Bangkok: Another Crackdown, More Bloodshed Expected

[csolgosz]

Thailand needs national unity

From: The Australian

April 20, 2010 12:00AM

The alternative is street fighting among political proxies

THE army was back on the streets of Bangkok yesterday, sending a signal to the Red Shirt protest movement that they should lift their siege of the city and a message to the world that everything was under control. Neither is believable, Thailand's problems run much deeper than the damage done by a large and very well organised protest movement. The Red Shirts support former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed in a military coup in 2006. They want an election, which the exiled Thaksin's side would be likely to win. Despite widespread claims of corruption against him, his policies, including free healthcare for all, make him the darling of the rural poor. But no matter how decisive an election outcome, a vote would solve nothing unless it was accepted by Thaksin's opponents, who despise his populism, sneer at his supporters and can put their own private army on Bangkok's streets. These Yellow Shirts occupied the airport for two months at the end of 2008, and there is talk of their taking on Thaksin's supporter.

The stand-off in the streets places Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in an impossible position. He was appointed, rather than elected, and has no credibility with Thaksin's camp. And the stand-off in the streets is a problem for the army, the usual arbiter of who governs. It seems the generals are loath to either shore up Mr Abhisit or, as they have often done before, take control themselves. The Red Shirts have too much popular support to be easily suppressed and there are suggestions there is sympathy for Thaksin's cause among rank and file soldiers. This was once the sort of situation solved by advice from King Bhumibol Adulyadej. But he is old and ill and shows no sign of intending to intervene.

And so it is up to the politicians. Mr Abhisit wants elections at the end of the year but last week army chief Anupong Paojinda called for an early poll. Given his tenuous position, the Prime Minister has little choice but to agree. Yet unless the political warlords agree to respect the popular vote and unless the winning side undertakes not to wreak revenge on the loser, the results will not matter much.

Without a government committed to national unity and an end to the existing entrenched animosities, Thailand faces the prospect of power going to the side with the toughest colour gang.

So what about the Australian biased reporting??

Unfortunately for Thailand's Army/Mafia-controlled State, Australian media (INCLUDING TV) can report what it likes, so <deleted> are you going to do about it in this poor little UNDEMOCRATIC country. AND if the army does have another bloody crackdown, to remove the protesters from Ratchaprasong, you will see the world media turn again the Thai government and condemn them (As organisations like Amnesty International already have).

This is NOT really about Thaksin, it is a social revolution, and sadly a fair percentage of Bangkok farangs are too ignorant or biased to see that too. For those who claim the 'ngoo' (stupid -see an earlier post) people from the country are doing this, the latest report from the army is that 70% of the protesters are from Bangkok. AND, I think that an honest farmer from Issan is no more 'ngoo' than those Bangkok Hi So Elite Yellows with their fake paid-up degrees from their 3rd-rate Universities...

Living in Thailand has turned me from being a conservative into a die-hard socialist - with good reason!

So bring on the troops and finish off the country...

[Arkady]

Thailand needs national unity

From: The Australian

April 20, 2010 12:00AM

The alternative is street fighting among political proxies

THE army was back on the streets of Bangkok yesterday, sending a signal to the Red Shirt protest movement that they should lift their siege of the city and a message to the world that everything was under control. Neither is believable, Thailand's problems run much deeper than the damage done by a large and very well organised protest movement. The Red Shirts support former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed in a military coup in 2006. They want an election, which the exiled Thaksin's side would be likely to win. Despite widespread claims of corruption against him, his policies, including free healthcare for all, make him the darling of the rural poor. But no matter how decisive an election outcome, a vote would solve nothing unless it was accepted by Thaksin's opponents, who despise his populism, sneer at his supporters and can put their own private army on Bangkok's streets. These Yellow Shirts occupied the airport for two months at the end of 2008, and there is talk of their taking on Thaksin's supporter.

The stand-off in the streets places Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in an impossible position. He was appointed, rather than elected, and has no credibility with Thaksin's camp. And the stand-off in the streets is a problem for the army, the usual arbiter of who governs. It seems the generals are loath to either shore up Mr Abhisit or, as they have often done before, take control themselves. The Red Shirts have too much popular support to be easily suppressed and there are suggestions there is sympathy for Thaksin's cause among rank and file soldiers. This was once the sort of situation solved by advice from King Bhumibol Adulyadej. But he is old and ill and shows no sign of intending to intervene.

And so it is up to the politicians. Mr Abhisit wants elections at the end of the year but last week army chief Anupong Paojinda called for an early poll. Given his tenuous position, the Prime Minister has little choice but to agree. Yet unless the political warlords agree to respect the popular vote and unless the winning side undertakes not to wreak revenge on the loser, the results will not matter much.

Without a government committed to national unity and an end to the existing entrenched animosities, Thailand faces the prospect of power going to the side with the toughest colour gang.

These farang jouralists love to distort facts by claiming that Abhisit was appointed, rather than elected, whereas they know full well that he was elected by a majority of MPs in Parliament in the same way as Samak, Somchai, Gordon Brown and Kevin Rudd were elected. Abhisit only got elected due to the greed of Thaksin's disgusting sister, Yaowapha, who forced her hubby, Somchai, to pull Newin's face out of the trough in favour of her own faction of Northeastern MPs when he was prime minister. As usual Thaksin only has himself to blame but wants the whole country to suffer to correct his own stupid mistakes and give him back his teddy. I would love to see this bleeding heart Ozzie reporter's attitude, if a mega crook like Thaksin was pouring millions into a populist movement to install a corrupt dictatorial regime in Australia but of course this is all OK for third world countries in the name of "democracy" in his paternalistic view.

Edited April 21, 2010 by Arkady

[animatic]

This coming from the pig that turned into a dove. Work out you were rooting for the wrong side did you?

'a pig' would have been more polite unless you are suggesting a fellow poster IS a pig? which breaks forum rules... you can't wait to flame can you??? why not stick to the thread?

I guess they don't deal with 'metaphor' too well in Lanna Land.

Pig being reference to police or authoritarian heavy handedness

and 'Animal Farm' : " Some equals are more equal than others."

In essence peoples revolutions that are typically taken over from within

by an arbitrary, absolutist and abusive ELITE.

Hawk might have been a better usage to match with Dove, which is a sign of peace.

But hey:

"Typical yellow 'kill them' mentality" is such a rational and dove like comment

one designed to calm the situation and bridge gaps and create understandings... <<<trenchant irony inserted here

Pig is not a metaphor actually (in your context) - it is a nasty term for Police (or for me in your context?) - a metaphor is something completely different - such as 'dove of peace' etc.

I guess I must do the heavy lifting today.

You make my point yet again.

met·a·phor –noun

1. a figure of speech in which a term or phrase is applied to something to which it is not literally applicable

n order to suggest a resemblance, as in “A mighty fortress is our god .”Compare mixed metaphor, simile (def. 1).

2. something used, or regarded as being used, to represent something else; emblem; symbol.

sim·i·le -n.

A figure of speech in which two essentially unlike things are compared,

often in a phrase introduced by like or as, as in "How like the winter hath my absence been"

or "So are you to my thoughts as food to life" (Shakespeare).

Some ∪ = ≥ ≈

[animatic]

70% of the protesters are from Bangkok,

because 99% of the people up country won't come to the rally.

Since the rally is pretty small what percentage of 15 million do we have from Bangkok

Oh around 0.1% of Bangkok people. Oh that IS a tide turner...

considering how many up country people live and work in Bangkok...

More people from Issan are put out of work by this rally than are AT the rally.

Edited April 21, 2010 by animatic

[Tejas]

Editing in any meaning is not necessarily the same as censorship - in fact editing has little if anything to do with censorship. Censorship is quite another beast, perhaps among others the harmless looking and seemingly innocent panda up the road from here.

My point, which I think we can agree on, is that there are "editors" who censor for political reasons or ideological reasons, etc. Many are in position of power in terms of what is allowed to enter the flow of global information.

Many are, in point of fact, hired by a well-known agency that I will not disclose. Paranoia? No....it is a fact. Their job is to make sure the status quo remains unchallenged.

What we end up with is pap for the masses........entertain and divert, but whatever you do, don't inform.

Never reveal the TRUTH. Why? Because established power does not want the truth revealed.

More about Chomsky...............I think 95% of Americans have no idea who he is............99% have never read anything by him.

What about Madonna? Probably 99% of Americans know who she is.

There is a reason............and I think we both know what that reason is.

On another post the question is being raised, "who is to blame."

I think the flow of information is to blame.............that means the mainstream mass media and teaching at all levels (including the family).

IMHO, there will be another crackdown (very soon). There will be more bloodshed. And until the day that some honest, well-meaning charismatic figure takes over and guides the public (via a massive alteration of the flow of information) in a positive direction, nothing will change............the status quo will remain.

[agord]

Am still surprised there is electric power for the stages. If the power is coming in on cables, cut the cables. If it's generators, disable the generators (snipers, sabateurs?). Without microphones and PA system the Red movement will crumple faster than a blimp out of gas. Thai public speakers (and musicians) cannot function without a mic and PA system. If you don't believe me, ask yourself, have you ever heard a Thai musician performing (or a public speaker) without a PA system? Didn't think so.

This part has always baffled me, they just seem to be tapping into power lines where ever the want and just set stuff up where ever they choose and nobody stops it.. it simply is not that hard to turn off the power as it were and make them sit around listening to their own thoughts... that would send a lot more home.. right now many of them are being fired up on a daily basis by a long list of lies being repeated over and over again...

It is true the numbers have dropped a huge amount. My last drive by on the fly over on Petchaburi by Ratchadamre I could see over the little hill that empties out by Platinum and a fair ways down the road, this was on Monday, a week ago on the same fly over it was jammed and red shirts as far as the eye could see there is no doubt for whatever reasons the numbers are way way down in that area

Concerning the turning off of the power. This is the Thai way to gain power for a concert or any other event that requires power. They have a local electrician to connect into the power cables coming down the power pole above the local meter. It is called free power. I have seen it done many, many times here in Isaan. EGAT would have to kill the power to the street they are on to shut them down.

right now many of them are being fired up on a daily basis by a long list of lies being repeated over and over again...

how do u know this????? write me a paragraph of lies in thai language that has been spoken

Why on earth would they have to write it in Thai language for you?

[Sabre]

Hysterical, heavily biased nonsense - just another day at the office for the Nation writers. This is not journalism.

Quite right.

Agreed.

[dobadoy]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

[Tejas]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

Yes..........."cuts both ways."

The tragic reality is that it does not matter which side wins.........the elites will retain power.

This "game" is being played at a high level.......it is a power struggle (i.e., struggle over which elite faction retains majority control over the most MONEY).

In the end, the people lose.

This same political game is being played in every nation-state.

Nothing will change until there is fundamental change at a level most people don't think about: the level of ideas/thoughts that underpin decision-making.

For that to happen the flow of information must change (not happening now).

Chanting "change" over and over again does not lead to change (we just saw that in the USA).

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

[ChiangMaiFun]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

Yes..........."cuts both ways."

The tragic reality is that it does not matter which side wins.........the elites will retain power.

This "game" is being played at a high level.......it is a power struggle (i.e., struggle over which elite faction retains majority control over the most MONEY).

In the end, the people lose.

This same political game is being played in every nation-state.

Nothing will change until there is fundamental change at a level most people don't think about: the level of ideas/thoughts that underpin decision-making.

For that to happen the flow of information must change (not happening now).

Chanting "change" over and over again does not lead to change (we just saw that in the USA).

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

Despressingly there is truth in this... and the answer is? (queue drum roll)

[lannarebirth]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

Yes..........."cuts both ways."

The tragic reality is that it does not matter which side wins.........the elites will retain power.

This "game" is being played at a high level.......it is a power struggle (i.e., struggle over which elite faction retains majority control over the most MONEY).

In the end, the people lose.

This same political game is being played in every nation-state.

Nothing will change until there is fundamental change at a level most people don't think about: the level of ideas/thoughts that underpin decision-making.

For that to happen the flow of information must change (not happening now).

Chanting "change" over and over again does not lead to change (we just saw that in the USA).

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

Despressingly there is truth in this... and the answer is? (queue drum roll)

The answer is the lives of Thai people continue to improve over time. Not as fast as some would like and at the expense of some entrenched interests, both in the capitol and in the provinces. The Red Shirts represent those provincial "interests" that feel displaced by Abhisit's stated goals of moving towards a more fair, just and egalitarian society. Maybe the PAD represents those interests nearer the seat of power, but their strong southern constituency would tend to belie that observation. The vast majority of Thai people are aligned with neither group.

Edited April 22, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Sisaketmike]

Hysterical, heavily biased nonsense - just another day at the office for the Nation writers. This is not journalism.

Maybe the plan has to be fine-tuned to ensure minimal loss of life.

Maybe some brains need to be fine-tuned.

[Chaimai]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

CMF has it totally wrong - again. The money/power will always win.

I genuinely hope that some progress can be made with better representation for the 'poor'. It does not matter who wins politically but until we get to 'free and fair' elections, and start to take out the corruption that is endemic in everything the Thais do, this country will not develop.

[Ricardo]

"and the answer is ?"

Small but steady peaceful-steps, towards democracy, and improvements in living-conditions for the poor ?

To hope for some major one-off change, a "new Thai state" or a mythical-hero to arise, is unrealistic IMO, and any 'leader' who promises to deliver this is simply trying to fool their supporters, who should stop believing in snake-oil miracles.

Time now to send their 'leaders' back to negotiate, and return home themselves, before more people (red or military or yellow) get hurt.

Edited April 22, 2010 by Ricardo

[ChiangMaiFun]

Yes..........."cuts both ways."

The tragic reality is that it does not matter which side wins.........the elites will retain power.

This "game" is being played at a high level.......it is a power struggle (i.e., struggle over which elite faction retains majority control over the most MONEY).

In the end, the people lose.

This same political game is being played in every nation-state.

Nothing will change until there is fundamental change at a level most people don't think about: the level of ideas/thoughts that underpin decision-making.

For that to happen the flow of information must change (not happening now).

Chanting "change" over and over again does not lead to change (we just saw that in the USA).

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

Despressingly there is truth in this... and the answer is? (queue drum roll)

The answer is the lives of Thai people continue to improve over time. Not as fast as some would like and at the expense of some entrenched interests, both in the capitol and in the provinces. The Red Shirts represent those provincial "interests" that feel displaced by Abhisit's stated goals of moving towards a more fair, just and egalitarian society. Maybe the PAD represents those interests nearer the seat of power, but their strong southern constituency would tend to belie that observation. The vast majority of Thai people are aligned with neither group.

Agreed... but you always get 'over exaggerations' of positions during the early 'teenage years' of growing nations. The problem is there is no 'middle' party - you see my position comes from a natural aversion to commercialism, materialism and exploitation of the poor by the rich - for me, generally, yellows represent more the rich and reds more the poor:

simplistic, I know

not entirely accurate, I know

muddied by the 'Thaksin Factor', I know

but, generally, broadly, this is my position - 'IF' there was a middle party who helped the poor and down-trodden without the nuisance of the 'Thaksin' factor I would support it - I hate this corruption and double faced noise - all sides are corrupt here - if they actually READ the Buddha's teachings on karma and responsibility (personal) they might tempers their GREED and AVERICE.

[Tejas]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

Yes..........."cuts both ways."

The tragic reality is that it does not matter which side wins.........the elites will retain power.

This "game" is being played at a high level.......it is a power struggle (i.e., struggle over which elite faction retains majority control over the most MONEY).

In the end, the people lose.

This same political game is being played in every nation-state.

Nothing will change until there is fundamental change at a level most people don't think about: the level of ideas/thoughts that underpin decision-making.

For that to happen the flow of information must change (not happening now).

Chanting "change" over and over again does not lead to change (we just saw that in the USA).

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

Despressingly there is truth in this... and the answer is? (queue drum roll)

Solution? That is an interesting topic. I don't have the energy to go down that road.......nobody seems to care or listen.

But the solution is stated above: the flow of information must change

[ChiangMaiFun]

exactly - it's the last ditch attempt by the desperate Elite to retain power - it's over - they are doomed

more hysterical heavily biased nonsense - obviousluy, it cuts both ways

This is all a sick game.......the masses lose.............the elites win.........frustration builds............the game starts over again.

CMF has it totally wrong - again. The money/power will always win.

I genuinely hope that some progress can be made with better representation for the 'poor'. It does not matter who wins politically but until we get to 'free and fair' elections, and start to take out the corruption that is endemic in everything the Thais do, this country will not develop.

You mis-understand... I agree with you - they are doomed - over the next 50 years by small steps - I did not mean they are doomed short-term - but eventually... slowly... inevitably... they are doomed

[lannarebirth]

Despressingly there is truth in this... and the answer is? (queue drum roll)

The answer is the lives of Thai people continue to improve over time. Not as fast as some would like and at the expense of some entrenched interests, both in the capitol and in the provinces. The Red Shirts represent those provincial "interests" that feel displaced by Abhisit's stated goals of moving towards a more fair, just and egalitarian society. Maybe the PAD represents those interests nearer the seat of power, but their strong southern constituency would tend to belie that observation. The vast majority of Thai people are aligned with neither group.

Agreed... but you always get 'over exaggerations' of positions during the early 'teenage years' of growing nations. The problem is there is no 'middle' party - you see my position comes from a natural aversion to commercialism, materialism and exploitation of the poor by the rich - for me, generally, yellows represent more the rich and reds more the poor:

simplistic, I know

not entirely accurate, I know

muddied by the 'Thaksin Factor', I know

but, generally, broadly, this is my position - 'IF' there was a middle party who helped the poor and down-trodden without the nuisance of the 'Thaksin' factor I would support it - I hate this corruption and double faced noise - all sides are corrupt here - if they actually READ the Buddha's teachings on karma and responsibility (personal) they might tempers their GREED and AVERICE.

It's important to remember that with the exception of the Democrats there is no party with any sort of platform. They are all opportunists that can deliver various voting blocs. They morph their ideology of the moment to whomever they cut their latest deal with. In that context the Democrats ARE the "middle party"

Edited April 22, 2010 by lannarebirth

[ChiangMaiFun]

Despressingly there is truth in this... and the answer is? (queue drum roll)

The answer is the lives of Thai people continue to improve over time. Not as fast as some would like and at the expense of some entrenched interests, both in the capitol and in the provinces. The Red Shirts represent those provincial "interests" that feel displaced by Abhisit's stated goals of moving towards a more fair, just and egalitarian society. Maybe the PAD represents those interests nearer the seat of power, but their strong southern constituency would tend to belie that observation. The vast majority of Thai people are aligned with neither group.

Agreed... but you always get 'over exaggerations' of positions during the early 'teenage years' of growing nations. The problem is there is no 'middle' party - you see my position comes from a natural aversion to commercialism, materialism and exploitation of the poor by the rich - for me, generally, yellows represent more the rich and reds more the poor:

simplistic, I know

not entirely accurate, I know

muddied by the 'Thaksin Factor', I know

but, generally, broadly, this is my position - 'IF' there was a middle party who helped the poor and down-trodden without the nuisance of the 'Thaksin' factor I would support it - I hate this corruption and double faced noise - all sides are corrupt here - if they actually READ the Buddha's teachings on karma and responsibility (personal) they might tempers their GREED and AVERICE.

It's important to remember that with the exception of the Democrats there is no party with any sort of platform. They are all opportunists that can deliver various voting blocs. They morph their ideology of the moment to whomever they cut their latest deal with. In that context the Democrats ARE the "middle party"

They appear, to me, to be the 'middle' of the 'right' which is not quite the same - if you see what I mean... the truth is - there is no one party at the moment who in the remotest way is 'inclusive' and 'honest' and I guess it should be seen in the longest terms - hoping that over decades it slowly and surely grows and matures - long after you and I have gone I'll warrant...

[earthpig]

Last night i walked from Prathunam to Silom and from Siam to Ploenchit. The point was to see for myself what is really going on. Four observations.

Red numbers are rising. How ever many there are, there are far, far more than the 5,000 reported at the beginning of the week.

As always, the organization--from food to medical facilities to black shirted young men wearing army boots to defensive baricades--was extremely impressive. The Reds are arguably the best organized group I have ever seen in Thailand in any context. Also, the discipline was remarkable.

There are a lot more young and youngish males as a percentage of the total than at the beginning weeks ago. There are plenty of middle folks still, but youth seems to be growing as a percentage of the total.

Finally, there is anger and energy in significant amounts. At the confronation last night at sala daeng, i visited both sides and the difference in energy in particular was marked. The multicolored shirts eventually dispersed, but not the reds. The impression I had was that had the order come to attack sala daeng, the reds would have whooped for joy, picked up their bamboo and iron rods, prodigious quantities of torn up pavement, and god forbid what else may be hidden away, and charged with eyes blazing.

In contrast, there certainly was no cheer in the eyes of the well armed soldiers strung out along Silom Road.

I also had the impression that the Reds are moving their eastern Sukhumvit barricade from Chitlom to PloenChit. If they move a couple of blocks further, they will cut off access to the motorway next to Ploenchit BTS. Commuting to and fro Sukhumvit, always a laugh, may be about to get a lot funnier.

From what I saw, the Reds will continue to press, and press hard. I suppose their leaders have no choice. They are totally dependant on maintaining, and indeed even increasing their numbers. To attract more, they need to be shown to be winning. And that in turn means expanding their territory. Last night it looked like their strategy is succeeding.

Silom may be blocked, but last night Sukhumvit was unguarded. And beckoning.

[TonyH]

Hysterical, heavily biased nonsense - just another day at the office for the Nation writers. This is not journalism.

why don't the reds just go home and wait for the 9 months,,,, there would have been no bloodshed by either side if they had returned to the negotiating table, there were still options offered to return to the negotiating table,,, and still the red leaders are not interested,,,,, I think it would be insane for anyone to think that it would be for the good of the country if the PM stepped down within 15 days as the red leaders are asking, especially now,,,,, who is trying to make peace and who is trying to break it here,.....

With the annual armed forces reshuffle and promotions coming up, the reds don't want to wait, they (the reds) need to overthrow the government now so they can reshuffle and promote red officers they can easily control, they would finish Thailand's monarchy "Probably not right away, but would let things happen naturally" Taksin would get a pardon and amnesty as would all the red crooks.

Then there would be a new ruling elite and an absolute zero chance for democracy for a very long time.

[chantorn]

Its over people

Hmm, do you really mean "Its over people" or perhaps "It's over, people"?

It is over. The RED have to go home soon, as the army is beating the heII out of them.

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-432683

After being blasted by grenades and petrol bombs, and being shot at, does it surprise you that the army gets a bit violent.

This shouldn't happen, but the headline on the ireport "Killings in Bangkok" is a bit over the top.

100% agree with you that the Heading is wrong.

However, this happens BEFORE they were blasted by grenades and petrol bombs.

[lannarebirth]

It's important to remember that with the exception of the Democrats there is no party with any sort of platform. They are all opportunists that can deliver various voting blocs. They morph their ideology of the moment to whomever they cut their latest deal with. In that context the Democrats ARE the "middle party"

They appear, to me, to be the 'middle' of the 'right' which is not quite the same - if you see what I mean... the truth is - there is no one party at the moment who in the remotest way is 'inclusive' and 'honest' and I guess it should be seen in the longest terms - hoping that over decades it slowly and surely grows and matures - long after you and I have gone I'll warrant...

All parties, with the exception of the communists (which aren't a party) are right wing in Thailand. The Democrats are the furthest to the left of that group. You didn't read any of that stuff I PM'd you did you?

[BKjohn]

Negotiations require willingness on both sides to solve a problem, come to a compromise. In this case this is not happening because the red shirts have on numerous occasions refused to negotiate and are not willing to give an inch.

The reasons why they even refused a compromise of new elections within 6 months shows very clearly that there is a hidden agenda on the reds side. This agenda is dictated by their absent (since he is a convicted criminal, facing jail) leader who is financing the red terrorists.

Yes, not all reds are terrorists, a large number are simply farmers and motorcycle gangs who are in it for the money they get and the action. They are being used by the center core group with the leaders which is by all means and purpose a terrorist cell.

The attack on the fuel tank would have led to huge losses of life - grenade attacks virtually daily and their simple refusal to obey the law of the land + the train attack in Kong Ken - all those actions leave no daubed that they are a terrorist cell trying to take over the legal government of this country.

It is difficult to understand how it is possible that anyone with a minimum education can fall for their propaganda with putting the melodramatic "cries" of help from the "poor" as the reason for the "uprising". If you have figured out that Santa Claus really does not exist you should realize that the agenda of this mob is not to help the poor but to re-install Thaksin into power and the red shirt leaders will be well rewarded with lucrative positions in government while those so called "poor" will be send back home, having lost their usefulness as human shields.

Thaksin, will of course be opposed by the educated masses of Thailand ... those called "the elite" by the red shirts will of course fight Thaksins takeover and Thailand will sink into a civil war with dramatic results for the population with huge losses of life and the economy.

Considering Thaksins record he will turn Thailand into a republic with him as president for life and than, the red followers will find out what a Dictatorship really means.

It is a fact that Thaksin has very close ties to Burma and favors the regime there. One of his telecom deals while he was PM shows this more then clearly. Before he returns he has to get rid of any opposition in the army and install his followers into key positions. This is the real reason in his agenda why he wants the government to step down before the re-shuffle - allowing him to undertake this move, making his return a smooth process without any army intervention against him.

Edited April 22, 2010 by Jai Dee

[ChiangMaiFun]

It's important to remember that with the exception of the Democrats there is no party with any sort of platform. They are all opportunists that can deliver various voting blocs. They morph their ideology of the moment to whomever they cut their latest deal with. In that context the Democrats ARE the "middle party"

They appear, to me, to be the 'middle' of the 'right' which is not quite the same - if you see what I mean... the truth is - there is no one party at the moment who in the remotest way is 'inclusive' and 'honest' and I guess it should be seen in the longest terms - hoping that over decades it slowly and surely grows and matures - long after you and I have gone I'll warrant...

All parties, with the exception of the communists (which aren't a party) are right wing in Thailand. The Democrats are the furthest to the left of that group. You didn't read any of that stuff I PM'd you did you?

I shall do at some stage thanks - rather heavy going!

[animatic]

"and the answer is ?"

Small but steady peaceful-steps, towards democracy, and improvements in living-conditions for the poor ?

To hope for some major one-off change, a "new Thai state" or a mythical-hero to arise, is unrealistic IMO, and any 'leader' who promises to deliver this is simply trying to fool their supporters, who should stop believing in snake-oil miracles.

Time now to send their 'leaders' back to negotiate, and return home themselves, before more people (red or military or yellow) get hurt.

Agreed.

Big changes and radical movements usually cause big dislocations

and hurt the average person much more than graduated change for the better.

Change is inevitable, but radical change like a New Free Thai State,

would mean no functioning government in place for an extended time,

most services and public works lost for an extended period,

actual warfare to make it come about, families and children's lives torn asunder. etc.

The Red shirts aims or methodologies have 3 logical outcomes.

Total loss because the present control structure did not succumb to their attacks.

This the worst for the reds but best long term for the nation as a whole.

A partial win because the government stood down and gave up.

Causing political grid lock in a Parliament controlled by incompetent zealots

controlled by Thaksin in or out of country, and social dislocation by the victors sticking it to the losers.

And likely a sooner than later a "recoup", of what could only be seen as a red coup for Thaksin.

A direct decent into civil war and battle of Bangkok that dislocates most Thais a la Sarejevo,

and divides the country for decades to come. Worst case decades of guerrilla warfare.

Regardless of the potential for violence in clean out this hornets nest,

the alternatives are MUCH more dire and far reaching in negative impacts.

Edited April 22, 2010 by animatic

[earthpig]

Yes, not all reds are terrorists, a large number are simply brainless farmers and motorcycle gangs who are in it for the money they get and the action...

There is truth in this, but I think not the whole truth. Many Reds feel aggrieved that they have been treated unfairly by the elites, both economically and politically. As usual, the real truth lies somewhere in between the positions staked out by Reds and Yellows.

The fact is that the Reds felt they had someone in power who looked out for them--"them" being largely ethnic Lao from Issan--and then Thaksin was overthrown. Nothing rankles like hope taken away.

The Reds have the energy, an energy metabolized by anger and frustration. Surely the elites understand that if the army uses large scale force to clear out tens of thousands of Reds--including large numbers of women,children and elderly--the government will become a pariah regime overnight, and spark an armed insurgency.

Those of us living here, Thai and foreigner alike, can only hope that reason prevails and that a compromise on the date for Parliament dissolution is announced very soon. If not, foreigners might soon be stampeding the exits.

[anotherpeter]

Yes, not all reds are terrorists, a large number are simply brainless farmers and motorcycle gangs who are in it for the money they get and the action...

There is truth in this, but I think not the whole truth. Many Reds feel aggrieved that they have been treated unfairly by the elites, both economically and politically. As usual, the real truth lies somewhere in between the positions staked out by Reds and Yellows.

The fact is that the Reds felt they had someone in power who looked out for them--"them" being largely ethnic Lao from Issan--and then Thaksin was overthrown. Nothing rankles like hope taken away.

The Reds have the energy, an energy metabolized by anger and frustration. Surely the elites understand that if the army uses large scale force to clear out tens of thousands of Reds--including large numbers of women,children and elderly--the government will become a pariah regime overnight, and spark an armed insurgency.

Those of us living here, Thai and foreigner alike, can only hope that reason prevails and that a compromise on the date for Parliament dissolution is announced very soon. If not, foreigners might soon be stampeding the exits.

I thought a compromise had been announced during the negotiations.

The Democrats went from 21 months to 9 months.

The reds went from 15 days to ......... 15 days.

Thaksin doesn't want a compromise. He wants to be in power now.

Edited April 22, 2010 by anotherpeter

[ChiangMaiFun]

Yes, not all reds are terrorists, a large number are simply brainless farmers and motorcycle gangs who are in it for the money they get and the action...

There is truth in this, but I think not the whole truth. Many Reds feel aggrieved that they have been treated unfairly by the elites, both economically and politically. As usual, the real truth lies somewhere in between the positions staked out by Reds and Yellows.

The fact is that the Reds felt they had someone in power who looked out for them--"them" being largely ethnic Lao from Issan--and then Thaksin was overthrown. Nothing rankles like hope taken away.

The Reds have the energy, an energy metabolized by anger and frustration. Surely the elites understand that if the army uses large scale force to clear out tens of thousands of Reds--including large numbers of women,children and elderly--the government will become a pariah regime overnight, and spark an armed insurgency.

Those of us living here, Thai and foreigner alike, can only hope that reason prevails and that a compromise on the date for Parliament dissolution is announced very soon. If not, foreigners might soon be stampeding the exits.

earthpig - that is THE problem... while the elite manipulate and grow rich the poor, eventually, will react - Thaksin is just a catalyst in many ways - they need a vent - a peaceful one would have been much better of course - maybe a 'commission' with a 'respected statesman' from another country might help to a compromise which, inevitably, will involve an early election.

[BKjohn]

The government has really no choice but to move now. Every day the terrorists stay in control of Bangkok they grow in confidence. The fact that boggles once mind how it happened, the takeover of a train full of soldiers of course only strengthens their resolve.

The government has to call marshal law and remove the red-shirts from Bangkok no matter what the cost NOW - waiting any longer will result in uncontrollable fights between red shirts and "the other-colored shirts" and an even greater loss of life and the possibility of civil war or actions by the reds based on IRA tactics from the 70's/80's in the UK with car bombs going off all over the place.

This may also happen if the leaders are not caught and under marshal law shot as saboteurs - traitors/ terrorist. The leadership has to be removed, than the rest will disintegrate. Anything else will eventually lead to chaos for the whole country for years to come.

Their leaders show no morality or hesitance against killing others as the RPG attack on the petrol tank and the numerous grenade attacks have clearly shown.