to trivia - I thought it was just the derogatory name for the person who took the the 'toll' at the 'pike' rather than the person who had been through many.

Perhaps more worrying the next UK Government might give a good impression of being a 'kiddy fiddler.'

[roamer]

Think people also tend to forget the little proviso that polls come with along the lines of "if this was repeated on a national basis, the lead...the swing etc. With the voting system in the UK you pretty much have to wait for an exit poll to get any degree of accuracy. Unless the Tories can start to take seats in the inner cities they can never get any form of majority that allows them to govern. They certainly can't claim to be a national party with 194 out of 198 of their MPs representing English constituencies. When I look at Cameron's front bench and note that 15 out of the 18 went to Eton I don't think they can claim to represent me either. Even assuming they manage to form a majority government it would be so internally divided, there isa group of at least 40 MPs, the Cornerstone group which have very right wing policies and certainly want nothing to do with the touchy feely image that Cameron wants to present. Far from being a strong government it would be weakened by the accommodations it would have to make. A hung parliament ? Just how long would the Lib Dems be prepared to hang in with the Tories....I think we would see another election by the end of the year.

[mommysboy]

Thanks for info ref pikey. and yes a very astute posting by CM ref everything is conjecture.

If an issue such as which party, lets call them Mcdonalds or Burger King, will come to power or not, that tells us something of the volatility out there and surely this is not about fundamentals !. Meanwhile a country not too far from civil war has a currency that goes from strength to strength.

What this weekend has told me about Thai figures is that I was right in not trusting them at all. I was first alerted to this when dealing with Thai health figures related to the big illness with the little name, then Thai GDP tourism. Did you see the amazing claims ref head counts this weekend?

How are we to really make a comparison between Baht and ounce! when we can't rely on stats. at all.

[Basil B]

BTW: a pikey is slang for a gypsy.

It isnt 'prole' either unlike 'kiddy fiddler' - it has been a part of the english language for 300 years or more.

As in turn"pike" or one who travels, goes back to the 1600's. OK trivia time over, back on track!

The Pound was falling against USD (and the Baht) and it bottomed last week around 1.47 and then allegedly, a positive poll showed that the Conservatives were actually well in the lead so the Pound bounced up to 1.52 - said poll was obviously taken seriously despite the fact that only 2,000 people were polled but there you go.

Well, this weekend had produced the results of a series of polls that show that the earlier survey was not typical and that the obverse is now true, it seems the Conservatives lead has shrunk to the lowest in two years and there's much talk about hung Parliaments (again) and coalition governments. (I will understand entirely if readers finding all of this to be too boring and wish to tune out or end their lives out of frustration).

So, all things being equal we should expect tomorrow that the Pound will begin to fall against USD once again, or maybe not! In another poll it seems that 35% of UK residents surveyed were actually in favour of a hung Parliament! This leads me to believe that at least 35% of UK residents don't know what the term means, or, they've all sold their Pounds and are looking to make a quick profit on a falling Pound, who knows.

Anyway, in the next life I'm going into the poll business because it certainly seems like a nice little earner, and talking of polls - did anyone read the article about the Bernard Mathews factory in Norfolk that now will only employ Polish speaking people? Whatever it takes to sell newspapers I suppose, and turkeys also it seems.

So what you are saying is if the Tories had a leader with some creditability rather than this guy they have now who belongs in a circus with a load of grease paint on the pound would be up to 70+...

Edited March 14, 2010 by Basil B

[thaibeachlovers]

great great less UK dudes in Pattaya

Perhaps so, but as most mongers appear to be Brits, less Brits = less ladees = less bars = less Pattaya fun.

Unless of course you want Pattaya to become just another Hua Hin sh*t hole clone.

You wouldn't class pattaya as a sh*t hole then?......it's like Bognor with pikeys and kiddy fiddlers..........

It's all in the eye of the beholder.

Everytime I roll into Pattaya on the back of a baht bus, and see those rows and rows of bar beers, I know I'm in the greatest place on earth. Who cares if it's got problems; in the dark they're invisible.

I very much doubt it's like Bognor. If it were, I wouldn't have spent all my holidays for the past 10 years travelling to LOS.

As for the "kiddy fiddlers", I doubt more of that goes on in Pattaya than back in any city in Blighty.

[chiang mai]

BTW: a pikey is slang for a gypsy.

It isnt 'prole' either unlike 'kiddy fiddler' - it has been a part of the english language for 300 years or more.

As in turn"pike" or one who travels, goes back to the 1600's. OK trivia time over, back on track!

The Pound was falling against USD (and the Baht) and it bottomed last week around 1.47 and then allegedly, a positive poll showed that the Conservatives were actually well in the lead so the Pound bounced up to 1.52 - said poll was obviously taken seriously despite the fact that only 2,000 people were polled but there you go.

Well, this weekend had produced the results of a series of polls that show that the earlier survey was not typical and that the obverse is now true, it seems the Conservatives lead has shrunk to the lowest in two years and there's much talk about hung Parliaments (again) and coalition governments. (I will understand entirely if readers finding all of this to be too boring and wish to tune out or end their lives out of frustration).

So, all things being equal we should expect tomorrow that the Pound will begin to fall against USD once again, or maybe not! In another poll it seems that 35% of UK residents surveyed were actually in favour of a hung Parliament! This leads me to believe that at least 35% of UK residents don't know what the term means, or, they've all sold their Pounds and are looking to make a quick profit on a falling Pound, who knows.

Anyway, in the next life I'm going into the poll business because it certainly seems like a nice little earner, and talking of polls - did anyone read the article about the Bernard Mathews factory in Norfolk that now will only employ Polish speaking people? Whatever it takes to sell newspapers I suppose, and turkeys also it seems.

So what you are saying is if the Tories had a leader with some creditability rather than this guy they have now who belongs in a circus with a load of grease paint on the pound would be up to 70+...

Well no, not even remotely!

I think that if either party were to win outright and have a clear majority then that would be good news for the Pound and as long as that party were to do sensible things then the Pound could hold at around 50 for some time. But if there's a hung Parliament then we could easily see the Pound slide to around 40, add to that scenario a layer of bad decision/policy making and things start to look pretty ugly. Wild cards exist however, the future of USD is one and the political state in Thailand is another, as is the state and robustness of economic recovery in the UK and globally, all too much to try and second guess the outcome. But 70+, no, not in our collective lifetimes.

[Bobr]

Neeranam says if the baht drops further then some of the undesirables will be kept away or go home.Does that mean if your pension is not high you are an undesirable?

I would not give him the satisfaction of responding to his trollish remark. There is always someone who gets his little manhood excited by typing hateful and useless things.

[davidrkw]

I was pullin for you Brits to make a stand against the Euro but it looks like you better just fold

EUR is about to bounce , Gpb is heading for the south pole, then the Eur will follow, followed by the USD. Paper currencies ?????????? I think not.

Once the UK election is out of the way and if there are genuine and credible moves to reduce the deficit, then the pound will recover somewhat

against the Baht. The BOT are considering a rate rise soon (from 2% now) this is bound to help the Baht. Interest rates are unlikly to rise in the

UK before 2011. The BOT can not allow the Baht to appreciate too much as it's economy is still 60% reliant on exports. If China allowed the Yuan

to float, this would give more room for the Baht to go up.

[mommysboy]

I was pullin for you Brits to make a stand against the Euro but it looks like you better just fold

EUR is about to bounce , Gpb is heading for the south pole, then the Eur will follow, followed by the USD. Paper currencies ?????????? I think not.

Once the UK election is out of the way and if there are genuine and credible moves to reduce the deficit, then the pound will recover somewhat

against the Baht. The BOT are considering a rate rise soon (from 2% now) this is bound to help the Baht. Interest rates are unlikly to rise in the

UK before 2011. The BOT can not allow the Baht to appreciate too much as it's economy is still 60% reliant on exports. If China allowed the Yuan

to float, this would give more room for the Baht to go up.

It may recover before then given the sounds coming out of both camps and better economic news, but what sort of recovery ?, my guess is 1.50-60 to the dollar is about right and so we're not looking at anything more than 50-52bt until the baht comes off its ridiculous highs, or the dollar sinks to its true value.

Currencies can make a habit of maintaining marked over/undervaluation for many years, eg, pound was overvalued for a decade or more, so what's to say it won't do the same in reverse. Contrariwise wth the baht, was it ever worth only 75bt?

[cavelight]

This morning Krungsri are doing 47.47

Ouch

[thaibeachlovers]

Well, we all complain now the pound is so low, but how low does it have to be to keep us away?

Or, to put it another way, how low do the tourist/ expat numbers have to go to make the Thai government do something about the forex rate?

Personally, I'll keep coming as long as I still have enough money to get here and stay in some sort of accomodation and eat. However, it'll be interesting to see how long I keep the TGF as the money I have available to pay for sick buffalos etc disappears.

Have to say though, if I was 30 years younger, and just starting off on my travels, I don't think I'd be returning to LOS while the pound is such rubbish value.

[mommysboy]

Well, we all complain now the pound is so low, but how low does it have to be to keep us away?

Or, to put it another way, how low do the tourist/ expat numbers have to go to make the Thai government do something about the forex rate?

Personally, I'll keep coming as long as I still have enough money to get here and stay in some sort of accomodation and eat. However, it'll be interesting to see how long I keep the TGF as the money I have available to pay for sick buffalos etc disappears.

Have to say though, if I was 30 years younger, and just starting off on my travels, I don't think I'd be returning to LOS while the pound is such rubbish value.

We are told that tourism is not important to Thailand, clearly the welfare of the people and environement too. It seems to be set on its way as Asia's assembly plant. I really think the powers that truly be want us farangs out.

Regards your commitment, ok, but what if you fall ill?

Cambodia seems to be coming up the ranking. Where else would you go?