What Exactly Would Civil War Mean?

[imjustagirl]

Call me ignorant (wont be the first time...) but i have no idea what a civil war situation would mean in relation to myself and other non Thai friends living here....would we be chucked out? Would we be turned upon? At the moment Samui seems like another planet compared to whats going on in Bangkok....Can anyone break down what a civil war would mean to a farang female middle income friendly person who lives a life that is pretty trouble free and is friendly with all???

I dont want to leave......

[chrisll]

we would be chucked out hopefully or eaten alive.

[nam-thip]

You don't want to leave?

If civil war breaks out you might have no say in the matter.

I just hope you never joined the ranks of the foolish and threw your hard earned cash into wasteful purchases like land and houses.

Rent everything has been my motto in Thailand that way there's no pain in having to leave.

[HalfSquat]

If we stayed what side would we farangs have to fight on?

[daoyai]

I don't think anyone really knows what form a civil war would take here, region against region, political infighting, class warfare,(?) my guess would be an insurgency something like what is happening in the south, with many non-paricipants., it could get very ugly if army and police units allign themslves regionally and fight against other units, that would resemble the American civil war of the 1860s. One thing that is sure is things will never be the same.

[mommysboy]

Everybody is in more danger, but basically your situation seems quite safe.

I live in Bangkok, although I still feel safe, my life is now severely restricted and my income may plummet, this is because the problems are escalating district to district.

If this were to happen on a national level then yes you have a problem too.

Your Government's advice is to leave I think. But if it were me I'd stay but definitely have a contingency plan (an escape route to Malaysia for instance).

[tijnebijn]

Don't think it will ever materialize , I mean full scape civil war .

I do expect some more assassinations , probably on both sides ,

if not time will get rid of some old behind the scenes third hands , which eventually

will take the pressure down .

But you never know , some developments as communists and renegade soldiers openly

taking part in this mess is disturbing at the least , but imho don't think it will come to civil war .

[hawthorne]

I do not think anyone enjoys a civil war except the criminals. If you can only imagine living in a lawless society that is what it would be like. No police in many areas and the only justice system is self preservation. All forms of crime skyrocket.

No longer the LOS if civil war breaks out and the outcome will probably be some form of a socialist/communist state.

That said I do not believe a civil war is on the way. Things will be sorted out in the usual Thai fashion and live will go on as usual.

No worries.

[toptuan]

No police in many areas and the only justice system is self preservation.

Gosh, that sounds like most of non-Bangkok-Thailand after 6 p.m. All our upcountry police go home after normal business hours. What would be so different?

Edited May 16, 2010 by toptuan

[Soutpeel]

If a civil war does materialise, might be a good opportunity for Farangs to grab their bit of Thailand and call it Farangland

There are enough Ex-SAS and Ex-Special forces guys around Pattaya & Bangkok to form a Farang Militia (obviously Thai Volunteer police would be prohibited from joining) and they could procure a Farang homeland with Pattaya as a capital.

[ExpatJ]

Don't think it will ever materialize , I mean full scape civil war .

I do expect some more assassinations , probably on both sides ,

if not time will get rid of some old behind the scenes third hands , which eventually

will take the pressure down .

But you never know , some developments as communists and renegade soldiers openly

taking part in this mess is disturbing at the least , but imho don't think it will come to civil war .

Agreed, there wont be a full civil war -, a few skirmishes, possibly a military coup - no way anyone will start ejecting foreigners in anycase.

If you have cash assets- the thai stock exhcange is going to be full of rich pickings soon, will be alot of people making alot of money on the thai SET.

[jubby]

I do not think anyone enjoys a civil war except the criminals. If you can only imagine living in a lawless society that is what it would be like. No police in many areas and the only justice system is self preservation. All forms of crime skyrocket.

No longer the LOS if civil war breaks out and the outcome will probably be some form of a socialist/communist state.

That said I do not believe a civil war is on the way. Things will be sorted out in the usual Thai fashion and live will go on as usual.

No worries.

Thats the way I see it too Hawthorne.

Its not exactly a clash of Ideologies, atleast not with the vast majority of people. Its more about power and money. I doubt it'll be the last time.

How many Coups has this country had in recent memory

As for the Police, they are an interesting concept here.

[sehdaeng]

If a civil war does materialise, might be a good opportunity for Farangs to grab their bit of Thailand and call it Farangland

There are enough Ex-SAS and Ex-Special forces guys around Pattaya & Bangkok to form a Farang Militia (obviously Thai Volunteer police would be prohibited from joining) and they could procure a Farang homeland with Pattaya as a capital.

I SECOND that!!!!!!

[jackdawson]

I just hope you never joined the ranks of the foolish and threw your hard earned cash into wasteful purchases like land and houses.

god i wish i had said that !

[imjustagirl]

no foolish purchases....escape is easy if i have to, but really dont want to. I hope the majority of comments on here are right and that it will blow over usual thai style. I love you thailand and dont want to go, please end this and no more deaths of your wonderful people....

[lovelomsak]

Donot worry life will go back to normality in the near future.

[gpdjohn]

No police in many areas and the only justice system is self preservation.

Gosh, that sounds like most of non-Bangkok-Thailand after 6 p.m. All our upcountry police go home after normal business hours. What would be so different?

Heck, I haven't seen one of those in like 6 months almost. What's a "police" ?

[Forethat]

Personally, I fear my local noodle stand pak soi would shut down business. If that happens I would, to put it frank, get seriously pissed off.

[Briggsy]

Probably the best comparison would be Cambo when the separate factions of the army (Ranariddh vs Hun Sen) turned on each other in 1997.

Farangs who were stupid to drive, ride or walk around Phnom Penh were often treated badly by the troops at the checkpoints. Beaten, robbed, relieved of their vehicle. When law and order completely break down, it's the law of the jungle and the people with the guns grab what they can. I don't recall any reports of summary executions of farangs during that period though.

[jubby]

Probably the best comparison would be Cambo when the separate factions of the army (Ranariddh vs Hun Sen) turned on each other in 1997.

Farangs who were stupid to drive, ride or walk around Phnom Penh were often treated badly by the troops at the checkpoints. Beaten, robbed, relieved of their vehicle. When law and order completely break down, it's the law of the jungle and the people with the guns grab what they can. I don't recall any reports of summary executions of farangs during that period though.

OK, thats the worst scenario. We'd all be best making our way to the nearest border if that happens but seriously, is anyone feeling any ' tension' at all anywhere other than a few places in central bangkok ?. I seems to be business as usual in 99.98% of the country.

I was sat with 3 BIB and 2 teachers a couple of days ago. They were doing what they do best, having sanuk and downing whiskey or wine coolers for the ladies. One other guy had a red shirt with a picture of MR T on it. he was quite a well to do farmer on the next table , not a poor peasant by anystandards, sat with his family. everyone having fun , absolutely no talk of colours , except for the required conversation about Football Colours.

And as for Knoodle stands closing down. if it does go pear shaped, they're sure to stop for Lunch. Its still Thailand Folks.

Edited May 16, 2010 by jubby

[canuckamuck]

Civil war, a revolution, or a coup are all possible outcomes. I think the third is more likely because a civil war usually requires distinct regional animosity and although Thailand is diverse and has many people groups, as a whole they are very much the same and there is a strong national identity. A revolution will require the Thais to do things that are currently unthinkable and unmentionable. A revolution could occur if the anger was directed against the ruling class and the military or police sided with the people. This is something that has happened in other feudal societies in the past. Ask the French.

I think in a situation where there was a coup or a revolution, a serious complication would be the southern provinces would seize the opportunity to secede from the nation and create there own Islamic state. This would create a two front war for the Bangkok central Thai faction.

One thing I am concerned about is if there was protracted fighting it would take the form of cowardly guerrilla and terrorist style warfare, instead of conventional fighting; this would turn Thailand into another Iraq or Beirut. This sort of thing is hard to recover from. If this occurs, Thailand will quickly become a failed state. We all know that Thais aren't big on fighting fair.

A coup is obviously Thailand's go to solution for political trouble, they are the world leaders in this activity. I think the most likely outcome would be a coup, but we all know that this will only postpone the trouble and we will all be going through this again in a year or two.

What any of this means to foreigners in the country is hard to guess. Fortunately we are not former occupiers of this country and we have never had any real say in what has shaped the political environment, so as a whole there is unlikely to be much anger directed towards foreigners. But we should try to be gentle as doves and wise as serpents. Keep your head down and your butt covered and you should be fine.

[Forethat]

In my opinion, an ugly but possible scenario is if the reds run out of supplies and start looting the stores and supermarkets in the area for food and supplies. If that happens, it wouldn't take much before the looting spreads outside the protestors zone, and the need for supplies is likely to transform in to cravings for other stuff easily accessible in stores when there's no policing being done. I can only imagine what it would be like trying to control a couple of hundred thousand Thais when they are moving in for a brand new flat screen TV and laptop, not to mention the latest mobile phone.

And as for Knoodle stands closing down. if it does go pear shaped, they're sure to stop for Lunch. Its still Thailand Folks.

There is a God!

[draggons]

Pattaya'll be safe as houses. Must be 90% of ex SAS reg members living there, they'll keep everyone safe

[soloman]

If the Government doesn't take effective and swift action, I predict a short civil war within a week when all of the good Bangkok citizens will rise up and kick the bejeesus outta the redskunks.

[norwayeagle]

If a civil war does materialise, might be a good opportunity for Farangs to grab their bit of Thailand and call it Farangland

There are enough Ex-SAS and Ex-Special forces guys around Pattaya & Bangkok to form a Farang Militia (obviously Thai Volunteer police would be prohibited from joining) and they could procure a Farang homeland with Pattaya as a capital.

Joker you are