Worsening Crisis Pushes Thailand Towards Anarchy

[brahmburgers]

Does anyone have any ideas why the report about the trajectory of the grenades at Sala Daeng is top secret? Suthep said soon after the event that they were fired from behind the Rama 4 statue near the gates of Lumpini Park. If the report substantiated this claim, why would there be a need to keep it 'top secret'? Unless it showed that they were not fired from there... I think we should be told

Reason: Ms Porntip and other authorities are familiar with how Thai rowdies think. They know that by publishing info that might implicate a violence-prone side in punishable offenses - could yield harmful repercussions. In other words, Reds (and no-colors) who see proof that the grenades were launched from within their ranks may well go out to harm the messengers.

Thaksin himself did that sort of thing: Whenever a report (from Amnesty Int'l or others) came out which cast Thailand in a bad light, T would immediately cast aspersions at the source of the report. He would never ever admit any mistakes, for him or people close to him. The Reds, who are a direct offshoot of T, think the same way. That's why the writer of the open Letter to Weng (this morning) was so careful in what he wrote, and admitted he was unsure whether to write the letter at all - because, as he said, he was concerned the Reds might harm him, his family and his property - if he said anything that might offend them.

The same Reds who, for months, have not allowed Abhisit or his close aides to travel and speak in some parts of Thailand. So much for the 'democracy' and 'peaceful rallies' they talk about.

No wonder the Reds are dropping their red shirts, they're realizing their cause is sinking. Actually the real reason is they want to blend back and avoid responsibilities for their harmful actions. Wait a moment 'avoid responsibilities' (?) ....do Thais do such a thing? Pardon me for insinuating.

[stevotoo]

Does anyone have any ideas why the report about the trajectory of the grenades at Sala Daeng is top secret? Suthep said soon after the event that they were fired from behind the Rama 4 statue near the gates of Lumpini Park. If the report substantiated this claim, why would there be a need to keep it 'top secret'? Unless it showed that they were not fired from there... I think we should be told

Reason: Ms Porntip and other authorities are familiar with how Thai rowdies think. They know that by publishing info that might implicate a violence-prone side in punishable offenses - could yield harmful repercussions. In other words, Reds (and no-colors) who see proof that the grenades were launched from within their ranks may well go out to harm the messengers.

Thaksin himself did that sort of thing: Whenever a report (from Amnesty Int'l or others) came out which cast Thailand in a bad light, T would immediately cast aspersions at the source of the report. He would never ever admit any mistakes, for him or people close to him. The Reds, who are a direct offshoot of T, think the same way. That's why the writer of the open Letter to Weng (this morning) was so careful in what he wrote, and admitted he was unsure whether to write the letter at all - because, as he said, he was concerned the Reds might harm him, his family and his property - if he said anything that might offend them.

The same Reds who, for months, have not allowed Abhisit or his close aides to travel and speak in some parts of Thailand. So much for the 'democracy' and 'peaceful rallies' they talk about.

No wonder the Reds are dropping their red shirts, they're realizing their cause is sinking. Actually the real reason is they want to blend back and avoid responsibilities for their harmful actions. Wait a moment 'avoid responsibilities' (?) ....do Thais do such a thing? Pardon me for insinuating.

If they announced that the evidence proved that they were fired from the red shirt encampment, the protesters would be shown to be involved in acts of violence and they would lose a lot of popular support- this is exactly what the government has been trying to do all along.

[brahmburgers]

Does anyone have any ideas why the report about the trajectory of the grenades at Sala Daeng is top secret? Suthep said soon after the event that they were fired from behind the Rama 4 statue near the gates of Lumpini Park. If the report substantiated this claim, why would there be a need to keep it 'top secret'? Unless it showed that they were not fired from there... I think we should be told

Reason: Ms Porntip and other authorities are familiar with how Thai rowdies think. They know that by publishing info that might implicate a violence-prone side in punishable offenses - could yield harmful repercussions. In other words, Reds (and no-colors) who see proof that the grenades were launched from within their ranks may well go out to harm the messengers.

Thaksin himself did that sort of thing: Whenever a report (from Amnesty Int'l or others) came out which cast Thailand in a bad light, T would immediately cast aspersions at the source of the report. He would never ever admit any mistakes, for him or people close to him. The Reds, who are a direct offshoot of T, think the same way. That's why the writer of the open Letter to Weng (this morning) was so careful in what he wrote, and admitted he was unsure whether to write the letter at all - because, as he said, he was concerned the Reds might harm him, his family and his property - if he said anything that might offend them.

The same Reds who, for months, have not allowed Abhisit or his close aides to travel and speak in some parts of Thailand. So much for the 'democracy' and 'peaceful rallies' they talk about.

No wonder the Reds are dropping their red shirts, they're realizing their cause is sinking. Actually the real reason is they want to blend back and avoid responsibilities for their harmful actions. Wait a moment 'avoid responsibilities' (?) ....do Thais do such a thing? Pardon me for insinuating.

If they announced that the evidence proved that they were fired from the red shirt encampment, the protesters would be shown to be involved in acts of violence and they would lose a lot of popular support- this is exactly what the government has been trying to do all along.

If the government 'has been trying to get them to lose popular support' (as you say), then why would the gov't withhold key info that implicates the Reds in murder?

You're missing the point entirely. The reason the report isn't being published at this time, is the people who wrote the report don't want to be targeted and harmed. Plus, the gov't has strategies that we T.Visaites don't know about. They're probably gathering evidence to bust and jail the perpetrators. If the weapons firers knew all that the gov't knows, then they would flee and hide faster than they're going to (later on).

[Robbie Dye]

The way this is going we will be able to start our own poll of Red fans v Yellow fans amongst farangs living here! Now there's an idea!

[brahmburgers]

From today's Nation newspaper:

Kwanchai announces red shirts to move to Thai Market in Pathum Thani

Kwanchai Praiphana, a red-shirt leader, said some 2,000 protesters would travel in about 150 pick-up trucks to the Thai Market in Pathum Thani to show moral support for the protester there.

The protesters would gather at the Lumpini park and leave at 10:30 am, he said.

He said protesters at the Thai Market would try to block troops from travelling to Bangkok to break up the rally at the Rajprasong.

If protesters encounter police checkpoints or barricades, they may try to break through with force, Kwanchai said.

The Nation

This should bring things closer to a flash point. This will be a big test for gov't security forces, to see whether they can stand up to, and defeat Kwanchai's hot heads.

[stevotoo]

If the government 'has been trying to get them to lose popular support' (as you say), then why would the gov't withhold key info that implicates the Reds in murder?

This is the point I was making- I am surprised that they don't take this opportunity if they have the evidence

You're missing the point entirely. The reason the report isn't being published at this time, is the people who wrote the report don't want to be targeted and harmed. Plus, the gov't has strategies that we T.Visaites don't know about. They're probably gathering evidence to bust and jail the perpetrators. If the weapons firers knew all that the gov't knows, then they would flee and hide faster than they're going to (later on).

I agree that the reason may be that they do not want to issue details that might predjudice a subsequent court case

[brahmburgers]

According to a news source which cannot be mentioned here, Maj Gen Khattiya (head of Reds' barricades construction) claims the thousands of tires are doused with fuel. I had assumed that they were days ago, and had openly asked several times on T.Visa whether the tire barricades were doused with fuel (no responses) - and now there's proof - if we're to believe the turncoat General's assertion.

This thickens the plot mightily. Not only does it forebode a 'Jim Jones' type mass suicide, but firing up those fuel covered tires will obviously impact severely on Bkk and its people. Message to authorities: get a bunch of fire trucks reinforced with armor and bullet proof glass. Post them nearby. Don't allow any unauthorized vehicles or people within 200 meters of the barricades. Get ready to close down all public transport on a moment's notice.

[bkkjames]

According to a news source which cannot be mentioned here, Maj Gen Khattiya (head of Reds' barricades construction) claims the thousands of tires are doused with fuel. I had assumed that they were days ago, and had openly asked several times on T.Visa whether the tire barricades were doused with fuel (no responses) - and now there's proof - if we're to believe the turncoat General's assertion.

This thickens the plot mightily. Not only does it forebode a 'Jim Jones' type mass suicide, but firing up those fuel covered tires will obviously impact severely on Bkk and its people. Message to authorities: get a bunch of fire trucks reinforced with armor and bullet proof glass. Post them nearby. Don't allow any unauthorized vehicles or people within 200 meters of the barricades. Get ready to close down all public transport on a moment's notice.

If was in the Red camp I would be more worried about that black material they use to shelter themselves from the sun. Seems to me that it isn't made of flame retarded material.

[slapout]

I am sure many farmers everywhere would like to say take this job and shove it. They should all quit farming and then they can easily become computer programmers or open their own designer clothing store. What a ridiculous statement this is. People who are farmers whether in Thailand or anywhere are generally born and raised this way. They inherit the land from parents and every generation farms the land. it is not an easy life and I have done it and I will admit it is not something I would want to do my whole life and I respect the people that do it and so should anyone who eats the food they grow. I myself came from family with farm but went into law enforcement partly to avoid having to work on farm every day.

Everywhere I have lived the rich people like to sit on their usually fat butts and drink martinis or whatever and look down on just about everyone else. Most would not last 15 minutes working in the fields and generally die of heart attacks whenever they have to do something strenuous like walk up the stairs. It is not hard to understand that if you work all day in the sun for peanuts you would be resentful of those merchants who do very little work yet profit the most from the farmer's labor.

Lending money to the guy to start business was a decent thing to do and is very commendable, but it is not to look down on those less fortunate.

I do not begrudge anyone success if they have worked for it, and do not even myself totally agree with my own previous ranting. Only trying to prove a point that it is not good to stereotype people, whether poor in Isaan or rich in Bangkok. Besides being farmer am also Native American so I can relate to having people say I am drunk, lazy etc. as this is the usual Indian stereotype same as the one of Isaan farmers.

I do not support any type of violent or terrorist behavior such as many of redshirts are exhibiting in Bangkok. But neither am I terribly surprised it is happening. It is just the latest local chapter of the endless struggle between the haves and the have-nots.

Farmers around the world have a common denominator, they love the land and coaxing it to grow something other than weeds. The farmers of Thailand compared to the real world have seen their land holding decrease instead of increase, thus the opportunity for any continued income growth has been curtailed. The first reason for this is Thailand is an old country and the good tillable/production land was taken generations ago, the death of each generation brought subdividing of the land for inheritance, debt payment, etc, purposes. Farming like most businesses, must grow to have a chance at survival and small farmers here, seem to be rapidly approaching the opposite avenue toward BARE substance or bankruptcy.

[brahmburgers]

"The government would do all it could to thwart the plan (of Red Shirts putting up barricades and illegal traffic stops)." PM Abhisit said yesterday.

Ok sir, you've been vacillating for weeks. The time is now.

[rabo]

BTW: At the time, few people agreed with the airport closure.

The Yellows I've met all say that they didn't agree with the airport occupation. It just doesn't make sense them saying this. In the end, they got what they wanted due to it. So the airport closure was in their favour. In public: "I don't agree with it." At home: "Hehehehe, let's show Thaksin." It's a bit like a Bolshevik saying: "I don't think we should storm the Tsar's palace."

Whenever something does not make sense, for sure it means that you don't understand it.

Pretty much the majority of people here supported the movement to remove the remaining parts of Thaksin's faction from government because of widespread voter fraud. However, when the yellow faction closed the airport, most people I know, and I myself, believed that was going to far. Especially 8 days later when the issue was resolved by the courts.

So, not hard to understand.

I think you need more than one source of information.

[hardy1943]

I feel really ashamed: I've been reading The Nation and Bangkok Post for all this time. No more. Sorry. I understand we live in a country without freedom of speech, but this is too much for me.

Amazed. Ashamed...

Take care.

Surprised? All always used them to wrap fish with. Isn't that what you supposed to do?

[LevelHead]

For those who cannot understand whats going on with the Army and Police and for those who want an opinion on the low down of who the black shirts on April 10th were, the following link might help.

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/04/27/

Perhaps reading any article about the Army...... ? Obviously I do not condone what is written on the site in various places, however it is an opinion of some poster, not me, and one based on "speaking with generals" who do not want to be named.

Might be interesting to some.

Certainly potentially enlightening.

thats one scary read. wheels within wheels!

skål

We know the army is divided and not reliable, this piece presents some insider detail. Talk of a coup is always scary so this piece is no more scary than a post to TVF that discusses a coup. The hype of 'scary' to describle the deep source story is unnecessary. The insider report only provides details concerning the fact we already know the army is divided, that Anupong wants to retire in peace (justifiably or not). Calm down.

The information appears to be very accurate as it matches in many ways what certain people of significance have told me.

[rabo]

I am sure many farmers everywhere would like to say take this job and shove it. They should all quit farming and then they can easily become computer programmers or open their own designer clothing store. What a ridiculous statement this is. People who are farmers whether in Thailand or anywhere are generally born and raised this way. They inherit the land from parents and every generation farms the land. it is not an easy life and I have done it and I will admit it is not something I would want to do my whole life and I respect the people that do it and so should anyone who eats the food they grow. I myself came from family with farm but went into law enforcement partly to avoid having to work on farm every day.

Everywhere I have lived the rich people like to sit on their usually fat butts and drink martinis or whatever and look down on just about everyone else. Most would not last 15 minutes working in the fields and generally die of heart attacks whenever they have to do something strenuous like walk up the stairs. It is not hard to understand that if you work all day in the sun for peanuts you would be resentful of those merchants who do very little work yet profit the most from the farmer's labor.

Lending money to the guy to start business was a decent thing to do and is very commendable, but it is not to look down on those less fortunate.

I do not begrudge anyone success if they have worked for it, and do not even myself totally agree with my own previous ranting. Only trying to prove a point that it is not good to stereotype people, whether poor in Isaan or rich in Bangkok. Besides being farmer am also Native American so I can relate to having people say I am drunk, lazy etc. as this is the usual Indian stereotype same as the one of Isaan farmers.

I do not support any type of violent or terrorist behavior such as many of redshirts are exhibiting in Bangkok. But neither am I terribly surprised it is happening. It is just the latest local chapter of the endless struggle between the haves and the have-nots.

Farmers around the world have a common denominator, they love the land and coaxing it to grow something other than weeds. The farmers of Thailand compared to the real world have seen their land holding decrease instead of increase, thus the opportunity for any continued income growth has been curtailed. The first reason for this is Thailand is an old country and the good tillable/production land was taken generations ago, the death of each generation brought subdividing of the land for inheritance, debt payment, etc, purposes. Farming like most businesses, must grow to have a chance at survival and small farmers here, seem to be rapidly approaching the opposite avenue toward BARE substance or bankruptcy.

Yes, and here is a real example of how the "elites" whoever they are, have worsened the plight of the rural people. I've had the chance to talk to some of the big agriculture business families and they will tell me of their programs to help the rural people, in one way or another, by taking ownership of the land bit by bit. The end result is the rural people become a paid work force that can no longer rely on their own piece of land as a financial backbone. Although this is a big problem in Thailand, the problem is a global one.

I personally have "rescued" 3 pieces of family land (big family) all be it 2 from the banks and 1 from the local pawn broker.

Edited April 28, 2010 by rabo

[OzMick]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a “conspiracy theory.” Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the “allegedly photoshopped” pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation “expert” agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true. To support this theory, consider this. T is writing a lot of cheques that he would have trouble cashing. Contributors to the UDD fund are being promised B100,000 when he is re-instated, and there are many, many thousands according to the redneck leadership. Reports are also coming in of a wage freeze at the rally site, payment in full on a successful outcome. If he reneges on these payments, his popularity rating would be lower than the Gestapo’s in Israel.

What does a dying man care for popularity? What does he care for Wealth, his family is well provided for? What use is Power to a dead man. What does a dying man want except not to die? Maybe to make atonement for past sins, or to perform good deeds to improve his standing with his god. Does either of those fit with his character?

Remember, this man is superstitious like the Pope is a catholic. A scant few years ago, he thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. When he was caught out, the court refused to convict him, so his scams became more and more outrageous. He was moving the Thai court system, and the military, under his control. Soon, he would be unstoppable.

Then came the summons to head office, followed by a resignation, withdrawn after a week. But it was too late, his bad luck run had started, and continues unabated. He loses Face, Power, Wealth, Status and finally his Health. Does he blame himself for his excesses, for going too far? In a pig’s eye! The blame goes back to where the bad luck started.

I believe that the dying man’s wish is for Revenge against those who caused his downfall. He wants to destroy the country that he can’t return to. He has the money and the Isaan political machine to achieve what he wants, all he needs is the right motivation for the masses to carry out his will.

Initially, for the herd, it was money, but his leaders have changed that to the current smoke-screen of “democracy, equal opportunity, blah, blah, blah.” The leaders have been equally duped. They believe it is a power grab coupled with a big cash sweetener, money and power the ultimate temptation. They egg Abhisit on to attack – “if you can’t clear us out you must resign” - hoping for a bloodbath and with enough armed men to assure they get one. From the funeral pyre, the Phoenix is re-born.

What happens when they realize the real aim, that Thaksin is not coming back to rule because he is dying, and that they are not going to be rich and powerful as promised? The first thing I’d do is seek an amnesty, because without one they are going to end up behind walls for a long time, if not in front of one for the short rest of their lives (I was tempted to say “short time” but refrained). What can they do if an amnesty is refused? Carry on and hope for the best, and/or bolt for the nearest border. We will have to wait and see.

[iforget]

"The government would do all it could to thwart the plan (of Red Shirts putting up barricades and illegal traffic stops)." PM Abhisit said yesterday.

Ok sir, you've been vacillating for weeks. The time is now.

Seems to me that the side that's first to make an overt violent move loses. I say "overt" because there's been quite a lot of covert violence already. Yes, I know - Phan Fa Bridge but it's by no means clear who started that off, and both sides used violence - and both have since backed away from that kind of confrontation.

If the NorBorChor attack the military in force, they lose the legitimacy they've so far managed to preserve (just) of "peaceful people protesting loudly and irritatingly". They would lose a load of support, even among their own supporters. If Abhisit follows your advice, he's doomed to be lumped in with Suchinda, and will certainly have a great deal of trouble getting reelected - if he doesn't have to go into exile.

It's a waiting game - a game of chicken, in reverse, if you like. So far, in my book, Abhisit's played it right, despite what must be enormous pressure, especially from the big store owners who have lost about 15% of their big fat profits, and from the Pantamit, with their superior attitude and their thuggish approach to politics.

What you (and Pantamit et al) are advocating is slaughter. Massive casualties. Death on a huge scale. And yes, there are those on the red side who advocate the same. But do you think that's good? You think killing people - creating hundreds of martyrs to the cause - solves anything?

Edited April 28, 2010 by iforget

[LevelHead]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a “conspiracy theory.” Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the “allegedly photoshopped” pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation “expert” agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true. To support this theory, consider this. T is writing a lot of cheques that he would have trouble cashing. Contributors to the UDD fund are being promised B100,000 when he is re-instated, and there are many, many thousands according to the redneck leadership. Reports are also coming in of a wage freeze at the rally site, payment in full on a successful outcome. If he reneges on these payments, his popularity rating would be lower than the Gestapo’s in Israel.

What does a dying man care for popularity? What does he care for Wealth, his family is well provided for? What use is Power to a dead man. What does a dying man want except not to die? Maybe to make atonement for past sins, or to perform good deeds to improve his standing with his god. Does either of those fit with his character?

Remember, this man is superstitious like the Pope is a catholic. A scant few years ago, he thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. When he was caught out, the court refused to convict him, so his scams became more and more outrageous. He was moving the Thai court system, and the military, under his control. Soon, he would be unstoppable.

Then came the summons to head office, followed by a resignation, withdrawn after a week. But it was too late, his bad luck run had started, and continues unabated. He loses Face, Power, Wealth, Status and finally his Health. Does he blame himself for his excesses, for going too far? In a pig’s eye! The blame goes back to where the bad luck started.

I believe that the dying man’s wish is for Revenge against those who caused his downfall. He wants to destroy the country that he can’t return to. He has the money and the Isaan political machine to achieve what he wants, all he needs is the right motivation for the masses to carry out his will.

Initially, for the herd, it was money, but his leaders have changed that to the current smoke-screen of “democracy, equal opportunity, blah, blah, blah.” The leaders have been equally duped. They believe it is a power grab coupled with a big cash sweetener, money and power the ultimate temptation. They egg Abhisit on to attack – “if you can’t clear us out you must resign” - hoping for a bloodbath and with enough armed men to assure they get one. From the funeral pyre, the Phoenix is re-born.

What happens when they realize the real aim, that Thaksin is not coming back to rule because he is dying, and that they are not going to be rich and powerful as promised? The first thing I’d do is seek an amnesty, because without one they are going to end up behind walls for a long time, if not in front of one for the short rest of their lives (I was tempted to say “short time” but refrained). What can they do if an amnesty is refused? Carry on and hope for the best, and/or bolt for the nearest border. We will have to wait and see.

Why do you continue to lie to yourself that Thaksin is wanting to come back to rule ?

Perhaps that is why you cannot understand why tens of thousands of reds are demonstrating in Bangkok and country wide millions of people quietly support them. If you must keep deluding yourself its all about Thaksin then you will forever be posting nonsense like the above.

[Jerrytheyoung]

I am sure many farmers everywhere would like to say take this job and shove it. They should all quit farming and then they can easily become computer programmers or open their own designer clothing store. What a ridiculous statement this is. People who are farmers whether in Thailand or anywhere are generally born and raised this way. They inherit the land from parents and every generation farms the land. it is not an easy life and I have done it and I will admit it is not something I would want to do my whole life and I respect the people that do it and so should anyone who eats the food they grow. I myself came from family with farm but went into law enforcement partly to avoid having to work on farm every day.

Everywhere I have lived the rich people like to sit on their usually fat butts and drink martinis or whatever and look down on just about everyone else. Most would not last 15 minutes working in the fields and generally die of heart attacks whenever they have to do something strenuous like walk up the stairs. It is not hard to understand that if you work all day in the sun for peanuts you would be resentful of those merchants who do very little work yet profit the most from the farmer's labor.

Lending money to the guy to start business was a decent thing to do and is very commendable, but it is not to look down on those less fortunate.

I do not begrudge anyone success if they have worked for it, and do not even myself totally agree with my own previous ranting. Only trying to prove a point that it is not good to stereotype people, whether poor in Isaan or rich in Bangkok. Besides being farmer am also Native American so I can relate to having people say I am drunk, lazy etc. as this is the usual Indian stereotype same as the one of Isaan farmers.

I do not support any type of violent or terrorist behavior such as many of redshirts are exhibiting in Bangkok. But neither am I terribly surprised it is happening. It is just the latest local chapter of the endless struggle between the haves and the have-nots.

Farmers around the world have a common denominator, they love the land and coaxing it to grow something other than weeds. The farmers of Thailand compared to the real world have seen their land holding decrease instead of increase, thus the opportunity for any continued income growth has been curtailed. The first reason for this is Thailand is an old country and the good tillable/production land was taken generations ago, the death of each generation brought subdividing of the land for inheritance, debt payment, etc, purposes. Farming like most businesses, must grow to have a chance at survival and small farmers here, seem to be rapidly approaching the opposite avenue toward BARE substance or bankruptcy.

Yes, and here is a real example of how the "elites" whoever they are, have worsened the plight of the rural people. I've had the chance to talk to some of the big agriculture business families and they will tell me of their programs to help the rural people, in one way or another, by taking ownership of the land bit by bit. The end result is the rural people become a paid work force that can no longer rely on their own piece of land as a financial backbone. Although this is a big problem in Thailand, the problem is a global one.

I personally have "rescued" 3 pieces of family land (big family) all be it 2 from the banks and 1 from the local pawn broker.

I agree with you. however as I have already posted several times, one solution is a "Town and Country planning" as we have done in France since the 1950's. Taking into account that only big businesses may survive it is a policy for regrouping the farmers and simultaneously decentralisation of Industries whatever is possible with a positive policy concerning the infrastructures (Railways, highways, domestic Airlines, irrigation...). trying to stabilise the population in its rural environment.

This is accompanied by financial measures (subsidising the products until the modernisation is achieved, Funds for natural calamity, loans for equipment with no interests, even in france a specific Bank has been created: the "Credit Agricole"....

In the same time an administrative and political decentralisation, local budget, elected Governors, local Assemblies...

in the beginning of the 50's around half of the French population was farming with small surfaces, today only 5%. It is not rare to get some farms working on 400 hectares (1000 acres)with only 2 or 3 men (and an heavy machinery). I do know that USA farms are even far more bigger. But what I want to enlight is the process which can be adapted to Thailand....

[rabo]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a "conspiracy theory." Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the "allegedly photoshopped" pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation "expert" agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true.

While, I don't discount the logic of your theory as a pure theory, after a quick look, I don't get the feeling the images are "obvious fakes".

Do you or anyone else have a reference to the analysis and arguments that the images are faked? I would like to see what they say.

Edited April 28, 2010 by rabo

[OzMick]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a "conspiracy theory." Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the "allegedly photoshopped" pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation "expert" agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true. To support this theory, consider this. T is writing a lot of cheques that he would have trouble cashing. Contributors to the UDD fund are being promised B100,000 when he is re-instated, and there are many, many thousands according to the redneck leadership. Reports are also coming in of a wage freeze at the rally site, payment in full on a successful outcome. If he reneges on these payments, his popularity rating would be lower than the Gestapo's in Israel.

What does a dying man care for popularity? What does he care for Wealth, his family is well provided for? What use is Power to a dead man. What does a dying man want except not to die? Maybe to make atonement for past sins, or to perform good deeds to improve his standing with his god. Does either of those fit with his character?

Remember, this man is superstitious like the Pope is a catholic. A scant few years ago, he thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. When he was caught out, the court refused to convict him, so his scams became more and more outrageous. He was moving the Thai court system, and the military, under his control. Soon, he would be unstoppable.

Then came the summons to head office, followed by a resignation, withdrawn after a week. But it was too late, his bad luck run had started, and continues unabated. He loses Face, Power, Wealth, Status and finally his Health. Does he blame himself for his excesses, for going too far? In a pig's eye! The blame goes back to where the bad luck started.

I believe that the dying man's wish is for Revenge against those who caused his downfall. He wants to destroy the country that he can't return to. He has the money and the Isaan political machine to achieve what he wants, all he needs is the right motivation for the masses to carry out his will.

Initially, for the herd, it was money, but his leaders have changed that to the current smoke-screen of "democracy, equal opportunity, blah, blah, blah." The leaders have been equally duped. They believe it is a power grab coupled with a big cash sweetener, money and power the ultimate temptation. They egg Abhisit on to attack – "if you can't clear us out you must resign" - hoping for a bloodbath and with enough armed men to assure they get one. From the funeral pyre, the Phoenix is re-born.

What happens when they realize the real aim, that Thaksin is not coming back to rule because he is dying, and that they are not going to be rich and powerful as promised? The first thing I'd do is seek an amnesty, because without one they are going to end up behind walls for a long time, if not in front of one for the short rest of their lives (I was tempted to say "short time" but refrained). What can they do if an amnesty is refused? Carry on and hope for the best, and/or bolt for the nearest border. We will have to wait and see.

Why do you continue to lie to yourself that Thaksin is wanting to come back to rule ?

Perhaps that is why you cannot understand why tens of thousands of reds are demonstrating in Bangkok and country wide millions of people quietly support them. If you must keep deluding yourself its all about Thaksin then you will forever be posting nonsense like the above.

I have put a bold section in my original post to aid your diminutive reading and comprehension skills. Try starting from the top - it is OPINION and a CONSPIRACY THEORY.

[bangkoklight]

BTW: At the time, few people agreed with the airport closure.

The Yellows I've met all say that they didn't agree with the airport occupation. It just doesn't make sense them saying this. In the end, they got what they wanted due to it. So the airport closure was in their favour. In public: "I don't agree with it." At home: "Hehehehe, let's show Thaksin." It's a bit like a Bolshevik saying: "I don't think we should storm the Tsar's palace."

Whenever something does not make sense, for sure it means that you don't understand it.

Pretty much the majority of people here supported the movement to remove the remaining parts of Thaksin's faction from government because of widespread voter fraud. However, when the yellow faction closed the airport, most people I know, and I myself, believed that was going to far. Especially 8 days later when the issue was resolved by the courts.

So, not hard to understand.

I think you need more than one source of information.

Are you agreeing with me that many Yellows say they didn't agree with the airport occupation, but in fact it got the Yellow movement what they wanted. Can one, in retrospection, say that they didn't agree with a protest which brought them victory?

And I don't understand this comment rabo "I think you need more than one source of information." Why do you think I have only one source of information? How is that implied in my previous post?

[LevelHead]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a "conspiracy theory." Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the "allegedly photoshopped" pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation "expert" agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true. To support this theory, consider this. T is writing a lot of cheques that he would have trouble cashing. Contributors to the UDD fund are being promised B100,000 when he is re-instated, and there are many, many thousands according to the redneck leadership. Reports are also coming in of a wage freeze at the rally site, payment in full on a successful outcome. If he reneges on these payments, his popularity rating would be lower than the Gestapo's in Israel.

What does a dying man care for popularity? What does he care for Wealth, his family is well provided for? What use is Power to a dead man. What does a dying man want except not to die? Maybe to make atonement for past sins, or to perform good deeds to improve his standing with his god. Does either of those fit with his character?

Remember, this man is superstitious like the Pope is a catholic. A scant few years ago, he thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. When he was caught out, the court refused to convict him, so his scams became more and more outrageous. He was moving the Thai court system, and the military, under his control. Soon, he would be unstoppable.

Then came the summons to head office, followed by a resignation, withdrawn after a week. But it was too late, his bad luck run had started, and continues unabated. He loses Face, Power, Wealth, Status and finally his Health. Does he blame himself for his excesses, for going too far? In a pig's eye! The blame goes back to where the bad luck started.

I believe that the dying man's wish is for Revenge against those who caused his downfall. He wants to destroy the country that he can't return to. He has the money and the Isaan political machine to achieve what he wants, all he needs is the right motivation for the masses to carry out his will.

Initially, for the herd, it was money, but his leaders have changed that to the current smoke-screen of "democracy, equal opportunity, blah, blah, blah." The leaders have been equally duped. They believe it is a power grab coupled with a big cash sweetener, money and power the ultimate temptation. They egg Abhisit on to attack – "if you can't clear us out you must resign" - hoping for a bloodbath and with enough armed men to assure they get one. From the funeral pyre, the Phoenix is re-born.

What happens when they realize the real aim, that Thaksin is not coming back to rule because he is dying, and that they are not going to be rich and powerful as promised? The first thing I'd do is seek an amnesty, because without one they are going to end up behind walls for a long time, if not in front of one for the short rest of their lives (I was tempted to say "short time" but refrained). What can they do if an amnesty is refused? Carry on and hope for the best, and/or bolt for the nearest border. We will have to wait and see.

Why do you continue to lie to yourself that Thaksin is wanting to come back to rule ?

Perhaps that is why you cannot understand why tens of thousands of reds are demonstrating in Bangkok and country wide millions of people quietly support them. If you must keep deluding yourself its all about Thaksin then you will forever be posting nonsense like the above.

I have put a bold section in my original post to aid your diminutive reading and comprehension skills. Try starting from the top - it is OPINION and a CONSPIRACY THEORY.

Yes, but your implication is that Thaksin is coming back and then people will know he is dead/dying/last week/next week/already whatever and this will be some surprise to them that he is not coming back.

Therefore you base your whole theory on the delusions and lies about Thaksin.

[Jerrytheyoung]

"The government would do all it could to thwart the plan (of Red Shirts putting up barricades and illegal traffic stops)." PM Abhisit said yesterday.

Ok sir, you've been vacillating for weeks. The time is now.

Seems to me that the side that's first to make an overt violent move loses. I say "overt" because there's been quite a lot of covert violence already. Yes, I know - Phan Fa Bridge but it's by no means clear who started that off, and both sides used violence - and both have since backed away from that kind of confrontation.

If the NorBorChor attack the military in force, they lose the legitimacy they've so far managed to preserve (just) of "peaceful people protesting loudly and irritatingly". They would lose a load of support, even among their own supporters. If Abhisit follows your advice, he's doomed to be lumped in with Suchinda, and will certainly have a great deal of trouble getting reelected - if he doesn't have to go into exile.

It's a waiting game - a game of chicken, in reverse, if you like. So far, in my book, Abhisit's played it right, despite what must be enormous pressure, especially from the big store owners who have lost about 15% of their big fat profits, and from the Pantamit, with their superior attitude and their thuggish approach to politics.

What you (and Pantamit et al) are advocating is slaughter. Massive casualties. Death on a huge scale. And yes, there are those on the red side who advocate the same. But do you think that's good? You think killing people - creating hundreds of martyrs to the cause - solves anything?

The Falcons are on the up side today. Instead to applaud, some people should play Chess in order to learn that you have to anticipate the answers of your competitors and this 2 or 3 times ahead.and to measure the consequences of each move.

Provocation by Suthep on Chavalit today....It seems a small thing but in fact it is a major provocation; a major move on the chess board as it pushes the moderate leader to defensive and destroys possibilities of dialog in the short term.

Diversion of Kwanchai, testing the Forces on the other side... anything may happen from this testing skirmish

Anupong is very quiet because he knows that the situation may get out of hand and become fully uncontrollable; uncertainty about his troops, he must worry a lot...

The British Foreign affairs have well analysed the situation; potentiality very high of a sudden arson to all the Country.

[bangkoklight]

All conspiracy theories are created to distract people from the real issues. In the US, they have the UFO / Area 51 conspiracy - a great distraction for inquisitive minds to steer them away from the CIA's real agenda of national security. I must also add that this UFO conspiracy is good for the economy.

These photos of Thaksin have achieved the desired effect of distracting us - both Reds and Yellows. Further talk on this matter is therefore futile as the photos represent nothing.

[dhrobertson]

In answer to the selfish who forget from where they are coming.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TO MY FRIENDS I hear this cry coming from the bowels of the Thai country people, this long cry asking for more justice. Who can remain insensible to the pain of the millions of men, women and children you represent? Your lives are rooted to this beautiful Country of which you are the gardeners. Generation after generation, you have been shaping the landscape, without you it will be an impenetrable jungle. Long days spent farming this rice, in the heavy rain, in the heavy sun, and when coming the dark, so exhausted that you have only one aim: to rest for working again tomorrow. You have gotten no time to take care of yourself: your wooden houses are nearly the same that those of your grand fathers' ones and generations before. Modernity is slightly visible through a TV set, a tap water in your garden....few details: it is your life and you can be proud than during Centuries you have feed the whole Country, particularly your fellow town people.

During this time your fellow town people have worked hard also, building factories, making business and they have succeeded: day after day they are accumulating wealth. Today they have nice modern houses, nice cars and all the modern comfort going with. Today they are more and more busy for accelerating the accumulation of wealth. Today they have big projects in which they are going to invest billions and billions. They are so occupied that they have forgotten you have feed them during Centuries. They cannot disturb their activities and give you a small part of their wealth because they need it for their grandiose projects. The Cities are buzzing like beehives: the noise is so important that they cannot hear you: they are deaf to your long pain cry.

Red Shirt people you are entering in Humanity History, I wish the coming days to be Peaceful, I know you love Peace ... Jerry

a bit poetic, ok, but what's the point? Yes, there is stratification among people in Thailand and in nearly every other country, except maybe Monaco and Lichtenstein.

Some of the most content people I know are at the bottom rungs of the ladder, and some of the most unhappy people I know are at the top. Thailand actually has rather good opportunity for bettering one's income - more opp than many other places. If a tomato farmer wants to make a great tomato sauce to sell to increase the value of his toils, then she can do that. A big limiting factor in Thailand is the preponderance of everyone sticking with what their peers are doing, with few stepping off to try new innovative things. Ten years ago I published a list of 100 products which can't be found in Thailand - all of them useful and unique. Today only about 3 of those items have been introduced to the marketplace here.

Thais are a product of their school system and culture which tells them to think alike and not venture to try new things. If I was governer of an Issan province, I would have community meetings often - to encourage discussion of innovative products, services and marketing strategies.

Issanites and others need to empower themselves to better their lives. Think outside the box. Get away from thinking that Thaksin's return is the only answer for them getting more money. Plus farming is a good profession, though growing rice in drought-stricken regions isn't smart, but that's another topic.

I could not agree more.

Getting Thai people to "think outside the box" is extremely difficult because of the teaching in schools. Pupils are sometimes beaten just for asking questions!

I used to be in high volume electronics manufacturing and I can tell you that Thai workers tend to be good at repetative tasks, but, if there is a problem, it often is a Farang or Japanese engineer that has to get everything going again! High volume manufacturing is a Thai strength: consistancy and quality are good and labour rates low. BUT NOT THE LOWEST. It is interesting that hard disk drive manufacturing is mainly done here.

The farming system needs looking at. If you go for bigger farms and more mechanisation then rewards for a few farmers will be high. But what about the rest? Do you want a major migration from the land to the cities? It's pointless just saying pay the small subsistance farmers more unless you want communism.

The French chap who explained what happened in France in the 50's had some great ideas.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Seagate is mulling relocating to China, Western Digital to Malaysia. These are all rumours of course, but only a couple of months after similar rumours from Sony started popping up from the same sources, Sony announced they are moving to Malaysia.

Investors do not like risks and uncertainty. It is the interests of ALL thais to solve in depth the issue of the Northern population. A crackdown will bring -at the best- only a temporary solution, because sooner or later the Thai 2 speed development consequences will re-surface. bangkokians have to invest in Northern Thailand: it is their well understood interest

Investors will avoid Thailand until they have a certainty of stability.

[shawndoc]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a "conspiracy theory." Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the "allegedly photoshopped" pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation "expert" agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true.

While, I don't discount the logic of your theory as a pure theory, after a quick look, I don't get the feeling the images are "obvious fakes".

Do you or anyone else have a reference to the analysis and arguments that the images are faked? I would like to see what they say.

I don't have anything about the photos, but if you want to build support for a conspiracy theory there is this:

http://www.boringdays.net/reused-thaksin-s...pril-2010-clip/

Its in Thai. Gist of it is that the video that aired of Thaksin from this weekend appears to be months old footage. Actual weather doesn't match what is seen in the video, and Thaksin is wearing an identicle suit, tie, and lapel pin as the trip when he got his Montenegrin citizenship.

[OzMick]

I have been thinking, which is usually dangerous, and have come up with a "conspiracy theory." Quite prepared to admit it is a theory only with little supporting evidence, and retract if any hard fact destroys the chain of logic.

What got me started was the "allegedly photoshopped" pictures of Thaksin. Some of them are suspect enough to cast some credibility of the allegations, and at least one Nation "expert" agrees. If they are doctored, someone has gone to considerable expense and trouble to create the illusion.

This raises the question WHY? Is T seriously ill, perhaps even dying. It may be wishful thinking, but I believe the latter to be true. To support this theory, consider this. T is writing a lot of cheques that he would have trouble cashing. Contributors to the UDD fund are being promised B100,000 when he is re-instated, and there are many, many thousands according to the redneck leadership. Reports are also coming in of a wage freeze at the rally site, payment in full on a successful outcome. If he reneges on these payments, his popularity rating would be lower than the Gestapo's in Israel.

What does a dying man care for popularity? What does he care for Wealth, his family is well provided for? What use is Power to a dead man. What does a dying man want except not to die? Maybe to make atonement for past sins, or to perform good deeds to improve his standing with his god. Does either of those fit with his character?

Remember, this man is superstitious like the Pope is a catholic. A scant few years ago, he thought he was the best thing since sliced bread. When he was caught out, the court refused to convict him, so his scams became more and more outrageous. He was moving the Thai court system, and the military, under his control. Soon, he would be unstoppable.

Then came the summons to head office, followed by a resignation, withdrawn after a week. But it was too late, his bad luck run had started, and continues unabated. He loses Face, Power, Wealth, Status and finally his Health. Does he blame himself for his excesses, for going too far? In a pig's eye! The blame goes back to where the bad luck started.

I believe that the dying man's wish is for Revenge against those who caused his downfall. He wants to destroy the country that he can't return to. He has the money and the Isaan political machine to achieve what he wants, all he needs is the right motivation for the masses to carry out his will.

Initially, for the herd, it was money, but his leaders have changed that to the current smoke-screen of "democracy, equal opportunity, blah, blah, blah." The leaders have been equally duped. They believe it is a power grab coupled with a big cash sweetener, money and power the ultimate temptation. They egg Abhisit on to attack – "if you can't clear us out you must resign" - hoping for a bloodbath and with enough armed men to assure they get one. From the funeral pyre, the Phoenix is re-born.

What happens when they realize the real aim, that Thaksin is not coming back to rule because he is dying, and that they are not going to be rich and powerful as promised? The first thing I'd do is seek an amnesty, because without one they are going to end up behind walls for a long time, if not in front of one for the short rest of their lives (I was tempted to say "short time" but refrained). What can they do if an amnesty is refused? Carry on and hope for the best, and/or bolt for the nearest border. We will have to wait and see.

Why do you continue to lie to yourself that Thaksin is wanting to come back to rule ?

Perhaps that is why you cannot understand why tens of thousands of reds are demonstrating in Bangkok and country wide millions of people quietly support them. If you must keep deluding yourself its all about Thaksin then you will forever be posting nonsense like the above.

I have put a bold section in my original post to aid your diminutive reading and comprehension skills. Try starting from the top - it is OPINION and a CONSPIRACY THEORY.

Yes, but your implication is that Thaksin is coming back and then people will know he is dead/dying/last week/next week/already whatever and this will be some surprise to them that he is not coming back.

Therefore you base your whole theory on the delusions and lies about Thaksin.

I will try to express my thought in words of 1 syllable or less"

T is not coming back

He is very sick

He thinks he got shaf-ted

He wants to get even.

He has fooled the kwai

He has fooled the big kwai on stage

Now they know, they know they are in deep poo.

See spot run...........................

Or can I be more generous and say that what I think I wrote is not what you think you read.

[bangkoklight]

Investors do not like risks and uncertainty. It is the interests of ALL thais to solve in depth the issue of the Northern population. A crackdown will bring -at the best- only a temporary solution, because sooner or later the Thai 2 speed development consequences will re-surface. bangkokians have to invest in Northern Thailand: it is their well understood interest.

Investors will avoid Thailand until they have a certainty of stability.

A very interesting point Jerry. The two-speed development of Thailand is a major factor in this current crisis. Poor farmers and their children have to leave the land and come to Bangkok to find work which pays more. But leaving their home and family behind creates further social problems.

So why not invest more in the industrial and financial sectors in provincial cities? Maybe the moving of certain government sectors to these cities too – like Birmingham and Manchester in the UK. This will redistribute wealth geographically and lessen the divide between rich and poor.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Investors do not like risks and uncertainty. It is the interests of ALL thais to solve in depth the issue of the Northern population. A crackdown will bring -at the best- only a temporary solution, because sooner or later the Thai 2 speed development consequences will re-surface. bangkokians have to invest in Northern Thailand: it is their well understood interest.

Investors will avoid Thailand until they have a certainty of stability.

A very interesting point Jerry. The two-speed development of Thailand is a major factor in this current crisis. Poor farmers and their children have to leave the land and come to Bangkok to find work which pays more. But leaving their home and family behind creates further social problems.

So why not invest more in the industrial and financial sectors in provincial cities? Maybe the moving of certain government sectors to these cities too – like Birmingham and Manchester in the UK. This will redistribute wealth geographically and lessen the divide between rich and poor.

I agree with you this is exactly what I have explained several times on this Forum. So one more time.....

I have already explained 4 or 5 times that Thailand need a "Town and Country Planning", that Thailand is exactly in the same situation than France 50 years ago and that French have succeeded to reduced their farming population from 50% of the population to 5%.

It must be a very large policy with infrastructure investments, delocalisation of some industries, modernisation of agriculture (subsidised until the Agriculture reaches International Standards), regrouping of small farmers in cooperative/ associations, banking support and subsidising for equipments of those cooperatives....

A fund for bad weather (drought, flood, storms...) in order to garantee an income, progressively converted in a mandatory insurance.

Prices of major agricultural products sustained in order to garantee a minimum income, until the internatrional Standards are met. (Subsidising Agriculture like we have done in USA or in Europe)

A revision of the Thai Budget is required with a large part allocated to this policy. At the end it will cost less than the migration of the northern population in Bangkokian suburban belt with all the costs associated with the mushrooming of the Megapole.

I have also stated than some Thai Academics well aware of the French policy were very impressed.

I have also stated that this must be accompanied by a Decentralisation (Political and Administrative with elected governors and local parliament- similar to the States in USA or the French regions....)

Edited April 28, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung