Thailand's Political Landmark Talks End Without Resolution

[johndpoole]

I would be curious to know whether the negotiations were broadcast and viewed live by the Red Shirt mob down at the bridge. My Thai is not good enough to be able to judge personally the quality of the performances at the negotiations - but talking to some low-level Thai friends, they seemed to think that PM Abhisit did a particularly good job - and felt that if the Red Shirt leaders allowed their followers to see the broadcast, it may have been the first time that most of the protesters had heard an intelligent presentation of the government's position - instead of one-sided propaganda by their own demagogues.

It would be interesting if this meeting ended up working against the Red Shirt leaders - by allowing their supporters to hear the position of the sitting government presented in a reasonable way.

Abhisit is trying to run the country - right now - for all the Thai people. The Red Shirt leaders are simply directing a relatively small, one-sided mob, trying to tear down a functioning government. It is probably much easier to tear something down, than to create something better in its place.

Good question. Come to think of it, I bet they previously would switch channels every time he comes on just out of taught distrust .. if they have TV's in their village that pick-up stations down here.

[shawndoc]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

[TheOldWolf]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Bringing thaksin back?

[Rinrada]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Free Elections,Democracy....................and other things that we cant discuss....

[TheOldWolf]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Free Elections,Democracy....................and other things that we cant discuss....

And what is the red defination of "free election"? Vote buying?

[yoshiwara]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Bringing thaksin back?

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Free Elections,Democracy....................and other things that we cant discuss....

Yes, well since you studiously ignored the OldWolf contribution above yours, one might assume that the other things that you can't discuss centres around the No. 1 objective of bringing back Thaksin to continue his rotten corruption.

You can't discuss it, but it sits there like a rotting plum in your shopping bag.

Edited March 28, 2010 by yoshiwara

[johndpoole]

The nationally televised meeting was principally showmanship.

The three Reds present wanted legitimacy, speaking nationwide to the PM, and wanted to present their demands to all of the population to hear - but above all to be seen speaking from the high position of one on one with the PM.

Abhisit wanted to show he is a listener, that he will meet with Thais in opposition because they are Thais who deserve respect and consideration, not bogus eradication campaigns such as Thaksin's "War on Drugs" or lawsuit responses, but more than that to show that his interest as PM is for the entire nation domestically and globally.

The Reds took part because it justified their continuing Bangkok street campaigns and to themselves provides a basis to continue their public disorder - the Reds' leaders and hard core get encouragement to revive their cause and next time to bring more peasants to Bangkok. However, Abhisit is bending over backwards to try to do what Obama promised but can't ever do (another discussion), to show he can bring all sides to the negotiating table to talk and to determine if any resolution is possible. Abhisit appears reasonable, fair and open while clear minded.

Indeed, Abhisit pointedly inquired when a PM has met with opponents, much less in a national public forum to debate, discuss, hash out views and to try to reason together. This is like the first nationally televised debate between two candidates for president in 1960, Kennedy-Nixon. In short, Abhisit presented himself as the leader of all Thais, while the Redshirt leaders presented themselves as, well, leaders of the Redshirts. And who pays the Redshirts? Who do the Redshirt leaders look out for most besides themselves? The question answers itselfsimply by looking towards Dubai (from where Thaksin's phone calls are monitored).

Edit to add: Pres Obama has had an unprecedented nationally televised meeting with Republicans only at their Party conferences and with Republians and Democrats in the White House. Obama has now had a rush of successes domestic and foreign after long and tuff slogging in the mud. People subsequently agree Obama's successful formula is persistence and perseverance both in his long campaign to win his Party's nomination and then to win the presidency. To paraphrase, meet the enemy so you can see the whites of their eyes.

Great thoughts and reasoning but I still am against having these talks presented live. The only guaranteed good thing that can come out of it for the PM is to be heard by the Red Shirts. The rest is all a gamble and God knows what can happen tomorrow if he doesn't cave to their demands (if he does that is worse). What they may say or how they may react to show the PM in a bad light. I just don't believe these Red Shirts are all that stupid and believe they will somehow try to make him look week and small and not a leader worthy of respect tomorrow. Grant it that it might backfire on them but he has given them credibility and put them on his level now by doing this as opposed to behind closed doors and then both sides coming out making statements. I believe he won and the gamble paid off today but there is no reason to meet again live on TV tomorrow if you already know the Red Shirts (as they have made clear) will not yield in anyway to their demands. Why sit with them again in public eye to give them the stage to do something to embarrass the PM or drum up a rally cry. Simply meet before hand off-camera and verify if they are will to be flexible under any circumstance. If not, then let them both make their own statements to the press as to why more meetings would be pointless.

This is NOT an election campaign or debate and the Reds are already causing it to be one and therefor closer to getting elections held before their scheduled time. The Thai government needs to show more backbone and strength if it is ever to quell the minority of unhappy people who believe that civil disruption can lead to immediate changes in the government, laws and leadership.

I don't think anybody could argue that what would be best for Thailand (now) would be to simply wait for the elections to come. There has to be some stability, prep work and actual candidates campaigning before an election can occur as well as implementation of mechanisms in place to make sure elections are not questioned.

The government has been very nice and accommodating to the Red Shirts and now it is time to work on Thailand as a whole and not focus on a group of unflexible people who refuse to show any patients or concern for Thailand as a whole. He has given them their space and time on TV and now it is time to show strength and not allow an atmosphere where the leader of this country needs to sleep in an army bunker and where tourists are scared to visit.

Obama tried to reason with Republicans over healthcare but in the end he got it through despite them and without a single vote from their side. He showed he was willing to talk and listen to them as the PM has but when Obama knew in the end it would be a NO, he used the law to do what he thought right. Just as he is doing now to make appointments with congress on vacation to avoid the BS from the Republicans. The Republicans are not nearly as bad as the Reds but both have the same goal of making current leadership ineffective by continued distractions and uncooperation.

[lannarebirth]

This may be the most important thing that happened today:

Thousands Gather at BTS Siam to Oppose Red-shirts

BANGKOK: -- Thousands of Bangkok residents gather at the Siam BTS station to oppose the red-shirt group and a House dissolution.

So, where'd they come from? Was it spontaneous, when Jatuporn announced to "get your weapons ready"? If organized, by whom?

Edited March 28, 2010 by lannarebirth

[johndpoole]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

I am not sure if this is propaganda or not but a number of Thais have told me they know Thaksin wanted to dissolved the monarchy and create a situation were he could basically be ruler for life. I am sure the constitutional version would have been worded differently but in their heart of hearts they believe this is what he wanted. Now how it got into their hearts, I am not sure.

[BigWheelMan]

Its a sad thing in these threads when you point out something that a certain red shirter wont agree with, you instantly are branded a yellow shirt. For the record Rainman, I'm neither, so you are wrong assuming what you previously assumed. You really need to get over yourself.

These talks are always going to end without resolution because neither side is prepared to listen to the other side.......its as simple as that really.

I wouldn’t say that both sides are not listening, but rather at this stage, none of them will agree to any sort of compromise, nor is this likely to happen.

Thaksin or whatever he calls himself now, is trying every way possible to gain back power and doesn’t give a toss who gets caught up in the flack and this present government that stands for the minority who have the majority of power in Thailand, want to hold on to their status and greatly fear Thaksin and his red shirts who more represent the poorer majority, therefore giving the working classes more say and clout over the infrastructure of Thailand, less power of course to the so called elite.

Both sides now realise that the only chance Thaksin has of gaining back his ministerial throne will be by civil war and this is the reason why the red shirts are egging on the army to come out with all guns blazing and the military continues to back off and retreat.

Scary stuff, which means unless both sides agree to some kind of compromise, civil war maybe inevitable.

[Jingthing]

If there is civil war, the reds will lose. That is because it is the reds (who are based quite far from Bangkok) against the entire rest of Thailand. It is not the reds vs. yellows. In that case, the reds would romp. They would also have to "take" Bangkok and that is not their home turf. I agree Thaksin is all about taking back power without any regard for the cost to his country. As Thaksin remains puppet master of the reds, how do you negotiate in good faith with that?

Edited March 28, 2010 by Jingthing

[johndpoole]

QUESTION ...

Anybody know why the Taxi drivers seem to all be Red Shits or at least sympathize with them?

Is it because many are from Issan? My GF just simply says it is because the folks who control the Taxi companies were on Thaksin's payroll.

Also wondering if the Issan "working" girls from up North are typically on the Red side of the issue?

I live in the Huay Kwang area where a number of freelance & massage "working girls" also live and all of them I speak to say they are very opposed to the Red Shirts. The girls I know are all local or from the South as far as I know. But I get the impression even the Issan working girls are against the Red Shirts.

I just find it interesting that I don't know anybody who I speak with down here who sides with the Reds beyond the taxi drivers. Just trying to understand if it is a poor thing or more of a regional thing in terms of them getting support.

EDIT: Funny thing is that I only know one person who is a yellow shirt too or at least was but all seem to simply describe the Reds as "crazy"

Edited March 28, 2010 by johndpoole

[BigWheelMan]

QUESTION ...

Anybody know why the Taxi drivers seem to all be Red Shits or at least sympathize with them?

Is it because many are from Issan? My GF just simply says it is because the folks who control the Taxi companies were on Thaksin's payroll.

Also wondering if the Issan "working" girls from up North are typically on the Red side of the issue?

I live in the Huay Kwang area where a number of freelance & massage "working girls" also live and all of them I speak to say they are very opposed to the Red Shirts. The girls I know are all local or from the South as far as I know. But I get the impression even the Issan working girls are against the Red Shirts.

I just find it interesting that I don't know anybody who I speak with down here who sides with the Reds beyond the taxi drivers. Just trying to understand if it is a poor thing or more of a regional thing in terms of them getting support.

EDIT: Funny thing is that I only know one person who is a yellow shirt too or at least was but all seem to simply describe the Reds as "crazy"

Taking an educated guess, It`s probably because Khun Thaksin imposed major clamp downs on prostitutes and the sex industries of Thailand. Especially up here in the North and North East provinces.

He also came down hard on mafia owned sex establishments and drug dealers, which is a big plus in his favour.

[mazeltov]

QUESTION ...

Anybody know why the Taxi drivers seem to all be Red Shits or at least sympathize with them?

Is it because many are from Issan? My GF just simply says it is because the folks who control the Taxi companies were on Thaksin's payroll.

Also wondering if the Issan "working" girls from up North are typically on the Red side of the issue?

I live in the Huay Kwang area where a number of freelance & massage "working girls" also live and all of them I speak to say they are very opposed to the Red Shirts. The girls I know are all local or from the South as far as I know. But I get the impression even the Issan working girls are against the Red Shirts.

I just find it interesting that I don't know anybody who I speak with down here who sides with the Reds beyond the taxi drivers. Just trying to understand if it is a poor thing or more of a regional thing in terms of them getting support.

it is an issue of access to information and cognitive biases.

[johndpoole]

Abhisit had ruled out talks earlier Sunday, but made an about-face later in the day and looked visibly uneasy throughout much of the three-hour meeting with the Red Shirt leaders, held at a Bangkok educational institute.

He did...!?!

I noticed a bit of a smirk when Juttaporn tired to convince us all again Thaksin is not involved, but I wouldn't use the word "uneasy" to describe his expression.

What I did notice though is he needed a shave. I have to wonder if living in the barracks has really put this much strain on him or it was a subtle sign of disrespect that he didn't need to shave for this group.

But I did find it interesting that the only chairs available for the meeting were Yellow, lol.

[TheOldWolf]

QUESTION ...

Anybody know why the Taxi drivers seem to all be Red Shits or at least sympathize with them?

Is it because many are from Issan? My GF just simply says it is because the folks who control the Taxi companies were on Thaksin's payroll.

Also wondering if the Issan "working" girls from up North are typically on the Red side of the issue?

I live in the Huay Kwang area where a number of freelance & massage "working girls" also live and all of them I speak to say they are very opposed to the Red Shirts. The girls I know are all local or from the South as far as I know. But I get the impression even the Issan working girls are against the Red Shirts.

I just find it interesting that I don't know anybody who I speak with down here who sides with the Reds beyond the taxi drivers. Just trying to understand if it is a poor thing or more of a regional thing in terms of them getting support.

EDIT: Funny thing is that I only know one person who is a yellow shirt too or at least was but all seem to simply describe the Reds as "crazy"

Taking an educated guess, It`s probably because Khun Thaksin imposed major clamp downs on prostitutes and the sex industries of Thailand. Especially up here in the North and North East provinces.

He also came down hard on mafia owned sex establishments and drug dealers, which is a big plus in his favour.

Do you include killing people without trial in that big plus????

[Irene]

Make a deal and get Thailand back on track. That is what is good for the thai people. For us Farang, lets hope they keep airing this crap and the protests continue to weaken the bhat.

Baht has been strengthening and expected to reach 31.5 baht per us dollar by end year. Overseas inflow of funds to Thailand stock market for the last 20 trading days has been predominantly net buyers in the market causing almost 10% rise in the index. To a big surprise to most Thais, the disturbance of the red=shirts has not caused any concern to the overseas investors. It is the locals who have been selling most.

I also wonder why the foreign investor have so much confidence in the Thai market?

[VegasVic]

If there is civil war, the reds will lose. That is because it is the reds (who are based quite far from Bangkok) against the entire rest of Thailand. It is not the reds vs. yellows. In that case, the reds would romp. They would also have to "take" Bangkok and that is not their home turf. I agree Thaksin is all about taking back power without any regard for the cost to his country. As Thaksin remains puppet master of the reds, how do you negotiate in good faith with that?

"the reds will lose...that is because it is the reds against the rest of Thailand" Actually Jing it is entirely possible that "the rest of Thailand" may be far more sypathetic to the reds and what they hope to achieve than you seem to believe Lets see how this all plays out, but I think if there were a free and fair election tomorrow you might be very surprised as to the results

[anotherpeter]

I wouldn't say that both sides are not listening, but rather at this stage, none of them will agree to any sort of compromise, nor is this likely to happen.

Thaksin or whatever he calls himself now, is trying every way possible to gain back power and doesn't give a toss who gets caught up in the flack and this present government that stands for the minority who have the majority of power in Thailand, want to hold on to their status and greatly fear Thaksin and his red shirts who more represent the poorer majority, therefore giving the working classes more say and clout over the infrastructure of Thailand, less power of course to the so called elite.

Both sides now realise that the only chance Thaksin has of gaining back his ministerial throne will be by civil war and this is the reason why the red shirts are egging on the army to come out with all guns blazing and the military continues to back off and retreat.

Scary stuff, which means unless both sides agree to some kind of compromise, civil war maybe inevitable.

"this present government that stands for the minority who have the majority of power in Thailand, want to hold on to their status and greatly fear Thaksin and his red shirts who more represent the poorer majority"

I would think that the red shirts are very much in the minority, and the government is actually representing the majority here in Thailand.

[TheOldWolf]

I wouldn't say that both sides are not listening, but rather at this stage, none of them will agree to any sort of compromise, nor is this likely to happen.

Thaksin or whatever he calls himself now, is trying every way possible to gain back power and doesn't give a toss who gets caught up in the flack and this present government that stands for the minority who have the majority of power in Thailand, want to hold on to their status and greatly fear Thaksin and his red shirts who more represent the poorer majority, therefore giving the working classes more say and clout over the infrastructure of Thailand, less power of course to the so called elite.

Both sides now realise that the only chance Thaksin has of gaining back his ministerial throne will be by civil war and this is the reason why the red shirts are egging on the army to come out with all guns blazing and the military continues to back off and retreat.

Scary stuff, which means unless both sides agree to some kind of compromise, civil war maybe inevitable.

"this present government that stands for the minority who have the majority of power in Thailand, want to hold on to their status and greatly fear Thaksin and his red shirts who more represent the poorer majority"

I would think that the red shirts are very much in the minority, and the government is actually representing the majority here in Thailand.

I think there is a big diffrent between wanting reforms for the poor and rural people and support the red movement to get thaksin back into power. Reforms will have support all over the country, even by the democrats. Bringing back thaksin will not.

But the reds will always try to keep there real agenda hidden.

[johndpoole]

Make a deal and get Thailand back on track. That is what is good for the thai people. For us Farang, lets hope they keep airing this crap and the protests continue to weaken the bhat.

Baht has been strengthening and expected to reach 31.5 baht per us dollar by end year. Overseas inflow of funds to Thailand stock market for the last 20 trading days has been predominantly net buyers in the market causing almost 10% rise in the index. To a big surprise to most Thais, the disturbance of the red=shirts has not caused any concern to the overseas investors. It is the locals who have been selling most.

I also wonder why the foreign investor have so much confidence in the Thai market?

OMG, I just looked it up. I thought I heard the other day the bhat was finally starting to weaken but didn't check. Interesting is that is has pretty much been gaining strength ever since March (right before big protests) of last year when it hit about 35.7 to $1

And in the last month it has gained almost a full baht.

UGH!

Edit: One thing I have noticed is you really have to dig for the any current Thai news on CNN.COM and it isn't even under the the Asia World news on FoxNews.com --- and the articles I have read in the past seem to only talk of peaceful protests with no mention of bombs or the PM holding up in an Army compound.

Edited March 28, 2010 by johndpoole

[LuckyFive8888]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

I am not sure if this is propaganda or not but a number of Thais have told me they know Thaksin wanted to dissolved the monarchy and create a situation were he could basically be ruler for life. I am sure the constitutional version would have been worded differently but in their heart of hearts they believe this is what he wanted. Now how it got into their hearts, I am not sure.

there are many things that we cannot discuss here that are being talked about by thai people, who are the real subject matter of all of this, they know the real Thaksin, his agenda, strategy, tactics, etc. majority of the thais love the "man who cannot be named here in the forum" and they despise Thaksin's because of reasons that only thai people know. i have been listening to my in-laws, wife, friends, and i have learned from them many things that i cannot read on forums like this. i haven't got any guts to discuss these matters to anyone nor participate in their discussions. thai people they have all the rights to talk about these things but not us foreigners.

[rametindallas]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Free Elections,Democracy....................and other things that we cant discuss....

Free to buy votes

[Rinrada]

Bit like our Jackasses ..err respected Government Ministers here in UK....£5,000 mini cab drivers...

At least the Thais have got an excuse.....its NEW.

[beano2274]

In my opinion Abhisits hand was forced, but the Reds and the Government had best be careful, as there is another group involved who can change everything - The Military. Abhisit knows this, this is why he agreed to meet them, he knows that if this is not resolved soon, then the third party will move in.

[OzMick]

IMO the reds, their leaders, and some TV contributors have a very simplistic view of democracy. They have got to "1 person, 1 vote" and "an elected government" and failed to read fine print.

Democracy depends on a separated set of powers; the legislature, the judiciary, enforcement (police and military) and in the US model, the executive. For democracy to work, it is essential that they remain free and independent, and to act as a set of checks and balances on the power and actions of the others. When one branch is able to suborn one or more of the others, the result is usually a dictatorship, and this is exactly where Thailand was headed under Thaksin.

Thaksin was actively suborning the judiciary, and attempting to promote relatively junior cronies to head the military and police, and at the same time passing legislation to enrich himself in both power and money. The military took the necessary action, and did it well; swift, bloodless and returning to civilian rule in a reasonable time frame.

In the talks, the reds have blamed most of their problems on the judiciary disbanding a political party for illegal election actions. Well, that is what they are there for, and good on them! That's how democracy works, and if that's what the reds want, they got it. They say that they want constitutional changes, and my guess is dis-empowering the Electoral Court so that Thaksin can use his wealth to buy votes, and that dog ain't going to hunt.

I will shout it for the hard of hearing. THIS IS HOW DEMOCRACY IS SUPPOSED TO WORK.

[bacchanal]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

Free Elections,Democracy....................and other things that we cant discuss....

Amnesty for Thaksin's crimes is one of the changes they want and that's freely discussable.

[PIBkk]

What are the constitutional changes the reds want. I understand they want to remove party dissolution as a punishment for vote buying/fraud organized by the party leadership.

What are the other changes they want?

I am not sure if this is propaganda or not but a number of Thais have told me they know Thaksin wanted to dissolved the monarchy and create a situation were he could basically be ruler for life. I am sure the constitutional version would have been worded differently but in their heart of hearts they believe this is what he wanted. Now how it got into their hearts, I am not sure.

there are many things that we cannot discuss here that are being talked about by thai people, who are the real subject matter of all of this, they know the real Thaksin, his agenda, strategy, tactics, etc. majority of the thais love the "man who cannot be named here in the forum" and they despise Thaksin's because of reasons that only thai people know. i have been listening to my in-laws, wife, friends, and i have learned from them many things that i cannot read on forums like this. i haven't got any guts to discuss these matters to anyone nor participate in their discussions. thai people they have all the rights to talk about these things but not us foreigners.

As a Thai, it doesn't matter to me if you want to discuss the issue. You're part of our community and whatever happens to us will affect you. So, you must play your part to the extent, however limited.

[invex]

@ OzMick,

Yes, right for 200% but

HOW TO EXPLAIN THAT TO THE deaf, blind robot REDS???????????????

[brahmburgers]

Overall, it's a good thing the two sides are sitting down at a table and talking. It's a clear indicator of the power of civil discussions and debate - something that is not common within Thai politics. Hopefully, it will lead to televised debates being part of Thai political campaigns.

Abhisit is too nice in my view. He needs to keep in mind the Red's bargaining position - which is weak. The Reds have been showing up in Bangkok, granted. But by their own admission, they're being paid to attend. The most numbers they've shown on any one day is around 100,000, that's about one out of 660,000 Thais, and it's worth repeating: A significant % of those people were paid to attend.

The wind is running out of their sails. Why should the current gov't get spooked by a flagging protest?

According to one source on Twitter the reds are firing up the rhetoric again, stating that negotiations are over and tomorrow they're simply going along to see what Abhisit's decision is. I think Abhisit's popularity has just skyrocketed again however.

When the Red leaders realize they're not going to get dissolution or forgiveness of Thaksin's sins, they're going to threaten all sorts of fire and brimstone. We all have to remember that They have a history of 90% bluff, 10% delivery by paid protesters.

So again, Mr. Abhisit, hang tough. The red tide is dissipating. You're in the power seat. Don't forget that.