Abhisit Govt Needs To Be Extremely Careful

[webfact]

Abhisit govt needs to be extremely careful

BANGKOK: -- The red shirts have crossed the line, that is clear. But the government's decision to use special powers to end the political impasse that has culminated in tens of thousands of protesters encamping in Bangkok's main tourist and business hub can take everything closer to the brink.

Confrontation can never solve this kind of problem. That's why we have all along been supporting the peace process, no matter how hard it is. When provocation is met with aggression, it's not that difficult to predict the result. Over the past two days, the government has been badly provoked, as any neutral eye can see, but the question remains: "Does it really have to come down to the state of emergency?"

It takes two for violence to erupt. The seizure of the Rajprasong Intersection on Saturday, which forced a prolonged closure of businesses that is causing a domino effect, the defiance against orders banning rallying on 11 key Bangkok roads on Tuesday, and yesterday's breaching of the Parliament compound were provocative. In addition, growing frustration among a large section of Bangkokians seemed to give the government extra motivation to get tougher and be seen as trying to do something about it.

But the besieged government, attacked on the left as being blood thirsty and dictatorial and criticised on the right for being too lenient, needs to be extremely careful. Special powers are always a double-edged sword. Worse still, that sword will be wielded by people grappling with an unprecedented situation during the most sensitive time in modern Thai political history.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said the government had tried its best to end the crisis peacefully, and he did not look the slightest bit happy about the state of emergency declaration. But he must make sure that ending it peacefully remains his utmost priority despite any announcement the government might have made. It's difficult, with all the elements and sentiments at play at the moment, but peace is the absolute thing his premiership requires.

-- The Nation 2010-04-08

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[shawndoc]

I don't envy Abhisit. If he caves, it sets the precedent for more protests after the next election (Red if Democrats win, Yellow if PTP wins).

He's tried to be nice, he's tried to negotiate, he's showed an awful lot of restraint. But what has that gotten him? Those against the reds are angry that he's too soft, and the reds no longer fear the government as shown by the fact that at least one red leader is openly refusing to turn himself in despite warrants for his arrest and with the storming of Parliament yesterday and the continual refusal of the reds to enter talks.

Its going to be hard to disperse the crowds without injury and damage to property due to the large number of people and the location, and there's too many who will use any dispersal operation as an excuse to turn up the violence.

[Calib]

"The red shirts have crossed the line, that is clear"

Have they? The Govt. sitting on its' arrogant and unreasoble nine-month pedestal, and the Red Shirts have crossed the line....I dont think so!

"Confrontation can never solve this kind of problem"

That is correct. This genie is out of the bottle. No amount of Amataya wielding of its' power that is institution based, and not people based, will solve this problem. The days of Amataya being able to exert its' will irrespective of an electoral reality are over. There is a better way to protect their interests than trying to bulldoze the elctoral majority. They should cut their losses while they can.

".....the government has been badly provoked, as any neutral eye can see"

The arrogant adherence to a ridiculous nine-month house dissolution timeline is the provocation. Any neutral eye can see that.

"....growing frustration among a large section of Bangkokians seemed to give the government extra motivation to get tougher"

At least there is some recognition here about the limited so-called frustration by Bangkokians. The frustration by both the minority Amataya and majority Democracy advocates is definitely an issue. Using coercion to satisfy the minority is a losing gambit.

"....the government had tried its best to end the crisis peacefully"

'O yeah.......arrogant and inflexible adherence to a self-serving nine-month timeline is '..trying its' best"

"...peace is the absolute thing his premiership requires"

This is correct. But he is hamstrung by others, who prevent him from doing what is necessary to acquire this peace.

Edited April 8, 2010 by Calib

[george]

Vote in our Poll:

QUESTION: What do you want PM Abhisit Vejjajiva to do now that red shirts protesters step up their protests?

Vote here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pm-Abhisit-Now-t354207.html

[Jerrytheyoung]

Vote in our Poll:

QUESTION: What do you want PM Abhisit Vejjajiva to do now that red shirts protesters step up their protests?

Vote here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pm-Abhisit-Now-t354207.html

Sorry, but I cannot answer to your Poll, because there is not the answer I would like to choose. IMHO, the situation is now such, that Abhisit has failed to defuse the situation (it was his first priority Economy is a second one, because the social environment is the guarantee of the long term). Next week, four Ex PMs, experienced and wise leaders, will discuss the solution for getting out of this Crisis.

Abhisit has no more credibility in the current situation, he cannot solve the situation. His coalition shows some cracks (criticisms from Banharm), some not verified informations are adding divergence with the Military support.

Abhisit should announce he steps down in the interest of the Country because he can only bring more controversies now....and it is also his own interest to stay away from actions for coming back in few months ( Elections), regenerated and with a rich experience.

It is the perfect timing for him to step down ...before others take the decision for him

Edited April 8, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[horndevil]

".....the government has been badly provoked, as any neutral eye can see"

The arrogant adherence to a ridiculous nine-month house dissolution timeline is the provocation. Any neutral eye can see that.

Ohh yes and the REDS with their blind insitance for elections to be held in 15 days is not ?

[BigC]

although i think thinks were much more organized under taksin. i do like this PM but i blame the yellow band for starting all this. they got what they wanted by doing simlar portestes. now the red know that if they want to get what they want they have to do the same.

if all the yellow were arrested and put in jail and people expeted the priminster after he was voted back in after another election then the reds would not be doing this style of protest.

reds and yellow are both as bad as each other. i prefered the country under taksin but if the present PM steps doen this this style of protest will never end. it has to stop somewhere. that is by no negotications.

[animatic]

Ultimately it makes no difference WHO started this chain of mob events.

Rule by mob will NEVER cease if a line isn't drawn now.

If this mob forces it's will, then next year another will do the same in inverse.

And this will end in larger bloodshed then or at some later date.

Either the rules of legitimate protest are held to fast, and not breached further,

or this will be a never ending cycle of poor losers bringing the country to it's knees.

Edited April 8, 2010 by animatic

[geriatrickid]

Rule by mob will NEVER cease if a line isn't drawn now.

If this mob forces it's will, then next year another will do the same in inverse.

And this will end in bloodshed then or at some later date.

Either the rules of legitimate protest are held to fast and not breached further,

or this will be a never ending cycle of poor losers bringing the country to it's knees.

Wow. Those are harsh words for the military.

I'm sure Generals Prawit, Prem and Anupong are doing their best to help PM Abhisit.

[animatic]

Rule by mob will NEVER cease if a line isn't drawn now.

If this mob forces it's will, then next year another will do the same in inverse.

And this will end in bloodshed then or at some later date.

Either the rules of legitimate protest are held to fast and not breached further,

or this will be a never ending cycle of poor losers bringing the country to it's knees.

Wow. Those are harsh words for the military.

I'm sure Generals Prawit, Prem and Anupong are doing their best to help PM Abhisit.

non-sequiter

[pedro01]

There are more than 2 sides here.

Whilst there is a stand off between the reds and government, it is only a matter of time before enough people get upset at this that a third group emerges with an eye on resolving the impasse.

[Sunderland]

.

".

The arrogant adherence to a ridiculous nine-month house dissolution timeline is the provocation. Any neutral eye can see that. [/ Quote].

Ohh yes and the REDS with their blind insitance for elections to be held in 15 days [/ b].is not?

[/ Quote].

Not supporting the reds, but please get the facts right. It was 15 days to dissolve Parliament. It would take longer than 15 days to organize an election.

[Sunderland]

There are more than 2 sides here.

Whilst there is a stand off between the reds and government, it is only a matter of time before enough people get upset at this that a third group emerges with an eye on resolving the impasse.

What colour shirts are coming next???

Green with purple polka dots would be interesting.

[moresomekl]

Nobody is in a hurry, little bit later after songkran we will get a pro democracy surprise.

On April 20 the election commission will announce the recommendation for a the Democrats dissolution. The supreme court will follow the EC findings. no 'double standards'.

It will be the outcome will be a government of national unity, but not immediately election. people are to much in anger, not a climate for election.

The government will start a reform process that moves the country forward.

The current parliamentarian system failed more than once. Like the mob on the street the MPs will fight each other in parliament, instead of working together for the good of all people.

The Dissolution of the Democrats will give the way for a even better future. The beginning of New Politics.

The people will select the honest and the righteous amongst them. Carefully selected Mp we can trust. Carefully selected diligent ministers who can shoulder the responsibility. Carefully selected wise leader with no other intention than to serve the King and the country and do good for all people.

A government the people respect - that is democracy.

Thai strength through unity!

Though am not thai myself , i truly hope that your description is what will happen in the near future .

Everyone likes a good fairy tale once in awhile.

How many scary tales your are telling per hour?

Thailand will move forward and we will see good reforms this year, so that the people can return to normality.

But you will feel lonelier than ever before.

Ultimately it makes no difference WHO started this chain of mob events.

Rule by mob will NEVER cease if a line isn't drawn now.

If this mob forces it's will, then next year another will do the same in inverse.

And this will end in larger bloodshed then or at some later date.

Either the rules of legitimate protest are held to fast, and not breached further,

or this will be a never ending cycle of poor losers bringing the country to it's knees.

When a governement comes to power through undemocratic ways , military coup and judicial

coup there is a price to pay .

They should have thought about that before , now its too late .

[Jingthing]

I had to laugh at the title of this thread. Telling Abhisit to be careful is like telling George W Bush to be stupid. Abhisit has been careful during this crisis in spades, possibly fatally so career-wise.

[Sunderland]

No dissolution.

Democrats dissolved.

Power vaccum or by-elections all over the country.

More protests, more dancing and karaoke.

Sweaty shirts out in protest against the smelly shirts.

Welcome to amazing Thailand ...

[anotherpeter]

When a governement comes to power through undemocratic ways , military coup and judicial

coup there is a price to pay .

They should have thought about that before , now its too late .

The PPP came to power through their undemocratic vote buying. They paid their price.

[laurentbkk]

Well ,it seems we are in a dead end . I would suggest to the Prime Minister to call for new election ASAP. The kingdom already suffered more than enough. One day the Yellow ,now the Red ...What next ?

At least with some election it will be clear what Thai people really want . But once again its only my opinion , been living here for so long and seen so many political issues.

[landofthefree]

There are more than 2 sides here.

Whilst there is a stand off between the reds and government, it is only a matter of time before enough people get upset at this that a third group emerges with an eye on resolving the impasse.

What colour shirts are coming next???

Green with purple polka dots would be interesting.

Or black and white stripes as worn by the Mags and............. as I saw today Abhisit! You can't possibly support him now!

[moresomekl]

When a governement comes to power through undemocratic ways , military coup and judicial

coup there is a price to pay .

They should have thought about that before , now its too late .

The PPP came to power through their undemocratic vote buying. They paid their price.

Correction : some in the PPP came to power through vote buying as the democrats before them . No reason to ban

the entire party . Unless you are biased ... or dont understand anything about democracy

Its the former in your case of course .

Conclusion : the Abhisit regime is undemocraticly in power .

[Mosha]

There are more than 2 sides here.

Whilst there is a stand off between the reds and government, it is only a matter of time before enough people get upset at this that a third group emerges with an eye on resolving the impasse.

What colour shirts are coming next???

Green with purple polka dots would be interesting.

Well part of their clothing is greenish. They also have a lot of guns.

[anotherpeter]

When a governement comes to power through undemocratic ways , military coup and judicial

coup there is a price to pay .

They should have thought about that before , now its too late .

The PPP came to power through their undemocratic vote buying. They paid their price.

Correction : some in the PPP came to power through vote buying as the democrats before them . No reason to ban

the entire party . Unless you are biased ... or dont understand anything about democracy

Its the former in your case of course .

Conclusion : the Abhisit regime is undemocraticly in power .

Do we have to go through this all again????

The entire party did not get banned!!!! A couple of MPs got banned, particularly the executive. The law says that if the executive are involved in electoral fraud then the party gets disbanded. All the other MPs moved to the PTP. They still could have formed a coalition government.

Do you want the courts to ignore the law?

THe only reason the Democrats are in power, is because the smaller parties changed side - which is their right.

Unless you are stupid, or haven't read this reasoning when it has been explained to you 50 times before.

The Democrats are in power because of the democratic processes of the Thailand parliamentary system.

Edit: some Democrat MPs were banned for vote buying, but because the executive were not involved the Democrat party was not disbanded.

Edited April 8, 2010 by anotherpeter

[rogerdee123]

....... "that sword will be wielded by people grappling with an unprecedented situation during the most sensitive time in modern Thai political history."

This is really the heart of the matter.

Excellent article!

[geriatrickid]

I had to laugh at the title of this thread. Telling Abhisit to be careful is like telling George W Bush to be stupid. Abhisit has been careful during this crisis in spades, possibly fatally so career-wise.

careful? More like walking the tight rope. He's got a fellow cabinet member with a political knife jabbing his back, and a military that seems to have lost confidence in him to be a good lackey. Under the circumstances, what can he do?

I can't wait to read his memoirs after the coup.

[Jerrytheyoung]

I had to laugh at the title of this thread. Telling Abhisit to be careful is like telling George W Bush to be stupid. Abhisit has been careful during this crisis in spades, possibly fatally so career-wise.

careful? More like walking the tight rope. He's got a fellow cabinet member with a political knife jabbing his back, and a military that seems to have lost confidence in him to be a good lackey. Under the circumstances, what can he do?

I can't wait to read his memoirs after the coup.

The State of Emergency and the shut down of Red TV discard his credibilty.

[Jingthing]

To who? The red shirts? Who cares?

[way2muchcoffee]

The State of Emergency and the shut down of Red TV discard his credibilty.

Do you support the playing of a doctored tape with Abhisit's voice calling for violence to protesters being played on stage and broadcast nationwide?

Do you support the call for guerrilla warfare to be played onstage and broadcast nationwide?

Do you support the issuance of death threats to be played onstage and broadcast nationwide?

If the redshirts were not lying on stage their signal would not have been cut. It's pretty straightforward. It is the redshirt leaders whose credibility has been damaged because they will use all means to achieve their ends even if it results in the deaths of their followers.

Edited April 8, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[chantorn]

Mark must stand firm with Thai law in his hand.

[indyuk]

"The red shirts have crossed the line, that is clear"

Have they? The Govt. sitting on its' arrogant and unreasoble nine-month pedestal, and the Red Shirts have crossed the line....I dont think so!

"Confrontation can never solve this kind of problem"

That is correct. This genie is out of the bottle. No amount of Amataya wielding of its' power that is institution based, and not people based, will solve this problem. The days of Amataya being able to exert its' will irrespective of an electoral reality are over. There is a better way to protect their interests than trying to bulldoze the elctoral majority. They should cut their losses while they can.

".....the government has been badly provoked, as any neutral eye can see"

The arrogant adherence to a ridiculous nine-month house dissolution timeline is the provocation. Any neutral eye can see that.

"....growing frustration among a large section of Bangkokians seemed to give the government extra motivation to get tougher"

At least there is some recognition here about the limited so-called frustration by Bangkokians. The frustration by both the minority Amataya and majority Democracy advocates is definitely an issue. Using coercion to satisfy the minority is a losing gambit.

"....the government had tried its best to end the crisis peacefully"

'O yeah.......arrogant and inflexible adherence to a self-serving nine-month timeline is '..trying its' best"

"...peace is the absolute thing his premiership requires"

This is correct. But he is hamstrung by others, who prevent him from doing what is necessary to acquire this peace.

Exactly, Premier Abhisit is a well educated being. Yet every time he makes a statement in this matter he winds the Red Shirts up more. I believe his words come from another (a former premier perhaps) Remembering Kitticachkorn's (October 6th 1976) demise I suspect that Premier Abhisit is very afraid right now. The state of emergency is in place. What now if the Red Shirt annex the E-san?

[Jerrytheyoung]

The State of Emergency and the shut down of Red TV discard his credibilty.

Do you support the playing of a doctored tape with Abhisit's voice calling for violence to protesters being played on stage and broadcast nationwide?

Do you support the call for guerrilla warfare to be played onstage and broadcast nationwide?

Do you support the issuance of death threats to be played onstage and broadcast nationwide?

If the redshirts were not lying on stage their signal would not have been cut. It's pretty straightforward. It is the redshirt leaders whose credibility has been damaged because they will use all means to achieve their ends even if it results in the deaths of their followers.

If you read my posts you will see that I try to be positive and try to support a third way: because the conflict will have to end through a discussion involving all parties. Next week four former PMs, all experienced, with different sensitivity but wise men, will meet and I expect as many others, that this Group of ex PM will make a proposal for getting out from this mess.

Already we can detect some trends: Yes, there will be some elections, yes there must be some discussions on the Charter and yes some immediate social measures have to be implemented.

Abhisit balance is not negative: he is smart, look like an honest guy (However he has been obliged to "cover' some guys in his government not so honest).

Some good decisions for the poors are on the way, but not enough, insufficient to cool the situation and obviously too late to be listened to due to situation evolution (too late, insuficient)

As PM, he has not succeeded to control his coalition and get the authority to implement what he want to do: this is something that is suggested by some of his supporters. So.... in summary: In the good direction but Insufficient

IMHO,

If we anticipate what will happen: at the end, one Government will have to organise the transition towards the General Elections. By implementing the State of Emergency, by shutting down the Red TV, Abhisit is loosing ground in the possibility to lead the transition: he has to be replaced because he is too much marked as a leader of a party, from now he cannot pretend to be the head of a Government of Unity....This is the Conclusion which will become more and more obvious.

It is even the interest of Abhisit to step down as soon as possible, being involved to a minimum in the coming events in order to be in the best position during the next election campaign which is unavoidable now in few months.

Edited April 8, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung