Thai Protesters, Army Make Tentative Peace Overtures

[rabo]

Fortunately, the people on the government side of things do not take their advice from the simplistic bloodlusting self appointed experts of Thai Visa.

"The use of force will not end the current problems and would have many repercussions,"

- General Anupong Paojinda at a meeting of military commanders according to deputy spokesman Colonel Sirichan Ngathong.

"The best thing is to create understanding among the people. The army's job now is to take care of the people, and not allow Thais to attack each other."

- General Anupong Paojindaupong

AFP also reports that the General stated to its reporter that he aimed to end the stand-off without further bloodshed, saying the authorities "can uphold the law with no people dead or injured".

The Redshirts and the General will try to find a way to end this peacefully. If the Redshirts obtain a way to exit without a loss of face, they will have emerged with an important political victory: The end of the Abhisit government. If the General pulls this off he will rbe seen as the man that restored the military's reputation as the defender of the realm. A settlement virtually guarantees that no politician in the forseeable future would dare interfere with the military's place in Thai society. The people will not allow the institution that kept the country from civil war to be harmed.

That is what is at stake.

The people most worried now might be those in a turf warf war with the UDD and the military for access to the public trough. I anticipate that other groups will attempt to delay the settlement and to provoke the Redshirts and the military. With peace, the Reds will have cemented their core support group and the military restored its credibility. The opposing factions cannot have these two groups in strong negotiating positions.

You have overlooked the most important thing that Anupong said, that the Army will ultimately protect the monarch. Ultimately reffers to last line of defense. The Army also stated that the cause of the problems come from a "concerted effort to grab power and attack the monarchy"

Thus, any "compromise" must abandon Thaksin's main goals.

Edited April 24, 2010 by rabo

[zorm999]

Abhisit looks incompetent, Anupong looks like he is in charge. Abhisit could not broker an agreement in one month and two negotiation sessions. Anupong says no killing and everyone stops? Sounds fishy too me. Sounds like Anupong cut this deal on the side with the red shirts. Makes Abhisit look lame.

Anyway, the Democrats are out of it with dissolution either for violating campaign regulations, or through vote. It's not over yet, but people get what they want at the expense of..... THE TAXPAYERS and the DEAD!!!!!

Abhisits looks incompetent?

You should be saying thank you to him!!!

IMHO if there was a less a person in charge

the reds would have been dispersed already

The reds are very lucky the ultimate crackdown

has not come ..... yet.

The gorvernment cannot call elections based on red

shirt terms,. if they do it means that protests and mob

rule and mahem rule the future ... You cannot in any

civilized country bow tro the pressures of this sort of

tactic. If you do, there will be no peaceful future.

If you bow and call elections then the protestors want,

they have exxential won.

Then no matter who wins the next election, there is sure

to be more protests as soon as an ooposing group feels

disenfranchized form the government.

Exactly! The biggest problem with Abhisit calling early elections is that all of Thailand's various political groups will learn that they only have to stage a mass protest for long enough and the government will be too scared to cop the bad publicity of a massacre, so will have to give in to them. I know the reds will say "it's different this time because the current govt is not legitimate", but that will not make ANY difference in the future because every group who protests believes their cause is legitimate. The method will be tested and proven and so will be used again. Long-term, it will be a disaster for Thailand if Abhisit gives in. But then it's going to be a disaster if he doesn't. I really pity him in his situation and I pity the people of Thailand who will have to live with the consequences either way. Whenever mob rules there can be no true democracy nor peace.

Edited April 24, 2010 by zorm999

[Old Man River]

How does this improve the situation? So they are JUST GONNA let the red shirts n yellow shirts kill each other?

Well now that appears to be the plan, and it sounds like a good one to me.

The government needs a good reason to call marital law and an imminent clash between relatively sizable groups willing to kill each other in the streets of Bangkok is a good excuse for martial law. Few would argue it or accuse the military of a coup when it would be clear they were protecting unarmed, uninvolved citizens.

The Yellows would probably go home, but I suspect the Red leaders would have a big problem. They would have to either tell their followers to go home with the usual 'we will be back' or tell the women and children to stay and fight against martial law. My guess is that the Reds' leaders would defy martial law if they couldn't work out personal deals. Reds leaders now are looking at jail sentences with some looking at death sentences now that Methee has admitted the slaughter on April 10th was pre-meditated with daily planning sessions that some of the Red leaders were present at. He has named names and locations.

Moreover, despite expected protests to the contrary, the Silom attack came from behind the Reds' lines. That was the downside of their barricading themselves in. It delineated their area and with different camera angles of the M79 attacks (which exist) as well as an independent confirmation of a reporter of where the grenade attacks came from, it is clear the authorities have another example of a Red violent act.

As for Abhisit, i think he will have to continue to sit back until the military has a good excuse to call martial law.

[LevelHead]

Told my absolutely loyal (to me - farang) red shirt employee already that Sunday the Thai world would look differently. He asked back "sure?" Hope I can be sure - Methi and the grenades coverage from Lumpini Park could do the work.

Methi - ? What difference is that going to make.

How about the Thai soldiers held by the red shirts on April the 11th who made similar confessions but against the other side. Both sides will deny anything said, both will claim its coerced information and untrue.

Coverage from Lumphini ? There is none. Some might be being manufactured now, but there was nothing released yesterday morning. Any real information would have been released directly, not sat around for days hidden away. Govt say from Lumphini area, Reds say likely from Government agents to create unrest and make more people anti-Red. Nothing is clear at all, the only thing that was clear was that the multicolor campaign was designed to incite violence and allow someone to get killed.

Whats the score now ?

Reds 19 dead

Solidiers 5 dead

Japan 1 dead

Multicolors 1 dead.

Is that how some of you here look at it ?

Media coverage in THailand has been only of Soldiers and Multicolor deaths.

Reds and Japan has been ignored, not shown, censored, not allowed to be on TV, not talked about, kept quiet, mention it just a little bit but make it out that they killed by other Reds and MIB

Free and fair press in Thailand ? The media and the government of Thailand are showing themselves up very very badly in the eyes of the world.

[LevelHead]

How does this improve the situation? So they are JUST GONNA let the red shirts n yellow shirts kill each other?

Well now that appears to be the plan, and it sounds like a good one to me.

The government needs a good reason to call marital law and an imminent clash between relatively sizable groups willing to kill each other in the streets of Bangkok is a good excuse for martial law. Few would argue it or accuse the military of a coup when it would be clear they were protecting unarmed, uninvolved citizens.

The Yellows would probably go home, but I suspect the Red leaders would have a big problem. They would have to either tell their followers to go home with the usual 'we will be back' or tell the women and children to stay and fight against martial law. My guess is that the Reds' leaders would defy martial law if they couldn't work out personal deals. Reds leaders now are looking at jail sentences with some looking at death sentences now that Methee has admitted the slaughter on April 10th was pre-meditated with daily planning sessions that some of the Red leaders were present at. He has named names and locations.

Moreover, despite expected protests to the contrary, the Silom attack came from behind the Reds' lines. That was the downside of their barricading themselves in. It delineated their area and with different camera angles of the M79 attacks (which exist) as well as an independent confirmation of a reporter of where the grenade attacks came from, it is clear the authorities have another example of a Red violent act.

As for Abhisit, i think he will have to continue to sit back until the military has a good excuse to call martial law.

Nonsense.

There is reason enough for a coup already if they could, its just that the present leaders in the Army will not allow a coup. They have been asked and pressured but because the control of the army is balanced they have been unable to do it.

Team Yellow is desperate for a coup.

This is why Team Yellow now wants Yellow v Red fights, to again pressure and push for a coup.

Its why Team Yellow has tried to prevent Chavilit/Somchai having their meeting with the top man.

Team Yellow are going all out for a coup, they have the puppet Abhisit on a string and do not want to dissolve the House, they are desperate to stay in power long enough to reshuffle the military so that they can call a coup.

Thats their plan and why there is presently stalemate.

In order to break the stalemate Team Yellow wants more violence - which is why Chavilit/Somchai are trying to stop it happening by going above Team Yellow's head.

Its all very simple to follow.

[Old Man River]

Fortunately, the people on the government side of things do not take their advice from the simplistic bloodlusting self appointed experts of Thai Visa.

"The use of force will not end the current problems and would have many repercussions,"

- General Anupong Paojinda at a meeting of military commanders according to deputy spokesman Colonel Sirichan Ngathong.

"The best thing is to create understanding among the people. The army's job now is to take care of the people, and not allow Thais to attack each other."

- General Anupong Paojindaupong

AFP also reports that the General stated to its reporter that he aimed to end the stand-off without further bloodshed, saying the authorities "can uphold the law with no people dead or injured".

The Redshirts and the General will try to find a way to end this peacefully. If the Redshirts obtain a way to exit without a loss of face, they will have emerged with an important political victory: The end of the Abhisit government. If the General pulls this off he will rbe seen as the man that restored the military's reputation as the defender of the realm. A settlement virtually guarantees that no politician in the forseeable future would dare interfere with the military's place in Thai society. The people will not allow the institution that kept the country from civil war to be harmed.

That is what is at stake.

The people most worried now might be those in a turf warf war with the UDD and the military for access to the public trough. I anticipate that other groups will attempt to delay the settlement and to provoke the Redshirts and the military. With peace, the Reds will have cemented their core support group and the military restored its credibility. The opposing factions cannot have these two groups in strong negotiating positions.

You have overlooked the most important thing that Anupong said, that the Army will ultimately protect the monarch. Ultimately reffers to last line of defense. The Army also stated that the cause of the problems come from a "concerted effort to grab power and attack the monarchy"

Thus, any "compromise" must abandon Thaksin's main goals.

In my humble opinion, that is spot on and is the reason that dissolution cannot occur until after the military reshuffle. There already been a lot written about this so no need to rehash.

[BKjohn]

Thaksin has won!

As unbelievable as it may sound, the army’s statement of non interference means that the coup was successful. Terrorists have brought the Thai government to its knees.

It also means that the next group that wants money now knows that all they have to do is to get enough people together, arm them and have a few thousand “civilians” mingle with them as human shields and they will get what they want.

This will of course change ones Thaksin is back which will most likely be before the end of the year.

Why did the army turn against the government?

a) The chief is going to retire soon and it is any ones guess what may have happened

They want Bangkok quite again and under control and than stage a coup

c) Thaksins forces within the army have prevailed

The reason of wanting no more blood-shed does not really run. There are enough riot control chemicals available which can be used for the none leathal disposal of rioting crowds and sure they must have them in their arsenal.

Why such material was not used earlier ? well its any ones guess

As the Chinese would say; We live in interesting times

Edited April 24, 2010 by BKjohn

[poskat]

Would the next government take a lesson fro the current situation and not have the same hands off attitude as a new protest develops?

isnt the issue not the protests per se, but the lack of any security forces being willing to disperse/restrict them?

the way to end "mob rule" is to not let them get to a critical mass in areas where they can cause economic damage.

having the right to protest is inherent to good democracy. the right to protest and ruin the economic well being of others isn't.

the yellows closed the airport and got their way. the reds closed down siam sq/silom and may get their way.

it's up to the next government iteration, to draw a stop to the cycle, or its own lifespan is limited to the next mob massing.

[Old Man River]

How does this improve the situation? So they are JUST GONNA let the red shirts n yellow shirts kill each other?

Well now that appears to be the plan, and it sounds like a good one to me.

The government needs a good reason to call marital law and an imminent clash between relatively sizable groups willing to kill each other in the streets of Bangkok is a good excuse for martial law. Few would argue it or accuse the military of a coup when it would be clear they were protecting unarmed, uninvolved citizens.

The Yellows would probably go home, but I suspect the Red leaders would have a big problem. They would have to either tell their followers to go home with the usual 'we will be back' or tell the women and children to stay and fight against martial law. My guess is that the Reds' leaders would defy martial law if they couldn't work out personal deals. Reds leaders now are looking at jail sentences with some looking at death sentences now that Methee has admitted the slaughter on April 10th was pre-meditated with daily planning sessions that some of the Red leaders were present at. He has named names and locations.

Moreover, despite expected protests to the contrary, the Silom attack came from behind the Reds' lines. That was the downside of their barricading themselves in. It delineated their area and with different camera angles of the M79 attacks (which exist) as well as an independent confirmation of a reporter of where the grenade attacks came from, it is clear the authorities have another example of a Red violent act.

As for Abhisit, i think he will have to continue to sit back until the military has a good excuse to call martial law.

Nonsense.

There is reason enough for a coup already if they could, its just that the present leaders in the Army will not allow a coup. They have been asked and pressured but because the control of the army is balanced they have been unable to do it.

Team Yellow is desperate for a coup.

This is why Team Yellow now wants Yellow v Red fights, to again pressure and push for a coup.

Its why Team Yellow has tried to prevent Chavilit/Somchai having their meeting with the top man.

Team Yellow are going all out for a coup, they have the puppet Abhisit on a string and do not want to dissolve the House, they are desperate to stay in power long enough to reshuffle the military so that they can call a coup.

Thats their plan and why there is presently stalemate.

In order to break the stalemate Team Yellow wants more violence - which is why Chavilit/Somchai are trying to stop it happening by going above Team Yellow's head.

Its all very simple to follow.

You are overly simplifying a complex situation. Note, I never call another's opinions nonsense. It is a sign of immaturity.

Team Yellow is a conduit at best. Take a look at Rabo's comments and filter that into your thoughts. I can tell you this, but I can't prove it to you (it isn't in writing), Anupong and his advisors have not wanted a coup for a long time due to the problems from the last one. Instead, they have been constantly looking for current situations to effect political solutions. The Yellow's may just be what the doctor ordered this time.

I will add this, Thaksin's group from the military may well be looking for a coup so they can shift out Gen. Prem's group at the top. There has been a lot written on this. If they can't get the dissolution prior to the reshuffle, then an attempted coup from this side is always a possibility.

[rabo]

Media coverage in THailand has been only of Soldiers and Multicolor deaths.

Reds and Japan has been ignored, not shown, censored, not allowed to be on TV, not talked about, kept quiet, mention it just a little bit but make it out that they killed by other Reds and MIB

Free and fair press in Thailand ? The media and the government of Thailand are showing themselves up very very badly in the eyes of the world.

This is nonsense, especially since the government along with Khunying Pornthip have investigated the Japanese camera man's death and stated clearly through the news media that he was shot by a stray bullet from an Army rifle.

I would trust the Thai media over Levelhead's media any day.

Edit:everyday.

Edited April 24, 2010 by rabo

[WildDave99]

'Abhisit, who has been holed up in a military barracks for weeks because of the protests, added: "I have a duty to solve the problem. If I can't I should not be here."'

The above is a direct quote from the article at the head of this thrtead.

It seems that Abhisit has already commited himself to resign as he has not solved the problem and it appears that he is no nearer to solving it than he was when it started .. Time for him to go for the sake of Thailand, the Thai peoples' lives and the Thai economy. With the correct wording of a statement from him the present government could step down without any further lose of face.

[Crushdepth]

Agreed. Seems like a decent compromise

If the reds lose the next election will they honor the result? No? So why compromise ?

All you need to get rid of a government around here is a knock-off M79 and some dud ammo that only goes off 50% of the time. It's pathetic.

[ChiangMaiFun]

'Abhisit, who has been holed up in a military barracks for weeks because of the protests, added: "I have a duty to solve the problem. If I can't I should not be here."'

The above is a direct quote from the article at the head of this thrtead.

It seems that Abhisit has already commited himself to resign as he has not solved the problem and it appears that he is no nearer to solving it than he was when it started .. Time for him to go for the sake of Thailand, the Thai peoples' lives and the Thai economy. With the correct wording of a statement from him the present government could step down without any further lose of face.

Exactly - let's hope this happens swiftly and elections are organised with an outside agency ensuring fairness - and everyone must accept the result - surely Abhisit must declare an election agreement today.

[animatic]

What makes me wonder is why yesterday Anupong issued final warning, and today he is issuing no crack down orders.

Made a deal? got a payment? sudden attack of morality?

Innocent dead bodies on the streets of Bangkok can have a sobering effect.

Anupong is a watermelon - green on the outside, RED on the inside.... I think he is being PAID by THAKSIN not to crack down... he has been order to disperse the protesters.... he has DIRECTLY DEFIED the orders from the Prime Minister.

I think he should either be fired, or made Prime Minister!!!

Prime Minister Anupong....

Misunderstanding of how things work I think. The PM transferred responsibility to Anupong. (Ie: Gen Anupong, will you kindly go and sort out this fuc_king mess because nobody else around here seems to be able to do anything) No direct orders about how to do it....that's not how it works. The PM has now to some extent distanced himself from whatever happens and the General has the green light to make decisions about the actions to be taken. The General not wanting to go down in history as the guy responsible for a blood bath any more that the PM....tries to make a deal with the reds....lets just go through some posturing for a bit...we can chat to the PM...and I'm sure we can make a deal. (In the meantime talks are likely already underway behind all the political theater) There is possible compromise from both sides....I believe there has been for some time but they have to go through all the right circumlocutions first so nobody is seen to be really backing down or losing face.

Virtually all conflicts end with some kind of negotiated settlement in the end...........what else is there? You can't shoot everybody.

Good post.

As long as Thaksin isn't the final arbiter on all points, then a deal can probably get done.

If he has the final say so 100%, then there will likely be violence. Because some of his points

have to be non-negotiable for the Gov. side.

Such as pardoning all the ronins and red leaders who did violence. etc.

Maybe Verra Nuttawhat and Weng can get a pass, but Arisman and a few other 'actionistas'

MUST be brought to book.

[longway]

Told my absolutely loyal (to me - farang) red shirt employee already that Sunday the Thai world would look differently. He asked back "sure?" Hope I can be sure - Methi and the grenades coverage from Lumpini Park could do the work.

Methi - ? What difference is that going to make.

How about the Thai soldiers held by the red shirts on April the 11th who made similar confessions but against the other side. Both sides will deny anything said, both will claim its coerced information and untrue.

Coverage from Lumphini ? There is none. Some might be being manufactured now, but there was nothing released yesterday morning. Any real information would have been released directly, not sat around for days hidden away. Govt say from Lumphini area, Reds say likely from Government agents to create unrest and make more people anti-Red. Nothing is clear at all, the only thing that was clear was that the multicolor campaign was designed to incite violence and allow someone to get killed.

Whats the score now ?

Reds 19 dead

Solidiers 5 dead

Japan 1 dead

Multicolors 1 dead.

Is that how some of you here look at it ?

Media coverage in THailand has been only of Soldiers and Multicolor deaths.

Reds and Japan has been ignored, not shown, censored, not allowed to be on TV, not talked about, kept quiet, mention it just a little bit but make it out that they killed by other Reds and MIB

Free and fair press in Thailand ? The media and the government of Thailand are showing themselves up very very badly in the eyes of the world.

As you are a liar and dissembler, I would usually never resond to anything you say. However I feel that the point about the grenade launches are iimportant. There is you tube video footage on another thread that cleary shows that at least one grenade was launched from Lumpini.

Secondly there was news yesterday that security camera footage shows that grenades came from Lumpini, this was not released as the footage has been passed onto the DSI from the BMA. Obviously the BMA is not in the position to release this kind of footage to the general public. Lets see what comes of it.

[way2muchcoffee]

'Abhisit, who has been holed up in a military barracks for weeks because of the protests, added: "I have a duty to solve the problem. If I can't I should not be here."'

The above is a direct quote from the article at the head of this thrtead.

It seems that Abhisit has already commited himself to resign as he has not solved the problem and it appears that he is no nearer to solving it than he was when it started .. Time for him to go for the sake of Thailand, the Thai peoples' lives and the Thai economy. With the correct wording of a statement from him the present government could step down without any further lose of face.

You make the mistake of thinking it is just Abhisit who will go in a house dissolution. The entire government, cabinet, the elected MPs from Democrats and coalition partners representing over 50% of the electorate, etc. etc. etc. This is not just a decision for Abhisit. This is a decision that must be made in consultation with all affected parties.

[brahmburgers]

Anupong paints himself in to a corner by announcing what he won't do (use strong measures).

A general should keep all his options available.

Wrong.

A general should cross out those options that are counterproductive to his objectives.

Wrong. A general should keep all options available, and just as important, not broadcast self-limitations to adversaries. The Reds are dangerous adversaries. Some of their members have recently killed and wounded his fellow soldiers and officers. The Reds still maintain disguised combat trained men with combat weapons ready to deploy at a moments notice. You don't offer to play tiddly winks with an armed mob that is ready to ransack your house.

[ChiangMaiFun]

.

Anupong is a watermelon - green on the outside, RED on the inside.... I think he is being PAID by THAKSIN not to crack down... he has been order to disperse the protesters.... he has DIRECTLY DEFIED the orders from the Prime Minister.

I think he should either be fired, or made Prime Minister!!!

Prime Minister Anupong....

Misunderstanding of how things work I think. The PM transferred responsibility to Anupong. (Ie: Gen Anupong, will you kindly go and sort out this fuc_king mess because nobody else around here seems to be able to do anything) No direct orders about how to do it....that's not how it works. The PM has now to some extent distanced himself from whatever happens and the General has the green light to make decisions about the actions to be taken. The General not wanting to go down in history as the guy responsible for a blood bath any more that the PM....tries to make a deal with the reds....lets just go through some posturing for a bit...we can chat to the PM...and I'm sure we can make a deal. (In the meantime talks are likely already underway behind all the political theater) There is possible compromise from both sides....I believe there has been for some time but they have to go through all the right circumlocutions first so nobody is seen to be really backing down or losing face.

Virtually all conflicts end with some kind of negotiated settlement in the end...........what else is there? You can't shoot everybody.

Good post.

As long as Thaksin isn't the final arbiter on all points, then a deal can probably get done.

If he has the final say so 100%, then there will likely be violence. Because some of his points

have to be non-negotiable for the Gov. side.

Such as pardoning all the ronins and red leaders who did violence. etc.

Maybe Verra Nuttawhat and Weng can get a pass, but Arisman and a few other 'actionistas'

MUST be brought to book.

I'm 90% with you but there has to be a 'truce' which includes pardoning all (except those 'blacks' who sniped - they are unforgivable and must be caught and punished). It would not be wise to keep pushing the 'Thaksin' button - better to just get to a 3 month election compromise and stop the carnage. However, a caveate, I do think there has to be some sort of 'outside' monitoring of elections.

[TheItaliann]

^^ since when is anyone brought to book in Thailand?

[hammered]

Most analysis on here picks the bits people want to back their chosen horse.

Important things from the last few days:

Methee's confession. No way was he going to take it all on his own shoulders and naming the black shirts and naming who gave the shoot order and naming who supllied the weapons

Anupong saying: no clearance, attempt to ovverthrow key institutions, will protect monarchy, wont let thais kill each other

Military saying 400 armed red shirts

Sanan and Abhisit resolving the Sanan as PTP PM stuff

If true rumours of Thaksin being very ill (may or may not be true this one)

Vidoes indicating grenades fired from red lines and possibly a VOA reporter who states reds fired RPGs reported on FM100.5

Analyse this and work out why the red leadership are offering suddenly a 3-5 month election timeframe depending on what leader you listen to. Note this is a negotiating position and wont be the final agreed timeline

Note also that whatever romatic notions people want to believe there are some pretty powerful characters ouit on a limb here and they wont want to even have what they did stated publically so it isnt what the red leadership say it will all be carved up behind closed dorrs and the rumours are these big ones are trying for a September election whether before or after the reshuffle who knows and that will likely depend on how people see the elction going which will be affected big time by the stuff listed above

Apart form Abhisit and the reds and the military and the red side elite the PAD, the multicoloureds and the coalition allies also need to buy into any deal, which complicates matters

Edited April 24, 2010 by hammered

[way2muchcoffee]

I'm 90% with you but there has to be a 'truce' which includes pardoning all (except those 'blacks' who sniped - they are unforgivable and must be caught and punished). It would not be wise to keep pushing the 'Thaksin' button - better to just get to a 3 month election compromise and stop the carnage. However, a caveate, I do think there has to be some sort of 'outside' monitoring of elections.

And what if it can be proven that the grenade throwers are funded by PTP/PPP/TRT MPs or Thaksin, or were acting on orders from the red leaders? They too would then be tried on terrorism charges.

[TheItaliann]

I think there are going to be a whole lot of suspended sentences. The Thai government is tough on crime and corruption. Curious, was the PAD occupation of a National Airport "legal"? ...

[BKjohn]

The Thai army has surrendered to a group of anarchists - this is what it all boils down to. This is simply not done unless there is some hidden agenda - Unless someone is controlling the game - in this case from Dubai.

No matter how you look at it, what the General said is very clear; no matter what the reds do, the army will not use force and if this isn't giving card blanch to them I don't know what it is.

[brahmburgers]

These red shirts that are in the negotiations. Are they the same red shirts who face terrorism charges etc.. etc..?

Right. The Army top brass is as vacillating as the average Thai - stern one moment, flaccid the next, back and forth. If they act like terrorists, and they're formally accused of terrorism - then bring them to court. If they're found guilty, then sentence them and stick with it.

Message to authorities: Don't make deals about when they should turn themselves in. Don't allow bail for serious offenses. Don't giggle and smile when they say they're sorry (for killing soldiers and hamstringing Bkk for 5 weeks), and just pat them on the back and say, "oh, we're not so different, let's just be buddies and forget all that happened last month."

Team Yellow is desperate for a coup. This is why Team Yellow now wants Yellow v Red fights, to again pressure and push for a coup. Its why Team Yellow has tried to prevent Chavilit/Somchai having their meeting with the top man. Team Yellow are going all out for a coup, they have the puppet Abhisit on a string.... In order to break the stalemate Team Yellow wants more violence......

No on uses the term 'Team Yellow' but you, and you're so full of yourself you bluster out all sorts of alarmist projections. Try as you might, all your wishful thinking won't tarnish the Yellow Shirts. Any reasonable observer of recent years' events will know you're full of yellow bile. Similar to Abhisit, the Yellows have been remarkably restrained lately. This is about Red hot heads and how the limp wristed gov't and Army are bowing to mob pressure. It's also about how one man with enough money and willingness can bring Thailand to its knees for his personal power-crazed agenda.

If the Reds get their way, then you'll hear from the Yellows, because both colors have reinforced the protocol that mobs can direct Thai politics.

[chadintheusa]

The Thai army has surrendered to a group of anarchists - this is what it all boils down to. This is simply not done unless there is some hidden agenda - Unless someone is controlling the game - in this case from Dubai.

No matter how you look at it, what the General said is very clear; no matter what the reds do, the army will not use force and if this isn't giving card blanch to them I don't know what it is.

The other night we did see Thais fighting Thais and killing Thais. Yet the army sat back and did nothing. I think that even if a full scale battle between red and yellows or pinks erupted the army would sit it out. The army is not willing to get involved. The whole city could burn and the army might just watch. This protest could go another month if the reds don't get bored.

[hammered]

The Thai army has surrendered to a group of anarchists - this is what it all boils down to. This is simply not done unless there is some hidden agenda - Unless someone is controlling the game - in this case from Dubai.

No matter how you look at it, what the General said is very clear; no matter what the reds do, the army will not use force and if this isn't giving card blanch to them I don't know what it is.

If that is true then following form the reds would have stuck to their demand of immediate disolution and had a giant party. Instead you had a more somber scene with red leaders offering a new demand and quite noticeably as they spoke one on which there were different takes and feelings. Veera was quite mild and Weng was quite extreme and Charan mentioned more months than any of the others.

This is about closed door smoke filled room things that we dont see

Anupong has opened a door for negotaitions but negotiations that leave the military holding a lot of cards. The military couldnt give a toss about who is in government as long as nobody messes with their reshuffle and nobody brings Thaksin back. They may well have enough cards to do that now, and they have likely ironed over the previous cracks as the one thing that will unite the military has been openly mentioned as being under attack.

There is still a lot to play out here and a lot we dont know. For example, who has Methee named and how high. That is big negotiation leverage over the power players as likely they wont know what Methee has said

Anyway complicated but the election stuff is in many ways just a diversion as before any election the deals will be done so everyone knows what the will do after it whoever wins, and whoever wins could be linked to what those with the information are willing to release

[animatic]

The 30 day to dissolution and 3 month election deal, gives a win to Thaksin.

If he can

a ) control the budget vote

b ) control the army list

This is a big win for him and a big loss for all others.

The question would then be

was Nuttawat's order that all campaigners be give free access

to all red areas without harassment a reality based concession

or another lie?

And even if what he says is really so,

will CM51 and assorted other hardcore elements follow that directive?

Edited April 24, 2010 by animatic

[longway]

^^^ and ^^^^I think the government has the right idea. Wait them out and let them unravel as time goes by, I imagine in the background the govt. have been choking off their funding and taking other measures to reduce their effectiveness and put them under pressure.

Sometimes the best course of action is no action. BTW the reds are pretty much camped out on my doorstep and I have a small business which I have been forced to close because of them, so I want things to end quickly, but to disperse them without causing huge casualties is impossible.

The constitution has to be amended before an election, all parties need to agree to a set of rules, otherwise this silly BS will go on and on.

Edited April 24, 2010 by longway

[Neurath]

Most analysis on here picks the bits people want to back their chosen horse.

Important things from the last few days:

Methee's confession. No way was he going to take it all on his own shoulders and naming the black shirts and naming who gave the shoot order and naming who supllied the weapons

Anupong saying: no clearance, attempt to ovverthrow key institutions, will protect monarchy, wont let thais kill each other

Military saying 400 armed red shirts

Sanan and Abhisit resolving the Sanan as PTP PM stuff

If true rumours of Thaksin being very ill (may or may not be true this one)

Vidoes indicating grenades fired from red lines and possibly a VOA reporter who states reds fired RPGs reported on FM100.5

Analyse this and work out why the red leadership are offering suddenly a 3-5 month election timeframe depending on what leader you listen to. Note this is a negotiating position and wont be the final agreed timeline

Note also that whatever romatic notions people want to believe there are some pretty powerful characters ouit on a limb here and they wont want to even have what they did stated publically so it isnt what the red leadership say it will all be carved up behind closed dorrs and the rumours are these big ones are trying for a September election whether before or after the reshuffle who knows and that will likely depend on how people see the elction going which will be affected big time by the stuff listed above

Apart form Abhisit and the reds and the military and the red side elite the PAD, the multicoloureds and the coalition allies also need to buy into any deal, which complicates matters

Nice and succinct and pretty much covers the bases. Thanks.

[pimay11]

The Thai army has surrendered to a group of anarchists - this is what it all boils down to. This is simply not done unless there is some hidden agenda - Unless someone is controlling the game - in this case from Dubai.

No matter how you look at it, what the General said is very clear; no matter what the reds do, the army will not use force and if this isn't giving card blanch to them I don't know what it is.

The other night we did see Thais fighting Thais and killing Thais. Yet the army sat back and did nothing. I think that even if a full scale battle between red and yellows or pinks erupted the army would sit it out. The army is not willing to get involved. The whole city could burn and the army might just watch. This protest could go another month if the reds don't get bored.

Another way to put it is this protest could go on another month if Mr. T's money doesn't dry up.