Bangkok Showdown: Clashes Seem Inevitable Now

[webfact]

Prepare for a showdown: clashes seem inevitable now

By Thanong Khanthong

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Just as he was about to be dumped by the military and coalition partners, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva staged a comeback. He invoked the emergency decree, equivalent to martial law, to deal with the red shirts. Earlier, the military and coalition partners signalled that he must dissolve Parliament in 48 hours, otherwise they would withdraw support.

Both Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban and General Anupong Paochinda were taken off guard. The PM assigned Suthep as head of the security panel formed to enforce the emergency decree, which authorises the security forces to quash the red shirts decisively. Abhisit promised to restore normalcy to Bangkok as soon as possible. The emergency rule covers Bangkok, Nonthaburi, Samut Prakan, Ayutthaya, Pathum Thani and Nakhon Pathom.

Since March 12, the police and security forces have made little effort to subdue the crowds at the Phan Fah Leela Bridge and the Rajprasong Intersection. The red-shirt leaders have demanded the government dissolve Parliament in 15 days. Talks between both sides have broken down.

The emergency decree is a response to the red shirts' storming of Parliament. Their occupation of the Rajprasong Intersection has already raised the temperature almost to the boiling point. But more than 24 hours after the announcement of the decree, the security forces still had not acted. Anupong and General Prawit Wongsuwan made known their stance: they would not use force to disperse the protestors.

At the same time, the red shirts continue to spread out to different parts of Bangkok in defiance. The state apparatus is in neutral gear. The independent state within the state has rebelled.

The red shirts are also mobilising supporters in 17 provinces to further challenge the emergency decree. They will gather in front of provincial halls. Many also plan to go to Bangkok to boost the rally.

Abhisit was scheduled to travel to Hanoi yesterday at noon to participate in the Asean Summit and return to Bangkok today, during which time he expected Suthep, Anupong and security personnel to quash the red shirts. But since Suthep and Anupong did not move, the PM cancelled his trip and assigned Deputy PM Trairong Suwankhiri to go on his behalf. He would stay in Bangkok to take over command.

There are no signs the protestors will budge. On the contrary, they have raised their level of aggressiveness and resistance by storming the Parliament premise on Wednesday to disrupt the Cabinet meeting. They will not leave Bangkok until they achieve victory.

After the storming into Parliament, some analysts viewed that Arisman Phongruengrong and his group were shooting themselves in the feet. But the red shirts are using exactly the same strategy employed by the yellow shirts - doing everything to weaken the government and create the image that the prime minister is no longer in charge.

The red shirts are broadly divided into three groups, with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as a symbolic head. The hardcore group is led by the likes of Sae Daeng, Maj-General Khattiya Sawasdiphol and General Pallop Pinmanee. The academic group is represented by Dr weng Tojirakarn. Within this group, there are Maoists, socialists and those who want to uproot the Thai regime. The hit-and-run group is represented by people like Arisman. The three hard-headed buddies - Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Phomphan and Natthawut Saikua - are the face of the rally.

Arisman, who stormed the Asean Summit in Pattaya last March, is replaying his role. On Tuesday, his group was quite effective in provoking violence without creating violence. Security personnel yielded to red-shirt pressure by allowing them to break into Parliament. Some of the red shirts even took weapons from the security personnel by force. The security personnel adopted a neutral mode.

The red shirts accomplished what they wanted. The parliamentarians and staff had to escape over the fence of the rear exit. Suthep and other ministers had climbed ladders before being taken away via helicopter. The script could not have been written better. The TV footage spoke a thousand words. It showed the whole world that Abhisit had lost control of the country. This was reminiscent of the yellow-shirt rallies. The red shirts then reprimanded Arisman for overstepping the boundary of a decent rally. But it was an orchestrated scheme.

We can expect to see a military reshuffle if they defy orders to end the rally and remove protestors. A new team would be brought in to do the necessary job. Abhisit still hopes that by Songkran the situation will have cooled down. But before that, the red shirts are expected to intensify their efforts over the weekend.

Physical clashes between security forces and demonstrators now look inevitable.

-- The Nation 2010-04-09

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[JusMe]

So, guess this shows just who's really in charge of the military. No civilian control here.

"Anupong and General Prawit Wongsuwan made known their stance: they would not use force to disperse the protestors."

Maybe Abhisist should just step aside and tell the Generals, "Okay, you guys run it. You did such a good job last time!"

Might even push for greater civilian control of the country.

[givenall]

So, guess this shows just who's really in charge of the military. No civilian control here.

"Anupong and General Prawit Wongsuwan made known their stance: they would not use force to disperse the protestors."

Maybe Abhisist should just step aside and tell the Generals, "Okay, you guys run it. You did such a good job last time!"

Might even push for greater civilian control of the country.

Ladies and gentleman let’s get ready to rumble

[Redsunset]

Thanong, your lead article is fantastic - terrific insight and story. Keep writing!!!

[ManilaLover]

BANGKOK: -- Just as he was about to be dumped by the military and coalition partners, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva staged a comeback. He invoked the emergency decree, equivalent to martial law, to deal with the red shirts. Earlier, the military and coalition partners signalled that he must dissolve Parliament in 48 hours, otherwise they would withdraw support.

Getting confused now

Within this group, there are Maoists, socialists

<deleted> does China has a role in all this ???

Abhisit still hopes that by Songkran the situation will have cooled down.

Guess it's a matter of 'action' not one of 'hope' ??? Edited April 9, 2010 by ManilaLover

[anotherpeter]

Clashes have been "inevitable" for about 4 weeks now.

Abhisit and the army don't want clashes, otherwise they would have had them already.

[jdinasia]

Thanong, your lead article is fantastic - terrific insight and story. Keep writing!!!

Ummmm did you not notice that this is the same guy that announced what he said in his first paragraph as a fact less than 48 hours ago as fact?

While I agree with his last sentence, the author is using this to back up the faulty knowledge he claimed to have recently. (Listening too closely to the reds perhaps? since his piece came out about the time Arisman was breaking into Parliament and the red leaders were spreading rumors to get Arisman out of parliament)

[mca]

Within this group, there are Maoists, socialists

<deleted> does China has a role in all this ???

I think he means they're pissed to the gills on 40 degree and M-150.

[Redsunset]

Thanong, your lead article is fantastic - terrific insight and story. Keep writing!!!

Ummmm did you not notice that this is the same guy that announced what he said in his first paragraph as a fact less than 48 hours ago as fact?

While I agree with his last sentence, the author is using this to back up the faulty knowledge he claimed to have recently. (Listening too closely to the reds perhaps? since his piece came out about the time Arisman was breaking into Parliament and the red leaders were spreading rumors to get Arisman out of parliament)

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying here... both your first and second paragraphs do not make sense without more context... please explainl

[quiksilva]

Yesterday Thanong reported a rumour that the military and his coalition partners had threatened to jump ship unless the PM called for house dissolution in 48hrs, then later the very same day Banharn gave a press release reaffirming his support of Abhisit squashing that rumour.

What we dont know is how much truth there was to that rumour. It is feasible that this was true and that the subsequent press release was issued after a back room deal whereby the PM declared that a SOE would be issued inj order to retain the support of the partners and the military.

However, Banharn has gone on record several times now stating that he does not believe that a dissolution under the tight timeframe will solve any problems, so I think its unlikely that he can turn back now that he has said that... although on the other hand he is a politician....

Likewise I cant see how an SOE would satisfy the "we will not use force" military.

Personally I believe that the rumour was just that, a rumour. There are so many floating around these days in the so called fog of war.

Edited April 9, 2010 by quiksilva

[rreddin]

So, guess this shows just who's really in charge of the military. No civilian control here.

"Anupong and General Prawit Wongsuwan made known their stance: they would not use force to disperse the protestors."

Maybe Abhisist should just step aside and tell the Generals, "Okay, you guys run it. You did such a good job last time!"

Might even push for greater civilian control of the country.

Having taken a hardline stance, which for the time being may have saved his bacon, what does Khun Abhisit do if the military and police continue to be innefective at dispersing the demonstrators? I doubt that he now has the authority to impose a reshuffle on the military top brass; even if he has, I dout that the new commanders will be more willing to use force.

Khun Ahbisit's seemes to be pre-occupied with the economy. That IMHO is an error. The markets have factored the turmoil into the price of Thai stocks and the exchange rate. Instead of doing what he did, he should have seized the political initiative by announcing a road map that will lead to elections within , say, six months; followed up by summoning all of the stakeholders to a meeting to kick start the process. An opportunity has been missed.

Khun Abhisit does not have many options left if this stand off is to be resolved peacefully, as we all hope.

[anotherpeter]

Having taken a hardline stance, which for the time being may have saved his bacon, what does Khun Abhisit do if the military and police continue to be innefective at dispersing the demonstrators? I doubt that he now has the authority to impose a reshuffle on the military top brass; even if he has, I dout that the new commanders will be more willing to use force.

Khun Ahbisit's seemes to be pre-occupied with the economy. That IMHO is an error. The markets have factored the turmoil into the price of Thai stocks and the exchange rate. Instead of doing what he did, he should have seized the political initiative by announcing a road map that will lead to elections within , say, six months; followed up by summoning all of the stakeholders to a meeting to kick start the process. An opportunity has been missed.

Khun Abhisit does not have many options left if this stand off is to be resolved peacefully, as we all hope.

Do you know that the military and police have been *asked* to disperse the demonstrators?

It is not the Thai way to use force, Thai against Thai, so maybe that is the reason that force is not being used.

If Abhisit was pre-occupied with the economy, don't you think he would have headed off to the ASEAN summit in Vietnam? Don't you think he would have stopped the protests a month ago when they started hurting the economy?

[jdinasia]

Thanong, your lead article is fantastic - terrific insight and story. Keep writing!!!

Ummmm did you not notice that this is the same guy that announced what he said in his first paragraph as a fact less than 48 hours ago as fact?

While I agree with his last sentence, the author is using this to back up the faulty knowledge he claimed to have recently. (Listening too closely to the reds perhaps? since his piece came out about the time Arisman was breaking into Parliament and the red leaders were spreading rumors to get Arisman out of parliament)

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying here... both your first and second paragraphs do not make sense without more context... please explainl

Read what Thanong wrote right at about the time that Arisman was invading Parliament. He alludes to it in his first sentence. It turned out to be 100% wrong but he is standing by it in this article.

[losworld]

Okay how about this... Ab tells the redshirts if they do not go home peacefully there will be no debt moratorium for the farmers in the northeast. That should put some pressure on the redshirts.

[mca]

It is not the Thai way to use force, Thai against Thai, so maybe that is the reason that force is not being used.

Thai history might disagree with you there peter.

[thaihome]

Thanong has been wrong far more then right over the past 4 weeks then. Remember this is the guy that said the coalition partners would vote no confidence after the third day of the demonstrations. Instead, the house met, got a quorum even without the PTP MP’s, and passed several pieces of legislation.

TH

[anotherpeter]

It is not the Thai way to use force, Thai against Thai, so maybe that is the reason that force is not being used.

Thai history might disagree with you there peter.

Yes, true ... but I just don't see the benefit to Abhisit or the army for them to come out in force against the red shirts, particularly since they have been very peaceful.

The government/army came out with a show of force initially, most likely because of the violent rhetoric of the red leaders. But they haven't been confronting. Abhisit has always talked peaceful, and the army are showing peaceful, so I don't think those two are at loggerheads.

There has only been rumour of splits between the Democrats and the army, and the coalition members, but they all keep coming out saying they support each other.

Ofcourse that may change, but the constant speculation that Abhisit is not in control is not showing by what's happening on the streets. Everything he says is what is happening. Except the arrests, ofcourse ... but Abhisit doesn't want to confront the protestors, and the red leaders will hide behind the women and children that are at the protests.

[jdinasia]

Thanong has been wrong far more then right over the past 4 weeks then. Remember this is the guy that said the coalition partners would vote no confidence after the third day of the demonstrations. Instead, the house met, got a quorum even without the PTP MP's, and passed several pieces of legislation.

TH

Yeppers --- at this point he may need to start looking for a new career. Reporting and opinion/predicting do not seem to be his strong points. Perhaps he could consider fiction writing, he can string together sentences better than most and he can hold a plot point in his mind. Not too bad!

[geriatrickid]

Interesting that a 48 hours timeline to dissolve parliament is acceptble, yet the 15 day red shirt request is not?

Where are the red shirt bashers to comment on the 48 hour ultimatum. Why are they notcalling the perps evil thugs?

is it because that would mean acknowledging that the Reds 15 days is reasonable compared to the 48 hrs?

Hahah, stew in your own tears you hypocrites.

[bubba]

Twitter now returns a more or less blank page for me now, unless I go through VPN. Appears to have been blocked....is anyone else seeing this now?

[anotherpeter]

Interesting that a 48 hours timeline to dissolve parliament is acceptble, yet the 15 day red shirt request is not?

Where are the red shirt bashers to comment on the 48 hour ultimatum. Why are they notcalling the perps evil thugs?

is it because that would mean acknowledging that the Reds 15 days is reasonable compared to the 48 hrs?

Hahah, stew in your own tears you hypocrites.

A rumour from a reporter about someone supposedly giving a 48 hour deadline is not worth commenting on.

Especially when the people supposedly giving this 48 hour deadline come out soon after and pledge full support in the government.

Edit: and there have been plenty of comments about the quality of the article and the reporter.

Edited April 9, 2010 by anotherpeter

[animatic]

Of course Maoists are not exclusively from China, even if Mao was from China.

Weng is pretty Maoist and Jakropob too. At least the seems to indicat strong Maoist leanings,

and there is the old coot dressed in Mao suit and he is certainly part of this floor show.

Shining Path, and FARC in Columbia are extreme Maoists as well as some

groups north West of Thailand whom we can't talk about here.

[elcent]

Twitter now returns a more or less blank page for me now, unless I go through VPN. Appears to have been blocked....is anyone else seeing this now?

It's behaving strange since days now.

Anyway, if the gov loses momentum to stop the red madness the reds will regroup in high numbers again and it could well go into Songkran holidays or even longer.

[chadillac0]

come on!!!!

Can't believe this thread continues!!!

[anotherpeter]

Twitter now returns a more or less blank page for me now, unless I go through VPN. Appears to have been blocked....is anyone else seeing this now?

It's behaving strange since days now.

Anyway, if the gov loses momentum to stop the red madness the reds will regroup in high numbers again and it could well go into Songkran holidays or even longer.

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

[jdinasia]

Interesting that a 48 hours timeline to dissolve parliament is acceptble, yet the 15 day red shirt request is not?

Where are the red shirt bashers to comment on the 48 hour ultimatum. Why are they notcalling the perps evil thugs?

is it because that would mean acknowledging that the Reds 15 days is reasonable compared to the 48 hrs?

Hahah, stew in your own tears you hypocrites.

hmmm because there was no 48 hour ultimatum? It was floated to get Arisman back in line as he was hurting the reds by his stunt of breaking into parliament?

[geriatrickid]

Interesting that a 48 hours timeline to dissolve parliament is acceptble, yet the 15 day red shirt request is not?

Where are the red shirt bashers to comment on the 48 hour ultimatum. Why are they notcalling the perps evil thugs?

is it because that would mean acknowledging that the Reds 15 days is reasonable compared to the 48 hrs?

Hahah, stew in your own tears you hypocrites.

hmmm because there was no 48 hour ultimatum? It was floated to get Arisman back in line as he was hurting the reds by his stunt of breaking into parliament?

Oh, so then the report from the nation is wrong? Is it wrong because you disagree or is it wrong for another reason?

Prepare for a showdown: clashes seem inevitable now

By Thanong Khanthong The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Just as he was about to be dumped by the military and coalition partners, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva staged a comeback. He invoked the emergency decree, equivalent to martial law, to deal with the red shirts. Earlier, the military and coalition partners signalled that he must dissolve Parliament in 48 hours, otherwise they would withdraw support.

[bendejo]

While I am not particularly pro-Abhisit I am definitely anti-Taksin. But it's time for Abhisit to do something.

I understand his reluctance to use force, but this has gotten out of hand.

[BKjohn]

While I am not particularly pro-Abhisit I am definitely anti-Taksin. But it's time for Abhisit to do something.

I understand his reluctance to use force, but this has gotten out of hand.

It looks real bad unles the government acts now!!

Betcha some Chinese business man is printing Thaksin posters right now - with the sentence in Thai "president for life"

[jdinasia]

Interesting that a 48 hours timeline to dissolve parliament is acceptble, yet the 15 day red shirt request is not?

Where are the red shirt bashers to comment on the 48 hour ultimatum. Why are they notcalling the perps evil thugs?

is it because that would mean acknowledging that the Reds 15 days is reasonable compared to the 48 hrs?

Hahah, stew in your own tears you hypocrites.

hmmm because there was no 48 hour ultimatum? It was floated to get Arisman back in line as he was hurting the reds by his stunt of breaking into parliament?

Oh, so then the report from the nation is wrong? Is it wrong because you disagree or is it wrong for another reason?

Prepare for a showdown: clashes seem inevitable now

By Thanong Khanthong The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Just as he was about to be dumped by the military and coalition partners, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva staged a comeback. He invoked the emergency decree, equivalent to martial law, to deal with the red shirts. Earlier, the military and coalition partners signalled that he must dissolve Parliament in 48 hours, otherwise they would withdraw support.

Again --- disinformation put out (by the reds) to rein in Arisman. This reporter jumped on it as if it were fact. It wasn't.