Hung Parliament Sends Uk Pound Crashing...!

[thaibeachlovers]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but, a so called Lib/Lab pact STILL wont result in a majority government(?)

Needed: 326

Labour: 258

Lib Dem: 57

Total: 315

Even adding the seats of the major "Mickey Mouse" parties such as SNP and Plaid Cymru the total is still short by 2

Either a courtship with "A N Other" parties or a minority government isnt very good news for the Pound i wouldnt think

Penkoprod

Correct, which is probably why the Lib Dems went with the Tories in the end. No point getting a lot of concessions if you can't get a vote through.

In the end it's all about self interest.

[thaibeachlovers]

It does not matter who Clegg lines up with it will not improve the exchange rates especially where the baht is concerned.

Britain produces very little in the way of exports but imports an astronomical amount of goods. Pick up any article in a British shop and see where it was made!

The welfare payments now exceed the total amount of the nation's income tax.

Some families are 3rd and 4th generation benefit recipients. They are content to watch TV all day and surf the internet. Were they to be found jobs they would be incapable of getting up to go and do them. That's why companies are happy to employ Eastern Europeans who still have a work ethic.

Housing is so expensive that rent and council tax make many folk worse off financially if they were to find a job on the minimum wage which many employers refuse to exceed.

We are still sending out millions in overseas aid.

Apprenticeships and training schemes for our youngsters are practically non existent.

Our cities are awash with unemployable third world immigrants who need to be taken care of financially. Many of whom speak very little English, that's why benefit offices display notices in a multitude of languages.

We have 6 million public employees who the tax payer has to pay for along with their pensions.

There is a steady stream of professionals and tradesmen quitting the UK to seek a new life overseas, taking their expertise and life savings with them. They are doing so because they hate what the UK is becoming and wish to get away from the high levels of crime, tax and drunken thuggery.

None of the political parties have a clue as to how to tackle these problems so don't expect to get more baht for your pound unless the Thai economy collapses.

Good post.

While I was working in the UK I was constantly asked if I was going to retire there, which always reduced me to hysterical laughter. Never been in a country so destroyed by it's own government!

Whenever I suggested to a Brit that the solution to some of their problems might be to force unemployed in the north to go work in the south, where all the jobs are, I got the answer that it was the RIGHT of the unemployed to stay in their homes and receive benefits. Never mind that the actual workers were moving from all around the world. Unbelievable.

Labour probably only got as many votes as it did because the voters knew that the Tories will ( probably ) cut their benefits if they don't work.

I'm still waiting for the end of such PC benefits as child benefit for teenage single parents, which has had such a catastrophic effect on society, and unfortunately will probably still be waiting in another 20 years. Just how bad does it have to get before sanity prevails?

Edited May 12, 2010 by thaibeachlovers

[churchill]

Lib Dem - CON pact

[roamer]

Lib Dem - CON pact

as we can see its gone down well in Europe.

Le Soir, Belgium.

a newspaper based in Brussels, home of the EU, expressed reservations at the Thatcherite political views of William Hague, the new Foreign Secretary, who the paper described as “an intellectual with sardonic humour and advanced baldness”.

La Repubblica, Italy.

“The new government has no precedent in recent British history. In fact it is so unusual that many people consider it unnatural. "

La Stampa

"...the new pact is against nature, an accord reached between two political forces so far apart from each other – on Europe, on immigration, on the electoral system, on welfare – that it is a sticking plaster that cannot hide the deep wounds of a bipartisan system which have been further aggravated by the economic crisis.”

Der Spiegel

”There are so many predetermined areas of possible conflict that the first fight between the coalition partners cannot be too far off. Especially because the country is in need of restructuring,”

[billythefish]

A hung parliament, what on earth is everyone getting so riled about, it is the best thing to happen to the UK, hang the fuc_king lot of them from the highest tree! and hang the house of lords while they on it!

[Gambles]

The rainbow coalition or Lib Lab pact would include 258 Labour MP's, 57 Lib Dem MP's, 3 SDLP MP's ( these are the Irish nationalists you refer to, these 3 MP's always take their seats unlike the 5 Sinn Fein Mp's who do not take their seats), Naomi Long the Alliance party MP a non sectarian from Ireland, Caroline Lucas the green MP and then 3 Plaid Cymru MP's.

All this adds up to 323 and does not include the SNP who might or might not be brought in, and gives a majority in the parliament this government would not last long but would have enough time to force through electoral reform. With the change to PR it would mean that the UK would NEVER again have another right wing government there would never be another tory PM, I for one am praying for this.

Noel,

You're a bit out of place on this thread - you actually do know what you're talking about!

Just to add some background the SDLP usually take the Labour whip and therefore can be considered as close to Labour without being Labour - they wouldn't thank me for saying it but in practical terms they're almost a Northern Irish Labour Party

The Unionists on the other hand have an almost equally close with the party formerly known as the Conservative & Unionist Party. It's strethcing the point (but not by much) to say that in effect Labour have 261 and Cons have 314

The 6 SNP are almost begging to join the Lib-Lab coaltion and PC are expected to want in too - plus the independent parties makes well over 330 natural bedfellows versus 314 in the Tory/Unionist camp out of 655 active seats, which means that as Sinn Fein never attend 328 is the effective majority

This may be the most logical outcome for now and a good result for those who didn't want either Cameron or Brown!

The maths are correct but the reality is that it can only ever be a very short lived government and forcing through any type of electoral reform would be extremely difficult, quite a few Labour MPs not happy about this either, some of them voicing the opinion that they would be better off in opposition until either a Lib/Con coalition or minority Tory goverment collapses in flames. IMHO they may be right.

Either way I think sterling is gonna go west for a while

Thanks, Roamer. Very good post.

[tigerfish]

best thing to happen yet! get rid of all the pc brigade and maybe just maybe my country will return to some short of normallity.

sick and tired of us bending over backwards, and joe average gets it both barrels.

close all borders, and send them back from where they came from!

[F1fanatic]

best thing to happen yet! get rid of all the pc brigade and maybe just maybe my country will return to some short of normallity.

sick and tired of us bending over backwards, and joe average gets it both barrels.

close all borders, and send them back from where they came from!

Ummm, I think a lot of Thai's think the same way about us.....

[tigerfish]

best thing to happen yet! get rid of all the pc brigade and maybe just maybe my country will return to some short of normallity.

sick and tired of us bending over backwards, and joe average gets it both barrels.

close all borders, and send them back from where they came from!

Ummm, I think a lot of Thai's think the same way about us.....

the difference is we dont need them!

[StreetCowboy]

best thing to happen yet! get rid of all the pc brigade and maybe just maybe my country will return to some short of normallity.

sick and tired of us bending over backwards, and joe average gets it both barrels.

close all borders, and send them back from where they came from!

Ummm, I think a lot of Thai's think the same way about us.....

the difference is we dont need them!

I doubt I would live in Thailand if there were no Thais here.

I really struggled to interpret Tigerfish' comment about bending over backwards and both barrels; I looked in the Communities Forum to see if there was anything about it under yoga, or the gay forum, but still don't understand.

And as for sending the PC brigade back where they came from; I think they came from all around us - like mould. It just appears from nowhere, you can't keep it out. All you can do is wash between your toes and make sure that it doesn't affect you personally.

So anyway, clarification would be appreciated. But live and let live, and I doubt I shall suffer for want of understanding the above.

Trying to tack a bit closer to topic:

When we refer to the pound crashing, which currency should we compare it to? Baht? Dollar? Gold? Dong? Yuan? Mars Bar?

Better a hung parliament than a hanged parliament, anyway, though others may differ

SC

[citizen33]

Probably the topic of this thread was superceded by that of the closed thread on whether there would be a 'bounce' under a Tory Prime Minister. While not optimistic about the months ahead, I was expecting a modest short-term gain for the pound against the baht. However, there is no sign of this yet and in fact the pound has fallen slightly over the last couple of days. Have some people been too optimistic about the market reaction?

[Gambles]

Probably the topic of this thread was superceded by that of the closed thread on whether there would be a 'bounce' under a Tory Prime Minister. While not optimistic about the months ahead, I was expecting a modest short-term gain for the pound against the baht. However, there is no sign of this yet and in fact the pound has fallen slightly over the last couple of days. Have some people been too optimistic about the market reaction?

it's one of those sobering up and "OMG what have I done???" moments

[thaibeachlovers]

Probably the topic of this thread was superceded by that of the closed thread on whether there would be a 'bounce' under a Tory Prime Minister. While not optimistic about the months ahead, I was expecting a modest short-term gain for the pound against the baht. However, there is no sign of this yet and in fact the pound has fallen slightly over the last couple of days. Have some people been too optimistic about the market reaction?

It would appear so. If a stable government with a few "sensible" economic policies can't elevate the pound over 47, even while Bangkok dissapears up it's own a**hole, what hope is there for a better rate anytime soon? ( Perhaps when the hotel occupancy rate is 3%. ).

Perhaps it's all just a Glenn Beck conspiracy- I'm beginning to think he's right!

[thaibeachlovers]

best thing to happen yet! get rid of all the pc brigade and maybe just maybe my country will return to some short of normallity.

sick and tired of us bending over backwards, and joe average gets it both barrels.

close all borders, and send them back from where they came from!

Ummm, I think a lot of Thai's think the same way about us.....

the difference is we dont need them!

I doubt I would live in Thailand if there were no Thais here.

I really struggled to interpret Tigerfish' comment about bending over backwards and both barrels; I looked in the Communities Forum to see if there was anything about it under yoga, or the gay forum, but still don't understand.

And as for sending the PC brigade back where they came from; I think they came from all around us - like mould. It just appears from nowhere, you can't keep it out. All you can do is wash between your toes and make sure that it doesn't affect you personally.

So anyway, clarification would be appreciated. But live and let live, and I doubt I shall suffer for want of understanding the above.

Trying to tack a bit closer to topic:

When we refer to the pound crashing, which currency should we compare it to? Baht? Dollar? Gold? Dong? Yuan? Mars Bar?

Better a hung parliament than a hanged parliament, anyway, though others may differ

SC

I hope you're being ironic!

Just in case you really didn't get it, he wasn't saying send the PC brigade back, just the illegal immigrants. Incidentally, how big a deficit will it take to stop borrowing money to pay illegals benefits? ( I know, I know- they'll still be paying illegals benefits as long as there is a single person working that they can tax to bankrupcy. )

[sarahsbloke]

While UK interest rates are 0.5 - 1 percent nobody will be investing in the pound.

Nothing to do with stable/unstable government, all to do with investing.

[kevozman1]

I do not think that the current exchange rates should effect the ordinary

chap living here or on holiday too much. Its cheap anyway, just means you

will not be getting such as bargain as before.

I am shocked that the baht has held up so well, I thought it would be a

bit of a slide same as the £. Maybe £1 - 70baht is over forever. Loved

those times in Thailand, change up a grand or two and you had a wod

of cash which seemed to go on forever.

[MarkyM3]

Sarahsbloke is right, investors will not hold currency yielding such low rates on the money markets. In the short-term (next 6-12 months at least), the consensus amongst economists seems to be that interest rates will need to remain low to protect the fragile recovery, especially in the light of the serious fiscal (i.e. public spending) tightening that is going to happen now that the UK has a new government. Sterling will be allowed to weaken if necessary.

Personally, I am glad the "rainbow coalition" never made it past first post. Asides from disagreeing with their politics (no credible deficit reduction plan, immigration etc.), being held to ransom by minority parties doesn't appeal to me.

Cheers

Edited May 14, 2010 by MarkyM3

[jasonr3255]

and they'll spend more time debating the reform of the voting system thn how to dig the country out of its hole.

I admire your faith. My guess is more time is being spent divvying up the grace and favour apartments and free ministerial transport issue.

46.56 need I SAY ANYMORE. all those who would like to participate in the dive meet me at the Hard Rock Hotel at 9am Sunday. Tandom dives welcome....lol

[4.real]

I have spent most of my time here since 1995 when the baht was pinned at 38 to pound..

Petrol was 11baht a liter, hotels were inexpensive [bungalow on Koh samuii by the beach for 100 b a night and travel around the island 10 baht any distance].Food was inexpensive...

excellent hotel room in Pattaya for 400 baht a night.Buffet breakfast 70 baht

It is almost as expensive now to live here as it is to live in london.

[BlackArtemis]

I have spent most of my time here since 1995 when the baht was pinned at 38 to pound..

Petrol was 11baht a liter, hotels were inexpensive [bungalow on Koh samuii by the beach for 100 b a night and travel around the island 10 baht any distance].Food was inexpensive...

excellent hotel room in Pattaya for 400 baht a night.Buffet breakfast 70 baht

It is almost as expensive now to live here as it is to live in london.

Really? Because the shittiest chain motels in the US still cost $50-60, or 1500+ Baht.

My 4 story town house in the old city of Chiang Mai cost me $300 USD a month with utilities. In my area a one bedroom apartment is $800/month

A plate of Thai food averages $11-14 here in the US, a 20oz bottle of coke costs $1.59

Medical insurance is $400 a month for the two of us and cars are $2000 a year.

But good Lord! $2.50 for a buffet breakfast and $15 to stay at a beach resort is something I'm glad I don't have to pay!

[Gambles]

While UK interest rates are 0.5 - 1 percent nobody will be investing in the pound.

Nothing to do with stable/unstable government, all to do with investing.

actually, lots of places have negligible interest rates right now but it's more to do with the long run prospects for the valuation of the currency which are currently totally dominated by relative indebtedness

Unindebted currencies look way stronger than indebted ones. What is happening is NOT a Baht phonomenon - it's a global divergence between indebtedness and solvency

BAHT IS actually underperforming other relatively unindebted currencies because, presumably, of the political risk that is already priced in there

(apologies for broken record tendencies but this really is the basis of understanding where we're at)

[thaibeachlovers]

While UK interest rates are 0.5 - 1 percent nobody will be investing in the pound.

Nothing to do with stable/unstable government, all to do with investing.

actually, lots of places have negligible interest rates right now but it's more to do with the long run prospects for the valuation of the currency which are currently totally dominated by relative indebtedness

Unindebted currencies look way stronger than indebted ones. What is happening is NOT a Baht phonomenon - it's a global divergence between indebtedness and solvency

BAHT IS actually underperforming other relatively unindebted currencies because, presumably, of the political risk that is already priced in there

(apologies for broken record tendencies but this really is the basis of understanding where we're at)

Not disputing anything you've written, but regardless, if the baht appreciates a lot once the political troubles are over, the tourism industry is looking at 3% occupancy rates and Pattaya, Patong beach et al will be ghost towns. Given that the tourist sector is 6% of Thai GDP and employs vast numbers of Thais, directly and indirectly can they afford to allow the baht to appreciate significantly?

Please don't tell me that the Chinese and Indians will make up for the loss of farangs. In my experience they stay in Chinese owned hotels and only buy from certain department stores. Never seen them sitting in a bar beer or GoGo, and given where the profits/ bribes from those go, I doubt that anything killing the golden goose will be allowed.

Or perhaps the entire farang bar scene will move to Cambodia, in which case who cares about LOS?

[tw25rw]

Not disputing anything you've written, but regardless, if the baht appreciates a lot once the political troubles are over, the tourism industry is looking at 3% occupancy rates and Pattaya, Patong beach et al will be ghost towns. Given that the tourist sector is 6% of Thai GDP and employs vast numbers of Thais, directly and indirectly can they afford to allow the baht to appreciate significantly?

Please don't tell me that the Chinese and Indians will make up for the loss of farangs. In my experience they stay in Chinese owned hotels and only buy from certain department stores. Never seen them sitting in a bar beer or GoGo, and given where the profits/ bribes from those go, I doubt that anything killing the golden goose will be allowed.

Or perhaps the entire farang bar scene will move to Cambodia, in which case who cares about LOS?

The $Aus is doing pretty well so I expect Patong and Khaosan to fair relatively well..

[cdnvic]

We now have this running in the news forum.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/UK-Pound-Col...ht-t343667.html