Worst Case - The Iceland Vulcano

[tw25rw]

Living in London, I can say that at ground level there is no perceptible evidence of ash at all. Sky is clear, sunsets normal and cars no dirtier.

I think this whole thing will turn out to be a huge false alarm. This is nothing at all like the 1982 BA event that caused a plane to lose all power.

They should be letting planes fly through it, at least via the clearest altitudes and routes, and collect data from them. If they need to vary the etops rules, the so be it. There are loads of potential emergency landing places.

The scientists involved will soon have had their 15 mins of fame and things will be back to normal, but not until millions of people have been inconvenienced and 100s of millions of £s lost by airlines etc.

[BygonKeaw]

Boy, things are really getting messed up. Eartquakes (It seems like one a week), volcanic eruptions, riots in cities all over the world, that big securities firm in NY admitting fraud, Tiger not winning the Masters, etc. What's next? An astroid strike? This eruption seems to be affecting many commercial things. Terrorists?

Edit: Worst case? I'll get back to you on that.

maybe its true then what they say about 21/12/2011..these so called nuts predicted more and more major quakes.eruptions tsunamis leading up to this date....THE BIG ONE

[garyh]

Boy, things are really getting messed up. Eartquakes (It seems like one a week), volcanic eruptions, riots in cities all over the world, that big securities firm in NY admitting fraud, Tiger not winning the Masters, etc. What's next? An astroid strike? This eruption seems to be affecting many commercial things. Terrorists?

Edit: Worst case? I'll get back to you on that.

maybe its true then what they say about 21/12/2011..these so called nuts predicted more and more major quakes.eruptions tsunamis leading up to this date....THE BIG ONE

Stop hogging the weed

[tw25rw]

Boy, things are really getting messed up. Eartquakes (It seems like one a week), volcanic eruptions, riots in cities all over the world, that big securities firm in NY admitting fraud, Tiger not winning the Masters, etc. What's next? An astroid strike? This eruption seems to be affecting many commercial things. Terrorists?

Edit: Worst case? I'll get back to you on that.

maybe its true then what they say about 21/12/2011..these so called nuts predicted more and more major quakes.eruptions tsunamis leading up to this date....THE BIG ONE

Not just that but the red spot on Jupiter is fading. Where will it end?

[gotlost]

Boy, things are really getting messed up. Eartquakes (It seems like one a week), volcanic eruptions, riots in cities all over the world, that big securities firm in NY admitting fraud, Tiger not winning the Masters, etc. What's next? An astroid strike? This eruption seems to be affecting many commercial things. Terrorists?

Edit: Worst case? I'll get back to you on that.

maybe its true then what they say about 21/12/2011..these so called nuts predicted more and more major quakes.eruptions tsunamis leading up to this date....THE BIG ONE

Not just that but the red spot on Jupiter is fading. Where will it end?

Even BG investigations are down by 80% according to some sources. Whats happening we will never be the same.

[dazk]

Living in London, I can say that at ground level there is no perceptible evidence of ash at all. Sky is clear, sunsets normal and cars no dirtier.

I think this whole thing will turn out to be a huge false alarm. This is nothing at all like the 1982 BA event that caused a plane to lose all power.

They should be letting planes fly through it, at least via the clearest altitudes and routes, and collect data from them. If they need to vary the etops rules, the so be it. There are loads of potential emergency landing places.

The scientists involved will soon have had their 15 mins of fame and things will be back to normal, but not until millions of people have been inconvenienced and 100s of millions of £s lost by airlines etc.

Jet planes cannot fly through the ash as the heat of the engines turns the ash into a glass coating causing the engine to fail.

Jets could fly lower to avoid the ash clouds but lower altitude means higher engine temp which means higher fuel consumption to such an extent that a plane cannot carry enough fuel to complete ongoing flight.

[Jim's_a_Thai_Fox]

Yeah, surely urgent flights can just fly lower? Flights supposed to get to northern Europe get re routed to southern Europe and travel over land. People are pretty adaptable - not a huge deal really, this volcanic ash isn't going to block out the sun and ruin world crops and drop us into an ice age.

However, you have to sit back in awe at just how easily "we mighty human beings" can be humbled when Mother Nature decides to flex a minuscule amount of her formidable muscle.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Living in London, I can say that at ground level there is no perceptible evidence of ash at all. Sky is clear, sunsets normal and cars no dirtier.

I think this whole thing will turn out to be a huge false alarm. This is nothing at all like the 1982 BA event that caused a plane to lose all power.

They should be letting planes fly through it, at least via the clearest altitudes and routes, and collect data from them. If they need to vary the etops rules, the so be it. There are loads of potential emergency landing places.

The scientists involved will soon have had their 15 mins of fame and things will be back to normal, but not until millions of people have been inconvenienced and 100s of millions of £s lost by airlines etc.

Jet planes cannot fly through the ash as the heat of the engines turns the ash into a glass coating causing the engine to fail.

Jets could fly lower to avoid the ash clouds but lower altitude means higher engine temp which means higher fuel consumption to such an extent that a plane cannot carry enough fuel to complete ongoing flight.

Right, but only for the limited area where the problem exists; so if this persists then ways will be found to work around it, such as flying lower for part of the way, which (worst case) may mean an additional refueling stop. Though realistically, most flights aren't at the very limit of an aircraft's range limit, so they can accommodate by adding some more fuel. Still, if additional refueling stops are needed then that of course cuts into the overall capacity, but the larger point being that ways WILL be found to work around it.

When regular weather service resumes in Western Europe (low pressure areas drifting in from the Atlantic) the problem will move elsewhere anyway.

Edited April 18, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[WinnieTheKhwai]

it covered most of N. America in over 6" of ash

for real?

Really really. See Wikipedia:

The last full-scale eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, the Lava Creek eruption which happened nearly 640,000 years ago^[17], ejected approximately 240 cubic miles (1,000 km³) of rock and dust into the sky.^[9]

It was an awesome sight.

Edited April 18, 2010 by WinnieTheKhwai

[geriatrickid]

Have a look at the ash dissipation cloud.

Now apply it to an event that would release other types of fall out. This should open people's eyes to the implications of what happens if someone ever uses a nuclear weapon on the east coast USA or in the UK. The fallout will drift right over to continental Europe. On a more likely scenario, the cloud will make its way over to Africa. If the ash keeps on spewing it can have an impact upon African weather systems. As it is, there is a consensus that industrial pollution from Europe has a negative consequence on African weather patterns facilitating extremes including drought. Additional particulate matter added to the industrial pollution cloud will only make matters worse. If this continues, I would anticipate that Africa will get hit hard and that means famine, starvation and the continued destruction of fragile ecosystems.

[mrbojangles]

Living in London, I can say that at ground level there is no perceptible evidence of ash at all. Sky is clear, sunsets normal and cars no dirtier.

It will have to come down somewhere though. Now might be the best time to invest on the stockmarket in a company who manufactures Dust Cloths and Feather Dusters. They're gonna make a killing

They should be letting planes fly through it, at least via the clearest altitudes and routes, and collect data from them.

I believe KLM went up today or yesterday, with Scientists and the CEO on board, to collect data.

Edited April 18, 2010 by mrbojangles

[dazk]

Living in London, I can say that at ground level there is no perceptible evidence of ash at all. Sky is clear, sunsets normal and cars no dirtier.

I think this whole thing will turn out to be a huge false alarm. This is nothing at all like the 1982 BA event that caused a plane to lose all power.

They should be letting planes fly through it, at least via the clearest altitudes and routes, and collect data from them. If they need to vary the etops rules, the so be it. There are loads of potential emergency landing places.

The scientists involved will soon have had their 15 mins of fame and things will be back to normal, but not until millions of people have been inconvenienced and 100s of millions of £s lost by airlines etc.

Jet planes cannot fly through the ash as the heat of the engines turns the ash into a glass coating causing the engine to fail.

Jets could fly lower to avoid the ash clouds but lower altitude means higher engine temp which means higher fuel consumption to such an extent that a plane cannot carry enough fuel to complete ongoing flight.

Right, but only for the limited area where the problem exists; so if this persists then ways will be found to work around it, such as flying lower for part of the way, which (worst case) may mean an additional refueling stop. Though realistically, most flights aren't at the very limit of an aircraft's range limit, so they can accommodate by adding some more fuel. Still, if additional refueling stops are needed then that of course cuts into the overall capacity, but the larger point being that ways WILL be found to work around it.

When regular weather service resumes in Western Europe (low pressure areas drifting in from the Atlantic) the problem will move elsewhere anyway.

sure i agree but would be risky to fly out of bkk to london the cloud could go any direction and any altitude difficult to plan

[tw25rw]

Living in London, I can say that at ground level there is no perceptible evidence of ash at all. Sky is clear, sunsets normal and cars no dirtier.

It will have to come down somewhere though. Now might be the best time to invest on the stockmarket in a company who manufactures Dust Cloths and Feather Dusters. They're gonna make a killing

They should be letting planes fly through it, at least via the clearest altitudes and routes, and collect data from them.

I believe KLM went up today or yesterday, with Scientists and the CEO on board, to collect data.

It will have to come down, but it's so fine and dissipated that we'll barely notice if at all. The heavy particulate has already fallen to earth as it moved away from the convection currents around the volcano. In the 1982 event, the plane went right through the thick stuff and was showered with glowing embers. It was at night so the crew didn't see the cloud of (radar absorbing) ash until they were in it.

I also heard a jet flying over me in Lewisham, so I think someone in London is doing tests. Hopefully it will be shown to be a myth that these fine particles ordinarily turn to glass in a jet engine. I did see the report of the Finnish F-18, but don't know the nature of what it flew through or how it's engines compare with an airliner. It wouldn't surprise me if they ran much hotter.

[sarahsbloke]

It's the end of the world! .......... No wait, it isn't.

[Indo-Siam]

I don't know enough about jet aircraft engines to know just what these pictures mean, from a practical standpoint (obviously the aircraft survived to land), but here is an article with photos:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/...f-volcanic.html

[chickenslegs]

I've been reading that several airlines (Air France, Lufthansa, KLM, and others) have been moving dozens of aircraft around Europe and further afield, to get them into the correct locations ready for the ban being lifted (apparently it is ok to fly these aircraft so long as there are no passengers on board).

They have all been thoroughly inspected on arrival and none have experienced any problems.

[mrbojangles]

I also heard a jet flying over me in Lewisham, so I think someone in London is doing tests. Hopefully it will be shown to be a myth that these fine particles ordinarily turn to glass in a jet engine.

It seems you may be right. From the BBC:- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8628323.stm

Europe's airlines and airports question flight bans

Europe's airlines and airports have called for an immediate reassessment of flight restrictions imposed because of volcanic ash from Iceland.

Two bodies that represent most of Europe's airlines and airports say they question the extent of the flight restrictions currently imposed.

Airlines that have carried out test flights say planes showed no obvious damage after flying through the ash.

Millions of travellers have been hit by four days of air travel disruption.

The disruption is said to be greater than the shutdown that followed the 9/11 attacks.

About 20 European countries have closed their airspace and some have extended flight bans into Monday.

The flight bans came amid fears that the ash - a mixture of glass, sand and rock particles - can seriously damage aircraft engines. Airlines are estimated to be losing some £130m ($200m) a day.

The two airline bodies, ACI Europe and AEA, said: "The eruption of the Icelandic volcano is not an unprecedented event and the procedures applied in other parts of the world for volcanic eruptions do not appear to require the kind of restrictions that are presently being imposed in Europe."

One of the airlines that carried out tests over the weekend was Dutch carrier KLM.

Its chief executive Peter Hartman, who was on board, said there was "nothing unusual" about the flight.

"If the technical examination confirms this... we then hope to get permission as soon as possible to partially restart our operations," he added.

Steven Verhagen, vice-president of the Dutch Airline Pilots Association, told the Associated Press news agency: "In our opinion there is absolutely no reason to worry about resuming flights."

Meanwhile, British Airways was conducting its own test flight on Sunday afternoon, with Willie Walsh, a trained pilot, on board. The BBC's business editor, Robert Peston, understands that the airline fears it might not be allowed to fly normal services until Thursday at the earliest.

Germany's two biggest airlines, Lufthansa and Air Berlin, also said they had carried out test flights without apparent damage, as did Air France.

Air Berlin spokeswoman Diana Daedelow told the BBC: "It is astonishing that these findings... have seemingly been ignored in the decision-making process of the aviation safety authorities."

[tw25rw]

Guy I sit next to at work was meant to fly LHR-BKK on Friday with Jet Airways, but obviously didn't.. It's his first trip and I've been warming him up with stories and youtube vids. His rearranged flight tomorrow is already canceled. Poor guy must be climbing the walls.

[IMA_FARANG]

This is not even a big eruption in comparison to others in Iceland.

In June, 1783 the volcano Loki erupted. It is estimated that that eruption caused the death of 1/5th of the then population of Iceland (about 50,000 people then, 10,000 are believed to have died from the eruption, the supheric acid cloud it emited, and the resulting famine as crops failed and food animals died).

The Icelandics have a name for it....Moduhardindin - meaning "the hardship of the fog". The icelandics stopped dancing, and their traditional dances were forgotten...unlike the Faroe Islands or the Shetlands near by.

Volcanos go by their own time scale...they don't oblige humans. A volcano may be "dormant" for a million years, then explode and erupt for more than a month.

Yellowstone National park in the U.S. is of volcanic origin. I't erupted a few million years ago in a major eruption. Ash from that eruption is still found in buried ash beds over a thousand miles away. Now that was big eruption.

This one in Iceland is still relatively minor in comparison.

[sokal]

I heard on the BBC just now that khao san road is filling up with stranded people. Is that true ?

[tw25rw]

I heard on the BBC just now that khao san road is filling up with stranded people. Is that true ?

I can beleive it. I'd have to be pretty desperate to stay there.

[hawthorne]

The worst case--Several nations realize they do not have the technical edge to control the skies so they use the cover of the ashe keeping the skies clear of AWACS and other air protection to launch an all out WWWIII. Let the ashe cloud grow farther east and you enter countries that are kept at bay by other countires that control the skies. Only mass mobilization is by boat. By the time any reinforcements make it to the middle east a country like China, Russia or India could control the worlds largest oil supply. What if Russia and China made a treaty to split the spoils in half?

[smokie36]

Worst case? We've finally run out of oil. The ash is a smokescreen.

Edited April 18, 2010 by smokie36

[Carib]

The worst case--Several nations realize they do not have the technical edge to control the skies so they use the cover of the ashe keeping the skies clear of AWACS and other air protection to launch an all out WWWIII. Let the ashe cloud grow farther east and you enter countries that are kept at bay by other countires that control the skies. Only mass mobilization is by boat. By the time any reinforcements make it to the middle east a country like China, Russia or India could control the worlds largest oil supply. What if Russia and China made a treaty to split the spoils in half?

Shees. Some twisted thoughts here. In what nation were you brainwashed. I have always wondered how one can come up with a thought like that when talking about a " civil " problem.

A volcano disrupts air traffic and you think about ww III. A new weapon of mass destruction has been found, `a volcano`.

[sokal]

I heard on the BBC just now that khao san road is filling up with stranded people. Is that true ?

I can beleive it. I'd have to be pretty desperate to stay there.

I guess if your over 30 then yes but its great for younger people.

[roamer]

The worst case--Several nations realize they do not have the technical edge to control the skies so they use the cover of the ashe keeping the skies clear of AWACS and other air protection to launch an all out WWWIII. Let the ashe cloud grow farther east and you enter countries that are kept at bay by other countires that control the skies. Only mass mobilization is by boat. By the time any reinforcements make it to the middle east a country like China, Russia or India could control the worlds largest oil supply. What if Russia and China made a treaty to split the spoils in half?

Shees. Some twisted thoughts here. In what nation were you brainwashed. I have always wondered how one can come up with a thought like that when talking about a " civil " problem.

A volcano disrupts air traffic and you think about ww III. A new weapon of mass destruction has been found, `a volcano`.

Oh he'll be ok when he puts the aluminum foil back on his head....or maybe not

[needforspeed]

You don't need to worried about this, first there isn't much personel airtrafic between europe and Thailand at the moment.

Aircargo not a problem as well, some flowers and curry sausage less for a month no worries.

To the OP, name me 5 products we not going to get in Thailand without aircargo, want have a influence on you daily life here.

Expect severe-delays to all mail to/from Europe, lasting for some time after flights resume, which is bad news for sick-buffaloes currently awaiting medicinal-payments to arrive.

And aren't there a lot of international-schools, currently closed for Easter-break, about to resume ? So some kids or teachers may be marked 'absent' on Monday-morning !

The smart little monkeys are call the school by themselves and spending a few days at the local video gaming shop

[Rinrada]

I heard on the BBC just now that khao san road is filling up with stranded people. Is that true ?

British Gov ..."angrit" are talking about sending the Royal Navy over to do a Dunkirk style evac./ bring "ome our Nationals........

Must be a fast gunboat.....

Got an election on so...

[Jim's_a_Thai_Fox]

Just for the record and in the interest of good journalism, that Finnish aircraft was described as a BOEING F-18. Firstly, BOEING doesn't make the F-18 Hornet (McDonnell Douglas does) and the aircraft photographed wasn't an F-18 either - I seriously doubt Finland has any F-18s as they are a naval warplane...

...not that I'm a saddo or anything, but thought the intrepid TV folks should be made aware :-)

[CHdiver]

Test flights of different Airlines in Europe did not show any damage till now. Soon the autorities will start to relax and flights will start again. That will be till the first plane falls from the sky. If that should not happen, then we just learned something new. In the end, better safe then sorry.