PM Abhisit Announces Next Election Will Be Held On Nov 14

[Jingthing]

Sorry for Abhisit if this ends his career (for now), but this is literally about saving Thailand and much bigger than any man, and he may just be the man who does it. He is still young as well ...

[gl9999]

My take. Brilliant move by Abhisit. Many reds want to say yes. Thaksin will say no for obvious reasons. Thus, the reds will say no and we will see a crackdown. Not my hope, but my prediction. We'll see.

Brilliant move? this is soooo embarrassing - all you yellows were saying 'no way' recently now it's a brilliant move? he is playing with people's live's and he will reap a bitter harvest - credit to the reds for forcing this - Abhisit was saying 'no way' and all that rubbish now he caves in.

What you're trying to do is turn a victory for the reds into a victory for the yellow 'no mandate' government - good try - but it doesn't stand up to scutiny.

Having said this I hope the reds take this offer - I don't like al of it - because some of the wording just re-enforces the 'elite' but we are 'where we are' and better to take this victory now and go home and prepare 'for government' - I do worry that they may not do this - which would be very foolish.

If they refuse the offer, might you finally question your firmly held belief that this movement is about the conditions of the poor and social justice?

I doubt it. Rabid Red Shirts see everything that the Red Shirt leadership does as 'good' while everything as Abhisit does as 'bad'. Sheep are like that.

[Neurath]

My take. Brilliant move by Abhisit. Many reds want to say yes. Thaksin will say no for obvious reasons. Thus, the reds will say no and we will see a crackdown. Not my hope, but my prediction. We'll see.

Well, the only real hope is that the prediction is wrong. If it's correct conflagration beckons.

[MisterBeetle]

This has been such a God dam_n waste of time... now why in the world couldn't Abhisit have said "six months" six weeks ago??!!! What has changed that he can cut the deal now, but could not cut the deal before??????

I am stunned by the IDIOCY of this entire episode.

er... it was the reds who refused further negotiations....

true, but try telling that to the redshirts!

[way2muchcoffee]

Sorry for Abhisit if this ends his career (for now), but this is literally about saving Thailand and much bigger than any man, and he may just be the man who does it. He is still young as well ...

It will depend on how this plays out. If all goes as planned he could, possibly, head the Democrat party in November. Alternately, another could step in. This isn't at all clear at the moment. There are too many variables.

Edited May 3, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[CockneyGit]

My take. Brilliant move by Abhisit. Many reds want to say yes. Thaksin will say no for obvious reasons. Thus, the reds will say no and we will see a crackdown. Not my hope, but my prediction. We'll see.

Unfortunately I tend to agree with you. I just can't see the Reds taking this guys word on faith and then sitting around for the next 6 months...

... we shall see. Hope I'm wrong!

[noahvail]

I agree, and your point is well taken. Perhaps they have learned from the great mistake that Dr Weng made when he out of hand, rejected an offer at the negotiation table. There was not only no democracy in that, there was not even consultation with the other red shirt leaders.

But a reasonable person would expect to see the proposals in writing, go through them, develop questions and rebuttals, and then go through back-channels to express their concerns. Most negotiations are not done under the spectre of the tv camera. All of this takes time, and no doubt the government, by NOT setting a required date of response, is giving the red shirts time to discuss and either agree or disagree. I feel Mr Abhisit did not do himself a service by not giving a drop-dead date (affirm or the offer drops dead at a certain date). A reasonable date might have been one or two weeks hence.

The carrot and the stick: the carrot is compromise, reconciliation, and candid addressing of the valid points that the red shirts brought up.

The stick is the IF - if they don't go along, meaning either continue negotiation or accept, then the big stick will come out.

I think Mr Abhisit has done a fine job of weathering the storms of criticism due to his **perceived** inaction. It will be interesting, again, to see how this all plays out.

The drop-dead date was announced earlier today. You have until Thursday or possibly Friday of this week, after the Coronation Day celebrations. We will disperse you at the end of the week.

Some compromise! Take it or else. Abhisit doesn't have a good trak record for keeping promises or for that matter tell the truth.

Quite a cmpromising technique he has. A lesson in How NOT TO win friends and influence enemies.

Khun James, I've highlighted in red the part I think you might have missed. It is not a take it or leave it, it never was. Back-room negotiations have been ongoing for some time, although with lesser players - who then report back to the big guys. Pay attention to those first 3 words - they are the key to all of this.

We have not seen a pinnacle of reasonableness from the red shirts, have we. We've had a fair amount of dissembling - in other words, the red shirts do not have a good track record for keeping promises or for that matter the truth.

Kind of cuts both ways, yes? We only need to listen to Dr Weng's outrageous statements during the first negotiation session (and his attempt to repeat them at the second session); or the ideas that "fake reds" did that (until it was shown that Mr Arisman was leading the "fake reds" - ooops). Take the statements that the so-called "black shirts" were not part of the red shirt group. Oooops - somebody forgot that Seh Daeng said from the beginning that those black shirt ronin warriors belonged to him.

I'm not trying to paint it one way. Fault can be found on both sides. Therefore, both sides compromising is the best way to end an horrendous situation with a minimal loss of face, and to this point, a relatively minimal loss of life, tragic as that is.

[jdinasia]

My take. Brilliant move by Abhisit. Many reds want to say yes. Thaksin will say no for obvious reasons. Thus, the reds will say no and we will see a crackdown. Not my hope, but my prediction. We'll see.

Brilliant move? this is soooo embarrassing - all you yellows were saying 'no way' recently now it's a brilliant move? he is playing with people's live's and he will reap a bitter harvest - credit to the reds for forcing this - Abhisit was saying 'no way' and all that rubbish now he caves in.

What you're trying to do is turn a victory for the reds into a victory for the yellow 'no mandate' government - good try - but it doesn't stand up to scutiny.

Having said this I hope the reds take this offer - I don't like al of it - because some of the wording just re-enforces the 'elite' but we are 'where we are' and better to take this victory now and go home and prepare 'for government' - I do worry that they may not do this - which would be very foolish.

I think you need to go back and read what you wrote when Abhisit chose to sit down and negotiate with the Red shirt terrorists leaders

If this gives Abhisit the time to rework the constitution with the help of ALL the people in Thailand AND prevents the PtP from changing the constitution unilaterally then ALL of this is worth it. Yes, that sadly includes the deaths that have occured because of the redshirt's illegal campaign of violence. The added benefits that we have a sane and operating government to get the budget passed and oversee the military shuffle are just gravy. It does give abhisit everything he said he wanted time for at the very first meeting with the red leaders though!

[deadsnoopy]

veen_NT

Weng on PM's proposal: It gives good signal but we have to listen to #redshirts across the country. via @adisaklive

Doesn't Weng mean "listen to #redshirts OUTSIDE OF the country". We all know there's only ONE redshirt's opinion that will count.

Guess he's "just getting on a plane" again and they can't get his answer yet.

The PM has taken over a month to come up with this "roadmap" full of "IFs". Why are the red shirts supposed to answer immediately?

Reds can either accept or get crushed

Take it or leave it

I fully support the crush

What crush? The one they've been talking about for the past 6 weeks?

[jcbangkok]

Sorry for Abhisit if this ends his career (for now), but this is literally about saving Thailand and much bigger than any man, and he may just be the man who does it. He is still young as well ...

I disagree. If the reds go home then they leave looking like utter morons because this is basically the same deal they were offered in the talks they walked away from. If they do not leave, it is clear they will now be forced to move out. Nobody but the people in the mob will shed a tear now if gov't enforces the law.

[Insight]

Also weighing on the reds is the chance of sending a positive message before the 5th May, in strong contrast to the current accusations they've recently been under fire for. If they don't make any compromises before then it could signal to the public further proof of what they've been accused of.

[deadsnoopy]

veen_NT

Weng on PM's proposal: It gives good signal but we have to listen to #redshirts across the country. via @adisaklive

Doesn't Weng mean "listen to #redshirts OUTSIDE OF the country". We all know there's only ONE redshirt's opinion that will count.

Guess he's "just getting on a plane" again and they can't get his answer yet.

The PM has taken over a month to come up with this "roadmap" full of "IFs". Why are the red shirts supposed to answer immediately?

Maybe because they said "all we want is democracy".

Now they've got it.

What's to think about?

Nobody has Democracy. The PM hasn't set a date for an election. He said elections can be held ...IF

There are some big issues on the "roadmap" and if they don't get fulfilled, some of which the Democrats and the Army are responsible to get them done, there won't be any election. Stupid people that don't understand the statement will believe that an election be held for sure. More educated people understand the true meaning of the statement. It gives the PM a perfect way out in November, saying there won't be elections because this hasn't yet been done or that hasn't yet been done.

[jcbangkok]

a reasonable person would expect to see the proposals in writing, go through them, develop questions and rebuttals, and then go through back-channels to express their concerns. Most negotiations are not done under the spectre of the tv camera.

I think you missed the part about there will be no more negotiating with red shirts ... they lost that option after showing their true color.

[hjvdhoef]

When they arrest the red shirts,then the same with the yellow shirts.All in the same prison.Then they can fight over there.Who left is the winner.

[snaggletooth]

Can't see the red leaders getting Amnesty the PM has been firm on this he wants people charged and investigations to continue.

I think Abhisit is the one that will be looking for amnesty. Remember the Democrats face dissolution and by the time the next election comes in November, Abhisit will likely be banned from politics for 5 years for election fraud.

The dissolution move by the electoral commission has nothing to do with election fraud. Read the news before you spout off your ill-informed opinion.

It's for not reporting a major campaign contribution. Not the same thing at all.

[JohnLeech]

This has been such a God dam_n waste of time... now why in the world couldn't Abhisit have said "six months" six weeks ago??!!! What has changed that he can cut the deal now, but could not cut the deal before??????

I am stunned by the IDIOCY of this entire episode.

er... it was the reds who refused further negotiations....

He did make a similar offer six weeks ago, but then as now it was all dependent on IF.

Now, as before, he has offered nothing but a way for him to get some breathing space for himself:

1) All parties concerned must join forces to uphold the monarchy.

No-one, at least publicly, has ever made this an issue (except Abhisit).

2) The government will carry out national reform to do away with injustice in the economic and political structures.

What exactly does he mean by "reform" - re-writing the electoral rules in line with the PAD, so that the majority of the population are effectively dis-enfranchised? This could mean anything.

3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.

"Constructive" for who - the government?

4) The government will set up an independent committee to investigate the deaths and injuries in clashes between troops, police and protesters on April 10, at Silom and on Vibhavadi Road.

"independent"??

5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few years, and try to solve the problems.

"to study ….. try to solve ….."

Totally meaningless.

Edited May 3, 2010 by JohnLeech

[deadsnoopy]

BANGKOK: --Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced Monday night on TV that he will hold the next election on November 14 IF if his roadmap to solve the political problems is not interrupted.

He said the road map has five elements as following:

That basically means, any interruption to any of the following points will result in NO ELECTIONS.

1) All parties concerned must join forces to uphold the monarchy.

I think all parties agree to this. But what if one party accuses the other of being anti-monarchy, as they have done in the past? This might already result in no elections.

2) The government will carry out national reform to do away with injustice in the economic and olitical structures.

As part of the process, the government will provide good social welfare, education, health etc, as well as other things to people suffering from other plights.

3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.

4) The government will set up an independent committee to investigate the deaths and injuries in clashes between troops, police and protesters on April 10, at Silom and on Vibhavadi Road.

What if the reforms don't get done in time? Thailand isn't the leader in getting things done on time, especially in politics. So ...meaning no elections?

No mention of opposition TV and radio stations and websites being unblocked? Okay, let's skip this one.

How long will the committee take to investigate? The committee on the yellow shirt demonstrations hasn't completed yet, and that's going on for 2 years now. So clearly, if the committee doesn't complete their investigations, there won't be an election?

5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few years, and try to solve the problems.

Okay, so the government will do a "study" that costs a few hundred million Baht and will tell everyone what everyone already knows. Thailand's political situation is worse than a Banana Circus.

There are some pretty big IF's in this roadmap. There's no date set for an election, guys. A lot of smoke, no solution, and a lot of people falling for it.

[millwall_fan]

The list of points apart form #1 which everyone can agree wiht, are a pious collection of platitiudes that could cover a whole host of hidden agendas...but, that said, this is a chance for peace. If there is no hidden agenda, the Red Shirts should grab it! Why, Why, Why though, couldn't he hold it in October...before Loi Kratong and before the high season kicks in.

[jcbangkok]

My take. Brilliant move by Abhisit. Many reds want to say yes. Thaksin will say no for obvious reasons. Thus, the reds will say no and we will see a crackdown. Not my hope, but my prediction. We'll see.

Unfortunately I tend to agree with you. I just can't see the Reds taking this guys word on faith and then sitting around for the next 6 months...

... we shall see. Hope I'm wrong!

Well the Reds in the mob cheered very loud on the news when shared with them. So, there will be few left to fight if Thaksin tells leaders not to take the deal. And we know the leaders are not willing to fight or risk their own lives but of course they will try to get some kind of amnesty but that is not going to happen now. The gov't has nothing to win by negotiating with them and much to lose at this point .. not to mention they have all lost their right to be heard.

[deadsnoopy]

Can't see the red leaders getting Amnesty the PM has been firm on this he wants people charged and investigations to continue.

I think Abhisit is the one that will be looking for amnesty. Remember the Democrats face dissolution and by the time the next election comes in November, Abhisit will likely be banned from politics for 5 years for election fraud.

The dissolution move by the electoral commission has nothing to do with election fraud. Read the news before you spout off your ill-informed opinion.

It's for not reporting a major campaign contribution. Not the same thing at all.

I did read the issue, and it is electoral fraud. In the last election, the Democrats received 259 million Baht in illegal donations, that they then used in the election. Abhisit was the chairman of the Democrats at the time the donations were received, so he knew everything about it. That's why the Democrats face dissolution and Abhisit faces a 5 year ban from politics. There are the facts, just for you

[noahvail]

a reasonable person would expect to see the proposals in writing, go through them, develop questions and rebuttals, and then go through back-channels to express their concerns. Most negotiations are not done under the spectre of the tv camera.

I think you missed the part about there will be no more negotiating with red shirts ... they lost that option after showing their true color.

I will suggest that you show a somewhat limited knowledge of the process of negotiation. Public posturing is just that: posturing. It's part of negotiating. Do you think that Mr Abhisit went on the air to tell the public his proposal without first notifying the red shirt leaders through intermediaries? In that way, insanity lies. And the PM is far from being insane. He's showed himself to be a skilled negotiator - and a patient one - resulting in a small number of deaths (though it can be argued that one is one too many). The other option was to crush the rebellion, at the cost of many thousands of lives. Negotiations saved many, many lives. That's what defines a successful negotiation in this kind of situation.

Cut through the rhetoric, and look behind the glass tube into what has taken place outside the view of the public.

[bangkokrick]

Reply to deadsnoopy.

Thailand has had democracy for many years, the basis being 'one man one vote'. Just because some people choose to sell their right to democracy to the highest bidder is not the fault of democracy. It is the fault of the seller of their right of a democratic vote.

Cheers, Rick

[JohnLeech]

This sounds very nice and finally unlock the situation. Also it makes really govt look like the good guys willing to compromise while the other side... Reds would be crazy to refuse after the bad days they had. However, with terrorists charges threatening and no mention of amnesty in his 5 points program, they might ask to have amnesty added as a number 6 prior to give in.

Also in the detail, needs to get all banned politicians out of the influencing. that means not just thaksin but newin and suthep for starts.

You mean he should resign - without Newin he has no government and is no longer the PM.

[deadsnoopy]

a reasonable person would expect to see the proposals in writing, go through them, develop questions and rebuttals, and then go through back-channels to express their concerns. Most negotiations are not done under the spectre of the tv camera.

I think you missed the part about there will be no more negotiating with red shirts ... they lost that option after showing their true color.

Says who? You? Abhisit clearly is negotiating. You understand nothing about how politics work, my friend. Behind the scenes they're drinking coffee and having dinner together while discussing things. It's just a "show" for the "little people".

[gl9999]

Nobody has Democracy. The PM hasn't set a date for an election. He said elections can be held ...IF

There are some big issues on the "roadmap" and if they don't get fulfilled, some of which the Democrats and the Army are responsible to get them done, there won't be any election. Stupid people that don't understand the statement will believe that an election be held for sure. More educated people understand the true meaning of the statement. It gives the PM a perfect way out in November, saying there won't be elections because this hasn't yet been done or that hasn't yet been done.

This plan of PM Abhisit's is a very fair compromise. If the Red Shirt leaders aren't narrow minded like you are and accept it, everyone wins.

However a rejection gives PM Abhisit the excuse to send the Army in. And this time, he can say he tried everything to make peace but the Red Shirts were being unreasonable. Perhaps that is the plan, knowing Thaksin, knowing Thaksin's dogs and knowing how they think and what kind of people they are. Have them reject a perfectly fair deal so they can send the tanks and troops in to crack heads. I for one won't shed one tear if that happens and some Red Shirts turn into red goo.

[deadsnoopy]

Reply to deadsnoopy.

Thailand has had democracy for many years, the basis being 'one man one vote'. Just because some people choose to sell their right to democracy to the highest bidder is not the fault of democracy. It is the fault of the seller of their right of a democratic vote.

Cheers, Rick

I keep reading about the "vote buying". How sure are you anyways that people will vote for this or that candidate after receiving the money? Nobody in Thailand follows you to the ballot box when you cast your vote. On the contrary, you're required to go alone. So I could take 500 Baht from the chicken party and tell them I'll vote for them, then vote for the peanuts party and nobody would know.

Sounds plausible?

[Neurath]

Nobody has Democracy. The PM hasn't set a date for an election. He said elections can be held ...IF

There are some big issues on the "roadmap" and if they don't get fulfilled, some of which the Democrats and the Army are responsible to get them done, there won't be any election. Stupid people that don't understand the statement will believe that an election be held for sure. More educated people understand the true meaning of the statement. It gives the PM a perfect way out in November, saying there won't be elections because this hasn't yet been done or that hasn't yet been done.

IF:

If large parts of the city (Bangkok and elsewhere) are under (armed) occupation by non-state forces.

If large scale political violence makes campaigning impossible (deaths of candidates)

If there are assassination of Election Commission officials.

If a solar flare doesn't destroy the earth.

hel_l, there are lots of them and rightly so.

There is now an election on the table 12 months sooner than it constitutionally must be held. In November. I six months. Run to win it and stop coming up with excuses on why it shouldn't be held. Why is that so hard to accept? It's a sin to make the best the enemy of the better.

[snaggletooth]

3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.

By banning the opposition TV and radio channels? How can there be fair elections under such circumstances?

If mobs chase people in train station and airports in Khon Kaen

How can there be fair elections.

yes and when mobs demand to search private vehicles through intimidation, how do you think there will be free and fair elections back in the Red's home territory. If this is the way they deal with problems, through thuggery and intimidation, what to you think is going to happen at the polls in Isaan and the North. Do you think anybody would dare vote for another party than the ones the reds support.

These people will be a thorn in Thailand's side for years to come after this and they will run ramshackle over the people in their regions, making them cowtow to their demands. Mark my words. Once they've had a taste for this type of thuggish power, what's to stop them taking additional steps later, like extra judicial killings of rival politicians, barring rival politicians from campaigning in their regions.

Watch and see Snoopy.

[trevorg]

I have been following the recent events, as a recent 'ex-pat' living in Thailand, and I am not sure of the players, their allegiances or the history.

I live in Ta Phraya (by the Cambodian border - 50km north of Aranya Phratet), (town pop 15,000, amphur pop 45,000) but have had to go to hospital in Pattaya recently (6 times), and went to the British Embassy for an Affirmation to Marry, 2 weeks ago. I haven't witnessed any violent protests in any of these places. I'm not doubting that they haven't happened!

However, here in 'sleepy' Ta Phraya, there are town meetings, not about what colour one should support, but how the teachers and education system, and parents should deal with educating the kids, who are on their 6,7,8 week holiday, who have had the bloodshed pushed in their faces, and their parents talking about it, here in the 'country' there is no yellows, no reds, there are people who beieve that they benefited during Thaksins premiership, but some are waivering, they are not reds, but they want democracy!

I'm quite proud that where I've landed up is still about looking after your friends and neighbours, and worrying about what your children are going to learn on the first day of school in the next couple of weeks!

By the way, November 14th is both my wife's birthday and our first wedding Anniversary - so 'election' party at mine! Orange shirts will be acceptable!

Sorry if I wandered off the direct topic - but it's a forum, so I shared!

[gl9999]

Reply to deadsnoopy.

Thailand has had democracy for many years, the basis being 'one man one vote'. Just because some people choose to sell their right to democracy to the highest bidder is not the fault of democracy. It is the fault of the seller of their right of a democratic vote.

Cheers, Rick

I keep reading about the "vote buying". How sure are you anyways that people will vote for this or that candidate after receiving the money? Nobody in Thailand follows you to the ballot box when you cast your vote. On the contrary, you're required to go alone. So I could take 500 Baht from the chicken party and tell them I'll vote for them, then vote for the peanuts party and nobody would know.

Sounds plausible?

OH please! Stop making excuses. At very least, just try pretend to deny that votes were bought rather then making stupid excuses.